Market Performance - In September 2025, the North Exchange 50 Index decreased by 2.90%, continuing to underperform compared to the ChiNext and STAR Market indices [6][12][30] - The North Exchange 50 Index had a year-to-date increase of 47% for the first nine months of 2025, but this was surpassed by the ChiNext 50 and STAR 50 indices [3][6][12] - The trading volume in September 2025 rose to 26.019 billion shares, but the trading value fell to over 610 billion yuan, with the average daily trading value dropping from 30.5 billion yuan in August to 28 billion yuan in September [14][17][22] Industry Insights - In September 2025, only 15 companies saw their stock prices increase by 10% or more, with five companies, including Tianhong Lithium and Beitery, experiencing gains exceeding 20% [13][16] - The construction materials and home appliances sectors showed relatively better performance in September 2025 [11][15] Valuation Metrics - As of September 30, 2025, the overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the North Exchange A-shares reached 50 times, which is 109% of the ChiNext's valuation and 62% of the STAR Market's valuation [22][30] - The average PE ratio for newly listed companies from January 1, 2024, to September 30, 2025, was 13.99 times, with an average first-day price fluctuation of 240% [41][42] New Listings and IPOs - From January 1, 2024, to September 30, 2025, a total of 38 companies were newly listed on the North Exchange, with no new companies listed in the last week of September 2025 [36][43] - One company, Xintianli, passed the listing committee meeting, while two companies, Hengdao Technology and Xinrui Electronics, are under inquiry [43][44]

北交所定期报告 2025 年 09 月 30 日 我国电声行业保持快速发展态势,北交所拟上市公司有海菲曼和先歌国际 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC: S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC: S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock. com 北交所消费服务产业跟踪第三十三期(20250928) 投资要点: 国内领先的电声产品制造商逐步向中高端电声市场迈进。我国电声行业自 20世纪 A 80年代以来保持了快速发展态势,已自行研发并逐步掌握了从电声元器件到终端电 声产品的多项生产技术,形成了较为完整的电声工业体系和相关产业链。国内领先 的电声产品制造商逐步从低端电声元器件市场竞争中突围,向中高端电声市场迈进。 全球耳机市场规模从 2013年的 84亿美元增长至 2022年的 583 亿美元,CAGR 为 24.02%。我国耳机行业总产值从 2013 年的 492.56 亿元增长至 2021 年的 1,374.22 亿元,CAGR 达到 13.68%,其中无线耳机为产值增速较快的细分产品。相对于普通 的大众消费级耳机,发烧级耳机 ...

证券研究报告 传媒 行业专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 30 日 证券分析师 陈良栋 SAC：S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 周政宇 SAC：S1350525050006 zhouzhengyu@huayuanstock.com 魏桢 weizhen@huayuanstock.com 团播， 一次产业的自我升级 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——传媒互联网行业专题报告 投资要点： 几点认知差：人群、政策、商业化和国际化。 1）男团和女团的核心受众均是女性为主。目前女团/男团核心受众均是女性（18-40 岁）为主，是直播打赏市场中的增量消费人群，"世另我"的情绪消费+社交氛围+ 粉丝经济，或将拉伸整体付费宽度+水位，明显区别于过去"暧昧经济"的直播内容 受众。 2）政策的高要求和严监管推动行业集中度提升。2025 年，抖音发布《抖音直播团 播机构管理规范》，从团播机构管理层面明确六项禁止行为。近一年来，平台已处 置 1200 多个违规团播账号，清退 12 家违规经营机构，为优质团播成长营造健康环 境。 3）直播打赏之外，IP 和 ...

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 30 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com 我国电声行业保持快速发展态势，北交所拟上市公司有海菲曼和先歌国际 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第三十三期（20250928） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 国内领先的电声产品制造商逐步向中高端电声市场迈进。我国电声行业自 20 世纪 80 年代以来保持了快速发展态势，已自行研发并逐步掌握了从电声元器件到终端电 声产品的多项生产技术，形成了较为完整的电声工业体系和相关产业链。国内领先 的电声产品制造商逐步从低端电声元器件市场竞争中突围，向中高端电声市场迈进。 全球耳机市场规模从 2013 年的 84 亿美元增长至 2022 年的 583 亿美元，CAGR 为 24.02%。我国耳机行业总产值从 2013 年的 492.56 亿元增长至 2021 年的 1,374. ...

