证 告 行 业 研 究 究 报 2024 年 09 月 22 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------|-------------------|-----------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程周报 鑫选ETF策略超额收益+9.11% ——指数基金投资+ 报告日期：2024年09月22日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | n 分析师：吕思江 | | | | | n SAC编号：S1050522030001 | | | | | n 联系人：武文静 | | | | | n SAC编号：S1050123070007 | | | | 1. ETF投顾策略跟踪 2. 指数基金新发市场追踪 目 录 3. ETF资金流向 CONTENTS 4. 市场表现复盘 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 PAGE 2 0 1 ETF投顾策略跟踪 用 到 的值 1.1 鑫选ETF绝对收益策略 p 在前期报告《基于技术面量化的指数基金绝对收益策略：指数基金投资+系列报告之一》中，我们通过"抽屉法"，在场 内权益ETF池中进行测试。组合过去三年年化收益 14.23%，最大回撤仅为8.6%，夏普比率达到 1.44，样本内表现出色。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianyue Advanced [2] Core Views - The company achieved a record high quarterly revenue of 4.86 billion yuan in Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 98.49% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.1% [2] - The gross margin improved to 23.97%, up from the previous year, indicating enhanced profitability [2] - The company successfully entered the supply chains of major international manufacturers, including Infineon, Bosch, and Onsemi, and has become one of the top three players globally in the conductive silicon carbide substrate market [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Tianyue Advanced reported total revenue of 9.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.02 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [2] - The company’s net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 962.26 million yuan, also indicating a return to profitability [2] Production Capacity - The Shanghai Lingang factory has achieved a large-scale production capacity of 300,000 conductive substrates annually, with plans for further expansion to 600,000 substrates [2] - The company has successfully transitioned to mass sales of 8-inch products, demonstrating its R&D capabilities [3] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23.43 billion yuan, 34.87 billion yuan, and 42.24 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.53 yuan, 0.83 yuan, and 1.28 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 87.0, 55.3, and 35.7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting the company's strong growth potential in the silicon carbide sector [3]

2024 年 09 月 22 日 研 究 报 告 公 研 究 南厂区 2 万吨投产，新品 2049 即将上市 —今世缘（603369.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-09-20 | | 当前股价（元） | 37.62 | | 总市值（亿元） | 472 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1255 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1255 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 35.59-60.87 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 280.4 | 市场表现 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 (%) 今世缘 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《今世缘（603369）：业绩符合 预期，市场战略持续推进》2024- 08-18 2、《今世缘（603369）：上市十年 焕新天，后百亿锐意进取》2024- 07-08 3、《今世缘（603369）：一季度延 续增势 ...

2024 年 09 月 22 日 研 究 报 告 公 研 究 南厂区 2 万吨投产，新品 2049 即将上市 —今世缘（603369.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-09-20 | | 当前股价（元） | 37.62 | | 总市值（亿元） | 472 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1255 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1255 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 35.59-60.87 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 280.4 | 市场表现 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 (%) 今世缘 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《今世缘（603369）：业绩符合 预期，市场战略持续推进》2024- 08-18 2、《今世缘（603369）：上市十年 焕新天，后百亿锐意进取》2024- 07-08 3、《今世缘（603369）：一季度延 续增势 ...

证 2024 年 09 月 21 日 告 表现 1M 3M 12M 农林牧渔(申万) -5.4 -15.8 -24.2 沪深 300 -3.6 -8.4 -12.8 研 究 究 报 回购潮彰显行业发展信心，周期迭代淘汰末尾产 能 —农林牧渔行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：娄倩 S1050524070002 louqian@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 市场表现 (%) 农林牧渔 沪深300 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《农林牧渔行业周报：短期猪价 不改长期供需，关注低估值产能扩 张企业》2024-09-18 2、《农林牧渔行业专题报告：生猪 养殖区域专题系列二（浙江省）： 农业用地紧缩下生猪产能重构，区 域销价优势明显》2024-09-16 3、《农林牧渔行业周报：生猪量价 齐升助力 8 月经营业绩增长，关注 低估值产能扩张企业》2024-09-08 ▌ 本周观点 生猪养殖板块处估值低位，新一轮股份回购表发展信心，股 权激励助力公司长期良性发展。自 2024 年 6 月起至今，京基 智农、巨星农牧、华统股份和温氏股份相 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has launched a 2024-2028 employee stock ownership plan, involving no more than 800 participants, with funding sources including employee legal income and company incentive funds The 2024 plan is funded by a special incentive fund of 18435 million yuan, with a performance target of at least 10 8% YoY growth in net profit attributable to the parent company (excluding the impact of share-based payment expenses) [2] - The seasoning industry has shifted from medium-high growth to medium-low growth, showing resilience and structural opportunities in areas such as health-oriented and compound seasonings The company is adapting to fragmented marketing scenarios, expanding online and gifting demand, and transforming scale advantages into manufacturing advantages and network advantages into user advantages [2] - The company is continuously optimizing its product portfolio, developing vinegar and cooking wine categories, and promoting health-oriented and differentiated products to empower the development of compound seasonings [2] - The company has adjusted its 2024-2026 EPS forecasts to 1 12/1 23/1 34 yuan (previously 1 12/1 21/1 30 yuan), with current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 32/29/27 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 24559 million yuan in 2023 to 32823 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -4 1%, 12 0%, 9 7%, and 8 7% respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 5627 million yuan in 2023 to 7477 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -9 2%, 10 8%, 9 9%, and 9 2% respectively [3] - Diluted EPS is forecasted to be 1 01, 1 12, 1 23, and 1 34 yuan for 2023-2026, with ROE remaining stable at around 19 4%-19 8% [3] - Gross margin is expected to slightly increase from 34 7% in 2023 to 35 2% in 2026, while net margin is projected to remain stable at around 22 7%-23 0% [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on optimizing its supply chain and strategic layout, leveraging digital tools to empower distributors and enhance market penetration [2] - Efforts are being made to clear out underperforming distributors and improve profitability through team expansion and user resource accumulation [2] - The company is advancing stable growth in the catering channel by leveraging cost leadership advantages [2] - Product development is centered around expanding beyond soy sauce, oyster sauce, and soybean paste, with a focus on vinegar, cooking wine, and health-oriented categories [2]

