证券研究报告 公 2024年05月04日 司 报 告 百润股份(002568) │ 行 业： 食品饮料/非白酒 公 投资评级： 买入（维持） 司 季 年报及一季报点评：24Q1 收入高基数下降速，静待新品驱动 当前价格： 20.40元 目标价格： 24.64元 报 点 事件： 评 基本数据 公司发布2023年报与2024年一季报，2023年实现营业收入32.64亿元， 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 1,049.69/717.28 同比增长 25.85%；归母净利润 8.09亿元，同比增长 55.28%；扣非净利润 流通A股市值(百万元) 14,632.50 7.79亿元，同比增长60.08%。其中单Q4实现营业收入8.07亿元，同比下 降14.90%；归母净利润1.44亿元，同比下降33.37%；扣非净利润1.29亿 每股净资产(元) 3.79 元，同比下降36.87%。2024Q1实现营业收入8.02亿元，同比增长5.51%； 资产负债率(%) 41.21 归母净利润1.69亿元，同比下降9.80%；扣非净利润1.61亿元，同比下降 一年内最高/最低(元) 42.94/17.57 13.79%。 ➢ 2023 ...

证券研究报告 行 2024年05月04日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 房地产 告 上次建议： 强于大市 │ 全面强化房地产风险管理，促进房地产高质量发展 行 业 相对大盘走势 点 ➢ 行业事件 房地产 沪深300 评 10% 2024年4月30日，中共中央政治局会议在北京举行。会议强调要持续防范化 研 解房地产风险，继续“因城施策”，压实地方政府、房企和金融机构各方责任， 究 -7% 切实做好保交房工作，保障购房人合法权益。要结合房地产市场供求关系的新 变化、人民群众对优质住房的新期待，统筹研究消化存量房和优化增量房的政 -23% 策措施，抓紧构建房地产发展新模式，促进房地产高质量发展。 -40% ➢ 持续关注防范化解房地产风险： 2023/5 2023/9 2023/12 2024/4 在当前的风险管理策略中，政府持续关注房地产风险的防控，关注地方政府债 务风险的管理，关注中小金融机构的改革与风险防控。首先，政府将房地产市 作者 场的稳定性作为核心关注点，不断强化房地产风险的防控，强调其对经济安全 分析师：杨灵修 的基础性作用。其次，对于地方政府债务风险的管理，政府部署了较为全面的 执业证书编号： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [10] Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in orthopedic traditional Chinese medicine patches and rapid expansion in tablet products [1][8] - The company's profitability continues to improve, with a significant increase in both revenue and net profit [2][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 3.311 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.31%, and a net profit of 568 million yuan, up 22.09% year-on-year [7][18] - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 909 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.27%, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, up 31.98% year-on-year [7] - The company expects revenues of 3.855 billion yuan, 4.401 billion yuan, and 4.995 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.40%, 14.18%, and 13.50% [3][18] - The projected net profits for the same years are 683 million yuan, 811 million yuan, and 955 million yuan, with growth rates of 20.30%, 18.73%, and 17.64% respectively [3][18] Product Performance - The company offers over ten dosage forms and more than a hundred products, with patch products generating 2.047 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 6.91% [8] - The tablet products saw a revenue of 262 million yuan, growing 34.66% year-on-year, indicating a rapid expansion [8] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2023 was 73.29%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 17.16%, up 1.65 percentage points [17] - The company has implemented marketing reforms and integrated resources, contributing to the continuous improvement in profitability [17]

