专题1："不同寻常"的黄金牛市（2025/2/9） 本篇是我们《全球货币变局》系列专题的第二篇。在第一篇专题中，我们详细介绍了货币的本质和进化历史，得出结论：一种货币之所以能够成为人们认可的 货币，其本身是否有内在价值并不重要，到底是由中心化的主体发行、还是非中心化的主体形成也不重要，最关键的是这种货币能否成为"社会共识"的"记账 工具"，而社会共识的形成主要是源于人们对货币保持相对稀缺性的信任。所以法定纸币主要依靠政府的信用背书，由政府来保证纸币的相对稀缺性。 但经济面临下行压力的时候，纸币的超发是经常会发生的。所以人们往往会寻求信用更强的货币来对冲本币的贬值压力。而黄金是其中一个非常重要的货币， 所以过去黄金和纸币的基本面之间表现出较强的负相关关系。 但从2022年以来，黄金和纸币超发的对应关系逐步失灵了。那么这种对应关系为何会失灵？黄金的定价框架有何变化？本轮黄金的牛市有何不同？ 本篇专题 我们将延续前面对货币本质的讨论，重点聚焦黄金定价框架的历史性变化。 风险提示： 全球地缘风险；全球经济变化。 专题2：黄金多大空间：一个参考的数量模型（2025/3/28） 我们在 《"不同寻常"的黄金牛市——全球货 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The precious metals and industrial metals sectors are significant within the non-ferrous industry, characterized by product homogeneity, price cyclicality, and resource oligopoly [2][3][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Cost Control and Competition**: Due to product homogeneity, competition among companies primarily revolves around cost advantages, as prices are standardized [3] - **Price Cyclicality**: Prices of precious and industrial metals exhibit strong cyclicality, influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, including demand, inventory, and macroeconomic expectations [4] - **Resource Oligopoly**: The scarcity of high-quality mining resources allows companies with superior management to maintain market dominance [5] - **Industry Value Chain**: The non-ferrous industry is segmented into five categories: mining service companies, mining enterprises, smelters, processing plants, and traders, each with distinct profit sources [6] - **Market Size Variability**: There are significant differences in market sizes among industrial products, with copper and aluminum having larger outputs compared to tin and nickel [8] - **Pricing Factors**: Copper pricing is heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions, while aluminum's domestic demand is more significant. Precious metals like gold are primarily priced based on real interest rates [9][10] Important but Overlooked Content - **Long-term Price Drivers for Gold**: Factors supporting long-term gold price increases include central bank purchases, U.S. Treasury issuance, and rising global ETF holdings [22][23] - **Copper's Dual Attributes**: Copper's pricing is affected by both its financial attributes (global liquidity, interest rates) and commodity attributes (supply-demand dynamics) [24][25] - **Economic Cycle Impact on Copper Prices**: Historical analysis shows that copper prices have fluctuated significantly across different economic cycles, with various factors influencing its performance [27] - **Copper-Gold Ratio**: The copper-gold ratio serves as an indicator of market expectations regarding future economic conditions, with a declining ratio suggesting economic weakness [33] Conclusion - The analysis indicates a complex interplay between macroeconomic factors, industry dynamics, and specific commodity attributes that shape the pricing and competitive landscape of precious and industrial metals. The insights provided can guide investment strategies and risk assessments in the non-ferrous metals sector.

Group 1 - The diversification of the gold pricing framework indicates that different factors dominate at various stages, with traditional assets like US stocks, bonds, and the dollar providing insufficient explanations for the recent surge in gold prices [4][25]. - The long-term bullish trend for gold is supported by the increasing proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves, particularly as developing countries align their gold reserves with those of developed nations, driven by ongoing central bank purchases [5][43]. - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by market sentiment and the dynamics of US asset sales, with a focus on the support level around $3,150 per ounce [6][51]. Group 2 - The traditional framework for gold pricing has shown significant deviations, with actual interest rates not contributing to gold price increases as expected, and declining expectations for interest rate cuts having limited impact [12][16]. - Central bank purchases of gold have been a more significant driver of gold prices compared to ETF buying, indicating a divergence in trends since 2023 [32][35]. - The return of gold as a backing asset for trade is suggested, particularly in light of challenges to the dollar's credit, reminiscent of the dynamics seen during the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system [36][43]. Group 3 - Short-term gold price movements are closely tied to the selling of US assets and fluctuations in trading sentiment, with a noted inverse relationship between short positions on US assets and gold prices [50][51]. - The anticipated short-term volatility in gold prices is expected to last around two months, with a focus on the $3,150 to $3,500 range as market conditions evolve [51][59]. - Key indicators to monitor for future gold price movements include Japanese bond selling, US economic performance, and VIX data, which reflect the pricing of US asset sales and geopolitical tensions [55][60].

