智能 GENER 赋能三大银行业务板块, 抢占市场先机 ■ ■ The better the question. The better the answer. The better the world works. ゴ 安永 Shape the future with confidence 聚 信 心 塑 未 来 目录 | | AI蕴含巨大机遇: 从优化到重塑 | 2 | 明事情: 业务团队主导+技术团队赋能 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P | 对投资回报率的新思考 | 4 | AI平台赋能可持续发展 | | 10 | 数据构成重大挑战 | 6 | 技术选项: 云架构或本地部署+自建或外购 | | | AI的规模化应用 亟需新技能助力 | 8 | 负责任AI聚焦风险管控 | 摘要 结语 推荐举措 联系方式 摘要 精要 人工智能（AI）赋能各行各业，但在对公银行业务 领域机遇更多。无论是在信贷和支付，还是在外汇 领域,相关银行业务流程复杂、文件繁多,且监管 严格,高度适配AI技术,有利于提升效率、深化洞 察、挖掘竞争优势。 不过，人工智能应用的推进节奏并不相同。虽然几 乎每家银行 ...

重塑肌会管理 的四大趋势 对公银行业务未来展望 The better the question. The better the answer. The better the world works. 二 安永 Shape the future with confidence 聚信心 塑未来 ■ ■ ■ ■ 日家 06 财资自动化从流程效率向业务 智能化演进 11 数据驱动型服务重塑银行的企业 现金管理角色 16 行业定制化解决方案成为对公银 行业务的标准范式 20 区块链市场基础设施：打造价值交 换新方式和银行增长新机遇 26 联系安永 安永未来银行业务研究与前沿报告 安永对公银行业务未来研究为我们的前沿报告系列刊物提供了内容基础，是对2020年起发布的 相关研究报告的延续。发布《现金管理的未来图景》报告之后，我们还计划于今年晚些时候发布 《企业融资的未来图景》报告。 2 | 重塑现金管理的四大趋势 下载 三三 "未来不同往昔"。这句老话恰如其分地映照出对公银行现金管理业务的发展前景。从诸多方 面看，未来实则已至。最具魄力的银行正在积极把握机遇，通过量身定制的解决方案及服务体 验,不断丰富其价值主张、拓展现金 ...

Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached RMB 66 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%[9] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, indicating strong consumer resilience[4] Consumption and Retail - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to RMB 24.5 trillion, growing by 5.0% year-on-year[25] - The "trade-in" policy for five major categories drove sales of RMB 1.6 trillion, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024[4] Foreign Trade - China's total goods trade reached RMB 21.8 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%[32] - High-tech product exports grew by 12.5%, with industrial robots seeing a remarkable growth of 61.5%[32] Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment growth fell to 2.8% year-on-year, with real estate remaining a significant challenge[20] - Manufacturing and infrastructure investments are expected to improve marginally in the third quarter due to policy support[20] Policy Outlook - Fiscal expenditure reached RMB 18.8 trillion, an increase of 8.9%, setting a historical high[42] - The government plans to enhance consumption through policies focusing on service consumption and digitalization[42]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in 2024 Core Insights - The average revenue of the top 30 listed real estate companies in China is projected to decline by approximately 13.83% in 2024, totaling around RMB 2.77 trillion [9] - The average gross margin for these companies is expected to decrease to about 14.42%, down by 1.86% from the previous year [13] - The average net profit margin is projected to be around -10.81%, reflecting a significant decline of 12.45% compared to the previous year [16] - The average return on equity is expected to drop to approximately -20.75%, a decrease of 16.44% from 2023 [59] Summary by Sections 1. Revenue Overview - The total revenue for the top 30 listed real estate companies in 2024 is estimated at RMB 2.77 trillion, a decline of 13.83% year-on-year [9] - Financial Street leads the revenue growth with an increase of 51.74%, reaching RMB 190.75 billion [8] - 20 companies experienced revenue declines, with Midea Real Estate facing the largest drop at 94.94% [9] 2. Gross Margin Overview - The average gross margin for the top 30 companies is projected to be 14.42%, down 1.86% from the previous year [13] - Midea Real Estate shows the highest increase in gross margin at approximately 24.21% [14] - 23 companies reported a decline in gross margin, with Jinhui experiencing the largest drop of 30.80% [13] 3. Net Profit Overview - The average net profit for the top 30 companies is expected to be a loss of RMB 11.65 billion, a decline of 62.09 billion from a profit of RMB 50.44 billion in 2023 [23] - China Resources leads in net profit with RMB 336.78 billion, although this represents a 9.72% decrease from the previous year [24] - Over 70% of companies reported a decline in net profit, with Vanke transitioning from a profit of RMB 204.56 billion to a loss of approximately RMB 487.04 billion [23] 4. Inventory Overview - The total inventory for the top 30 companies is projected to be approximately RMB 60.85 billion, a decrease of 13.58% year-on-year [33] - Only one company, Ruian, reported an increase in inventory, with a growth of 16.03% [33] - Midea Real Estate experienced the largest inventory decline at 99.11% [33] 5. Liquidity Ratios - The average current ratio for the top 30 companies is expected to be 152.86%, a slight increase of 0.15% from the previous year [42] - 16 companies reported a decline in their current ratios, with Xinda showing the largest drop of 39.17% [42] 6. Cash Short-term Debt Ratio - The average cash short-term debt ratio is projected to be 1.52, a decrease of 0.11 from the previous year [54] - Ocean Group has the lowest cash short-term debt ratio at 0.01, while