Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - Increased marketing investment is expected to gradually catalyze performance growth through sports resources [5] - The company has become a partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee, which is anticipated to enhance its product matrix and brand image [7] - The signing of player Yang Hanshen, who was selected in the first round of the NBA draft, is expected to boost the popularity of the company's basketball-related products [7] - The company is focusing on a "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" development strategy, which is expected to drive long-term growth [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 27,598.49 million RMB - 2024: 28,675.64 million RMB - 2025E: 29,026.63 million RMB - 2026E: 30,765.67 million RMB - 2027E: 32,844.70 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are 6.96% in 2023, 3.90% in 2024, 1.22% in 2025, 5.99% in 2026, and 6.76% in 2027 [6] - Projected net profit attributable to the parent company is as follows: - 2023: 3,186.91 million RMB - 2024: 3,012.92 million RMB - 2025E: 2,644.93 million RMB - 2026E: 2,846.01 million RMB - 2027E: 3,103.86 million RMB - The expected net profit growth rates are -21.58% in 2023, -5.46% in 2024, -12.21% in 2025, 7.60% in 2026, and 9.06% in 2027 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The major shareholder's increase in holdings demonstrates confidence and reaffirms the company's cash flow value [5] - The company has a significant cash flow potential, with an average annual distributable cash flow of 750 million RMB over the past five years, suggesting a reasonable market value exceeding 10 billion RMB under a 7% discount rate [7] - The company's short-term performance is influenced by rainfall, but the overall value remains stable due to consistent cash flow and debt repayment [7] Financial Summary - The company's market capitalization is approximately 7,037.61 million RMB [3] - The company's total assets are projected to be 15,563 million RMB in 2024, decreasing to 14,705 million RMB by 2027 [8] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 2,423 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.34% [6] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 413 million RMB, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 89.41% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.97 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.03 [6][8]

投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年07月17日 华源晨会精粹 20250717 固定收益 上半年 5.3%增长背后的"量升价缓"——2025 年 6 月及上半年经济数据 点评：25 年上半年经济运行稳健，但价格仍承压。从总量上来看，2025 年上半年， 中国经济在复杂多变的国内外环境中展现出强劲韧性，GDP 同比增长 5.3%。二季 度 GDP 同比增长 5.2%，环比增长 1.1%，延续了"稳中有进"的态势，其中消费对 经济增长贡献率为 52.3%，拉动 GDP 增长 2.7pct，服务消费和绿色消费成为核心驱 动力。但另一方面，25 年二季度 GDP 现价同比+3.9%，环比下降 0.7pct，名义与实 际 GDP 增速继续分化。从价格上来看，GDP 平减指数连续 9 个季度为负，25Q2 为-1.0%，CPI 四个月以来首次转正，6 月同比+0.1%，近四个月以来 PPI 持续下行 （同比-3.6%），或表明内需修复中消费端政策托底见效、生产端内生动力待强。从 具体数据上看：消费提质和出口韧性凸显双轮驱动共同支撑上半年经济稳步前行。 上半年经济"量升价缓"本质或是经济增长动能转换 ...

商贸零售 证券研究报告 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 17 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 王悦 wangyue03@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 2025 年 6 月社零数据点评 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——6 月社零整体同增 4.8%，家具、家电等品类增速较快 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 6 月社零整体同增 4.8%。6 月社会消费品零售总额为 42287 亿元，同比增长 4.8%。 除汽车外社会消费品零售总额为 37649 亿元，同比增长 4.8%。分区域来看，6 月城 镇/乡村消费品零售总额分别实现 36559/5728 亿元，分别同比+4.8%/+4.5%。 联系人 分消费类型看，商品零售额增速快于餐饮。6 月限额以上单位消费品零售额为 18327 亿元，同比增长 5.0%。分类型来看，6 月限额以上商品零售/餐饮收入总额分别为 16955/1372 亿 元 ， 同 比 +5.5%/-0.4% ...

证券研究报告 电力设备 煤电水电核准维持高位 关注哈电东电投资机会 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——发电设备行业数据点评 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 17 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 证券分析师声明 本报告署名分析师在此声明，本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格并注册为证券分析师，本报告表述的所有观点均准确反映 了本人对标的证券和发行人的个人看法。本人以勤勉的职业态度，专业审慎的研究方法，使用合法合规的信息，独立、客观的出具此报告，本 人所得报酬的任何部分不曾与、不与，也不将会与本报告中的具体投资意见或观点有直接或间接联系。 一般声明 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 火电装机同比高增，今年有望迎来交付高峰。我国 2022 年电力出现紧缺，煤电核准 ...

