[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 02 月 09 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（0127-0209） 特斯拉开启机器人制造岗位招聘， Figure 即将展示颠覆性成果 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：邰桂龙 执业证号：S1250521050002 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：周鑫雨 执业证号：S1250523070008 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：zxyu@swsc.com.cn 联系人：叶明辉 电话：13909990246 邮箱：ymh@swsc.com.cn | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 440 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 35,794.85 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 34,840.90 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 32.6 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 12.5 | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_QuotePic] 行业相 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 02 月 09 日 证券研究报告•宏观简评报告 数据点评 春节错月叠加油价走高，CPI 超预期上行 ——2025 年 1 月通胀数据点评 点评 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：叶凡 执业证号：S1250520060001 电话：010-57631106 邮箱：yefan@swsc.com.cn 分析师：刘彦宏 执业证号：S1250523030002 电话：010-55758502 邮箱：liuyanhong@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 [Table_Summary] CPI 同比超预期扩大，非食品价格强于季节性。同比来看，2025 年 1 月，春 节效应推动服务和食品价格上涨，叠加春节错位影响，CPI同比较上月走扩 0.4 个百分点至 0.5%，超过市场一致预期。其中，1月食品价格同比由下降 0.5% 转为上涨 0.4%，非食品价格同比涨幅扩大 0.3个百分点至 0.5%；环比来看， 1 月 CPI 环比由上月持平转为上涨 0.7%，环比增速略高于近十年以来同期平 均上涨 0.68%的水平 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 02 月 07 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（1.28-2.7） 商品房成交暖意延续，物价同比去年春节走低 摘要 [Table_Summary] 假日高频数据 上游：原油价格周环比下降，铁矿石、阴极铜价格较节前回升。截至 2月 6日， 当周布伦特原油现货均价周环比下降 2.46%，WTI 原油现货均价周环比下降 1.49%，特朗普关税政策加剧市场对全球经济复苏前景担忧，叠加美国原油库 存意外增加，国际油价走低。截至 2月 6日，当周阴极铜、铁矿石均价分别较 节前（1月 20日-27日）升高 0.13%和 0.71%。截至 2月 5日，当周 CRB 现 货综合指数均值为 543.99，周环比上升 0.43%。 中游：螺纹钢价格较节前上涨，水泥价格较节前回落，动力煤价格持平节前。 截至 2 月 6 日，本周螺纹钢日均价为 3482 元/吨，较春节前日均价（1 月 20 日-27日）环比上涨 0.24%，本周水泥价格指数日均为 120.86，较春节前一周 （1月 20日-24日）环比下降 0.92%，本周秦皇岛港动力煤平仓日均价为 753 元/吨，持平 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a decline in public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector, with a total public fund holding ratio of 8.85%, down by 0.94 percentage points from the previous quarter [10][11]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has seen a decrease in public fund holdings, particularly in active pharmaceutical funds and index funds, with significant declines in their respective holding ratios [10][11]. - The top five stocks by the number of public fund holdings are Heng Rui Medicine (432 funds), Mai Rui Medical (354 funds), WuXi AppTec (255 funds), Renfu Medicine (165 funds), and Kelun Pharmaceutical (136 funds) [3][25]. - The report highlights a notable increase in holdings for WuXi AppTec (+65 funds) and Renfu Medicine (+44 funds), indicating growing interest in these companies [3][25]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - The total public fund holding ratio for the pharmaceutical sector is 8.85%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [10]. - Excluding active pharmaceutical funds, the holding ratio is 3.80%, down by 2.83 percentage points [10]. - The holding ratio after excluding both active and index funds is 0.41%, down by 5.16 percentage points [10]. - The market capitalization ratio of the Shenwan pharmaceutical sector is 6.06%, down by 0.64 percentage points [10]. Sector Performance - The top five stocks by total market value held by public funds are Mai Rui Medical (30.95 billion), Heng Rui Medicine (29.87 billion), WuXi AppTec (21.46 billion), United Imaging Healthcare (10.9 billion), and Aier Eye Hospital (8.92 billion) [3][10]. - The report notes significant increases in market value for WuXi AppTec (+2.1 billion) and Renfu Medicine (+1.92 billion) [3][10]. Sub-industry Analysis - The report identifies the top three sub-industries with increased public fund holdings: pharmaceutical research outsourcing (10.7%, +2.1 percentage points), medical devices (6.7%, +1.5 percentage points), and blood products (1.1%, +0.5 percentage points) [4][15]. - Conversely, the sub-industries with the largest declines include chemical preparations (15.5%, -3.9 percentage points), medical consumables (2.2%, -1.8 percentage points), and hospitals (2.0%, -0.7 percentage points) [4][15]. Foreign Investment - Foreign investment in the pharmaceutical sector has slightly decreased, with foreign holdings accounting for 2.75% of the total market capitalization, down by 0.06 percentage points, totaling 164.9 billion [11][12].

