Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that gold prices continue to reach historical highs due to the "Trump trade" and escalating geopolitical events, with London spot gold rising by 2.40% and Shanghai gold increasing by 3.63% [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming U.S. elections and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in November, as volatility is expected to increase significantly during this period [1]. - In the copper sector, domestic inventory accumulation is leading to price fluctuations, with London copper down by 1.31% and Shanghai copper down by 0.31% [1][24]. - The aluminum sector is facing tight supply of bauxite, resulting in a significant increase in alumina prices by 8.43% [2][29]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs, with London gold surpassing $2720 per ounce, driven by expectations of increased fiscal deficits under a potential Trump presidency and heightened geopolitical tensions [1]. - Silver prices also saw increases, with London spot silver up by 2.98% and Shanghai silver up by 2.73% [14]. Copper Sector - London copper prices decreased by 1.31% to $9603 per ton, while Shanghai copper prices fell by 0.31% to ¥76980 per ton [23]. - Domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate, with Shanghai copper inventory increasing by 7.63% [24]. - The copper smelting profit margin is reported at -1066 yuan per ton, indicating a narrowing loss [24]. Aluminum Sector - London aluminum prices fell by 2.49% to $2587 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum prices decreased by 0.65% to ¥20600 per ton [23][29]. - The alumina price surged by 8.43%, impacting the profit margins of aluminum companies, which dropped by 32.80% to ¥1936 per ton [2][29]. Small Metals - Small metal prices showed mixed results, with germanium ingots and molybdenum concentrates rising by 2.17% and 0.81%, respectively, while indium and magnesium ingots saw declines of 0.71% and 1.63% [2]. Market Performance - The report notes that the non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.85% [8]. - The sector's PE_TTM valuation stands at 19.96, slightly down by 0.27 from the previous week [12]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, China Gold, and Chalco in the precious metals sector, and companies like Jiangxi Copper and Yunnan Tin in the copper sector [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the shipping industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating [2] Core Insights - The MEPC 82 meeting established a regulatory framework for mid-term measures in shipping decarbonization, focusing on technical measures centered around GFI, while economic measures are still under discussion [2][3] - The tightening of green regulations is expected to accelerate the retirement of old ships and the renewal of green vessels, with a significant gap remaining in orders for oil tankers and bulk carriers to meet green renewal needs [3][4] - The upcoming MEPC 83 meeting in April 2025 is anticipated to introduce crucial regulations that will impact shipping costs, organizational relationships, and business models for decades to come [2][3] Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - The MEPC 82 meeting focused on emissions control, ballast water management, black carbon reduction, greenhouse gas emissions reduction, and marine plastic waste prevention, laying the groundwork for future regulations [2][3] - The meeting proposed tightening the CII regulations post-2026 to meet the IMO's target of reducing shipping carbon intensity by at least 40% by 2030, with potential increases in annual reduction rates [2][3] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that shipbuilding capacity remains constrained due to the pandemic-induced order surge in 2021, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand [3][4] - The report suggests that the gradual tightening of green regulations will drive the green renewal of fleets, with a focus on leading Chinese shipbuilding companies [3][4] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that the upcoming MEPC 83 meeting will be critical in determining the final outcomes of the proposed regulations, which are expected to have a significant impact on the shipping industry [2][3]

证券研究报告 相关研究 建筑材料 行业点评 证券分析师 戴铭余 S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 事件：10 月 17 日，国新办举行新闻发布会。住房城乡建设部部长倪虹在会上介绍了促进房地产市场 平稳健康发展有关情况，介绍了推动市场止跌回稳的"组合拳"政策，其中包括四个取消、四个降 低、两个增加，其中四个取消主要包括取消限购、取消限售、取消限价、取消普通住宅和非普通住宅 标准；四个降低主要包括降低住房公积金贷款利率、降低住房贷款的首付比例、降低存量贷款利率、 降低"卖旧买新"换购住房的税费负担；两个增加主要包括实施 100 万套城中村改造和危旧房改造、 "白名单"项目的信贷规模增加到 4 万亿。 联系人 林高凡 S1350124080004 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 货币化安置重启，政策由 B 向 C，方向比数字更重要。