1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Campisi model, a classic attribution framework in the fixed - income field, decomposes the total return of a pure - bond fund into four effects: income, treasury, spread, and selection effects, helping to evaluate a fund manager's abilities such as duration management and credit mining [6]. - The net - based Campisi model (RBA) constructs seven risk factors through factor regression, with advantages in high - frequency tracking and dynamic adaptability, capable of capturing strategy adjustments and market environment changes [2][80]. - The net - based Campisi model has strong explanatory power for fixed - income funds. From early 2025 to August 22, 2025, the adjusted R - squared generally exceeded 0.6, indicating that the model can explain most of the income sources [2][80]. - The model can identify strategy characteristics. For example, in 2025, interest - rate bond funds generally extended their durations, and credit bond funds shifted to a diversified strategy due to narrowing spreads. "Fixed - income +" funds balanced risks and returns through diversified rating allocations and maintained high exposure to option - containing assets [2][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Performance Attribution of Fixed - Income Funds - The core value of fixed - income fund performance attribution lies in evaluating management capabilities, guiding investment decisions, and optimizing risk management. Its practical significance benefits investors, managers, and regulatory agencies [5]. 3.2 Net - based Campisi Model 3.2.1 Campisi Model Principle - The Campisi model decomposes the total return of a pure - bond fund into four effects: income, treasury, spread, and selection effects, helping to assess a fund manager's abilities in various aspects [6]. - The income effect is the coupon income during bond holding, independent of market interest rate fluctuations. The treasury effect measures the impact of changes in risk - free interest rates on bond prices, and the spread effect reflects the impact of changes in credit spreads on bond prices. The selection effect reflects the fund manager's active management ability [7][8][13]. - The Campisi model can be divided into the portfolio - based (PBA) and net - based (RBA) models. PBA has high decomposition accuracy but low timeliness, while RBA has high - frequency tracking and dynamic adaptability [14]. 3.2.2 Model Construction and Factor Selection - The net - based Campisi model decomposes bond returns into seven factors: interest - rate level, term structure, convexity, credit spread, rating spread, convertible bond, and equity factors [18]. - Each factor has its own construction method and reflects different aspects of a fund's risk exposure and strategy preference. For example, the interest - rate level factor reflects the impact of the parallel shift of the interest - rate curve on bond portfolio returns, and the convertible bond factor captures the income contribution of convertible bond assets [20][34]. 3.2.3 Factor Performance and Processing - Since January 2020, the convertible bond and equity factors have fluctuated greatly, while non - option - containing factors have shown an upward trend in the long - term. The interest - rate level, term structure, credit spread, and rating spread factors have stable long - term trends, and the convexity factor has the smallest fluctuation [39]. - There are certain correlations among the factors. For example, the convertible bond factor and the equity factor have a strong positive correlation, while the interest - rate level factor has a negative correlation with the convertible bond and equity factors [40]. 3.3 Bond Fund Performance Evaluation Empirical Analysis 3.3.1 Pure - Bond Fund Attribution Analysis - From early 2025 to August 22, 2025, the adjusted R - squared of interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds was generally high, indicating that the model can explain most of the fund income [45]. - Compared with 2024, in 2025, interest - rate bond funds generally extended their durations and increased exposure to convexity factors. Credit bond funds also extended their durations but to a lesser extent, and their investment strategies became more diversified [45][50][52]. - Short - term bond funds have a higher average exposure to the term structure factor, reflecting their preference for short - term bonds. Medium - and long - term bond funds have more diversified investment directions in credit bonds [55]. 3.3.2 Characteristics of Top - Ranked Pure - Bond Funds in Alpha in 2025 - Top - ranked medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds in Alpha generally have higher exposure to the interest - rate level factor and negative exposure to the term structure factor. Alpha, mainly from the selection effect, has a relatively small impact on their performance [58]. - Top - ranked medium - and long - term credit bond funds in Alpha have negative exposure to the rating spread factor, indicating a tendency to reduce credit risk exposure. Alpha also has a relatively small impact on their performance [61]. 