分析师：徐至 登记编码：S0730525040001 外部不确定性仍存，成长与价值均衡配置 ——月度策略 相关报告 《月度策略：风险偏好或将提升，建议关注消 费科技行业——月度报告》 2025-05-08 《月度策略：宏观环境逐步改善，建议关注科 技与红利板块——月度报告》 2025-04-07 联系人：李智 证券研究报告-月度策略 发布日期：2025 年 06 月 04 日 投资要点： 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共17页 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788号T1座22楼 央行 5 月金融政策组合拳提振市场。金融政策层面，央行 5 月 7 日推出十项政策，降准降息释放万亿流动性，再贷款定向支持服务 消费与养老产业。政策不仅改善市场流动性，还降低企业融资成本， 增强居民消费能力。5 月 14 日，科技部等七部门印发《加快构建科 技金融体制有力支撑高水平科技自立自强的若干政策举措》，央行 主要在三方面落实《若干政策举措》，一是提升科技贷款的投放强 度和服务能力 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -15% -9% -4% 1% 7% 12% 17% 23% 2024.06 2024.10 2025.01 2025.06 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,361.98 | 0.43 | | 深证成指 | | 10,057.17 | 0.16 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,852.01 | 0.31 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,677.14 | 0.24 | | 中证 | 500 | 5,694.84 | 0.42 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,347.49 | -0.47 | | 深证成指 | | 10,040.63 | -0.85 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,840.23 | -0.48 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,668.40 | -0.64 | | 中证 | 500 | 5,671.07 | -0.85 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 | 2000 | 7,801.23 | 0.58 | | 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 | | | | 国际市场表现 | 指数名称 | | 收盘 | 涨跌 ...

Lithium Battery - The lithium battery index decreased by 0.89%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which fell by 1.08%[3] - Short-term investment opportunities in the sector are recommended due to industry prosperity and market trends[3] New Materials - The new materials index fell by 0.56%, while the CSI 300 index dropped by 1.08%, indicating a slightly stronger performance[4] - Long-term growth is supported by national policies and rapid development in downstream sectors like aerospace and robotics[4] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The agriculture index rose by 1.95%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.03 percentage points[5] - The livestock breeding sector showed significant gains, while the pet food sector experienced declines[5] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector declined by 0.9%, but still outperformed the CSI 300 index[6] - The primary reason for the decline was the continuous drop in the high-weight liquor sector, which fell by 2.84%[6] Securities - The securities index fell by 0.09%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.99 percentage points[7] - The market sentiment remains weak, with expectations of continued low volatility in the short term[7] Automotive - The automotive index dropped by 4.32%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.24 percentage points[8] - The sector is advised to focus on the impact of new vehicle releases and policies promoting vehicle upgrades[9] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector decreased by 1.77%, underperforming the CSI 300 index[10] - The sector is currently in a destocking phase, with upstream product prices falling below cash costs, prompting the elimination of outdated production capacity[10] Power and Utilities - The power and utilities sector increased by 0.58%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.66 percentage points[11] - The sector's profitability showed a year-on-year growth of 4.4% in the first four months of 2025[11] Media - The media sector rose by 1.73%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.08%[12] - The gaming sector saw a notable increase of 4.41%, indicating strong market demand and favorable policies[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the electrical equipment sector [4]. Core Insights - The electrical equipment index underperformed the CSI 300 index in May, with a monthly increase of 1.79%, lagging behind the CSI 300's 2.34% by 0.55 percentage points. Among the four sub-sectors, transmission and distribution equipment and distribution equipment saw gains, while power electronics and automation, as well as motors, experienced declines [4][8]. - The PMI index in April fell by 1.5 percentage points to 49.0%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity, primarily due to external tariff policies affecting trade [4][20]. - Despite short-term tariff impacts, exports of electrical equipment continued to grow significantly, with transformer exports reaching USD 665 million, up 32.5% year-on-year, and wire and cable exports at USD 2.948 billion, up 36.7% year-on-year [4][53]. - The report anticipates a stabilization in macroeconomic conditions in May, with domestic demand for electrical equipment remaining strong due to accelerated grid construction and ongoing development in AI and computing power sectors [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The electrical equipment sector's performance in May was weaker than the CSI 300 index, ranking 24th among major industry indices [4][8]. 2. Macroeconomic Overview - In April, the industrial added value grew by 6.1% year-on-year, with fixed asset investment increasing by 4.0% year-on-year [19][20]. 3. Electrical Equipment 3.1. Power Operation - In April, total electricity consumption reached 772.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [29]. 3.2. Industry Chain - The cost of silicon steel slightly decreased, while prices for copper, silver, and aluminum saw minor increases [53]. 3.3. Grid Tendering in May - The State Grid conducted multiple tenders for various equipment, indicating ongoing investment in grid infrastructure [73][76]. 4. Regional Situation - In April, Henan province's electricity generation was 28.438 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.54% [79]. 5. Industry Dynamics - Recent government initiatives focus on enhancing safety management in electrochemical energy storage and promoting high-quality development in the energy sector [83]. 6. Key Company Announcements - Several companies in the sector announced share buybacks and dividend distributions, reflecting positive corporate governance and shareholder returns [88].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic (PV) sector in China experienced significant growth in installed capacity in April, with a year-on-year increase of 214.68%, totaling 45.22 GW for the month [5][18]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tax credit policy changes and tariff uncertainties on the domestic market, which may lead to increased costs and reduced demand for solar products in the U.S. [5][15]. - The report emphasizes the technological breakthrough in perovskite solar cells, which could accelerate commercialization and present new investment opportunities [5][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The photovoltaic industry index rose by 1% in May, slightly underperforming the CSI 300 index, which gained 2.34% during the same period [8][11]. - Most sub-sectors within the photovoltaic industry reported positive returns, with quartz crucibles and monocrystalline silicon wafers leading the gains [11][14]. Industry and Company Dynamics - April saw a substantial increase in new PV installations, driven by commercial and distributed projects rushing to secure policy benefits [18]. - The report notes that the first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in PV module exports, totaling 61.9 GW, down 8% year-on-year, primarily due to domestic demand prioritization [21][29]. - The report discusses the ongoing challenges in the polysilicon industry, with