Fixed Income - The bond market experienced significant adjustments in September, influenced by strong stock market performance and institutional behaviors, particularly in technology stocks, leading to expectations of economic recovery [2][8][9] - The current configuration of the bond market is highlighted as having substantial value, with a potential stabilization and a downward trend in bond yields anticipated [11][14][16] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a need for continued monetary policy support, with expectations for further interest rate cuts as economic data shows signs of weakness [10][14] Transportation - The express delivery sector is witnessing a price increase, with major companies raising rates in Shanghai, indicating a shift from price competition to quality-driven growth, which is expected to enhance profitability [22][23][34] - The shipping and port sector is recommended for investment due to improved industrial profits and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with specific attention to oil transportation and shipping companies benefiting from OPEC+ production increases [24][25][35] Media - The media industry is focusing on the professionalization and quality enhancement of group broadcasts, with initiatives aimed at cultivating high-quality content and innovative cultural promotion [5][6] Automotive - Tesla's upcoming FSD V14 release is anticipated to significantly impact the autonomous driving sector, potentially leading to a paradigm shift in technology and competition within the industry [5][6] Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical company Sinopharm is strategically expanding its CKM pipeline, focusing on chronic disease management, with several products entering clinical stages, reinforcing its leadership in the Chinese market [6][7] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The renewable energy sector is facing a decline in new installations, but there is optimism for policy support for green hydrogen and methanol, which could drive growth in the coming years [6][7] Metals and New Materials - The copper market is expected to enter an upward cycle due to supply disruptions, with significant price increases anticipated as demand remains strong [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the AI trend, with its computing and terminal businesses likely to initiate a new growth phase [6] - The company has a solid market position, ranking fourth globally and second domestically in the telecommunications equipment market, with an 11% market share [8] - The company is transitioning towards a "connectivity + computing" model, with significant growth in its enterprise business, particularly in server and storage products [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 124,251 million RMB - 2024: 121,299 million RMB - 2025E: 138,475 million RMB - 2026E: 156,636 million RMB - 2027E: 174,408 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are: - 2024: -2.38% - 2025E: 14.16% - 2026E: 13.11% - 2027E: 11.35% [7] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is: - 2023: 9,326 million RMB - 2024: 8,425 million RMB - 2025E: 8,380 million RMB - 2026E: 8,937 million RMB - 2027E: 10,379 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are: - 2024: -9.66% - 2025E: -0.54% - 2026E: 6.65% - 2027E: 16.14% [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) projections are: - 2024: 1.76 RMB - 2025E: 1.75 RMB - 2026E: 1.87 RMB - 2027E: 2.17 RMB [7] Business Segments - The company is focusing on three main business areas: operator networks, government and enterprise business, and consumer products [8] - The operator network business has a stable foundation, with a gross margin of 52.94% in the first half of 2025, serving as a significant cash flow source [8] - The enterprise business has seen a doubling in revenue, driven by increased investment in computing infrastructure by domestic and international clients [8] - The terminal business is expanding with the introduction of AI technology in devices, including the launch of the Nubia Z70 Ultra, the world's first AI phone with embedded DeepSeek-R1 [8] Valuation and Comparables - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 83.80 billion RMB, 89.37 billion RMB, and 103.79 billion RMB, respectively [8] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 17.57, 16.45, and 14.17 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8] - Comparable companies' average P/E for 2025 is 45.40 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating mentioned in the report. 2. Report's Core View The current bond market has prominent allocation value. The monetary policy has added the statement of "continuous efforts and timely intensification", emphasizing counter - cyclical adjustment, maintaining ample liquidity and reducing social financing costs. The economic data in July and August were lower than expected. From January to August 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from decline to an increase of 0.9% year - on - year, with the single - month profit growth rate in August soaring to 20.4%. The consumer side showed differentiation this week, indicating cautious consumer sentiment. Against the backdrop of economic pressure, there are still expectations of monetary policy easing. The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Bond yields may fluctuate downward, and the 10Y Treasury yield may drop to 1.65% in the fourth quarter [2][10][80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - **Central Bank's Monetary Policy Meeting**: The third - quarter meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee