股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告导读： 公司 2024 年三季报符合预期，平台化战略下，紧跟市场头部客户，新产品新订单释 放，收入业绩快速增长。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 | 15,993 | 19,701 | 27,552 | 36,074 | 46,229 | | (+/-)% | 39.5% | 23.2% | 39.9% | 30.9% | 28.2% | | 净利润（归母） | 1,700 | 2,151 | 2,873 | 3,877 | 4,962 | | (+/-)% | 67.1% | 26.5% | 33.6% | 35.0% | 28. ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——洋河股份 2024Q3 业绩点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.01 调整延续，静待回暖 洋河股份(002304) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|-----------------------|-------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 訾猛 ( 分析师 ) | 李耀 ( 分析师 ) | | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38675854 | | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | liyao022899@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880520090001 | | 本报告导读： 2024Q3 公司业绩低于预期，深度调整延续；考虑到 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of RMB 92.25, up from the previous target of RMB 76.51 [4] Core Views - Domestic growth is under pressure due to centralized procurement, but dealer inventory has normalized, indicating potential for future growth [2][3] - Overseas markets continue to grow rapidly, with strong performance in Asia-Pacific, Americas, and EMEA regions [3] - New products are receiving positive feedback, supporting the company's growth trajectory [2][3] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 679 million, a 13.44% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 141 million, up 15.06% YoY [3] - Domestic revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 323 million, a 2% YoY decline, while overseas revenue grew 27% YoY to RMB 350 million [3] - Gross margin improved to 67.06%, up 2.44 percentage points YoY, driven by automation and cost optimization [3] Market and Product Development - The company has expanded its presence in the US, covering over 500 hospitals and 1,000 outpatient surgery centers, with a current market share of around 5% [3] - In Europe, the company is strengthening its direct sales channels and has signed a merger agreement with CME, which has a comprehensive sales network across Europe [3] - Visualized products are performing well, with over 750 hospital installations in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to nearly 500 in 2023 [3] Financial Forecasts - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised to RMB 3.07, RMB 3.69, and RMB 4.36, down from previous estimates of RMB 3.21, RMB 3.92, and RMB 4.77 [3] - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 2.755 billion in 2024, RMB 3.221 billion in 2025, and RMB 3.732 billion in 2026 [10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach RMB 577 million in 2024, RMB 694 million in 2025, and RMB 820 million in 2026 [10] Valuation and Market Data - The company's market capitalization is RMB 13.6 billion, with a current stock price of RMB 72.40 [5] - The stock has a 52-week price range of RMB 56.60 to RMB 98.82 [5] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 23.57 in 2024 to 16.59 in 2026 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company has achieved rapid revenue growth due to its expansion outside the province, although profitability is under pressure. Efforts to optimize gross margin and cost structure are showing initial results [2][4]. - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.386 billion yuan (+11.4%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 201 million yuan (-22%). The performance is generally in line with expectations [4]. - The EPS forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised down to 0.90/1.06/1.23 yuan from the previous 1.07/1.24/1.43 yuan, reflecting the impact of rapid expansion on profitability [4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for Q3 2024 was 6.386 billion yuan, with retail and wholesale segments achieving revenues of 5.287 billion yuan (+13.0%) and 978 million yuan (+12.5%) respectively [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 34.2%, down 2.0 percentage points, but the decline has narrowed. The pressure on gross margin is primarily due to the lower margin from the increased share of out-of-province sales [4]. - The company is actively implementing cost control measures, with management expenses showing a decreasing trend [4]. Business Expansion - As of Q3 2024, the total number of stores reached 16,453, with a year-on-year growth of 27% for total stores and 15% for direct stores. However, the pace of new store openings has slightly slowed, and 452 stores were closed in the first three quarters of 2024 [4][6]. - The company is focusing on optimizing operational quality through the closure of underperforming stores [4]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 24.531 billion yuan in 2023 to 36.235 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14% [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline in 2024 to 1.022 billion yuan, before recovering to 1.406 billion yuan by 2026 [5][10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 16.15 in 2024, decreasing to 11.73 by 2026 [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Hisense Visual Technology [4][15]. Core Views - The company's smart display business shows resilience in overseas growth, but short-term gross margins are pressured by rising panel costs and an increase in Black Friday order proportions. The earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downwards, with expected EPS of 1.53, 1.91, and 2.14 yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -4.5%, +24.5%, and +12.1% respectively [2][15]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 40.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.63%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.31 billion yuan, down 19.53% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 15.189 billion yuan, up 5.84% year-on-year, with a net profit of 476 million yuan, down 19.46% year-on-year [11][12]. Revenue Analysis - The global revenue for the smart display terminal business reached 12.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.03%. Overseas revenue was 8.181 billion yuan, up 16.38% year-on-year, with significant growth in shipments to the US and Europe [12][13]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 15.31%, down 1.68 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 14.47%, down 2.16 percentage points year-on-year. The company effectively controlled its expense ratios during this period [13][14]. Cash Flow and Financial Position - As of Q3 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents plus trading financial assets totaling 14.647 billion yuan, an increase of 9.18% year-on-year. The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 1.737 billion yuan, up 1.83% year-on-year [14][16].

