Market Overview - On December 3, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3901 points and closing at 3878.00 points, down 0.51%[7] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,955.25 points, down 0.78%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.12%[7] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 16,837 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Coal, non-ferrous metals, wind power equipment, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors performed well, while internet services, energy metals, cultural media, and software development sectors lagged[3][7] - Over 70% of stocks in the two markets declined, with significant inflows into small metals, optical electronics, and coal sectors[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.01 times and 48.21 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3][16] Economic Outlook - The likelihood of achieving a 5% growth target for the year remains high, with the macroeconomic environment showing signs of moderate recovery[3] - Upcoming important meetings are expected to set the tone for next year's economic policies, potentially catalyzing a new market rally[3] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions and closely monitor macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy developments[3] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in coal, non-ferrous metals, optical electronics, and wind power equipment sectors[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power and utilities sector based on industry valuation levels, earnings growth expectations, and development prospects [7]. Core Insights - The power and utilities index outperformed the market in November 2025, with a decline of 1.80%, compared to a 2.46% drop in the CSI 300, resulting in a 0.66 percentage point outperformance [2][11]. - In October 2025, the national electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.4%, with significant increases in the charging and swapping service industry, as well as in information transmission, software, and IT services [3][15]. - The installed capacity of wind and solar power combined exceeded that of thermal power for the first time, accounting for 46.1% of total installed capacity as of October 2025 [3][37]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The power and utilities index showed a stronger performance than the market, with specific sub-sectors like heating and gas showing positive growth [2][11]. - The top-performing stocks in November included Shengli Co. (33.07%) and Delong Huineng (26.03%) [11]. Supply and Demand in the Industry - Electricity consumption in October 2025 reached 857.2 billion kWh, with a notable increase in the third sector's consumption, particularly in charging services [15][16]. - The total electricity generation in October 2025 was 800.2 billion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, driven by a recovery in thermal power generation [24][25]. Industry Chain Volume and Price - Coal production and imports continued to decline, with a 2.3% decrease in domestic coal production in October 2025 [4][38]. - The price of thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 820 RMB/ton, reflecting a monthly increase of 7.9% [4][46]. Natural Gas Volume and Price - Natural gas production growth slowed to 5.9% year-on-year in October 2025, while imports decreased by 7.3% [5][54]. - The price of liquefied natural gas was reported at 4268 RMB/ton, with a slight monthly increase of 0.7% [5][57]. Yangtze River Three Gorges Water Conditions - The water inflow at the Three Gorges continued to improve, with significant increases in both inflow and outflow rates compared to the previous year [7][62]. Monthly Power Supply and Demand in Henan Province - In October 2025, Henan's total electricity consumption decreased by 4.47% year-on-year, while the total generation also saw a decline of 3.75% [67][71].

