证券研究报告 ——北交所收并购周跟踪第八期（20260131） 投资要点： | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 04 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 胡文瀚 风险提示：并购政策变动风险、项目审批进度风险、宏观环境变化风险 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 huwenhan@huayuanstock.com 江丰电子拟控股凯德石英，胜业电气拟 1.1 亿元控股华佳新材 科创板+创业板+北证并购跟踪：本期新披露 13 起大额股权交易，交易总金 额超 144 亿元。本周期（指 2026.1.1-1.31，后同）"双创"+北证共发生 13 起大额新披露并购交易事件（含收购股权、出售股权及增资事件等），交 易总额超 144 亿元。其中规模较大项目包括：富临精工 12.00%股权权益拟 变动（认购方为宁德时代），晶科能源子公司海宁晶科拟增资扩股等等。从 收购标的业务领域来看，聚焦在新能源等产业领域。 北证投资并购动态更新：新增 5 起并购事件、13 起投资和增资事件。本周期 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 04 日 投资要点： 风险提示：电量需求不及预期、煤价涨幅超预期、电价不及预期。 | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 27,867 | 30,094 | 30,516 | 29,854 | 30,408 | | 同比增长率（%） | 8.26% | 7.99% | 1.40% | -2.17% | 1.86% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,430 | 2,064 | 2,193 | 1,806 | 1,988 | | 同比增长率（%） | 186.37% | 44.36% | 6.28% | -17.66% | 10.08% | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.63 | 0.91 | 0.97 | 0.80 | 0.88 | | ROE（%） | 10.32% | 13.04% | 12.72% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The logic supporting the discount repair of credit bond ETFs remains unchanged, and the discount is expected to oscillate towards zero in Q1 2026 [3][27] - The investment value of short - to medium - term science and technology bond components that have experienced short - term over - decline is emerging [3][43] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Credit Bond ETFs: Surge and Decline, with Continuous Net Value Repair - In mid - to late December 2025, the circulating shares and market value of credit bond ETFs surged rapidly, then declined quickly in early 2026. As of January 28, 2026, the total market value of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs was 108.3 billion yuan, and the circulating shares were 1.072 billion; the total market value of science and technology bond ETFs was 291.7 billion yuan, with 2.911 billion circulating shares; the total market value of corporate bond spread factor ETFs, urban investment bond ETFs, and short - term financing ETFs was 126.9 billion yuan, with 3.679 billion circulating shares [3][7] - From December 16 - 31, 2025, 8 benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had a net inflow of 12 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 20.2 billion yuan from January 5 - 28, 2026; 24 science and technology bond ETFs had a net inflow of 87.1 billion yuan from December 16 - 31, 2025, and a net outflow of 65.9 billion yuan from January 5 - 28, 2026 [3][7] - As of January 28, 2026, the average unit net value of science and technology bond ETFs was 100.42 yuan per share (only the Southern Science and Technology Bond ETF was below 100 yuan), and the average unit net value of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs was 101.28 yuan per share. The net value of credit bond ETFs has been continuously repairing since early December 2025 [15] 3.2 The Discount Repair of Credit Bond ETFs is still Promising - From November 21, 2025, to January 28, 2026, benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs maintained a deep discount of 19 - 47 BP without signs of repair; the discount rate of science and technology bond ETFs has been continuously repairing since late November 2025, briefly approaching zero from December 23 - 26, 2025, and then quickly falling back to a deep discount [19] - The reason for the difference in the discount rate between the two types of ETFs in late December 2025 may be due to liquidity differences. Science and technology bond ETFs have better on - site liquidity and are better discount arbitrage targets [25] - The logic supporting the discount repair remains unchanged. In Q1 2026, the discount of credit bond ETFs is expected to oscillate towards zero [27] 3.3 Is there Room for Excess Returns in the Component Bonds? - The valuation yield of short - term components of the CSI AAA science and technology innovation corporate bond index has increased since early 2026, while the medium - to long - term components over 3 years have decreased to varying degrees, and the yield curve has flattened [29] - The excess spread of the CSI AAA science and technology innovation index components has narrowed and then widened. The adjustment range is greater than that of the Shanghai - listed market - making corporate bond index, indicating that the science and technology bond index components are more sensitive to market conditions [29][35] - The excess spread of short - to medium - term science and technology bond components has adjusted to near the high since December 2025, and their investment value is emerging [43] 3.4 Review of the Top Three Science and Technology Bond ETFs by Average Daily Trading Volume in 2025 3.4.1 Science and Technology Bond ETF Guotai - As of January 28, 2026, the circulating shares were 128 million, the total market value was 12.884 billion yuan, and the unit net value was 100.56 yuan per share. It had the highest average daily trading volume in 2025, reaching 9.488 billion yuan [44] - As of January 28, 2026, the discount rate was 0.24%, in the 13.4% percentile since listing, with sufficient discount arbitrage space [45] - The fund tracks the CSI AAA science and technology innovation corporate bond index. 