[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/家用电器与器具/家用电器 证券研究报告 海尔智家（600690）公司半年报点评 2024 年 09 月 09 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------|---------------| | 股票数据 | | | 09 [ Table_StockInfo 月 09 日收盘价（元） ] | 24.32 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 19.86-33.00 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 9438/6309 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 237652/237652 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《收入稳健增长，分红持续提升》 | 2024.04.17 | | 《多品牌布局优势，收入利润稳健提升》 | | | 2023.10.13 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 海尔智家 海通综指 -18.33% -8.33% 1.6 ...

Industry Overview - The machinery industry in 2024Q2 showed a mixed performance across sub-sectors, with shipbuilding, construction machinery, and forklifts leading in revenue growth, while sectors like machine tools, robotics, and 3C equipment faced short-term pressure [1] - Shipbuilding saw the fastest year-on-year growth in net profit, exceeding 90%, while sectors like machine tools, robotics, and 3C equipment experienced declines [1] - The overall machinery industry's performance in 2024H1 and 2024Q2 was analyzed based on financial data from 81 listed companies across 9 sub-sectors, including construction machinery, rail equipment, oil services, and shipbuilding [16] Key Sub-Sector Performance Construction Machinery - Revenue growth for construction machinery companies in 2024Q2 was 4.48%, with net profit growth at 5.14% [18] - Despite short-term pressure, domestic demand is expected to recover due to counter-cyclical policies, and industry leaders are expanding overseas to mitigate domestic market fluctuations [38] Rail Equipment - Rail equipment companies saw a median revenue growth of -2.20% in 2024Q2, with net profit growth at -7.86% [18] - High-speed rail vehicle procurement and maintenance demand remain strong, with expectations for policy-driven equipment updates and increased exports [51] Oil Services - Oil services companies reported a median revenue growth of -4.71% in 2024Q2, with net profit growth at 2.94% [18] - Domestic energy security is driving the recovery of the oil services sector, with a focus on accelerating equipment exports [59] Shipbuilding - Shipbuilding companies experienced a median revenue growth of 10.73% in 2024Q2, with net profit growth soaring to 98.43% [18] - The sector is benefiting from a strong order book and faster delivery schedules, indicating a robust upward cycle [1] 3C Equipment - 3C equipment companies saw a median revenue growth of 15.31% in 2024Q2, but net profit growth declined by -10.87% [18] - The sector is expected to recover as consumer electronics enter a restocking cycle and new products are launched [2] Cost and Market Trends - Raw material costs, including steel and aluminum, have shown mixed trends, with steel prices declining and aluminum prices rising [3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and CCFI shipping index have shown fluctuations, with the BDI increasing by 65.81% year-on-year as of August 30, 2024 [3] - The machinery industry's valuation as of August 30, 2024, places it in the upper-middle range among sectors, with a rolling P/E ratio of 20.82 for the manufacturing sector [4] Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as shipbuilding, construction machinery, and rail equipment, driven by strong order books, policy support, and export potential [1][38][51] - The oil services sector is expected to benefit from domestic energy security initiatives and increased equipment exports [59]

[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/机械工业 证券研究报告 行业半年报 2024 年 09 月 09 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_AuthorInfo] 24Q2 成长板块总结：半导体设备、出口 消费链表现居前，新能源设备等行业承压 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： [Table_QuoteInfo] 资料来源：海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《船舶行业：南北船筹划重组；新接订单 高增》2024.09.04 《甘肃省印发电力现货市场规则，十部委 联合印发数字化绿色化协同转型发展实 施指南》2024.09.03 《国航、南航首架 C919 飞机正式入列， 关注国产大飞机成长提速》2024.09.04 分析师:赵玥炜 Tel:(021)23185630 Email:zyw13208@haitong.com 证书:S0850520070002 分析师:赵靖博 Tel:(021)23185625 Email:zjb13572@haitong.com 证书:S0850521100001 分析师:毛冠锦 Tel ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/建筑工程 证券研究报告 中国能建（601868）公司半年报点评 2024 年 09 月 09 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------| | 股票数据 | | | 09 [ Table_StockInfo 月 06 日收盘价（元） ] | 2.06 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 2.01-2.30 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 41691/14223 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 85884/48379 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《 Q4 扣非净利大增，新能源投建营加速发展》 | | | 2024.04.09 | | | 《 Q3 单季利润有所下滑，新能源、新产业加 | | | 速发展》 2023.11.22 | | | | | | 《收入、新签继续高增， Q2 降 ...

