[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|保险Ⅱ [Table_Title] 【 广 发 非 银 & 海 外 】 中 国 财 险 （02328.HK） 海外财险公司的估值及中国财险 ROE 拆解 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： （除特别注明外，报告货币为人民币） 从全球龙头财险公司的经验看，（1）PB 估值水平和 ROE 之间具备显 著的正相关性，如前进保险的 ROE 从 2015 年的 17.8%提升至 2018 年的 26.5%，PB 从 2.1X 提升至 3X，好事达 ROE 从 2015 年的 10.6% 提升至 2019 年的 21.7%，PB 估值从 1.07X 提升至 1.35X，且短期的 ROE 下降不会影响估值中枢水平；（2）海外龙头财险公司近年来大部 分 ROE 在两位数以上，且对应 PB 在 1X 以上；（3）ROE 的变化受保 费收入增速、承保利润和投资的影响。（报告汇率 HKD/CNY=0.925） 展望中国财险 24-26 年 ROE 为 11.3%-12%。(1)保费预期：车险方面， 机动车保有量稳定增长，而人保有望凭借品牌和服务优势实现承保数 量的提升，另外短期看报行 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [3]. Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations with its advanced repair orders, doubling the total compared to last year, with a total of 460 billion yuan in contracts signed for June-July 2024, including 137 billion yuan for high-speed trains [1]. - A new wave of major maintenance cycles for rail transit is underway, with the company’s repair income expected to enter a definitive upward phase as high-speed trains enter the fifth-level repair cycle [1]. - Higher profit margins and shorter delivery cycles in the maintenance business are expected to enhance the company's earnings flexibility, with significant growth in high-level repair and major repair orders anticipated [1]. - Profit forecasts indicate that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 13.8 billion yuan, 15.6 billion yuan, and 17.1 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively, with a target PE valuation of 18x for A-shares, corresponding to a fair value of 8.67 yuan per share [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 222.94 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 234.26 billion yuan in 2023 and further growth to 262.17 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 11.9% [2]. - The company's net profit for 2022 was 11.65 billion yuan, with an expected increase to 13.82 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18% growth rate [2]. - The report indicates an EBITDA of 20.47 billion yuan for 2022, projected to grow to 24.17 billion yuan in 2024 [2].

请注意，耿鹏智,尉凯旋并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员 会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Page] 公司深度研究|专业工程 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 中钢国际（000928.SZ） 国际化提速叠加手握低碳冶金核心技术，论中钢国际进阶之路 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 冶金工程空间测算：2023 年全球冶金工程市场规模超 6000 亿元。按 照下游钢铁厂资本开支估算冶金工程市场规模，2023 年国内钢铁企业 资本开支总和 1827 亿元，单吨钢铁产量对应资本开支 179 元；海外 钢铁企业资本开支约合人民币 4723 亿元，单吨钢铁产量对应资本开支 541 元。全球钢铁企业资本开支共计 6549 亿元，市场空间广阔。 ⚫ 冶金工程市场格局：头部集中度高，国际化业务占主流。2023 年全球 7 家头部公司冶金工程总收入约合人民币 2725 亿元，占全球市场份额 41.6%，中钢国际市场份额 3.8%；收入增速方面，头部企业普遍放缓， 中钢国际逆势上涨 42.9%；国际化业务方面，海外龙头企业以境外收 入为主，部分企业境外收入近 8 成，中钢国际境外收入占比 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 28.68 CNY per share based on a 30x PE for 2024 [3]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the sensitive toothpaste segment, with revenue growth from 944 million CNY in 2019 to 1.376 billion CNY in 2023, and net profit increasing from 63 million CNY to 141 million CNY during the same period [1][13]. - The oral care market in China is expected to undergo transformation, driven by demand upgrades and the rise of new product categories such as mouthwash and electric toothbrushes [1][23]. - The company is expanding its product matrix and optimizing its pricing strategy to capture market share, particularly in lower-tier markets and through online channels [1][17]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Chongqing Dengkang Oral Care Products Co., Ltd. was established in 2001 and has become a significant player in the oral care industry, focusing on sensitive toothpaste and maintaining a comprehensive product matrix [10][12]. Market Analysis - The Chinese oral care market was valued at 52.173 billion CNY in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 4.56%. The market is expected to continue expanding due to increased consumer awareness of oral health [23][24]. - The share of basic oral care products is declining, while specialized and electric products are gaining traction, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [24][26]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of 9.88% from 2019 to 2023. The first quarter of 2024 reported revenue of 361 million CNY and net profit of 37 million CNY [13][14]. - The revenue breakdown indicates that adult oral care products account for 89.36% of total sales, with significant growth in electric toothbrushes and oral medical products [13][21]. Channel Strategy - The company has a diversified channel strategy, with 72.32% of revenue coming from distribution channels, 3.94% from direct supply, and 22.98% from e-commerce, reflecting a shift towards online sales [17][18]. - The gross margin has improved, with a reported 48.43% in Q1 2024, driven by an increase in the sales of mid-to-high-end products [17][21].