Binhai has the highest at 5.53 [54] 7. Return on Equity Overview - The average return on equity is expected to be -20.75%, a decline of 16.44% from 2023 [59] - Only two companies, Jinmao and New Town, are expected to report positive returns on equity [59]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the banking industry Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges faced by the banking industry due to a prolonged low interest rate environment, which has led to a decrease in net interest margins and interest income [15][24] - Despite these challenges, the banking sector has managed to maintain stable net profits and revenue through cost reduction and efficiency improvements [26][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of diversifying income sources and enhancing capital strength to navigate the current economic landscape [16][17][18] Summary by Sections Overview: Path to High-Quality Development in a Low-Interest Rate Era - The average net interest margin for listed banks has decreased to 1.52%, down 17 basis points year-on-year, marking five consecutive years of decline [15] - The report anticipates that the low interest rate environment will persist, impacting banks' operating income significantly [15] Continuous Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement - Listed banks achieved a net profit of RMB 22,219.45 billion in 2024, a growth of 2.42% compared to 2023 [28] - The overall revenue for listed banks was RMB 58,702.51 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 0.06% year-on-year [38] Serving the Real Economy - Banks are focusing on supporting new productive forces and enhancing their service capabilities in key areas such as pension finance and digital finance [18][20] Facing Transformation Challenges - The report discusses the need for banks to explore new retail development dynamics and adapt to changing consumer needs [18] Social Responsibility and Sustainable Development - Listed banks are increasingly focusing on green finance, with a total green loan balance of RMB 27.72 trillion, growing by 20.60% year-on-year [20] Deepening Risk Control - The non-performing loan balance for listed banks reached RMB 22,866.67 billion, with a slight decrease in the average non-performing loan ratio to 1.26% [22] Embracing Artificial Intelligence - The report notes that 25 listed banks disclosed technology investment amounts totaling RMB 197.27 billion, indicating a focus on improving operational efficiency through technology [18] Outlook - The report projects that the banking sector will continue to face uncertainties and challenges in 2025, necessitating a focus on policy alignment and service to the real economy [24]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the banking sector, with a focus on the performance of different types of banks, highlighting a decline in net profits for A-share listed banks in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [3][20]. Core Insights - The net profit of 42 A-share listed banks decreased by 1.09% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with large banks showing a decline of 1.90% and national joint-stock banks declining by 1.98%. In contrast, city commercial banks and rural commercial banks reported growth in net profits of 5.35% and 4.21%, respectively [3][8]. - Total assets of the listed banks reached RMB 31,402.47 billion at the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a growth of 3.94% compared to the end of 2024. This growth was driven by city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, which saw increases of 6.53% and 4.48%, respectively [13][14]. - The loan-to-asset ratio slightly increased to 56.34% in Q1 2025, up from 56.07% at the end of 2024, indicating a stable lending environment [18]. Summary by Sections Net Profit Trends - In Q1 2025, net profits for large banks fell by 1.90%, while national joint-stock banks saw a decline of 1.98%. City commercial banks and rural commercial banks, however, experienced growth in net profits [3][4][8]. Revenue Trends - Total operating income for the 42 listed banks was RMB 1,447.37 billion in Q1 2025, down 1.72% year-on-year. Large banks and national joint-stock banks reported declines of 1.51% and 3.91%, while city commercial banks and rural commercial banks saw increases of 2.96% and 0.21%, respectively [8][9]. Asset Growth - Total assets for the listed banks reached RMB 31,402.47 billion, marking a 3.94% increase from the end of 2024. This growth was led by city commercial banks and rural commercial banks [13][14]. Loan Performance - The loan-to-asset ratio increased to 56.34% in Q1 2025, indicating a stable lending environment across the banking sector [18]. Non-Performing Loans - Non-performing loans increased by RMB 82.12 billion to RMB 2,243.57 billion in Q1 2025, with a slight decrease in the average non-performing loan ratio to 1.23% [20][30]. Provision Coverage - The average provision coverage ratio decreased to 237.99% in Q1 2025, down 1.98 percentage points from the end of 2024, indicating a potential concern regarding the banks' ability to cover non-performing loans [24][26].