3.3.3 "Fixed - Income +" Fund Attribution Analysis - From early 2025 to August 22, 2025, the adjusted R - squared of "fixed - income +" funds was generally high, and most of them had positive Alpha, indicating strong overall active management ability [63]. - In a low - interest - rate environment, "fixed - income +" funds balance risks and returns through diversified rating allocations and maintain high exposure to option - containing assets [67]. 3.3.4 Characteristics of "Fixed - Income +" Funds with Strong Active Management Ability in 2025 - Top - ranked "fixed - income +" funds in Alpha rely more on the fund manager's active management ability, and Alpha has a greater impact on their performance [76]. - Top - ranked "fixed - income +" funds in the convertible bond factor also mostly have strong active management ability [78]. 3.4 Investment Analysis Opinions - The net - based Campisi model provides a systematic tool for fixed - income funds, helping investors screen and allocate funds with stable strategies and strong active management abilities [80][81].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - As of the end of September 2025, the total wealth management scale reached 31.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.0 trillion yuan compared to the end of last year, but a decrease of 1.0 trillion yuan from the previous month [2][5][6] - The average annualized yield of pure fixed-income wealth management products slightly decreased, with the upper limit at 2.70% and the lower limit at 2.20% as of September 2025 [6][7] - The overall cost of interest-bearing liabilities for A-share listed banks is expected to drop to around 1.63% in Q4 2025, supporting a downward trend in bond yields [6][7] Group 2: Government Bond Market Outlook - The 10-year government bond yield was close to 1.8% at the end of September, with expectations for it to return to around 1.65% by the end of the year [7] - Recommendations for commercial banks to significantly increase their allocation of government bonds during the market adjustment period [7] - Anticipation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October, which may ease the China-US interest rate differential and open up more space for monetary policy easing in China [7] Group 3: Company Overview - Development Technology - Development Technology (920029.BJ) is positioned as a hidden champion in the overseas metering market, benefiting from the global smart grid construction wave [8][9] - The global smart metering market is projected to grow from USD 21.91 billion in 2022 to USD 32.46 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 8.2% [8][9] - The company has a strong market presence in Europe, with a market share exceeding 12%, and has successfully expanded into emerging markets [9][10] Group 4: Financial Performance and Projections - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%, and a net profit of over 390 million yuan, up 32% [10] - The company is expected to add 8 million smart terminals per year through its fundraising projects, which will help maintain its global leading position [10] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 757 million yuan, 935 million yuan, and 1.073 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.0, 13.7, and 12.0 [10]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][8]. Core Views - The company is a technology-driven beauty manufacturing enterprise, firmly implementing a "major clients, major products" strategy. The Chinese cosmetics market is continuously expanding, driving growth in the cosmetics OEM industry. The company has established a good reputation in the industry and has built strong relationships with numerous brand clients [6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Growth - The Chinese cosmetics market is projected to reach CNY 579.1 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%. The skincare market is expected to grow to CNY 318.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. The OEM industry has seen a compound annual growth rate of 15.1% from CNY 21.41 billion in 2017 to CNY 49.76 billion in 2023 [6][21][22]. 2. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 371 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of CNY 16.94 million, up 14.95% year-on-year. The company is expanding its market share despite a decline in gross margin due to changes in client and product structure [41][44]. 3. R&D and Market Expansion - The company holds 138 patents, including 120 invention patents, and has participated in drafting 7 national standards. It focuses on new raw material applications and formula development to support both new and existing brand clients. The company aims to penetrate overseas markets through participation in international exhibitions [48][55]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 54 million, CNY 65 million, and CNY 74 million, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 36.5, 30.6, and 26.8 times. The report compares the company with peers, noting an average PE of 38.1 times for comparable companies in 2025 [8][41].

