证券研究报告 非银金融 | 保险Ⅱ 金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 07 日 证券分析师 陆韵婷 SAC：S1350525050002 luyunting@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | 日 | 年 | 07 | | | | | | | 月 | 04 | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | 37.14 | | | | | | | | | 内 低 | 高 | | | | | | 最 | | 43.01/26.83 | | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 357,299.48 | | | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | | 357,299.48 | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | 9,6 ...

Fixed Income - The overall credit spread across various industries has compressed, with the AA agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experiencing a significant reduction of 9 basis points [2][9] - The issuance rates for AA-rated industrial bonds and AAA-rated financial bonds have decreased significantly, while the issuance rate for AA-rated urban investment bonds has increased [7] - The market is optimistic about credit bonds yielding over 2%, suggesting investors should consider extending duration and exploring opportunities in the newly approved science and technology innovation bond ETFs [10] Maternal and Infant Industry - Recent government policies aimed at encouraging childbirth, such as childcare subsidies and housing benefits, are expected to stimulate the maternal and infant industry [12] - The maternal and infant consumption market in China is projected to reach 762.99 billion yuan in 2024, with a steady growth trend from 2018 to 2024 [12] - The market for maternal and infant chain stores is growing, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.1% expected from 2019 to 2024, indicating significant room for growth in lower-tier cities [12][13] Transportation Industry - The Southeast Asian e-commerce sector, particularly TikTok Shop, has shown substantial growth, benefiting logistics companies in the region [16][17] - The civil aviation sector is entering a peak travel season, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 21.01 million in the first month of the summer travel period [19] - The introduction of autonomous delivery vehicles by companies like Shentong and JD Logistics is expected to enhance delivery efficiency and reduce costs significantly [18][29] Deep Sea Economy - The deep-sea economy is gaining attention, with the national marine production value projected to reach 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024, growing at a rate of 5.9% [34] - The marine engineering equipment manufacturing sector is experiencing rapid growth, with an expected increase in value added from 1,032 billion yuan in 2024 to 1,126 billion yuan in 2025 [34] - There are 11 companies listed on the North Exchange involved in the deep-sea economy, indicating a growing interest in this sector [34][35] AI Applications - The AI companionship product "EVE" has begun testing, highlighting the advancement of AI applications in various sectors such as e-commerce, gaming, and education [12] - Major tech companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance are continuously iterating on foundational technologies and products, indicating a competitive landscape in AI development [12] Shipping and Logistics - The shipping industry is expected to benefit from OPEC+'s production increase, which may enhance the demand for oil transportation [23][31] - The logistics sector is seeing a shift towards more efficient operations, with companies like Shenzhen International and DeBang Logistics poised for growth due to strategic transformations [30] - The overall shipping market is recovering, with environmental regulations driving the retirement of older vessels, thus improving market conditions [31][32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pig price has retreated from its high, with the latest price at 14.94 CNY/kg and the average weight at 128.64 kg. The complete cost for leading enterprises has decreased to around 12 CNY/kg, indicating a potential for profit maintenance and valuation recovery [6][17][18] - The report emphasizes a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [18] - The report recommends focusing on companies with a "platform + ecosystem" model, highlighting DeKang Agriculture and Livestock as a representative, along with leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [18] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is 14.94 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in average weight to 128.64 kg. The price of 15 kg piglets remains stable at around 530 CNY/head. The industry is experiencing a short-term rebound in prices after a slight decline [6][17] - The official number of breeding sows in May was 40.42 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.15%, indicating a stable production capacity [7][17] - The report suggests that the government's commitment to stabilizing pig prices is strong, and capacity regulation may continue to increase [7][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent stock chicks remains high, with the latest price at 47.93 CNY, a week-on-week increase of 5.25%. The price of broilers is 2.95 CNY/kg, down 12% week-on-week and 18% year-on-year [19] - The industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, leading to a reduction in production capacity among breeding farms [19] - The report highlights two main lines of focus: quality imported breeding stock leaders and fully integrated industry leaders [19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Hai Da Group, noting a cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The demand for aquaculture feed is expected to recover in 2025 [20][22] - The report indicates that the domestic capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [21][22] 4. Pet Industry - The report discusses the impact of potential tariffs on the pet industry, suggesting that the actual impact will be limited due to high profit margins and overseas factory layouts [23] - Companies with strong performance in their own brands, such as Guibao and Zhongchong, are highlighted as key focuses [23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight reduction in soybean planting area for 2025, with a forecast of 83.4 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [24] - The report emphasizes that agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, and a reduction in imports may help prices rise from low levels [24] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3982 points, up 1.54% from the previous week. The Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2729 points, up 2.55% [25][28] - The report notes that the aquaculture sector performed the best with a 5.13% increase [25]

