1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflation data in the US in July was lower than expected, leading to an increase in global risk appetite. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has strengthened, and the US President and Treasury Secretary have called for rate cuts. In China, the manufacturing PMI in July decreased, economic growth slowed down, but policies such as personal consumption loan fiscal subsidies and the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce period may boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, the treasury bond may experience a high - level shock and correction, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Overseas**: The US CPI annual rate in July was 2.7%, the core CPI annual rate reached a five - month high at 3.1%. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has strengthened. The US dollar index declined, and global risk appetite increased. [2] - **Domestic**: China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The trade deficit decreased, and the policy of personal consumption loan fiscal subsidies may boost consumption. The Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, and domestic risk appetite continued to rise. [2] - **Asset Performance**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, with a short - term cautious long position. The treasury bond is expected to experience a high - level shock and correction, with cautious observation. Different commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious long or observation strategies. [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as brain - computer interface, lithography machine, and diversified finance, the domestic stock market continued to rise. [3] - The economic growth in July slowed down, but policies may boost consumption, and the short - term macro - upward drive has increased. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies, with a short - term cautious long position. [3][4] Precious Metals - On Tuesday, precious metals fluctuated at a high level. The inflation data in the US in July was mixed, supporting the probability of a rate cut in September. The economic data continued to weaken, and the market expected a 94.8% probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Gold has a long - term bullish outlook, and long - term positions can be considered when it pulls back to the support level. [5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to rebound on Tuesday. The market risk appetite increased due to the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce. The actual demand continued to weaken, and the inventory increased. The scope of production restrictions expanded, and the steel market was dominated by the macro - logic in the short term, with prices fluctuating strongly. [6] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore continued to strengthen on Tuesday. The scope of production restrictions in the north expanded, and the iron ore supply decreased. The steel mills mainly replenished inventory on a need - basis. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [6][7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat on Tuesday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys was acceptable, and the production in some regions increased. The ferroalloy price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [8] Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash was strong on Tuesday, driven by the expectation of supply tightening. The supply of soda ash increased, and the pattern of oversupply remained. The demand support was weak, and the profit decreased. The upward space of soda ash is limited. [9] - **Glass**: The main contract of glass fluctuated within a range on Tuesday. The daily melting volume of glass remained stable. The market expected production cuts due to policies. The terminal demand was weak, and the profit decreased. The glass price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, and the risk appetite rebounded. The Fed's dovish stance was strengthened. The Comex copper inventory was at a high level, and the terminal demand faced the risk of weakening. [12] - **Aluminum**: The closing price of aluminum rose slightly on Tuesday, affected by the general rise in commodities and the sharp rise in alumina. The fundamentals of aluminum weakened, with inventory accumulation. The medium - term upward space is limited. [12] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants increased. The demand was weak in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited. [12] - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased slightly. The supply of ore was tight, but the reduction in refined tin production was lower than expected. The terminal demand was weak, and the inventory decreased. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate opened high and closed low on Tuesday. The supply was affected by the suspension of a mine, and the market was bullish. The monthly supply - demand pattern changed from surplus to shortage. The trading margin and price limit were adjusted. [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon decreased on Tuesday. It was affected by the high price of polysilicon, cost factors, and market sentiment, and fluctuated strongly. [15][16] - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon rose on Tuesday. The increase in warehouse receipts reflected the willingness of enterprises for hedging and delivery. The photovoltaic industry had expectations, and the price was supported by the spot price. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. [16] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market evaluated the impact of the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce and the potential impact of the US - Russia summit. The lack of major drivers led to a weak - oscillation pattern in oil prices. [17] - **Asphalt**: The cost of crude oil stabilized, and the asphalt price fluctuated slightly. The inventory removal was limited, and it is expected to maintain a weak - oscillation pattern in the short term. [17][18] - **PX**: The PX price fluctuated narrowly. The PTA device had production cuts, and the PX device load was limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in the PTA device. [18] - **PTA**: The downstream filament planned to continue production cuts. The PTA basis increased slightly, and the demand was limited. The processing fee was low, and the supply pressure decreased. It is expected to balance supply and demand in August and oscillate within a range. [18] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price increased slightly with the coal - based cost. The inventory pressure was still high, and the supply was expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [19] - **Short Fiber**: The price of short fiber decreased due to the weakening of the sector. The terminal orders were average, and the inventory increased. It is expected to be short - biased in the medium term. [20][21] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang fluctuated upward. The supply decreased, and the demand in the inland increased. The inventory in the port increased. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and it is expected to oscillate. [21] - **PP**: The spot market of PP was sorted out narrowly. The cost - profit improved, the supply increased, and the demand was in the off - season. The price of the 09 contract may have limited fluctuations, and the 01 contract is short - biased. [21] - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE increased. The supply pressure remained, and the demand showed signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - biased in the short term. [22] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 8 - month USDA soybean supply - demand adjustment was unexpectedly bullish. The expected harvest area of US soybeans decreased, the yield per acre increased, the export volume decreased, and the ending inventory decreased. The global ending inventory also decreased. [23] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The cost of imported soybeans was expected to be stable, and the worry about supply contraction in the fourth quarter was relieved. The import of Canadian rapeseed may be blocked, and the domestic soybean meal substitution consumption is expected to increase. The price of domestic soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to rise further in the short term. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of rapeseed oil in the port was high, and the supply contraction was expected. The cost of soybean oil was stable, and the supply - demand situation improved in the fourth quarter. The palm oil price was supported by factors such as inventory and import demand. The overall valuation of oils and fats was slightly high, and attention should be paid to the supplementary increase of soybean oil. [24] - **Corn**: The supply of corn in Anhui and Xinjiang is expected to be sufficient in late August. The spot price is stable in August, and the basis is good, which has a certain stabilizing effect on the futures. [25][26] - **Pigs**: After consecutive price drops, farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices. The slaughter volume may decrease, and the supply pressure may be relieved after the Beginning of Autumn. The pig price may stabilize. [26]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - Overseas, the US will release inflation data, which may influence the Fed's decision on a September rate cut. The US dollar is strengthening, and global risk appetite has cooled. Domestically, China's July manufacturing PMI decreased, economic growth slowed, the trade deficit declined, and net exports' contribution to the economy weakened. However, China has introduced childcare subsidies, and the Sino - US tariff truce has been extended, boosting domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; different commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious operations recommended [2]. Group 3: Summary by Categories 1. Macro - finance - Macroeconomic situation: Overseas, the focus is on US inflation data and Fed rate - cut expectations. Domestically, economic growth has slowed, but policies are expected to boost consumption, and tariff risks have decreased. Stock index: Short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds: Cautious observation is advised. Commodities: Different sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious operations recommended [2]. 2. Stock Index - The domestic stock market has risen, driven by sectors such as energy metals, batteries, and components. The economic growth has slowed, but policies and trade negotiations are expected to boost the market. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices declined on Monday. The market is concerned about US inflation data and Fed rate - cut expectations. The long - term view on gold is bullish, and long - term positions can be considered if it retraces to support levels [5]. 4. Black Metals - **Steel**: Prices rebounded on Monday. The market is still dominated by macro logic, and prices are expected to be oscillate strongly in the short term. Demand is weak, and inventory is rising, but supply is also high due to high profits [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices strengthened on Monday but were weaker than other black metals. Demand may weaken further due to production restrictions, and supply has decreased. Short - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices were flat on Monday. Demand is fair, and production in some regions is expected to increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. 5. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract oscillated on Monday. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high, suppressing prices. The upside is limited [9]. - **Glass**: The main contract oscillated on Monday. Supply may decrease due to policies, demand has slightly improved, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's dovish stance is strengthening, and risk appetite has recovered. However, copper inventory is high, and terminal demand may weaken [11]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price rose slightly on Monday. Fundamentals have weakened, and short - term attention should be paid to the 20 - day moving average support [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited [11]. - **Tin**: Supply has slightly increased, and terminal demand is weak. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate, and the upside is restricted [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Multiple contracts hit the daily limit on Monday. Supply has decreased, and the market is bullish in the short term. Attention should be paid to the mine - type change of remaining mines [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract rose on Monday. It is expected to oscillate strongly due to cost and sentiment factors [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract rose on Monday. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with support from spot prices and expectations [15]. 7. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is waiting for details of the US - Russia summit. Oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as Russian oil supply is not expected to be interrupted [16]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are low and stable, and asphalt prices have slightly recovered. The demand is weak, and the inventory is difficult to reduce, so it is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PX**: Prices have declined slightly. The supply is tight, and it is expected to oscillate while waiting for PTA device changes [16]. - **PTA**: The basis has recovered slightly, and supply and demand are expected to balance in August. It is expected to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Inventory has increased, and supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in the short term. It is expected to oscillate, with limited upside [17]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices have declined. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has increased slightly. Medium - term short positions can be considered [18]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased, and demand varies by region. It is expected to oscillate, with limited spread movement [18]. - **PP**: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak [18]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak [18]. 8. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Trump's call for China to increase soybean purchases has led to a price increase. The crop condition is good, but new sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report [19]. - **Soybean Meal/Canola Meal**: Domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are increasing, and spot prices are weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate around 2900 yuan/ton [20]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil inventory is increasing, but the supply is expected to tighten in the fourth quarter. The soybean - palm oil spread is inverted, and long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage opportunities can be considered. Rapeseed oil inventory has slightly decreased [20]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil production and inventory have increased, and exports are weak. Domestic import profits are inverted, and inventory is increasing [20]. - **Corn**: Supply is expected to be sufficient in August, and spot prices are stable. The basis is favorable, which stabilizes the futures price [21][22]. - **Pigs**: After price declines, farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Supply pressure may ease after the Beginning of Autumn, and pig prices may stabilize [22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: The US economic data continues to be weak, and precious metals are oscillating upward. The current focus has shifted from tariffs to economic data, and precious metals are supported by easing expectations in the short - term, with the medium - to long - term allocation logic remaining unchanged [2][3]. - **Black Metals**: The inventory increase of steel has expanded, and the futures and spot prices of steel and iron ore have continued to be weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term [4][5][6]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Glass production is expected to decrease, with short - term price expected to oscillate within a range [9]. - **Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The prices of copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by various factors such as macro policies, inventory, and demand, with expected short - term oscillations [10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The spot market is weak, and the supply - demand situation of crude oil, asphalt, PX, PTA, and other products is complex, with most products expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [14]. - **Agricultural Products**: Attention should be paid to the guidance of the August USDA and MPOB supply - demand reports. The prices of various agricultural products such as soybeans, oils, and grains are affected by factors like weather, supply - demand, and policies [18]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Last week, precious metals oscillated upward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 786.90 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 7279 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: The news of the US imposing a 39% tariff on Swiss gold triggered a sharp rise in the COMEX premium. The US economic data continued to weaken, with the July ISM non - manufacturing index at 50.1. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with a probability of nearly 90% [3]. - **Outlook**: Precious metals are supported by easing expectations in the short - term, and the medium - to long - term allocation logic remains unchanged. Next week, focus on the July US CPI data [3]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Situation**: The futures and spot markets of domestic steel continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volumes. The inflation data in July improved, and market sentiment recovered to some extent [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Real demand continued to weaken, with the inventory of five major steel products increasing by 230,000 tons week - on - week, and the apparent consumption continuing to decline. Steel supply was at a high level, with the output of five major steel products increasing by 17,900 tons week - on - week, and the output of rebar increasing by 100,000 tons [5]. - **Cost and Outlook**: The price of coking coal strengthened, and the cost support for steel remained strong. Steel prices are recommended to be treated with an interval oscillation mindset in the short - term [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak last Friday. The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and real demand was weak, with the hot metal output expected to further decrease [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: There were increasing rumors of production restrictions in the northern region [6]. Glass - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass remained stable week - on - week. There are expectations of production cuts due to macro anti - involution policies [9]. - **Demand**: The terminal real estate industry remained weak, but demand improved slightly, with the downstream deep - processing orders at 9.55 days at the end of July, increasing month - on - month [9]. - **Profit**: The profits of float glass using natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke as fuels decreased week - on - week. The glass price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals Copper - **Macro Factors**: Tariffs have basically been implemented, and the US - China 90 - day tariff truce agreement may be extended. