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Industry Investment Rating - Leading Market-A (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Consumer lithium batteries are mainly used in mobile phones, laptops, smart wearable devices, and power tools, with polymer soft-pack being the dominant form due to its advantages in energy density and flexibility [2] - Emerging consumer electronics and AI technology are driving a new wave of device upgrades, creating significant potential demand for consumer batteries [2] - Cobalt-based lithium batteries with soft-pack solutions are the mainstream for 3C consumer batteries, with stacked batteries showing advantages in energy density and fast charging [2] - The consumer lithium battery market is expected to grow steadily, with Chinese battery manufacturers expanding globally to enhance competitiveness [2] Consumer Lithium Battery Development History - The consumer lithium battery industry has evolved through four stages: germination (1991-1999), initiation (2000-2006), rapid development (2007-2016), and maturity (2017-2022) [5] - The smartphone era significantly boosted demand for consumer batteries, with China, Japan, and South Korea forming a competitive landscape [4] Types of Consumer Batteries - Consumer batteries are mainly used in 3C products (computers, communication, and consumer electronics) and are divided into primary (non-rechargeable) and secondary (rechargeable) batteries, with lithium-ion batteries being the mainstream [7] Packaging Forms of Consumer Batteries - Lithium-ion batteries are categorized into cylindrical, prismatic, and polymer soft-pack batteries, with soft-pack batteries being the most suitable for consumer electronics due to their lightweight and flexible design [10] Polymer Soft-Pack Consumer Lithium Batteries - Polymer soft-pack batteries have seen steady growth, with a 5-year CAGR of 16.3% from 2017 to 2021, driven by smartphones and laptops [13] - In 2023, global polymer soft-pack battery shipments reached 5.48 billion units, a 2.6% YoY decline, with smartphones and laptops accounting for nearly 50% of the market [13] Button Batteries in TWS Earbuds - Button batteries have become the mainstream for TWS earbuds due to their compact size and high energy density, with each TWS earbud requiring two button batteries and one soft-pack battery for the charging case [16] Shaped Lithium Batteries - Shaped lithium batteries, such as L-shaped and curved batteries, are increasingly used in smartphones and wearable devices to maximize internal space and improve battery capacity [19] Consumer Lithium Battery Market Size - Global consumer lithium battery shipments reached 113.2 GWh in 2023, a 0.9% YoY decline, accounting for 9.41% of total lithium battery shipments [20] - China's consumer lithium battery shipments were stable, with 49 GWh in 2023, a 2.1% YoY increase, accounting for 5.54% of total lithium battery shipments [20] Market Concentration in Consumer Lithium Batteries - The global consumer lithium battery market is highly concentrated, with the top 5 companies accounting for over 75% of the market share in 2022 [22] Policies in the Consumer Lithium Battery Industry - Various policies have been introduced to support the development of the lithium battery industry, including energy conservation, recycling, and technological innovation [24] Laptop Market Maturity - The laptop market is mature, with global PC shipments declining by 12.9% YoY in 2023, but demand for lightweight and thin batteries is driving the shift from cylindrical to soft-pack batteries [27] Tablet Market Recovery - The tablet market is recovering, with global shipments reaching 129 million units in 2023, a 20.5% YoY decline, but showing signs of growth in 2024 [30] Smartphone Market Saturation - The smartphone market is relatively saturated, with global shipments declining by 4.32% YoY in 2023, but AI technology is expected to drive a new wave of upgrades [32] AI in Laptops and Smartphones - AI technology is injecting new vitality into the laptop and smartphone markets, with AI-enabled devices expected to see significant growth in 2024 [35] Growth Potential in Smart Wearable Devices - Smart wearable devices, such as smartwatches and TWS earbuds, have significant growth potential, with global shipments reaching 498 million units in 2023, a 1.7% YoY increase [37] TWS Earbuds Market Dominance - TWS earbuds have become the mainstream in the headphone market, with global shipments reaching 143 million units in H1 2024, a 10.2% YoY increase [41] Electric Tools Market Expansion - The global electric tools market is expanding, with a market size of $28.85 billion in 2023, a 3.4% YoY increase, and lithium batteries increasingly replacing lead-acid batteries [44] Electric Two-Wheelers Market Growth - The global electric two-wheeler market is growing, with shipments reaching 67.4 million units in 2023, a 4.5% YoY increase [49] Drone Battery Market - ATL is the largest supplier of batteries for DJI drones, with DJI holding nearly 80% of the global consumer drone market [59] E-Cigarette Market Size - The global e-cigarette market reached $20.88 billion in 2023, with closed-system e-cigarettes accounting for 63.3% of the market [61] E-Cigarette Regulations - China has implemented strict regulations on e-cigarettes, including bans on flavored e-cigarettes and online sales, leading to a more standardized market [65] E-Cigarette Export Market - China is the largest manufacturer and exporter of e-cigarettes, with exports reaching $11.08 billion in 2023, a 12.5% YoY increase [67] Consumer Lithium Battery Production Process - The production process for consumer lithium batteries is complex, involving multiple steps such as mixing, coating, cutting, stacking, welding, and testing [71] Stacked Battery Technology - Stacked batteries are expected to become the mainstream for consumer electronics due to their advantages in energy density, fast charging, and safety [73] Cobalt-Based Lithium Batteries - Cobalt-based lithium batteries are the mainstream for 3C consumer batteries, with cobalt oxide shipments reaching 45,000 tons in H1 2024, a 28.6% YoY increase [76] Profitability of Consumer Battery Companies - The profitability of consumer battery companies has improved due to declining cobalt prices, with some companies seeing significant increases in gross margins [79] Consumer Battery Sales Growth - Consumer battery sales are expected to grow significantly, driven by the AI era and the demand for new devices such as AI-enabled smartphones and laptops [82] Overseas Investments by Consumer Battery Companies - Several consumer battery companies are investing in overseas production facilities, with cumulative investments exceeding $7.28 billion, to expand their global presence [87]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that significant positive policies or external events are crucial for the market to find a bottom, and currently, there is a need to wait for such catalysts [9][12][17] - Historical data shows that since 2005, there have been 10 major market bottoms, each preceded or followed by significant policy changes or external events that improved the fundamental outlook [9][10][12] - Recent economic data indicates a decline in key indicators such as investment growth (8.2% to 8.1%), consumption growth (2.7% to 2.1%), and real estate sales (-18.6% to -18%), suggesting a need for policy intervention [9][12][16] Group 2 - The report notes that liquidity conditions are expected to remain loose, with a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, which may lead to a global easing trend [9][12][17] - The sentiment indicators are nearing historical lows, indicating limited further downside potential, with trading volume declines reaching 52% since May 20, 2023 [17][20] - Valuation metrics show that the proportion of stocks with a price-to-book ratio below 1 is at a historically high level, indicating potential undervaluation in the market [17][20] Group 3 - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy focusing on technology growth, core assets, and undervalued dividend stocks, particularly in sectors like TMT and consumer goods [9][12][17] - It highlights that after a market bottom, sectors with high growth potential and those aligned with policy direction tend to outperform, with recent declines observed in construction, beauty care, and agriculture sectors [9][12][17] - The report also points out that core assets such as electric vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage sectors may present investment opportunities as policies continue to support these areas [9][12][17]

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