98.5% of its component bonds are issued by central and local state - owned enterprises. The weighted average remaining exercise period is 3.27 years [47] 3.4.2 Science and Technology Bond ETF Huatianfu - As of January 28, 2026, the circulating shares were 191 million, the total market value was 19.095 billion yuan, and the unit net value was 100.42 yuan per share. The average daily trading volume in 2025 was 7.835 billion yuan [54] - As of January 28, 2026, the discount rate was 0.24%, in the 21.9% percentile since listing. From September 30, 2025, to January 28, 2026, the maximum drawdown was 0.26%, and the annualized volatility was 0.33%, better than the average level of science and technology bond ETFs [54] - The fund tracks the CSI AAA science and technology innovation corporate bond index. 96.6% of its component bonds are issued by central and local state - owned enterprises. The weighted average remaining exercise period is 3.26 years [57] 3.4.3 Science and Technology Bond ETF Nanfang - As of January 28, 2026, the circulating shares were 97 million, the total market value was 9.666 billion yuan, and the unit net value was 99.94 yuan per share. The average daily trading volume in 2025 was 7.237 billion yuan [59] - As of January 28, 2026, the discount rate was 0.03%, in the 52.6% percentile since listing. From September 30, 2025, to January 28, 2026, the annualized volatility was 0.51%, which may be suitable for more aggressive institutions [59][64] - The fund tracks the CSI AAA science and technology innovation corporate bond index. 98.1% of its component bonds are issued by central and local state - owned enterprises. The weighted average remaining exercise period is 3.61 years [61]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on Haisheng Medical as a leading player in the anesthesia and monitoring medical device sector, recommending attention to the company [4][5]. Core Insights - Haisheng Medical is set to issue shares at a price of 12.64 CNY per share with an initial issuance of 11.29 million shares, representing 15% of the total post-issue share capital [4][7]. - The company has a projected total investment of 482.7 million CNY for its fundraising projects, primarily aimed at upgrading and automating its anesthesia monitoring emergency medical devices [4][10]. - The company reported a net profit of 58.78 million CNY for Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.70% [4][12]. - The global low-value consumables market is expected to grow steadily, potentially reaching 129.82 billion USD by 2030, with the Chinese market for low-value medical consumables projected to reach 221.3 billion CNY by 2025 [4][14][18]. Company Overview - Haisheng Medical, established in 2000, specializes in anesthesia and monitoring medical devices, achieving a net profit of 78.04 million CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 11% [4][12]. - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix covering eight major series, including airway and respiratory management, life information monitoring, and nerve block products [4][14]. - As of November 13, 2025, the company holds 63 national authorized patents, including 13 invention patents, and has 53 medical device registrations [4][14]. Market Potential - The global medical device market is projected to grow from 479.36 billion USD in 2023 to 637.96 billion USD by 2028, with China's medical device market expected to reach 1.66 trillion CNY by 2030 [4][14]. - The demand for low-value medical consumables in China is anticipated to grow rapidly, with the market size expected to reach 221.3 billion CNY in 2025 [4][18]. Subscription Recommendation - Haisheng Medical is positioned as a leading supplier in the anesthesia and monitoring medical device sector, with a strong focus on product quality and continuous technological innovation [4][12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The pig price is weakening, and supply pressure remains after the festival, with the current industry breeding profit turning positive and the sentiment for replenishment continuing to recover [2][12] - The industry policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation, which may lead to a better performance of growth stocks in the future [3][12] - The high-quality development of the industry is imperative, with cost-leading and farmer-linked enterprises likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [3][13] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine