hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 01 日 证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 服装家纺 港股|公司点评报告 证券分析师 符超然 SAC：S1350525050004 fuchaoran@huayuanstock.com 联系人 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 11 | 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 4.96 | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 5.37/3.46 | | 元） | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 57,683.58 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 57,683.58 | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 42.99 | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | 波司登(03998.HK) 投资评级： 买入（维持） ——收入及利润正增长，全新设计师系列推动品牌价值提升 投资要点： 风险提示。新品推广不及预期风险，极端气候影响风险，内外需不及预期风险。 | 盈利预测与估值（人民 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and ongoing cost reductions, presenting dual upside potential in performance and valuation [14] - In the shipping sector, the outlook for crude oil transportation is favorable due to the OPEC+ production increase and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The market for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) is expected to see significant improvement in Q4 2025 [14] - The shipbuilding sector is in the early stages of a green renewal cycle, with shipping market conditions and green upgrade progress being key demand drivers. Despite a decline in new ship orders, shipyards remain busy, and the market is expected to improve in the second half of 2025 [14] - The aviation sector shows signs of a long-term bullish trend, with stable demand growth and tightening supply. Companies like China Eastern Airlines and Hainan Airlines are recommended for early positioning [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is seeing a significant increase in demand, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% in business volume and 4.7% in revenue as of October 2025 [24] - Major players like YTO Express and SF Express are expanding their market shares and improving service capabilities, with SF Express showing a 26.26% increase in business volume [31][24] Shipping - The VLCC daily earnings reached $120,248 in November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 270.9%, marking the best performance for November since 2004 [6] - The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) surpassed 2500 points, indicating a strong demand for bulk shipping, driven by increased shipments from Australian miners and adverse weather affecting port operations in North China [7] Aviation - In October 2025, civil aviation in China recorded a passenger transport volume of 67.83 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and cargo transport volume of 91.7 thousand tons, up 13.4% [10] - Approximately 6000 Airbus A320 aircraft require urgent software updates due to safety concerns, which may impact operational efficiency [10] Port Operations - From November 17 to November 23, 2025, China's port cargo throughput was 26,401 million tons, a decrease of 0.62% week-on-week, while container throughput increased by 5.39% [72]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media and internet industry [3] Core Insights - The film market is primarily supply-driven, with strong performances from quality imported films like "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar 3" expected to boost box office growth in China [3][4] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in film production and distribution, as well as cinema chains [3][4] - The AI application sector is witnessing significant advancements, particularly in content production, which is expected to enhance IP content and reduce costs [5][6] - The internet sector is seeing rapid growth with new AI applications, such as Alibaba's "Qianwen APP," which quickly gained popularity [7] - The gaming industry is experiencing a surge in new game licenses, with a record 184 licenses issued in November, indicating a robust pipeline for future releases [8][26] Summary by Sections Film and Television - "Zootopia 2" has achieved a total box office of 1.3 billion yuan, with a single-day box office of over 700 million yuan on November 29, 2025 [3][39] - The report highlights the strong performance of imported films and suggests monitoring related production and distribution companies [4] - In the television sector, new policies are expected to foster content creation and development, benefiting long-form video platforms and production companies [4] AI Applications - The launch of Nano Banana Pro enhances content production capabilities, indicating a shift towards AI-driven content creation [5] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI in transforming content production paradigms, particularly in the comic and animation sectors [5][6] Internet Sector - Alibaba's "Qianwen APP" achieved over 10 million downloads within a week of its public release, showcasing the rapid adoption of AI applications [7] - The report suggests that leading internet companies are strategically adjusting their organizational structures to enhance their competitive edge in AI [7] Gaming Industry - A total of 184 game licenses were issued in November, with 178 being for domestic games, reflecting a healthy growth trajectory