[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/环保 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024 年 09 月 09 日 [Table_AuthorInfo] [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -24.90% -18.91% -12.91% -6.91% -0.92% 5.08% 环 保 海通综指 2023/9 2023/12 2024/3 2024/6 资料来源：海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《推动能源设备更新；国内原料收油成本 下跌》2024.08.29 《推动能源设备更新，以标准促进技术改 造》2024.08.25 《坚持绿色低碳发展，推进汽车以旧换 新》2024.08.21 分析师:戴元灿 Tel:(021)23185629 Email:dyc10422@haitong.com 证书:S0850517070007 联系人:杨寅琛 Tel:(021)23188562 Email:yyc15266@haitong.com 绿证体系进一步完善，促进绿色金融发展 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 板块表现： ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Vietnam consumer sector [1] Core Views - Vietnam's economy is transitioning towards secondary and tertiary industries, with consumption remaining the dominant driver of demand [1][9] - Vietnam is in a demographic dividend period, with high consumption growth and significant potential for further expansion [1][19] - The retail market is primarily offline, but e-commerce is growing rapidly and has substantial room for development [1][46] Economic Overview - Vietnam's GDP reached $419.7 billion in 2023, accounting for 11% of ASEAN's total GDP [1][9] - The economy has shifted from agriculture to manufacturing and services, with manufacturing contributing 24.8% to GDP in 2022 [1][9] - Consumption accounts for 64% of GDP, higher than China's 53-55%, indicating a strong domestic demand-driven economy [14] Consumption Trends - Vietnam's total consumption grew from $136.7 billion in 2015 to $218.7 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 6.1% [1][19] - The population is young, with a median age of 34, and 23% of the population is aged 20-34, providing a strong labor force and consumption base [1][30] - E-commerce is growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 35% from 2018-2023, and is expected to grow at 21% from 2023-2028 [46][64] Retail Channels - Vietnam's retail market reached $126.3 billion in 2023, accounting for 19% of ASEAN's total retail market [46] - Traditional, modern, and e-commerce channels account for 37%, 48%, and 14% of the retail market, respectively [46] - E-commerce platforms like Shopee, Lazada, and Tiki dominate the market, with Shopee holding a 31% market share [64] Key Companies - **Bach Hoa Xanh**: A leading supermarket chain with over 1,700 stores, focusing on fresh produce and daily necessities [51] - **WinMart**: A major supermarket chain with over 3,600 stores, dominating the northern and central markets [51] - **Central Retail Corp (CRC)**: A key player in the hypermarket sector, with a 69% market share in Vietnam [54] - **Shopee**: The largest e-commerce platform in Vietnam, with a 31% market share and a strong presence across Southeast Asia [64][65] Future Outlook - Vietnam's retail market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.4% from 2023-2028, driven by urbanization, rising incomes, and e-commerce expansion [46] - The middle class is expected to grow significantly, with the highest income groups (spending $30-70/day) projected to increase from 4% in 2020 to 20% by 2030 [38] - E-commerce is expected to continue its rapid growth, with platforms like TikTok and Mobile World gaining market share [64][67]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.455 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.72%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.189 billion yuan, up 12.76% year-on-year [4]. - The health product segment continues to enhance profitability, with a revenue of 3.144 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.231 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.7% year-on-year [5]. - The pharmaceutical segment achieved a revenue of 4.069 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, with core products showing significant growth [5]. - The company is strengthening its innovation and research capabilities, focusing on both short-term and long-term projects to ensure sustainable development [5]. Financial Performance - The company expects revenues to grow from 39.111 billion yuan in 2023 to 47.249 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.9% [6][10]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 4.094 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.632 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of about 10.7% [6][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 26.5% in 2023 to 26.9% in 2026 [10]. Profitability and Efficiency - The company reported a sales gross margin of 29.30% for the first half of 2024, an increase of 1.75 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The net profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 15.59%, reflecting an increase of 1.67 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company maintains a stable expense ratio, with the sales expense ratio at 11.23% and the management expense ratio at 1.60% [7]. Valuation - The company is expected to trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23-28 times for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 59.80 to 72.80 yuan per share [7]. - The average P/E ratio of comparable companies is around 22-28 times, indicating a potential premium for the company's brand and product matrix [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit in the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching 846 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 71.64%, and a net profit of 98 million yuan, up 329.38% year-on-year [6][7] - The company has successfully navigated the