证券研究报告 公 2024年05月01日 司 报 告 长安汽车(000625) │ 行 业： 汽车/乘用车 公 投资评级： 司 当前价格： 14.72元 季 盈利能力短期承压，看好未来新能源转型及出海 目标价格： 报 点 事件： 评 基本数据 4 月 29 日，公司发布 2024 年一季报：2024 年一季度公司实现营业收入 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 9,917.29/9,854.23 370.23亿元，同比增长7.14%；归母净利润11.58亿元，同比下滑83.39%； 流通A股市值(百万元) 120,910.15 扣非归母净利润1.12亿元，同比下滑91.77%。 ➢ 受车型降价影响ASP有所下滑 每股净资产(元) 7.38 公司 2024 年一季度实现总营收 370.23 亿元，同比增长 7.14%。公司一季 资产负债率(%) 60.24 度实现批发销量 69.2 万辆，同比增长 13.87%；其中自主品牌一季度共实 一年内最高/最低(元) 21.48/11.41 现销量58.9万辆，同比增长13.57%。营收增幅低于销量增幅，主要系一季 度价格战影响，ASP有所下滑所致。 股价相对走势 ➢ 盈利能力 ...

2024 年 04 月 30 日 作者 分析师：樊磊 执业证书编号：S0590521120002 邮箱：fanl@glsc.com.cn 分析师：方诗超 执业证书编号：S0590523030001 邮箱：fangshch@glsc.com.cn 相关报告 1、《经济如期重回复苏轨道：——2024 年一季度 及 3 月经济数据点评》2024.04.17 2、《对新"国九条"的一些理解：——助推资本市 场高质量发展的重大举措》2024.04.15 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 财政政策方面，会议提出"要及早发行并用好超长期特别国债，加快专项 债发行使用进度"，后续超长期特别国债与专项债发行使用节奏可能有所加 快，或有望对基建投资构成支撑。货币政策方面，会议进一步指出，"要灵 活运用利率和存款准备金率等政策工具"，我们认为后续降准或者结构性降 息的可能性明显增加。会议也强调要"加大对实体经济支持力度，降低社 会综合融资成本"，这可能意味着 LPR 乃至存款利率的下调仍有空间。 地产政策着眼化解存量房产 证券研究报告 宏 观 经 济│ 宏 观 点 评 逆周期调节政策和经济改革都值得期待 ——4 月政治局会议点评 事件 ...

证券研究报告 公 2024年04月30日 司 报 告 中国核电(601985) │ 行 业： 公用事业/电力 公 投资评级： 买入（维持） 司 当前价格： 9.10元 年 核电主业安稳发展，分红稳健看好长期成长 目标价格： 10.50元 报 点 事件： 评 基本数据 公司发布《2023年年度报告》和《2024年第一季度报告》，2023年公司实 18,883.28/18,883. 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 28 现营业收入 749.57亿元，同比+5.15%，实现归母净利润 106.24 亿元，同 流通A股市值(百万元) 171,837.89 比+17.91%。2024Q1公司实现营业收入179.88亿元，同比+0.53%，实现归 每股净资产(元) 4.93 母净利润30.59亿元，同比+1.18%，业绩符合预期。 ➢ 安全稳定提升上网电量，降本增效成果显著 资产负债率(%) 70.20 公司核电发展以安全为基，WANO 满分机组为 18 台，综合指数平均值全球 一年内最高/最低(元) 9.74/6.66 领先。全年完成 17 次大修，其中 16 次常规大修平均工期较 2022 年优化 股价相对走势 3.4天 ...