Macro Environment - Economic data for November shows weak recovery in investment and consumption, with exports declining due to high base effects and holiday impacts. However, CPI has turned positive year-on-year, and the decline in PPI has narrowed, indicating signs of mild recovery in prices. The export structure has improved, with high-tech product exports showing strong resilience [6][10][12] - The central bank's third-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions and supporting "stable growth" through counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Various government departments have introduced policies to stimulate domestic demand and private investment [6][11][67] Market and Industry Performance Bond Market Review - In November, the bond futures market faced pressure, with the ten-year main contract falling by 0.67% and the thirty-year bond dropping by 1.84%. This decline was influenced by three factors: cooling expectations for rate cuts, credit concerns stemming from the Vanke bond incident, and a weakening of the traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect. The outlook for December suggests a stabilization in the ten-year bond futures, transitioning into a slight oscillation pattern [6][45][67] Stock Market Review - The equity market in November continued to favor value over growth, with the performance of various sectors showing mixed results. The consumption sector rose by 1.02%, while technology and advanced manufacturing sectors saw declines of 3.5% and 3.41%, respectively. The overall market sentiment indicates a cautious approach among investors [6][51][57] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries in November included comprehensive (4.07%), banking (2.99%), and textile and apparel (2.95%). Conversely, the worst performers were pharmaceutical biology (-3.62%), non-bank financials (-3.81%), and electronics (-5.04%) [57][64] Monthly Allocation Recommendations - Looking ahead to December, the easing of US-China trade relations and key policy meetings are expected to influence market risk appetite. A balanced investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend defensive assets like banks and utilities, while also considering the improved valuation attractiveness of TMT and AI sectors following November's adjustments [6][67]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the gradual recovery of various industries, highlighting investment opportunities driven by supply and demand dynamics [6][15][17] - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of stabilization, with expectations for a 5% growth target for the year, supported by upcoming policy meetings [5][11] - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as shipbuilding, pharmaceuticals, and consumer electronics for short-term investment opportunities [5][10][11] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,897.71, down 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.68% to 13,056.70 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.06 and 48.64, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [5][9] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45%, respectively, reflecting a broader trend of market volatility [4] Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is entering a recovery phase, with improved profitability in sub-sectors like agricultural chemicals and fluorochemicals, while others face challenges due to rapid capacity expansion [14][15][17] - The AI sector is witnessing accelerated application and a reshaping of the global landscape, with significant advancements in domestic AI capabilities [18][19] - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with emerging opportunities in the snack and soft drink markets projected to grow significantly [20][21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated leaders in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical, as well as opportunities in organic silicon and polyester industries [15][17] - In the AI sector, companies like HUAWEI and domestic chip manufacturers are highlighted for their potential in the rapidly evolving landscape [18][19] - The food and beverage sector suggests monitoring companies involved in snacks, soft drinks, and health products, which are expected to see robust growth [21][22]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight decline on December 2, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,897.71 points, down 0.42%. Key sectors such as shipbuilding, pharmaceutical commerce, consumer electronics, and coal performed well, while precious metals, energy metals, biopharmaceuticals, and software development lagged [2][3][7]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.06 and 48.64, respectively, indicating that they are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][15]. - The total trading volume for both markets was 16,074 billion, which is above the median trading volume for the past three years, reflecting a stabilizing market after previous volatility [3][15]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On December 2, 2025, the A-share market opened lower and experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3,898 points. The market showed a mixed performance, with over 60% of stocks declining, while sectors like pharmaceutical commerce and shipbuilding saw net inflows [7][9]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to stabilize around the 4,000-point mark, with a potential for a rebalancing of market styles between cyclical and technology sectors. Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions and closely monitor macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy developments. Short-term investment opportunities are highlighted in shipbuilding, pharmaceutical commerce, consumer electronics, and automotive sectors [3][15].

Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual recovery in various industries, with a focus on investment opportunities arising from supply and demand dynamics [6][14][16] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant advancements in technology and applications, particularly in China [16][17] - The chemical industry is expected to see a marginal recovery in profitability due to improved demand and reduced investment pressures [13][14] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a slight upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,914.01, reflecting a 0.65% increase [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.95 and 48.16, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [8][9] International Market Performance - Major international indices, such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones closing at 30,772.79, down 0.67% [4] Industry Strategies - The chemical industry is entering a phase of improved stability, with a focus on supply-side constraints and demand recovery, particularly in agricultural chemicals and fluorochemicals [13][14] - The AI industry is projected to benefit from increased domestic demand and government support, with a focus on integrated circuits and software [16][17] - The food and beverage sector is facing challenges with declining revenue growth, but opportunities exist in the snack and beverage markets, which are expected to grow significantly [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical, as well as opportunities in the AI and semiconductor industries [15][16] - In the food and beverage sector, companies like Baoli Food and Dongpeng Beverage are recommended due to their growth potential in the snack and soft drink markets [21] Key Data Updates - The semiconductor industry continues to show strong growth, with global sales reaching $69.47 billion, a 25.1% year-on-year increase [36] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a focus on capacity reduction and optimization of the competitive landscape [25][23]

