期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 2 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：仍有反弹动力 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：关注央行购债规模 4 | | 蛋白粕：国际大豆供应压力增加 | 盘面逐步回落 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大跌 | 国内糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏强，盘面高位震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏节奏放缓 | 猪价小幅反弹 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面高位震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价稳定为主 10 | | 苹果：库存较低 | 苹果基本面偏强 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 | 棉价震荡为主 12 | | 铅：区间震荡 23 | | --- | | 镍：减产刺激镍价反弹 库存压制高度 24 | | 不锈钢：供需两弱 等待宏观刺激 25 | | 工业硅：区间震荡，逢高沽空 26 | | 多晶硅：短期偏强，警惕冲高回落 26 | | 碳酸锂：长线回调充分买入 27 | | 锡：供需紧平衡，锡价或高位震荡 27 | ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the traditional framework of real interest rates has significantly influenced gold pricing over the past two decades, but this framework has failed post-2022, leading to substantial investor losses [2][15][17] - A new three-factor model for long-term gold pricing has been developed, incorporating deviations in debt-to-equity ratios, excess deficit rates, and real interest rates, indicating that current gold prices may be overvalued [4][35][36] - The report discusses the historical peaks of gold prices, attributing them to geopolitical events and economic policies, which have led to significant fluctuations in gold pricing [42][46][58] Group 2 - The report identifies signs of a loosening global credit monetary system, with the U.S. debt divergence risk indicator showing a positive correlation between U.S. bond yields and gold prices, suggesting an upward shift in gold's central tendency [21][22][24] - It notes a shift in the relationship between gold and Japanese interest rate expectations from negative to positive, indicating that Japan's monetary policy normalization is boosting gold prices [25][28] - The report raises concerns about fiscal risks in the Eurozone, particularly in France, where the debt-to-GDP ratio is nearing critical levels, leading to increased market anxiety about fiscal stability [29][31][34] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the need to explore new factors influencing gold prices post-2024, as the relationship between interest rate expectations and gold prices has shown signs of divergence [19][20] - It discusses the implications of a potential gold revaluation account in the U.S., which could alleviate debt pressure by revaluing the substantial gold reserves held by the Treasury [69]