证券研究报告 医药生物 | 生物制品 非金融|公司专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 17 日 证券分析师 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | | | 2025 | 年 | 07 | | 日 | 16 | 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | | 49.30 | | | | 一 年 内 低 | 最 | 高 | / | 最 | | | | | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | 63.99/13.67 | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | 9,921.98 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | 9,921.98 | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | | | 201.26 | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | ...

证券研究报告 汽车 | 汽车零部件 北交所|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 17 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 07 | 16 | 日 | 月 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | 21.50 | | | | | | 年 内 最 高 最 低 | | | | | | | / | 28.50/10.60 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 2,494.86 | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 1,067.73 | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | 116.04 | | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 18.56 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights the acquisition of 95.09% of Shanghai Lixin Pharmaceutical for approximately $500 million, accelerating the company's globalization efforts [5][7] - The innovative pipeline of Lixin, including dual antibodies and ADCs, is expected to significantly enhance the company's core competitiveness in the oncology field [7] - The financial forecasts indicate a strong growth trajectory for revenue and net profit, with expected net profits of RMB 4.639 billion, RMB 5.003 billion, and RMB 5.405 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 32.56%, 7.84%, and 8.05% [6][8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 26,199 million in 2023, RMB 28,866 million in 2024, RMB 32,562 million in 2025, RMB 36,315 million in 2026, and RMB 40,723 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of -8.97%, 10.18%, 12.80%, 11.53%, and 12.14% [6][8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are RMB 0.13 for 2023, RMB 0.19 for 2024, RMB 0.25 for 2025, RMB 0.27 for 2026, and RMB 0.29 for 2027 [6][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 7.7% in 2023, increasing to 12.7% in 2025, and then slightly decreasing to 11.5% by 2027 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The acquisition of assets has a clear price, and the three-year performance commitment ensures future profitability [6] - The acquisition is expected to enhance earnings per share by 17.65%, with a projected net profit increase for 2024 [8] - The company has a strong coal-electricity integration, which establishes a stable profit margin and supports dividend commitments [8] Financial Summary - The company's market capitalization is approximately 27,869.81 million RMB, with a closing price of 4.27 RMB per share [4] - The projected revenue for 2023 is 22,525 million RMB, with a slight decline expected in subsequent years [7] - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 2,325 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.98% [7] - The company plans to distribute at least 70% of its distributable profits as dividends from 2025 to 2027, with a projected dividend per share of no less than 0.1 RMB [8] - The projected price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025 is 11.99, indicating a favorable valuation [7]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The domestic economic recovery shows continued differentiation, with resilient consumer market recovery and ongoing growth in logistics volume [2][7] - As of July 11, the average duration of long-term government bonds has risen to approximately 5.4 years, while the average duration of credit bonds remains stable at about 2.2 years [8][9] - The report suggests a narrow fluctuation in interest rate bonds for Q3 2025, with a bullish outlook on long-term municipal and capital bonds [9][14] Group 2: Financial Data Overview - In June 2025, new loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, and social financing reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with M2 growing by 8.3% year-on-year [11][13] - The report indicates a significant increase in social financing growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [12][13] - The report anticipates a slight increase in new loans for 2025, driven by government bond financing and credit [11][13] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - China Shengmu (01432.HK) - China Shengmu is the first organic raw milk brand to obtain dual certification from China and the EU, and it is the largest organic raw milk producer in China [22][23] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of the high-end organic milk market as consumer demand for healthy food increases [23][24] - The report forecasts a significant recovery in profits due to the anticipated stabilization of milk and beef prices, which have previously negatively impacted the company's financial performance [23][24] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Crystal Technology (603005.SH) - Crystal Technology is a leading supplier of WLCSP advanced packaging, focusing on CMOS image sensor chips and expanding into new fields such as optical devices and GaN devices [25][26] - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the increasing demand for automotive CIS, with a projected revenue of 1.13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.72% [25][26] - The report highlights the company's strong competitive advantage with a gross margin of 43.28%, which is significantly higher than its peers [26][28]