Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profit elasticity, and creating favorable competition opportunities in the medium to long term [15] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in the oil transportation market's outlook for Q4 2025 [15] - The shipping market is anticipated to recover, supported by environmental regulations limiting the operation of older fleets and the upcoming production of the West Manganese iron ore by the end of 2025 [15] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In October 2025, the express delivery industry achieved a business volume of 17.6 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with revenue reaching 131.67 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year [4][24] - Major players like YTO, Shentong, and Yunda showed varied growth rates, with YTO's volume increasing by 12.78% and Shentong by 3.97%, while Yunda's volume decreased by 5.11% [4][30] - The industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, with significant improvements in single-ticket revenue due to price increases driven by the de-involution trend [4] Shipping and Ports - VLCC freight rates reached a new high of $136,843 per day, the highest since Q2 2020, driven by tight available capacity and stable inquiry rhythms [8] - The Capesize bulk carrier spot freight rates surpassed $30,000 per day, reflecting a 20% increase over the past week, supported by seasonal demand recovery and strong import demand from China [8] - The BDI index increased by 7.1% to 2225 points, indicating a robust recovery in the bulk shipping market [9] Aviation - In October 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 68 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and cargo/mail transport reached 917,000 tons, up 13.3% [58] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 86.88%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [62] Road and Rail - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight reaching 81.8 million tons, a 0.17% increase week-on-week [14] - In October 2025, road freight volume was 3.706 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.08% [64] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics landscape is evolving, with companies like Shenzhen International expected to benefit from the transformation of logistics parks, providing performance elasticity [15] - The industry is witnessing a slowdown in competition, with companies like Debang and Aneng Logistics showing significant profit improvements due to strategic transformations [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The "troika" of consumption, investment, and net - exports supporting GDP is under increasing pressure in October, and short - term economic growth may face certain challenges. However, considering the good economic performance in the first three quarters of this year, it is not difficult to achieve the 5% economic growth target for the year 2025. In the next six months, policy rate cuts and the implementation of incremental tools may be the key support measures. Future supportive policies may be more inclined to stimulate consumption. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Consumption - In October, the growth rate of consumption continued to decline. The total retail sales of consumer goods in October was 4.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the growth rate has declined for five consecutive months. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous period [2]. - Service consumption showed continuous strength. In October, catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year, 2.9 percentage points higher than September. Policies such as "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption" and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" emphasized the expansion of service consumption [2]. - The year - on - year growth rate of most retail sales of categories related to national subsidies continued to slow down. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment above the designated size dropped significantly by 17.9 percentage points to - 14.6% [2]. 3.2 Investment - Fixed - asset investment has been weak for seven consecutive months, with negative year - on - year growth for two consecutive months and accelerating decline. From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment reached their lowest values since 2022, with year - on - year decreases of - 0.1%, + 2.7%, and - 14.7% respectively [2]. - The decline in real estate development investment has been expanding for eight consecutive months, reaching the second - lowest value since 1995, indicating that the traditional "real estate + infrastructure" driven model is unsustainable [2]. 3.3 Foreign Trade - In the first 10 months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 37.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [3]. - In October, the year - on - year exports of major industries (in US dollars) declined significantly compared with the previous month. Exports to the EU decreased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 0.9% in October, a significant drop of 13.3 percentage points from the previous month [3]. 3.4 Industrial and Service Sectors - From January to October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year. In October, it increased by 4.9% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained high growth rates, with year - on - year increases of 7.2% and 8.0% respectively in October [3]. - In October, the service production index increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage points lower than the previous month [3]. 3.5 Economic Outlook and Bond Market - Economic downward pressure may increase. The "troika" supporting the economy is under pressure, and the conditions for further policy rate cuts may have been initially met [3]. - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in November, predicting that the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to around 1.65% within the year [3].

