中航西飞 20241007 摘要 • 中航西飞作为国内军民大中型飞机的生产和维修承制单位，在国产大飞机 赛道中占据重要地位，其两大主业为大型军用运输机和轰炸机整机以及大 型民机结构件。 • 公司近年来通过内部提质增效工作和股权激励，推动业绩步入高质量增长 通道，2023 年中报显示净利率达到 3.23%，创下近 10 年来的新高。 • 国产大飞机产业正处于产业化提速的拐点，C919 的常态化商业运营标志 着我国具备自主研制世界一流大型客机的能力，未来 5 年内总装端将以消 化国东南三大行订单为主。 • 未来 5-10 年内，国内机队存量更新需求比新增需求更为确定，到 2030 年前后将迎来换机高峰，而波音和空客在全球交付能力有限，中国窄体客 机需求存在较大缺口，是 C919 长期增量需求来源。 • 中航西飞在 C919 项目上负责 50%以上份额，到 2027 年放量将给公司贡献 超过 20%的利润弹性，此外还参与了 ARJ21 支线飞机及新舟系列民用平台 研发制造任务，在国际转包业务方面与空客、波音保持长期合作关系，未 来 3-5 年内该业务将继续为公司提供显著增量。 • 中航西飞在军用运输机领域具有显著优 ...

中航重机 20241007 摘要 • 中航重机作为国产大飞机锻件、铸件及液压环控主要供应商之一，受益于 国产大飞机赛道长期增长潜力和更高确定性。短期内，产业化提速，业绩 弹性较大；长期来看，C919 国产化替代和 C929 产品迭代将提供持续增长 保障。 • 中航重机近期经营情况受老型号价格调整、增值税问题以及新并表子公司 亏损影响，收入和利润同比有所下降。 • 国产大飞机赛道处于产业拐点，C919 商业运营逐步成熟，性能优势明显， 交付节奏加快，总装端产能提升。未来 5-10 年国内机队存量更新需求高 于新增需求，波音和空客交付能力不足将带来 C919 长期增量需求。 • 中航重机与商飞合作紧密，已获得 C919 项目供应资质，并深化合作推进 新支线飞机和大型客机项目。公司依托子公司布局大型模锻产能，并计划 打造专业化生产基地与研发基地，提升配套份额。 • 中航重机将通过深化合作、释放产能、加强研发等措施应对市场需求，提 升竞争力。随着 C919 产能释放和配套业务范围扩大，公司单机价值量预 计将进一步提升，到 2027 年，国产大飞机将为公司带来超过 10%的利润 弹性。 • 国际转包业务格局调整，国内企 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report confirms a policy bottom for A-shares, indicating a transition into a technical bull market driven by recent macroeconomic policy shifts aimed at stabilizing growth [1][10][12] - External capital is expected to return to A-shares as the central government's economic stance has shifted, with signs of foreign capital flowing back from other Asian equity markets [1][12][14] - The report suggests focusing on sectors aligned with government policy, particularly in consumer goods, non-bank financials, and real estate, as these areas are likely to benefit from increased government support [1][5][18] Economic Indicators - As of August, the inventory cycle shows signs of active replenishment, but industrial data indicates ongoing demand shortages and low corporate profitability [1][7] - Industrial enterprises' revenue growth was 2.4% year-on-year for the first eight months, with a decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [7][9] - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8, indicating weak demand despite a slight recovery in new orders [7][10] Policy Developments - The 924 financial policy package and the 926 Politburo meeting signal a significant shift in macroeconomic policy towards stabilizing growth, with rapid implementation of supportive measures [1][10][13] - Key measures include lowering mortgage rates and down payment ratios, which are expected to stimulate consumption and improve the real estate market [10][13] - The report anticipates potential issuance of larger-scale government bonds by the end of the year to support fiscal stimulus efforts [1][5][18] Sector Focus - The consumer sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, particularly in large consumption-related stocks, as government policies are expected to prioritize consumer welfare [1][5][18] - The real estate sector is also expected to see improvements due to supportive policies aimed at stabilizing the market [1][5][18] - The military industry is noted for potential investment opportunities, particularly in unmanned systems and related technologies, as global defense spending increases [4][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The military industry is currently experiencing a small cycle within a larger cycle, with 2024 expected to be a temporary low point. The trajectory of the military industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to follow a "V" shape, with high growth expected after a period of low performance [2][4] - The military industry is expected to become one of the sectors with the largest marginal improvement following the worst mid-year performance in a decade, with a median revenue growth rate of core military enterprises turning negative for the first time [4] - The report highlights the potential for mergers and acquisitions (M&A), asset securitization, and recovery of orders as key drivers for the military industry, especially in a market environment with increased risk appetite [2][4][5] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - From September 23 to 30, the defense and military index increased by 26.70%, outperforming the broader market indices [14] Important Events and Announcements - Significant developments include the successful first flight of the world's first vertical take-off fixed-wing mother drone and various strategic partnerships in the aerospace sector [15][17] Military Industry Adaptation and Adjustments - The military industry is facing pressures such as demand slowdown and increased competition, necessitating adjustments in production relationships and a focus on innovation and digital transformation [21][22] Mergers and Acquisitions in the Military Industry - The report indicates a potential acceleration in M&A activities within the military sector, driven by the need for industry consolidation and the presence of numerous quality non-listed assets within state-owned enterprises [25][26] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in