证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 看好快递格局向好，航空供需结构向上 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 12 月 1 日-2025 年 12 月 7 日） 投资要点： 一、一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）顺丰行业首推"超时赔付"服务。根据顺丰集团公众号，12 月 1 日起，顺丰于 行业内首次推出"超时赔付"服务，只要在小程序或 APP 等顺丰官方渠道下单顺丰 特快，若因顺丰运输原因导致的派送超时，客 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月05日 华源晨会精粹 20251207 北交所 五载风劲，掘"稀"向"新"—北交所 2026 年度投资策略：总结 2025 年： "十四五"收官，四秩筑基。成果来看，2025 年作为"十四五"规划收官之年，北 交所市场迎来多重突破，总市值突破 8200 亿元，开户数达 950 万户，日均成交额迈 向 300 亿元，流动性实现质的飞跃。市场"专精特新"特色更加鲜明，国家级"小 巨人"占比达 61%，已培育一批高成长、稀缺性企业，在新能源、机器人、AI 等产 业链构建优质企业矩阵。展望 2026 年："十五五"开年，掘稀向新。站在"十五五" 开局新起点，北交所将围绕"稀缺性"与"新质生产力"双主线深化布局。资金层 面，2025H1 公募基金持仓市值达 224 亿元，QFII、社保基金等中长期资金稳步入场； 后续主动权益+被动资金双轮驱动趋势明确，且 ETF 有望引入数十亿元增量活水， 其发展有望遵循"宽基引领、主题拓展"的路径，未来或将形成指数产品体系；专 精特新指数基金 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the consumer service sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with a median stock price change of -1.83% for the week ending December 5, 2025 [2][36]. Core Insights - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into the consumer sector is expected to create new growth opportunities. The government has issued policies to promote AI applications across various consumer goods, aiming to enhance service consumption and foster new product consumption models [3][6][10]. - The consumer market is transitioning from scale expansion to quality and efficiency, driven by AI innovations that enhance user experience and operational efficiency [7][10]. - The report highlights significant growth in AI-related consumer products, such as smart wearables, AI toys, and AI applications in retail and e-commerce, indicating a robust market potential [17][22][30][34]. Summary by Sections 1. AI and Consumer Integration - AI is expected to drive innovation in consumer scenarios and business models, creating a virtuous cycle of consumption-driven economic growth [3][7]. - The government has outlined key actions to integrate AI into consumer services, including the development of smart home devices and AI-driven entertainment products [6][10]. 2. Market Performance - As of December 5, 2025, 27% of consumer service companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange saw stock price increases, with a median market capitalization change of -1.83% [36][38]. - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for consumer service companies decreased from 46.4X to 45.2X, while total market capitalization rose from 1093.85 billion to 1096.29 billion [39][40]. 3. Industry Valuation - The median TTM P/E ratio for the broader consumer sector increased by 0.75% to 50.0X, indicating a slight upward trend in valuations [45][48]. - The P/E ratio for the food and agriculture sector decreased from 51.4X to 50.5X, while the professional services sector saw a minor decline from 26.3X to 26.2X [46][49]. 4. Company Announcements - Tianfangbiao has established a wholly-owned subsidiary in the digital economy industrial park in Quanzhou, Fujian, to enhance its operational capabilities and market competitiveness [54].

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com 信用债收益率延续低位调整 ——信用分析周报（2025/12/1-2025/12/5） 投资要点： 本周信用热点事件：（1）从"十五五"规划建议看各地债务风险防控思路："构建 政府债务管理长效机制"是共识、"盘活存量资源资产"是重要举措；（2）吴清： 健全多层次债券市场体系，大力发展科创债券、绿色债券；（3）交易商协会制定发 布《关于优化并购票据相关工作机制的通知》。 本周市场概览： 联系人 1）一级市场：本周传统信用债发行量、偿还量、净融资额环比上周均有所减少；资 产支持证券净融资额环比上周增加 32 亿元。本周 AA 产业债、金融债发行利率较上 周有较大幅度上升，其余不同评级不同券种的发行利率波动幅度不超过 20BP。 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周减少 567 亿元；换手率方面，本周信用债 换 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media internet industry [4] Core Insights - The release of the Doubao mobile assistant by ByteDance is a significant development, showcasing AI capabilities in mobile operations, but it faces restrictions from major apps like WeChat and Alipay [5][7] - The film and television sectors are expected to see growth, with strong performances from imported films like "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar 3," suggesting potential investment opportunities in production and distribution companies [5] - The AI application sector is evolving, with advancements in content generation and production paradigms, indicating a shift in the industry landscape [6][30] - The gaming industry shows promising trends with high DAU products and new game cycles, presenting investment opportunities in leading gaming companies [8] - The rise of group broadcasting is transforming the industry, moving towards systematic growth and platform development [9] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector saw a decline of 3.86% from December 1 to December 5, 2025, ranking 31st among all industries [13] - Notable stock performances included Lianjian Optoelectronics (+28.62%) and Bona Film Group (+23.60%), while Rongxin Culture (-15.23%) and BlueFocus (-13.98%) faced significant declines [14][19] AI Applications - The report highlights 15 financing events in the AI sector, indicating strong market interest and investment in AI technologies [30] Film and Television - The total box office for the week was 798 million yuan, with "Zootopia 2" leading at 605.58 million yuan, capturing 75.9% of the market share [39][40] - In television, "Tang Dynasty Ghost Stories" led with 172 million views, followed by "Big Businessman" with 156 million views [41][42] Gaming - "Honor of Kings" maintained its position at the top of the iOS game sales chart, while "Zombie Shooting" led the WeChat mini-game rankings [32][35] - The report notes the increasing popularity of mobile games, with significant user engagement and revenue potential [32][38]