门店数量持续增加，股权激励彰显信心 ➢ 门店数量快速增加，大力发展线上业务 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|------------------------------|-----------|-------------------------|--------| | 财务数据和估值 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 7514 | 9081 | 11251 | 14086 | 17693 | | 增长率（ % ） | 43.54% | 20.84% | 23.90% | 25.19% | 25.61% | | EBITDA （百万元） | 1255 | 1528 | 1473 | 1653 | 1549 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 363 | 414 | 479 | 568 | 674 | | 增长率（ % ） | 20.90% | 14.05% | 15.65% | 18.43% | 18.78% | | EPS （元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea Group with a target price of 82.07 CNY, based on a current price of 69.78 CNY [5]. Core Insights - Midea Group's Q1 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 106.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9 billion CNY, up 11.91% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company demonstrated strong growth in both consumer and B2B segments, with notable increases in smart home products and overseas sales [3][4]. - The gross margin improved to 27.32%, a 3.28 percentage point increase year-on-year, reflecting a favorable product mix and cost management [4][7]. Financial Data Summary - Revenue projections for Midea Group are as follows: 398.2 billion CNY in 2024E, 422.9 billion CNY in 2025E, and 449.8 billion CNY in 2026E, with growth rates of 7.03%, 6.21%, and 6.35% respectively [5][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 38.1 billion CNY in 2024E, 42.3 billion CNY in 2025E, and 46.5 billion CNY in 2026E, with growth rates of 13.12%, 10.90%, and 9.91% respectively [5][8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 5.47 CNY in 2024E, 6.07 CNY in 2025E, and 6.67 CNY in 2026E [5][8]. Operational Performance - Midea Group's cash flow from operations reached 13.9 billion CNY in Q1 2024, a 50% increase year-on-year, indicating strong operational efficiency [4][8]. - The company reported a record high in contract liabilities at 37.6 billion CNY at the end of Q1 2024, reflecting robust future revenue potential [4][8]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 63.08%, indicating a stable financial structure [1].

证券研究报告 公 2024年05月04日 司 报 告 益丰药房(603939) │ 行 业： 医药生物/医药商业 公 投资评级： 买入（维持） 司 年 业绩稳健增长，门店数量快速扩张 当前价格： 43.94元 报 目标价格： 55.73元 点 事件： 评 基本数据 公司发布2023年年报及2024年一季报，2023年实现收入225.88亿元， 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 1,010.58/1,008.12 同比增长13.59%；归母净利润14.12亿元，同比增长11.90%；扣非后归 流通A股市值(百万元) 44,296.62 母净利润 13.62 亿元，同比增长 10.92%。2024 年一季度实现收入 59.71 亿元，同比增长13.39%；归母净利润4.07亿元，同比增长20.89%；扣非 每股净资产(元) 10.07 后归母净利润3.99亿元，同比增长24.26%。 资产负债率(%) 57.69  门店数量快速扩张 一年内最高/最低(元) 52.63/30.90 2023年公司实现零售业务收入201.85亿元，同比增长12.00%；批发业务 收入18.92亿元，同比增长39.23%。公司坚持“区域聚 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.70 yuan [6][10] Core Views - The company's overseas business is growing rapidly, with overseas revenue reaching 92.95 million yuan in 2023, a 39.94% YoY increase, accounting for 14.94% of total revenue [9] - The company's domestic revenue in 2023 was 529 million yuan, a 17.70% YoY increase [9] - The company's revenue from commercialized mouse models reached 367 million yuan in 2023, a 13.62% YoY increase [9] - The company's functional efficacy business revenue was 132 million yuan in 2023, a 36.09% YoY increase [9] - The company's custom breeding business revenue was 78.85 million yuan in 2023, a 22.24% YoY increase [9] - The company's model customization revenue was 34.78 million yuan in 2023, a 49.42% YoY increase [9] - The company's import/export agency and other revenue was 8.8 million yuan in 2023, a 15.15% YoY increase [9] - The company's overseas facility in San Diego was launched in Q1 2024, which is expected to enhance service capabilities and accelerate overseas market expansion [9] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to be 761 million yuan in 2024, 940 million yuan in 2025, and 1.17 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 22.26%, 23.55%, and 24.51% respectively [6] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 201 million yuan in 2024, 250 million yuan in 2025, and 314 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 26.20%, 24.43%, and 25.65% respectively [6] - The company's EPS is expected to be 0.49 yuan in 2024, 0.61 yuan in 2025, and 0.76 yuan in 2026, with a 3-year CAGR of 25.43% [6] - The company's EBITDA is expected to be 333 million yuan in 2024, 389 million yuan in 2025, and 443 million yuan in 2026 [14] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be 26.0x in 2024, 20.9x in 2025, and 16.6x in 2026 [14] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to be 2.3x in 2024, 2.1x in 2025, and 1.9x in 2026 [14] - The company's EV/EBITDA is expected to be 11.6x in 2024, 9.2x in 2025, and 7.4x in 2026 [14] Operational Highlights - The company added approximately 80,000 cages of domestic capacity in 2023, bringing the total capacity to approximately 280,000 cages, a 40% increase compared to the end of 2022 [9] - The company operates seven large production facilities in Nanjing, Changzhou, Foshan, Chengdu, Beijing, and Shanghai [9] - The company's operating cash flow is expected to be 388 million yuan in 2024, 351 million yuan in 2025, and 396 million yuan in 2026 [1] - The company's capital expenditure is expected to be -50 million yuan annually from 2024 to 2026 [1] - The company's net cash increase is expected to be 249 million yuan in 2024, 290 million yuan in 2025, and 337 million yuan in 2026 [1] Industry and Valuation - The company operates in the pharmaceutical and medical services industry [10] - The current stock price is 12.72 yuan, with a target price of 14.70 yuan [10] - The company's total market capitalization is 2,594 million yuan, with a total share capital of 410 million shares and a circulating share capital of 203.93 million shares [15] - The company's net asset per share is 5.20 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 16.73% [15]