Group 1: Construction Industry Overview - The construction industry is currently under pressure, with revenue and profit expected to improve in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to increased funding and project commencement [2][5] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the construction sector achieved revenue of 5.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.51%, and a net profit of 123.9 billion yuan, down 10.06% [6][8] - The overall gross margin for the construction sector in 2025 Q1-3 was 9.91%, with a net margin of 2.61%, reflecting a slight decline compared to the previous year [6][7] Group 2: Central Enterprises Performance - Nine major state-owned construction enterprises accounted for 83.45% of the sector's revenue and 83.99% of net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating their dominant role in the industry [8] - Excluding state-owned enterprises, the sector's revenue decline deepened to -12.37%, while the net profit decline narrowed to -5.48%, highlighting the stabilizing effect of state-owned enterprises on revenue [8][9] - The new contracts signed by state-owned enterprises in 2025 Q1-3 totaled approximately 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 1.31% [8] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation stocks in a context of loose liquidity and low interest rates, recommending companies like Jianghe Group and Sichuan Road & Bridge [9] - It also emphasizes the importance of companies that are clearly transitioning towards new energy, smart manufacturing, and digital construction, indicating a growth potential in these areas [9] Group 4: OSL Group Overview - OSL Group is a licensed digital asset trading and payment platform, recognized as the first major virtual asset trading platform in Hong Kong [12][13] - The company has developed a digital asset ecosystem comprising brokerage, payment, asset management, exchange, and institutional services, with significant revenue contributions from brokerage and payment services [13][14] - OSL is transitioning from a single trading platform to a comprehensive digital asset financial infrastructure provider, with advantages in payment services and a robust global compliance network [14][15] Group 5: Market Opportunities for OSL - The digital asset industry is expected to benefit from a shift in monetary policy, clearer global regulatory frameworks, and the entry of institutional funds, presenting growth opportunities for OSL [13][14] - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with projected non-IFRS revenues of 467 million, 764 million, and 1.22 billion HKD for 2025-2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 89% [15]

行业评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 医药生物 2025年11月20日 --结直肠癌早筛龙头，更多大单品即将兑现 证券分析师 姓名：刘闯 资格编号：S1350524030002 邮箱：liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 联系人 姓名：梁裕 邮箱：liangyu@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 报告要点 ◼ 结直肠癌早筛龙头，向肿瘤筛查平台转型。精密科学为美国结直肠癌早筛龙头，公司成立初期便致力于开发结直肠癌早筛产品，旗下拥有首个在美国实现商业化的 mt-sDNA结直肠癌筛查产品Cologuard。目前收入主要由筛查业务（以Cologuard为核心）、精准肿瘤检测（以Oncotype Dx系列为核心）两部分构成，2025Q1-3实现 收入20.5亿美元，同比增长16%。目前暂未实现净利润层面盈利，但FCF已处于持续转正态势，2025Q1-3调整后EBITDA利润率为14%，并有望在2027年超过20%，利润 有望加速兑现。 ◼ 结直肠癌早筛：公司基本盘，保持稳健增长，血检有望贡献弹性 1 • 结直肠早筛行业：结直肠疾病进展期长，早期发 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Buy" for OSL Group, marking its first coverage [5][10]. Core Insights - OSL Group is a licensed digital asset trading and payment platform, uniquely positioned as Hong Kong's only publicly listed virtual asset exchange focused on digital asset trading and payment services. The company has obtained multiple important licenses across over 10 jurisdictions, including Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, the EU (Italy), and Bermuda [5][6]. - The company is transitioning from a single trading platform to a comprehensive digital asset financial infrastructure provider, leveraging four key advantages: the rise of payment services, significant trading fee advantages, a global compliance network, and a triad of compliance, security, and liquidity [7][68]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of November 19, 2025, OSL Group's closing price is HKD 15.03, with a market capitalization of HKD 11,942.77 million. The stock has seen a one-year high of HKD 20.30 and a low of HKD 6.84 [3]. Business Overview - OSL Group has developed a digital asset ecosystem comprising brokerage, payment, asset management, exchange, and institutional services. The brokerage business contributes approximately half of the revenue, while the payment business, launched only two months prior, accounted for 29% of the revenue in the first half of 2025 [6][8]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts non-IFRS revenues for OSL Group to be HKD 4.67 billion, HKD 7.64 billion, and HKD 12.20 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 119%, 64%, and 60% [8][10]. Strategic Initiatives - OSL is expanding its payment services, with OSL Pay generating significant revenue shortly after its launch. The company is also pursuing acquisitions to enhance its service offerings and expand its operational capabilities [39][69]. Competitive Positioning - OSL Group's fee structure is competitive, with trading fees ranging from 0% to 0.05%, and no deposit fees, positioning it favorably against other major platforms [73]. Regulatory Environment - The report highlights a favorable regulatory landscape for digital assets, with significant developments in compliance frameworks across various jurisdictions, enhancing the stability and credibility of the digital asset market [61][62]. Growth Drivers - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the establishment of clear regulatory frameworks are expected to drive growth in the digital asset sector, benefiting OSL Group as it captures institutional interest and expands its market presence [58][66].