证券研究报告 保险Ⅱ 分红型疾病险实际支付成本或将下降，险司打开产品创新空间 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——对《关于推动健康保险高质量发展的指导意见》的点评 投资要点： 2025 年 9 月 30 日，国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于推动健康保险高质量发展的 指导意见（金发〔2025〕34 号），内容包括了积极发展商业医疗险、加快发展商业 护理险失能险、稳步发展疾病保险，推动健康险和健康管理融合发展，促进健康产 业协同发展和规范各类经办承办服务等六条意见，涵盖了健康险的核心主要险种（医 疗，长护、失能和疾病）和配套产业服务。 联系人 我们认为"稳步发展疾病保险"中提到的"支持监管评级良好的保险公司开展分红 型长期健康保险业务"对上市保险公司影响较大： 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 15 日 证券分析师 陆韵婷 SAC：S1350525050002 luyunting@huayuanstock.com 沈晨 SAC：S1350525090002 shenchen@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 1、近年来长期疾病险新单销售情况不理想：从行业数据来看，人身险中健康险总 ...

行业评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 公用事业 2025年10月15日 全球脱碳催化绿醇需求放量 关注绿醇供应商与设备投资机遇 证券分析师 证券分析师 姓名：孙延 SAC： S1350524050003 邮箱： sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 姓名：张付哲 SAC： S1350525070001 邮箱：zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 姓名：查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 邮箱：zhahao@huayuanstock.com 姓名：刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 邮箱：liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 姓名：戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 邮箱：daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 联系人 姓名：豆鹏超 邮箱：doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 主要内容 1. 供需：碳排成本催化绿醇需求 航运打开千亿市场空间 2. 绿醇供应商：关注具有成本与消纳优势的弹性个股 3. 中游设备企业：项目开工带动生物质气化炉需求 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the company, with a price of 7.50 CNY per share and a P/E ratio of 10.59X for the upcoming issuance [2][5]. Core Insights - The company, Taikaiying, is recognized as a "little giant" in the engineering radial tire sector, with a projected CAGR of 37.81% for net profit from 2021 to 2024 [10][47]. - The company has developed over 600 tire products suitable for various operational scenarios and holds 166 patents [13][16]. - The engineering radial tire market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 16 billion USD by 2029 [56][60]. Summary by Sections 1. Initial Issuance - The company plans to issue 44,250,000 shares at a price of 7.50 CNY per share, representing 20% of the total post-issuance share capital [2][5]. - The net proceeds from the issuance will be invested in projects aimed at upgrading specialized tire products and enhancing technological capabilities [8][9]. 2. Company Overview - Taikaiying specializes in the design, research, and sales of tires for mining and construction, focusing on reducing tire consumption and improving operational efficiency [10][22]. - The company has a diverse product range, including engineering radial tires and all-steel truck tires, with projected revenues of 1.718 billion CNY from engineering radial tires in 2024 [20][36]. 3. Industry Insights - The global market for engineering radial tires is estimated at 8 billion USD in 2023, with a significant growth trajectory expected [56][60]. - The trend towards radialization in the tire industry is evident, with China's overall radialization rate reaching 95.20% in 2022, although the engineering tire radialization rate was only 43.2% in 2023 [58][61].

Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the wealth - management scale decreased seasonally. As of the end of September 2025, the total wealth - management scale was 31.9 trillion yuan, up 2.0 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year but down 1.0 trillion yuan from the end of the previous month. The scale increase in Q3 2025 was higher than that in the same period from 2022 - 2024 [3][7]. - The average monthly annualized return of pure fixed - income wealth - management products of wealth - management companies decreased slightly in September. The average performance comparison benchmark of newly - issued RMB fixed - income wealth - management products of wealth - management companies has been declining. The upper and lower limits of the average performance comparison benchmark of newly - issued RMB fixed - income wealth - management products in September 2025 were 2.70% and 2.20% respectively [3]. - The cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities of A - share listed banks has been declining rapidly in the past two years. It is expected that the cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities of A - share listed banks in Q4 2025 will drop below 1.65%, and the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year - by - year in the next five years, supporting the downward oscillation of bond yields [3][18]. - There may be a wave of market conditions in the bond market in Q4. The 10Y government bonds have good allocation value for bank self - operation. It is recommended that commercial bank self - operation increase the allocation of government bonds. It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield may return to around 1.65% by the end of the year [3][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Seasonal Decline in September's Wealth - Management Scale - As of the end of September 2025, the total wealth - management scale was 31.9 trillion yuan, up 2.0 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year and down 1.0 trillion yuan from the end of the previous month. The scale increased by 0.17 trillion yuan in January, 0.13 trillion yuan in February, decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan in March, increased by 2.20 trillion yuan in April, increased by 0.19 trillion yuan in May, decreased by 0.86 trillion yuan in June, increased by 2.0 trillion yuan in July, increased by 0.25 trillion yuan in August, and decreased by 1.0 trillion yuan in September. The wealth - management scale is at a historical high, and it may reach 33 trillion yuan in October [6]. - The wealth - management scale decreased by 1.0 trillion yuan in September 2025, close to the seasonal pattern (the average decrease in September from 2021 - 2024 was 0.82 trillion yuan). Despite the stock market's sharp rise in Q3 2025, the total increase in the wealth - management scale in Q3 was 1.25 trillion yuan, higher than that in the same period from 2022 - 2024 [3][7]. 