本次会议首次提及在避免新增地 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the beauty and personal care sector, and a focus on brands with strong management and product advantages in the textile and apparel sector [3][21]. Core Insights - The beauty industry shows a slight increase in sales, with skincare and makeup categories on Tmall reporting sales of 5.9 billion and 2.15 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.6% and 1.3% [3][6]. - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing an upward trend in OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) revenue, with several companies reporting significant year-on-year growth [3][11]. - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to boost performance in the beauty sector, with major platforms starting promotions earlier this year [3][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The beauty care sector is stable during the off-season, with Tmall's beauty market showing a slight increase in September [6]. - The textile and apparel industry is seeing an upward trend in OEM, with companies like Fengtai and Yuhong reporting year-on-year revenue growth of 1.26% and 33.89% respectively [11][9]. 2. Beauty & Textile Industry Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Beauty Care Index has decreased by 7.96% from October 8 to October 11, 2024, while the Textile and Apparel Index has decreased by 6.10% during the same period [14][15]. - Year-to-date, the Beauty Care Index has fallen by 6.77%, and the Textile and Apparel Index has decreased by 3.74% [14][15]. 3. Beauty & Textile Industry Views and Related Stocks - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and management in the beauty sector, recommending companies like Proya and Juzhibio [3][21]. - In the textile sector, it highlights the potential for valuation recovery among brands like Anta Sports and Huali Group, driven by favorable macroeconomic policies [3][21].

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [2] Core Views - The company is a leading Biopharma in China, transitioning successfully from Biotech to Biopharma with 11 approved products and a robust pipeline in oncology, immunology, metabolism, and ophthalmology [2] - The oncology segment is a key driver, with a strategy combining IO (Immuno-Oncology) and ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) to solidify its leadership position [2] - Non-oncology pipelines, particularly in cardiovascular, metabolic, and autoimmune diseases, are expected to open new growth curves [3] - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with 2024-2026 revenue estimates of 8.094 billion, 11.327 billion, and 14.551 billion RMB, respectively, representing a CAGR of 30.43%, 39.94%, and 28.46% [3][6] Oncology Segment - The company's PD-1 inhibitor, Sintilimab, is the only PD-1 drug in China that covers first-line treatment for five major cancer types and is included in the national medical insurance [2] - The company is advancing its IO+ADC strategy with promising candidates like IBI363 (PD-1/IL-2), IBI343 (CLDN18.2 ADC), and IBI389 (CLDN18.2/CD3 bispecific antibody), which show potential in overcoming immune resistance and treating cold tumors [2] - IBI363, a PD-1/IL-2 bispecific fusion protein, has shown promising efficacy and safety in clinical trials, particularly in treating immune-resistant non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and melanoma [23][29][34] Non-Oncology Segment - The company's GLP-1R/GCGR dual-target drug, Mazdutide, is a key growth driver, with NDA submissions for obesity and type 2 diabetes in 2024 [3] - In the autoimmune space, the IL-23p19 inhibitor, IBI112, has shown potential as a best-in-class drug for psoriasis, with its NDA submitted in September 2024 [3] - In ophthalmology, IBI311 (IGF-1R) for thyroid eye disease (TED) has submitted its NDA in May 2024, giving the company a first-mover advantage [3] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 8.094 billion RMB in 2024 to 14.551 billion RMB in 2026, with a DCF-based valuation of 93.9 billion RMB, equivalent to 101.5 billion HKD [3][6] - The company is projected to achieve profitability by 2025, driven by its diversified product portfolio and operational efficiency improvements [6][8] Key Catalysts - The commercialization of Mazdutide in 2025 is expected to be a significant growth driver, leveraging the large market potential for GLP-1 drugs in China [3][8] - The advancement of IBI363 in clinical trials and its potential for global expansion could further enhance the company's oncology portfolio [2][29] - The company's focus on operational efficiency and commercialization capabilities is expected to drive sustained growth [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [4]. Core Insights - The company has reported a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with an expected range of 2.252 to 2.680 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 53% to 82% [4]. - The company's performance in the third quarter exceeded market expectations, driven by strong electricity generation from thermal and wind power [4][5]. - The company is positioned as a core power platform in the East China region, benefiting from both profitability flexibility and long-term growth potential [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 2.252 to 2.680 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 53% to 82% [4]. - In the third quarter alone, the expected net profit