证券研究报告 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com "四纵"开启内河水运大发展时代 建筑材料 行业专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 19 日 证券分析师 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——重大工程系列报告之五 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 内河水运短板已久，大发展时代即将开启。相对于公路、铁路，水运优势明显，根 据交通运输部，我国铁路、水运和公路单位周转量运价（普货）比约为 1∶0.13∶2.6、 能耗比约为 1∶0.7∶5.2、碳排放比约为 1∶1.3∶10.9，通过多式联运将更多中长距 离公路货运转向水运和铁路，将产生非常可观的经济和社会效益,水运占比提升或为 一国交通体系 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, which is crucial for boosting social expectations and facilitating domestic demand circulation [5][46] - The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.6%, the ChiNext Index by 2.1%, and the CSI 300 by 1.4%, while the real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 6.0% [6][9] - The top five stocks in terms of growth were Shoukai Co. (+57.0%), Suning Universal (+47.1%), Wolong New Energy (+28.1%), Xinda Zheng (+24.5%), and Heimu Dan (+20.9%) [6][9] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of September 6-12, 2025, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.54 million square meters, a decrease of 9.6% from the previous week [15] - For September up to the week of September 12, new housing transactions totaled 2.72 million square meters, an increase of 14.1% month-on-month but a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year [19] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of September 6-12, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.96 million square meters, an increase of 13.5% from the previous week [29] - For September up to the week of September 12, second-hand housing transactions totaled 3.38 million square meters, an increase of 15.6% month-on-month and 21.5% year-on-year [33] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued guidelines to improve the quality of administrative law enforcement in housing construction [46] - The State Council emphasized the importance of high-quality completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with measures to enhance the convenience of real estate registration [46] - The report highlights that Guangdong Province has designated Guangzhou and Shenzhen as pilot cities for modular construction, with a trial period until the end of 2028 [46] Company Announcements - In August, New Town Holdings reported a sales amount of 1.58 billion yuan (down 37% year-on-year), while China Jinmao reported 9.077 billion yuan (up 46.5% year-on-year) [50] - China Jinmao's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 25.11 billion yuan, an increase of 14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.09 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year [50]

Group 1: Policy Impact on Maternal and Infant Industry - The implementation of the "three-child" policy is expected to encourage childbirth, stimulating the maternal and infant industry. Various local governments are introducing subsidies and incentives to support this initiative, with a basic annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child for eligible families starting from January 1, 2025 [5][6][8]. Group 2: Market Growth and Trends - The maternal and infant consumption market in China is steadily increasing, with a projected market size of 7.6 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a recovery in birth rates with an increase of 520,000 births compared to 2023 [8][10]. - The retail scale of the dairy product market in China is expected to reach approximately 521.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a forecast of 596.7 billion yuan by 2026 [15][19]. - The infant complementary food market in China is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.9%, reaching a market size of 81.75 billion yuan by 2029 [23][26]. - The maternal and infant chain industry is projected to grow from 999.5 billion yuan in 2025 to 1,405.2 billion yuan by 2029, with a CAGR of 8.9% [31][34]. Group 3: Company Analysis - Ying's Holdings is a leading enterprise in the infant complementary food sector, with a strong focus on research and development, achieving a revenue of 19.74 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 27.9% from 2021 [43][46]. - Pregnant and Infant World is leveraging a digital and supply chain model for rapid expansion, reporting a revenue of 7.0 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 43.4% [42][48]. - Knight Dairy, based in Inner Mongolia, focuses on high-quality fresh milk resources and is positioned in the upstream of the dairy industry chain, with a revenue of 6.68 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 41% [42][34]. - Southern Dairy emphasizes high-value low-temperature strategies and has a leading market share in Guizhou, with a significant increase in net profit by 78.15% in the first half of 2025 [42][38]. Group 4: Market Structure and Dynamics - The maternal and infant industry chain is diverse, involving multiple segments such as food, textiles, and retail channels, with a significant portion of sales still occurring through offline channels [12][13][17]. - The online sales channel for maternal and infant products is rapidly increasing, with a projected share of 69.5% in 2024, reflecting a shift towards digital consumption [32][54]. - The market share of maternal and infant specialty stores is largest in third-tier and lower cities, which have a lower chain rate of approximately 30%, compared to 75-80% in first and second-tier cities [37][38].