2024年血制品行业跟踪报告（附批签发） 全年人白批次增长14%，价格开始调整 西南证券研究发展中心 2025年2月 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：王彦迪 执业证号：S1250524040001 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：wydi@swsc.com.cn 2024年血制品行业跟踪报告 1 分品种来看批签发数据，人血白蛋白：2024年，人血白蛋白批签发5423批(+14%)，其中国产人白获批1708批(+9%) ，占比为31%，进口人白获批3715批(+17%)，占比为69%。2024Q4人血白蛋白批签发批次为1281批（+11%）。免 疫球蛋白：2024年静丙批签发批次为1308批（+3%）；其他品种如狂免148批(+24%)、破免145批(+12%)。2024Q4 静丙批签发批次为329批，同比增长39%。凝血因子类：2024年凝血因子Ⅷ获批568批(+33%)、PCC获批249批(-18%) 、纤原获批263批(-3%)。2024Q4凝血因子Ⅷ获批154批（+48%）、凝血酶原复合物获批5 ...

Domestic Highlights - In January 2024, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size totaled CNY 74,310.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%[8] - The profit of the manufacturing sector fell by 3.9% year-on-year, attributed to increased costs and insufficient demand[9] - During the Spring Festival travel period, cross-regional passenger flow is expected to reach 4.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%[15] AI Industry Developments - Nvidia's DeepSeek-R1 model was released, marking a significant step for China's AI industry towards internationalization and innovation[10] - By the end of 2023, China's AI core industry scale reached CNY 578.4 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13.9%[12] Capital Market Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for six measures to promote high-quality development in the capital market, aiming to stabilize market conditions[13] - The release of supportive policies is expected to enhance the capital market's recovery, with a focus on increasing long-term capital inflows[14] International Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%, with a low likelihood of rate hikes in the near term[17] - The European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points, indicating ongoing economic challenges in the Eurozone[20] - Trump's administration announced tariffs of 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on Chinese goods, potentially impacting trade dynamics significantly[24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the utility sector, highlighting growth potential, high dividend yields, and diversified investment opportunities for 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the coal price in Qinhuangdao decreased by 115 CNY/ton year-on-year in 2024, leading to improved cost structures for thermal power companies. The thermal power sector is expected to show positive trends in electricity volume, pricing, and costs in 2025, indicating growth potential. The hydropower and nuclear sectors are characterized by stable operations and strong cash flows, maintaining high dividend values. The deepening of domestic electricity market reforms is anticipated to create diversified investment opportunities across the sector [4][5]. Summary by Sections 2024 Industry Review - The utility sector demonstrated defensive capabilities with significant dividend assets. The overall revenue for the electricity sector in the first three quarters of 2024 was 1,462.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.0% to 160.6 billion CNY. The profitability of the electricity sector improved due to a decline in coal prices [15][18]. 2025 Industry Investment Strategy - Thermal Power: The report forecasts stable comprehensive electricity prices for thermal power in 2025, with coal prices expected to trend downward. The utilization hours for thermal power are projected to increase steadily [4][5]. - Hydropower: The sector is expected to attract incremental capital due to its high dividend value in a low-interest-rate environment. The hydropower sector achieved a cumulative return of 23.1% by the end of 2024, outperforming the broader market [4][5]. - Nuclear Power: The approval of new projects is accelerating, with a stable growth outlook for nuclear power companies. The cumulative return for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power reached 43.2% and 36.9%, respectively, in 2024 [4][5]. - Green Energy: The report highlights the recovery of installed capacity development and the deepening of electricity market reforms, which are expected to enhance the investment value of green energy companies [4][5]. Recommended Investment Targets - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity thermal power companies and quality green energy firms with significant subsidy proportions. Specific stocks highlighted include Huaneng International, Huadian International, and China Nuclear Power [4][5].

