[Table_Page] 投资策略月报|食品饮料 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 26.73 per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of RMB 15.20 [4][8]. Core Views - The company plans to repurchase shares to enhance employee stock ownership and equity incentives, reflecting confidence in its development and future prospects. The total repurchase amount is set between RMB 9 billion and RMB 18 billion, with a maximum price of RMB 27.01 per share, representing 0.5%-1.0% of the total share capital [2][3]. - In the pig farming segment, the company has demonstrated a significant cost advantage, with a year-on-year sales increase of 18.62% in live pigs, totaling 19.05 million heads sold from January to August 2024. The comprehensive breeding cost has decreased from RMB 14.6 per kg to RMB 13.8 per kg, with a breeding and delivery rate of 87% [2][3]. - The poultry segment remains stable, with a slight decrease in chicken sales by 0.2% year-on-year, totaling 754 million chickens sold. The comprehensive cost of raising chickens has decreased to RMB 11.8-12 per kg, maintaining a leading position in the industry [2][3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at RMB 1.57, RMB 1.91, and RMB 2.55, respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 times for 2024 [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was RMB 83.725 billion, with a projected growth rate of 28.9%. For 2023, revenue is expected to reach RMB 89.921 billion, with a growth rate of 7.4%. The forecast for 2024 is RMB 109.512 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 21.8% [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was RMB 5.289 billion, with a significant increase projected for 2024 at RMB 10.439 billion, representing a growth rate of 263.4% [3][8]. - The company's EBITDA for 2024 is expected to be RMB 15.761 billion, with a substantial increase in profitability anticipated in the following years [3][8].

Xml [Table_Title] 新能源汽车行业 以旧换新政策催化，优质车型周期开启 9 月销售旺季 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 新能源汽车批售口径渗透率突破 44.8%，彰显国内电动车市场韧性需 求。据中汽协，8 月新能源汽车产销量分别为 109.2 万辆和 110.0 万 辆，环比均+11.0%，同比分别+29.6%和+30.0%。批售口径下新能源汽 车渗透率 44.84%，环比+1.03pct，同比+12.08pct。伴随 2024 年 7 月 25 日中央"以旧换新"电动车补贴政策加码，中央-地方点面结合激活 换购新车需求，叠加国内优质车型放量，有望开启 9 月销售旺季。 ⚫ 比亚迪高端化+出海巩固全球格局，零跑、小鹏新车型驱动交付拐点 显现。据比亚迪官微，8 月比亚迪电动乘用车销量 37.09 万辆，同比 +35.30%，环比+8.82%，24Q2 后新车上市提速，2025 款汉家族（第 五代 DM 技术）、夏（中大型 MPV）、海豹 06GT、腾势 Z9/Z9GT （首次搭载"易三方"）、豹 8（华为首次智能化合作）、仰望 U9 等 新车型陆续上市打开销量空间。据各车企官微， ...

[Table_Contacts] | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|----------------------------|---------------------| | [Table_Title] 石基信息（ 002153.SZ ） | [ 公司评级 Table_Invest] | 证券研究报告 \n买入 | | | 当前价格 | 5.56 元 | | ARR 继续快速增长，基本面拐点逐步验证 | 合理价值 | 8.84 元 | | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 报告日期 | 2024-09-19 | ⚫ 公司业绩持续保持较快增长。24 年上半年公司实现收入 13.8 亿元，同 比增加 15.1%；归母净利润 2472 万元，同比增加 10.8%；扣非归母净 利润 2038 万元，同比增加 16.4%。24H1 毛利率小幅下滑，主因系低 毛利率的硬件营收占比增长较快（24H1 第三方硬件配套业务、自有智 能商用设备营收同比增长 33%、28%），未来随着云化业务增 ...