Investment Rating - The report rates the home furnishing industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The home furnishing industry is currently under pressure due to weaker downstream demand recovery, but leading companies are expected to maintain market share through a comprehensive product layout and multi-brand strategy, with performance anticipated to stabilize upon downstream recovery [3][7] - Policy effects are gradually materializing, leading to a narrowing of sales declines, with significant policy adjustments in the real estate sector [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The home furnishing industry is facing short-term performance pressure due to weaker-than-expected recovery in downstream demand, but leading companies like Kuka Home, Oppein Home, and others are recommended for investment due to their comprehensive product offerings and market strategies [3][7] Policy Effects and Sales Trends - From January to September 2024, housing completion area decreased by 24.40% year-on-year, while residential sales area fell by 17.10%. However, the decline in sales has narrowed compared to previous months, indicating a potential recovery in the market [8] Performance Differentiation in the Sector - The home furnishing sector's revenue declined by 2.7% year-on-year in Q3 2024, while net profit dropped by 23.5%, indicating increased competition and pressure on profitability [18] - The soft furnishings segment has shown resilience, benefiting from overseas demand recovery and domestic consumption policies, while the custom furniture segment remains under pressure due to direct impacts from real estate sales [20][22] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The overall cash flow of home furnishing companies has declined year-on-year due to revenue impacts, with companies facing challenges in managing costs related to materials and operational expenses [18][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 24.44 CNY, reflecting a PE ratio of 15 times for 2024, which is above the industry average [4][5]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance is significantly better than the industry average despite short-term profit fluctuations due to increased investment in international brand development. The company continues to expand its store network while focusing on store profitability, indicating potential for high-quality growth in the future [3][4]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 3.0 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 760 million CNY, up 0.6% year-on-year. However, Q3 revenue was 1.06 billion CNY, down 4.4% year-on-year, and net profit was 280 million CNY, down 17.3% year-on-year [4][5]. Financial Summary - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.61, 1.85, and 2.08 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.88, 2.20, and 2.53 CNY due to weak consumer demand affecting terminal sales [4]. - The company opened 59 new stores and closed 51 in H1 2024, resulting in a net increase of 8 stores, with a focus on improving store operational quality and profitability [4][5]. - As of the end of Q3, inventory increased by 28% year-on-year to 890 million CNY, primarily due to increased stock for new and existing brands [4]. Market Data - The company's current stock price is 19.63 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 16.68 to 33.66 CNY and a total market capitalization of 11.203 billion CNY [6][5]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 8.91 CNY, with a current price-to-book ratio of 2.2 [7]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 3.763 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit of 917 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 6.4% and 0.7% respectively [10][11]. - The report indicates a stable EBIT margin of around 28.6% for 2024, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 17.5% [10][11]. Comparable Company Valuation - The report includes a comparison with similar companies, indicating that the company is positioned favorably within the industry, with a projected PE ratio of 12 for 2024 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the textile and apparel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that terminal consumption continues to weaken, but manufacturing resilience is relatively better. With the onset of cooler weather, apparel sales are expected to marginally improve in Q4, and leading brands are anticipated to perform well [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Brand Apparel - **Overview**: Consumer confidence remains low, leading to a divergence in brand sales performance. Q3 apparel sales continued to decline, with a year-on-year revenue drop of 8% for the brand apparel sector, worsening from Q2 [5][6]. - **Individual Stock Analysis**: - Semir's revenue leads the industry with a 3% year-on-year increase, driven by online sales. Other leading brands like Bi Yi Le Fen and Bao Xi Niao are expected to see revenue pressure due to weak consumer sentiment [12]. - The report notes that the operating leverage pressure is evident, with net profit declines of 50% year-on-year in Q3 for the brand apparel sector [7][12]. - **Future Outlook**: As temperatures drop, terminal sales are expected to improve in Q4, aided by holiday promotions and sales events [3][5]. 