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global retail market is undergoing significant transformation, with a projected market size of $30.6 trillion by 2024, growing at an annual rate of 3.76% [4][6] - The Asia-Pacific region, particularly China, India, and Japan, is expected to be the fastest-growing market, accounting for 40% of global retail sales by 2028 [4][6] - E-commerce is significantly reshaping consumer behavior, with online retail sales expected to account for 21% of total retail sales by 2025 [4][10] - Local brand internationalization is a growing trend, with Chinese brands like Pop Mart and Heytea expanding globally through strategic partnerships with shopping centers [4][11] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The global retail market is experiencing profound changes, driven by middle-class expansion, rapid urbanization, and internet penetration [4] - Shopping centers are becoming crucial partners for brands looking to expand internationally, providing localized support and innovative marketing strategies [4] 2. Understanding the Global Retail Market - The global retail market is projected to reach $30.6 trillion in 2024, a 4.37% increase from 2023 [6] - In China, the retail market is expected to reach 48.79 trillion RMB in 2024, with online retail sales growing by 7.2% [6] 3. Cooperation Strategy Framework - Shopping centers play a vital role in supporting brand internationalization by offering high-traffic retail spaces and strategic market positioning [18] - Brands face challenges such as identifying the right customer base and establishing local relationships when entering new markets [19][20] 4. Successful Cooperation Case Studies - Pop Mart's expansion into Southeast Asia through partnerships with shopping centers has significantly increased its sales and brand awareness [26] - A luxury brand collaborated with a cultural retail landmark in Hong Kong to create an immersive art retail space, enhancing consumer experience and brand image [29] 5. Multi-Dimensional Marketing Strategies - Shopping centers utilize various marketing strategies, including digital integration, cultural adaptation, and community engagement, to help brands establish recognition in new markets [31][38] - Technology-driven consumer interactions, such as AR and VR experiences, enhance shopping convenience and brand engagement [37][38] 6. Conclusion / Future and Action Recommendations - Shopping centers should continue to leverage their platform advantages to support brand internationalization through innovation and strategic partnerships [44]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in consumer behavior towards personalized and experiential consumption, driven by a desire for quality and emotional value [6][12][18] - The government is implementing measures to boost consumption and improve the consumption environment, indicating a strategic focus on expanding domestic demand [5][8] - The report identifies three key drivers for the new consumption era: demand-side linkage, supply-side collaboration, and supply chain integration [25][33] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report discusses the government's focus on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as a strategic initiative for 2025 [5] 2. Portrait of New Consumerism - Personalized and quality consumption is becoming mainstream, with consumers seeking unique products that meet their individual needs [14][16] - The "first-release economy" is driving market growth through limited supply and exclusive designs, creating a sense of scarcity [15] - Consumers are increasingly concerned about product quality and sustainability, reflecting a shift from basic functionality to a focus on high-quality, eco-friendly products [16][17] 3. Keys to Unlocking a New Era of Consumption - Demand-side linkage is crucial, as consumer behavior is influenced by travel experiences that trigger luxury purchases [26][28] - Supply-side collaboration is evident as luxury brands invest in tourism infrastructure to enhance consumer experiences [29][30] - Supply chain integration allows luxury brands to control the entire service process, enhancing quality and brand loyalty [32] 4. Implications for Enterprises and Investors - Enterprises face opportunities and challenges as consumer preferences shift towards high-quality, personalized, and sustainable products [36] - Investors should focus on the luxury goods sector, high-end tourism, and cultural entertainment industries, which are poised for growth [39][40] 5. Conclusion - The report concludes that the evolving consumer landscape requires brands to create meaningful experiences and emotional connections with