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 07 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | 07 | 月 | | 07 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 6.12 | | | | 一 年 内 高 最 低 | 最 | / | | | | 7.43/3.38 | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 6,612.98 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 6,612.42 | | | | 总股 ...

证券研究报告 生育政策密集出台或将刺激行业发展，关注北交所母婴行业相关标的 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第二十一期（20250706） 投资要点： | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 07 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 政策出台有望鼓励生育，或将刺激母婴行业发展。国务院、各地政府出台育儿补贴、购房优 惠等政策，有望刺激母婴行业的发展。根据国家统计局，2024 年中国出生人口 954 万，为 2017 年以来首次回升，而根据艾媒咨询数据，2018-2024 年中国母婴消费市场规模稳步上升， 2024 年达 76299 亿元。中国乳制品行业规模不断扩大，但奶类产量 2024 年有所下降，根据 南方乳业招股书、灼识咨询数据，2024 年中国乳制品规模约 5216.70 亿元，预计 2026 年达 5966.60 亿元。中国婴幼儿辅食市 ...

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the high-quality development of the marine economy, with the national marine GDP expected to reach 11.18 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in 2024 [4][11][20] - The marine economy's contribution to the national GDP is projected to be 7.8%, with 15 marine industries achieving a total added value of 4.3733 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 7.5% [21][22] - The deep-sea technology sector is identified as a key area for development, with significant investments and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing capabilities in underwater observation, construction, and resource extraction [9][30][31] Group 2 - The report identifies 11 companies within the deep-sea economic industry chain listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, including Audiwei (ultrasonic underwater ranging sensors), Wantong Hydraulic (hydraulic cylinders for offshore drilling platforms), and Klete (ventilation and air treatment systems) [40] - The marine engineering equipment manufacturing industry in China is experiencing a recovery, with an expected added value of 112.6 billion yuan in 2025, following a growth of 9.1% to 103.2 billion yuan in 2024 [30][33] - The report highlights the increasing market interest in deep-sea technology, with emerging sectors such as deep-sea energy storage and carbon sequestration expected to drive future growth [31][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the strong growth in Southeast Asia's e-commerce logistics, particularly benefiting from TikTok Shop's significant GMV growth in Q2 2025, with increases of 93% in Thailand, 145% in Indonesia, 191% in Vietnam, 245% in the Philippines, 211% in Malaysia, and 30% in Singapore [4] - The report notes that the civil aviation sector is entering a peak travel season, with over 21.01 million domestic flight tickets booked in the first month of the summer travel period, indicating a 5.2% increase in flight numbers compared to the previous year [6][7] - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand resilience in the express delivery sector, with major players like SF Express and JD Logistics expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [15] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - TikTok Shop's Q2 2025 GMV growth indicates a robust demand for Southeast Asian express delivery services, with Jitu's market share reaching 28.6% [4] - Shentong plans to deploy 2,000 unmanned vehicles in 2025 to enhance delivery capabilities [5] - JD Logistics has launched a self-developed VAN unmanned light truck, which can save approximately 60% in costs compared to traditional transport [5] Civil Aviation - The civil aviation sector is experiencing a peak in passenger flow, with a significant increase in ticket bookings and expected price hikes for popular routes [6] - The Civil Aviation Administration has established a leadership group to promote the development of general aviation and low-altitude economy [7] - The resumption of aircraft engine exports from the US to China signals a thaw in trade tensions [7] Shipping and Ports - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, aiming to regain market share [8] - China Shipbuilding's merger with China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry has been approved, indicating consolidation in the industry [9] - The Shanghai export container freight index has decreased by 5.3%, while oil tanker freight rates have also declined [10][11] Road and Rail - The report notes a slight decrease in toll revenue for Shenzhen Expressway in May, while the overall logistics operations remain stable [14] - National railway freight transport has shown a slight increase, indicating steady logistics performance [14] Overall Market Performance - The A-share transportation index decreased by 0.33% during the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.40% [20] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of various sub-sectors, highlighting the performance of express delivery, aviation, shipping, and logistics [22][25][49][55]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 07 日 高票息信用债行情兑现 ——信用分析周报（2025/6/30-2025/7/4） 投资要点： 本周（6/30-7/4）市场概览： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 3）负面舆情。主体负面：本周潍坊公信国有资产经营有限公司、联储证券股份有限 公司、登封市建设投资集团有限公司、聊城市安泰城乡投资开发有限责任公司列入 主体观察名单；黑龙江创达集团有限公司主体评级调低。债项负面：中燃投资有限 公司所发行的 10 只银行间债项隐含评级调低；康佳集团股份有限公司所发行的 6 只 公司债隐含评级调低；其他债项负面包括"融茂优 B"隐含评级调低，"H20 方圆 1" 展期，"23 创 01EB"债项评级调低，"23 联储一"列入债项观察名单。转债负面： 双良节能系统股份有限公司主体评级调低，其所发行的"双良转债"债项评级调低。 本周市场分析：本周公开市场共有 20275 亿元逆回购到期，本周央行累计开展 6522 亿元逆回购操作，实现全周净回笼 13753 亿 ...

