证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 03 日 社融有望同比多增 ——2025 年 6 月金融数据预测 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 核心预判：依据过往信贷投放规律及行业观察等，我们预测 2025 年 6 月新增贷款 2.1 万 亿元，社融 3.8 万亿元。6 月末，M2 达 329.2 万亿，YoY+7.9%；M1（新口径）YoY +2.5%； 社融增速 8.8%。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 6 月新增贷款或同比接近。二季度，4 月及 5 月往往是信贷投放小月，6 月为投放大 月。尽管信贷需求持续偏弱，但银行在 6 月往往会冲刺信贷规模，以做大半年末贷 款余额。我们预计 6 月新增贷款 2.1 万亿，同比接近；个贷增量 5000 亿，对公信贷 增量 1.55 万亿，非银同业贷款+500 亿。定期存款利率下调可能提升按揭早偿压力， 但一二线城市成交较活跃，按揭贷款有望正增长。我们预计 6 月个贷短期+1500 亿， 个贷中长期+3500 亿。我们预 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to break the "involutionary" competition in the agricultural sector, suggesting that high-quality, low-cost leading companies may benefit from this shift [3] - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation and the integration of agricultural resources to create a sustainable ecosystem that empowers farmers and drives continuous innovation [6][7] - The report anticipates that the pig farming market, valued at trillions, will see opportunities for technology-driven enterprises that can navigate the challenges of the industry [6] Summary by Sections Production Capacity - As of May, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.15% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [5] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on stabilizing pig prices and controlling production capacity among leading enterprises [5] Market Performance - The price of live pigs reached a new high of 15.08 yuan/kg on July 1, attributed to a reduction in supply and the release of previous weight reduction pressures [7] - The white-feathered chicken market is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," but overall industry growth is expected to continue [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies in the seed industry, particularly those with advanced research capabilities, are likely to see sustained performance growth [11] - The pet economy is highlighted as having strong consumer resilience and significant growth potential, with a favorable market structure [10] Industry Trends - The report notes that the agricultural industry is moving towards a model that emphasizes biotechnology, smart equipment, and low-carbon agriculture as key areas for future development [7] - The feed industry is characterized as a service-oriented sector with opportunities and risks, requiring companies to balance scale and flexibility [9]

证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 服装家纺 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 02 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 23214.03 | 25901.71 | 28532.86 | 31404.28 | 34541.65 | | 同比增长率（%） | 38.39% | 11.58% | 10.16% | 10.06% | 9.99% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3074.07 | 3513.91 | 3927.86 | 4387.93 | 4879.18 | | 同比增长率（%） | 43.74% | 14.31% | 11.78% | 11.71% | 11.20% | | 每股收益（ ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 01 日 报告列表 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年07月01日 华源晨会精粹 20250701 固定收益 制造业 PMI 延续改善——2025 年 6 月 PMI 点评：6 月制造业 PMI 环比上 升 0.2pct 至 49.7%，或因关税暂缓和存量政策落地共同形成支撑。6 月产需相关指 数均位于扩张区间，价格指数略有上升，企业规模分化明显，大型企业景气水平持 续位于扩张区间，小型企业连续 14 个月位于收缩区间。6 月非制造业商务活动指数 为 50.5%，环比上升 0.2pct。6 月服务业商务活动指数和建筑业商务活动指数分别为 50.1%和 52.8%，较上月分别-0.1pct/+1.8pct。6 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.7%， 较上月+0.3pct，持续位于扩张区间，显示企业生产经营活动总体扩张有所加快，经 济内生动力稳步改善。明确看多收益率 2%以上的长久期城投债及银行资本债。 风险提示：财政大幅发力，导致债市调整；理财及债基等监管政策可能超预期，带 来债市扰动；股市可能大幅走强，对债市情绪有 ...