breeding sector has seen a slight increase of 0.2%, gradually digesting concerns about slow capacity reduction [2][12] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter has decreased from high levels, with prices adjusting weakly to 12.31 CNY/kg [2][12] - The price of 7 kg piglets has risen to 367 CNY, indicating a weak expectation for capacity reduction [2][12] - The policy shift towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation is expected to positively influence pig prices and profitability in 2026 [3][12] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," with the price of broiler chickens at 3.7 CNY/kg, down 3.4% week-on-week [4][13] - The impact of avian influenza in France may lead to a reduction in imported breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices for parent stock [4][13] - Integrated enterprises and contract farming are expected to expand market share in 2026 [4][14] 3. Feed Industry - The prices of various aquatic products have rebounded, with significant year-on-year increases for some species [5][15] - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio [6][15][16] - The company aims for a global sales target of 100 million tons by 2050, with ongoing overseas market expansion [6][16] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is facing pressure with concerns over Q4 2025 performance, but there are signs of recovery in domestic sales [7][17] - Companies like Zhongchong and Peidi are recommended for their strong domestic sales growth potential [7][17] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices have increased slightly, supported by weather disturbances and procurement demand [8][18] - Corn prices have shown fluctuations, with a slight decrease due to reduced channel stocking [8][18] - The price of eggs has decreased, indicating a potential peak in trade inventory [8][18]

Fixed Income - The overall scale of interest rate bond funds has decreased, with total assets amounting to 3.0 trillion yuan as of Q4 2025, down by 0.09 trillion yuan from Q3 2025 [6][7] - The average yield of interest rate bond funds has rebounded to +0.44% in Q4 2025, compared to -0.48% in Q3 2025, but remains significantly lower than the 4.42% yield in 2024 [8][19] - The expected yield range for 10-year government bonds in 2026 is projected to be between 1.6% and 1.9%, with opportunities for long-term bonds anticipated to arise after significant market corrections [8][19] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell back below the expansion threshold to 49.3 in January 2026, indicating a slowdown in production activities compared to the previous month [11][10] - The non-manufacturing PMI also decreased to 49.4, suggesting a contraction in service sector activities, with the composite PMI output index at 49.8 [11][10] - The consumption sector is expected to receive policy support, but the impact may be weaker than in 2025 due to high base effects from the previous year [11][10] Social Financing - The forecast for new loans in January 2026 is 4.9 trillion yuan, with social financing expected to reach 7.07 trillion yuan, indicating a slight year-on-year increase [15][18] - M2 is projected to reach 345.1 trillion yuan by the end of January, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [15][18] - The social financing growth rate is expected to decline to around 8.1% by the end of January 2026, following a peak in mid-2025 [18][15] Pharmaceutical Sector - The approval of phosphoric acid lebrikizumab cream for the treatment of vitiligo marks a significant milestone for the company, being the first targeted therapy for this condition in China [21][22] - Clinical trials have shown promising results, with a significant percentage of patients achieving a 75% improvement in vitiligo area after 24 weeks of treatment [21][22] - The company is also pursuing additional indications for the cream, including atopic dermatitis, which could further enhance its market potential [22][21] New Consumption Sector - The company holds exclusive operational rights for key scenic areas and has established a robust management system for mountain tourism, positioning it well for growth [25][26] - The opening of the Shenbai high-speed railway is expected to significantly increase visitor traffic, enhancing accessibility to the scenic area [27][26] - The company plans to raise 236 million yuan for expanding its facilities and improving transportation, which is anticipated to boost its operational capacity and customer experience [27][26]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook following the divestiture of its real estate business and steady growth in the cosmetics segment [5][42]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned its main business focus to cosmetics and pharmaceuticals after divesting its real estate operations in 2023. The cosmetics segment