ranges from 0.925 to 1.353 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 36% to 99% [4]. - The total electricity generation for the third quarter reached 23.1 billion kWh, a 9.7% increase year-on-year, with coal, gas, wind, and solar power contributing to this growth [4]. Operational Highlights - The company has not added new installed capacity for coal, gas, or wind power from September last year to this September, yet it still achieved strong growth in electricity generation [4]. - The strong demand for electricity in the Yangtze River Delta region during high temperatures has significantly contributed to the growth in coal power generation [4]. - The company is the only major thermal and green power operator to forecast positive growth in earnings, attributed to its advantageous asset locations and management efforts [5]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, now expecting net profits of 2.661 billion, 2.924 billion, and 3.420 billion yuan respectively [5]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 11, 10, and 8 times, respectively [5]. - The company aims to enhance its renewable energy capacity and has set a goal to develop a large-scale clean energy base in the western region [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the green electricity sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - Since the introduction of the dual carbon strategy in September 2020, the renewable energy industry has experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable decline in recent years. Despite the increase in installed photovoltaic capacity, profitability has not kept pace, leading to pressure on electricity prices, utilization rates, and returns [1][6]. - The current challenges faced by the renewable energy sector are attributed to systemic issues, including the lack of synchronized electricity market reforms and the impact of non-market interventions on pricing. However, the report suggests that these challenges are temporary, and the sector is expected to recover as policy adjustments are made [1][8]. - The report identifies four key positive marginal changes that could support a recovery in the green electricity sector: 1. A shift towards more rational electricity generation development since July, which is expected to stabilize consumption rates and prices. 2. The introduction of corrective electricity pricing policies, particularly the pilot difference contract model in Guangxi. 3. Rapid advancements in energy consumption control and carbon market policies, with significant changes in the recognition of green certificates. 4. Accelerated subsidy disbursements to alleviate financial pressures on operators [1][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Theoretical Valuation of Green Electricity Companies - The valuation of renewable energy operators is fundamentally based on the certainty of returns, with cash flows generated from projects being reinvested to enhance company value. Key factors influencing valuation include internal rate of return (IRR), discount rates, project duration, and dividend rates [10][11]. 2. Review of Green Electricity Market Trends (2020-2022) - The report reviews the significant market trends from 2020 to 2022, highlighting the initial certainty premium during 2020-2021 and the subsequent sharp corrections in 2022. The decline in investment returns has shifted the investment logic from certainty premiums to uncertainty discounts, leading to substantial valuation adjustments [1][6][9]. 3. Current Opportunities in the Green Electricity Sector - The report emphasizes that despite existing pressures, accumulating positive factors indicate a potential for recovery in the green electricity sector. The analysis suggests that as the certainty of returns improves, the sector may experience significant valuation recovery [1][6][9]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued companies in the Hong Kong stock market, such as Longyuan Power, Datang Renewable, CGN New Energy, and China Power. It also suggests attention to A-share renewable operators like Three Gorges Energy and Yunnan Energy Investment [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market performance [10][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that major state-owned construction enterprises are likely to see a revaluation of their market value due to recent policy measures and shareholder actions, such as the planned share buybacks by China State Construction and China Energy Engineering [1]. - The report emphasizes that the construction sector is expected to benefit from a series of favorable policies aimed at improving the fundamentals of the infrastructure industry, including debt resolution and increased financing support for major projects [1]. - It notes that the valuation of major construction state-owned enterprises has reached historical lows, with most price-to-book (PB) ratios remaining below 1, suggesting potential upside for investors [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Events - On October 15, China State Construction and China