投资评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 保险II 2025年12月7日 银保渠道依靠网点数量渗透，个险渠道由"产品+服务"和"差异化账户"驱动 --2026年保险行业策略报告 证券分析师 姓名：陆韵婷 资格编号：S1350525050002 邮箱：luyunting@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 报告要点（1） n 预计26年寿险新单保费和新业务价值将保持较快增长 n 寿险刚性成本有效下降，预计最晚27年寿险的服务边际（CSM)出现向上拐点 n 风险提示：新单保费大幅下降、权益市场大幅下跌、长端利率大幅下降、自然灾害大幅增加。 2 Ø 银保渠道：预计26年银行存款到期再配置需求较大，这些低风险偏好资金或部分流入安全属性较高且有收益弹性的银保产品， 主要上市公司在战略上重视银保渠道，增长驱动因素或来自于银行网点数量的持续渗透和高客的开发，我们预计26年上市险 企的银保渠道新单保费增速有望达到30%以上； Ø 个险渠道：新增代理人数量尚未到拐点，我们认为26年的驱动因素或来自于"产品+服务"和"差异化账户"带来的产能提升， 我们预测主要上市公司26年个险 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Yijiahe, focusing on the deep integration of brain-computer interface and intelligent robot technology, aiming to expand new applications in intelligent health care, emotional interaction, and health management [6] - The company's main business shows steady growth, with a revenue of 344 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.01% [6] - The company is increasing its R&D investment to support expected performance growth, with a gross margin of 70.05% in the first three quarters of 2025 [6] Financial Summary - Revenue forecast for 2025 is 5.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.51% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.17 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.89% [5] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 30.15 in 2025 [5]

证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 | 固收专题报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 07 日 —市场特征与三阶段化债路径解构 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 张一帆 联系人 zhangyifan@huayuanstock.com 当前地方债市场有哪些投资机会？ 地方政府债新特点：规模扩容、发行期限拉长与票面利率下行。2025 年 1-9 月，地 方政府债发行规模 8.53 万亿元，同比增加 1.85 万亿元；平均发行利率 1.93%，同 比下降 44bp；专项债在地方政府债中地位逐渐突出。专项债券发行规模则由 2015 年的 0.97 万亿元上升到 2024 年的 7.7 万亿元，占地方债发行规模的比重由 2015 年 的 25.4%上升到 2024 年的 78.9%；地方政府债票面利率呈现"初期（2015-2017） 波动较大、2017 年之后趋势性下行"特征；地方政府债券规模加权平均发行期限大 幅拉长，由 2019 年的 10.3 年大幅增至 202 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that online spending on Black Friday in the U.S. reached a record $11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, although the number of items purchased decreased due to rising prices [4] - The report suggests focusing on emerging consumer brands that resonate with the new consumption concepts of younger generations, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for investment opportunities [4][15] - The report notes that "Yujian Xiaomian," a Chinese noodle restaurant chain, has expanded its product offerings and achieved a revenue of 703 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.8% [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector saw a weekly performance decline, with the beauty care sector down 2.00%, the retail sector down 0.83%, and the social services sector down 0.65% during the week of December 1 to December 5, 2025 [7] Key Industry Data - In October, retail sales for clothing and textiles in China increased by 6.3% year-on-year, while cosmetics retail sales rose by 9.6% [10][17] - Jewelry retail sales saw a significant increase of 37.6% year-on-year in October [17] - Beverage retail sales also grew by 7.1% year-on-year in October [17]

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 首批北交所主动型主题基金迎第二个开放期，主动与指数新基金发行值得期待 ——北交所周观察第五十五期（20251207） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 8 只北交所主题基金迎第二个开放期，整体表现较为亮眼，印证了北交所企业的投资价值。 2021 年 11 月 23 日，易方达、华夏、广发、南方、嘉实、汇添富、大成、万家基金旗下共计 8 只北交所两年定开混合基金成立。2025 年 12 月 8 日，首批 8 只北交所主题基金将整体迎来 第二个开放期，过去两年平均累计收益接近 100%，跑赢创业板 50、北证 50、科创 50 等主 要指数。其中，有三只主题基金近两年累计收益率超 100%。截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日，8 只北 交所主题基金自成立以来的平均累计回报率 ...