业绩快报[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 03 月 14 日 证券研究报告•2024年业绩快报&2025Q1 业绩预告点评 佐力药业（300181）医药生物 目标价：——元（6 个月） 买入 （维持） 当前价：15.41 元 受益于集采以价换量业绩表现亮眼，百令胶囊成功上市 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2025Q1 业绩预告和 2024年业绩快报，2024 年全年公司实现 营业总收入 25.8亿元，同比增长 32.8%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 5.05 亿 元，同比增长 31.8%，其中股权激励费用 569.8万元。2025 年第一季度归属于 上市公司股东的净利润为 1.8亿- 1.9亿元，同比增长 25.0%-32.7%，若剔除股 份支付费用影响（约 700万元），归母净利润增速将提升至 29.9%-37.6%，公司 核心业务增长动力强劲。 乌灵胶囊:受益于集采以价放量+小包装换大包装+省份拓展，收入稳健增长。乌 灵胶囊为公司核心产品，近年来该产品在城市公立医院和县级公立医院市场份额 排名均为第一。2024年乌灵系列实现营业收入 14.4亿元，同比增长 17.1%，其 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has received approval for the first global Trop2 ADC lung cancer indication, which aligns with previous expectations [7] - The expansion of indications is favorable for commercialization in China, with the company expected to participate in the 2025 national medical insurance negotiations [7] - The potential of the product is gradually being realized, with ongoing global phase III studies for additional lung cancer indications [7] - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for the company's product commercialization, with several products expected to be approved [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 1,540.5 million RMB - 2024E: 1,746.8 million RMB (growth rate: 13.4%) - 2025E: 1,836.7 million RMB (growth rate: 5.2%) - 2026E: 2,877.2 million RMB (growth rate: 56.7%) [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be negative, with figures as follows: - 2023A: -574.1 million RMB - 2024E: -350.1 million RMB - 2025E: -434.6 million RMB - 2026E: -286.1 million RMB [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -2.53 in 2023A to -1.26 in 2026E [2] - The company anticipates significant revenue from the product Lukanosatuzumab, with projected sales of 47 million RMB in 2024, 960 million RMB in 2025, and 1,886 million RMB in 2026 [9] Key Assumptions - The company is expected to receive collaboration payments from Merck, totaling approximately 1.7 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026 [8] - The approval of Lukanosatuzumab in November 2024 is anticipated to generate substantial revenue in the following years [8]

Domestic Developments - The National People's Congress emphasized urban renewal, focusing on the renovation of old residential areas, urban village transformations, and the construction of complete communities, aiming to stabilize the real estate market[7] - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of special bonds for land reserves to alleviate liquidity pressure on local governments and real estate companies, supporting market stabilization[9] - Hohhot introduced a childcare subsidy policy providing up to 100,000 yuan for children born after March 1, 2025, aimed at easing childcare costs and boosting birth rates[14] International Developments - The U.S. CPI for February increased by 2.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.9% and the previous 3%, indicating a slowdown in inflation[22] - Germany's industrial output rose by 2.0% month-on-month in January, exceeding expectations, but exports fell significantly, highlighting economic uncertainties[16] - The EU announced countermeasures against U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, targeting goods worth 26 billion euros (approximately 28.3 billion USD)[16] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.13% week-on-week, while copper prices increased by 1.34%[24] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities rose by 14.93% week-on-week, with first-tier cities seeing a 34.53% increase[37] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars in March increased by 14% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand[37]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Convertible Bond K-line Shape Factor **Construction Idea**: Quantify K-line shapes to extract predictive information for convertible bonds, combining price trends and volume trends for enhanced forecasting ability [15][33][96] **Construction Process**: 1. Define single K-line shapes based on absolute values of body, upper shadow, and lower shadow, dividing them into 16 types [22][33][34] 2. Extend to multi-K-line shapes by incorporating relationships between adjacent K-lines, such as gap openings (e.g., high/low opening) [23][24][33] 3. Combine K-line shapes with price trends (e.g., position of closing price in historical range) and volume trends (e.g., shrinking, fluctuating, or increasing volume) for more complete predictive signals [25][33][96] **Formula**: - Single K-line scoring: $score_{p} = \frac{mean(r_{p})}{std(r_{p})}$ where $r_{p}$ represents the future 20-day returns of K-line