证券研究报告 宏 观 经 济│ 宏 观 点 评 作者 2024 年 05 月 03 日 美联储 5 月维持利率不变，符合市场会前的预期。目前情况看，就业市场 仍不弱，通胀略高，美国经济仍具韧性。在通胀继续回落的情况下，我们 认为年内仍可能降息。缩表 6 月将降速，需关注相关小银行风险。鲍威尔 明确表示加息不太可能，市场理解美联储偏鸽，美股在新闻发布会开始后 上涨，美债利率下行，美元指数走弱，黄金走强。 美联储 5 月会后宣布将政策利率的目标区间维持在 5.25%-5.5%。本次维持 利率不变符合市场预期，会议前 CME 期货市场的数据显示市场预期利率不 变的概率接近 100%。 ➢ 缩表 6 月开始减速 分析师：樊磊 执业证书编号：S0590521120002 邮箱：fanl@glsc.com.cn 分析师：王博群 执业证书编号：S0590524010002 邮箱：wangboq@glsc.com.cn 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|---------------------------------------------- ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 价格端好于预期， | | | | | | 中下游利润改善 | | | | | | —— 2024Q1 财报分析 | | | | | 2024年05月03日 ➢ 景气——营收增速持续下行，利润增速已离开下行区间，但仍负增长 ✓ 净利润增速：可选消费净利润增速明显回升，周期制造利润仍负增长，公用事业维持高景气。 ➢ 质量——中下游量价齐升，夯实ROE底部 ✓ ROE：可选消费的ROE大幅改善，电力设备、煤炭、有色金属的ROE回落明显。 核心结论——基于财报的组合管理策略 ✓ 纵观A股、美股和日股，盈利稳定性和盈利质量是综合收益率、波动率、Sharpe Ratio、最大回撤后最佳的单因 子财务指标。究其原因，或因盈利稳定的组合具备较高且可持续的ROE。 证券研究报告 核心结论——财报综述 ✓ 净利润贡献：消费板块对A股的利润贡献扩张，制造板块的利润贡献减弱。 ✓ 建议关注净利润高增长且加速增长 ...

证券研究报告 23 年毛利率 31.0%，yoy-0.6pct。23Q4、24Q1 单季度测算毛利率为 25.8%、 29.0%，yoy-3.6、+0.4pct，qoq 分别-9.1、+3.2pct。Q4 波动较大主因新 并表企业口径调整等影响。23 年陶纤/汽车衬垫/工业过滤制品毛利率分别 为 34.1%/8.1%/6.7%，yoy-0.4/-3.7/-7.0pct。23 年陶纤行业需求整体稳 定，同业竞争激烈致公司利润率延续承压（23H1/H2 毛利率分别为 32.8%/29.6%)。汽车衬垫/工业过滤制品新整合进入公司，23 年预计主要为 调整期，盈利能力改善前景值得期待。业务结构变化或亦导致费用率有一 定上升，23 年、23Q4、24Q1 费用率分别 14.9%、15.8%、15.3%，yoy+2.2、 +2.6、+0.4pct。23 年、23Q4、24Q1 归母净利率分别为 14.0%、8.8%、11.8%， 2 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 投资评级： 买入（维持） 当前价格： 13.25 元 目标价格： 17.93 元 在法律许可的情况下，国联证券可能会持有本报告中提及公司所发行的证券并进行交易 ...