Group 1: Market Overview - The cultural and creative toy industry is experiencing a positive trend, driven by national cultural confidence and the Z generation becoming the main consumer force[3] - The market size of the national tide economy reached 2.05 trillion yuan in 2023, with expectations to exceed 3 trillion yuan by 2028, reflecting a growth rate of 9.44%[3] - The Chinese cultural and creative product market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.11% from 2020 to 2024, surpassing the global average of 19.79%[3] Group 2: Company Performance - Taohuxue's revenue in 2024 was 516 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.96%, while its net profit was 28.06 million yuan, down 18.32%[32] - Baixinglong's revenue in 2024 reached 592 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.21%, but its net profit decreased by 10.53% to 41.23 million yuan[38] - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the North Exchange's consumer service sector increased from 53.2X to 53.4X this week[45] Group 3: Investment Insights - The median market capitalization of consumer service companies on the North Exchange rose from 123.92 billion yuan to 124.65 billion yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment[48] - 68% of consumer service companies on the North Exchange saw their stock prices increase, with notable gainers including Guoyi Bidding (+70.62%) and Guangzi International (+24.71%)[43] - The overall consumer industry P/E ratio median decreased from 70.6X to 68.1X, suggesting a slight contraction in valuation[53] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, market competition, and statistical data inaccuracies[68]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the need for the express delivery industry to shift towards high-quality development, as the State Post Bureau opposes "involution" competition and aims to improve service quality [4] - The express delivery sector is currently experiencing a decline in per-package revenue, with major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Shentong showing year-on-year decreases in revenue per package [4] - Jitu's Southeast Asian market has seen significant growth, with a total package volume of 7.392 billion pieces in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [5] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential for growth [12] - The shipping sector is anticipated to improve due to OPEC+ production increases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with specific recommendations for companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery market is facing intense competition, with major players experiencing a decline in revenue per package [4] - The report suggests that regulatory changes could help improve the situation by reducing low-cost competition and enhancing the performance of leading companies [4][12] Airline Industry - The airline sector is characterized by long-term low supply growth, but demand is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery [12] - Key companies to watch include China National Aviation Holding, Southern Airlines, and HNA Group [12] Shipping and Ports - The report indicates a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts [12] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for their growth potential in the shipping market [12] Road and Rail - The report notes that the Daqin Railway experienced a year-on-year decrease in freight volume in June 2025, while overall logistics operations remain stable [11][12] - Companies like Zhongyuan Expressway and Sichuan Chengyu are highlighted for their growth potential due to infrastructure developments [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the media and internet industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the upcoming mid-year earnings announcements are expected to provide trading opportunities, with a positive outlook for the summer season driven by quality products. If high-frequency data does not show a turning point, the trend of high prosperity is likely to continue upward. It is also recommended to pay attention to major domestic companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance in the iteration of AI underlying technologies and AI application products [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections Game Sector - As of July 13, 2025, the game "Douluo Dalu: Hunting Soul World" by Sanqi Interactive ranks first in the iOS free game chart, while Tencent's "Delta Action" ranks second in the free game chart and third in the revenue chart. The summer season is expected to see new game launches and major updates for existing products, with high-frequency data not showing a turning point, indicating continued trading catalysts. Attention is recommended for leading gaming companies exploring AI+companionship+gamification paradigms [5][6]. Internet Sector - On July 12, Meituan announced that its daily order volume for instant retail exceeded 150 million, with over 35 million orders for "Pin Hao Fan" and over 50 million for "Shen Qiang Shou." On July 7, Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me jointly announced that their daily order count exceeded 80 million, with over 13 million non-food orders. The report suggests that the platform advantages of leading companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan are reflected in their resilient fundamentals, and attention should be paid to their strategic adjustments [6][10]. AI Application Sector - The report highlights significant progress in AI applications, with digital human Luo Yonghao's live-streaming debut achieving a GMV of over 55 million yuan. The integration of AI in e-commerce live streaming is expected to lower operational costs and enhance efficiency. Companies involved in digital human production, IP, and live-streaming e-commerce operations are recommended for attention [7][8]. Film Sector - The summer film season is expected to drive steady growth in box office revenue, with a focus on key film producers and cinema/ticketing companies. The report suggests monitoring companies like Wanda Film, Maoyan Entertainment, and Alibaba Pictures [9][10]. Card and Trendy Toys Sector - The report notes a high prosperity level in the card and trendy toys sector, with companies increasingly focusing on the "Guzi Economy" and expanding their product lines. Continuous attention is recommended for companies involved in card and trendy toy development [9][10]. State-owned Publishing Sector - The report indicates that state-owned publishing companies have disclosed their 2024 financial reports, with some exploring new business models in education and enhancing dividend sustainability. Attention is recommended for state media companies actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions [10]. Market Review - From July 7 to July 11, 2025, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.78%, and the media sector (Shenwan) rose by 3.11%, ranking 8th among all industries [11][15].