production cuts and inventory management being critical to stabilizing prices [31][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with clear capacity clearing expectations and significant technological innovations, such as photovoltaic glass and integrated component manufacturers [5][15]. - It highlights the importance of monitoring companies in the polysilicon and perovskite solar cell sectors for potential investment opportunities [5][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The domestic photovoltaic (PV) installation capacity saw significant growth in April, with a year-on-year increase of 214.68%, totaling 45.22 GW for the month [5][18]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tax credit policy changes and tariff uncertainties on the market, which may increase investment costs and reduce domestic demand [5]. - The report emphasizes the technological breakthrough in perovskite solar cells, which could accelerate commercialization and present new investment opportunities [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The photovoltaic industry index increased by 1% in May, slightly underperforming the CSI 300 index, which had a return of 2.34% [8]. - Most sub-sectors within the photovoltaic industry reported positive returns, with quartz crucibles and monocrystalline silicon wafers leading the gains [11]. Industry and Company Dynamics - In April, the domestic PV installation capacity surged, driven by commercial and distributed projects aiming to secure policy benefits [18]. - The report notes a significant decline in the export of PV components, with a 8% year-on-year decrease in the first quarter of 2025, totaling 61.9 GW [21]. - The report discusses the ongoing challenges in the supply chain, including production cuts in polysilicon and the stabilization of product prices following a period of overproduction [5][31][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with clear capacity clearance expectations and significant technological innovations, particularly in photovoltaic glass, integrated components, polysilicon, electronic silver paste, BC batteries, and perovskite batteries [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 405 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.59%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 55 million yuan, up 5.59% year-on-year [7]. - The revenue growth has been sustained, with year-on-year increases of 6.45%, 14.90%, and 10.50% in Q3 2024, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025 respectively, despite challenges in the restaurant industry [7]. - The company has adopted a product customization strategy to meet client needs, ensuring sustainable revenue growth [7]. - The sauce category achieved significant growth, with revenue of 319 million yuan in 2024, a 19.31% increase year-on-year, while the powder category saw a decline of 5.50% [7]. - The company experienced revenue growth in East, North, and South China markets, while the Northeast and Central China markets saw declines [7][8]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 38.76%, a slight decrease, but the net margin improved to 15.78% due to cost control measures [10]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed significant profit improvement, with a gross margin of 39.21% and a net margin of 17.42% [10]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 0.81 yuan, 0.98 yuan, and 1.14 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 31.93, 26.38, and 22.80 based on the closing price of 25.96 yuan on May 29 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the new materials industry [7][20]. Core Insights - The new materials sector underperformed the CSI 300 index in May, with a 1.09% increase compared to the CSI 300's 1.74% [7][11]. - The new materials index's PE (TTM, excluding negative values) is 23.92 times, which is a 2.32% increase from the previous month and is at the 64.80% percentile of historical valuations since 2022, indicating reasonable valuation levels [7][20]. - The sector is expected to continue growing due to increasing demand from China's manufacturing industry and the integration of technologies like artificial intelligence [7][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The new materials index's performance in May was weaker than the CSI 300, ranking 23rd among 30 sectors [7][11]. - The trading volume for the new materials sector was 707.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.51% month-on-month [7][11]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking - Basic metals prices mostly increased in May, with copper up by 0.79% and aluminum by 1.29% [7][36]. - Global semiconductor sales reached 55.90 billion USD in March, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase [7][41]. - Exports of superhard materials increased by 22.88% in volume but decreased by 2.69% in value in April [7][41]. - Rare gas prices saw a slight decline in May, with helium priced at 655 yuan per bottle [7][36]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund by seven departments, which may support the new materials sector [7]. - The report notes the development of a 30x30mm diamond monocrystal by Japan's EDP company, showcasing innovation in the sector [7]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the new materials sector may gradually enter a prosperous cycle due to domestic demand recovery and the push for domestic substitution [7][20].

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in the performance of the media sector in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in both revenue and net profit compared to 2024 [38] - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in supporting the technology sector, consumer upgrades, and green economy initiatives, which are expected to drive market stability and growth [5][8] - The semiconductor industry continues to show strong growth, with global sales reaching $55.9 billion in March 2025, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase [15] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,363.45 with a daily increase of 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.24% to 10,127.20 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 13.69 and 35.80 respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [8][10] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experienced slight declines [4] - The performance of international markets reflects a cautious sentiment, with various indices showing mixed results [4] Industry Analysis - The new materials sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with a 1.09% increase in the new materials index, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite's 1.86% rise [14] - The engineering machinery and robotics sectors are experiencing a sustained recovery, with human-robot applications accelerating [30] - The power and utilities sector showed strong performance, with the electricity and public utilities index rising by 3.40% [25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with stable fundamentals and high dividend yields, such as traditional engineering machinery and high-speed rail equipment [30] - The media sector is recommended for investment due to its recovery in Q1 2025, particularly in gaming and advertising segments [38] - The report advises maintaining attention on the brokerage sector, which is expected to see improved performance in the latter half of 2025 [21][24]