Group 1 - The report highlights the recent strengthening of the US dollar, which has risen from a low of 100.157 on September 27 to a high of 107.064 on November 14, marking a 6.9% increase. Non-US currencies have depreciated significantly, with the USD/JPY, USD/MYR, and USD/THB falling by 10.10%, 9.2%, and 8.63% respectively [2][11][13] - The primary reasons for the dollar's rise include the ongoing improvement in the US economy, a recovering labor market, rising inflation, and the impact of Trump's election leading to a decrease in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This has resulted in a strong short-term outlook for the dollar index, while non-US currencies face significant depreciation pressure [5][13][19] - In the medium to long term, Trump's policies, including immigration and tariff measures, are expected to be implemented, which will further boost the US economy and inflation. The imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods and other countries will likely lead to a significant impact on the global economy, potentially resulting in a scenario where the US economy stands out, with a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][28] Group 2 - The report details that the US economy is showing signs of accelerated growth, with the October PMI for manufacturing at 48.5, exceeding expectations, and the services PMI at 55.3, indicating a robust economic outlook. The labor market is also improving, with a stable unemployment rate of 4.1% and a 4% year-on-year increase in average hourly earnings [14][18][19] - Inflation risks are rising, with the October CPI at 2.6%, up from 2.4% the previous month. Core CPI remains steady at 3.3%. The report anticipates that inflation will continue to rise due to factors such as rental and food inflation, as well as Trump's policies that may further increase domestic demand and supply-side pressures [19][25] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and the shift in its monetary policy stance indicate a cautious approach to future rate cuts, with market expectations for fewer cuts in 2025. The Fed's focus on economic data suggests that the need for aggressive rate cuts may diminish, impacting the overall monetary policy landscape [20][22][27]

Group 1: Loan and Financing Data - In October, new RMB loans increased by 500 billion, down from 1.59 trillion in the previous month[1] - The social financing scale increment in October was 1.3958 trillion, significantly lower than the previous value of 3.7634 trillion[2] - By the end of October, the total social financing scale was 403.45 trillion, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, but a month-on-month decline of 0.2%[5] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Policy - M2, the broad money supply, grew by 7.5% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 7.0% and the previous value of 6.8%[3] - M1, the narrow money supply, showed a year-on-year decline of 6.1%, which is an improvement from the expected decline of 7.2%[3] - The overall increase in money supply indicates a continued reasonable growth, supporting a loose monetary policy[3] Group 3: Economic Implications - The decline in new social financing and credit demand suggests a slowdown in credit transmission from broad money to credit[5] - The improvement in household loan demand, particularly in short-term loans, is attributed to policies stimulating consumption[4] - The overall financing demand is expected to gradually recover as fiscal policies and real estate measures take effect, despite current short-term declines[5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, China's CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year, below the expected 0.4% and the previous value of 0.4%[1] - The month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.3%, compared to an expected decrease of 0.1% and a previous value of 0%[2] - Core CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, indicating a slight increase in consumer prices[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - October's PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, which is worse than the expected decrease of 2.5% and the previous decrease of 2.8%[4] - The month-on-month PPI decline has narrowed due to recovering domestic industrial demand, despite the overall downward trend in international commodity prices[4] - The impact of production material prices on PPI was a decrease of 3.3%, contributing approximately 2.45 percentage points to the PPI decline[4] Group 3: Market Trends - Domestic traditional infrastructure investment is accelerating, while manufacturing investment remains high; however, real estate investment demand is still weak in the short term[5] - The overall demand for terminal goods is recovering, supported by seasonal demand and increased monetary and fiscal policy efforts[5] - Future CPI is expected to rise due to improved market demand and the gradual elimination of high base effects from the previous year[5]