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 13 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年07月11日 华源晨会精粹 20250713 固定收益 农村金融机构持有多少债券？——农商行债券投资情况梳理：近年来，农 商行逐渐成为债券市场的重要参与者。中长期来看，商业银行债券投资占比或趋于 上升。截至 2025 年 3 月末，农村金融机构资产规模达 59.9 万亿元，倘若债券投资 占比与中小型银行一致，持有债券规模达 13.6 万亿元。需要关注农商行债券投资可 能的监管政策。利率债看窄幅震荡，继续看多长久期下沉城投及资本债。我们认为 25Q3 降息的可能性低，但当前央行较宽松，利率债很难明显调整，看窄幅震荡。我 们建议，利率债波段操作紧盯资金面，一旦收紧就防守。6 月初以来我们持续看多长 久期下沉的城投债及资本债、保险次级债，力推民生、渤海、恒丰长久期资本债， 看多城投点心债及美元债。继续关注港股银行机会。关注中华财险资本补充债投资 机会。 风险提示：经济可能好于预期，央行可能收紧资金面，可能引发债市调整；农商行 等银行自营投资债券及基金监管政策可能收紧；理财估值整改 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a transformation with traditional Big Pharma companies increasingly focusing on innovation and BD (business development) transactions, which are expected to become a regular source of income and profit [9][12] - The report highlights that the innovative drug segment is gaining momentum, with companies like 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) and 翰森制药 (Hansoh Pharmaceutical) achieving significant growth in their innovative drug revenues [12][21] - The report anticipates that the pharmaceutical industry will benefit from multiple positive factors, including the aging population, steady growth in medical insurance revenue, and advancements in AI technology [45] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From July 7 to July 11, the pharmaceutical index rose by 1.82%, outperforming the沪深 300 index by 1.00% [5] - The report notes that 350 stocks in the sector increased in value, while 131 stocks decreased [5][25] Business Development (BD) Insights - BD transactions are becoming a crucial strategy for traditional Big Pharma, with a focus on increasing international revenue and opening new growth avenues [9][12] - The report indicates that BD income is expected to contribute significantly to the profit growth of companies like 恒瑞医药 and 翰森制药, with numerous successful licensing agreements [18][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs and related sectors, particularly companies with strong BD capabilities and those positioned for international expansion [45][46] - Specific companies recommended for investment include 恒瑞医药, 科伦药业, and various CXO and supply chain firms [45][46] Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing shift towards innovative drug development, with traditional pharmaceutical companies successfully transitioning to this model [12][21] - The aging population is expected to drive demand for chronic disease treatments, further supporting the growth of the pharmaceutical sector [45] Valuation Insights - As of July 11, 2025, the overall PE valuation for the pharmaceutical sector is 35.79X, indicating that the sector is still at a relatively low historical valuation [33][45]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are under pressure due to the implementation of a 50% tariff on copper by the U.S., which is expected to take effect in late July or early August. This has led to a significant increase in U.S. copper prices while London and Shanghai copper prices have declined [5][9]. - The report anticipates that global copper inventory transfers will conclude, providing some support for copper prices despite the short-term pressure from tariffs. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate between 77,000 and 79,000 CNY per ton in the near term [5]. - The aluminum market is characterized by low inventory levels, with aluminum prices experiencing high volatility. The report notes a slight increase in alumina prices and a decrease in aluminum production margins [5][26]. - Lithium prices are rebounding from the bottom, driven by a "reverse involution" trend, with expectations for supply-side reductions and seasonal demand support [5][78]. - Cobalt prices may rebound due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to tighten supply in the fourth quarter [5][88]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report discusses macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. unemployment claims, and the announcement of copper tariffs by the U.S. government [9]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices fell by 2.43%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 1.63%. U.S. copper prices increased by 10.30%. Inventory levels showed a mixed trend, with London copper inventory rising by 14.12% and Shanghai copper inventory declining by 3.70% [26]. 