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社会服务行业2023Q4基金持仓分析:行业重仓比例下降,教育板块迎来增仓
Wanlian Securities· 2024-02-22 16:00
[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|社会服务 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 强于大市 研 行业重仓比例下降,教育板块迎来增仓 (维持) 究 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——社会服务行业 2023Q4 基金持仓分析 2024年02月23日 [行Ta业ble核_S心um观m点ar:y] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 2023Q4社会服务基金重仓比例下行,相较于历史水平,社服行业当前 重仓比例不仅远低于历史平均重仓比例,同时也尚未恢复至疫前水 社会服务 沪深300 10% 平,反弹空间较大。分板块来看,专业服务作为半年多来的社服持仓 5% 0% 行 主力地位稳固,教育龙头重新获得基金关注。当前板块当前估值处于 -5% -10% -15% 业 低位,酒店、景区等业绩仍有复苏空间,股价有望得到进一步修复。 -20% -25% 跟 建议关注:1)受益于经济回暖后客流恢复的景区与演艺龙头、酒店 -30% -35% -40% 踪 龙头;2)积极转型发展、符合政策要求的职教公司以及应用科 ...
银行行业跟踪报告:关注后续新发中长期产品的规模变动
Wanlian Securities· 2024-02-21 16:00
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][19]. Core Insights - Under low risk appetite, the configuration of newly issued products and asset allocation is unlikely to change significantly in the short term [1][10]. - In January 2024, the total number of newly issued wealth management products by banks reached 2,794, a month-on-month increase of 3.9%, while the total scale was 4,877 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 4.7% [5][11]. - The proportion of products with a duration of 3-6 months continues to rise, reaching 39% by the end of January, an increase of 12 percentage points compared to January 2023 [5][10]. - The proportion of fixed income products remains high, exceeding 99%, while the performance benchmark for newly issued products has declined to 3.33%, down 0.53% year-on-year and 0.05% month-on-month [7][11]. Summary by Sections 1. New Product Configuration and Asset Allocation - The scale of newly issued medium to long-term products by banks has slightly rebounded, with a total of 2,794 products issued in January 2024 [5]. - The proportion of fixed income products remains high, and the performance benchmark continues to decline [7]. - The overall market risk appetite is low, and the configuration of new products is expected to remain stable in the short term [10]. 2. Wealth Management Company Issuance - In January 2024, wealth management companies issued a total of 1,467 products, a month-on-month increase of 128 products, with a total scale of 4,159 billion, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 151 billion [11]. - The average fundraising scale per product was 284 million, with the proportion of newly issued products steadily increasing within the banking sector [11]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The continued increase in the proportion of short-term products (3-6 months) and the high proportion of fixed income products reflect a low market risk appetite [16]. - The potential adjustment of deposit rates may further help restore the scale of the wealth management market [16].
通信行业跟踪报告:利润端近半数公司同比转好,行业整体有望大幅增长
Wanlian Securities· 2024-02-21 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the broader market in the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The communication industry is projected to experience significant growth, with nearly half of the companies reporting improved year-on-year profits. The total net profit for the 79 companies in the SW communication sector is estimated to be 5.659 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 85.65% [14][18]. - The report highlights that the performance forecast disclosure rate for the SW communication industry stands at 58.96%, which is higher than the overall A-share market disclosure rate of 52.20% [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Forecast Disclosure Rate - The SW communication industry has a disclosure rate of 58.96%, with 79 companies reporting their 2023 performance forecasts, surpassing the overall A-share market [6][8]. - The disclosure rates for different boards are as follows: Main Board 61.67%, ChiNext 62.50%, Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50.00%, and North Exchange 0.00% [8][10]. 2. Profit Improvement - Nearly half of the companies in the SW communication sector reported improved net profits year-on-year, with 38 out of 79 companies showing positive trends, resulting in an overall profit improvement rate of 48.10% [12][14]. - The total net profit for the sector is projected to be 5.659 billion yuan, with a significant increase driven by major companies [14][18]. 3. Net Profit and Non-Recurring Profit Growth - The estimated non-recurring net profit for the SW communication industry is approximately 3.987 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 440.61% [18][24]. - Key companies contributing to this growth include Tongding Interconnection, Hengshi Technology, and others, with significant improvements in their financial performance [24][28]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the demand for data elements and AI models, particularly in areas such as operators, equipment manufacturers, optical modules, and data centers [28].
