股 票 研 究 ——迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）2024 年三季报点评 [table_Authors]訾猛(分析师) 021-38676442 zimeng@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880513120002 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | 李美仪 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38038667 | | | limeiyi026738@gtjas.com | | | S0880524080002 | | 本报告导读： 公司三季度业绩低于预期，主因需求偏弱的环境下部分产品及区域增速下滑拖累收 入，预计洞藏仍保持快于整体增长，推动盈利能力持续提升。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：维持增持评级。公司 Q3 业绩不及预期，部分产品和区 域销售承压，洞藏系列增速仍领先，结构升级驱动下公司盈利能力 有望提升，考虑消费趋势变化及徽酒竞争格局，下调 2024-26 年 EPS 至 3.31 元（前值 3.66 元）、3.78 元（4.64 元）、4.42 元（5.84 元）， 参考 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 74.7 RMB for 2025, up from the previous target of 66.35 RMB [2][4] Core Views - The company's performance fell short of expectations due to the downturn in the 3C and lithium battery sectors, with revenue and net profit declining significantly in Q3 2024 [2] - Despite short-term pressures, the company is making high investments in R&D and expanding its product portfolio, positioning itself for future growth [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 733 million RMB, down 13.32% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 132 million RMB, down 35.58% YoY [2] - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 64.23%, down 2.1 percentage points YoY, and net profit margin was 17.99%, down 6.22 percentage points YoY [2] Industry and Market Impact - The 3C and lithium battery sectors contributed 354 million RMB and 112 million RMB in revenue respectively in H1 2024, down 8.75% and 37.37% YoY [2] - The company is focusing on improving product standardization and expanding into new industries and markets, including overseas markets like Vietnam and India [2] R&D and Product Development - R&D expenditure for Q1-Q3 2024 was 156 million RMB, accounting for 21.33% of revenue [2] - The company has made significant breakthroughs in both hardware and software, including the launch of an upgraded AI platform and increased use of self-produced cameras [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow to 1,385 million RMB in 2025 and 1,677 million RMB in 2026, with net profit projected to reach 305 million RMB and 424 million RMB respectively [3] - EPS for 2025 and 2026 is forecasted at 2.49 RMB and 3.47 RMB, respectively [3] Valuation and Comparables - The company's 2025 PE is estimated at 30x, in line with industry peers, with a target price of 74.7 RMB [2][10] - The company's market cap is 7,411 million RMB, with a current price of 60.63 RMB [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for China Nuclear Power (601985) [2] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 is in line with expectations, with revenue of 56.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% [7][8] - The decline in performance is attributed to a drop in both volume and price in the electricity business, alongside increased expenses [7] - The company has ample construction and reserve capacity, indicating potential long-term value [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 19.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, and a net profit of 3.05 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 46.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company's financial expense ratio increased to 9.3%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [7] Future Outlook - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company has 18 units under construction or approved for construction, with a total capacity of 20.6 GW [7] - The Jiangsu Xuwei Phase I project has received approval for the construction of two Hualong One reactors and one high-temperature gas-cooled reactor, totaling 3.1 GW [7] - The company expects to commission five units in 2027, marking a peak in operational capacity [7] Earnings Forecast - The EPS estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted to 0.58, 0.62, and 0.66 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.62, 0.67, and 0.72 yuan [7] - The target price has been revised down to 12.40 yuan from 12.73 yuan, based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance showed a slight decline quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to foreign exchange and international oil price fluctuations, yet it still reflects the resilience of the industry leader [4][5]. - The report slightly lowers the earnings forecast, projecting EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.85, 2.44, and 3.16 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.98, 2.62, and 3.45 yuan [5]. - The target price remains at 36.70 yuan, with the current price at 29.98 yuan [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.265 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 314 million yuan, up 10.95% year-on-year [5]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported operating revenue of 1.445 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.93%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.40%. The net profit for Q3 was 94 million yuan, down 6.47% year-on-year and 16.95% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 20.60%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net margin was 6.34%, down 1.33 