建筑装饰 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 13 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 新疆板块表现亮眼，继续推荐四川路桥 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建筑装饰行业周报（20251006-20251012） 投资要点： 本周观点： 自治区成立 70 周年庆典举行，区域经济动能持续。 自 1949 年和平解放、1955 年自治 区成立以来，新疆实现跨越式发展，地区生产总值由 12.31 亿元增至 2024 年的 2.05 万 亿元，一般公共预算收入提升近 1400 倍。近年来固定资产投资增速显著快于全国，2025 年前 8 个月同比增长 9.1%，继续大幅领先全国的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery sector is resilient, and the "anti-involution" trend is driving up express delivery prices, releasing profit elasticity for companies. Long-term positive competition opportunities are expected in the e-commerce express delivery sector. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are likely to benefit from cyclical recovery and ongoing cost reductions, with potential for both performance and valuation increases [13] - In the shipping sector, the outlook for crude oil transportation is favorable due to the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may enhance VLCC freight rate elasticity. The shipping market is expected to improve significantly in Q4 2025, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [13] - The shipbuilding sector is in the early stages of a green renewal cycle, with shipping market conditions and green renewal progress being the core demand drivers. Despite a decline in new ship orders, shipyards remain busy. Factors constraining new ship market activities are expected to ease or improve, suggesting a potential profit realization period for shipbuilding companies [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant increase in business volume, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3% in the number of packages delivered [24] - Major companies like YTO Express and SF Express are showing strong growth in business volume, with SF Express achieving a remarkable 34.8% year-on-year increase [26] Shipping - The current week saw a slight increase in the Clarkson comprehensive freight rate to $28,977 per day, while the BDI index decreased by 4.3% to 1,941 points [44] - The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) decreased by 2.5% to 1,084 points, indicating a slight downturn in the market [44] Aviation - In August 2025, global air passenger demand grew by 4.6%, with a load factor of 86.0%, marking a historical high for the month [10] - The overall passenger transport volume for civil aviation reached approximately 75 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [55] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing a positive trend, with companies like Debon Logistics and Aneng Logistics showing significant improvements in profitability due to strategic transformations and ecosystem optimizations [15] Ports - The total cargo throughput at Chinese ports reached 272.175 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 4.69% [71] - Container throughput also saw an increase of 8.84%, indicating a robust performance in the port sector [71]

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 12 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 美关税威胁再起，流动性冲击下铜铝价格回落 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/10/06-2025/10/10） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：美关税威胁再起，流动性冲击下铜价回落，铜价中长期上行逻辑不变。前期在全球 第二大铜矿供给端扰动及美联储降息预期催化下，伦铜价格一度达 1.1 万美元/吨，沪铜 价格一度超 8.8 万元/吨。周五晚，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The release of the "14th Five-Year" Energy Planning Management Measures emphasizes compliance and economic viability in energy projects, with stricter controls on project inclusion in energy planning [2][7] - The new measures aim to enhance the systematic, authoritative, scientific, and adaptive nature of energy planning, with a focus on mid-term and summary evaluations [7][9] - The market sentiment towards new energy development has been pessimistic due to the negative impact of market transactions on investment returns, but the 2035 development goals announced by President Xi Jinping have provided reassurance [3][10] - The government is addressing irrational competition in the energy sector, particularly in coal and photovoltaic industries, to stabilize prices and promote the exit of inefficient capacities [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Energy Planning Management Measures - The new management measures replace the previous version and are effective for five years, focusing on high-quality energy development [7] - The measures restrict provincial energy planning from including projects not approved at the national level, ensuring a more rigorous planning process [8][9] 2. Market Dynamics and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stocks with third-quarter performance catalysts, highlighting long-term investments in quality hydropower and undervalued wind power companies [12][13] - Short to medium-term recommendations include companies with strong asset quality and management capabilities, as well as regional stocks with lower downside risk [11][12]

证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 12 日 证券分析师 板块表现： 印尼供给扰动推动锡价走强，稀土行业出台出口管制公告 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属＆新材料双周报（2025/9/29-2025/10/10） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 稀土：宏观情绪增强，氧化镨钕高位震荡。近两周，氧化镨钕下跌 0.89%至 55.75 万元/吨，氧化镝上涨 0.62%至 162 万元/吨，氧化铽下跌 0.35%至 702.5 万元/吨。 ...

hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 12 日 证券分析师 证券研究报告 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | 北交所全面进入"920 新代码"时代，资本市场动荡需关注短期波动和长期机会 ——北交所周观察第四十七期（20251012） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 10 月 9 日北交所全面进入"920 时代"，北交所作为中国第三大证券交易所的独立地位有望 得到进一步夯实。2025 年 10 月 3 日，北交所开展北京证券交易所存量上市公司证券代码批 量切换等业务通关测试，也是代码切换之前的最后一次测试。回顾整个代码切换政策推进历 程，2023 年 11 月 17 日，为落实"深改 19 条"意见，北交所启动为上市公司股票使用 920 代码号段的相关准备工作。2024 年 4 月 22 日，北交所上线启用 920 ...