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have increased significantly. The Comex copper inventory is at a multi - year high, and the terminal demand may weaken marginally [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of aluminum fell last Friday, affected by the decline in alumina. Alumina production remained high, with increased in - plant inventory and a large accumulation of warehouse receipts [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals of aluminum have weakened recently, with domestic social inventory increasing by 100,000 tons and LME inventory increasing by 130,000 tons compared to the low in late June [10]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply and Cost**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts [10]. - **Demand**: It is in the off - season, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but with limited upside [10][11]. Tin - **Supply**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The mining end is expected to be more relaxed [11]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is weak, with a 38% year - on - year decrease in new photovoltaic installations in June. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with limited upside [11]. Carbonate Lithium - **Supply**: The Fengxiawo Mine has stopped production, which is a short - term positive for supply. The production and inventory pressure are accumulating [12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The production in the north and south regions has increased, with a weekly output of 79,478 tons, an 8.1% week - on - week increase. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: It is a key anti - involution industry, with expectations remaining. The spot price provides support, and the short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Trends**: The US - Russia peace talks are ongoing, and the market expects the Russia - Ukraine conflict to ease. The spot market is weak, and the demand for crude oil is expected to decrease while supply increases [14]. - **Outlook**: There is long - term pressure on crude oil prices [14]. Asphalt - **Cost and Market**: The cost support of asphalt is weak due to the falling crude oil prices. The spot market is average, with low - to - medium trading volumes and limited inventory reduction [14]. - **Outlook**: Asphalt will continue to maintain a weak oscillating pattern [14]. PX - **Market Situation**: Short - term PTA device production has been cut, and PX devices are also operating at a limited capacity. The PXN spread is around 260 US dollars, and the PX outer market is at 831 US dollars. It will oscillate in the short - term [14]. PTA - **Market Indicators**: The PTA basis has continued to decline slightly, and downstream operating rates have increased slightly. The processing fee is low, and some major devices have cut production [15][16]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are expected to balance in August, and PTA will maintain an interval oscillation [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Inventory and Supply**: Port inventory has decreased slightly to 516,000 tons, but the expected import volume will increase, and domestic device operating rates will recover [16]. - **Outlook**: It may show a situation of slightly increased supply and demand in the short - term and maintain an oscillation [16]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: The price of short - fiber has decreased due to the weakening of the sector. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has accumulated slightly [16]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term [16]. Methanol - **Supply - Demand Situation**: There are concentrated maintenance in the supply of methanol, and the demand in the inland region is boosted by the restart of olefin plants, while the port is weak due to olefin maintenance and increased imports [16]. - **Outlook**: The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, with obvious regional differentiation, and the price is expected to oscillate [16]. PP - **Supply - Demand**: The cost - profit of PP has improved, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in mid - to late August. Demand is in the off - season, and industrial inventory has increased [17]. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract price fluctuation may be limited, and the 01 contract is still considered weak [17]. LLDPE - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure remains, and the demand shows signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market Indicators**: The net short position of soybean funds in the CBOT market has increased significantly. The US weather is favorable for crop growth, and new soybean sales are cold [18]. - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the August USDA supply - demand report. Soybean exports may be adjusted downward, and the price is expected to be under pressure [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories have continued to increase, and the spot market is weak. Soybean meal is traded around the cost logic, and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - **Soybean Oil**: The spot trading of soybean oil has improved, and there is a supply - tightening expectation in the fourth quarter. The soybean - palm oil spread is inverted, and there are opportunities for long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage [19]. - **Palm Oil**: The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil have increased in July, and exports are weak. The domestic import profit is inverted, and the price is expected to be under pressure at a high level in the short - term [19]. Corn - **Supply**: Corn will be listed in Anhui and Xinjiang in late August, with sufficient supply expected. The spot price is stable in August [19]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: Pig prices rebounded over the weekend. There is reluctance to sell at low prices, and the supply pressure may ease after the Beginning of