通信行业快评报告:国资央企领头,加速推进人工智能产业发展
Wanlian Securities· 2024-02-21 16:00
[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|通信 行 9243 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 强于大市 研 国资央企领头,加速推进人工智能产业发展 (维持) 究 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——通信行业快评报告 2024年02月22日 [事Ta件ble:_S ummary] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 2 月 19 日,国务院国资委召开“AI 赋能 产业焕新”中央企业人工智能 专题推进会。会议强调,要推动中央企业在人工智能领域实现更好发展、 通信 沪深300 40% 发挥更大作用。 30% 行 20% 业 投资要点: 10% 快 国资央企带头拥抱AI产业,着力打造人工智能产业集群。会议认为,加 0% -10% 评 快推动人工智能发展,是国资央企发挥功能使命,抢抓战略机遇,培育新 -20% 报 质生产力,推进高质量发展的必然要求。中央企业要主动拥抱人工智能带 -30% 告 来的深刻变革,把加快发展新一代人工智能摆在更加突出的位置,不断强 数据来源:聚源,万联证券研究所 化创新策略、 ...
计算机行业跟踪报告:利润端整体承压,过半标的呈现向好趋势
Wanlian Securities· 2024-02-20 16:00
[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|计算机 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 强于大市 研 利润端整体承压,过半标的呈现向好趋势 (维持) 究 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——计算机行业跟踪报告 2024年02月21日 [行Ta业ble核_S心um观m点ar:y] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 SW计算机行业共219个公司披露2023年业绩预告,占比为62.04%, 披露率高于A股整体。截止2024年2月2日,A股共2792个公司披 计算机 沪深300 30% 露2023年度业绩预告情况,披露率为52.20%。分行业看,SW计算机 20% 6343 行 行业共 219 家公司披露 2023 年业绩预告,披露率为 62.04%,高于 A 10% 0% 业 股整体披露率,披露率在申万各一级行业中排名靠前。 -10% 跟 -20% 投资要点: -30% 踪 -40% 报 SW计算机行业科创板2023年度业绩预告披露率最高,约71.88%。分 -50% 告 板块看,A 股主板/创业 ...
美容护理行业周观点:多家美护上市公司提议回购股份
Wanlian Securities· 2024-02-20 16:00
[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|美容护理 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 强于大市 多家美护上市公司提议回购股份 (维持) 研 究 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——美容护理行业周观点(02.05-02.18) 2024年02月20日 [Table_Summary] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 行业核心观点: 美容护理 沪深300 近月消费呈现平稳恢复态势,预计未来随着经济的逐步恢复和扩大消费 10% 措施的出台,消费活力有望得到进一步刺激。建议关注:①化妆品&医 0% 美:受内外部环境影响,部分医美、化妆品龙头去年业绩出现放缓;中 行 -10% 长期来看,颜值经济下医美、化妆品需求较大,多项化妆品、医美相关 -20% 业 法规发布,行业洗牌背景下合规化妆品、医美龙头公司受益。②黄金珠 -30% 周 宝:近期金价高位震荡,叠加消费场景恢复、黄金饰品工艺提升以及“悦 -40% 观 己”消费观念的深入,看好积极抢占渠道、升级品牌、开发新品的黄金 -50% 点 珠宝龙头企业 ...
大消费行业2023年业绩预告综述:家电、美护、食饮业绩表现最优,农牧盈利恶化
Wanlian Securities· 2024-02-20 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The overall net profit of the eight major consumption sectors in 2023 is projected to reach CNY 122.46 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 75% [2][15]. - The performance of the home appliance, beauty care, and food and beverage sectors stands out, while the agriculture and animal husbandry sector shows significant deterioration in profitability [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Overall Performance - As of February 1, 2024, 453 A-share listed companies in the eight major consumption sectors have released their 2023 performance forecasts, with an overall disclosure rate of 55% [2][13]. - Among the disclosed forecasts, 34% of companies are expected to be profitable, while 21% are projected to incur losses, and 45% have not disclosed their performance [2][3]. 2. Sector Performance - The sectors with the highest profitability ratios are home appliances (76%), beauty care (75%), and textiles and apparel (70%) [2][3]. - The sectors with the highest proportion of profit growth forecasts are home appliances (42%), food and beverage (33%), and beauty care (31%) [2][3]. - The agriculture and animal husbandry sector has the highest proportion of loss-making companies at 57%, followed by light industry manufacturing (43%) and food and beverage (38%) [2][3]. 3. Detailed Sector Analysis - Home appliances and beauty care lead in profitability, with the social services sector showing significant improvement, achieving a turnaround from losses to profits [3][8]. - The beauty care sector's net profit growth rate is projected at 577%, while textiles and apparel are expected to see a 244% increase [3][17]. - The food and beverage sector maintains a stable performance with a projected net profit growth of 21% in 2023, up from 11% in 2022 [3][17]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities in the following sectors for 2024: 1. Food and Beverage: High-end liquor, regional famous liquor, beer, dairy products, condiments, and frozen foods [9]. 2. Real Estate: Home appliances and home furnishings in the post-real estate cycle [9]. 3. Tourism: Benefiting from favorable policies and a resurgence in travel [9]. 4. Pig Farming: Potential upward cycle reversal [9]. 5. Beauty and Jewelry: Continued high demand in the beauty and aesthetics market [9].