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 20 日 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 张一帆 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 图表 1：2016-2024 年地方政府债务限额（亿元） 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 zhangyifan@huayuanstock.com 地方政府债限额、发行节奏及利差有何特征？ 地方政府债发行节奏从早期集中于二、三季度，逐步转向全年均衡分布。在 2015 至 2018 年前后，发行量高度集中于二三季度，这主要系当时我国预算审批与下达多 集中在年初，地方政府在获得新增债务限额后，需要时间进行项目准备、招标等前 期工作，导致大量债券实际发行窗口后移至年中，形成"上半年忙审批，下半年忙 发行"的格局。然而，自 2019 年起，特别是 2020 年之后，这一模式发生显著变化， 一季度和四季度的发行规模占比大幅提升。其原因或系政策层面强调"靠前发力" 和"均衡发行"，通过提前下达部分次年债务限额，使得地方能在一季度尽早启动 发行，及时形成实物 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of Q3 2025, the total balance of insurance companies' funds under management reached 37.46 trillion yuan, a 3.39% increase from Q2 2025. Among them, life insurance companies' funds under management were 33.73 trillion yuan, and property insurance companies' were 2.39 trillion yuan, growing by 3.45% and 1.75% respectively compared to Q2 2025 [2]. - In Q3 2025, the growth of bond investments slowed slightly. The balance of insurance - fund bond investments was 18.18 trillion yuan, with a single - quarter increase of 0.31 trillion yuan in Q3, less than the 0.88 trillion yuan in Q3 2024. However, the actual increase in bond investments in Q3 2025 might be higher if the impact of fair - value changes is excluded. Meanwhile, investments in stocks, securities investment funds, long - term equity investments, and other investments increased year - on - year, while bank deposit investments decreased by 0.16 trillion yuan [2]. - As of Q3 2025, the book balance of insurance funds' stock holdings increased significantly, mainly driven by the strong performance of the stock market in the third quarter. The balance of insurance - fund stock investments was 3.62 trillion yuan, a 49.14% increase from the end of 2024, with a 18% increase in the third quarter, basically in line with the 17.9% increase of the CSI 300 Index [2]. - The proportion of bond investments in property insurance companies increased slightly quarter - on - quarter, while that in life insurance companies decreased. As of Q3 2025, in life insurance companies, the proportion of bond investments decreased by 0.88 pct to 51.02%, and in property insurance companies, it increased by 0.33 pct to 40.62% [2]. - The driving force for insurance - fund bond investments weakened in Q3 2025, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 20.95%. The reason might be the slowdown in premium growth due to the significant reduction in insurance interest rates, the focus on dividend - insurance products, and the approaching end of the peak of non - standard investment maturities, which led to a weakened demand for ultra - long bonds [2]. - As of Q3 2025, insurance institutions' main bond investment varieties were interest - rate bonds, followed by financial bonds and medium - term notes. Insurance institutions preferred interest - rate bonds, with interest - rate bonds accounting for 75.78% of their bond investments [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Insurance Companies' Funds Under Management and Asset Allocation - As of Q3 2025, the total balance of insurance companies' funds under management was 37.46 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies at 33.73 trillion yuan and property insurance companies at 2.39 trillion yuan, showing different growth rates compared to Q2 2025 [2]. - The allocation of insurance funds included bank deposits (7.64%), bonds (48.52%), stocks (9.67%), securities investment funds (5.26%), and long - term equity investments (7.59%) [2]. Bond Investments - In Q3 2025, the balance of insurance - fund bond investments was 18.18 trillion yuan, with a single - quarter increase of 0.31 trillion yuan, less than in Q3 2024. The year - on - year growth rate dropped to 20.95% from the previous high level, mainly due to factors such as slowdown in premium growth and weakened demand for ultra - long bonds [2]. - Insurance institutions preferred interest - rate bonds, with interest - rate bonds accounting for 75.78% of their bond investments as of Q3 2025. The total bond custody of insurance institutions was 5.25 trillion yuan, but the custody data did not