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 06 日 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： "HDAC+IO"潜力值得期待，重视微芯生物 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（25/6/30-25/7/4） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 联系人 本周医药市场表现分析：6 月 30 日至 7 月 4 日，医药指数上涨 3.64%，相对沪深 300 指数超 额收益为 2.10%。本周，涨幅靠前的主要为创新药标的如塞力医疗、广生堂、神州细胞、热 景生物，核心因素为临床数据更新催化，我们认为 6 月下旬以来创新药板块的调整已到位， 继续看好创新药，关注下半年有 BD 强催化的核心标的。建议关注：1）创新药作为较为确定 的产业趋势，建议关注：A 股）热景生物、华纳药厂、微芯生物、悦康药业、前沿生物、福元 医药、信立泰、一品红、科兴制药、泽璟制药、科伦药业、恒瑞医药；港股）三生制药、中 国生物制药、科伦博泰、康方生物、信达生物、翰森制药；2）25 年业绩或逐季度边 ...

证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 06 日 证券分析师 板块表现： 锑价受需求影响持续探底，钨价受供给扰动维持高位 稀土：国内价格震荡，部分磁材厂拿到出口审批等待价格突破。近两周，氧化镨钕 上涨 0.45%至 44.6 万元/吨，氧化镝上涨 0.61%至 164 万元/吨，氧化铽下跌 0.42% 至 712 万元/吨。受 4 月 4 日中国限制 7 种中重稀土相关产品出口影响，5 月海外氧 化镝、氧化铽暴涨，海外缺货大涨而国内涨价相对一般主要受出口限制影响导致国 内外两市场割裂导致。6 月中国商务部宣布加快稀土出口审批流程，以缓解全球供应 链紧张局势，截至目前部分企业已陆续获得出口许可证。供给端，低价矿端收紧， 需求端，终端磁材订单恢复较弱刚需采购为主，短期价格维持震荡格局。后续可关 注：1）稀土总量控制意见稿落地时间；2）稀土配额；3）缅甸稀土矿进口。稀土作 为高胜率板块，中重稀土弹性更大。建议关注：广晟有色、中国稀土、北方稀土、 金力永磁、宁波韵升、正海磁材等。 联系人 钼：供给端收缩预期叠加需求承压，钼价高位调整。近两周，钼精矿价格下跌 0.78% 至 ...