证 2024 年 09 月 22 日 告 表现 1M 3M 12M 传媒(申万) -2.0 -5.6 -24.3 沪深 300 -4.0 -8.6 -13.6 行 业 研 究 究 从 KeeTa 到通义万相看企业如何破局 关注混合 现实板块 报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：朱珠 S1050521110001 zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：于越 S1050522080001 yvyue@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 市场表现 (%) 传媒 沪深300 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《传媒行业周报：观平台经济如 何破局获新增？》2024-09-17 2、《传媒行业深度报告：从 B 站看 内容与用户演变》2024-09-01 3、《传媒行业周报：中报落地后看 修复 以 IP 为支点 撬动商业化新边 界》2024-09-01 ▌ 本周观点更新 2024 年国庆档已定档片单中，可关注《志愿军：存亡之战》 《749 局》等，目前看，整体片单看点有限，静待新片定档 进展；9 月下旬，外部峰会如阿里云栖大会上已推出文生视 频产品，OpenA ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has announced its first-ever share buyback, which is expected to boost market confidence [3][4] - The company's performance in the first half of the year slightly exceeded expectations, demonstrating its resilience as a market leader [5] - The company aims for a revenue growth target of 15% for the year, which is considered highly achievable [5] Summary by Sections Share Buyback Announcement - The company plans to repurchase shares through a centralized bidding process with a total amount between 3 billion and 6 billion RMB [4] - The repurchased shares will be used for cancellation and reduction of registered capital [4] - The maximum repurchase price is set at 1795.78 RMB per share, which is 130% of the average trading price over the previous 30 trading days [4] - The estimated number of shares to be repurchased ranges from 1.67 million to 3.34 million, accounting for 0.133% to 0.266% of the total share capital [4] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 174.54 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 15.9% [9] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to reach 87.74 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 17.4% [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at 69.85 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is implementing a unified strategy across its operations, which is expected to enhance its market leadership [6] - The stable pricing of its products, with bulk and individual bottle prices remaining consistent, supports the revenue growth outlook [5]

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 新品不断推出，优质资产迎布局良机 新能源汽车行业周报 报告日期： 推荐 维持 投资评级： （ ） 2024年09月21日 ◼ 分析师：黎江涛 ◼ SAC编号：S1050521120002 投 资 要 点 需求向好，优质资产迎布局良机。根据中汽协数据，2024年8月中国新能源车产销分别为109.2万/110万辆，分别同比增长 29.6%/30%，2024年1-8月中国新能源车累计产销700.8万/703.7万辆，分别同比增长29%/30.9%。在政策大力支持背景 下，叠加优质车型持续推出，需求端表现强劲。蔚来推出乐道L60，小鹏推出M03等，性价比凸显，市场反馈积极。当前核 心资产处于底部，9月、10月是车市旺季，迎布局良机。 行业评级及投资策略： 以旧换新政策加码落地拉动需求，供给端部分企业开始收缩资本开支，供需结构在边际优化，2024年产业链盈利有望逐季 环比改善，估值或将修复，基本面反转尚需等待产能出清。继续优选有望贡献超额收益方向，看好液冷、固态电池、电池材 料α品种、机器人等方向。维持新能源汽车行业"推荐"评级。 1）主材：宁德时代、尚太科技、科达利等； 2）新方向： ...