Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [2][13][38] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance in hydropower, with an increase in gross profit margin for thermal power despite a decrease in overall revenue [4][5][6] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend ratio of no less than 55% for the upcoming years, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [12][13] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 70.79 billion yuan, 75.19 billion yuan, and 80.75 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.88, 0.94, and 1.01 yuan [13] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 256.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.18%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 37.95 billion yuan, an increase of 1.36% [4][5] - The total power generation in the first half of 2025 was 770.59 billion kWh, a decrease of 0.54% year-on-year, with hydropower generation increasing by 10.30% to 477.82 billion kWh [5][6] - The average on-grid electricity price decreased by 6.4% to 0.353 yuan per kWh, primarily due to a drop in thermal power prices [6] Business Segmentation - The company has a dominant position in hydropower, with a total installed capacity of 21,304.5 MW, making it the third-largest listed company in China by hydropower capacity [7][10] - The contribution from the Yalong River hydropower project was significant, accounting for 55.8% of the total power generation in the first half of 2025 [5][7] - The company’s energy mix includes hydropower (62.01%), thermal power (28.88%), and a small proportion of renewable energy sources [5][10] Cost Management - Financial expenses decreased by 23.97% year-on-year to 1.373 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating improved cost management [11] - The gross profit margin for hydropower was 63.79%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin for thermal power rose to 17.26%, an increase of 2.03 percentage points [6][11]

农林牧渔 zhangmz@ccnew.com 13681931564 种业产业链分析之河南概况 分析师：张蔓梓 登记编码：S0730522110001 证券研究报告-行业深度报告 农林牧渔相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券，聚源 -5% 1% 8% 15% 22% 28% 35% 42% 2024.09 2025.01 2025.05 2025.09 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关报告 《农林牧渔行业月报：市场需求疲软，畜禽 价格低迷 》 2025-08-27 《农林牧渔行业月报：市场需求疲软，畜禽 价格低迷 》 2025-07-18 《农林牧渔行业月报：畜禽价格低迷，宠物 食品 618 消费表现亮眼》 2025-06-23 联系人：李智 楼 投资要点： 风险提示：粮食价格波动、生物育种商业化政策不及预期、市场竞 争加剧、自然灾害问题等。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共17页 发布日期：2025 年 09 月 09 日 11766 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路 10号 18楼 地址： 上海浦东 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.981 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 203 million yuan, up 6.39% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 191 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.37% year-on-year [7][8] - The company's performance is attributed to the iterative upgrade of existing technology products and market promotion, with a focus on application-oriented R&D investments [9] - The company has effectively managed its expenses, resulting in a slight increase in net profit margin [10] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 19.45%, a decrease of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.04%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The revenue breakdown by business segment shows that the mining and heavy equipment segment generated 2.236 billion yuan, accounting for 56.17% of total revenue, but saw a decline of 21.75% year-on-year. The special materials segment generated 726 million yuan, up 13.41% year-on-year, while the robot and intelligent equipment segment generated 207 million yuan, down 30.4% year-on-year. The new energy equipment segment saw significant growth, generating 812 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 765.39% [12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its competitiveness in the international market by executing a strategy focused on overseas market expansion, achieving a comprehensive application of large-scale crushing and grinding equipment in foreign super-large mines [13] - The company is transitioning from a single product supplier to a full-process solution provider for mining, significantly expanding the value of its products and enhancing its overall competitiveness [13] - The company is actively developing its robotics business, leveraging national policies to accelerate the establishment of a comprehensive robotics industry system [14] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted downwards to 8.73 billion, 9.796 billion, and 11.065 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit forecasts for the same period are adjusted to 484 million, 578 million, and 695 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 50.73X, 42.46X, and 35.3X [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [4][5][22]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.663 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.384 billion yuan, up 76.43% year-on-year [4][7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in investment income, which now constitutes a larger share of total revenue, while the contributions from brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and interest income have decreased [4][8]. - The company has successfully expanded its client base and improved customer experience, with brokerage business net income increasing by 46.27% year-on-year [10][11]. - The report notes a concentration of equity financing projects and a stable growth in debt financing, with investment banking fees increasing by 25.32% year-on-year [12]. - The asset management segment has shown stable performance, with net income from asset management fees rising by 4.92% year-on-year [15][18]. - The company has enhanced its investment