相关研究 证券分析师 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 08 日 2025 年 12 月沪深 300、上证 50 和科创 50 等指数调整名单预测 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 根据中证指数规则，沪深 300、中证 500、上证 50 和科创 50 等指数将于 2025 年 12 月 15 日进行成分股调整。被动型指数基金跟踪指数持仓，在指数调样日机构同步进行调仓， 对被调入、调出股票收益率将有一定影响。 ⚫ 需要注意的是，指数调整从数据公布到正式生效，通常需要经过半个月左右的时间。期间 指数基金的调整行为并不会直接受到短期市场波动的影响，指数调整与市场短期投机行 为无关。这一过程涉及多个阶段，包括指数编制机构的数据发布和市场的逐步调整，因此 相应的资金流动和市场反应有较为充分的准备期。 ⚫ 本次沪深 300 预计会有 11 只成分股 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anker Innovations is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 21.02 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 1.93 billion yuan, up 31.3% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that the domestic and overseas revenue growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was 22% and 28% respectively, with the third quarter showing a 19.9% increase in revenue [2] - The report anticipates a recovery in the charging and energy storage business as the impact of previous product recalls diminishes and new products are launched [2] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the gross margin was 44.6%, with a net profit margin of 9.8%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points [3] - The company expects net profits for 2025 to reach 2.6 billion yuan, with projected growth rates of 22.93% for 2025, 25.98% for 2026, and 24.20% for 2027 [3][9] - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating a revenue growth rate of 34.32% for 2025 and a projected revenue of 33.19 billion yuan [9][10] Market Position - Anker Innovations maintains a strong market position in the smart innovation sector, with its eufy NVR S4 Max security system ranking first in sales in the UK, second in the US, and third in Germany [2] - The report notes that the charging and energy storage business may face challenges due to previous product recalls and high base effects from last year's natural disasters [2] Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the long-term investment value of Anker Innovations, despite short-term disruptions from tariffs and product recalls [3] - The anticipated launch of new products, such as the Anker Prime series and Anker SOLIX C1000 Gen2, is expected to drive growth in the charging and energy storage segment [2]

商业贸易行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 关税缓和，看好跨境电商 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：出海是一门长期主义的征程，跨境电商在外贸中的渗透率正持续提升，继续 看好板块中业绩韧性强的头部企业以及业绩边际改善的品种。 跨境 B2B：相关标的：小商品城(600415，未评级)、焦点科技(002315，未评级)。 跨境 B2C：相关标的：安克创新(300866，未评级)、绿联科技(301606，未评级)、致欧 科技(301376，未评级)、吉宏股份(002803，未评级)、华凯易佰(300592，未评级)。 其他出海链：苏美达(600710，未评级)。 风险提示 关税政策变动、行业竞争加剧等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 商业贸易行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 06 日 看好（维持） 陈笑 执业证书编号：S0860525100005 chenxiao2@orientsec.com.cn 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 021-63326320 ⚫ 中美经贸团队通过吉隆坡磋商，达成成果共识。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司点评丨安克创新（300866.SZ） [Table_Title] 关税扰动下营收韧性高增，经营性利润较优增长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025年三季报：2025年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 210.19 亿元，同比增长 27.79%， 实现归母净利润 19.33 亿元，同比增长 31.34%，实现扣非归母净利润 14.83 亿元，同比增长 13.82%。单三季度来看，公司实现营业收入 81.52 亿元，同比增长 19.88%，实现归母净利润 7.66 亿元，同比增长 27.76%，实现扣非归母净利润 5.21 亿元，同比下滑 2.92%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 李锦 杨洋 SAC：S0490517070017 SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490517070012 SFC：BUW408 SFC：BUV258 SFC：BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 安克创新（3008 ...

Group 1 - The service industry is expected to benefit from favorable policies, with a significant increase in service consumption anticipated in 2026 due to continuous policy support and demand dividends [3][7][11] - The report highlights the structural growth in emotional value and symbolic consumption, particularly in the IP toy industry, which is rapidly realizing commercial value [3][7][9] - The retail industry is undergoing a transformation towards a decentralized model, with traditional retail facing intense competition and new channels like discount stores and community supermarkets emerging [3][7][9] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing holiday arrangements and integrating cultural tourism to stimulate demand, particularly for families with children [12][15] - The service consumption structure in China shows significant room for growth, with the current per capita service consumption being much lower than that of developed countries [29][30][32] - The tea and coffee beverage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size expected to increase significantly, driven by consumer demand in lower-tier cities [56][58][59] Group 3 - The online travel agency (OTA) market is projected to maintain stable profit margins, with companies like Trip.com leading in growth despite slight slowdowns in overseas markets [48][54] - The hotel industry is seeing a gradual improvement in operating data, with a narrowing decline in revenue per available room (RevPAR) expected to continue [37][40][43] - The report indicates that the demand for travel and tourism services is stable, with business travel being a significant source of fluctuations in demand [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the recommended stocks in the consumer sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the coming years [7][11][12][13][14][16][18][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights nine advantageous sectors within the consumer industry, including agriculture, retail, social services, automotive, textiles and apparel, light industry, food, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, with specific stock recommendations for each sector [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the expected growth in net profits for the recommended companies from 2025 to 2027, with significant increases projected for several firms, indicating strong future performance [11][12][13][14][16][18][19]. Summary by Relevant Sections Agriculture - Recommended Stock: Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 154.9 billion, 175.7 billion, 225.5 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 16, and 12 [11][29]. Retail - Recommended Stock: Shangmei Co., Ltd. (上美股份) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 10.9 billion, 13.6 billion, 15.8 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 29, 23, and 20 [12][29]. Social Services - Recommended Stock: China Duty Free Group (中国中免) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 36.7 billion, 41.7 billion, 47.8 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 43, 38, and 33 [13][29]. Automotive - Recommended Stock: Top Group (拓普集团) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 28.0 billion, 33.7 billion, 41.0 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 45.7, 38.1, and 31.3 [14][29]. Textiles and Apparel - Recommended Stock: Huali Group (华利集团) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 33.6 billion, 40.7 billion, 47.2 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 20.5, 17.0, and 14.6 [16][29]. Light Industry - Recommended Stock: Craft Home (匠心家居) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 9.5 billion, 12.3 billion, 15.4 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 17, and 13 [17][29]. Food - Recommended Stock: Shanxi Fenjiu (山西汾酒) - Projected net profits for 2025-2026: 10.09, 10.93 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 19 and 17 [18][29]. Home Appliances - Recommended Stock: Anker Innovations (安克创新) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 26.57 billion, 31.98 billion, 38.95 billion CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 23.59, 19.60, and 16.09 [19][29]. Pharmaceuticals - Recommended Stock: Innovent Biologics (信达生物) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027: 0.34, 0.69, 1.35 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 232.2, 116.5, and 59.3 [19][29].