fluctuations in the overseas market, with strong performance in both domestic and international markets, meeting its operational expectations [6] - The company's gross margin has been improving for six consecutive quarters, reaching 28.02% in Q2 2024, an increase of 11.91 percentage points year-on-year [7] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 846 million yuan, with the main business segments showing strong growth: plant-based chewing gum revenue increased by 114.62% to 298 million yuan, and animal skin chewing gum revenue rose by 87.85% to 263 million yuan [6] - The company’s ODM business is primarily supported by production bases in Vietnam and Cambodia, with the Vietnam base being a major profit contributor [6] - The company’s net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is projected to be 168 million, 202 million, and 250 million yuan respectively, indicating a return to profitability and continued growth [8][11] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The current closing price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18 and 15 times for 2024 and 2025 respectively, with a target valuation range of 14.86 to 15.54 yuan based on a PE of 22-23 times for 2024 [7][10] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 1.41 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.88 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33% [8][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit in Q2 2024 declined year-on-year but increased significantly quarter-on-quarter [5] - Q2 2024 revenue: 893 million yuan, down 25.96% YoY, up 92.91% QoQ - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 121 million yuan, down 38.92% YoY, up 128.16% QoQ - Gross margin: 27.00%, down 0.47% YoY, down 4.60% QoQ - Net margin: 13.53%, down 2.87% YoY, up 2.09% QoQ - In H1 2024, the company's revenue was 1.356 billion yuan, down 34.20% YoY, mainly due to slow domestic customer activity and delayed deliveries [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 174 million yuan, down 36.23% YoY - Gross margin: 28.57%, up 4.61% YoY - Net margin: 12.82%, down 0.41% YoY - Overseas business accounted for 56% of total revenue, with continuous order deliveries [5] - Domestic/overseas revenue: 598 million yuan/758 million yuan, accounting for 44.08%/55.92% of total revenue - Gross margin for domestic/overseas business: 29.81%/27.59%, up 8.37%/0.45% YoY - The company has successfully delivered multiple offshore projects in Europe, including the Moray West project in Scotland and the NOY-lles D'Yeu et Noirmoutier project in France [5] Financial Performance - Operating cash flow improved significantly in H1 2024, with a net operating cash flow of 247 million yuan, up 199.75% YoY [6] - Inventory as of June 30, 2024: 2.004 billion yuan, up 12.09% YoY [6] - Accounts receivable: 1.431 billion yuan, down 23.38% YoY [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 514 million yuan in 2024 and 715 million yuan in 2025 [6] - EPS is forecasted to be 0.81 yuan/share in 2024 and 1.12 yuan/share in 2025 [6] - The company is given a 2024 PE range of 25-30x, with a reasonable value range of 20.16-24.20 yuan [6] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 4.837 billion yuan in 2024E to 7.067 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 20.5% [7] - Net profit is projected to increase from 514 million yuan in 2024E to 953 million yuan in 2026E [7] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 23.8% in 2024E to 26.3% in 2026E [7] Comparable Company Analysis - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is 16.49x for 2024E, 11.30x for 2025E, and 9.17x for 2026E [8] - The average PS ratio for comparable companies is 1.61x for 2024 and 1.21x for 2025 [9] Financial Ratios and Efficiency - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 6.1% in 2023 to 10.5% in 2026 [10] - Asset turnover ratio is projected to improve from 0.40 in 2023 to 0.56 in 2026 [11] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to remain stable, ranging from 30.5% to 31.8% from 2024E to 2026E [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company reported a stable growth in performance with a revenue of 2.629 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.58%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 373 million yuan, up 4.90% year-on-year [6] - The company has effectively expanded its channels, with significant growth in various product revenues. The mattress, bed frame, sofa, and bedding segments achieved revenues of 1.240 billion yuan, 778 million yuan, 208 million yuan, and 149 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.26%, 7.03%, 11.63%, and 16.58% [6] - The company has upgraded its membership service system, achieving a customer NPS of 30.02%, which is a 14% increase year-on-year. The company ranks first in the mattress segment of the China Customer Recommendation Index (C-NPS) [6] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.428 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 232 million yuan, down 8.86% year-on-year [6] - The company's gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 52.19%, with a net profit margin of 16.25% [7] - The company forecasts net profits of 885 million yuan, 972 million yuan, and 1.097 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.4%, 9.7%, and 12.9% [7][10] Valuation - The current closing price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13 and 12 times for 2024 and 2025 respectively. The company is valued at 18-19 times PE for 2024, leading to a reasonable value range of 39.84 to 42.06 yuan [7][10]