in 2025 added "continuous efforts and timely intensification" to the overall description of monetary policy. It removed "more risk hidden dangers" in the domestic economic description and "continuous" from the description of prices. The new statement "implement and refine the moderately loose monetary policy" was added, and "deepening the structural reform of the financial supply - side" was removed [12]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a year - on - year decline of 1.7% to an increase of 0.9%. In August, the single - month profit growth rate rebounded significantly to 20.4%, driven by policy effects, low - base support, and industry structure optimization. However, nearly half of the industries still had negative year - on - year profit growth [18][19]. - **US Tariff and PCE Data**: The US will impose a new round of high - tariffs on multiple imported products starting from October 1. The US PCE price index in August increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, both in line with expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in October rose above 80% [4][22]. 3.2 Meso - level High - frequency Data - **Consumption**: As of September 21, the daily average retail and wholesale volumes of passenger cars increased by 9.4% and 5.8% year - on - year respectively. As of September 19, the total retail volume of three major household appliances increased by 10.2% year - on - year, while the total retail sales decreased by 12.9% year - on - year [24][28]. - **Transportation**: As of September 21, the weekly container throughput at ports increased by 12.9% year - on - year, postal express pick - up volume increased by 19.4% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic increased by 20.7% year - on - year. As of September 27, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased by 8.5% year - on - year [34][39][41]. - **Industrial Operating Rates**: As of September 24, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 3.2 percentage points year - on - year. As of September 25, the average asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate increased by 7.5 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points year - on - year [44][46]. - **Real Estate**: As of September 27, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 3.6% year - on - year. As of September 19, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities increased by 78.4% year - on - year [51][53]. - **Prices**: As of September 26, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 25.0% year - on - year and 2.2% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 21.2% year - on - year and increased by 2.6% compared with 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar decreased by 7.5% year - on - year and 1.9% compared with 4 weeks ago, while the average spot price of iron ore increased by 8.4% year - on - year and 2.4% compared with 4 weeks ago [54][60]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - **Short - term Interest Rates**: On September 28, the overnight Shibor was 1.31%, down 9.90BP from September 23. On September 26, R001, DR001, and IBO001 decreased, while R007, DR007, and IBO007 increased compared with September 22 [63]. - **Bond Yields**: On September 26, most Treasury yields rose. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields were 1.39%/1.62%/1.88%/2.22% respectively, with changes of flat/+0.5BP/+0.3BP/+1.8BP compared with September 19. The yields of China Development Bank bonds and local government bonds also showed different changes [68][70]. - **Foreign Exchange**: On September 26, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.12/7.13, up 24/220 pips compared with September 19 [76]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior The median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds estimated on September 26 was about 4.5 years, down about 0.04 years from last week. The median and average durations of medium - and long - term credit bond funds estimated on September 26 were about 2.9 years, down about 0.2 years from last week [76][79]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations The current bond market has prominent allocation value. The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Bond yields may fluctuate downward. Although the bond market may be disturbed by the stock market's risk appetite in the short term, its allocation value is prominent supported by the fundamentals. The 10Y Treasury yield may drop to 1.65% in the fourth quarter [80][83].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry is experiencing resilient demand, with a shift towards "quality over quantity" leading to price increases, which will enhance corporate profitability. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction [4][13] - The shipping sector is anticipated to benefit from the OPEC+ production cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in the oil transportation market expected in Q4 2025 [13] - The aviation industry is projected to see long-term demand growth due to macroeconomic recovery, with short-term ticket booking data indicating a rebound [13] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is witnessing a significant price increase, with over 90% of regions in China experiencing price hikes, which is expected to improve profitability for companies [4] - Key companies to watch include YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, and SF Express, all of which are positioned to benefit from the industry's positive trends [13] Shipping and Shipbuilding - The shipping sector is expected to see a cyclical recovery, particularly in oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical uncertainties enhancing VLCC rate elasticity [13] - The shipbuilding market is in a green transition phase, with new orders expected to improve as market conditions stabilize [13] Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing low supply growth with increasing demand, leading to a favorable long-term outlook. Companies like China Southern Airlines and Air China are highlighted for their potential [13][14] Logistics and Ports - The logistics sector is seeing a positive trend with companies like Shenzhen International and Debon Logistics expected to benefit from improved competition and operational efficiencies [13] - Port operations are stable, with a focus on cash flow and growth potential in hub ports like China Merchants Port and Qingdao Port [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media and internet industry [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the trend towards specialization and quality in group broadcasting, indicating a shift from reliance on individual charisma to systematic innovation for stable growth [6] - The gaming sector shows strong resilience and potential for new game contributions, with expectations for financial validation in Q3. The current gaming market is characterized by product performance-driven valuation recovery without significant bubbles [5] - The film and television sectors are expected to see steady growth driven by quality films and new policies aimed at enhancing content supply [7][39] - The internet sector is advised to rationally assess platform strategies in the context of reduced competition, with a focus on innovation rather than price wars [8] Summary by Sections Gaming Sector - Major companies like Tencent and NetEase are expected to continue performing well, with a focus on high-quality products and new game releases [5] - Recommendations include monitoring top gaming companies exploring AI integration and the potential for value reassessment based on product performance [5] Film and Television - The film "731" has achieved over 1 billion yuan in box office revenue, indicating a positive trend for the film market [6][41] - Upcoming films and series are expected to contribute to market growth, with a focus on quality production companies and cinema chains [6][7] - The report highlights new government initiatives aimed at enhancing television content supply and improving production efficiency [7] Internet Sector - The report suggests a shift in the internet sector towards stable growth through innovation, moving away from aggressive price competition [8] - Key players like Tencent and Alibaba are noted for their resilience and strategic adjustments in organizational structure [8] AI Applications - The report highlights the importance of AI applications in various sectors, including e-commerce and gaming, with a focus on revenue-generating applications [10] - Companies are encouraged to explore AI integration in their business models to enhance operational efficiency and market competitiveness [10] Card and Trendy Toys - The report notes a high level of interest in the card and trendy toy sectors, with companies expanding their product lines and market presence [9] National Publishing and Media - The report emphasizes the ongoing exploration of new business models by state-owned publishing companies, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The upcoming release of Tesla's FSD V14 is expected to significantly enhance the driving experience, with capabilities described as "almost sentient" [4][7] - The FSD V14 update is anticipated to feature a tenfold increase in model parameters and substantial improvements in video compression technology, which may lead to performance enhancements beyond market expectations [7][30] - Tesla's FSD system has shown remarkable improvements in key metrics, with urban takeover mileage increasing from an average of approximately 100 miles per instance in FSD V12 to over 200 miles in FSD V13 [18][19] Summary by Sections 1. Tesla FSD V14 Expected Release - Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that FSD V14.0 is expected to be released next week, followed by versions 14.1 and 14.2, with the latter promising unprecedented intelligent driving experiences [4][7] - The FSD V14 update is structured into three iterations: testing, optimization, and official release, with significant enhancements in model parameters and environmental perception capabilities [7][30] 1.1 Current FSD System Performance - The FSD system's capabilities are improving significantly, with a competitive data loop system established for efficient model training and deployment [9] - As of Q2 2025, Tesla's vehicles equipped with FSD have accumulated over 4.5 billion miles of driving, a substantial increase from 1.6 billion miles in Q2 2024 [9][11] 1.2 Expansion of Model Parameters - The report highlights a shift towards an end-to-end architecture and exploration of world models, aiming to enhance the model's understanding and generalization capabilities [26][30] - The introduction of SDF technology is expected to refine the vehicle's perception of the physical world, enhancing both navigation and parking functionalities [31][34] Investment Analysis Recommendations - Investors are advised to monitor domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers with advanced autonomous driving technologies, such as XPeng Motors and Li Auto [4] - Attention should also be given to upstream component manufacturers benefiting from advancements in autonomous driving technology, including SoC manufacturers and domain control suppliers [4]