[Table_Page] 公告点评|基础建设 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 中国交建(601800.SH)/中国交通建 设(01800.HK) | --- | --- | |-------------------------|--------------------| | 公司评级 [Table_Invest] | 买入-A/买入-H | | 当前价格 | 8.65 元/4.61 港元 | | 合理价值 | 10.27 元/5.48 港元 | | 前次评级 | 买入/买入 | | 报告日期 | 2024-08-02 | 24Q2 海外新签高增，筹划提高分红频率 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ Q2 新签稳增，境外新签保持高景气。根据公司经营合同公告，24H1， 新签合同额 9609 亿元，同比+8%，其中境内/境外新签分别 7648/1961 亿元，同比+3%/39%；24Q2，新签合同额 4536 亿元，同比+6%，其 中境内/境外分别 3487/1048 亿元，同比-6%/+82%，包括澳大利亚墨 尔本雅拉有轨电车第五期运维项目（120 亿元）等重大项目。 ⚫ 聚焦国企改革，筹 ...

[Table_Title] 【 广 发 商 社 & 海 外 】 名 创 优 品 (MNSO/09896.HK) 引领新零售，品牌出海进行时 [Table_Summary] 核心观点：（若无特别说明，本文货币单位均采用人民币单位） ⚫ 玩转 IP 联名，高频上新叠加吸睛设计能力，打造差异化新零售品牌。 当前消费环境下，生活家居等刚需性较强的标品的"低价"对刺激消 费作用有限，零售商需加码产品的情绪价值和颜值价值来夯实产品力。 基于品牌升级的战略，公司的产品结构从 100%性价比产品，升级为 "30%品牌升级+70%性价比"。公司目标是成为全球第一的 IP 设计零 售集团，并提出将在 2028 年实现 50%的 IP 产品销售和 50%的高性价 比产品销售结构。公司持续优化品类结构，IP 收入占比提升能持续拉 动集团整体毛利率。公司的 IP 运营时间长，自有品牌对国内、国际大 IP 授权的可得性、议价能力较强；同时 IP 运营经验丰富，有强大供应 链能力支撑，保障上新频率和新品质量。 ⚫ 公司前瞻布局海外市场，沉淀选品、选址经验，已取得初步成效，未 来五年仍为主力扩张驱动，集团目标未来 5 年海外业务翻四番。公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 10.41 per share based on a 15x PE valuation for FY25 [4][18]. Core Views - The company reported a 20% year-on-year decline in retail value for FY25Q1, with a 18.6% decline in mainland China and a 28.8% decline in Hong Kong and Macau. Same-store sales in mainland China fell by 26.4%, while same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau dropped by 30.8% [2][3]. - The decline in sales is attributed to high gold prices, which have suppressed consumer demand for discretionary spending. The average selling price of embedded products in mainland China increased by HKD 800 to HKD 8,600, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it decreased by HKD 300 to HKD 16,400 [2][3]. - The company is focused on optimizing its retail network by replacing underperforming stores with high-revenue, high-profit locations to mitigate short-term losses and maintain market share [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of HKD 69 billion, HKD 79 billion, and HKD 91 billion for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively. The projected revenue for FY25 is HKD 109.37 billion, with a growth rate of 0.6% [3][4]. - The EBITDA for FY25 is forecasted at HKD 12.36 billion, with a net profit margin of 6.4% [3][4]. Retail Performance - The retail value in mainland China saw a decline of 18.6%, while Hong Kong and Macau experienced a 28.8% drop. The same-store sales in mainland China decreased by 26.4%, and in Hong Kong and Macau, it fell by 30.8% [2][3]. - The company continues to enhance its retail network, with a total of 7,429 retail points as of June 30, 2024, having closed 91 stores in mainland China during the quarter [2][3]. Product Segmentation - The sales of gold products in mainland China decreased by 27.9%, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it fell by 33.0%. The average selling price of gold products in mainland China increased by HKD 800 to HKD 6,200, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it rose by HKD 500 to HKD 8,900 [2][3].