Autumn [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the nomination of a temporary Fed governor by the US President has boosted market expectations of interest - rate cuts, weakening the US dollar index. However, the 10 - year US Treasury auction was unexpectedly weak, leading to higher Treasury yields. The implementation of the US "reciprocal tariff" has triggered risk - aversion sentiment, cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Trade deficit has decreased, and net exports' contribution to the economy has weakened. Policy support for child - rearing may boost consumption, and the extension of the China - US tariff truce by 90 days has reduced short - term tariff uncertainties. The expectation of a Fed rate cut has opened up space for domestic monetary policy and led to RMB appreciation, increasing domestic risk appetite [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks: stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at high levels in the short term; bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at high levels; different commodity sectors have varying trends, with some being more volatile and others more stable [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US dollar index is weakening, US Treasury yields are rising, and risk - aversion sentiment is increasing due to tariff policies. Domestically: Economic growth is slowing, trade deficit is decreasing, and policies are supporting consumption. The extension of the tariff truce and Fed rate - cut expectations are affecting domestic risk appetite [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as rare earths, precious metals, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market is rising. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and investors should focus on China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals rose slightly. Trade tensions and weak US economic data, such as poor non - farm payrolls and rising initial jobless claims, have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September to over 90%. The inflation rebound has made the stagflation feature of the US economy more obvious. Precious metals are expected to remain in a slightly strong oscillating pattern in the short term [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Thursday, the domestic steel spot market declined slightly, and demand continued to weaken. Steel inventory increased, and apparent consumption decreased. Supply was high due to high steel mill profits. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, iron ore prices weakened. Iron - water production is expected to decline further, and if northern region production restrictions are implemented, ore demand will weaken. Supply has some fluctuations, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Glass - On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly. Supply pressure is high, but there are expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and glass prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8][9]. Ferrous Alloys - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, prices continued to weaken. Demand from the steel industry is okay. Production in some regions is expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the soda - ash futures contract oscillated weakly. Supply is in an oversupply situation, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: German industrial output declined, and new US tariffs have increased global economic pressure. Copper inventory is at a high level, and terminal demand may weaken [10]. - **Aluminum**: Boosted by the expectation of a Fed rate cut, LME aluminum previously led the rise but has now slowed. Fundamentally, domestic and LME inventories are increasing, and short - term upward space is limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Waste - aluminum supply is tight, production costs are rising, and it is in the demand off - season. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply - side开工率 has increased significantly, but demand is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. Inventories are increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, the lithium - carbonate futures contract rose significantly. Market concerns about production suspension have increased price volatility, and cautious observation is recommended [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the industrial - silicon futures contract rose. The increase in coking - coal prices may drive the price, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract declined. The photovoltaic industry has anti - involution expectations, and the spot price provides support. With increasing warehouse receipts, prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is waiting for a potential meeting between the US and Russian presidents, and oil prices are falling. Oil prices will continue to oscillate widely, and an oversupply situation may occur at the end of the year [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is testing the key resistance level. Port inventory is slightly decreasing, but supply pressure will increase in the future, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Crude - oil price decline has weakened cost support. Inventory is neutral, and demand is weak. It will continue to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PX**: Due to plant shutdowns, demand has decreased slightly. The supply - demand pattern is still tight, and it will oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA plants and terminal orders [16]. - **PTA**: Processing fees are low, leading to new plant shutdowns. Spot trading is weak, and downstream demand is slowly recovering. The upside space is limited [16]. - **Short - fiber**: Affected by the decline in crude - oil prices and sector resonance, short - fiber prices are falling. Inventory is accumulating, and it may continue to be weak in the medium term [17]. - **Methanol**: The anti - involution sentiment has cooled, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to supply - demand pressure [17]. - **PP**: The anti - involution sentiment has cooled, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose. US soybean export sales in the week ending July 31 were higher than expected [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic soybean - meal spot prices are expected to oscillate around 2900 yuan/ton. Rapeseed - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean - oil spot trading has improved, and there are