shape $p$ [34][35] - Multi-K-line scoring: $KP_{c,T} = \sum_{t=T-40}^{T} w_{t} * score_{c,t}$ $w_{t} = 0.5^{\frac{T-t}{\lambda}}$ where $w_{t}$ is the exponential decay weight, $\lambda$ is half the window period [36][37] **Evaluation**: Effective in predicting convertible bond returns, especially post-2022, with stable IC and IR values [97][93][87] Model Backtesting Results - **Convertible Bond K-line Shape Factor**: - IC Mean: 0.11 [87][93][97] - IC Win Rate: 66.31% [87][93][97] - IR: 0.43 [87][93][97] - Group 1 Annualized Return: 6.34% [88][89][97] - Excess Return Win Rate: 70.08% [88][89][97] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Single K-line Shape Factor **Construction Idea**: Quantify single K-line shapes to identify predictive patterns for convertible bonds [22][33][96] **Construction Process**: 1. Divide K-line body, upper shadow, and lower shadow into short/long categories based on absolute thresholds (e.g., body > 2%, shadow > 1%) [22][33][34] 2. Combine these components to form 16 distinct single K-line shapes [22][33][34] **Evaluation**: Certain shapes (e.g., A6, A7) show high predictive power for short-term returns [42][46][54] - **Factor Name**: Multi-K-line Shape Factor **Construction Idea**: Incorporate relationships between adjacent K-lines to enhance predictive accuracy [23][33][96] **Construction Process**: 1. Define relationships such as gap openings (e.g., high/low opening) between adjacent K-lines [23][24][33] 2. Combine these relationships with single K-line shapes to form 768 distinct 2K shapes [24][33][66] **Evaluation**: Certain combinations (e.g., B5 + B3) are strong signals for upward trends [66][69][72] Factor Backtesting Results - **Single K-line Shape Factor**: - A6 Shape: Future 5-day excess return 48.04%, win rate > 60% [54][56][58] - A7 Shape: Future 5-day excess return 67.40%, win rate > 60% [54][56][58] - **Multi-K-line Shape Factor**: - B5 + B3 Shape: Future 5-day excess return 214.74% [66][69][71] - A5 + A6 Shape: Future 5-day excess return 208.06% [66][69][70] Factor Correlation Analysis - **Convertible Bond K-line Shape Factor**: - Correlation with other factors (e.g., implied volatility, YTM) is low, indicating unique information contribution [93][94][97]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) with a current price of 226.67 CNY and a target price not specified for the next six months [1]. Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage achieved strong revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 15.84 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.33 billion CNY, up 63.1% year-on-year [7]. - The company plans to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange, and its overseas business is expected to contribute to long-term excess returns [7]. - The growth in the energy drink segment is driven by the 500ml large Dongpeng product, while the electrolyte drink segment is expanding into new consumption scenarios [7]. - The company has established a diversified product matrix with a "dual-engine + multi-category" approach, enhancing its market presence [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: Revenue of 15.84 billion CNY, net profit of 3.33 billion CNY - 2025E: Revenue of 20.57 billion CNY, net profit of 4.42 billion CNY - 2026E: Revenue of 25.43 billion CNY, net profit of 5.58 billion CNY - 2027E: Revenue of 30.78 billion CNY, net profit of 6.94 billion CNY [2][10]. - **Growth Rates**: - Revenue growth rates are projected at 40.63% for 2024, 29.86% for 2025, 23.62% for 2026, and 21.05% for 2027 [2]. - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 63.09% for 2024, 32.94% for 2025, 26.23% for 2026, and 24.38% for 2027 [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is projected to be 6.40 CNY for 2024, 8.50 CNY for 2025, 10.74 CNY for 2026, and 13.35 CNY for 2027 [2]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 35 in 2024 to 17 in 2027 [2]. - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is projected to decline from 15.32 in 2024 to 6.57 in 2027 [2]. Business Segmentation - **Energy Drinks**: - Revenue of 13.30 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 28.7% [10]. - Expected to maintain a gross margin of 48.3% in 2024, increasing to 52% by 2027 [10]. - **Electrolyte Drinks**: - Revenue of 1.50 billion CNY in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 80% [10]. - Gross margin expected to rise from 29.7% in 2024 to 34% by 2027 [10]. - **Other Beverages**: - Revenue of 1.02 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 22.3% [10]. - Gross margin expected to stabilize at 30% from 2025 onwards [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) with a current price of 226.67 CNY and a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage achieved strong revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 15.84 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.33 billion CNY, up 63.1% year-on-year [7]. - The company plans to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange, and its overseas business is expected to contribute to long-term excess returns [7]. - The growth in the energy drink segment is driven by the 500ml large Dongpeng product, while the electrolyte drink segment is expanding into new consumption scenarios [7]. - The company has successfully optimized its national distribution network, increasing the number of terminal outlets by 500,000 to nearly 4 million [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Dongpeng Beverage's revenue was 15.84 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.33 billion CNY and a cash flow from operations of 20.43 billion CNY, reflecting a 47.0% increase year-on-year [7][16]. - The gross margin improved to 44.8%, with a net profit margin of 21.0%, marking a historical high [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from energy drinks was 13.30 billion CNY, up 28.5% year-on-year, while electrolyte drinks saw a remarkable growth of 280.4% to 1.50 billion CNY [7][10]. - Other beverages contributed 1.02 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 103.2% [7]. Future Projections - Forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of 4.42 billion CNY, 5.58 billion CNY, and 6.94 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 8.50 CNY, 10.74 CNY, and 13.35 CNY [2][10]. - The projected PE ratios for the same period are 27, 21, and 17 [2]. Market Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence outside Guangdong, with revenue from other regions increasing by 49.6% [7]. - The average scale of distributors has improved by 31%, enhancing the overall distribution efficiency [7]. Cost Management - The report highlights a decrease in costs due to lower raw material prices, contributing to improved profitability across all beverage categories [7]. - The gross margin for energy drinks is projected to reach 50% by 2025, while electrolyte drinks are expected to achieve a gross margin of 32% [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) with a current price of 226.67 CNY and a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - Dongpeng Beverage achieved a total revenue of 15.84 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.33 billion CNY, up 63.1% year-on-year. The company plans to list in Hong Kong, and its overseas business is expected to contribute to long-term excess returns [7]. - The company has established a diversified product matrix with a focus on energy drinks and electrolyte beverages, which are expected to drive future growth [7][8]. - The national expansion strategy is progressing well, with significant revenue growth in various regions, particularly outside Guangdong [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 15.84 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.33 billion CNY. The fourth quarter alone saw a revenue of 3.28 billion CNY, a 25.1% increase year-on-year [7]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a net profit of 4.42 billion CNY, 5.58 billion CNY, and 6.94 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 8.50 CNY, 10.74 CNY, and 13.35 CNY [2][10]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from energy drinks reached 13.30 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 28.5%. The electrolyte beverage segment saw a remarkable increase of 280.4%, generating 1.50 billion CNY [7][10]. - The company is also expanding its product offerings in other beverage categories, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in the coming years [9]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin improved to 44.8% in 2024, up 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and increased sales volume [7]. - The net profit margin reached a historical high of 21.0%, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency [7]. Market Expansion - The company has increased its national distribution network, adding 500,000 new retail points, bringing the total to nearly 4 million [7]. - Revenue from regions outside Guangdong grew by 49.6%, indicating successful penetration into new markets [7]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in the energy drink segment, with projected sales growth rates of 26%, 22%, and 20% for 2025-2027 [8]. - The electrolyte beverage segment is expected to become a significant growth driver, with forecasted sales growth rates of 82%, 52%, and 42% over the same period [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company, but it suggests maintaining attention