浙商证券研报指出，安克创新收入稳健25Q1-3同增28%，扣非利润受资产减值等因素拖累。公司坚定创 新研发投入，25Q3三大品类均有新品推出。安克创新为中国消费电子品牌出海的标杆，产品线逐步丰 富完善，独立站收入稳定提升，彰显公司强品牌心智，虽短期受召回产品等因素影响，但公司坚定长期 主义观念，多举措降低关税风险。维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Insights - Anker Innovations has announced a recall of power banks and Bluetooth speakers in the Japanese market, raising industry concerns [1] - Since 2025, Anker Innovations has recalled over 2.38 million products globally, with direct costs estimated between 432 million to 557 million yuan [1] Group 1 - The recall announcement has attracted significant attention within the industry [1] - The total number of recalled products since 2025 highlights potential operational challenges for the company [1] - The estimated direct costs associated with these recalls could impact the company's financial performance [1]

Group 1: Industry Trends - Investment, trade, and technology are currently the most popular directions for Chinese companies expanding into Dubai [2] - TikTok's monthly active users in Southeast Asia have surpassed 460 million, with Indonesia leading at 160 million [5] - Taobao has launched 2.1 million new products globally for this year's Double 11 shopping festival, aiming to enhance the international competitiveness of domestic brands [5] Group 2: Company Developments - Pop Mart opened its first store in the Middle East at Hamad International Airport in Doha, Qatar, marking its global expansion strategy [6] - OPPO launched its Find X9 series flagship smartphone in Spain, priced at €1,299 (approximately ¥10,700), aligning with the trend of increasing average smartphone prices [6] - Meituan's international delivery brand Keeta has officially started operations in Abu Dhabi, expanding its presence in the UAE market [6] Group 3: Financial Performance - Anker Innovations reported a revenue of ¥21.019 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, with overseas business contributing over 96% of total revenue [7] - Geely has officially entered the UK market with the launch of its first pure electric SUV, the EX5, and aims to sell 100,000 units by 2030 [7] - BYD unveiled its K-EV model at the 2025 Tokyo Mobility Show, introducing a dual strategy of pure electric and hybrid vehicles [7] Group 4: Investment and Financing - Yuan Tian Biological received strategic investment from Toyota Tsusho, aiming to penetrate the automotive supply chain [9] - Seres plans to raise over HK$13 billion through a global offering of H shares, with expansion plans across multiple international markets [9] - JBD completed over ¥1 billion in financing, setting a record for the MicroLED micro-display sector, with applications in nearly 50 smart glasses [10] Group 5: Policy and Market Initiatives - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will release a directory of key cross-border e-commerce enterprises to promote healthy development in the sector [11] - KrASIA launched new English media services aimed at Chinese companies going abroad, enhancing global brand visibility [11]

投资要点 收入稳健25Q1-3 同增28%，扣非利润受资产减值等因素拖累1）25Q1-3：收入210 亿（+28%，以下均为 同比），归母净利19.33 亿（+31%），扣非净利14.8 亿（+14%）； 2）25 单Q3：收入81.5 亿（+20%），归母净利7.66 亿（+28%），扣非净利5.21亿（-3%）。其中 2025Q3 公允价值变动收益2.33 亿元，24Q3 为-0.3 亿元；资产减值损失-0.5 亿元，24Q3 为0.1 亿元；投 资收益0.6 亿元。 汇率及运费波动、产品推新速度不及预期、行业竞争加剧等 坚定创新研发投入，25Q3 三大品类均有新品推出1） 充电储能：小充，9 月于IFA 展会推出新一代 Anker Prime 系列，迄今为止最先进的多设备充电产品家族，整合升级Anker Nano、此外推出Anker × 《黑神话：悟空》联名系列产品。储能，IFA 展会上发布新一代家庭能源系统，支持多台阳台光储系统 并联，可实现14.4kW 光伏输入、4.8kW 交流输出功率及64.5kWh 储能容量，满足全屋日常用电需求；9 月，全球首款搭载手势控制的智能充电桩正式登陆欧洲，亦在北美发 ...