for the gaming sector [8][26] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in leading gaming companies that are innovating with AI and new game releases [8] New Business Models - The report discusses the rise of "group broadcasting" as a new business model that shifts the industry towards systematic growth rather than relying on individual charisma [9] - Companies directly involved in group broadcasting and those benefiting from its growth are highlighted as potential investment targets [9] Market Performance - The media sector saw a 4.23% increase in stock performance from November 24 to November 28, 2025, ranking fourth among all industries [15][18] - The report provides insights into the performance of various media companies, with notable gains in stocks such as Reader Media and BlueFocus [18][21]

Group 1 - The "Implementation Plan" proposes to form three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, focusing on consumption upgrades to lead industrial upgrades and better meet diverse demands [5][6][10] - The total number of consumer goods in China has reached 230 million, with over 100 categories such as home appliances, furniture, and clothing being the largest in global production [9][10] - The plan identifies key consumption areas including elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics, which are expected to show strong growth momentum and development potential [10][18] Group 2 - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the North Exchange's consumer service stocks is -0.48%, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Zhu Laoliu (+8.30%) and Thunder Technology (+7.46%) [35][41] - The total market capitalization of consumer service companies on the North Exchange decreased from 1097.59 billion to 1093.85 billion, with a median market cap drop from 19.44 billion to 18.97 billion [37][43] - The median TTM P/E ratio for the broader consumer industry decreased from 51.7X to 49.7X, indicating a slight decline in valuation [45][46] Group 3 - Jinbo Bio received a Class D medical device registration certificate in the Philippines, marking a significant achievement for China's high-end implantable medical devices in the international market [54][57] - The report highlights several companies related to the key consumption areas mentioned in the "Implementation Plan," including health products (Yicheng Konjac), cultural IP (Baixinglong), pet food (Lusi Co.), smart home (Shisheng Intelligent), and consumer electronics (Thunder Technology) [33][34]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Views - The company is a leading private national city gas company, with ongoing privatization efforts aimed at promoting industry chain integration [5][8]. - The natural gas retail business shows steady growth, benefiting from cost reductions and price adjustments, while the gas connection business's impact is expected to stabilize [8][44]. - The company is expanding its diversified energy and smart home businesses, which are anticipated to contribute to incremental performance growth [5][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1993, is a leading private clean energy distributor in China, primarily engaged in the investment, construction, operation, and management of gas pipeline infrastructure [14][15]. - As of mid-2025, the company operates 263 city gas projects across 22 provinces and municipalities in China [14]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 113.858 billion in 2023, with a projected decline to RMB 109.853 billion in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 112.714 billion in 2025 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 6.816 billion in 2023, decreasing to RMB 5.987 billion in 2024, and then increasing to RMB 6.248 billion in 2025 [4]. Privatization Process - The company is undergoing a privatization process led by its major shareholder, New Hope Group, which currently holds 34.28% of the company [5][38]. - The privatization plan includes a share exchange and cash payment, with a total value of HKD 80 per share, indicating a 12.8% upside from the closing price on November 28, 2025 [5][40]. Natural Gas Business - The company’s retail gas volume is projected to reach 262 billion cubic meters in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [5][48]. - The gas connection business has seen a decline in new residential connections, dropping from 2.622 million in 2021 to 1.617 million in 2024, but the impact on overall revenue is manageable compared to peers [5][74]. Growth Opportunities - The company is expanding its diversified energy and smart home businesses, with the smart home segment expected to grow at a CAGR of 22.7% from 2020 to 2024 [5][8]. - The company has a robust pipeline of projects in the energy sector, with a total installed capacity of 6.9 GW and 1.6 GW under construction as of September 2025 [5][8]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 80.284 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 50.52% as of mid-2025, indicating a stable financial position [2][4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 12, 11, and 10 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, which is competitive compared to peers [6].