unmanned equipment, satellite internet, electronic countermeasures, and other emerging fields within the military sector [9][10]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating for the defense and military industry, specifically focusing on ceramic matrix composites (CMC) [1] Core Viewpoints - **CMC as the Next-Generation High-Temperature Material**: CMC exhibits excellent properties such as high-temperature resistance, lightweight, and superior mechanical performance, making it the preferred choice for high-temperature applications in aerospace, nuclear energy, and rail transportation [1][14] - **Domestic Industry Entering Rapid Growth Phase**: China's CMC industry is transitioning from small-scale applications to large-scale production, particularly in aerospace and defense sectors [2][3] - **Market Size Projection**: The domestic CMC market is expected to reach **10 billion RMB by 2030**, driven by increasing demand in aerospace and defense sectors [3] Industry Development and Applications - **Performance Advantages**: CMC outperforms traditional materials like high-temperature alloys, with a service temperature range of **1150-2000°C**, and weight reduction of **30-50%** compared to high-temperature alloy components [1][17] - **Global vs Domestic Progress**: While the US and France lead in CMC industrialization, China has made significant strides in aerospace applications, with CMC components being used in the **C919 aircraft** [1][26] - **Key Applications**: CMC is widely used in **aerospace engines, thermal protection structures, and nuclear energy components** due to its high-temperature resistance and lightweight properties [14][17][26] Technological Advancements - **Fiber Development**: SiC fibers are a key focus, with China making progress in **second and third-generation SiC fiber industrialization** [33][34] - **Preparation and Processing**: Techniques like **CVI, PIP, and MI** are widely used for non-oxide CMC, while **slurry infiltration and sol-gel methods** are preferred for oxide CMC [21][48][51] - **Environmental Barrier Coatings (EBC)**: EBCs are critical for protecting CMC components in harsh environments, with ongoing research to improve their temperature resistance up to **1650°C** [45][46] Market and Industry Players - **Upstream and Midstream Companies**: Key players include **Huoju Electronics, Huagin Technology, and Xi'an Xinyao**, which are driving the industrialization of CMC in China [4][5] - **Downstream Demand**: Aerospace and defense sectors dominate CMC applications, accounting for **60% of the market** in 2023 [3] - **Global Market**: The global CMC market was valued at **77.5 billion RMB in 2023**, with China being the fastest-growing region [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [2][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a rebound after a prolonged downturn, driven by recent monetary policy easing and fiscal stimulus measures [3][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation and valuation recovery as key themes in the current market environment, with a focus on companies with strong R&D capabilities and market positions [3][23]. Market Performance Review - During the period from September 23 to October 6, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3336.50, up 8.06%, while the Shenzhen 300 Index rose 8.48% to 4017.85. The pharmaceutical industry index increased by 11.15%, ranking 11th among 31 primary industry indices [7][22]. - The weekly performance of various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry showed significant gains, with traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical commerce, chemical preparations, biological products, medical services, raw materials, and medical devices increasing by 8.92%, 8.95%, 9.84%, 12.23%, 13.95%, 11.09%, and 12.40% respectively [8][22]. Industry News - AbbVie submitted a new drug application for its cMET ADC, Telisotuzumab Vedotin, to the FDA for treating adult patients with locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer [18]. - Two new class 1 drugs were approved for market entry: Inusimab injection for primary hypercholesterolemia and Aplavirot for recurrent cervical cancer [19]. - A total of 18 innovative drug companies completed new financing rounds, with over 154 financing activities reported globally in the biopharmaceutical sector, totaling more than $4.7 billion [20]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors for investment: 1. Innovative drugs and their supply chains, particularly those targeting key disease areas with robust R&D pipelines [23]. 2. Offline pharmacies and chain drugstores benefiting from increased market concentration [23]. 3. Medical services that cater to both consumer and hospital needs, with expectations for a recovery in outpatient visits [23]. - Long-term investment strategies should include companies with strong innovation capabilities and competitive advantages, particularly in the high-end medical device sector and healthcare consumption [23].