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5]. Industry Outlook - The anti-aging agent industry is expected to improve as demand is anticipated to rise with subsequent policy support, following a year of concentrated capacity investment that led to a significant decline in average profitability [5]. - The new capacity from the company's second phase of production is expected to help offset price declines in lubricant additives, which are closely tied to crude oil prices [5]. - The company's acquisition of IPI is progressing well, with domestic production lines for PI materials being prepared in Yixing, expected to be operational by 2025. The PI products are projected to benefit from the growth in flexible displays and flexible circuit boards [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] - The target price has been raised to 42.00 yuan from the previous 31.81 yuan [4][6] Core Insights - The company's profit growth exceeded market expectations, with a reported revenue of 2.717 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.22%, and a net profit of 203 million yuan, up 28.21% year-on-year [4][6] - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 1.71, 1.99, and 2.20 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting significant growth [4][6] - The report highlights the company's multi-category and multi-channel strategy as a key driver for excess returns in the baking industry [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a single-quarter revenue of 936 million yuan, a decrease of 1.11% year-on-year, while net profit for the quarter was 68 million yuan, an increase of 35.07% year-on-year [4] - The revenue breakdown shows that frozen baked goods accounted for approximately 58% of total revenue, down about 7% year-on-year, while baking raw materials contributed about 42%, up approximately 30% year-on-year [4] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 31.34%, a slight decrease of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 7.14%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing management efficiency and expanding its product offerings across various channels, including retail and food service [4] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company as it continues to penetrate the baking industry and leverage its product portfolio to outperform competitors [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][17]. Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations with significant growth in contract liabilities. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.143 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 271 million yuan, up 9.15% year-on-year [4][3]. - The company is focusing on mechanical seals while continuously expanding into rubber and plastic seals and special pumps and valves markets. Increased R&D investment and acquisitions are driving upstream integration [3][4]. Financial Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 47.61%, down 2.61 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 23.78%, down 1.35 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in gross margin is primarily due to the increased proportion of low-margin incremental business [4]. - As of September 2024, the company's contract liabilities reached 101 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.53% [4]. - The company plans to maintain EPS forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 1.89 yuan, 2.24 yuan, and 2.65 yuan respectively, with a target price of 42.56 yuan based on a PE ratio of 19 times for 2025 [4][5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its competitive edge in the mechanical seal sector despite a slowdown in new projects in the petrochemical industry and increased competition. It has achieved notable success in offshore pipeline projects [4]. - The subsidiary, Yutai Technology, is seeing initial success in cost reduction and efficiency improvements while actively exploring markets in coal mining and shield tunneling [4]. - The acquisition of KS GmbH is progressing, which will enhance supply chain stability by integrating upstream laminated materials and guiding rings [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) [3][9] - The target price is raised to 264.10 CNY from the previous 249.50 CNY [3][9] Core Insights - The company's performance meets expectations, with significant growth in the "Bup Shui La" product line and an increasingly refined national layout [2] - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.558 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 45.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.707 billion CNY, up 63.53% year-on-year [9] - The revenue for Q3 alone was 4.685 billion CNY, reflecting a 47.29% year-on-year growth, with net profit reaching 977 million CNY, a 78.42% increase year-on-year [9] - The "Bup Shui La" product line saw a remarkable year-on-year revenue growth of 300%, increasing its revenue share to 15.7% in Q3 2024 from 5.8% in Q3 2023 [9] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 11.263 billion CNY in 2023 to 16.233 billion CNY in 2024, representing a 44.1% increase [8] - Net profit is expected to rise from 2.040 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.279 billion CNY in 2024, marking a 60.8% increase [8] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 reached 45.81%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 20.85%, up 3.64 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a net debt ratio of -43.99% and a price-to-book ratio of 16.2 [5][9] Market Position and Growth Potential - The energy drink category aligns with the fast-paced lifestyle trend, and Dongpeng is enhancing its market share through high cost-performance strategies and expanding distribution channels [9] - The "Bup Shui La" product is positioned to meet the growing health demands of consumers, particularly among physically active individuals, contributing to its rapid growth [9]