strategies, particularly in high-dividend equities and alternative investments, leading to a 68.77% increase in investment income [19]. - The report indicates that the margin financing balance and market share have remained stable, with interest income from margin financing increasing by 35.58% year-on-year [20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.29 yuan, an increase of 81.25% year-on-year, and a return on equity (ROE) of 4.84%, up 1.91 percentage points year-on-year [4][7][26]. Brokerage Business - The total number of clients reached over 16.73 million, with client assets increasing by 8.07% compared to the end of 2024 [10][11]. - The net income from brokerage services was 2.333 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.27% [10][11]. Investment Banking - The company completed equity financing projects totaling 1.017 billion yuan, with investment banking fees reaching 99 million yuan, a 25.32% increase year-on-year [12]. Asset Management - The company’s asset management business achieved a net income of 128 million yuan, up 4.92% year-on-year, with a total entrusted asset scale of 50.012 billion yuan [15][18]. Investment Income - The investment income (including fair value changes) was 1.983 billion yuan, a significant increase of 68.77% year-on-year [19]. Margin Financing - The margin financing balance was 40.097 billion yuan, with a market share of 2.17%, remaining stable compared to the end of 2024 [20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3][4][21] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in investment income and operational performance, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [3][4][21] - The company’s investment income (including fair value changes) has increased, while the proportions of brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest income, and other revenues have decreased [3][8] - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position in brokerage services and has seen a recovery in debt financing, with an increase in underwriting scale [4][21] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.705 billion yuan, up 64.79% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.737 billion yuan, up 120.76% year-on-year [3][7] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) reached 0.30 yuan, an increase of 130.77% year-on-year, with a weighted average return on equity (ROE) of 4.76%, up 2.55 percentage points year-on-year [3][7] Revenue Composition - The composition of revenue has shifted, with investment income (including fair value changes) accounting for 32.2% of total revenue in 2025H, up from 10.7% in 2024 [8][11] - Brokerage business net income increased by 29.25% year-on-year, while the company’s market share in agency trading (excluding seat rentals) rose to 1.87% [11][12] Investment Banking and Asset Management - The company’s investment banking business saw a 45.00% year-on-year increase in net income, while equity financing remains a challenge with a 32.69% decline in underwriting amounts [13][14] - The asset management business has experienced rapid growth, with public fund assets reaching 29.498 billion yuan, an increase of 11.12% from the end of 2024 [14][17] Investment Strategy - The company has strengthened its investment strategies, with a significant increase in investment income (including fair value changes) by 780.81% year-on-year, reflecting robust performance in both equity and fixed income investments [18][19] - The company has also focused on enhancing risk management and liquidity in its investment portfolios [18][19] Future Projections - The company is projected to have EPS of 0.48 yuan and 0.50 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BVPS) of 6.58 yuan and 6.84 yuan [4][21]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -1% 7% 16% 25% 33% 42% 50% 59% 2024.09 2025.01 2025.05 2025.09 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,826.84 | 0.38 | | 深证成指 | | 12,666.84 | 0.61 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,467.57 | 0.16 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,278.17 | 0.40 | | 中证 | 500 | 6,992.12 | 1.13 | | 中证 | 1000 | ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 酿酒机器人领涨 A 股小幅上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：电池新能源领涨 A 股震荡上行》 2025-09-05 《市场分析：消费新能源领涨 A 股宽幅震荡》 2025-09-04 《市场分析：游戏光伏行业领涨 A 股震荡整 固》 2025-09-03 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 09 月 08 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周一（09 月 08 日）A 股市场低开高走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低 开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在 3831 点附近遭遇阻力，随后股指震荡回 落，午后再度企稳回升，盘中机器人、酿酒、汽车零部件以及医疗 器械等行业表现较好；银行、保险、证券以及商业百货等行业表现 较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡上行的运行特征。创业板市场周 一震荡回落，创业板成分指数全天表现弱于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [12][33] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.959 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.08%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.609 billion yuan, up 10.54% year-on-year [6][12] - The increase in revenue is driven by a 12.97% rise in electricity generation, totaling 52.752 billion kWh, attributed to favorable water conditions and increased installed capacity [7][12] - The company maintains a competitive electricity price, 0.4 cents higher than the average market price in Yunnan province, ensuring a strong market position [7][12] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities increased by 14.3% year-on-year, reflecting improved sales revenue and reduced capital expenditures [8][12] - The company’s financial costs decreased by 1.39% to 1.319 billion yuan, with a financial cost rate of 10.23%, indicating improved debt structure [9][12] - The company plans to enhance its clean energy base, focusing on hydropower and new energy development, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 [12][13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a basic earnings per share of 0.25 yuan, a 13.64% increase year-on-year [6][12] - The weighted average return on equity rose to 7.22%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [6][12] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s gross profit margin stands at 60%, with a net asset return rate of 6.19% [2][12] - The total installed capacity reached 33.5374 million kW, with a significant increase in new energy capacity [7][12] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 9.375 billion yuan, 9.893 billion yuan, and 10.390 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.52, 0.55, and 0.58 yuan [12][13]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the A-share market, driven by supportive government policies and improving liquidity conditions, with a focus on sectors such as batteries, energy metals, semiconductors, and electronic components for investment opportunities [9][15][18]. Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,812.51, up by 1.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 3.89% to 12,590.56, indicating a strong performance in the domestic market [3]. - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 15.41 and 45.40, respectively, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][15]. International Market Performance - Major international indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down by 0.67% and the S&P 500 down by 0.45%, while the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.62% [4]. Industry Analysis - The food and beverage sector saw a significant increase in trading volume, with a total of 380.43 billion shares traded in August, reflecting a 53.45 billion share increase from July [19]. - The chemical industry index rose by 10.21% in August, with the fluorochemical, carbon fiber, and modified plastics sectors performing particularly well [22]. - The lithium battery sector experienced a notable recovery, with revenue and net profit growth of 13.78% and 28.07% respectively in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong rebound from previous declines [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the white liquor, soft drink, health products, baking, and snack sectors for September 2025, highlighting specific stocks such as Yingjia Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [21]. - In the chemical sector, it is recommended to look for investment opportunities in pesticide, organic silicon, and polyester filament industries due to expected improvements in supply-demand dynamics [23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of government policies on the lithium battery and new energy sectors, particularly in relation to the ongoing "involution" reforms aimed at enhancing global competitiveness [26][27].

Macro Environment - The economic data for August indicates a stable overall economic volume in China, with strong growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors, particularly in aviation, shipbuilding, electrical machinery, and electronic information industries [6][12] - Consumer demand showed a slight decline, with total retail sales and commodity retail sales experiencing a slowdown in year-on-year growth, but recovery is expected as national subsidy funds are gradually disbursed in the second half of the year [6][12] - Fixed asset investment growth remains stable overall, although real estate development investment continues to be a drag [6][12] - Inflationary pressures are easing, with core CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year, marking an expansion in growth for three consecutive months [6][12] Policy Environment - In August, policies continued to focus on technological innovation and the real economy, with the central bank and seven departments issuing guidelines to support financing for high-end manufacturing and technology innovation enterprises [6][12] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission modified regulations to enhance the evaluation standards for securities companies, promoting the introduction of medium to long-term funds into the equity market, which is expected to boost liquidity in the A-share market [6][12] Market Performance - In August, the bond market saw a significant rise in risk appetite due to policies aimed at promoting fair competition and maintaining normal industry order, leading to expectations of price recovery [6][50] - The equity market remained strong, with significant gains in technology and small-cap stocks, particularly the ChiNext 50 (up 69.87%), North Star 50 (up 50.78%), and Sci-Tech 50 (up 45.14%) [6][56] - The technology (TMT) sector rose by 55.39%, advanced manufacturing by 33.73%, and healthcare by 29.64%, driven by high midstream manufacturing sector performance and supportive policies [6][56] Monthly Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests that due to the continuous increase in risk appetite, the market is showing a preference for small-cap stocks and growth over value [6][76] - With the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, risk appetite is expected to further increase, driving up TMT and cyclical sectors [6][76] - If the TMT sector enters a correction, it is recommended to gradually increase allocations to financials, transportation, and consumer sectors [6][76] Industry Performance - In August, the top-performing industries included telecommunications (up 34.41%), electronics (up 24.79%), and comprehensive sectors (up 21.9%), while the lowest performers were construction decoration (up 1.85%) and oil and petrochemicals (up 1.37%) [6][65] - The net financing amounts were highest in the electronics sector (784.24 billion), followed by computing (248.04 billion) and telecommunications (235.51 billion) [6][71]