[Table_Main] 行业研究|电信服务 证券研究报告 电信服务行业周报 2024 年 08 月 05 日 [Table_Title] 北美云厂资本开支上行，高轨互联网卫星成功发射 ——通信行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场整体行情及通信细分板块行情回顾 周行情：本周（2024.07.29-2024.08.02）上证综指上涨 0.50%，深 证成指回调0.51%，创业板回调1.28%。本周申万通信回调 0.12%。 考虑通信行业的高景气度延续，AI、5.5G 及卫星通信持续推动行业 发展，我们给予通信及电子行业"推荐"评级。 细分行业：本周（2024.07.29-2024.08.02）通信板块三级子行业 中，通信工程及服务上涨幅度最高，涨幅为 6.04%，通信线缆及配套 回调幅度最高，跌幅为 3.60%，本周各细分板块主要呈上涨趋势。 个股方面：本周（2024.07.29-2024.08.02）通信板块涨幅分析方 面 ， 欧比特（ 39.96% ） 、 高 鸿 股 份 （ 15.71% ） 、 纵 横 通 信 （14.37%）涨幅分列前三。 北美云厂业绩及资本开支 Meta：Q2 ...

[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 证券研究报告 美国衰退交易有点早 本周关注： 7 月中国 PMI 49.4，较前值回落 0.1 个百分点，生产和新订单分项延续 回落，但这不用太多交易，PMI 在 7 月本身就存在季节性上的不利影响，当 前基本面向上的弹性虽有限，但也未见大规模下行。 按照原材料购进价格去推算，7 月 PPI 同比大概率会在-1%左右，维持震 荡态势。后续若美联储继续紧缩自己的数量政策，商品的压力是确定的，悬念 只是幅度与节奏，但当前，商品新一轮下跌趋势还没在宏观上走出来。 30 大中城市 7 月销售面积同比-17%，降幅继续收窄，其可能的原因是开 发商把更多的资源挪到了现房开发端，现货供应增加导致销售改善，但从现 房的出清率看，需求仍然是个问题。 人民币汇率的升值有基本面的原因，但也不全是基本面的原因，但至少 短时，美国的降息交易给汇率提供了升值基础，但从基本面的角度，人民币币 值可能有所高估。 美国 PMI 和债券收益率破位，这源于美国糟糕的就业数据，但我们应注 意三点，一是美国背后的信用投放还在加速，比如 M2 在继续上升；二是美国 这一轮的就业表现的确比基本面好，这就导致后续存 ...

