分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind，中原证券研究所 -17% -12% -7% -2% 4% 9% 14% 19% 2023.12 2024.04 2024.08 2024.12 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,461.50 | 0.85 | | 深证成指 | 10,957.13 | 1.00 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 4,028.50 | 0.99 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,787.19 | 0.94 | | 中证 500 | 6, ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after an initial decline, with significant support found around 3425 points during trading [7][18] - Key sectors such as finance, consumption, pharmaceuticals, and military industry performed well, while semiconductor, electrical, consumer electronics, and small metals sectors lagged [7][18] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index were 14.51 times and 38.66 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [18] Group 2 - The total trading volume for the two markets reached 18,877 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [18] - Recent policy signals from the Political Bureau meeting suggest a more proactive macroeconomic policy aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, boosting consumption, and implementing more aggressive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [18] - The market is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with short-term investment opportunities identified in finance, consumption, pharmaceuticals, and military sectors [18]

市场数据(2024-12-11) 收盘价(元) 27.80 一年内最高/最低(元) 27.89/15.26 沪深 300 指数 3,988.83 市净率(倍) 6.67 流通市值(亿元) 199.16 基础数据(2024-09-30) 每股净资产(元) 4.17 每股经营现金流(元) 0.51 毛利率(%) 70.11 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) 12.62 资产负债率(%) 42.54 总股本/流通股(万股) 104,936.90/71,639.23 B 股/H 股(万股) 0.00/0.00 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 食品饮料 分析师：刘冉 登记编码：S0730516010001 liuran@ccnew.com 021-50586281 销售增长转负，广告等销售投入大 ——百润股份(002568)2024 年三季报点评 证券研究报告-季报点评 谨慎增持(下调) 发布日期：2024 年 12 月 12 日 投资要点： ⚫ 高基数之上销售增长回落。2024 年前三季度，公司实现营收 23.86 亿元，同比增长-2.88%，较上年同期的 49.35%回落；其中，第三季 度营收 7.58 亿元，同比增长-5 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a potential increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [3][24]. Core Views - The company, Greentec Harmonic (688017), reported a revenue growth of 25.59% in Q3 2024, signaling a gradual recovery in the industry [3][7]. - The industrial robot market is expected to recover, with production turning positive from April-May 2024, which will benefit the demand for harmonic reducers [7][8]. - The company is positioned as a leading domestic manufacturer of harmonic reducers, benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution in the industrial robot sector [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 276 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.64% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 58.83 million yuan, showing a decline compared to the previous year [3]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 39.53%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][9]. Market Trends - The production of industrial robots in China saw a cumulative increase of 13.3% year-on-year from January to October 2024, reversing a trend of decline [7]. - Domestic manufacturers of industrial robots have seen a market share increase to 51.6%, up 4.5 percentage points from the same period in 2023 [7]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 409 million yuan, 514 million yuan, and 655 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [9][10]. - The corresponding net profit forecasts are 84 million yuan, 115 million yuan, and 155 million yuan for the same years [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the lithium battery industry [3]. Core Views - The lithium battery sector is experiencing sustained high growth in sales, with a strong performance relative to the CSI 300 index, driven by macro policy developments and market style changes [3][6]. - The overall industry outlook remains positive, with a focus on monitoring upstream raw material prices, monthly sales, and the implementation of industry regulations [3]. - The domestic and international development prospects for the new energy vehicle industry are confirmed, making the sector worthy of close attention [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - In November 2024, the lithium battery index rose by 14.23%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by only 0.68% [6][19]. - The number of stocks in the lithium battery sector that increased in November was 85, while 20 stocks decreased, with a median increase of 6.74% [19]. 2. New Energy Vehicle Sales and Industry Prices - In November 2024, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.512 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47.37% [26]. - The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China for 2024 reached 11.263 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36.40% [26]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 76,000 yuan/ton as of December 11, 2024, reflecting a 2.70% increase from early November [7][58]. 3. Industry and Company News - The report highlights the performance of key players in the lithium battery sector, including CATL and BYD, which continue to dominate the market in terms of battery installation and sales [57]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of upstream raw materials and the overall market dynamics affecting the lithium battery industry [3][7]. 4. Financial Overview of Relevant Companies - The report provides insights into the financial performance of companies involved in the lithium battery supply chain, noting significant fluctuations in stock prices and market performance [21][22]. 5. Investment Ratings and Main Lines - The report suggests that investors should focus on leading companies in specific segments of the lithium battery industry, as individual stock performance is expected to diverge [3].