证券研究报告 公 2024年05月01日 司 报 告 王府井(600859) │ 行 业： 商贸零售/一般零售 公 投资评级： 增持（维持） 司 当前价格： 13.64元 非均衡式复苏延续，免税业态增速明显 季 目标价格： 18.83元 报 点 事件： 评 基本数据 公司发布 2024 年第一季度报告。24Q1 公司实现收入 33.1 亿元，同比- 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 1,135.05/1,093.47 1.7%；归母净利润为2.0亿元，同比-10.9%，扣非归母净利润为1.9亿元， 流通A股市值(百万元) 14,914.92 同比-13.7%。 每股净资产(元) 17.56 ➢ 非均衡式复苏延续，公司营收同比下滑 资产负债率(%) 50.01 2024年第一季度，消费市场规模有所回升，但业态恢复不均衡延续，服务 一年内最高/最低(元) 24.88/12.32 类消费显著好于商品类消费。从公司经营来看，有税方面，24Q1奥特莱斯 （收入同比增长9.5%）及购物中心（收入同比增长3.5%）业态仍有增长， 股价相对走势 修复速度明显快于百货（收入同比降低 11.3%）、超市（收入同比降低 王府井 沪深30 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.69 CNY, based on a 12x PE for 2024 [4][5]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant recovery in production and sales in Q1 2024, with major raw materials and intermediates showing a sequential increase in sales volume [3][4]. - The agricultural chemical sector is expected to see marginal improvements in market conditions, driven by a stabilization in product prices and an increase in export volumes [1][3][16]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 5.868 billion CNY, a decrease of 35% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.439 billion CNY, down 38% year-on-year [15]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.215 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 37% but a sequential increase of 57%, with a net profit of 0.225 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 57% but a sequential increase of 95% [15]. - The forecasted revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 7.177 billion CNY, 8.291 billion CNY, and 9.135 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 22%, 15.53%, and 10.17% [4][9]. Industry Outlook - The agricultural chemical sector is showing signs of recovery, with a 51% year-on-year increase in pesticide formulation exports in the first quarter of 2024, indicating a potential upturn in demand for raw materials [1][3]. - The company is focusing on technological innovation and has successfully launched several projects, enhancing its integrated supply chain from raw materials to fine chemicals [16].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 27.74 CNY per share based on a 23x PE for 2024 [12][16][33]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading cross-border e-commerce player focused on home furnishing products, primarily targeting the European and North American markets. It has shown significant revenue growth from 1.595 billion CNY in 2018 to 5.455 billion CNY in 2022, with a CAGR of 36% [41][45]. - The company plans to expand its product categories and market presence, particularly in the U.S. and Latin America, where it currently holds a low market share [2][64]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in home furnishing products and operates mainly through online B2C platforms, with 80.53% of its revenue coming from this channel in 2022. Amazon accounted for 67.61% of its revenue [41][60]. - The company has a stable and experienced core management team, with the founder holding nearly 50% of the shares [32][63]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 76.74 billion CNY, 93.70 billion CNY, and 112.58 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.34%, 22.10%, and 20.14% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 4.84 billion CNY, 6.17 billion CNY, and 7.63 billion CNY for the same period [12][16][42]. - The company’s EPS is projected to be 1.21 CNY, 1.54 CNY, and 1.90 CNY for 2024-2026, with a 3-year CAGR of 22.72% [12][16]. Market Dynamics - The demand for imported furniture in the U.S. is significant, with 39% of furniture sourced from imports. The company aims to leverage this demand to mitigate domestic overcapacity issues in China's furniture manufacturing sector [45][51]. - The cross-border e-commerce model is seen as a more efficient alternative to traditional foreign trade, shortening transaction chains and enhancing market access [45][51]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to enhance its market share in the U.S. and expand into Latin America and Australia, with a focus on increasing its product offerings and distribution channels [2][64]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the pet product segment, with expected revenue growth rates of 42%, 35%, and 34% for 2024-2026 [6][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 26.88 CNY, based on a 16x PE for 2024 [4][14]. Core Insights - The company focuses on building a sustainable core market, particularly in Yunnan and the Sichuan-Chongqing region, to enhance operational capabilities and scale advantages [2]. - As of the end of 2023, the company operates 10,255 direct chain stores, a year-on-year increase of 11.39%, with 5,397 stores in Yunnan and 2,073 in the Sichuan-Chongqing area [2]. - The company has accelerated its online business through a new retail segment, achieving sales of 876 million CNY in 2023 [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 17.38 billion CNY in 2023, a slight decline of 0.29% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 45.60% to 549 million CNY [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 17.38 billion CNY, with a net profit of 549 million CNY, and a non-recurring net profit of 733 million CNY, reflecting declines of 45.60% and 25.94% respectively [2][3]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.10 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.96%, with a net profit of 242 million CNY, up 1.03% [2]. - The sales of traditional Chinese and Western medicines reached 13.04 billion CNY in 2023, a growth of 0.39%, accounting for 75.02% of total revenue [3]. - The company is expanding into health-related products, achieving sales of 