Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to the interplay of the 232 investigation and interest rate cut expectations, with recent price changes showing a mixed trend [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low inventory levels in supporting copper prices, while also noting the potential impact of the 232 copper import investigation and upcoming interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining for investment opportunities [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. employment data, which may influence market conditions [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Recent price movements show LME copper up by 0.25%, while SHFE copper is down by 0.24% [25]. - Inventory levels for copper have increased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.41%, with inventory levels also rising [35]. - The report notes a decrease in aluminum smelting profits, attributed to rising costs [35]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a slight increase, while zinc prices have decreased [48]. - Inventory levels for both metals are discussed, highlighting market supply conditions [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have decreased slightly, while nickel prices have shown an upward trend [62]. - The report discusses profitability metrics for nickel producers in both domestic and international markets [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have shown a slight rebound, with specific price changes noted for lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [74]. - The report indicates that supply-side adjustments are anticipated, which may affect future pricing [74]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased domestically due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may create supply constraints [86]. - The report highlights the profitability of domestic cobalt refining operations [86].

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 06 日 信用债 ETF 性价比几何？ ——信用债热点事件系列 投资要点： 目前，首批 10 只科创债 ETF 集中获批待上市，科创债 ETF 自身的稀缺性以及市场 对科创债自今年 5 月份主体扩容以来的高度关注，年初以来的信用债 ETF 快速扩容 的行情或有可能在科创债 ETF 上再度演绎，相关成分券的利差压缩空间或可期待。 结构性的机会上，我们建议投资者结合负债端属性以及交易风格，通过适度下沉和 拉长久期等方式提前布局成分券中的科创债，并抢配同为 8 只信用债 ETF 成分券的 非可续期科创债。 风险提示：1）数据来源和数据处理偏误风险：本文数据主要来自于同花顺 ifind 等， 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 1.基准做市信用债 ETF 快速扩容 今年年初以来持续的低利率环境下，信用债相比之下具有较高的板块贝塔，中等期限信 用债具有明显的静态票息优势，市场对信用债 ETF 的关注度明显提升。2025 年初以前，市 场上仅有 3 只信用债 ETF ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 06 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 邱达治 SAC：S1350525050001 qiudazhi@huayuanstock.com 夏季或高温少雨，煤炭去库有望延续 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——大能源行业 2025 年第 27 周周报（20250705） 投资要点： | 风险提示 | 19 | | --- | --- | | 4. | | 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 煤炭：预计夏季降水少气温高，电煤需求旺盛。据国家气候中心数据，2025 年上半 年同比 2024 年同期，我国中东部气温偏高，降水量整体小幅偏少。展望夏季，据国 家气候中心数据，预计长江上游岷江流域、中下游大部降水偏少，夏季水电出力或 同比下降，此外，考虑东部及南部沿海经济 ...

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 06 日 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 北证专精特新指数正式亮相，北证 50 指数上半年涨幅领跑全市场指数 证券分析师 ——北交所周观察第三十三期（20250706） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2025 年 6 月北证 50 指数涨幅 2.73%，上半年涨幅 39%远跑赢其他主要指数。2025 年 6 月，北证 50 指数（+2.73%），石油石化、传媒、交通运输等涨幅居前。2025 年 6 月共 有 31 家公司涨幅达到或超过 20%，其中九菱科技、同辉信息、远航精密、七丰精工、科 力股份、路桥信息和奔朗新材 7 家公司涨幅超 40%。2025 年上半年北证 50 指数涨幅 （+39%）远跑赢其他主要指数，除此之外科创 200、中证 2000 等指数 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural gas industry is "Positive" (first-time rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - Natural gas is recognized as a clean, low-carbon, and flexible fossil energy source, serving as a crucial bridge for energy transition. It is expected to support global energy transformation for an extended period [4][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shown significant achievements in supply-side development, with infrastructure construction accelerating. By the end of 2024, China's natural gas production is projected to reach 246.451 billion cubic meters, a 28% increase from 2020 [4][14] - The consumption growth rate of natural gas during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has slowed compared to the previous five years, but the price mechanism is gradually being rationalized. The apparent consumption of natural gas in China is expected to reach 426.05 billion cubic meters in 2024, an 8% year-on-year increase [4][36] - The report anticipates a continued downward trend in natural gas costs, with stable demand growth expected before 2030. The demand for LNG in the transportation sector is projected to reach 40-55 billion cubic meters by 2030 [4][14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Natural gas is positioned as a transitional energy source to achieve carbon peak goals by 2030, with a target of 15% of total energy consumption by that year [4][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes energy security, energy conservation, and carbon reduction, with a clear trend of increasing natural gas consumption in provincial plans [8] Supply and Infrastructure - Significant progress has been made in increasing domestic gas production, with a focus on conventional and unconventional gas sources. The total length of natural gas pipelines reached 126,000 kilometers by the end of 2023 [14][25] - By the end of 2024, 31 LNG receiving stations will be operational, with a total receiving capacity exceeding 15 million tons per year [25][26] Consumption Trends - The natural gas consumption structure includes urban gas, industrial fuel, power generation, and chemical use, with urban gas and industrial fuel maintaining stable proportions [36] - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical factors on gas prices, with a notable increase in the average import price of LNG in 2022 [4][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream exploration companies like Xin Natural Gas, integrated companies like ENN Energy and Jiufeng Energy, and downstream city gas companies such as China Resources Gas and Kunlun Energy [4]