to the stock due to its strong brand competitiveness and stable growth in main business [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 84.0 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.07% [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45.74% [2][7]. - The acquisition of a 51% stake in China Resources Shenghuo in December 2024 significantly enhanced the company's performance, resolving competition issues with its core product [7]. - The company aims to double its revenue by the end of 2028, targeting an industrial revenue of 10 billion yuan [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 87.3 billion yuan, 94.7 billion yuan, and 103.6 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 4%, 9%, and 9% [8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.3 billion yuan, 8.8 billion yuan, and 10.6 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [7][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to increase from 0.86 yuan in 2024 to 1.39 yuan by 2027 [2][10]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: ROE is projected to rise from 11.14% in 2024 to 12.79% in 2027 [2][10]. Business Segment Analysis - **Oral Pharmaceuticals**: Revenue from oral pharmaceuticals is expected to grow from 36.9 billion yuan in 2024 to 56.2 billion yuan by 2027, with a consistent growth rate of 15% [8]. - **Injectable Pharmaceuticals**: Revenue from injectable pharmaceuticals is projected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 5.4 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.2 billion yuan by 2027 [8]. - **Wholesale and Retail**: Revenue from drug wholesale and retail is expected to grow modestly from 36.6 billion yuan in 2024 to 40.3 billion yuan by 2027 [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand value and channel distribution, particularly through partnerships with China Resources [7]. - Continuous investment in R&D, with 1.4 billion yuan allocated in 2024, aims to drive product innovation and improve treatment options for chronic diseases [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests maintaining attention on Kunming Pharmaceutical Group with a target price not specified for the next six months [1]. Core Views - The acquisition of 51% stake in China Resources Sanjiu has significantly enhanced Kunming Pharmaceutical's performance, resolving competition issues and boosting sales of its core product, Xuesaitong soft capsules, which saw an 11.27% year-on-year increase [7]. - The company aims to double its revenue by the end of 2028, targeting 10 billion yuan in industrial revenue, driven by a strategic focus on the aging population and chronic disease treatment [7]. - The report highlights strong growth in Kunming Traditional Chinese Medicine, with a revenue of 809 million yuan and a profit margin of 16% in 2024, supported by enhanced channel strategies and brand value [7]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.401 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.07%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 648.08 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 45.74% [2][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.86 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.14% [2][10]. - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 731.76 million yuan, 884.02 million yuan, and 1.055 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [7][10]. Revenue and Growth Projections - The projected revenue for 2025 is 8.727 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.87%, and for 2026, it is expected to reach 9.473 billion yuan, growing by 8.55% [2][10]. - The report anticipates a continuous increase in sales volume for Xuesaitong soft capsules, with expected growth rates of 15% for the years 2025-2027 [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its product pipeline through R&D investments, with 140 million yuan allocated in 2024, leading to the approval of new drugs for chronic diseases [7]. - The integration with China Resources is expected to further strengthen the company's market position and operational efficiency [7].

[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 03 月 12 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 当前价：17.77 元 昆药集团（600422）医药生物 目标价：——元（6 个月） 并表圣火开启协同，昆中药提质增效显著 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 8401.45 | 8726.76 | 9472.63 | 10356.33 | | 增长率 | 9.07% | 3.87% | 8.55% | 9.33% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 648.08 | 731.76 | 884.02 | 1055.24 | | 增长率 | 45.74% | 12.91% | 20.81% | 19.37% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.86 | 0.97 | 1.17 | 1.39 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 11.14% | 10.60% | 11.77% | 12.79% | | PE | 21 | 1 ...