Market Overview - On August 2, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.92%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.38%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.66%. The total market turnover was 726.135 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.374 billion yuan from the previous trading day. A total of 995 stocks rose, while 4189 stocks declined [2][12]. Market Style and Sector Performance - Most market styles experienced declines, with the growth style suffering the largest drop. The consumption style saw slight gains. Non-fund heavy stocks outperformed fund-heavy stocks, and value stocks outperformed growth stocks. Large-cap stocks performed better than small-cap stocks [2][14]. - Among the 30 sectors, the top performers were Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (up 1.08%), and Pharmaceuticals (up 0.82%). The worst performers included Communication (down 2.99%), Electronics (down 2.75%), and Computers (down 2.45%) [2][14]. Fund Flow Performance - On August 2, 2024, the main funds had a net outflow of 28.675 billion yuan. Specifically, there was a net outflow of 10.944 billion yuan from large orders and 17.731 billion yuan from big orders, while small orders saw a continuous net inflow of 28.913 billion yuan [2][16]. - Northbound funds had a net outflow of 3.230 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Stock Connect seeing a net outflow of 2.435 billion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Connect a net outflow of 0.795 billion yuan. Southbound funds also experienced a net outflow of 1.896 billion Hong Kong dollars [2][16]. ETF Fund Flow Performance - On August 2, 2024, most ETFs, including the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF, saw an increase in trading volume compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes for various ETFs were as follows: SSE 50 ETF (2.269 billion yuan), CSI 300 ETF (4.492 billion yuan), and others, with notable changes in trading volume [2][18]. Global Market Performance - On August 1, 2024, major European stock indices fell, with the DAX down 2.30%, the FTSE 100 down 1.01%, and the CAC 40 down 2.14%. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.21%, the S&P 500 fell by 1.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 2.30%. Asian markets also saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 2.08% and the Nikkei 225 down 5.81% [2][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Luxshare Precision [3][9]. Core Views - The report highlights that Apple's FY24Q3 performance exceeded market expectations, with revenue of $85.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and an EPS of $1.4, reflecting a 11.1% increase [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for Luxshare Precision as a core supplier in Apple's supply chain, driven by the anticipated demand from AI product integration and the upcoming iPhone 16 series [3][20]. - The report projects Luxshare's net profit for 2024 and 2025 to be 13.716 billion yuan and 17.547 billion yuan, respectively, with a target price of 56.35 yuan based on a 23x PE ratio for 2025 [3][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Data and Valuation - For FY24E, total revenue is projected at 231,905.46 million yuan, with a growth rate of 20.35%. The net profit is expected to be 10,952.66 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 25.23% [4][26]. - EPS is forecasted to be 1.54 yuan for FY24E, with a P/E ratio of 22.37 [4][26]. Product Performance - iPhone revenue for FY24Q3 was $39.3 billion, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, but showed positive growth when excluding currency impacts. The iPad saw a 24% year-on-year increase in revenue, driven by new AI-driven products [11][10]. - The services segment achieved revenue of $24.2 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential from AI integration [11][10]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that Apple's revenue growth will maintain a similar trajectory in FY24Q4, with service revenue expected to continue double-digit growth [17][18]. - The report projects that by 2025, iPhone sales could reach 255 million units, representing an 11.4% year-on-year increase, supported by the ongoing AI integration and product iterations [18][20]. Investment Recommendation - The report recommends focusing on Luxshare Precision as a key player in the Apple supply chain, with expectations of robust growth in mobile assembly and module businesses due to increased demand from AI-driven products [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luxshare Precision (立讯精密) with a target price of 56.35 CNY over a 6-month period [1][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Luxshare Precision is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for iPhones driven by Apple Intelligence, with projected net profits of 13.716 billion CNY for 2024 and 17.547 billion CNY for 2025, reflecting growth rates of 25% and 28% respectively [8][25]. - The anticipated shipment volume for the iPhone 16 series is estimated to reach 58-60 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 23% [25]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential in the automotive sector, with expected revenue growth of nearly 50% due to collaborations with key clients [25]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY24, the total revenue is projected to be 279.1 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 20.35% [10]. - The net profit for FY24 is forecasted at 13.716 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 25.23% [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.91 CNY for FY24 [10]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the integration of AI in Apple's products will catalyze a new replacement cycle for iPhones, potentially increasing the installed base and market share [20][21]. - The report projects that the iPhone sales volume for 2025 could reach 255 million units, reflecting an 11.4% year-on-year increase [21]. Business Segments - In the mobile assembly business, Luxshare is expected to benefit from the demand for the iPhone 16 series, with significant contributions to net profit growth from this segment [25]. - The module business is projected to see revenue growth driven by increased market share with major clients, expected to contribute an additional 27.8 billion CNY in revenue for FY24 [25]. - The report also notes that the communication and data center sectors are expected to grow by 30-40% this year, driven by strong demand in server business [25].

[Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 媒体Ⅱ行业周报、月报 2024 年 08 月 02 日 [Table_Title] WAIC 顺利落幕，暑期端手游新品竞争激烈 ——传媒互联网行业月报（2024.7.1-2024.7.31） [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 月度涨跌情况（2024.7.1-2024.7.31，下同）：传媒行业（申万）下跌 1.36%，排名子行业第 17 名，同期沪深 300 跌 0.57%，上证指数跌 0.97%，创业板指涨 0.28%。 重点板块跟踪 人工智能：WAIC 顺利召开，产业端欣欣向荣，OpenAI 发布 GPT-4o mini。海外 Meta 发布 3D Gen AI 模型和 Llama 3.1 开源大语言模 型，多模态模型拓展至 3D 生成，OpenAI 发布 AI 模型 GPT-4o mini， 并向部分付费订阅用户开放 GPT-4o 语音模式，在应用落地端持续努 力。国内，商汤发布首个"可控"人物视频生成大模型 Vimi；快手文 生图"可图"开源，"可灵"上线网页版，构建完善的多模态生成模型 生态；应用端，智谱 AI ...

行业务党|可选消费|媒体 II 媒体 ll 行业周报、月报 证券所究报告 2024 年 08 月 02 日 WAIC 顺利落幕，毒病病手將新品竞争激烈 ——传媒互联网行业月报 (2024.7.1-2024.7.31) 摄仓卖点： ● 月度添跌㎡况 (2024.7.1-2024.7.31, 下同): 传媒行业 (中方) 下跌 1.36%，排名子行业家 17 名，同期沪深 300 跌 0.57%，上证将数跌 0.97%，创业板 指示 0.28%。 ● 人工有能：WAIC 顺利名开，产业减欣欣向栄，OpenAI 复本 GPT-4o mini。海外 Meta 发布 3D Gen Al 模型称 Llama 3.1 开源大话言模 型，多模态模型花质至 3D 生态，OpenAI 发布 AI 模型 GPT-4o mini， 并向部分付费订阅用户开放 GPT-4o 济奇模式，在应用落地站持续努 力。国内，奇汤发布言个"可控"人勃视频生成大楼型 Vimi：铁手文 生困 "可困" 开源，"可买" 上线问页版，构建免者的多候态生点模型 生态：应用站，有诸 AI 发布说频生态工具"济彩"。后续查点催化方 商，９月，阿里巴巴将狼出 AI ...