银行行业跟踪报告:低风险偏好持续影响产品布局和资产配置
Wanlian Securities· 2024-02-20 16:00
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market in the next six months [2][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the wealth management product scale showed a trend of initial decline followed by recovery in 2023, with a total scale of 26.80 trillion yuan at the end of 2023, down 3.1% year-on-year but up 5.8% compared to mid-2023 [4][16]. - Fixed income products dominate the market, with their scale reaching 25.82 trillion yuan, reflecting a continued low risk appetite among investors [10][11]. - The proportion of wealth management products with a risk level of secondary (medium-low) or below reached 92.80%, indicating a conservative investment approach [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Wealth Management Product Scale - As of the end of 2023, there were 39,800 wealth management products, an increase of 14.86% from the beginning of the year, with a total scale of 26.80 trillion yuan, showing a trend of initial decline followed by recovery [4][6]. - Wealth management companies accounted for 83.58% of the total market scale, with 31 companies managing 22.47 trillion yuan [6][9]. - Individual investors represented 98.82% of the total number of investors in wealth management products, with a total of 114 million investors [9]. 2. Dominance of Fixed Income Products - Fixed income products accounted for 96.34% of the total scale, with a year-on-year increase of 1.84%, indicating a low risk appetite in the market [10]. - The asset allocation remains primarily in fixed income, with 45.3% allocated to bonds and 26.7% to cash and bank deposits [11]. - The proportion of closed-end products increased to 20.97%, with a shorter average duration for newly issued products [15]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the wealth management market is characterized by a recovery in product scale in the second half of 2023, although it has not returned to the levels seen at the end of 2022 [16]. - The potential for further adjustments in deposit rates is anticipated, which may aid in the recovery of the wealth management market scale [16].
电子行业跟踪报告:利润端短期承压,关注业绩韧性较强的标的
Wanlian Securities· 2024-02-20 16:00
[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|电子 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 强于大市 研 利润端短期承压,关注业绩韧性较强的标的 (维持) 究 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——电子行业跟踪报告 2024年02月20日 [行Ta业ble核_S心um观m点ar:y] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 SW 电子行业共 268 个公司披露 2023 年业绩预告,占比约 56.42%,披 露率高于 A 股整体。截止 2024 年 2 月 2 日,A 股共 2792 个公司披露 电子 沪深300 15% 2023年度业绩预告情况,披露率为52.20%。分行业看,SW电子行业共 10% 5% 行 268家公司披露2023年业绩预告,披露率为56.42%,高于A股整体披 0% 业 露率,在申万各一级行业中排名居中。 -5% -10% 跟 -15% -20% 投资要点: 踪 -25% -30% 报 -35% ⚫ SW 电子行业创业板 2023 年度业绩预告披露率最高,达 62.07%。分板 告 ...
社会服务:2024年春节黄金周旅游消费数据跟踪-春节假期旅游景区持续火热,离岛免税迎来新年开门红
Wanlian Securities· 2024-02-20 16:00
[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|社会服务 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 春节假期旅游景区持续火热,离岛免税迎来 强于大市 (维持) 研 究 新年开门红 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——2024 年春节黄金周旅游消费数据跟踪 2024年02月20日 [行Ta业ble核_S心um观m点ar:y] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 2024年春节黄金周收官,消费市场活力旺盛,旅游景区持续 火爆,表现亮眼,离岛免税喜迎新年开门红。旅游行业受政 社会服务 沪深300 5% 策和文旅宣传等因素影响,出行人次创新高,国内游、出境 0% -5% 行 游、入境游多点开花。“南北互跨”游趋势明显,“北上看 -10% 业 雪”和“南下避寒”贯穿春节假期,冰雪游、年俗游热度高 -15% -20% 跟 涨,各地景区表现亮眼。免税行业迎来新年开门红,在促消 -25% -30% 踪 费政策刺激和旅游热潮的影响下,海南免税销售表现亮眼, -35% -40% 报 国内免税市场潜力较大,免税龙头今年业绩可 ...