Core Insights - The report highlights the latest industry allocation strategy, recommending sectors such as banking, agriculture, basic chemicals, home appliances, light manufacturing, and construction materials for February 2025 [1][21]. - The performance of the previous month's portfolio showed a monthly return of -2.58% in January 2025, with an excess return of 0.40% compared to the industry equal-weighted index [1]. - The report also emphasizes the use of two industry rotation models: the similar expected difference model and the dynamic analyst expectation model, both of which have demonstrated strong historical performance [9][22]. Similar Expected Difference Industry Rotation Model - The model aims to identify stocks with similar performance that have not yet experienced significant price increases, using a distance metric based on P/E ratios, ROE, and asset growth rates [10][11]. - Historical backtesting from December 2016 to January 2025 indicates that the similar expected difference factor has a mean Information Coefficient (IC) of 0.11, with a 63.92% success rate in predicting stock performance [12][13]. - The top six stocks selected based on this model achieved an annualized return of 11.75% with a cumulative net value of 2.18, outperforming the market index [15][16]. Dynamic Analyst Expectation Model - This model utilizes changes in consensus earnings forecasts to gauge industry sentiment, scoring based on the direction and magnitude of forecast changes [22]. - Historical performance from December 2016 to January 2025 shows an IC of 0.07 with a 59.79% success rate, indicating its effectiveness in industry selection [23][24]. - The top six stocks from this model yielded an annualized return of 9.12% and a cumulative net value of 1.75, also outperforming the market index [28][29]. ETF Portfolio Construction - The recommended ETF portfolio for February 2025 includes sectors such as banking, home appliances, automobiles, agriculture, and non-ferrous metals, with specific fund codes and shares listed [38]. - The report provides detailed information on various ETFs, including their fund codes and total shares, emphasizing the importance of selecting funds with significant assets [38].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - Domestic holiday data shows steady growth in travel, with a 7.2% year-on-year increase in passenger flow during the first 20 days before the Spring Festival, although this is a slowdown compared to the 14% growth in the same period of 2024 [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%, with inflation progress becoming a focal point for future rate adjustments, indicating a cautious outlook on economic conditions [3] - Trump's announcement of tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China is expected to exert economic pressure, potentially leading to a 0.5% decline in U.S. GDP due to retaliatory tariffs [3] Group 2: Market Strategy and Outlook - The report anticipates a continuation of structural market trends in A-shares, with the recent tariff increases likely to have a limited impact on A-share valuations, as concerns had already been priced in [6] - Key investment themes include opportunities in domestic technology stocks following the release of the DeepSeek model, and sectors with significant overseas production capacity that may not be heavily impacted by new tariffs [6] - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as consumer services, tourism, and retail, which may benefit from policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [6] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend post-holiday, with the central bank's monetary policy likely to support liquidity amid rising tariffs and inflation concerns [5] - The report indicates that the central bank may adopt structural monetary policy tools to stabilize the economy, especially in light of the new tariffs imposed by the U.S. [5] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - The construction materials sector is poised for recovery due to supportive policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, with demand expected to rebound as macroeconomic policies stimulate consumption [10] - The automotive industry is experiencing robust growth in electric vehicle sales, with major brands reporting significant year-on-year increases, indicating strong market competition [14] - The AI sector is witnessing a breakthrough with the launch of the DeepSeek model, which has gained significant traction globally, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape in AI technology [26]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the medical device industry, particularly in life support equipment, but it discusses growth potential and market dynamics, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector. Core Insights - The demand for life support medical devices is increasing due to the aging population and advancements in biomedical engineering and information technology, leading to more integrated, precise, and intelligent monitoring and support technologies [3][5]. - The market for life support devices is projected to reach approximately 14.6 billion in 2024, reflecting a 31% decline from previous years, primarily due to medical corruption issues and delays in equipment replacement programs [23][30]. - The report identifies four key growth dimensions for high domestic production rates in the life support device sector: domestic demand, competitive landscape, export opportunities, and technological advancements [5][8]. Summary by Sections Market Demand - The life support device market is categorized into organ support, monitoring, emergency, and other devices, with significant growth observed in external defibrillators, cardiopulmonary resuscitation devices, electrocardiograms, and ECMO equipment from 2019 to 2022 [3][20]. - The market size for life support devices is expected to be approximately 14.6 billion in 2024, with blood purification devices, monitoring instruments, ventilators, and anesthesia machines accounting for over 75% of the market share [28][30]. Competitive Landscape - The domestic production rate for life support devices is around 65% in 2024, with ECMO devices still having significant room for domestic replacement [5][8]. - Major domestic brands include Mindray (27.4%), Comen (6.8%), and Weigao (3.9%), with varying levels of market penetration across different device categories [5][8]. Export Opportunities - The export scale for medical devices is projected to be 96.3 billion in 2024, with a decline of 6.6% attributed to trade policies and the pandemic's impact on demand [8]. - Key export markets include the United States (24%), Germany (7%), and Japan (6%), with significant opportunities in Southeast Asia due to improved logistics and transportation connections [8]. Technological Advancements - The integration of AI and digital technologies is expected to enhance the monitoring and treatment capabilities of life support devices, with Mindray leading the way in developing AI models for critical care [8]. - The ECMO market is projected to reach approximately 700 million in 2024, with a significant increase in domestic production rates and technological advancements in key components [8].