证券研究报告 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 01 日 证券分析师 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 房地产 住建部调研好房子，多地优化公积金政策 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（25/06/21-25/06/27） 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产量价超预期下行、房地产融资资金趋紧、房地产政策不及预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 板块行情：本周上证指数上升 1.9%、深证成指上升 3.7%、创业板指上升 5.7%、沪 深 300 上升 2.0%、房地产（申万）上升 3.1%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为： 衢州发展(+15.5%)、华远控股(+13.8%)、珠江股份(+10.1%)、新黄浦(+10.1%)、ST 数源(+9.6%)，涨跌幅后五的分别为：万通发展(-4.8%)、深深房 A(-2.7%)、深振业 A(-1.3%)、中国国贸(-1.2%)、新城控股(-1.0%)。 数据跟踪：新房：本周（6.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on product development and channel innovation driving performance growth [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic sports apparel market, with ongoing channel upgrades and sustained investment in research and development enhancing brand strength and operational efficiency [8]. - The forecasted net profit for the company is expected to grow from 1.315 billion RMB in 2025 to 1.670 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 14.50%, 12.75%, and 12.63% respectively [6][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of June 27, 2025, the closing price is HKD 4.99, with a market capitalization of HKD 10,317.73 million and a debt-to-asset ratio of 26.72% [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11,540.03 million RMB, 13,113.23 million RMB, and 14,773.90 million RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 14.56%, 13.63%, and 12.66% [6][8]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is forecasted to decrease from 9.85 in 2023 to 5.67 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation compared to peers [6]. Investment Logic - The company is leveraging traditional store upgrades and the introduction of "super stores" to capture the attention of new-generation consumers, which is expected to drive revenue growth [10]. - Continuous investment in research and marketing is enhancing the brand's professional image and recognition among target demographics [10]. - A stringent supply chain selection process is expected to improve operational efficiency [10]. Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the sports apparel sector for over 20 years, enhancing its brand image through partnerships with major international sporting events [15]. - The company’s revenue and gross profit have shown consistent growth, with 2024 revenue reaching 10.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.59% [18]. Channel and Product Upgrades - The company is focusing on channel upgrades, with a total of 7,115 stores globally by 2024, reflecting a 1.73% year-on-year increase [49]. - The children's business segment is growing rapidly, with revenue contribution increasing from 18.20% in 2020 to 23.20% in 2024 [61]. - Online sales are also on the rise, with a 12.21% increase in revenue from online channels in 2024 [64]. Market Trends - The global sports apparel market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2023 to 2027, with emerging markets driving significant growth [32]. - The domestic sports apparel market is projected to reach 598.9 billion RMB by 2025, with a CAGR of 11.62% from 2021 to 2025 [33].

王悦 wangyue03@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 06 | 月 | 27 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | 13.70 | | | | | 一 年 内 高 / 低 | 最 | 最 | | 18.18/4.02 | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 12,172.62 | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | 11,877.96 | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | 888.51 | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 41.56 | | | | | 每股净资产（元/股） | | | | 4.19 | | | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | | | 证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 饰品 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 01 日 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 ding ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 01 日 经济的边际变化或在于消费 ——利率周报（2025.6.23-2025.6.29） 投资要点： 本周（6/23-6/29）市场概览： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 宏观要闻：6 月 24 日央行等六部门联合发布《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导 意见》。6 月 23 日央行政策委员会召开了 2025 年第二季度例会，会议认为世界经 济增长动能趋缓，对国内经济表述更加乐观，近期实施降准降息的概率可能不大。 目前以色列和伊朗宣布正式停火，国内国际油价大幅走低。 中观高频数据：经济修复呈现"消费韧性与工业分化并存、地产链弱势未改"的格 局。消费市场政策刺激成效显著：截至 6 月 22 日当周乘用车厂家日均零售同比 +30.0%，截至 6 月 13 日当周三大家电零售量/额同比分别+24.6%/+13.5%。交运物 流方面供应链韧性凸显：截至 6 月 22 日当周铁路货运量同比+2.4%，当周高速 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 01 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | | 27 | | 年 | 06 | 月 | 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 6.26 | | | | 一 年 最 / 最 | | 高 | | 低 | | | | | 内 | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | 3,506.31 | | | | 每股净资产（元/股） | | | | | | | 7.63 | | | | | | | | | | | 7.40/5.40 | | | | （元） | | | ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The demand for konjac and its products is steadily increasing, driving price growth due to strong downstream demand[2] - China's konjac planting area peaked at 2.87 million mu in 2020 but has declined to 2.42 million mu by 2024[2] - The consumption of konjac in China has grown from 14.8 thousand tons in 2011 to 54.84 thousand tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.6%[2] Group 2: Price Trends - The price of fresh konjac has risen from 1.3 yuan per jin in 2004 to 8.8 yuan per jin in 2024[2] - Konjac powder prices increased from 38,000 yuan per ton in 2002 to 105,000 yuan per ton in 2024, while flower konjac powder rose from 26,000 yuan per ton to 94,000 yuan per ton[2] - The gross profit margin for konjac powder in 2024 is reported at 25.15%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year[41] Group 3: Company Performance - Yichang Konjac's revenue reached 617 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.76%, with a net profit of 86.72 million yuan, up 64.41%[46] - In Q1 2025, Yichang Konjac reported revenue of 152 million yuan, a 35.03% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 22.70 million yuan, up 36.95%[46] Group 4: Industry Overview - The overall market concentration in China's konjac industry is low, with a high degree of marketization[22] - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the North Exchange's consumer service sector increased from 50.5X to 52.4X[53] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange's consumer service sector rose from 116.7 billion yuan to 121.7 billion yuan[58]