Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Ministry of Finance plans to increase fiscal policy counter-cyclical adjustments, with a focus on debt reduction and stable growth[1] - A total of CNY 1.2 trillion will be allocated in 2024 to support local governments in resolving debt risks and settling overdue payments[1] - As of September 2023, the total proposed issuance of bonds is approximately CNY 113.286 billion, indicating a potential increase in debt limits to alleviate local government debt issues[1] Group 2: Banking Sector Support - Special government bonds will be issued to support state-owned commercial banks in replenishing their core Tier 1 capital, enhancing their risk resistance and credit issuance capabilities[2] - The net interest margin for commercial banks has dropped to 1.54%, with large banks at 1.46%, indicating significant pressure on bank profitability[2] Group 3: Real Estate Market Stabilization - Fiscal measures will include allowing special bonds for land reserves and purchasing existing residential properties for affordable housing, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market[2] - In August 2023, new residential and second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities fell by 5.7% and 8.6%, respectively, highlighting the ongoing pressure in the real estate sector[2] Group 4: Consumer Support Initiatives - The government has initiated one-time living subsidies for low-income groups and plans to enhance support for students, aiming to boost overall consumption capacity[3] - By 2024, the number of national scholarships will double, and scholarship standards will be raised, targeting high marginal propensity to consume groups[3] Group 5: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The central government's leverage ratio is approximately 24.6%, and local governments at 33.2%, indicating room for policy expansion compared to developed countries[3] - Expectations for increased fiscal deficits and special long-term bonds are anticipated to be discussed in the upcoming National People's Congress meeting in late October 2023[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the robotics industry, indicating expected returns above the market average over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The robotics index underperformed the broader market during the week of October 7 to October 13, with the China Securities Robotics Index declining by 5.6%, trailing the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.0 percentage points [8]. - Tesla's "We Robot" event showcased significant advancements in the Optimus Gen-2 robot, which demonstrated improved fluidity in movement and interaction capabilities, including the ability to perform various tasks such as pouring water and recognizing objects [14][15]. - The establishment of the National Local Co-Built Embodied Intelligent Robot Innovation Center signifies a commitment to advancing the embodied intelligence industry, focusing on innovation and standardization [16]. - Agility Robotics has launched its RoboFab factory, aiming for an annual production capacity of 10,000 units, with initial production already underway [18]. - The report highlights several key players in the humanoid robot hardware sector, including companies involved in components such as actuators, sensors, and motors, indicating potential investment opportunities [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The robotics index experienced a decline of 5.6% during the specified week, underperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [8]. Industry Dynamics - Tesla's event on October 11 featured the Optimus Gen-2 robot, which exhibited enhanced interaction and movement capabilities, with a production cost estimated at $20,000 to $30,000 [14]. - The unveiling of the National Local Co-Built Embodied Intelligent Robot Innovation Center aims to enhance the innovation chain and reduce R&D costs for companies in the sector [16]. - The launch of the KUAVO humanoid robot by Leju Company includes a comprehensive technical framework and open-source resources for developers [16]. - Agility Robotics' RoboFab factory is set to produce 10,000 robots annually, with initial production already in progress [18]. - The collaboration between Fulin Precision and Zhiyuan Robotics marks an entry into the humanoid robot field, focusing on key hardware development [21]. Financing Dynamics - The industrial intelligent robot company Xinghaitu has completed a multi-million dollar angel round financing, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [22].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the recent market pullback does not alter the overall upward trend, driven by a series of macroeconomic policies aimed at countering economic downturns and boosting domestic demand [1][5]. Policy Developments - On October 8, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a comprehensive set of policies focusing on macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustments, enhancing domestic demand, supporting enterprises, stabilizing the real estate market, and boosting capital markets [1]. - A joint working group was established between the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Ministry of Finance to enhance coordination on bond market operations, indicating a potential normalization of PBOC's bond buying in the secondary market [2]. - The PBOC introduced the "Securities, Fund, and Insurance Company Swap Facility" to allow non-bank financial institutions to exchange less liquid assets for high-quality liquid assets, thereby improving their funding capabilities and stabilizing the capital market [3]. Market Trends - The report identifies that the recent market adjustments were influenced by several factors, including holiday effects, regulatory measures aimed at cooling market sentiment, and fiscal policy expectations that did not meet prior market optimism [5]. - The core reason for the market's upward movement is attributed to intensified anti-deflation policies, which are expected to sustain the upward trend in the market [6]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a shift from broad market rallies to a more structural market, focusing on sectors that have been previously undervalued, particularly in domestic consumption, real estate, and new energy [6]. - Quantitative analysis indicates a bullish outlook for equities, with a signal of 4/4, supported by positive economic indicators and monetary easing signals [7]. - The report highlights a significant inflow of funds into specific ETFs, particularly those related to innovative sectors, indicating strong investor confidence in these areas [11]. Sector Analysis - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as home appliances, banking, telecommunications, and defense, which are expected to benefit from current policies and market conditions [9]. - The analysis of active equity fund positions shows a notable increase in allocations towards TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and healthcare sectors, while reducing exposure to consumer and cyclical sectors [10].

