证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 宏观催化叠加国内大幅去库，铜价突破上行 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/12/1-2025/12/5） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：宏观催化叠加国内大幅去库，铜价突破上行。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为 +5.74%/+6.12%/+3.33%。宏观方面，特朗普拟提名鸽派人选哈塞特任美联储主席，以及 ADP 就业数据低于预期等催化下，美联储 12 月降息预期升温，铜价突破上 ...

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 07 日 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 ZG006 再次表现出亮眼数据，继续重点推荐泽璟制药 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（25/12/1-25/12/5） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 联系人 板块表现： 本周医药市场表现分析：12 月 01 日至 12 月 05 日，医药指数下跌 0.74%，相对沪深 300 指 数超额收益为-2.02%。近期创新药持续横盘震荡，12 月份行业基本面相对平稳，个股催化事 件为主。展望 2026 年上半年，创新药催化事件较多，且板块调整充分，有望迎来一波估值修 复。当前位置，我们建议精选创新药核心资产，看好未来股价走出新高度，同时建议配置业 绩趋势明确和 26 年经营有望反转的个股。1）创新药重点关注，A 股）信立泰、泽璟制药、 热景生物、科伦药业、上海谊众、康弘药业、华纳药厂、前沿生物、福元医药、昂利康、一 品红、恒瑞医药；港股）三生制药、 ...

证券研究报告|北交所专题报告 2025年12月5日 五载风劲，掘"稀"向"新" —北交所2026年度投资策略 证券分析师 姓名：赵昊 资格编号：S1350524110004 邮箱：zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：万枭 资格编号：S1350524100001 邮箱：wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：王宇璇 资格编号：S1350525050003 邮箱：wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 1 报告要点 n 总结2025年："十四五"收官，四秩筑基 Ø 成果来看，2025年作为"十四五"规划收官之年，北交所市场迎来多重突破，总市值突破8200亿元，开户数达950万户，日均成交额迈向300亿元，流动性实现质 的飞跃。市场"专精特新"特色更加鲜明，国家级"小巨人"占比达61%，已培育一批高成长、稀缺性企业，在新能源、机器人、AI等产业链构建优质企业矩阵。 企业质量持续提升，新上市企业2024年归母净利润均值实现三年稳步增长，从0.3亿元提升至1.1亿元。2025年前三季度，北交所营收/归 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [5][11]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a "hidden champion" in high-end glass materials, with its semiconductor substrates and electronic cloth fibers expected to create a second growth curve. The glass materials business is expanding, and the basic performance is likely to recover, driving growth elasticity. The optical glass business has seen revenue growth and improved gross margins since 2024, although the specialty glass segment faces short-term pressure due to the end of major customer orders and delays in onboarding new clients. Increased R&D investment and strategic partnerships are expected to enhance collaboration in the semiconductor field, indicating a potential operational turning point [5][9][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has over a decade of experience in the optical glass industry, with core technologies in glass formulation, melting, testing, and production line design. It has expanded its product offerings to include optical glass, specialty functional glass, and semiconductor application glass [19][20]. 2. Market Performance - The global market for nano-microcrystalline glass is projected to grow at a CAGR of 30% from 2024 to 2029, driven by the rapid increase in Android smartphone shipments. The company is positioned to benefit from this trend as one of the few manufacturers capable of mass production [6][34]. 3. Growth Opportunities - The company is strategically expanding into semiconductor glass substrates and electronic cloth fibers, which are critical materials for advanced semiconductor packaging. The domestic market is expected to see significant growth opportunities as local companies accelerate their production capabilities [7][8][13]. 4. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 44 million, 133 million, and 207 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 127, 42, and 27 times. The company is considered a leader in high-end glass materials in China, with growth potential in new business areas [9][11][12]. 5. Industry Trends - The optical glass industry is experiencing a shift towards high-end products and domestic substitution, with the company positioned among the top tier of domestic manufacturers. The demand for optical glass is expected to rise due to advancements in consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and security monitoring [37][41].

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 04 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月04日 华源晨会精粹 20251204 固定收益 关注大幅调整后的长债配置价值——12 月债市投资策略：近日，超长债表 现格外疲软，类似非银卖出踩踏。债市供给问题较为突出。未来超长债存在供求失 衡的压力，问题的解决建议从供需两端发力。当前，政策利率进一步下调的条件或 已具备。年末债市行情可期。债市走势可能阶段性与基本面脱钩，但无法长期脱钩。 10Y 以内政府债券看银行自营，30Y 看险资配置及交易盘，5Y 资本债看债基，3Y 以下信用债看银行理财。当前，长债收益率来到年内高点，经济下行压力上升，做 多的胜率较高，耐心等待政策利率下调。银行负债成本较快下行，A 股上市银行整 体 25Q3 单季度计息负债成本率已降至 1.63%，政府债券配置价值凸显，信贷需求 较弱，有望支撑银行大幅增加债券投资。此外，理财规模增长较快，且理财债券持 仓比例较低，有望对 3Y 以内信用债构成支撑。 风险提示：出口可能超预期，导致债市调整；理财及债基等监管及税收政策可能超 预期，带来债市冲击 ...