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 豆鹏超 doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 投资评级： 看好（维持） 关注储能容量电价机制进展 输配电价定价办法 出台 ——大能源行业 2025 年第 48 周周报（20251130） 投资要点： 储能：省级规划加快出台 关注各省容量机制进展 2025 年 11 月，湖北省、黑龙江省分别印发《湖北省储能体系建设方案（2025-2030 年）》 和《黑龙江省新型储能规模化建设专项实施方案（2025-2027 年）》。其中： 1）湖北省：到 2027 年全省储能装机达到 800 万千瓦，到 2030 年全省储能装机达到 1700 万千瓦，支撑 8000 万千瓦以上的新能源合理消纳利用。分类型 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3][43]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the potential of innovative drugs as the main investment theme for the year, with a focus on manufacturing overseas and aging-related consumption as relatively undervalued assets [13][31]. - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry has completed the transition from old to new growth drivers, with innovative drugs significantly opening new growth avenues for Chinese pharmaceutical companies [31][32]. Summary by Sections UBT251 and Federal Pharmaceuticals - UBT251, a long-acting GLP-1/GIP/GCG agonist developed by Federal Pharmaceuticals, shows promising clinical results and potential in overseas markets [8][9]. - The global sales of Semaglutide are projected to exceed $30 billion in 2025, indicating a robust market for GLP-1 drugs [7][9]. - Federal Pharmaceuticals has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for UBT251, which could align with the patent expiration of Semaglutide in 2032 [8][9]. Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical index rose by 2.67% from November 24 to November 28, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.03% [4][13]. - A total of 419 stocks in the sector increased in value, while 49 stocks declined during the same period [4][17]. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include innovative drug companies such as Xinlitai, Zai Lab, and Federal Pharmaceuticals, as well as companies with improving performance like WuXi AppTec and Kairos Pharma [4][35]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors with stable operations and low valuations that are expected to see fundamental changes in 2026 [4][31]. Market Trends - The report highlights the increasing importance of aging populations and chronic disease management, which are driving demand in the healthcare sector [31][34]. - The ongoing development of AI technologies is expected to create new growth opportunities within the pharmaceutical industry [31][34].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the upcoming overseas sales peak for Pop Mart, driven by its IP influence, with participation in major events like the Thanksgiving parade enhancing brand visibility [4] - The cosmetics collection store channel is gradually recovering, with Naturals leading in both overall and domestic rankings, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards self-care products [4] - The growth of emerging consumer goods reflects new consumption concepts among younger generations, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for investment opportunities [4][16] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector saw a weekly increase, with the beauty care index up by 0.50%, retail index up by 3.45%, and social services index up by 3.92% during the week of November 24 to November 28, 2025 [7] Key Industry Data - In October, retail sales for clothing and textiles increased by 6.3%, cosmetics by 9.6%, and gold and silver jewelry by 37.6% [11][18] - The average sales per store in the cosmetics collection channel grew by 1.2%, with customer transactions increasing by 9.4% [4] Investment Analysis Recommendations - Focus on high-quality domestic brands in beauty care, such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei, and leading brands in ancient gold jewelry favored by younger consumers, like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [16] - In the collectible toy sector, attention should be given to companies with strong IP creation and operational experience, such as Pop Mart [16] - For ready-to-drink tea, consider strong brands with extensive market coverage, like Mixue Group and Guming [16]

证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 供给收缩推动钨价创历史新高，出口修复预期锑价或底部反转 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属双周报（2025/11/17-2025/11/28） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险、下游需求不及预期风险、进出口政策变动风险等。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 稀土：供需双弱，氧化镨钕震荡反弹。近两周，氧化镨钕上涨 3.94%至 56.65 万元/ 吨，氧化镝下跌 1.99% ...

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Positive (Maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, has seen continuous price increases, with London spot gold rising by 2.95% to $4,191.05 per ounce and London spot silver increasing by 3.65% to $53.91 per ounce [5][10] - The recent price increases are attributed to several factors, including support for interest rate cuts from multiple Federal Reserve officials, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and potential military actions involving the U.S. and Venezuela [5][6] - The long-term outlook suggests that the combination of "interest rate cuts" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to catalyze demand for gold, with central bank purchases providing strong support for gold prices [5][6] Price Trends - In the past two weeks, London spot gold increased by 2.95% to $4,191.05 per ounce, while Shanghai gold rose by 0.08% to ¥953.92 per gram [10][14] - London spot silver rose by 3.65% to $53.91 per ounce, and Shanghai silver increased by 3.04% to ¥12,727 per kilogram [10][14] - Palladium and platinum also saw significant increases, with palladium up 4.55% to $1,448 per ounce and platinum up 7.05% to $1,640 per ounce [10][14] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report highlights the importance of upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP employment figures, which could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions [5][6] - The report notes that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, which may extend the current interest rate cut cycle [5][6] Holdings and Trading Volume - The report indicates a decrease in Shanghai gold holdings by 2.26% to 339,700 contracts, while Shanghai silver holdings increased by 2.89% to 785,000 contracts [10][14] Price Differentials and Basis - The report states that the gold price differential between domestic and international markets is -¥14.80 per gram, a decrease of ¥37.95 from two weeks ago [59] - The international gold basis (spot-futures) is reported at -$65.35 per ounce, down $52.05 from two weeks prior [65]