[公司评级 Table_Invest] 买入 当前价格 16.03 元 合理价值 23.18 元 报告日期 2024-09-18 [Table_Finance] 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 6370 7411 7813 8930 10212 增长率（%） 16.1% 16.3% 5.4% 14.3% 14.3% EBITDA（百万元） 612 678 903 1001 1152 归母净利润（百万元） 579 744 793 890 1034 增长率（%） 7.5% 28.4% 6.7% 12.2% 16.2% EPS（元/股） 1.47 1.90 1.55 1.73 2.01 市盈率（P/E） 21.29 14.59 10.37 9.25 7.96 ROE（%） 17.0% 18.8% 17.8% 17.7% 18.2% EV/EBITDA 18.46 12.94 6.26 5.16 3.98 数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 川仪股份（603100.SH） 国产工业自动化仪器仪表领先 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪研究|化学制药 [Table_Title] 百利天恒-U（688506.SH） B01D1 闪耀 ESMO，全球注册临床可期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 公 司 在 2024ESMO 首 次 公 布 核 心 产 品 BL-B01D1 在尿路上皮癌、食管鳞癌及胆道癌中的数据，其中 UC 数据尤为亮眼。 2.2mg/kg 组 27 例疗效可评估，大多数患者均经受抗 PD-(L)1 和含铂 化疗，14 例经受 ADC 治疗，实现 ORR 40.7%，confirmed 33.3%。 在 12 例化疗经治线数仅为 1 的患者中实现 ORR 75%，6 个月 PFS 率 100%。在 EGFR 和 HER3 各表达水平下均观察到抗肿瘤活性。安全 性方面，≥G3 TRAE 发生率 52.9%，治疗相关 SAE 35.3%，大部分血 液学毒性为 1-2 级，未观察到治疗相关死亡及 ILD（来源：公司官网）。 ⚫ BMS 表达对开展 B01D1 全球注册临床的信心。BMS 召开 ESMO2024 投资者交流会议，BMS 认为 B01D1 在胃肠道和生殖泌尿系统癌症中 表现出可 ...

混产品保有规模 CR10 为 59%（23Q4 55%），固收类产品保有规模 CR10 为 64%（23Q4 66%）。 [Table_Page] 深度分析|非银金融 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|计算机 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to key companies in the water transport industry, including China Communications Construction Company (CCCC), China Electric Power Construction Company (CEPC), and Anhui Construction Engineering Group [6][7]. Core Insights - The water transport industry is experiencing high investment demand driven by policy support and economic growth potential, with significant multiplier effects from water transport investments [3][19]. - The report highlights the strategic importance of the Pinglu Canal project, which aims to optimize the western water transport structure and enhance connectivity with the Belt and Road Initiative [31][32]. - The report emphasizes the long-term cost advantages of water transport compared to road and rail, with lower freight rates and energy consumption [26][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The water transport industry consists of three segments: upstream equipment and materials manufacturing, midstream engineering construction, and downstream investment and operation [11][14]. - Key players in the midstream include CCCC, CEPC, and Anhui Construction, which are responsible for project planning, design, and construction [11][13]. Investment Multipliers and Cost Efficiency - Short-term, water transport investments can act as a counter-cyclical tool, with multipliers of approximately 1:6 for coastal and 1:3 for inland water transport [3][19]. - Long-term, the report notes that water transport is more cost-effective than road and rail, with significant reductions in transportation costs and emissions as vessel sizes increase [26][28]. National Strategic Planning - The "Five Vertical and Four Horizontal" national planning framework aims to construct 25,000 kilometers of high-grade waterways by 2035, indicating substantial investment opportunities [34][35]. - The report outlines the urgency of upgrading inland waterways to accommodate larger vessels and improve overall transport efficiency [30][31]. Pinglu Canal Project - The Pinglu Canal, approximately 134.2 kilometers long with an estimated cost of 727 billion CNY, is a key project that has already seen over 368 billion CNY in investment [4][31]. - The project is expected to significantly enhance the economic development of western regions and alleviate congestion in existing waterways [31][33]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on leading design and construction firms with extensive domestic and international operations, such as CCCC and CEPC, as well as regional players like Anhui Construction and Huase Group [4][6].

召开，持续关注低空信息基 [Table_Title] 通信行业 OpenAI 发布 $$^ { \circ 1 }$$ 模型，有望驱动推理算力需求再上新台阶 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 9 月 12 日，OpenAI 正式发布 o1 模型，测试表明在数据分析、编码 和数学领域中，o1 的受欢迎程度远远高于 GPT-4o。相较于 GPT-4、 GPT-4o 等传统 LLM，我们认为 o1 有四大关键变化值得关注。 （1）LLM 的思考分析能力再次得到强化，数理、代码能力显著得到加 强。根据 OpenAI 的测试，在国际数学奥林匹克（IMO）资格考试中， GPT-4o 仅正确解决了 13%的问题，而 o1 得分为 83%；o1 在 Codeforces 比赛中位居 89%分位；此外，在绝大多数推理需求较强的 任务中，o1 的表现明显优于 GPT-4o。o1 在回答问题时会进行思考， 将复杂问题分解为若干简单问题，并尝试不同解题路径，该过程可以极 大提升模型推理能力。在 OpenAI 给出的解码问题实例中，o1 会通过 自问自答的方式将问题拆解为诸多细分问题，并相继给予解答或否定。 （2）o1 能力 ...