Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking industry, suggesting a stable and improving environment for investments [1]. Core Insights - The banking sector showed a strong start in 2025, with a significant increase in credit issuance, indicating robust demand and a positive economic signal [6][68]. - The overall performance of the A-share banking sector was weaker compared to the broader market, with a 3.06% increase, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.73 percentage points [17][20]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring macroeconomic policies and their impact on the banking sector, especially with the upcoming national meetings [6][64]. Summary by Sections 1. Banking Sector Performance - The A-share banking sector's performance from January 16 to February 15, 2025, was 3.06%, underperforming the CSI 300's 3.79% and the overall A-share market's 6.35% [17][18]. - Among the banking sub-sectors, state-owned banks performed the best with a 3.54% increase, while joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks had increases of 2.61%, 1.09%, and 1.19%, respectively [20][21]. 2. Key Financial Metrics - As of February 14, 2025, the banking sector's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 5.87, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio was 0.61, both near the historical average [25][32]. - The banking sector's dividend yield was reported at 5.82%, indicating a strong return for investors [29][30]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - During the analysis period, 29 out of 42 banking stocks increased in value, with Changsha Bank leading at a 7.68% increase, while CITIC Bank had the largest decline at -4.15% [34][39]. - The top five performing stocks included Changsha Bank, Qilu Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, while the bottom five included CITIC Bank and Suzhou Bank [34][39]. 4. Market Trends and Fund Flows - Post-Spring Festival, market liquidity improved significantly, with average daily trading volume rising to 17,012.11 billion yuan, reflecting increased investor confidence [46][48]. - The report notes a slight decrease in the proportion of active equity funds invested in the banking sector, although it remains relatively high compared to other sectors [51][52]. 5. Economic Indicators - In January 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 5.13 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations and indicating strong credit demand [6][68]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth in medium to long-term loans, particularly if the real estate market stabilizes [6][64].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking industry, suggesting a stable and improving environment for investments [1]. Core Insights - The banking sector showed a strong start in credit growth for 2025, with new RMB loans reaching 5.13 trillion yuan in January, exceeding market expectations [6][68]. - The overall performance of the A-share banking sector was weak during the analysis period, with a growth of 3.06%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.73 percentage points [17][20]. - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in corporate medium to long-term loans, supported by forthcoming macroeconomic policies and a recovering real estate market [6][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Banking Sector Performance - The A-share banking sector's performance was below the broader market, with a 3.06% increase compared to 6.35% for all A-shares [17][18]. - Among the banking sub-sectors, state-owned banks performed the best with a 3.54% increase, while joint-stock banks and city commercial banks lagged behind [20][21]. 2. Individual Stock Performance - Out of 42 banking stocks, 29 saw price increases, with Changsha Bank leading at a 7.68% rise, while CITIC Bank experienced the largest decline at -4.15% [34][39]. - The top five performing stocks included Changsha Bank, Qilu Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, while the worst performers were CITIC Bank and Suzhou Bank [34][39]. 3. High-Frequency Indicators - Market liquidity improved post-Spring Festival, with average daily trading volume rising to 17,012.11 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [46][48]. - The proportion of active equity funds holding banking stocks decreased slightly but remained relatively high, with a 4.55% allocation to the banking sector as of February 14, 2025 [51]. 4. Financial Data - In January 2025, the total social financing increased by 7.06 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans contributing significantly to this growth [64][68]. - The report notes that the banking sector's average price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) was 5.87, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages [25]. 5. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on banks in regions benefiting from policy catalysts, such as Chengdu Bank and Chongqing Bank, as well as joint-stock banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank [6][41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Aima Technology (603529) with a target price of 50.76 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 41.47 CNY [1]. Core Views - Aima Technology is positioned as a leader in the electric two-wheeler market, with a clear growth trajectory anticipated due to favorable industry policies and market dynamics. The implementation of new national standards and trade-in policies in 2025 is expected to drive significant sales growth in the industry, with an estimated 574.83 million units sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [6]. - The company is expanding its product offerings into high-margin leisure tricycles, which currently have a low penetration rate of 4.3% among target demographics, indicating substantial growth potential [6]. - Aima is also strategically entering overseas markets, particularly in Indonesia and Vietnam, where there is a trend of transitioning from gasoline to electric vehicles, thus opening new avenues for long-term growth [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Aima Technology, established in 1999, has evolved through multiple transformation phases, from trade to manufacturing and now to a technology-driven company focused on smart solutions for green transportation. The company has a robust manufacturing base across several provinces in China and aims to provide comprehensive mobility solutions [17][19]. Industry Analysis - The electric two-wheeler market is characterized by strong demand driven by urbanization and the need for convenient short-distance transportation. The market is expected to grow significantly, with electric bicycles making up 88% of the total two-wheeler sales in China [25][28]. - The industry is moving towards higher quality standards, with the new national standards set to enhance safety and performance, thereby increasing the overall market quality and concentration [36][47]. Financial Analysis - Aima's revenue is projected to grow from 210.36 billion CNY in 2023 to 311.99 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% expected for net profit from 2024 to 2026 [2][6]. - The company's net profit margin is anticipated to improve, supported by the expansion of high-margin products and increased market share in both domestic and international markets [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a net profit of 24.28 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.59%. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 19 in 2023 to 12 by 2026, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 50.76 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 41.47 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the electric two-wheeler market, with a clear growth trajectory expected due to favorable policies and market conditions. The implementation of new national standards and trade-in policies in 2025 is anticipated to drive significant sales growth in the industry [6][17]. - The company is expected to benefit from a projected industry sales increase to 57.48 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% [6]. - The company is expanding its product offerings into high-margin leisure tricycles, which currently have a low penetration rate of 4.3% among target demographics, indicating substantial growth potential [6]. - The company is also strategically entering overseas markets, particularly in Indonesia and Vietnam, where there is a trend of transitioning from gasoline to electric vehicles, thus opening new growth avenues [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been a pioneer in the electric two-wheeler industry since its establishment in 1999, transitioning through various phases of development and focusing on digital transformation and international expansion [17][19]. Industry Analysis - The electric two-wheeler market is characterized by strong demand driven by urbanization and the need for convenient short-distance transportation. The market is expected to grow significantly due to new regulations and policies promoting electric vehicles [25][28]. - The industry is moving towards higher quality standards, with the new national standards set to enhance safety and performance requirements for electric bicycles [47][48]. Financial Analysis - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 210.36 billion CNY in 2023 to 311.99 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% expected for net profit from 2024 to 2026 [2][6]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to remain strong, with a slight decline from 24.37% in 2023 to 21.47% by 2026, reflecting ongoing profitability despite increased competition [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report anticipates a significant increase in the company's electric two-wheeler sales, reaching 11.497 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [6]. - The company is valued at 18 times its earnings for 2025, supporting the target price of 50.76 CNY [6].

