2024 年3 月28 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 信达生物 (1801 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$54.50) 心血管和代谢产品有望推动公司业绩快速增长 目标价: HK$54.50 当前股价: HK$38.55 • 多元化产品组合有望推动公司24-26 年收入CAGR 保持30%左右的增速。 股价上行/下行空间 +41% • 经营效率持续提升，公司财务表现将持续获益。 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 49.80/27.30 市值 (US$mn) 7,173 • 重申“买入”评级；下调DCF 目标价至54.50 港元。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,456 三个月平均日交易額 51 23 年产品收入增长迅速，24 年有望保持增长趋势：根据公司23 年年报，公司实现产品收 (US$mn) 入57.28 亿元，同比增长38.4%。公司以PD-1 为核心的主导产品均保持快速增长势头。 流通盘占比 (%) 57 2023 年，公司毛利率为81.7%，同比增长2.1ppt，主要系生产效率提升和生产成本持续 主要股东 (%) TLS BETA 6 降低。2023 年公司商业化产品增至10 款（2 ...

2024 年3 月28 日 消费服务: 中性 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 九毛九国际 (9922 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$7.00) 当前估值仍具吸引力 目标价: HK$7.00 当前股价: HK$5.27 • 2023 年业绩符合预期，太二继续快速增长； 股价上行/下行空间 +33% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 19.26/4.42 • 持续变革寻找需求，测算市值大概率介于77-130 亿港元，当前估值仍具吸引力； 市值 (US$mn) 968 • 维持买入评级，维持7.00 港元目标价不变，对应15 倍2024 年P/E。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,437 三个月平均日交易額 10 2023 年业绩符合预期，太二继续快速增长：1）九毛九发布2023 年业绩，营收同比增长 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 100 49.4%至59.9 亿元，实现归母净利润4.5 亿元；折算2H23 营收同比增长47.5%至31.1 主要股东 (%) 亿元，归母净利润2.3 亿元。2）太二品牌：23 年净开128 家门店至578 家，翻座率也改 GYH J Limited 37 善15.4%至3.0 次/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$9.78, down from a previous target of HK$12.09 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2023 was slightly below expectations, with total revenue and net profit at RMB 314.5 billion and RMB 60.7 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 1.7% and a decline of 3.6% [1][8]. - Continuous investment in R&D is expected to drive the growth of innovative drugs, which will become a key growth point for the company's revenue [1][12]. - The company anticipates launching 50 innovative drugs over the next five years, which will provide ongoing momentum for revenue growth [1][12]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue and net profit from 2023 to 2026 of 6.3% and 9.7%, respectively [1][12]. Revenue Structure and Growth - The company's revenue from traditional pharmaceuticals reached RMB 256.4 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [1][8]. - Revenue from the central nervous system segment was RMB 90.9 billion, growing by 12.1% year-on-year, while the respiratory system segment saw a significant increase of 124% to RMB 15.6 billion due to strong market demand [1][8]. - Revenue from oncology and cardiovascular segments declined by 16.4% and 15.5%, respectively, due to price reductions from centralized procurement [1][8]. - The report projects revenue growth rates for traditional pharmaceuticals from 2024 to 2026 to be 3.3%, 1.5%, and -1.5%, respectively [1][12]. Raw Materials and Functional Foods - The report indicates that revenue from raw materials and functional foods is expected to grow in 2024, with forecasts of 8.9% and 10% year-on-year growth, respectively [1][12]. - The company experienced a 23.7% decline in VC revenue in 2023 due to price drops, while functional food revenue fell by 8.9% primarily due to lower caffeine prices [1][12]. Financial Projections - The report provides updated financial projections, with 2024 revenue estimated at RMB 32,839 million, down 12% from previous estimates [10][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is RMB 0.53, reflecting an 18% decrease from earlier forecasts [10][12]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately US$9.69 billion, with a current share price of HK$6.34, indicating a potential upside of 54% to the target price [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Health with a target price adjusted to HK$43.57 from HK$59.84, reflecting a 54% upside potential from the current price of HK$28.35 [1][2][13]. Core Insights - JD Health's profit growth in 2023 exceeded market expectations, driven by improved operational efficiency and increased interest income, with a reported profit of RMB 2.14 billion, a 459% year-on-year increase [1][9]. - The company anticipates a return to normal growth in product revenue starting in 2024 as the impact of the pandemic diminishes, projecting a year-on-year growth rate of 15% for product sales from 2024 to 2026 [1][12]. - Service revenue is expected to grow rapidly, with projections of 22% year-on-year growth in 2024, 18% in 2025, and 17% in 2026, supported by an increase in third-party merchants and enhanced retail capabilities [1][12]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, JD Health achieved total revenue of RMB 53.53 billion, a 14.5% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 22.2%, up 1 percentage point from the previous year [1][9]. - The company reported a significant increase in operating profit to RMB 890 million, a 2383% year-on-year rise, indicating improved operational efficiency [1][9]. - For 2024, the revenue forecast is set at RMB 62.19 billion, with a projected gross profit of RMB 14.15 billion and a net profit of RMB 2.73 billion [11][18]. Revenue Breakdown - Product revenue for 2023 was RMB 45.65 billion, with expectations of RMB 52.61 billion in 2024, reflecting a 3% increase from previous estimates [12][18]. - Service revenue is projected to decline to RMB 9.57 billion in 2024, a 23% decrease from earlier forecasts, indicating a shift in revenue dynamics [12][18]. Valuation Metrics - The target price corresponds to a 2.0x price-to-sales ratio for 2024, which is above the industry average of 1.4x for comparable internet healthcare platforms [2][13]. - The report highlights JD Health's active customer base and higher third-party commissions as justifications for a premium valuation compared to peers [2][13].