资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -17% -12% -7% -2% 4% 9% 14% 19% 2023.12 2024.04 2024.08 2024.12 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,432.49 | 0.29 | | 深证成指 | 10,848.42 | 0.33 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,988.83 | -0.17 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,751.78 | -0.1 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a small upward trend, encountering resistance around 3437 points during trading [7][18] - Key sectors performing well included communication equipment, consumer electronics, cultural media, and non-ferrous metals, while insurance, banking, software development, and internet services lagged [7][18] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index were 14.48 times and 38.50 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [18] Group 2 - The total trading volume for the two markets was 17,987 billion, above the median of the past three years [18] - Recent policy signals from the political bureau meeting indicated a commitment to more proactive macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, boosting consumption, and implementing moderately loose monetary policies [18] - The focus of market dynamics is expected to shift towards domestic macro policies and their impact on market confidence and expectations, with an emphasis on supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrades [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the communication industry [3][5]. Core Insights - The communication industry index underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index in November 2024, with a decline of 2.03% compared to the Shanghai Composite's increase of 1.42% [3][41]. - The telecom business revenue reached 1.4535 trillion yuan from January to October 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, while emerging business revenue grew by 8.9% [3][55]. - The penetration rate of 5G mobile phone users reached 55.6% by October 2024, with a significant increase in gigabit broadband users [3][57]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The communication industry index fell by 2.03% in November 2024, lagging behind other indices [3][41]. - The telecom sector's revenue growth was driven by emerging businesses, particularly big data services, which saw a year-on-year increase of 52.5% [3][55]. 2. Industry Tracking - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector's industrial value added grew by 12.6% year-on-year from January to October 2024, outperforming the overall industrial growth rate [3][50]. - Retail sales of communication equipment increased by 12.2% year-on-year during the same period, driven by smartphone upgrades and market promotions [3][50]. 3. Domestic Mobile Phone Industry Tracking - In October 2024, domestic smartphone shipments reached 29.67 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with 5G phones accounting for 90.1% of total shipments [3][78]. - From January to October 2024, domestic smartphone shipments totaled 250 million units, with 5G phones making up 85.5% of the total [3][78]. 4. Emerging Business Development - Emerging business revenue for telecom operators reached 358.3 billion yuan from January to October 2024, contributing 24.7% to total telecom revenue [3][71]. - The cloud computing and big data sectors saw revenue growth of 8.5% and 52.5% respectively during the same period [3][71]. 5. Operator Performance - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 995 million by October 2024, with a net increase of 173 million users since the end of 2023 [3][57]. - Operators are focusing on high-quality development and exploring new revenue models through differentiated 5G service packages [3][62].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Accumulate" [3][14]. Core Views - The growth of high-end liquor is slowing down, but overall profitability is improving. In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.38%, with the growth rate narrowing compared to the same period last year [3][5]. - The company's sales expenses have decreased, leading to enhanced profitability. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company realized a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.15%, with a net profit margin improvement of 1.21 percentage points [3][5]. - The report indicates that the economic headwinds will likely lead liquor companies to continue reducing sales and market investments to achieve relatively superior shareholder returns [3][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 5.35 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.00% [6]. - Net profit for 2024 is estimated at 1.37 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 7.78% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 2.81 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.97 [6][9]. - The company's gross margin is projected to be 82.86% in 2024, slightly declining from previous years [9][10]. - The total assets are expected to reach 9.52 billion yuan by 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 44.63% [10].

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating of "Market Perform" for the defense and military industry, indicating a neutral outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The defense and military industry is expected to experience a turnaround as it approaches the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with significant investment opportunities identified in core enterprises and emerging technologies [5][6][7]. - The industry has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.05% as of December 9, 2024, but has underperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.56 percentage points, ranking 15th among 31 sectors [4][35]. - The report highlights a notable decline in overall performance for the industry in the third quarter of 2024, with a 5.23% drop in revenue and a 27.87% decrease in net profit year-on-year [5][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The defense and military industry index has shown a fluctuating upward trend in 2024, but overall performance has lagged behind the CSI 300 index [33]. - As of December 9, 2024, the industry index stands at a price-to-earnings ratio of 69.8, which is above the median of the past ten years [40]. 2. Third Quarter Performance - The industry reported total revenue of 376.68 billion, reflecting a 5.23% year-on-year decline, and a net profit of 21.37 billion, down 27.87% [54]. - Among various segments, only the maritime equipment sector showed positive growth, with a revenue increase of 15.07% [62]. 3. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: leading enterprises within the military supply chain, emerging technologies in modern warfare such as drones and missiles, and potential recovery in the upstream supply chain [6][7][8]. - The report emphasizes that 2025 is expected to be a pivotal year for the military industry, marking a significant recovery phase [5].