Domestic Policy Developments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Ministry of Finance have established a joint working group to enhance coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, with the first meeting held on October 9, 2024[5] - The PBOC has launched the Securities, Fund, and Insurance Company Swap Facility (SFISF) tool, with an initial operation scale of CNY 500 billion, aimed at stabilizing the capital market and enhancing investor confidence[8] - Fixed asset investment in China grew by 3.4% year-on-year from January to August 2024, with expectations for steady growth driven by government investment and the "golden September, silver October" construction season[5] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed significant divisions regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, with a majority supporting a 50 basis point cut, while some favored a more cautious 25 basis point reduction[14] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in September, exceeding market expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[14] - Germany's August exports increased by 1.3% month-on-month, reaching EUR 131.9 billion, but the economic outlook remains bleak with a projected GDP contraction of 0.2% for 2024[13] Commodity Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 3.82% week-on-week, while copper and iron ore prices fell by 1.52% and 1.56%, respectively[16] - The price index for cement rose by 0.51% week-on-week, contrasting with a slight decline in the prices of rebar and thermal coal[20] Investment and Economic Outlook - The draft law on promoting the private economy has been released for public consultation, aiming to stabilize and boost private investment, which saw a 0.2% year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment from January to August 2024[10] - The joint working group's initiatives and the SFISF tool are expected to provide substantial liquidity support, potentially injecting hundreds of billions into the capital market, thereby enhancing market stability[8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home respiratory care industry, particularly for domestic manufacturers like Yihua Jiaye and Meihua Medical, suggesting a favorable investment environment [2][3]. Core Insights - The home respiratory machine market is characterized as a large, slow-growing chronic disease sector with low penetration rates. The global market size is expected to reach approximately $11.2 billion by 2030, driven by increasing awareness and demand for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) diagnosis and treatment [2][3]. - The report highlights the high barriers to entry in the home respiratory machine market, particularly in research and development as well as sales channels. Key factors include product quality, brand reputation, and patient compliance [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for leading domestic companies to expand their market share, particularly Yihua Jiaye, which held an 18% market share in 2022, and Meihua Medical, which benefits from being a key supplier to global leader ResMed [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The global market for home respiratory machines is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% from 2023 to 2025, reaching approximately $7.3 billion by 2030. The consumables market, which includes masks and tubing, is expected to account for about 60% of the total revenue from devices [3][5]. Disease Prevalence - OSA affects a significant portion of the population, with an estimated 936 million people globally suffering from the condition. In China, approximately 176 million individuals are affected, highlighting a substantial unmet medical need [6][10]. Diagnosis and Treatment - The report outlines the low diagnosis rates for OSA, with only about 20% in the U.S. and less than 1% in China. This presents a significant opportunity for market growth as awareness and diagnostic capabilities improve [13][17]. - The report identifies three key stages in the patient journey for OSA: diagnosis, trial period, and ongoing treatment, each requiring different strategies to enhance penetration rates [17][31]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is dominated by a few key players, including ResMed and Yihua Jiaye, with the latter showing strong growth potential due to its expanding product line and technological advancements [46][52]. - The report notes that the U.S. durable medical equipment (DME) market primarily features ResMed and Yihua Jiaye, as they meet Medicare reimbursement criteria and have comprehensive product lines [52][54]. Regulatory Environment - The report discusses the regulatory landscape, noting that obtaining necessary certifications such as FDA approval is crucial for market entry, particularly in the U.S. and European markets [34][54]. Sales and Distribution Models - Different sales models are employed across regions, with subscription and rental options being popular in cash-paying markets, which can enhance patient acceptance and drive demand [40][47].