consumers, moving beyond mere material growth [42]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for the Chinese economy, projecting a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [4][30]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy demonstrated resilience in 2024, with GDP reaching RMB 134.91 trillion, marking a year-on-year growth of 5% [5]. - The expansion of domestic demand and technological innovation are identified as dual drivers for economic development in 2025, aiming to enhance quality and sustainability [30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumption recovery, with policies such as the "old-for-new" initiative expected to stimulate demand and support economic growth [4][30]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - In 2024, China's total import and export value reached RMB 43.85 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 5%, driven by high-end equipment exports increasing by over 40% [3][23]. - High-tech manufacturing showed strong resilience, with production growth rates of 38.7% for new energy vehicles, 22.2% for integrated circuits, and 14.2% for industrial robots [3][7]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - The consumer market showed signs of recovery, with significant growth in household appliances and sports entertainment products, achieving year-on-year increases of 12.3% and 11.1% respectively [19]. - The report highlights the need for policies to enhance consumer purchasing power, such as reducing social security contributions to increase disposable income [19]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth, excluding real estate, was 7.2% in 2024, with high-tech industries seeing an 8.0% increase, particularly in aerospace and professional technical services [16]. - The report anticipates that local governments will accelerate investments in new productive forces, focusing on digital infrastructure [16]. Foreign Trade - The report notes that foreign trade remains robust, with the "Belt and Road" initiative countries accounting for over 50% of total trade, and exports to these regions growing by 9.6% [23]. - It suggests that companies should adapt to global trade changes by diversifying export markets and enhancing overseas production bases [23]. Technological Innovation - The report stresses the importance of technological innovation as a core driver for economic development, with initiatives like "Artificial Intelligence+" expected to foster cross-industry integration and new business models [30]. - It highlights the government's commitment to supporting specialized and innovative enterprises through financial assistance for digital transformation [30].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the financial services industry. Core Insights - The global financial services regulatory landscape is increasingly fragmented, with countries prioritizing national interests over international cooperation, leading to a rise in local standards [9][10] - Financial institutions must enhance resilience to external threats, focusing on operational resilience, sustainable finance, and the management of non-bank financial institutions [9][33] - Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying around consumer treatment, financial inclusion, and the prevention of fraud and scams [9][52] Summary by Sections 1. Regulatory Fragmentation Intensifies - Regulatory fragmentation is exacerbated as policymakers prioritize national interests, complicating global business management and potentially increasing costs [10] - The implementation of Basel III reforms varies by country, creating challenges for banks operating internationally [12][14] 2. Enhancing Resilience to External Threats - Financial institutions are urged to improve operational resilience in light of recent global events, including geopolitical tensions and IT failures [35][39] - New regulations, such as the EU's Digital Operational Resilience Act, will come into effect, requiring financial institutions to manage risks associated with third-party technology providers [39][40] - The non-bank financial sector's growth raises concerns about systemic risks, prompting calls for enhanced oversight [44][47] 3. Consumer Treatment - Regulatory bodies are increasingly focused on enhancing consumer welfare, with new regulations emerging globally to ensure fair treatment and protection against fraud [54][56] - Financial institutions are encouraged to adopt practices that prioritize customer needs and improve service standards [54][55] 4. Risk Management - The report emphasizes the need for financial institutions to address long-standing weaknesses in risk management and governance frameworks, particularly in light of recent banking crises [66][68] - Regulatory expectations for board accountability and risk culture are becoming stricter, with a focus on proactive identification and management of potential risks [68][69]