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 11 日 10 月，信用策略如何布局？ ——信用策略系列报告 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com 拉长时间维度到 2025Q3，短端下沉策略仍然是相对占优的策略选择。2025Q3，10Y 国 债收益率从季度初的 1.64%调整至 9/30 的 1.86%（以中债国债到期收益率曲线列示的数据为 准），不同期限不同券种的信用债收益率在 2025Q3 也都跟随利率出现不同程度调整，持续的 下跌行情使得市场情绪趋向谨慎。2025Q3，不同券种的短端下沉策略组合均有正收益，3Y AAA-产业债子弹型策略也录得正收益，除此以外的其他策略对组合收益均有负向贡献，其中 城投债哑铃型、二级债哑铃型、银行永续债哑铃型和拉久期策略的亏损均达到了 1%以上。值 得注意的是，无论何种策略，在 9 月份或是三季度所能够获得的资本利得均为负值，在票息 保护本就相对较弱 ...

证券研究报告|北交所专题报告 2025年10月9日 证券分析师 姓名：赵昊 资格编号：S1350524110004 邮箱：zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：万枭 资格编号：S1350524100001 邮箱：wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 核心要点：9月新股收益率维持397%高位，2025Q3预期顶格收益达14.4万元 n 发行情况：2025年前9个月共计15家公司完成上市，募资49亿元，全年募资已超越2024年；9月有3家公司上市，募资额 9.2亿元，北交所IPO节奏维持加速态势，预计后续IPO延续该节奏。2025Q3有9家公司上市（上季度为3家），募资额27 亿元（上季度为7亿元），从募资规模来看，2025Q3创下2024Q1以来新高。公司质量方面，2025年前9月，北交所新上 市公司的2024年营收平均为8.9亿元，归母净利润平均为1.3亿元，财务数据相比2023-2024年新上市公司显著提升。 n 申购热度：从网上申购资金来看，2025年前9个月平均达6079亿元，9月平均达7248亿元；2025Q3平均达 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 09 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年10月09日 华源晨会精粹 20251009 固定收益 银行优先股：且配且珍惜——规模、条款设计与投资策略：银行优先股在 优先股市场中占据主导地位。商业银行优先股试点自 2014 年正式启动，是我国银行 业资本工具创新的重要里程碑。截至 2025 年 9 月 16 日，共有存续优先股 31 只， 总规模 7058.75 亿元，其中银行优先股 28 只，存续总规模 7011.50 亿元。银行为银 行优先股重要持有人。国有大行优先股二级成交规模较大，政策推动永续债发行使 优先股市场活跃度下降。当前对银行优先股的投资，应在充分考虑"赎回风险"前 提下采取防御型策略。在利率下行环境中，银行主动赎回优先股的动力较强。其中 固定溢价较高的优先股，因其未来付息成本较高，银行赎回旧券、重新低息融资的 动力较强烈，易遭遇"价值毁灭"，需重点警惕该风险。相反，固定溢价较低的优 先股，其股息支付压力相对较小，即使利率下行，银行主动赎回的动力也相对有限， 安全性更高。因此，建议采用防御型投资策略， ...

M&A Overview - A total of 59 new disclosed equity transactions occurred in the period from September 15 to September 30, 2025, with a total transaction value of 9.45 billion RMB[3] - Among these, 25 were acquisition events, with 4 initiated by companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE)[10] - Major projects included significant investments in emerging industries such as new energy, biomedicine, semiconductors, and scientific instruments[10] Recent Acquisitions - Four new acquisition events were reported, including Huaitong New Materials planning to acquire 51% of Baoding Sanyuan, and Chuangyuan Xinke proposing to acquire 100% of Weiyu Tiandao for up to 900 million RMB[15] - The acquisition of Weiyu Tiandao is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring and is focused on expanding capabilities in satellite testing[5] Financial Performance - Weiyu Tiandao achieved revenue of 211.25 million RMB and a net profit of 51.65 million RMB in 2024, with an estimated PE ratio of no more than 17.4 times based on the acquisition price[30] - The acquisition is anticipated to enhance Chuangyuan Xinke's capabilities in integrated testing solutions for communication and navigation[27] Market Trends - The BSE is witnessing a trend towards vertical expansion, business upgrades, and market expansion, particularly in high-growth sectors like new energy and advanced manufacturing[42] - The integration of technology and business models is expected to drive innovation and enhance competitive advantages in the market[33]