Group 1 - The report discusses the rapid increase in gold prices following unexpected tariff policies on April 2, 2025, with London gold briefly surpassing $3,500 per ounce before retreating to $3,300 due to fluctuating tariff attitudes from Trump [5][8] - The report emphasizes the strategic recommendation to gradually overweight gold in global asset allocation, highlighting its potential for a trend-driven upward trajectory [5][8] - The analysis indicates that gold's recent price surge is characterized by increased volatility, driven by physical demand, Asian capital inflows, and a significant decline in the US dollar index [5][11][24] Group 2 - The report forecasts a favorable allocation window for gold prices after short-term adjustments, with a projected price range of $3,209 to $3,905 per ounce for 2025 [26][50] - It identifies key factors influencing gold prices, including global central bank gold reserves, US fiscal deficit rates, economic policy uncertainty, and the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds [48][49] - The report highlights the ongoing trend of global central banks increasing gold purchases, particularly in the context of declining dollar credibility [36][37]

01 再创新高，黄金近期为何大涨？ 回顾黄金的定价框架： ①金融属性：10Y美债实际利率作为持有黄金的机会成本，与黄金价格显 著负相关。②避险属性：金融、经济、地缘政治出现大幅波动或危机时往往提升黄金避险需求，带来 风险溢价。③货币属性：黄金对美元体系有一定的替代性，美元信用削弱将利好黄金。 自我们24年初提示黄金配置机会以来，金价屡创新高！ 近期，由于市场对美国经济前景的担忧日 益加剧，特别是随着特朗普政府可能实施的破坏性贸易政策引发市场不确定性，黄金作为避险资产的 需求显著增加。 戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 法律声明 请向下滑动参见广发证券股份有限公司有关微信推送内容的完整 详见：24.3.1 《 债务周期下的资产配置-避险资产篇——"债务周期大局观"系列（四） 》 24.7.17《 金价再创新高，还有上车机会吗？》 24.9.13 《 黄金、利率债双双新高之际 》 24.10.23 《 金价再创新高，坚定"黄金信仰"！ 》 25.1.31 《戴康：黄金为何是新投资范式的基石配置 ？ 》 25.3.15 《戴康：黄金破3000之 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the recent surge in gold prices, driven by increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid growing concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and potential disruptive trade policies from the Trump administration [3][7] - The pricing framework of gold is outlined, highlighting its financial attributes, safe-haven characteristics, and monetary properties, particularly its inverse relationship with the 10-year U.S. Treasury real interest rates [3] - Since the beginning of 2024, gold prices have consistently reached new highs, indicating a strong market sentiment towards gold as a protective investment [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential for further increases in gold prices, suggesting that gold functions as a sovereign credit asset and a non-interest-bearing bond, which is reinforced by geopolitical risks and concerns over U.S. debt issues [7] - The ongoing demand from central banks for gold is expected to support its price in the medium to long term, as the erosion of U.S. dollar credit continues [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the recent surge in gold prices, driven by increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid growing concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and potential disruptive trade policies from the Trump administration [1][3]. - The pricing framework of gold is outlined, highlighting its financial attributes, safe-haven characteristics, and monetary properties, which are significantly influenced by factors such as the 10Y U.S. Treasury real interest rates and the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credit [1]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the company has consistently suggested opportunities for gold allocation, noting that gold prices have reached new highs [1]. Group 2 - The article discusses the long-term outlook for gold, suggesting that ongoing concerns regarding U.S. debt and geopolitical risks will continue to support gold prices, reinforcing the belief in gold as a sovereign credit alternative [3]. - The demand for gold from central banks is mentioned as a supportive factor for gold prices in the medium to long term, alongside the potential erosion of U.S. dollar credit due to debt issues [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the traditional framework of real interest rates has significantly influenced gold pricing over the past two decades, but this framework has failed post-2022, leading to substantial investor losses [2][15][17] - A new three-factor model for long-term gold pricing has been developed, incorporating deviations in debt-to-equity ratios, excess deficit rates, and real interest rates, indicating that current gold prices may be overvalued [4][35][36] - The report discusses the historical peaks of gold prices, attributing them to geopolitical events and economic policies, which have led to significant fluctuations in gold pricing [42][46][58] Group 2 - The report identifies signs of a loosening global credit monetary system, with the U.S. debt divergence risk indicator showing a positive correlation between U.S. bond yields and gold prices, suggesting an upward shift in gold's central tendency [21][22][24] - It notes a shift in the relationship between gold and Japanese interest rate expectations from negative to positive, indicating that Japan's monetary policy normalization is boosting gold prices [25][28] - The report raises concerns about fiscal risks in the Eurozone, particularly in France, where the debt-to-GDP ratio is nearing critical levels, leading to increased market anxiety about fiscal stability [29][31][34] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the need to explore new factors influencing gold prices post-2024, as the relationship between interest rate expectations and gold prices has shown signs of divergence [19][20] - It discusses the implications of a potential gold revaluation account in the U.S., which could alleviate debt pressure by revaluing the substantial gold reserves held by the Treasury [69]