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|计算机 2024 年 8 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 计算机行业 Meta 发布 FY24Q2 财报，AI 赋能现有业务路径清晰 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | 分析师： [Tabl | 刘雪峰 | 分析师： | 周源 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260514030002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523040001 | SFC CE.no: BNX004 021-38003675 0755-23948351 gfliuxuefeng@gf.com.cn shzhouyuan@gf.com.cn 请注意，周源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： Meta 发布 FY24Q2 财报，净利润同比大幅增长。根据财报，FY24Q2，公司实现营收 ...

[Table_Title] 南京银行（601009.SH） 非息高增，业绩好于预期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 南京银行发布 2024 年半年度报告，24H1 营收、PPOP、归母利润同 比增速分别为 7.9%、10.4%、8.5%；24Q2 单季度营收、PPOP、归 母净利润同比分别增长 13.6%、17.2%、12.0%。从上半年累计业绩驱 动上看，规模增长、非息收入高增、成本收入比下降是主要正贡献，息 差、拨备计提是主要负贡献。 亮点：（1）信贷保持较高增速。24H1 贷款同比增长 13.5%，结构上以 对公贷款为主，24H1 对公贷款同比增长 16.6%，基建和制造业贷款同 比增速分别为 34.3%、26.3%。个人贷款需求疲软，24H1 个贷同比增 长 4.4%，仅消费贷款正增，同比增长 9.4%。（2）其他非息收入保持 高增。24H1 公司其他非息收入同比增长 25.5%，环比 24Q1 提升 1.62pct，或主要得益于债牛行情下交易户浮盈，公允价值变动损益大 幅增长。（3）中收增长稳健。24H1 手续费及佣金净收入同比增长 13.3%，相对稳健，主要是代理咨询、担保承诺等业务保 ...

[Table_Page] 中报点评|电力 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 华能国际(600011.SH)/华能国际电 力股份(00902.HK) 二季度火电风电盈利承压，现金流持续改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 二季度业绩盈利 29 亿元，火电、风电利润承压。公司发布 2024 年中 报，上半年实现营收 1188 亿元(同比-5.7%)，归母净利润 74.5 亿元（同 比+18.2%，Q1、Q2 分别为 46、29 亿元）。分板块税前利润，Q1、Q2 煤电盈利 28、12 亿元，折度电 3.1、1.5 分/度，环比下降预计为非供 暖季煤耗增加等影响，计算 Q2 煤耗环比提升 25 克/千瓦时、影响度电 2.5 分；上半年绿电盈利 53 亿元(同比+5.0%)，其中 Q2 风电盈利同比 下降 23%、考虑为利用小时数下降致电量减少影响。上半年经营现金 流 236 亿元(同比+71.5%)，投资现金流净流出 225 亿元(同比+6.3%)。 ⚫ 看好净资产持续修复，容量及辅助服务稳定盈利。2024H1 公司还原后 的归母净资产为 559 亿元(不含永续债 796 亿元)、较上年末增 ...