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——招商南油 2024 年三季报点评 Q3 业绩增长超预期，再次展现经营能力 招商南油(601975) [Table_Industry] 运输/工业 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|--------------------| | | | | | | [table_Authors] 岳鑫 ( 分析师 ) | 尹嘉骐 ( 分析师 ) | | | 0755-23976758 | 021-38038322 | | | yuexin@gtjas.com | yinjiaqi@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880514030006 | S0880524030004 | 本报告导读： 2024Q3 地缘油价致油运市场经历压力测试，公司单季业绩仍同比增长超两成，再次 展现优秀经营能力。预计未来成品油运高景气持续将超预期 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][3]. Core Views - The company's performance remains robust despite external pressures, with steady global capacity expansion and orderly business boundary growth, leading to counter-cyclical revenue growth [3]. - The earnings forecast has been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2024-2026 revised to 1.78, 2.06, and 2.37 yuan respectively, and the target price raised to 39.44 yuan based on a 22.2x PE ratio for 2024 [3]. - The company is experiencing stable revenue growth, with expected growth rates of around 10% for key categories such as consumer electronics, tobacco, and alcohol packaging, while eco-friendly products are expected to grow significantly above the company average [3]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements are being implemented, with Q3 2024 gross and net profit margins at 27.6% and 13.0%, respectively, showing a slight year-on-year decrease but a quarter-on-quarter improvement [3]. - The company is expanding its international customer base, with production facilities established in over 10 countries, and aims to increase overseas capacity from approximately 20% to over 40% [3]. - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a cash dividend of 870 million yuan in 2023, a payout ratio of 60.3%, and a projected dividend yield of around 5% for 2024 [3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 17.887 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, and net profit expected to reach 1.652 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.9% increase [9]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to grow from 22.186 billion yuan in 2023 to 23.667 billion yuan in 2024 [9]. - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 9.7% for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 13.5% [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Baoli Food (603170) with a target price of 15.84, up from the previous forecast of 14.36 [4][7]. Core Views - The performance of Baoli Food meets expectations, with significant improvement in sales of its "Kongke" product line. The company is expected to achieve excess returns driven by the recovery in dining demand and expansion in product categories and channels [3][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, Baoli Food reported revenue of 1.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 173 million, a decrease of 28.01%. The single-quarter revenue for Q3 was 657 million, up 4.06% year-on-year, with a net profit of 65 million, down 13.45% year-on-year [7]. - The revenue breakdown for Q3 shows that the "Kongke" product line and light cooking solutions saw revenue growth of 0.7% and 9.64% respectively, while beverage and dessert ingredients experienced a decline of 5.69% due to weak dining demand [7]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 31.28%, down 1.06 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased promotional efforts for the "Kongke" products. The net profit margin was 9.9%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is expected to accelerate its market share in the Western-style dining supply chain, supported by the resolution of production capacity constraints and enhanced R&D capabilities. The "Kongke" brand is anticipated to benefit from the trend towards healthier eating [7]. - The report highlights that the company added 51 new distributors in Q3 2024, indicating a successful expansion into new channels such as offline group purchases and convenience stores [7]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.58, 0.72, and 0.89 respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -23%, +26%, and +23% [7]. - The estimated revenue for 2024 is 2.586 billion, with a growth rate of 9.2%, and net profit is projected at 231 million, a decrease of 23.3% [8]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a 22X PE ratio for 2025 based on comparisons with similar companies, leading to an upward revision of the target price to 15.84 [7]. - The current market capitalization of Baoli Food is 5.224 billion, with a price-to-book ratio of 4.0 [5][6].