[Table_Title] 每日复盘 证券研究报告 20240801 市场复盘：指数震荡回调，航天逆市走强 报告要点： 2024 年 8 月 1 日指数震荡回调，航天逆市走强。上证指数下跌 0.22%，深证成指下跌 0.92%，创业板指下跌 1.31%。市场成交额 7865.09 亿元，较上一交易日减少 1215.57 亿元。全市场 2169 只个股上涨，2858 只 个股下跌。 风格上看，大部分市场风格下跌。周期、消费、金融、成长风格均出现 不同程度下跌，消费风格跌幅最大，稳定风格上涨；非基金重仓股指数小幅 上涨，基金重仓股指数均大幅下跌；价值风格表现优于成长，中小盘风格表 现优于大盘。 分行业看，30 个中信一级行业普遍下跌；表现相对靠前的是：建筑 （0.74%），国防军工（0.57%），交通运输（0.52%）；表现相对靠后的是： 食品饮料（-2.25%），房地产（-2.15%），电力设备及新能源（-1.32%）。概 念板块方面，多数概念板块下跌，商业航天、高铁、低空经济等大幅上涨； 央企煤炭、白酒、炒股软件等大幅走低。 资金筹码方面，主力资金 8 月 1 日净流出 167.05 亿元。其中超大单净 流出 ...

[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|家庭与个人用品 证券研究报告 [Table_TargetPrice] 水羊股份(300740)公司点评报告 2024 年 08 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 24H1 利润承压，EDB 持续沉淀品牌资产 [Table_Invest]买入|维持 ——水羊股份(300740) 2024 年半年报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件： 公司发布 2024 年半年度报告。 点评： 销售费用高投放叠加投资收益变动致利润承压，产品结构优化带动毛 利率提升 24H1 公司实现营业收入 22.93 亿元，同比增长 0.14%，实现归属母公司净 利润 1.06 亿元，同比下降 25.74%，实现扣非归母净利润 1.19 亿元，同比 下降 19.07%。利润承压主要系公司聚焦品牌资产建设，加大了主要品牌的 品牌种草、市场投放等相关费用支出以及远期外汇合约到期影响投资收益 所致。盈利能力方面，24H1 公司毛利率为 61.48%，同比明显提升 4.57pct， 净利率为 4.77%，同比下降 1.64pct。费用端来看，24H1 公司销售费用率 为 46.84%，同比 ...

Market Overview - On July 31, 2024, the market experienced a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.37%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.51. The total market turnover reached 908.066 billion yuan, an increase of 304.561 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. A total of 5,048 stocks rose while 254 stocks fell [2][12]. Market Style and Sector Performance - All market styles saw a general increase, with cyclical, consumer, financial, and growth styles rising significantly, while stable styles experienced a slight decline. The non-fund heavy stock index outperformed the fund heavy stock index, and the growth style outperformed the value style. Small and mid-cap stocks also outperformed large-cap stocks [2][17]. - Among the 30 first-level industries of CITIC, all showed an upward trend. The top-performing sectors included consumer services (5.26%), comprehensive finance (5.06%), and pharmaceuticals (4.66%). Conversely, the banking sector (-0.29%), electric power and public utilities (-0.25%), and construction (0.89%) lagged behind [2][17]. Fund Flow Performance - On July 31, 2024, the main funds saw a net inflow of 16.652 billion yuan, with large orders contributing 12.896 billion yuan and small orders continuing to see a net outflow of 0.598 billion yuan. Northbound funds also experienced a significant net inflow of 19.580 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing 11.363 billion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Connect 8.217 billion yuan [20][21]. ETF Fund Flow Performance - On July 31, 2024, most ETFs, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, saw an increase in trading volume compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes for various ETFs were as follows: 2.485 billion yuan for the Shanghai 50 ETF, 5.353 billion yuan for the CSI 300 ETF, and 2.878 billion yuan for the CSI 1000 ETF, with notable changes in trading volumes [3][24]. Global Market Performance - On July 30, 2024, European stock indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX rising by 0.49% and the UK's FTSE 100 declining by 0.22%. In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.50%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.50% and 1.28%, respectively. Asian markets generally rose on July 31, with the Hang Seng Index up by 2.01% and the Nikkei 225 by 1.49% [25][26].