2. Textile Manufacturing - **Overview**: The outdoor OEM sector continues to show high prosperity, outperforming traditional cotton spinning industries in terms of order volume and profitability [3][5]. - **Individual Stock Analysis**: - Taihua New Materials reported a 34% increase in revenue and profit in Q3, benefiting from strong downstream demand. Zhejiang Natural also saw a 35% increase in revenue and a 372% increase in net profit [3][12]. - **Future Outlook**: The manufacturing sector is expected to show a divergence in performance, with outdoor OEM leaders and those with overseas production advantages likely to continue leading the industry [3][5]. 3. Investment Recommendations - **Brand Apparel**: Focus on high-dividend and undervalued stocks. Recommended stocks include Hai Lan Home, Semir, and Fuanna for stable growth, and Bi Yi Le Fen and Bao Xi Niao for potential valuation recovery [3]. - **Textile Manufacturing**: Recommended stocks include Taihua New Materials and Zhejiang Natural for high growth, and Jian Sheng Group for significant Q3 performance improvement [3].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [3][5] - Target price adjusted to 61.12 RMB (previously 70.50 RMB) [3][5] Core Views - Performance below expectations due to high gold prices impacting terminal sales and franchisee purchasing willingness [2][3] - Gross margin under pressure due to increased discounts and higher proportion of gold bars in sales [3] - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 126.23 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 41.89% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 3.72 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 46.2% [3] - State-owned enterprise reforms are progressing, with potential for performance elasticity [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 525.82 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 15.28% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.76 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.60% [3] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 6.52%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points [3] - Net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 2.95%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [3] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 3.82/4.21/4.57 RMB, down from previous estimates of 4.70/5.20/5.70 RMB [3] Sales and Profitability - Sales structure and promotional discounts have put pressure on gross margins [3] - Operating expense ratio increased by 1.03 percentage points to 2.61% in Q3 2024 [3] - Sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios increased by +0.27pct/+0.60pct/+0.03pct/+0.14pct respectively [3] State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - The company is advancing comprehensive reforms under the "Double Hundred Action" initiative [3] - Implementation of a professional manager system is expected to enhance performance elasticity [3] Market and Valuation - Current stock price is 49.15 RMB [5] - 52-week price range is 47.10-86.19 RMB [6] - Market capitalization is 25.711 billion RMB [6] - PE ratio for 2024 is 12.87x, with a PB ratio of 2.01x [10] Industry Comparison - Comparable companies include China Gold, Caibai, Laopu Gold, and Mankalun, with an average 2024 PE of 20.44x [11] - The company's 2024 PE valuation is set at 16x, lower than the industry average [11]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating with a target price of CNY 10.53, up from CNY 9.63, based on a 13x PE for 2025 [2][4] Core Views - Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, driven by investment income and fair value changes, with net profit up 65.9% YoY to CNY 1.09 billion [2] - Revenue for Q3 2024 increased by 8.8% YoY to CNY 8.69 billion, while 1-3Q24 revenue reached CNY 22.4 billion, up 2.2% YoY [2] - Investment income in Q3 2024 was CNY 520 million, up CNY 150 million YoY, with non-joint venture income contributing CNY 210 million, up CNY 170 million YoY [2] - Fair value changes in Q3 2024 resulted in a net gain of CNY -40 million, an improvement of CNY 230 million YoY [2] - Core business profit (excluding investment income and fair value changes) in Q3 2024 was CNY 1.07 billion, up 30.6% YoY [2] - Electricity generation in Q3 2024 reached 17.4 billion kWh, up 15.9% YoY, with gas-fired power generation up 29.7% YoY to 3.6 billion kWh [2] - The company has consistently paid dividends for 31 years since its IPO in 1993, with cumulative dividends totaling CNY 22.5 billion [2] Financial Summary - 2024E revenue is projected at CNY 29.35 billion, up 0.7% YoY, with net profit expected to reach CNY 3.93 billion, up 13.7% YoY [3] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at CNY 0.80, up from CNY 0.71 in 2023A [3] - ROE is expected to remain stable at around 10.5% in 2024E, slightly higher than 10.3% in 2023A [3] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease to 10.73x in 2024E from 12.20x in 2023A [3] Market Data - The company's market cap is CNY 42.19 billion, with a 52-week price range of CNY 5.77-9.24 [5] - The current price is CNY 8.62, with a 12-month absolute return of 53% and a relative return of 45% compared to the index [5][8] Balance Sheet Highlights - Shareholders' equity stands at CNY 37.19 billion, with a book value per share of CNY 7.60 [6] - The net debt ratio is 41.54%, indicating moderate leverage [6] Industry Comparison - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is 9.9x, with Shenneng's PE at 11.1x, slightly higher than peers [10] - Shenneng's 2025E EPS of CNY 0.78 is higher than peers like GD Power (CNY 0.51) and Huaneng Power (CNY 0.83) [10]