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices increased by 0.08%, and Shanghai aluminum prices rose by 0.36%. Inventory levels for both London and Shanghai aluminum increased, while production margins decreased [26][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices decreased, while zinc prices saw a slight increase. Inventory levels for lead and zinc showed mixed trends, with lead inventory declining and zinc inventory increasing [49]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices fell, and nickel prices also experienced a decline. Inventory levels for both metals showed a downward trend [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices, including lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene, saw increases, while hydroxide prices slightly decreased. The report notes ongoing challenges in production margins for lithium [78]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, but the extended export ban from the DRC may create opportunities for price rebounds in the future [88].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The photovoltaic manufacturing industry is currently facing challenges due to unclear downstream demand expectations and excess upstream capacity. However, the implementation of Document No. 136 is expected to clarify demand expectations, leading to improvements in both supply and demand dynamics within the industry [4][20] - The energy storage sector is experiencing a significant increase in project bidding, with June 2025 seeing a record high of 62.8 GWh in public bidding capacity, a 228% increase compared to June 2024 [5][9] - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to rebound due to the "anti-involution" plan aimed at reducing excess capacity and promoting sustainable development within the industry [17][18] Summary by Sections Energy Storage - The energy storage industry is in a transitional phase, with ongoing government support expected to maintain resilient demand for storage projects. Key companies to watch include Haibo Shichuang and Sungrow Power [14][17] - The regions with high renewable energy penetration, such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Hebei, are showing positive attitudes towards supporting energy storage projects [14][15] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing rapid capacity growth, outpacing demand, leading to significant losses for companies. The "anti-involution" plan aims to address this by facilitating the exit of outdated capacity and stabilizing prices [17][18] - The price of polysilicon has seen a dramatic decline, dropping from 65 RMB/kg at the beginning of 2024 to 35 RMB/kg by July 2025, but there are signs of recovery [18][19] - Companies to focus on include Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly Energy, and Xinte Energy in the polysilicon segment, and new technology firms like BQ Materials and Aiko Solar in the photovoltaic technology space [4][20]

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 13 日 2025H1 北交所受理 115 家企业利润中值超 8000 万元，优质公司持续供给中 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com ——北交所周观察第三十四期（20250713） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2025H1 三大交易所合计受理 177 家公司，北交所受理 115 家企业。从月份分布来看，2025 年 1 至 5 月 IPO 受理仅 27 家，而 6 月单月受理量高达 150 家，占上半年总量的 85%。从市 场板块来看，2025H1 北交所受理 115 家，占比 65%，远超其他板块总和；科创板与创业板 各 21 家，主板 20 家。从过往多年情况来看，IPO 受理数量在 6 月份大增是一大常态，6 月 北交所共受理 97 家，受理 ...