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a strong recovery in demand and profitability for companies in the bulk supply chain sector [2][57]. Core Insights - The bulk supply chain sector has shown significant excess returns during previous cycles, with the raw material supply chain service index outperforming the CSI 300 index by 211.18 percentage points from 2006 to 2008 and by 162.23 percentage points from 2014 to 2015 [2][12]. - The report anticipates an upward trend for the transportation sector, particularly for cyclical bulk supply chain sub-sectors, driven by strong support at the bottom of the commodity market and recovery in industry prosperity [2][57]. - Factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and China's economic recovery are expected to have a sustained impact on commodity prices, leading to improved demand and inventory conditions in the second half of the year [2][40][41]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance - Since 2006, the transportation industry has experienced two cycles, with the first cycle underperforming and the second cycle outperforming the CSI 300 index. The highest increase in the transportation sector was 380.46% from 2006 to 2008 and 234.10% from 2014 to 2015 [9]. - The bulk supply chain sector has consistently delivered excess returns, with notable individual stock performances such as Wuchan Zhongda outperforming the CSI 300 index by 714.75 percentage points during the 2006-2008 cycle [15][12]. Market Dynamics - The bulk supply chain market in China is substantial, with a market size of approximately 55 trillion yuan in 2022, and the concentration of the industry is gradually increasing [32]. - The CR5 market share of leading companies in the bulk supply chain has risen from 4.81% in 2021 to 5.46% in the first half of 2023, indicating a strengthening of the market's top players [32]. Company Analysis - Wuchan Zhongda is highlighted for its strong performance in integrated supply chain services, with significant sales volumes in various commodities, including steel and coal [60]. - Xiamen Xiangyu is noted for its diversified revenue streams, with service and scale benefits being core to its profitability [26]. - Su-meida is positioned as a "supply chain + industry chain" player, aiming for a billion-dollar group through diversified development and investment strategies [62]. - Zhongchu's core warehousing business is stable, with a focus on supply chain integration and significant operational capacity [64]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies that enhance logistics and warehousing capabilities, such as Wuchan Zhongda (600704.SH), Xiamen Guomao (600755.SH), and Xiamen Xiangyu (600057.SH) [2][57]. - Companies with diversified business models, such as Su-meida (600710.SH) and Zhongchu (600787.SH), are also recommended for their potential to empower clients through multi-faceted services [57].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - Eurozone's September harmonized CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, below expectations, indicating easing inflation and potential for a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB in October[4] - Japan's new Prime Minister stated that the economy is not ready for further rate hikes, with expectations for the BoJ to maintain current rates in October[5] - In the U.S., non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, significantly exceeding the expected 150,000, leading to a revision of Fed's rate cut expectations from 50 basis points to 25[7] Group 2: Real Estate Market - During the National Day holiday, there was a significant increase in property viewing and visiting rates, with many cities reporting varying degrees of sales growth, suggesting a potential stabilization in the real estate market[10] - In major cities, property viewing rates increased by over 50% compared to the previous year, with some areas seeing new home sales rise by 569%[11] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Approximately 2.008 billion people traveled across regions during the National Day holiday, with a daily average increase of 4.1% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer travel intent[12] - Consumer spending during the holiday saw a 25.1% year-on-year increase in daily sales revenue across related industries, with significant growth in durable goods[12] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices rose by 5.11% during the holiday period, while WTI prices increased by 5.43%, reflecting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[14] - Agricultural product wholesale prices fell by 0.60% week-on-week, with vegetable prices decreasing by 1.07% and pork prices dropping by 3.62%[15]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for sectors expected to outperform the market by over 20% in the next six months, while sectors with moderate performance are rated as "Hold" [23]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive sentiment in the real estate market following new policies, with increased viewing and sales activity during the National Day holiday, indicating a potential stabilization in the sector [1]. - International oil prices have