证券研究报告 建筑材料 | 玻璃玻纤 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 04 日 证券分析师 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | | | | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 01 | 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | 15.74 | | | | 一 年 内 / | 最 | 高 | 最 | 低 | | | | 17.58/10.70 | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 63,009.37 | | | | 流通市值（ ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant adjustment in the long-term bond allocation value, particularly noting the weak performance of ultra-long bonds and the systemic reduction in duration by broker proprietary trading and bond funds due to limited capital gains expectations [1][2] - Since 2018, the net issuance of government bonds has rapidly increased from 4.77 trillion to approximately 13.35 trillion by December 2, 2025, with an expected net issuance of around 13.8 trillion for 2025, indicating a substantial increase in bond supply [1][2] - The report indicates a supply-demand imbalance for ultra-long bonds, with the annual issuance of interest rate bonds with a maturity of 20 years or more increasing from 1.96 trillion in 2021 to 5.28 trillion by December 2, 2025, leading to increased duration pressure on bank proprietary bond investments [1][2] Group 2 - Recommendations for addressing the ultra-long bond issues include controlling the issuance duration of government bonds and exploring the issuance of floating rate bonds to mitigate interest rate risk for banks [1][2] - The report suggests that the central bank should increase its own allocation of ultra-long bonds and encourage insurance funds to enhance their allocation to reduce the asset-liability duration gap [1][2] - The report notes that the conditions for further policy interest rate cuts may be in place, as the overall cost of interest-bearing liabilities for banks has decreased significantly, supporting the potential for lower LPR and policy rates [2]

Group 1: North Exchange IPO Insights - In the first 11 months of 2025, 23 companies completed their IPOs on the North Exchange, raising a total of 6.7 billion yuan, surpassing the total fundraising of 2024 [2][6] - The average first-day increase for new stocks in November was 471%, with a notable contribution from Dapeng Industrial, which saw a first-day increase of over 12 times [2][7] - The average online subscription amount reached 6.469 billion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, indicating increasing competition and a decline in the average winning rate to 0.038% [7][8] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Developments - The real estate sector saw a 0.7% increase, with new home transactions in 42 key cities rising by 9.8% week-on-week, totaling 206 million square meters [9][10] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is promoting the pilot program for commercial real estate REITs to enhance investment tools and support new real estate development models [10][11] - Various cities are implementing policies to stimulate the housing market, such as increasing housing provident fund loan limits and enhancing supply chain management [11][12] Group 3: Ninebot Company Analysis - Ninebot is a leading global player in smart short-distance transportation and service robots, with a revenue of 11.74 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 76.1% [14][15] - The company has a strong competitive advantage due to its technological expertise and established overseas brand channels, particularly after acquiring Segway in 2015 [15][16] - The main business segments include high-end electric two-wheelers and a recovering revenue stream from B2B and self-branded scooters, with significant growth expected in new product categories like all-terrain vehicles and robotic lawn mowers [16][17]

IPO Performance - In November 2025, the average first-day return for new stocks was 471%, showing an increase from previous months[24] - The average first-day return for IPOs in the first 11 months of 2025 reached 356%, significantly higher than in 2024[25] Fundraising and Market Activity - A total of 23 companies completed their IPOs in the first 11 months of 2025, raising 6.7 billion yuan, surpassing the total for 2024[2] - In November, 5 companies went public, raising 980 million yuan, maintaining a rapid IPO pace[19] Subscription Trends - The average subscription amount for new shares in November was 711.2 billion yuan, reflecting strong market interest[32] - The average subscription limit for accounts in the first 11 months of 2025 increased to 12.28 million yuan, significantly higher than 8.07 million yuan in 2023 and 8.43 million yuan in 2024[36] Company Quality - The average revenue for newly listed companies in 2025 was 800 million yuan, with an average net profit of 110 million yuan, indicating improved company quality[41] - The average gross margin for new IPOs in 2025 was 34%, up from previous years[40] Market Risks - Risks include potential changes in IPO review policies and market enthusiasm for new stock subscriptions[2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report emphasizes that real estate is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, and stabilizing housing prices is significant for facilitating economic circulation. The policy environment is expected to strengthen further, promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector [4][41] - The report highlights the potential for a wave of development in high-quality residential properties due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure. Additionally, the sentiment in the Hong Kong private residential market is gradually recovering, indicating a new round of value reassessment for Hong Kong developers [4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.6%, the ChiNext Index by 4.5%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.6%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 0.7% during the week [4][7] - The top five stocks in terms of growth were Wantong Development (+19.3%), *ST Nan Zhi (+12.6%), Xinhua Group (+10.5%), Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (+9.7%), and Tianbao Infrastructure (+9.2%). The bottom five were Huaxia Happiness (-14.9%), Jingji Zhino (-14.8%), Vanke A (-11.2%), Hefei Urban Construction (-9.8%), and Jindi Group (-6.2%) [4][7] New Housing Transactions - In the week of November 22-28, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.06 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 9.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 51.1% [11] - For November (up to the week of November 28), new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 7.24 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 0.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 43.1% [15] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of November 22-28, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 202,000 square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 0.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% [26] - For November (up to the week of November 28), second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 8 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 27.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.2% [31] Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced a draft for the pilot program of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to promote high-quality development in the REITs market and support the construction of a new model for real estate development [2][41] - Various local governments are implementing policies to enhance housing affordability and stimulate the real estate market, such as increasing the loan limits for purchasing high-quality residential properties in cities like Xuzhou and Changzhou [41] Company Announcements - Notable financing activities include China Merchants Shekou issuing bonds up to 5.04 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 1.77% for three years, and Poly Developments issuing medium-term notes with varying maturities and interest rates [44][45]