has shown resilience, contributing over 52.8% of total revenue [10][41]. - The company is leveraging a "product + R&D + channel" strategy to build competitive advantages, focusing on marketing synergies, innovation in product development, and a comprehensive online and offline sales network [8][30][34]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 38.1 billion, RMB 39.3 billion, and RMB 43.0 billion, with corresponding growth rates of -4.3%, +3.1%, and +9.5% respectively. Net profit is expected to reach RMB 2.4 billion, RMB 2.7 billion, and RMB 3.1 billion during the same period [9][41]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is RMB 7.36, with a total market capitalization of RMB 7,481.95 million and a circulating market value of RMB 7,481.95 million [3]. Financial Data - The company reported a gross margin of 46.49% in 2023, a significant increase of 21.84 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to the strategic shift away from low-margin real estate operations [21]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates a decline in revenue for 2023, followed by a gradual recovery, with net profit growth projected at +0.2%, +8.8%, and +15.3% for the years 2025 to 2027 [9][41]. Business Segments - The cosmetics segment is expected to see revenue growth of -5%, +6%, and +14% from 2025 to 2027, while the pharmaceutical segment is projected to grow at -5%, -3%, and +5% during the same period [10][41]. - The raw materials and additives segment is forecasted to grow steadily, with revenue increases of +3%, +4%, and +5% from 2025 to 2027 [10]. Competitive Positioning - The company is positioned favorably against comparable domestic brands, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28 times for 2026, aligning with industry averages [42]. Marketing and R&D Strategy - The company has invested significantly in R&D, with a budget of RMB 1.16 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a research expense ratio of 4.47% [30]. - New product launches and marketing initiatives are focused on enhancing brand visibility and consumer engagement across various channels, including e-commerce and physical retail [28][34]. Sales Channels - The cosmetics segment's revenue is heavily driven by online sales, contributing 84.2% of total revenue, while offline sales account for 15.8% [34]. - The company is expanding its presence in both online and offline markets, establishing flagship stores on major e-commerce platforms and increasing the number of physical retail locations [34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The approval of Lurcatinib cream marks a significant opportunity in the vitiligo market, being the first and only targeted therapy approved in China for this condition [7] - Clinical trials have shown positive results, with a significant percentage of patients achieving at least a 75% improvement in facial vitiligo area score after 24 weeks of treatment [7] - The company is also pursuing additional indications for Lurcatinib cream, including atopic dermatitis, which could further enhance its market potential [7] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023: 8,013 million RMB, 2024: 7,469 million RMB, 2025: 8,166 million RMB, 2026: 9,628 million RMB, and 2027: 12,069 million RMB, with growth rates of -12.4%, -6.8%, 9.3%, 17.9%, and 25.4% respectively [6] - Net profit forecasts are: 2023: 2,401 million RMB, 2024: 1,620 million RMB, 2025: 1,681 million RMB, 2026: 1,942 million RMB, and 2027: 2,333 million RMB, with growth rates of -26.3%, -32.5%, 3.8%, 15.6%, and 20.1% respectively [6] - The estimated reasonable market value for the company in 2026 is 677 billion HKD, based on a combination of price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios [7]

证券分析师 证券研究报告 社会服务 | 旅游及景区 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 03 日 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 李禹蒙 liyumeng@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | | 02 | 年 | 月 | 02 | 日 | | 2026 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | 42.47 | | | | | | | | | 年 内 最 低 | 最 | 高 | / | | | | | | 60.33/29.73 | | 一 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | 11,566.95 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | 11,325.47 | | | | 总股本 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 03 日 ——利率半月报（2026.1.19-2026.2.1） 投资要点： 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 重回荣枯线以下 报告核心观点：1 月制造业 PMI 较上月回落，重回荣枯线以下，非制造业 PMI 同步 回落，均时隔一个月再度进入收缩区间，或表明我国企业生产经营活动总体较上月 有所放缓。1 月制造业 PMI 环比-0.8pct 至 49.3%，1 月非制造业商务活动指数为 49.4%，环比-0.8pct，1 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.8%，较上月-0.9pct，均略低于 荣枯线。预计 26 年消费端持续有政策支持但力度或较 25 年有所回落，叠加 25 年社 零表现亮眼，高基数下 26 年消费端对经济的支撑效果或有所减弱。投资端基建和地 产对经济的拖累或将持续。受 25 年上半年抢出口影响，26 年外贸增长韧性有待观 察。或需持续关注稳增长政策落地效果及新质生产力等方向对经济的支撑作用。 本周（1/19-2/1）市场概览： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 ...