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's focus on the "New Energy +" and "Green Hydrogen" dual tracks, positioning it as a key player in the green energy sector [7] - The company has received significant renewable energy subsidies, which are expected to alleviate debt pressure and improve cash flow [7] - The company plans to change its name to "State Power Investment Group Green Energy Development Co., Ltd." to reflect its strategic focus on green energy [7] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 6.569 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 4.63% year-on-year [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 726 million yuan, down 33.72% year-on-year [7] - The company’s coal power and clean energy installed capacity as of June 2025 was 3.3 million kW and 1.135 million kW, respectively, with an increase of 210,000 kW compared to the end of 2024 [7] - The company’s gross profit from various segments showed a decline, particularly in the new energy sector, which decreased by 3.32 billion yuan [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.048 billion, 1.140 billion, and 1.346 billion yuan, respectively [7] - The average P/E ratios for comparable companies in the green energy sector are projected to be 19, 17, and 16 times for 2025-2027 [7] - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the next wave of green energy development [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) due to rapid performance growth and accelerated internationalization [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant revenue increase of 50.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 5.95 billion RMB, and turned a profit with a net profit of 834 million RMB [7]. - The product revenue was 5.23 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.3%, driven by strong performance in oncology and a diverse product pipeline [7]. - The company has 16 commercialized products and is well-positioned for future growth with a robust commercialization team [7]. - IBI363, a dual-target antibody, is expected to become a cornerstone of immuno-oncology therapy, with multiple clinical trials ongoing [7]. - The company has a strong pipeline in metabolic, autoimmune, and ophthalmic areas, with several catalysts expected in the near future [7]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 11.49 billion RMB, 15.37 billion RMB, and 20.60 billion RMB respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.27 billion RMB in 2025, with a staggering growth rate of 1443.7% compared to the previous year [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.74 RMB in 2025, increasing to 1.90 RMB by 2027 [8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from -0.7% in 2024 to 16.7% in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - Short-term fluctuations in second-hand prices are due to supply adjustments and do not hinder long-term performance growth [5] - The company's strong IP incubation and operation capabilities remain a core competitive advantage, with future performance growth likely to be catalyzed by these strengths [8] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese trendy toy industry, with robust IP toy full industry chain operation capabilities, and is expected to achieve significant profit growth in the coming years [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 show substantial growth, with expected revenues of RMB 6,301 million in 2023, increasing to RMB 60,001 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106.92% from 2023 to 2024 and 17.69% from 2026 to 2027 [7][9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from RMB 1,082.34 million in 2023 to RMB 22,009.50 million in 2027, with a remarkable growth rate of 279.10% in 2025 [7][9] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from RMB 0.81 in 2023 to RMB 16.39 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [7][9] Recent Events - Recent fluctuations in the second-hand market prices for the company's IP products, particularly the Labubu series, are attributed to supply adjustments, which are seen as a normal market response [8] - The company has expanded its global presence, with a total of 571 stores and 2,597 robot stores worldwide as of mid-2025, indicating a strong channel expansion strategy [8]

Group 1: Nutritional Functional Food Industry - The nutritional functional food industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a market size projected to reach 522.3 billion yuan in 2024 and 720.3 billion yuan by 2029, representing a CAGR of 6.6% from 2024 to 2029 [2][7] - The market for nutritional functional foods specifically is expected to grow from 233.1 billion yuan in 2024 to 349.9 billion yuan in 2029, with a CAGR of 8.5% [7][8] - The industry has established a complete supply chain, including upstream raw material suppliers, midstream manufacturers, and downstream distributors [8][9] - Key companies in the North Exchange related to this industry include Kangbiter, Wuxi Jinghai, and Hengmei Health, each occupying different positions in the supply chain [9] Group 2: PEEK Material Industry - The PEEK material market in China is projected to reach 1.455 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 21.14% [11] - PEEK materials are widely used in critical components across automotive, electronics, and aerospace sectors, with automotive manufacturing accounting for 27% of global PEEK consumption [11] - The competitive landscape for global PEEK production is characterized by a few strong players, with the UK-based Victrex being the largest producer [11] Group 3: Electronic Industry - Kangguan Technology - Kangguan Technology reported a revenue of 6.935 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.06%, with a net profit of 384 million yuan, down 6.03% [16][17] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.60 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting a dividend payout ratio exceeding 65% [16] - The growth in innovative display products is notable, with a revenue increase of 39.16% in the first half of 2025 [17] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - Sanofi Pharmaceutical - Sanofi Pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 4.355 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a slight decline of 1.07%, while the net profit increased by 19.13% to 1.358 billion yuan [20][21] - The company’s overseas revenue grew by 70%, with a presence in over 35 countries [21][22] - The company has a rich pipeline of clinical trials, with significant potential for future growth [22][23] Group 5: New Consumption - Chaohongji - Chaohongji has submitted an application for H-share listing, which is expected to enhance its global strategy and brand image [24][25] - The company has expanded its international presence by opening stores in Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia, with two stores in Cambodia as of the first half of 2025 [24][25] - The brand is focusing on younger consumers, with a significant portion of its customer base being from the post-80s to post-00s generation [26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company demonstrates confidence in its operations through mid-term dividends and continues to strengthen its AI layout [5] - The company reported a revenue of 6.935 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.06%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 384 million yuan, down 6.03% year-on-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.60 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 65%, reflecting a solid financial position and the ability to sustain profitability [6] Financial Performance - Revenue forecast for 2023 to 2027 is as follows: 13.447 billion yuan (2023), 15.587 billion yuan (2024), 18.840 billion yuan (2025E), 21.735 billion yuan (2026E), and 24.997 billion yuan (2027E) with growth rates of 16.05%, 15.92%, 20.87%, 15.37%, and 15.01% respectively [5] - The company’s innovative display products achieved a revenue of 899 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.16%, with a shipment volume growth of 48.05% [6] - The smart interactive display products generated a revenue of 1.995 billion yuan, up 9.81% year-on-year, while smart TVs reported a revenue of 3.634 billion yuan with a gross margin of 11.88% [6] Profitability and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to 2027 is 1.021 billion yuan (2025), 1.243 billion yuan (2026), and 1.453 billion yuan (2027), with year-on-year growth rates of 22.48%, 21.72%, and 16.94% respectively [7] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 15.91 (2025), 13.07 (2026), and 11.18 (2027) [7] - The company is actively enhancing its AI layout, venturing into AI glasses and companion robots, indicating a focus on innovation and market adaptation [6]

Investment Insights - The overall economic growth rate in Q3 2025 is expected to slow down, with a rising possibility of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year [2][11] - August retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with notable growth in furniture and home appliances [12][13] - The fixed asset investment has weakened for five consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.5% from January to August 2025 [8][9] - The import and export growth rates have shown a temporary decline, with total trade value increasing by 3.5% year-on-year in the first eight months [9][10] Fixed Income Market - The bond market is expected to perform well in the second half of the year, with a projected yield for 10-year government bonds between 1.6% and 1.8% [11] - The current yield for 10-year government bonds is around 1.8%, presenting a favorable cost-benefit ratio [11] New Consumption Sector - The retail sales of essential goods have shown steady growth, while discretionary spending in categories like jewelry and communication devices has increased significantly [12][13] - Online retail sales have accelerated, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6% in the first eight months of 2025 [7][12] Company Analysis: Fujida (835640.BJ) - In H1 2025, Fujida reported a revenue of 408 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit of 37.18 million yuan, up 11% year-on-year [22][23] - The company has seen a significant recovery in defense orders and is actively expanding into medical and low-altitude applications [22][24] - The sales of RF coaxial connectors have steadily increased, supported by a recovery in defense orders [23][24] - The company is focusing on strategic emerging industries and has made breakthroughs in medical and maritime sectors [24][25]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the nutrition functional food industry, highlighting its rapid growth and potential opportunities [4][13]. Core Insights - The nutrition functional food industry in China is experiencing rapid development, with a market size projected to reach CNY 2,331 billion in 2024 and CNY 3,499 billion by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% from 2024 to 2029 [4][13]. - The overall nutrition health food market is expected to grow from CNY 5,223 billion in 2024 to CNY 7,203 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 6.6% [4][13]. - The industry is supported by national strategies and increasing consumer demand for health and wellness products, driven by factors such as economic growth, rising incomes, and an aging population [4][13]. - The industry value chain includes upstream raw material suppliers, midstream manufacturers and brand operators, and downstream distributors and consumers [22][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The nutrition functional food market is rapidly expanding, with significant growth potential due to increasing health awareness among consumers and supportive government policies [4][13]. - The market is characterized by a diverse range of products, including health snacks, weight management, sports nutrition, and beauty nutrition, with health snacks being the largest segment [19][4]. Industry Chain Analysis - The industry chain consists of raw material suppliers, manufacturers, and brand operators, with companies like Wuxi Jinghai focusing on upstream raw materials and Hengmei Health as a leading contract manufacturer [41][4]. - Wuxi Jinghai holds a market share of over 30% in the amino acid raw material sector, while Hengmei Health leads the contract manufacturing market with a 4.2% share [41][4]. Financial Performance - Wuxi Jinghai reported a revenue of CNY 2.03 billion in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18.67%, and a net profit of CNY 37.3 million, reflecting a 34.77% increase [42][44]. - Hengmei Health's performance has shown fluctuations, with revenue and net profit growth rates experiencing declines in recent periods [41][44]. Consumer Insights - The per capita consumption of nutrition functional foods in mainland China is CNY 166 in 2024, which is lower than in countries like the USA and Japan, indicating room for growth [21][26]. - The report emphasizes the need for improved consumer awareness and product differentiation to enhance market penetration [21][22].