Group 1: Trade Overview - In October 2024, China's total import and export volume reached $522.398 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, compared to a previous value of 1.5%[1] - Exports amounted to $309.058 billion, up 12.7% year-on-year, exceeding the expected increase of 5%[2] - Imports were $213.34 billion, down 2.3% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decline of 2%[3] Group 2: Trade Surplus and Key Partners - The trade surplus for October was $95.27 billion, higher than the expected $75 billion and the previous value of $81.71 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 71.35%[4] - ASEAN was the largest trading partner, with a trade volume of $82.1 billion, accounting for 15.71% of total trade, followed by the EU at $64.8 billion (12.4%) and the US at $59.8 billion (11.45%)[5] - The largest export category was electromechanical products, which accounted for 60.8% of total exports, with a year-on-year growth of 13.7%[6] Group 3: Import Dynamics - The largest import category was also electromechanical products, which accounted for 40.53% of total imports, with a year-on-year growth of 2.38%[7] - The main import partner was ASEAN, with imports totaling $34 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.33%[8] - The trade deficit was most significant for crude oil, with a deficit of $24.3 billion, a decrease of $1.4 billion from the previous period[9]

Economic Growth - In Q3 2024, China's GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.5% but down from the previous value of 4.7%[1] - The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 0.9%, slightly below the expected 1% and up from the previous 0.7%[1] Industrial Production - In September, the industrial added value increased by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.5% and the previous value of 4.5%, marking a rise of 0.9 percentage points[2] - The mining sector grew by 3.7%, manufacturing by 5.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 10.1%[2] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods in September rose by 3.2% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.5% and the previous 2.1%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points[2] - Categories such as household appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a significant increase of 20.5% year-on-year, while automotive sales grew by 0.4%[2] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to September, fixed asset investment grew by 3.4%, slightly above the expected 3.3% and unchanged from the previous value[1] - Infrastructure investment in September increased by 2.2%, up from the previous 1.2%, marking a rise of 1 percentage point[3] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment fell by 9.4% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous value[3] - The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 10.8%, although the decline narrowed by 1.8 percentage points from the previous value[3] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment in September rose by 9.7% year-on-year, up from the previous 8.0%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points[3] - High-tech industries continue to maintain a high growth rate, supported by government policies and market demand[3] Policy Impact - Recent policies aimed at stimulating the real estate market and increasing fiscal spending are expected to support economic recovery and stabilize the market[4] - The overall domestic demand is showing signs of recovery, with positive expectations for future growth driven by policy measures[4]

Trade Overview - In September 2024, China's total import and export volume reached $525.714 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, down from the previous value of 5.2% and a decline of 3.7%[1] - Exports amounted to $303.712 billion, up 2.4% year-on-year, but below the expected increase of 6% and the previous increase of 8.7%, reflecting a decline of 6.3%[2] - Imports totaled $222 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, falling short of the expected 0.9% and the previous increase of 0.5%, showing a decline of 0.2%[3] Trade Surplus and Key Partners - The trade surplus was $81.71 billion, lower than the expected $89.8 billion and the previous $91.02 billion, but still up 8.8% year-on-year[4] - ASEAN was the largest trading partner, with a trade volume of $83.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.92%[2] - The second-largest partner was the EU, with a trade volume of $65.1 billion, showing a slight decline of 0.43% year-on-year[2] Export and Import Dynamics - The main export products included electromechanical products, accounting for 60.7% of total exports, with a year-on-year growth of 3%[3] - Imports of electromechanical products also increased by 5.05%, making up 40.61% of total imports[4] - The largest trade surplus was in automobiles, amounting to $8.34 billion, while the largest trade deficit was in crude oil, at $25.7 billion[5]