370 million CNY in this new category in 2023 [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 20.03 billion CNY, 23.47 billion CNY, and 28.10 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 15.26%, 17.14%, and 19.74% [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.00 billion CNY, 1.16 billion CNY, and 1.47 billion CNY, with growth rates of 82.24%, 15.95%, and 26.33% respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is currently set at "Buy" with a target price of 23.96 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has launched innovative technologies, including the S24 electrode optimization technology, which enhances battery life by over 20%. It has also begun mass production of the 314Ah Penghui Energy self-developed wind power battery cell, marking a significant advancement in the large storage sector [3][19]. - The company faced a significant decline in net profit due to product price reductions and inventory destocking by downstream enterprises, with a net profit margin of 0.96% in 2023, down 6.2 percentage points year-on-year [19]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, having established offices in North America, Europe, Japan, and Indonesia, and a factory in Vietnam. Strategic partnerships have been formed to penetrate the African and North American energy storage markets [9][20]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 6.932 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 23.54%, and a net profit of 43 million CNY, down 93.14% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, revenue was 1.597 billion CNY, a 36% decline year-on-year but a 33.86% increase quarter-on-quarter [7]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 7.456 billion CNY, 8.264 billion CNY, and 9.669 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 7.56%, 10.83%, and 17.00%. Net profits are expected to rebound significantly, reaching 413 million CNY, 539 million CNY, and 665 million CNY, with growth rates of 857.68%, 30.68%, and 23.23% respectively [21]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.82 CNY, 1.07 CNY, and 1.32 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 27, 21, and 17 respectively [21]. Market Position - The company ranks among the top six global suppliers of energy storage batteries, with its household and commercial energy storage products being in the top three globally [19]. - The company is focusing on capacity construction to meet order demands, which is expected to drive continuous growth in performance [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.89 CNY, based on a 2024 PE of 20.03 times [13]. Core Insights - The company has optimized its product structure, leading to improved profitability [2]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 10.987 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 431 million CNY, up 19.27% year-on-year [9]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 26.87%, an increase of 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.38% in Q1 2024, up 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2022: 10,006 - 2023: 10,987 - 2024E: 12,067 - 2025E: 13,097 - 2026E: 14,106 - Revenue Growth Rate (%): - 2022: 11.59% - 2023: 9.80% - 2024E: 9.83% - 2025E: 8.53% - 2026E: 7.71% [3][4]. - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2022: 361 - 2023: 431 - 2024E: 593 - 2025E: 756 - 2026E: 952 - Net Profit Growth Rate (%): - 2022: 15.68% - 2023: 19.27% - 2024E: 37.74% - 2025E: 27.32% - 2026E: 25.98% [3][4]. Product and Market Performance - The company has seen double-digit growth in low-temperature products, with high-end fresh milk growing nearly 40% year-on-year [12]. - The company’s DTC revenue grew over 15%, with remote e-commerce increasing by over 40% [12]. - New product revenue accounted for 12% of total revenue in 2023, contributing to growth [12].

Core Insights - The overall performance of overseas Chinese stocks is recovering, with PPI bottoming out, which is expected to support capital expenditure growth [16][104][118] - The recovery in earnings is driven by sectors such as consumer discretionary, finance, and utilities, with notable contributions from retail and consumer services [16][61][56] Earnings Growth - Post-pandemic recovery is evident, with a significant acceleration in earnings growth expected in the second half of 2023 [10][20] - The overall revenue decline for Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong has narrowed to -2.2%, while non-financial sectors have seen a revenue growth rebound to 2.1% [11][31] - By the second half of 2023, the earnings growth rate for all Chinese stocks is projected to rise to 4.5%, with non-financial sectors seeing a growth rate of 1.9% [53][51] Earnings Quality - The return on equity (ROE) for Chinese stocks is stabilizing and showing signs of recovery, supported by improvements in asset turnover and net profit margins [43][66] - The gross margin has shown an overall recovery in the second half of 2023, particularly in consumer, real estate, information technology, and materials sectors [73][95] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure is expected to rise as PPI rebounds, with materials, healthcare, and TMT sectors poised for recovery [104][123] - The capital expenditure growth for materials and healthcare is anticipated to improve, while real estate continues to face challenges [118][120] Inventory Management - The non-financial sector of Chinese stocks has likely ended its destocking cycle, with inventory growth rebounding alongside revenue growth [113][112] - Many sub-sectors within materials and consumer discretionary are experiencing historically low inventory growth rates and inventory-to-sales ratios [19][136]