been rising due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with concerns over Iranian oil supply disruptions impacting market dynamics [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sentiment in driving demand across various sectors, particularly in tourism and entertainment, where spending has shown signs of recovery [1]. - The automotive sector is experiencing robust growth in electric vehicle sales, with significant year-on-year increases in sales figures for major manufacturers [7]. - The technology sector, particularly financial IT, is expected to benefit from increased demand as financial institutions invest in core systems and digital transformation initiatives [8]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The report discusses the impact of international events on domestic markets, particularly the rise in oil prices due to Middle Eastern tensions and strong U.S. employment data influencing Federal Reserve policies [1]. Industry Configuration - High dividend sectors are favored, with a focus on underperforming domestic demand sectors expected to rebound [2]. - The report identifies consumer services, home appliances, and non-bank financials as leading sectors during the holiday period [2]. Overseas Market Performance - The report notes that Hong Kong remains attractive to international investors, with a recommendation to focus on financial stocks and technology companies with low valuations [3]. Fixed Income - The report indicates that convertible bonds have significant room for valuation recovery, suggesting a focus on low-priced, small-cap convertible bonds for potential gains [4]. Machinery - The machinery sector is highlighted for its potential recovery, particularly in general equipment and rail transit investments, with expected growth in orders and valuations [5]. Automotive - Electric vehicle sales are noted for their impressive growth, with major manufacturers reporting significant increases in sales figures [7]. Computing - The financial IT sector is expected to see sustained demand due to ongoing digital transformation efforts in financial institutions [8]. Media - The gaming industry is recommended for investment, with a stable market size and low valuation levels for leading companies [9]. Telecommunications - The report emphasizes the growing demand for AI-driven connectivity and the expansion of satellite internet infrastructure as key growth areas [10]. Non-ferrous Metals - The report recommends copper and aluminum as primary investment targets, citing expected demand recovery and supply constraints [11]. Chemicals - The report suggests a focus on light hydrocarbons and coal chemical routes due to rising oil prices and cost advantages [13]. Food and Beverage - The report continues to recommend investments in the liquor sector and leading consumer goods companies, highlighting the long-term growth potential [14][15]. Light Industry - The report suggests focusing on home furnishings and paper industries, anticipating demand recovery driven by policy support [17]. Home Appliances - The report indicates strong sales growth in home appliances during the holiday period, driven by trade-in policies and export demand [18][19].

Performance Summary - The "Central State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Selection" strategy has achieved an annualized return of 14.99% since 2016, outperforming the CSI Central SOE Index by 10.33%[12] - The cumulative return for the "Central SOEs Selection" strategy in 2023 is 49.41%, and 23.79% in 2024 year-to-date[12] - The "Belt and Road + SOEs" strategy has an annualized return of 20.12% since 2016, with a cumulative return of 50.04% in 2023 and 34.49% in 2024 year-to-date[18] - The "Digital Economy + SOEs" strategy has an annualized return of 14.26% since 2016, with a cumulative return of 34.86% in 2023 and 7.83% in 2024 year-to-date[22] - The "National Security + SOEs" strategy has an annualized return of 19.04% since 2016, with a cumulative return of 56.88% in 2023 and 31.84% in 2024 year-to-date[28] Factor Analysis - The selection factors include dividend yield (TTM), price-to-earnings ratio (TTM), volatility, and company performance metrics such as ROE and net profit growth[7] - The correlation between dividend yield and future returns is positive, indicating that higher dividend yields lead to higher future returns[9] - The "Belt and Road + SOEs" strategy emphasizes ROE and net profit growth over P/E ratio due to the latter's underperformance[18] - The "National Security + SOEs" strategy incorporates ESG factors, reflecting a growing emphasis on sustainability in investment decisions[28]

10月量化资产、风格与行业配置观点 www.swsc.com.cn 西南证券研究发展中心 金融工程团队 2024年10月 内容目录 一、大类资产配置观点 二、大小盘/价值成长风格观点 三、行业轮动观点 四、市场情绪跟踪 1 A股：政策"重拳出击"，强烈看多A股 截至9月30日，西南金工A股择时信号全面看多A股。 基本面信号由负转正，央行降准降息，高频货币指数由1.03升至1.04，信号由负转正。经济指标中高频经济指数显示同比 增长1.92%， 同时9月PMI49.8，经济指标持续回暖。 资金情绪转多，9月最后一周大量资金流入，新发基金规模和融资买入额触发看多信号。 国际影响力信号为1，中美利差持续扩大，人民币汇率持续升值。 改进ERP仍显示A股赔率较高。 A股择时框架 2024年A股择时信号 数据来源: wind、西南证券整理 2 中债：降息政策仍有空间，看多债券 债券信号仍然全面看多，信号为3/3。 基本面：房地产开发投资额延续下行趋势，地产仍有压力；PMI同比虽有上升态势，但经济修复动能仍待观察。 市场利率：R007与1Y国债处于下行趋势，从择时信号角度短期利率发出未触发看空信号。 交易情绪：三十年期国债 ...