2024 年3 月21 日 汽车汽配: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 小鹏汽车 (XPEV US, 持有, 目标价: US$10.20) 4Q23 毛利率环比转正，MONA 将于 3Q24 发布交付 目标价: US$10.20 当前股价: US$9.51 • 受益于规模效益和高毛利车型销售占比提升，4Q23 毛利率环比转正至6.2%。 股价上行/下行空间 +7% • 管理层预计1Q24 交付2.1-2.25 万辆新车，对应总收入58-62 亿元。 52周最高/最低价 (US$) 23.62/7.51 市值 (US$mn) 8,233 • 维持“持有”评级，下调目标价至10.20 美元（对应1.5 倍2024 年P/S）。 当前发行数量(百万股) 866 三个月平均日交易額 119 4Q23 毛利率环比转正，X9 交付利好1Q24 毛利率持续改善。根据小鹏汽车2023 年年报， (US$mn) 公司4Q23 营业收入为130.5 亿元，同环比分别增长153.9%/53.0%，其中汽车业务营收 流通盘占比 (%) 80 122.3 亿元，同/环比分别增长162.3%/55.9%；综合毛利率环比转正至6.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (LI US) with a target price of US$46.00 [2][11][22]. Core Views - Li Auto has adjusted its 1Q24 delivery guidance down to 76,000-78,000 units and lowered its full-year delivery target to a year-on-year growth of 50-70%, corresponding to a range of 540,000-640,000 units [2][21]. - The company aims to focus on improving operational quality rather than solely pursuing sales volume, which is expected to enhance user value and operational efficiency [2][21]. - The report anticipates that the company's gross margin will maintain a healthy level of around 20% in the medium term, with an upward adjustment of gross margin forecasts for 2024-2026 [3][22]. Summary by Sections Delivery Guidance and Sales Strategy - Li Auto has revised its 1Q24 delivery guidance from 100,000-102,000 units to 76,000-78,000 units, citing misjudgment of the product lifecycle and excessive focus on sales volume [2][21]. - The company has also adjusted its full-year delivery target to a growth of 50-70%, reflecting a more sustainable approach to sales [2][21]. Financial Projections - The report has lowered the sales forecasts for 2024-2026 by 20.8%, 21.4%, and 19.5% to 575,500, 806,100, and 1,147,840 units respectively, leading to a corresponding reduction in revenue forecasts to RMB 163.84 billion, RMB 229.92 billion, and RMB 315.06 billion [3][22]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 15.43 billion, RMB 23.98 billion, and RMB 34.53 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 27.6%, 55.4%, and 44.0% [3][22]. Valuation Adjustments - The report has revised the 2024 P/E valuation down to 25 times from the previous 30 times, resulting in a target price adjustment to US$46.00 from US$63.20 while maintaining the "Buy" rating [3][11][22].