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 13 日 农村金融机构持有多少债券？ ——农商行债券投资情况梳理 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 联系人 投资要点： 农商行是债市的重要参与者。近年来，农商行逐渐成为债券市场的重要参与者。农 商行倾向于投资同业存单、国债和地方债、政策性金融债，并参与城投债投资。2024 年农商行对超长期国债的配置力度显著提升，反映出对长期稳定收益的追求。随着 长债收益率大幅下行，农商行债券投资面临收益倒挂问题，A 股上市城农商行 25Q1 债券投资增量中持有至到期科目占比仅 4.5%，反映了农商行的投资债券从传统的 "持有至到期"逐渐转向波段交易。 中长期来看，商业银行债券投资占比或趋于上升。利率债作为合格流动性资产，商 业银行需要一定比例的债券持仓来满足 LCR 等流动性监管指标。从中小型银行整体 来看，债券投资占比从 2015 年 1 月末的 13.7%升至 2025 年 5 月末的 22.7%。随着 房地产大时代过去 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report argues that China Minsheng Bank's existing non - performing assets are basically resolved, its fundamentals are improving, and the market may have overestimated its credit risk. The investment value of its Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is relatively high, with significant potential for yield decline and prominent cost - effectiveness [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Equity Structure and Corporate Governance - **Stable Equity Structure and Controllable Related - Party Loan Risks**: As of Q1 2025, Minsheng Bank's total assets reached 7.78 trillion yuan, and it is one of the 20 system - important banks in China in 2023. The top shareholder is Dajia Life Insurance, and the shareholding of private enterprises is relatively dispersed. As of the end of 2024, related - party loans accounted for only 1.64% of the total loans, meeting regulatory requirements [2][6][7]. - **Reasonable Board and Management Structure**: In 2024, there were significant personnel changes in the board of directors and management. Most executives were promoted internally, and a few were from large state - owned banks. The board structure is reasonable, with diversified members and high operational independence. Private shareholders have weak influence on bank operations [14][15][16]. 3.2 Asset Scale and Structure - **Large Asset Scale and Main Investment in Loans and Bonds**: From 2020 - 2024, the average annual compound growth rate of Minsheng Bank's assets was 2.98%. As of the end of 2024, its total assets were 7.81 trillion yuan, the largest among banks in the first group of system - important banks. Loans and financial investments accounted for over 80% of total assets [19][26]. - **Steady Loan Growth and Industry Structure Optimization**: From 2017 - 2024, the average annual compound growth rate of loans was 7.04%. As of Q1 2025, loans accounted for 57.36% of total assets. The proportion of real estate loans has been decreasing, while that of infrastructure - related industries has been increasing. As of the end of 2024, the loans of the top ten borrowing customers accounted for 1.72% of the total loans, indicating a low loan concentration [28][34][41]. - **Government Bond - Based Financial Investments with Low Credit Risk**: As of the end of 2024, financial investments accounted for 30.69% of total assets, with bond investments accounting for about 89.42%. Government bonds accounted for 63.82%, and the credit risk of the investment portfolio was low [45][49]. 3.3 Non - Performing Asset Disposal and Asset Quality - **Resolution of Existing Non - Performing Assets**: From 2020 - 2022, Minsheng Bank cleared and disposed of over 300 billion yuan of non - performing and potentially risky assets. As of the end of 2024, the non - performing loan rate, non - performing loan generation rate, and migration rate of normal and special - mention loans had declined for four consecutive years [52][71]. - **Improvement in Asset Quality Indicators**: The non - performing loan generation rate decreased from 3.63% at the end of 2020 to 1.49% at the end of 2024. The non - performing loan rate at the end of 2024 was 1.47%. Although the overdue loan rate and the proportion of restructured loans increased in 2024, the overall asset quality is improving [71][72][75]. 3.4 Liability Structure and Operating Performance - **Optimized Liability Structure and Good Liquidity Indicators**: From 2022 - 2024, the proportion of deposits in liabilities was about 60%. The reliance on inter - bank liabilities decreased, while the scale of bonds payable increased. As of the end of 2024, liquidity regulatory indicators met regulatory requirements, and capital adequacy indicators remained stable [80][85][90]. - **Potential Turnaround in Operating Performance**: From 2020 - 2024, operating income and net profit declined. However, in Q1 2025, the revenue growth rate was high. The net interest margin in 2024 was at a low level in the industry, but with the downward adjustment of deposit rates, the net interest margin is expected to stabilize [98][103][114]. 3.5 Investment Value of Minsheng Bank's Capital Bonds - **Fundamental Improvement and Potential Performance Growth**: Existing non - performing assets are basically resolved, and based on assumptions such as loan industry structure optimization and improved asset quality, Minsheng Bank's performance is expected to improve slightly in the next three years [120][122]. - **Low Credit Risk of Capital Bonds**: Minsheng Bank's existing capital tools amount to 175 billion yuan, with normal interest payments and all previous capital tools actively redeemed at maturity. The yields of its Tier 2 and perpetual bonds are higher than the industry average, but the market may have overestimated its credit risk. The bonds have low credit risk due to factors such as high trigger thresholds for write - down or conversion and the bank's safety - rated central bank financial institution rating [123][124][128].