Core Insights - The basic chemical industry is gradually entering a prosperous phase, with investment opportunities identified from both supply and demand sides [1][7] - The industry is expected to see a marginal recovery in profitability due to the gradual rebound in downstream demand and a slowdown in new capacity releases [7][11] - The report maintains a "market perform" rating for the industry, suggesting a focus on integrated leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Satellite Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [7][8] Industry Overview - The chemical industry has shown signs of bottoming out, with profitability stabilizing after a decline in 2023 [11][15] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry achieved a revenue of CNY 67,246.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, while total profits fell by 4.4% [13][17] - The chemical product price index has seen a cumulative decline of 10.29% since the beginning of 2025, indicating ongoing price pressures [13][14] Sub-Industry Performance - Among 33 sub-industries, 18 reported revenue growth, with significant increases in carbon fiber (49.12%), synthetic resin (33.63%), and lithium battery chemicals (21.31%) [17][18] - Conversely, industries such as organic silicon and soda ash experienced substantial revenue declines of 17.37% and 15.75%, respectively [18][21] - Profitability varied widely, with pesticide, polyester, and fluorochemical sectors showing strong profit growth, while organic silicon and rubber products faced severe profit declines [18][22] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics, such as organic silicon and polyester filament, as well as those benefiting from rapid growth in downstream energy storage demand, like phosphate chemicals [7][8] - The biobased fuel industry is highlighted as having significant growth potential due to national policy support and the dual carbon policy [7][8] - The overall investment strategy emphasizes structural opportunities within the industry, driven by regulatory changes and demand recovery [7][8]

Group 1 - The computer industry is showing signs of improvement in both revenue and profit for 2025, with software business revenue reaching 11.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.0% [11][13] - The overall revenue for the computer industry in the first three quarters of 2025 is 1.51 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.1% after excluding the high proportion of Industrial Fulian [13][16] - The net profit for the industry in the first three quarters of 2025 is 184 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.4% [16] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes self-sufficiency in key areas such as integrated circuits and basic software, with increased government procurement for domestic innovation [25][26] - The EDA sector has become a focal point of U.S. export controls, accelerating the demand for domestic alternatives [29][30] - The release of HarmonyOS 6 marks a significant milestone for Huawei, with terminal numbers surpassing 23 million, indicating a strong growth trajectory for domestic operating systems [38][41] Group 3 - The AI and computing concepts have shown significant growth, with the AI computing demand driving the "East Data West Computing" concept to rise by 146.8% in 2025 [20][21] - The overall valuation of the computer industry is above historical averages, with a TTM valuation of 55.33 times as of November 27, 2025 [21][24] - Domestic AI chip manufacturers are experiencing accelerated growth, with companies like Cambrian and Haiguang reporting substantial revenue increases [48][49] Group 4 - The integration of AI applications is expected to enhance the competitive advantage of integrated AI manufacturers, with DeepSeek collaborating with domestic chip manufacturers to optimize performance [4][4] - The demand for AI servers is increasing, requiring manufacturers to enhance their overall system design capabilities [3][3] - The trend towards liquid cooling technology is becoming mainstream as AI chip performance continues to improve [3][3]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after initial declines, with significant support at 3856 points for the Shanghai Composite Index. Key sectors such as energy metals, automotive, optical electronics, and chemical products performed well, while traditional sectors like traditional Chinese medicine, banking, gaming, and insurance lagged behind [2][3][7]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are currently at 15.91 times and 47.73 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][13]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 15,979 billion, which is above the median trading volume of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [3][13]. - The market is expected to stabilize around the 4000-point mark for the Shanghai Composite Index, with a continued rebalancing of market styles anticipated, allowing for alternating performances between cyclical and technology sectors. Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions and avoid impulsive trading [3][13]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On November 28, the A-share market showed a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3888.60 points, up 0.34%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.70% [7][8]. - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, particularly in sectors like energy metals, shipbuilding, fertilizers, and cement, while sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine, banking, and gaming faced declines [7][9]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the upcoming important meeting, which will set the economic policy for the next year, could act as a catalyst for a new market rally. Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors such as automotive, energy metals, optical electronics, and power grid equipment for short-term investment opportunities [3][13].

zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -13% -7% -1% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.07 2025.11 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,888.60 | 0.34 | 深证成指 | 12,984.08 | 0.85 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 4,526.66 | 0.25 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 4,397.36 | 0.25 | | 中证 | 500 | 7,031.55 | 1.15 | ...