2024 年3 月25 日 耐用消费品及服装: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 李宁 (2331 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$26.66) 持续优化产品矩阵与订货模型驱动业绩增长 目标价: HK$26.66 当前股价: HK$20.45 • 2023 年业绩符合我们预期； 股价上行/下行空间 +30% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 65.00/14.94 • 李宁进一步优化产品矩阵与订货模型驱动增长，我们预计2024 年营收/归母净利润分 市值 (US$mn) 6,757 别同比增长5.2%/6.6%至290.3/34.0 亿元； 当前发行数量(百万股) 2,584 • 维持买入评级，上调目标价6%至26.66 港元，对应17 倍2025 年P/E。 三个月平均日交易額 70 (US$mn) 2023 年业绩符合预期：1）李宁发布2023 年业绩，营收/归母净利润分别同比+7.0%/ - 流通盘占比 (%) 100 21.6%至276.0/31.8 亿元，折算2H23 营收/归母净利润分别同比+1.4%/-43.1%至135.8/ 主要股东 (%) Viva China 10 10.7 亿元，业绩 ...

2024 年3 月20 日 耐用消费品及服装: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 特步国际 (1368 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$6.23) 继续凭借先发优势享受跑鞋赛道的发展红利 目标价: HK$6.23 当前股价: HK$4.95 • 2023 年业绩符合预期，特步品牌稳步扩张，新品牌继续高速增长； 股价上行/下行空间 +26% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 10.36/3.61 • 预计2024 年营收/归母净利润同比增长11.1%/15.1%至159.3/11.9 亿元； 市值 (US$mn) 1,672 • 维持买入评级，下调目标价14%至6.23 港元，对应11 倍2025 年P/E。 当前发行数量(百万股) 2,641 三个月平均日交易額 8 2023 年业绩符合预期：1）特步发布2023 年业绩，营收/归母净利润分别同比增长10.9%/ (US$mn) 11.8%至143.5/10.3 亿元，折算2H23 营收/归母净利润分别同比增长8.0%/ 10.1%至78.2/ 流通盘占比 (%) 100 3.6 亿元。2）特步品牌毛利率改善带动23 年整体毛利率同比提升1.2pcts 至4 ...

2024 年3 月6 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 药明生物 (2269 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$29.09) 2023 年盈利或受公允价值变动损失所拖累 目标价: HK$29.09 当前股价: HK$19.94 • 生物安全法案短期内应该难以落地，但日益加剧的中美地缘冲突或将中长期压制相关 股价上行/下行空间 +46% 公司估值。 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 58.15/14.70 市值 (US$mn) 3,131 • 2023 年和2024 年前两个月，恒指生物医药和纳斯达克生物医药指数皆跑输大盘。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,228 • 下调DCF（WACC：9.9%）目标价至29.09 港币，维持买入。 三个月平均日交易額 163 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 100 生物安全法案短期内应该难以落地：2024 年1 月26 日，美国议员Mike Gallagher 向美 主要股东 (%) 国众议院提交了生物安全法案（BIOSECURE Act）草案版本，本条例旨在禁止与某些生物 WuXi Biologics Holdings 14 技术供应商签订合约。文件中提到了 ...

2024 年3 月7 日 汽车汽配: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 蔚来汽车 (NIO US, 持有, 目标价: US$5.20) 2023 年亏损持续扩大，阿尔卑斯品牌将于 4Q24 开启交付 目标价: US$5.20 当前股价: US$5.77 • 受汽车销售毛利下滑及经营费用持续增长影响，蔚来2023 年Non-GAAP 亏损达到 股价上行/下行空间 -10% 184.8 亿元，同比扩大54.2%。 52周最高/最低价 (US$) 16.18/4.78 市值 (US$mn) 9,810 • 管理层预计1Q24 交付3.1-3.3 万辆新车；子品牌阿尔卑斯首款车将于4Q24 开启交 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,700 付，预计难以对今年销量产生明显贡献。 三 (U个 S$月 mn平 ) 均日交易額 433 • 维持“持有”评级，下调目标价至5.20 美元。 流通盘占比 (%) 91 2023 年亏损持续扩大，4Q23 汽车销售毛利率环比略有回升。根据蔚来汽车4Q23 业绩报 主要股东 (%) Baillie Gifford &Co. 7 告，公司实现营业收入171.0 亿元，同比提升6.5%，环比 ...