Energy Engineering announced plans for their controlling shareholders to increase their stakes in the companies, with China State Construction planning to buy back up to 1.2 billion yuan worth of shares and China Energy Engineering aiming to increase its A-share holdings by no less than 300 million yuan and no more than 500 million yuan within six months [1]. Policy Environment - The report discusses the ample policy tools available to support the construction sector, including the recent issuance of guidelines by the China Securities Regulatory Commission encouraging share buybacks and dividend planning, as well as new liquidity support measures from the central bank [1]. - It also mentions that the central bank's new tools, such as stock repurchase and increase loans, are expected to enhance the liquidity and stock buyback capabilities of listed companies [1]. Financial Performance - The report provides financial performance data for major construction state-owned enterprises for the first half of 2024, showing stable revenue figures with China State Construction achieving 1,144.6 billion yuan, and others like China Railway Construction and China Communications Construction showing slight declines [1]. - The calculated dividend yields for these enterprises are generally above 3%, with some reaching as high as 4.51%, indicating a strong return potential for investors [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major state-owned construction enterprises such as China State Construction, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction, as well as local state-owned enterprises like Sichuan Road and Bridge and Anhui Construction [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance and potential growth [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.422 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.1%. The net profit for the third quarter alone was 2.12 billion yuan, up 21.55% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to the company's investments in hydropower, a decrease in financial expenses due to convertible bond conversions, and a decline in interest rates. The financial expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were 344 million yuan, down approximately 125 million yuan from 469 million yuan in the same period of 2023, marking the largest reduction in recent years [2]. - The company plans to increase its stake in Yalong River Hydropower by investing 7.2 billion yuan as part of a larger 15 billion yuan capital increase, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects [2]. - The report highlights that the electricity price for the company's hydropower stations increased by 4.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, reflecting a tightening supply-demand situation in Sichuan's electricity market [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total profit of 3.88 billion yuan in the third quarter, with investment income increasing by 334 million yuan year-on-year, mainly from Yalong River and Dadu River investments [2]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.111 billion yuan, 5.390 billion yuan, and 5.615 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 16, and 15 times [3]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth of Yalong River Hydropower, which aims to expand its hydropower capacity to 23 million kilowatts and new energy capacity to 20 million kilowatts by 2030 [2]. - The report suggests that the hydropower sector, characterized by low covariance, is likely to experience a revaluation, indicating long-term investment value [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [11] Core Insights - The Jiangxi Ganyue Canal project is set to commence soon, with significant demand for construction materials, particularly explosives and cement, expected to arise from the project [4][5] - The total planned investment for the Ganyue Canal is approximately 320 billion, with about 60% of the project located in Jiangxi province [4] - The project is anticipated to create an annual demand for 198,600 tons of explosives and 917,000 tons of cement in Jiangxi during the construction period [5] Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Ganyue Canal will surpass the Grand Canal in length, becoming the longest in the world at approximately 1,988 kilometers [4] - The project has received significant governmental support, with plans to accelerate its development as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4] Material Demand Analysis - For explosives, the project will require approximately 165,000 tons, with Jiangxi's share being around 99,000 tons, translating to a 122% increase in demand for local producers [5] - For cement, the total requirement is estimated at 7,644,000 tons, with Jiangxi's share being about 4,586,000 tons, which represents 11% of the province's 2023 cement production [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on local companies in Jiangxi, particularly Guotai Group for explosives and Wannianqing for cement, as they are expected to benefit significantly from the project [5]