Economic Overview - The fundamental conditions of China's economy remain unchanged, characterized by a broad market, strong resilience, and significant potential[1] - Economic recovery has slowed down since Q3 2024, with consumer confidence and income growth declining, evidenced by a mere 2.1% year-on-year increase in social retail sales in August[3] - Exports grew unexpectedly by 8.5% in August, but trade tensions with the US and EU pose increased risks[3] Policy Measures - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes the need for targeted and effective policy measures to achieve annual economic and social development goals[2] - Fiscal policy will focus on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments, ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures, and accelerating the issuance of special bonds[6] - Monetary policy will involve lowering the reserve requirement ratio and implementing significant interest rate cuts to support economic recovery[7] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market remains weak, with August seeing a 12.6% year-on-year decline in sales area and a 17.1% drop in sales value[8] - Policies will be adjusted to stabilize the real estate market, including optimizing existing stock and improving quality[8] Capital Market - Efforts will be made to boost the capital market by guiding long-term funds into the market and addressing barriers to investment from social security and insurance funds[9] - Recent monetary easing measures and supportive policies for the capital market are expected to enhance market sentiment[9]

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 病 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758120 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 据海关统计，中国2024年8月进出口总额（以美元计）5262.73亿美元，同比 5.2%，前值为7.1%，下降1.9%。其中，出口3086.47亿美元，同比上升8.7%，预 期上升6.6%，前值上升7%，上升1.7%，超预期上升；进口2176.26亿美元，同比上 升0.5%，预期上升2.5%，前值上升7.2%，下降6.7%；贸易顺差910.2亿美元，预期 811亿美元，前值846.5亿美元。 2024年9月10日 [Table8_T月itl国e] 出口好于预期，进出口仍具韧性 ——宏观数据观察 [table_main] 事件要点： 摘要： 8月我国出口受去年基数效应较低，海外需求仍然具有一定的韧性，欧盟需求短期有所加 快以及赶出口等原因，高于市场预期。8月以来，全球制造业景气有所回落，增长有所放 缓，美国以及全球需求有所放缓，对出口支撑有所减弱。国内方面，经济复苏不及预期且 偏慢，投资需求增速有 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 宏观 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758120 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 2024年9月9日 [Tab8le月_TitCleP]I同比继续回升但低于市场预期 ——宏观数据观察 [table_main] 事件要点： 中国9月CPI同比增长0.6%，预期0.7%，前值0.5%；8月PPI同比增长-1.8%， 预期-1.4%，前值-0.8%。 摘要： 8月CPI同比回升但低于市场预期。上游端受国际大宗商品价格回落及国内部分工业品市场 需求不足等因素影响，全国PPI环比继续下降，由于需求不足工业品价格大幅下跌，同比 降幅扩大；8月份，消费需求整体平稳，但部分地区高温降雨天气影响以及猪肉价格大幅 上涨，CPI环比超季节性上涨，同比小幅回升但低于预期，短期通胀仍旧较低。目前国内 传统基建投资放缓、制造业投资维持高位，房地产投资需求仍旧偏弱，以及需求季节性放 缓，整体终端商品需求仍旧偏弱，内需型商品价格维持偏弱震荡。而且，由于国外需求放 缓以及中东地缘风险扰动减弱，原油价格整体回 ...

商品市场的影响。 但由于需求弹性弱于供给，供应整体较为充裕。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 15 Fin 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758120 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 国内外宏观：海外宏观方面，由于美国经济有所放缓、通胀回落、美联储释放9月降息信号， 美元持续走弱。虽然短期需求整体放缓，但市场对于美国经济衰退的担忧缓解，能源、有色 等国际大宗商品价格短期有一定的支撑；市场风险偏好大幅升温。后期继续关注经济、通胀 情况以及美联储货币政策预期对市场的影响。国内宏观方面，国内经济复苏动能有所放缓， 贸易摩擦风险加大，市场情绪低迷，短期国内风险偏好降温。虽然政治局会议强调实现年内 经济目标，央行连续降息、地产政策刺激进一步加强、财政支持设备更新，以及以旧换新消 费刺激政策落地，但政策力度不及预期，短期对国内股市和人民币汇率的支撑不强。中期关 注国内地产政策刺激效果、国内消费、投资、国内基建和房地产实际需求情况对内需型大宗 2024年9月2日 [Table_Title] 美联储即将开启降息，国内政策支持力度有 ...