include asset - management products held by insurance institutions [2][3]. Stock Investments - As of Q3 2025, the balance of insurance - fund stock investments was 3.62 trillion yuan, a 49.14% increase from the end of 2024. The increase in the third quarter was 18%, in line with the performance of the CSI 300 Index, indicating that the growth was driven by the stock - market performance [2]. Asset Allocation Changes in Life and Property Insurance Companies - In life insurance companies, the proportion of bond investments decreased by 0.88 pct to 51.02%, while the proportion of stock investments increased by 1.30 pct to 10.12% as of Q3 2025 [2]. - In property insurance companies, the proportion of bond investments increased by 0.33 pct to 40.62%, and the proportion of stock investments increased by 0.41 pct to 8.74% as of Q3 2025 [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing high growth in Q3 2025, driven by its layout in new energy products, upgrades in intelligent manufacturing, and global capacity expansion [4][6] - The automotive hose market is expected to grow to 25.909 billion yuan by 2025, with new materials like nylon likely to replace traditional rubber due to lightweight trends [6] - The company has established a nylon pipe production line to meet the lightweight demands of new energy vehicles and is expanding its production capacity for air conditioning pipes [6] - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through automation and AI technology in production processes, aiming to improve efficiency and reduce costs [6] - The company has a strong market position, being the top seller of hydraulic brake rubber hoses in China, and is expanding its customer base to include high-end and new energy vehicle manufacturers [6] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected to be 1.149 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.01% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 106 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 64.93% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.08 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.94 [5][7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.99% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [3][47]. Core Views - The pharmaceutical index increased by 3.29% from November 10 to November 14, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.37%. The report suggests focusing on core innovative drug assets and companies with clear performance trends [4][17]. - Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals is highlighted for its strong pipeline in RNAi therapies, particularly its TRiM platform, which targets various diseases and has shown significant stock price appreciation [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing transformation in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, with a shift towards innovation and international expansion, driven by aging demographics and increasing healthcare demands [35][36]. Summary by Sections Arrowhead Pipeline Progress - Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals has a robust pipeline focusing on targeted siRNA drugs, with significant advancements in cardiovascular and neurological diseases. The stock price has surged by 313% since its lowest point in 2025 [7][8]. - Key products include Plozasiran, which is expected to significantly reduce triglyceride levels and is pending FDA approval [12][13]. Industry Perspective - The report underscores the importance of innovative drugs as a primary investment theme for the year, with a focus on manufacturing, international expansion, and aging consumer demographics [17][35]. - The pharmaceutical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 22.09%, indicating strong market performance [17][24]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks include innovative drug companies such as Xinyi Tai, Sanofi, and China Biopharmaceuticals, as well as companies in the medical device sector like Mindray and United Imaging [39][36]. - The report also highlights the potential for growth in sectors related to aging populations and outpatient consumption, recommending companies like Kunming Pharmaceutical and Yuyue Medical [38][36].