证券研究报告|行业专题报告 海外 2025年7月4日 稳定币法案推动行业加速 看好发行平台、支付以及RWA场景 --加密行业专题报告 姓名：郑嘉伟 资格编号：S1350523120001 邮箱：zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 证券分析师 姓名：陆韵婷 资格编号：S1350525050002 邮箱：luyuntingn@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：郑冰倩 资格编号：S1350525040002 邮箱：zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：于炳麟 资格编号：S1350524060002 邮箱：yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 报告要点：看好发行平台、支付、RWA应用场景 n 稳定币法案推动合规机构扎堆发行 行业发展加速 Ø 稳定币作为连接传统金融与区块链经济的重要桥梁，已形成以USDT和USDC为代表的双寡头格局。USDT依托灵活监管，在线下支付、跨境 交易及OTC市场展现强大适用性，截至2025年3月，市占率高达62%；而USDC则凭借全额储备、 ...

证券研究报告 机械设备 | 轨交设备Ⅱ 北交所|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 04 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | 07 | 02 | | 日 | | | 月 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 17.00 | | | | | | | | 内 / 低 | 最 | 高 | | | | | | | 年 | 最 | | 一 | 20.80/4.44 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 2,323.90 | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 03 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年07月03日 华源晨会精粹 20250703 固定收益 社融有望同比多增——2025 年 6 月金融数据预测：核心预判：依据过往 信贷投放规律及行业观察等，我们预测 2025 年 6 月新增贷款 2.1 万亿元，社融 3.8 万亿元。6 月末，M2 达 329.2 万亿，YoY+7.9%；M1（新口径）YoY+2.5%；社融 增速 8.8%。我们预测 6 月份社融增量 3.8 万亿（2024 年 6 月社融增量 3.3 万亿）， 同比多增，多增主要来自政府债券及企业债券净融资。三季度利率债料窄幅震荡， 继续看多收益率 2%以上的长久期城投债及资本债。进入 7 月央行依然保持宽松，利 率债调整风险有限，只不过，债基久期及杠杆处于高位，我们预计利率债维持窄幅 震荡。利率债波段操作需要紧密跟踪央行资金面行为，一旦收紧，可能调整 10BP 左右。7 月理财规模预计大幅增长，继续看多长久期下沉的城投及资本债，看多城投 点心债及美元债，力推民生、渤海、恒丰银行永续债，关注保险次级债机会 ...

hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 03 日 投资评级： 看好（首次） 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 水泥 行业点评报告 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com "反内卷奏乐" ，周期"起舞" ——水泥行业"反内卷"点评 证券分析师 投资要点： 本报告署名分析师在此声明，本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格并注册为证券分析师，本报告表述的所有观点均准确反映 了本人对标的证券和发行人的个人看法。本人以勤勉的职业态度，专业审慎的研究方法，使用合法合规的信息，独立、客观的出具此报告，本 人所得报酬的任何部分不曾与、不与，也不将会与本报告中的具体投资意见或观点有直接或间接联系。 一般声明 华源证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company specializes in smart power measurement and control products, with a focus on digital products that meet the new demands of new infrastructure and renewable energy sectors [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 47.35% year-on-year [5]. - The company has established strong partnerships with well-known domestic and international enterprises, enhancing its market position [5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 320 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.76% [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 76 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.11% [5]. - The gross margin for power measurement and control products was 33.01% in 2024 [5]. Market Potential - The power monitoring industry is expected to experience significant growth due to the rapid development of new infrastructure and energy-saving sectors [5]. - The total electricity consumption in 2024 is projected to be 98,521 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [5]. - The company has entered the renewable energy sector by establishing a subsidiary focused on investment and operation of solar storage charging stations [5]. Product Development - The company has developed a series of products to meet the digitalization needs, with projects expected to reach operational status by 2026 [6]. - As of the end of 2024, the company holds 112 patents, including 25 invention patents [5][6]. - The company aims to enhance its product offerings in response to the increasing demand for smart power monitoring solutions [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 371 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.97% [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 32 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 26.20% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.20 yuan [8].