2. Yield of Fixed - Income Wealth - Management Products in September 2025 - The average performance comparison benchmark of newly - issued RMB fixed - income wealth - management products of wealth - management companies has been oscillating downward since early 2022. In September 2025, the upper and lower limits of the average performance comparison benchmark were 2.70% and 2.20% respectively. It is expected that the lower limit may slowly drop to around 2.0% [11]. - The yield of cash - management wealth - management products oscillated in September. As of October 12, 2025, the average 7 - day annualized yield of cash - management wealth - management products of wealth - management companies was 1.30%, while that of money market funds was 1.12%. The yield of money - related products may further decline slightly [12]. - Although the bond market adjusted in September, the average monthly annualized return of pure fixed - income wealth - management products of wealth - management companies was 1.97%, showing that the products were less affected by the bond market adjustment [16]. 3. Investment Suggestion: Declining Bank Liability Costs Support the Bond Market - The cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities of A - share listed banks has been declining rapidly in the past two years. The cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities of A - share listed banks in Q2 2025 was 1.72%, down 8BP quarter - on - quarter and 45BP from the high point in Q4 2023. It is expected to drop below 1.65% in Q4 2025. In the next five years, the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year - by - year, supporting the downward oscillation of bond yields [18]. - China has entered a low - interest - rate era. It is recommended to lower the return expectation of bond investment. Commercial bank self - operation, as the largest bond allocator, also needs to lower the return expectation. In the long run, the bond investment ratio may increase [20]. - It is recommended that commercial bank self - operation increase the allocation of 10Y government bonds during the bond market adjustment. The Fed may cut interest rates by 25BP in October, and there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts in the next six months. It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield may return to around 1.65% by the end of the year [21].

New Consumption - In September 2025, the GMV of the beauty category on Douyin increased by 19.7% year-on-year, while it decreased by 10.4% month-on-month [2][6] - The total GMV of the top 20 beauty brands on Douyin reached over 3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 38.59%. Han Shu maintained the top position with a GMV exceeding 500 million yuan, and 40% of brands saw their GMV double [7][8] - Domestic brands showed strong performance in self-operated channels, with 60% of the top 20 beauty brands having a higher GMV contribution from self-operated sales than from influencer promotions [7][8] - The price distribution in the skincare category is relatively balanced, while the makeup and perfume categories heavily rely on affordable products. The price segment under 150 yuan accounted for 49.54% of the market [8] Real Estate - The real estate sector saw a decline of 0.8% this week, with new home transactions in 42 key cities totaling 980,000 square meters, a 51% decrease week-on-week [10][12] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is focusing on urban renewal and governance, with new regulations introduced in cities like Shenzhen and Chengdu to promote the construction of "good houses" [13][15] - The government is also increasing housing provident fund loan limits in cities like Nanjing and Shaoxing to support homebuyers [13][14] North Exchange - The research on solid-state lithium batteries has made significant progress, with new technologies enhancing the stability of metal lithium anodes [16][17] - The energy storage sector is rapidly developing, with a total of 1,663 energy storage stations in operation as of June 2025, totaling 75.79 GW/175.12 GWh [16][17] - The North Exchange has identified 24 companies in the energy storage industry, spanning upstream material production to downstream system operation [17][18] Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical index rose by 0.36% this week, with expectations for innovative drugs to continue rapid growth and export businesses to perform well [28][29] - The market anticipates catalysts such as ESMO and BD meetings in October, which may stabilize and rebound the innovative drug sector [29][30] - Recommended stocks include innovative drug companies like Xinlitai, Hotgen Biotech, and China Biologic Products, as well as export-oriented firms like WuXi AppTec and Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical [29][34] Company Analysis - Mixue Group plans to invest 286 million yuan to acquire 51% of Fulu Family, expanding its brand matrix into the fresh beer market [36][37] - Fulu Family offers fresh beer products priced between 6 to 10 yuan per 500 ml, focusing on high-quality and affordable offerings [37][38] - The acquisition is expected to leverage Mixue's existing supply chain advantages to enhance its brand presence in the fresh beer sector [38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the beauty care industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - In September 2025, the GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) of the beauty category on Douyin increased by 19.7% year-on-year, although it saw a month-on-month decline of 10.4% [4] - The top 20 beauty brands on Douyin achieved a total GMV exceeding 3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 38.59%. Notably, the brand Han Shu maintained its leading position with over 500 million yuan in GMV, and 40% of brands in the top 20 experienced more than double growth [4] - Domestic brands showed strong performance, with 60% of the top 20 brands having a higher GMV contribution from self-operated channels than from influencer promotions. Brands like Han Shu and Bai Que Ling had over 70% of their GMV from self-operated channels, indicating a competitive advantage for domestic brands in self-operated channels [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The beauty and skincare product price distribution is relatively balanced, while the color cosmetics and fragrance categories heavily rely on affordable products. The price segment under 150 yuan accounted for 49.54% of the market share in September, marking it as the main price segment [4] - Products priced under 150 yuan made up 36.23% of the skincare category, while products priced over 1,000 yuan contributed over 10% to GMV. In contrast, 74% of the GMV in the color cosmetics and fragrance category came from products priced under 150 yuan, indicating a more concentrated price distribution [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic brands that are continuously enhancing their market scale and brand influence through mainstream channels. Recommended stocks include: 1. Mao Ge Ping, a leading high-end domestic beauty brand with strong product and channel expansion capabilities 2. Po Lai Ya, known for its mature organizational structure and industry-leading marketing and management capabilities 3. Wan Mei Biological, which is experiencing accelerated brand growth through its flagship products 4. Shang Mei Co., benefiting from the trend of affordable consumption with multi-category and multi-channel development [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and stock market as a means to boost social expectations and facilitate domestic demand circulation. The focus is on high-quality housing and urban renewal, with a potential wave of development for high-quality residential properties [4][45] - The report suggests that the central government's consistent messaging since September 2024 has been to stabilize the real estate market, especially in light of external economic pressures [4][45] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.3%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.9%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) decreased by 0.8% during the week [4][7] - In terms of individual stocks, Hefei Urban Construction saw a significant increase of 18.1%, while Shenzhen Real Estate A experienced a decline of 12.0% [4][7] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of October 4-10, 2025, 42 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 980,000 square meters, a decrease of 51.0% from the previous week and a year-on-year decline of 53.5% [11][17] - For the month up to October 10, 2025, new housing transactions in these cities totaled 1.22 million square meters, down 44.8% month-on-month and 39.5% year-on-year [17] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - During the same week, 21 key cities recorded a total of 860,000 square meters in second-hand housing transactions, a decrease of 26.6% from the previous week and a year-on-year decline of 48.4% [29][35] - For the month up to October 10, 2025, second-hand housing transactions totaled 930,000 square meters, down 64.5% month-on-month and 29.3% year-on-year [35] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is focusing on urban renewal and governance, with plans to upgrade old houses into "good houses" [45] - New regulations in Shenzhen limit the height of residential buildings to manage safety risks, while Chengdu has increased the area limit for balconies and other auxiliary spaces [45][46] Company Announcements - In September 2025, China Overseas Development reported a sales figure of 20.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, while Poly Developments reported 20.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8% [48] - New City Holdings issued a total of 160 million USD in unsecured fixed-rate bonds with a 2-year term and an interest rate of 11.88% [48]