Core Insights - The report highlights a global risk-on sentiment emerging after tariff shocks, with A-shares, non-ferrous metals, and gold regaining confidence, reminiscent of the Q2 2024 market atmosphere [3] - Current macroeconomic conditions differ significantly from Q2 2024, with the global economy in a more fragile state, as evidenced by the global credit pulse peaking in Q2 2024 and a rapid decline in manufacturing sentiment [3][4] - The report suggests that the recent rebound in global risk assets is primarily driven by market fatigue regarding tariffs, particularly after the introduction of "gradual tariffs" in mid-January, which led to a nearly 10% increase in European stocks over the past month [3] Economic Environment - The U.S. economy is maintaining a delicate balance, with mixed signals from employment data and service sector PMI, indicating some underlying weakness [3] - The report draws parallels to the 2014-2015 credit pulse downturn, suggesting that while there may be short-term rebounds in commodities, the overall trend is likely to remain downward [3][4] - The report emphasizes caution regarding energy and industrial metals, while suggesting a more favorable outlook for agricultural products, particularly cotton, due to a projected 14% decrease in U.S. cotton planting area [3][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on agricultural products, particularly cotton, as the U.S. cotton planting intentions indicate a significant reduction, which could drive prices higher during the demand peak in March and April [3][7] - It is advised to remain vigilant regarding the macroeconomic backdrop, as the dollar has not yet broken previous support levels, and U.S. Treasury yields continue to indicate economic pressures [3][6]

202X`[Table_ReportInfo] 5 年 02 月 16 日 证券研究报告•市场周评 北交所双周报（2.5-2.14） 开年来北证 50 指数涨 16.3%，北交所业绩快报接连出炉 数据来源：同花顺 iFind | 基础数据（ [Table_QuotePic] 2.5-2.14） | | | --- | --- | | 成分股个数 | 264 | | 总市值（亿元） | 6501.09 | | 公司平均市值（亿元） | 24.63 | | 板块区间交易金额（亿元） | 2335.61 | | 平均周交易金额（亿元） | 8.85 | | 区间换手率（%） | 69.55 | 相关研究 摘要 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：刘言 执业证号：S1250515070002 电话：023-67791663 邮箱：liuyan@swsc.com.cn 联系人：李艾莼 电话：17396222897 邮箱：liac@swsc.com.cn [板块相对指数表现 Table_QuotePic] -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 24-02 24-03 24-04 ...

Group 1: Social Financing Overview - In January 2025, the total social financing stock increased by 8% year-on-year, maintaining the growth rate from the end of 2024[3] - The social financing increment for January was 70,600 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations and up by 5,866 billion RMB compared to the same period last year[3] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 52,200 billion RMB, which is 3,799 billion RMB more than the same month last year, ending a 14-month streak of year-on-year declines[3] Group 2: Financing Structure Improvement - In January 2025, RMB loans accounted for approximately 73.94% of the total social financing increment, up by 44.5 percentage points from December 2024[3] - New direct financing was 11,860 billion RMB, representing only 16.8% of the total, a decrease of 46 percentage points from December 2024[3] - Government bonds supported direct financing, with an increase of 3,986 billion RMB year-on-year, totaling 6,933 billion RMB in January[3] Group 3: Corporate and Household Lending - Corporate loans increased by 47,800 billion RMB in January, with short-term loans rising by 17,400 billion RMB, reflecting demand for year-end payments[4] - Household loans increased by 4,438 billion RMB, but this was a decrease of 5,363 billion RMB year-on-year, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival[4] - The issuance of local government bonds in January was 5,576 billion RMB, a decrease of 5,337 billion RMB month-on-month but an increase of 1,731 billion RMB year-on-year[3] Group 4: Monetary Supply and Deposits - In January 2025, RMB deposits increased by 43,200 billion RMB, a decrease of 11,600 billion RMB year-on-year[5] - M2 growth was 7.0%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and 1.7 percentage points from the same month last year[5] - M1 growth was 0.4%, with a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and a decline of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year[5]

Domestic Economic Policies - The Chinese government continues to adopt a moderately loose monetary policy to stimulate consumption and stabilize foreign investment[1] - The State Council approved the "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment" to address structural contradictions in key industries[1] - Shanghai's government has implemented a comprehensive policy package to support economic growth in Q1 2025, aiming for a GDP growth target of around 5%[12] Inflation and Consumer Trends - January's CPI in the U.S. increased by 3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in March[21] - The New York Fed's survey indicates that U.S. consumers expect inflation to remain at 3% for the next year and three years, with a rise in five-year inflation expectations to 3%[19] - In China, the government is focusing on enhancing consumer income and promoting consumption in key sectors, with a projected increase in consumer spending due to policies like "trade-in for new" initiatives[11] Commodity Prices and Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices rose by 0.79% week-on-week, while copper and iron ore prices increased by 1.62% and 1.02%, respectively[27] - In contrast, the price index for thermal coal decreased by 0.83%, and rebar prices fell by 0.65% week-on-week[31] - OPEC forecasts global oil demand to increase by 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025, maintaining previous estimates despite potential trade uncertainties[24]