| --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-----------------------------------------------| | 行业报告:先进制造行业周报 2024年9月29日 | | 中航证券有限公司 AVIC SECURITIES CO., LTD. | | | | | | 稳增长措施推动下或迎来估值修复，"AI+数字经济+信创"打开产业中长期成长空间 | | | | 行业评级:增持 | | 分析师：邹润芳 证券执业证书号：S0640521040001 | | | | 分析师：卢正羽 证券执业证书号：S0640521060001 | | | | 研究助理：闫智 证券执业证书号：S0640122070030 | 中航证券研究所发布 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款部分 股市有风险 入市需谨慎 中航先进制造 -- 投资观点 ■ 重点推荐：北特科技、贝斯特、微光股份、鸣志电器、莱斯信息、纳睿雷达、万集科技、万马科技、组威股份 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [54][55]. Core Insights - Recent policy announcements from the Political Bureau and the State Council are expected to significantly boost consumer confidence and spending in the agricultural sector. The announcement of a share buyback plan by Muyuan Foods is seen as a strong signal to support market confidence in the industry [3][6]. - The report highlights that leading companies in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, are well-positioned for long-term value due to their scale and management advantages [3][6]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a recovery in prices, with the average selling price of pigs in August reaching 20.35 RMB/kg, a month-on-month increase of 7.44% and a year-on-year increase of 18.66% [7][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector saw a weekly increase of 15.30%, ranking 14th out of 31 sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 12.81% during the same period [1][12]. Key Companies - The top five gainers in the sector include Haida Group (25.9%), Juxing Agriculture (25.5%), and Andeli (23.3%). The top five losers include ST Jinan (0.3%) and Jilin Grain Holdings (2.8%) [2]. Pig Farming Sector - In August, the total sales of pigs from 12 listed companies reached 12.299 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 1.15%. The average weight of pigs sold increased to 126.13 kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.48% [7][8]. - Muyuan Foods reported a significant increase in revenue and profit, with a net profit of 829 million RMB, a year-on-year growth of 129.84% [24]. Policy Impact - The report emphasizes that the recent monetary and fiscal policies, including interest rate cuts and support for consumer spending, are expected to enhance the overall economic environment and positively impact the agricultural sector [3][6]. - The government is also focusing on stabilizing the supply of pigs in anticipation of increased demand during the National Day holiday [15]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is transitioning towards quality improvement rather than just scale growth, with companies focusing on reducing production costs and enhancing profitability [24][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [46]. Core Views - The securities sector has shown a significant increase of 25.60% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.90 percentage points [5]. - Recent government policies aimed at supporting the capital market include lowering the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates, which are expected to enhance market liquidity and risk appetite [5][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting long-term capital inflows into the market, which is anticipated to improve the current low confidence in the capital market [7]. - Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are highlighted as effective means for securities firms to achieve external growth, with a focus on enhancing industry competitiveness and resource allocation [7][39]. Summary by Sections Securities - The brokerage sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at 1.29, which is considered historically low [5]. - The average daily trading volume in A-shares reached 10,622 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 88.79% [16]. - The report notes that the total equity financing scale for the year has reached 2,272.08 billion yuan, with IPOs contributing 475 billion yuan [20]. Insurance - The insurance sector has increased by 17.69% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.99 percentage points [7]. - The total assets of insurance companies reached 33.90 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.88% [33]. - The report indicates that the insurance industry is encouraged to increase long-term investments in the capital market, with a focus on optimizing assessment mechanisms [7][35]. Industry Dynamics - Recent policies from the Central Financial Committee and the China Securities Regulatory Commission aim to facilitate long-term capital inflows and enhance the efficiency of the M&A market [38]. - The report highlights the need for regulatory support to improve the quality and efficiency of listed companies through M&A and other financial strategies [39].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [37]. Core Viewpoints - The National Day holiday tourism market is expected to be robust, with the issuance of consumer vouchers likely to accelerate demand release. During the holiday, domestic long-distance travel and outbound tourism are seeing a surge, with online travel platforms reporting that domestic long-distance travel accounts for 52% of trips. The booking volume for international flights from third-tier cities has increased by 2.5 times year-on-year [21][28]. - The overall recovery of the tourism market is anticipated, with historical highs in travel volume and consumption expected during the National Day holiday. The report suggests focusing on domestic tourism destinations with expected traffic improvements and outbound tourism product providers due to increased flight availability and visa-free countries [21][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The social services sector index saw a weekly increase of 17.26%, ranking 8th among 31 primary industry indices. The performance of various benchmark indices for the week includes: ChiNext Index (22.71%), Shenzhen Component Index (17.83%), and CSI 300 (15.70) [13][14]. - Sub-industry performance rankings for the week are as follows: Hotel and Catering (19.76%), Education (15.56%), Professional Services (14.90%), Tourism and Scenic Spots (13.33%), and Sports II (10.41%) [15]. Individual Stock Performance - The top five performing stocks in the social services sector include: Core International (41.96%), Junting Hotel (33.36%), Dou Shen Education (31.00%), Zero Point You Shu (30.21%), and Beijing Renli (28.29%). The bottom five include: *ST Kaiyuan (-2.97%), ST Dongshi (2.11%), ST Caesar (5.16%), Kaipu Testing (7.90%), and Xigao Hospital (8.16%) [16]. Industry News Dynamics - The report highlights the expected peak in inbound tourism due to relaxed policies, with inbound travel orders increasing by 60% year-on-year. The report also notes the growth of tourism in smaller cities, with significant increases in rural tourism orders [22]. - The issuance of consumer vouchers in cities like Shanghai, with a total of 500 million yuan allocated, is expected to boost consumer spending in sectors such as dining and accommodation [28].