Domestic Economic Policies - The Chinese government is continuing a moderately loose monetary policy to boost consumption and stabilize foreign investment, with a focus on enhancing residents' income and consumption capacity[1] - The State Council has approved the "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment," aiming to address structural contradictions in key industries and promote high-quality economic development[1] - Shanghai has introduced a comprehensive policy package to support economic recovery, targeting a GDP growth of around 5% for 2025[1] Inflation and Consumer Trends - January's CPI in the U.S. rose by 3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider the pace of interest rate cuts[2] - U.S. consumer inflation expectations for the next year and three years remain at 3%, while five-year expectations have increased from 2.7% to 3%[2] - In China, the first week of February saw a significant increase in real estate sales, with a week-on-week rise of 89.32%[4] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.79% week-on-week, while copper and iron ore prices rose by 1.62% and 1.02%, respectively[4] - In contrast, the price index for thermal coal decreased by 0.83%, and rebar and cement prices fell by 0.65% and 0.09% respectively[4] Global Economic Outlook - OPEC forecasts a global oil demand increase of 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025, driven by growth in air and road transport[2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates may be influenced by rising inflation and economic strength, with a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in March[2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the vaccine industry Core Insights - The overall situation for the vaccine industry in FY2024 shows a decline in the number of batches approved for most vaccine types, with some exceptions showing recovery [7] - Key vaccine types such as multi-combination vaccines, pneumonia vaccines, and HPV vaccines have experienced significant changes in their approval batches compared to previous years [3][29][31] Summary by Sections Multi-Combination Vaccines - In FY2024, the number of approved batches for multi-combination vaccines increased, with five-combination and four-combination vaccines showing growth [3][12] - The total approved batches for multi-combination vaccines reached 127, marking an 11% increase [12] Pneumonia Vaccines - The total approved batches for pneumonia vaccines decreased by 27% in FY2024, with 110 batches approved [18] - The 13-valent pneumonia vaccine saw a 23% decline, while the 23-valent pneumonia vaccine experienced a 34% drop [22][26] HPV Vaccines - The total approved batches for HPV vaccines fell by 64% in FY2024, totaling 195 batches [31] - The two-valent HPV vaccine saw a significant decline, with 89 batches approved, including a 78% drop for WanTai Biologics [31][34] Influenza Vaccines - The total approved batches for influenza vaccines decreased by 11% in FY2024, with 303 batches approved [38] - The four-valent influenza vaccine saw a 36% decline, totaling 166 batches approved [44] Rabies Vaccines - The total approved batches for rabies vaccines increased by 9% in FY2024, reaching 777 batches [51] - The growth was driven by the shift from liquid to freeze-dried products, with Chengda Biologics leading the market [54] Varicella Vaccines - The total approved batches for varicella vaccines decreased by 8% in FY2024, totaling 274 batches [60] - BaiKe Biologics held the largest market share with 98 batches approved [60] Hib Vaccines - The total approved batches for Hib vaccines fell by 5% in FY2024, with 37 batches approved [67] - Notably, Minhai Biologics increased its approved batches by 175% [68] EV71 Vaccines - The total approved batches for EV71 vaccines decreased by 17% in FY2024, totaling 73 batches [72] Rotavirus Vaccines - The total approved batches for rotavirus vaccines dropped by 29% in FY2024, with 109 batches approved [76] Meningitis Vaccines - The total approved batches for meningitis vaccines decreased by 13% in FY2024, totaling 414 batches [87] - The AC polysaccharide vaccine saw an increase in approved batches by 11% [92] Hepatitis B Vaccines - The total approved batches for hepatitis B vaccines increased by 35% in FY2024, reaching 332 batches [101] IPV Vaccines - The total approved batches for IPV vaccines decreased by 33% in FY2024, totaling 283 batches [103]