opportunities for long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage. Rapeseed - oil fundamentals are stable [20][21]. - **Fats and Oils**: CBOT soybean - oil futures fell, and BMD palm - oil futures rose. Malaysia's palm - oil production and inventory increased in July, and exports were weak. The domestic short - term soybean - palm oil spread may rebound [21]. - **Corn**: Corn futures are falling, and spot prices are weak. Supply is expected to be sufficient in August, and high basis provides some support [21]. - **Pigs**: Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and slaughterhouse orders are expected to increase after the Beginning of Autumn. Pig prices may stabilize [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, China's import and export exceeded expectations, with export growth mainly due to increased exports to Europe and South Korea, and import growth mainly driven by price increases of commodities such as integrated circuits and agricultural products. The trade surplus was lower than expected due to a significant increase in imports. In the future, exports are expected to be supported by improved Sino - US trade and short - term US rush to import, while import growth is expected to remain low [1][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Import and Export Totals - In July 2025, the total import and export volume (in US dollars) was 545.323 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, up 2.0 percentage points from the previous value. The top trading partners in terms of trade volume were ASEAN (trade volume of 86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%, trade share of 15.78%), the EU (74.5 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.42%, trade share of 13.67%), the US (47.9 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, trade share of 8.79%), South Korea (28.1 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.28%, trade share of 5.14%), and Japan (27.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 9.95%, trade share of 5.02%) [1][3]. 3.2 Exports - In July 2025, exports were 321.784 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, better than the expected 5.4% and up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value. The top export destinations were ASEAN (export volume of 54.6 billion, a year - on - year increase of 16.59%, export share of 16.98%), the EU (50 billion, a year - on - year increase of 9.24%, export share of 15.54%), the US (35.8 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 21.67%, with the decline widening by 5.54 percentage points, export share of 11.13%), Japan (12.5 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%, export share of 3.88%), and South Korea (12.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.63%, export share of 3.84%). The top export products were mechanical and electrical products (accounting for 60.2%, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%), of which high - tech products accounted for 24.3%, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The top five mechanical and electrical products were electronic components (14.23%), automobile and auto parts (10.37%), electrical equipment (9.67%), automatic data processing equipment and parts (8.69%), and household appliances (4.29%) [3][4]. 3.3 Imports - In July 2025, imports were 223.539 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, better than the expected - 1% and up 3 percentage points from the previous value. The top import sources were ASEAN (import volume of 31.4 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.76%, import share of 14.05%), the EU (24.5 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.58%, import share of 11.07%), Chinese Taipei (19.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.45%, import share of 8.67%), South Korea (15.7 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.51%, import share of 7.02%), and Japan (14.9 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.13%, import share of 6.68%). The top import products were mechanical and electrical products (accounting for 40.68%, a year - on - year increase of 2.74%), of which electronic components such as integrated circuits accounted for 41.02% with a year - on - year increase of 13%. Other major import products included crude oil (10.68%), metal ores and concentrates (10.15%), and agricultural products (8.36%). In agricultural product imports, soybeans accounted for 27.44%, meat 10.99%, and dried and fresh fruits and nuts 9.33% [4]. 3.4 Trade Balance - In July 2025, the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.93%, lower than the expected 105 billion. The largest trade surplus was in automobiles (8.3 billion, an increase of 0.826 billion), followed by auto parts (6.3 billion, a decrease of 0.036 billion). The largest trade deficits were in crude oil (23.8 billion, a decrease of 0.34 billion), integrated circuits (19.4 billion, an increase of 2.049 billion), and agricultural products (10.293 billion, a decrease of 0.112 billion) [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: US President warns of tariff hikes on India and the EU; US non - manufacturing PMI drops from 50.8 in June to 50.1 in July, below the expected 51.5, weakening the US dollar index and cooling global risk appetite. Domestic: China's manufacturing PMI in July is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Policies like childcare subsidies may boost consumption, and a 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce reduces short - term tariff uncertainties. Domestic risk appetite rises due to Fed rate - cut expectations and RMB appreciation [2]. - Asset recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at short - term highs, with cautious short - term long positions. Bonds may oscillate and correct at short - term highs, suggesting cautious observation. For commodities, black metals may see increased short - term volatility, with cautious short - term long positions; non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term, suggesting cautious observation; energy and chemicals may oscillate, with cautious observation; precious metals may oscillate at short - term highs, with cautious long positions [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas: US non - manufacturing PMI decline and tariff hike warnings cool global risk appetite. Domestic: China's manufacturing PMI decline shows economic slowdown, but policies and tariff truce extension increase domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks may oscillate strongly at short - term highs, bonds may oscillate and correct, black metals may have increased volatility, non - ferrous metals may oscillate, energy and chemicals may oscillate, and precious metals may oscillate at short - term highs [2]. Stocks - Driven by sectors like communication, banking, insurance, and home appliances, the domestic stock market rises. China's July manufacturing PMI decline indicates economic slowdown, but policies and tariff truce extension increase risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive strengthens. Focus on Sino - US trade talks and domestic policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Tuesday sees a divergence in precious metals. The sharp drop in US non - farm payrolls data increases the Fed's rate - cut probability, and the rebound of core PCE inflation in June makes the stagflation feature of the US economy more obvious. The US dollar index weakens, and the stock market falls. Precious metals are expected to remain strong in the short term, with attention to inflation and employment data [4]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Tuesday sees a rebound in the steel spot and futures markets, driven by coal safety supervision. Real - world demand is weak, with an increase in steel inventory and a decrease in apparent consumption. Supply may be restricted by phased production cuts. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Iron ore**: Tuesday sees a slight rebound in iron ore prices, driven by the overall rebound of the ferrous sector. Iron - water production is at a high level but has declined for two consecutive weeks and may continue to fall. Supply shows a decrease in global shipments but an increase in arrivals. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Glass**: Tuesday sees the glass futures contract oscillating. Supply shows a slight increase in daily melting volume and capacity utilization, but there are expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Demand from the real - estate sector is weak, but there is a slight improvement. Glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: Tuesday sees a rebound in the prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese, driven by the expected contraction of coal supply. The prices of manganese ore are loosening, and the cost support is strong. The production of silicon iron is increasing, and the market sentiment is positive. Iron alloy prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Soda ash**: Tuesday sees the soda ash futures contract oscillating. Supply is in an over - supply pattern despite a recent decline in production. Demand is weak, and there are concerns about capacity exit, which support the bottom price. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's rate - cut expectations are rising. Although the EU and the US are close to a trade agreement, Comex copper inventories are at a multi - year high, which may affect future imports. Copper prices have fallen [9]. - **Aluminum**: Tuesday sees an increase in aluminum prices due to a positive commodity market. However, the fundamentals are weakening, with an increase in domestic and LME inventories. The impact of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policy is limited. Short - term sentiment may fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing production costs and leading to losses for some recycling plants. Demand is weak in the off - season. Aluminum alloy prices may oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of tin mines in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased significantly. The supply of tin ore is expected to ease, but demand is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Tuesday sees a 2.39% decline in the lithium carbonate futures contract. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are falling. Market concerns about mine closures may cause short - term volatility. Cautious observation is recommended [9]. - **Industrial silicon**: Tuesday sees a 1.37% increase in the industrial silicon futures contract. Production is increasing slightly. The rise of coking coal prices may drive industrial silicon prices. Industrial silicon prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Polysilicon**: Tuesday sees a 3.88% increase in the polysilicon futures contract. The prices of related products are stable. The increase in warehouse receipts reflects the willingness of enterprises for hedging and delivery. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: Russia may consider a cease - fire to avoid secondary sanctions. Trump's threat to blacklist Russia's "shadow fleet" and tariff hikes on India increase oil price volatility. Oil prices are expected to oscillate widely [12]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices are weakening due to the dissipation of anti - involution sentiment. Factory inventories are slightly decreasing, but demand is weak. Asphalt prices will continue to oscillate weakly [12]. - **PX**: PTA plant overhauls reduce PX demand. The supply - demand pattern is still tight, but the PXN spread has declined. PX prices will oscillate [12]. - **PTA**: PTA prices fall to around 4600. Processing fees are low, and large - scale plant overhauls offset new production capacity. Downstream demand is weak, and PTA prices will oscillate weakly [13]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Port inventories are slightly decreasing, but supply pressure will increase as gas - based plants return. Downstream demand is weak, and ethylene glycol prices will oscillate [14]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by the weakening of the sector, short - fiber prices fall. Terminal orders are average, and inventories are accumulating. Short - fiber prices may continue to be shorted in the medium term [14]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment cools, and industrial products correct. Although coal prices support methanol, supply - demand pressure exists. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment cools, and prices return to fundamentals. Crude oil prices support PP, but supply is strong and demand is weak. PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **LLDPE**: The emotional premium fades. Supply increases as plants restart, and demand is weak. Low inventories and high crude oil prices support LLDPE. LLDPE prices are expected to oscillate weakly [15]. Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The overnight CBOT November soybean contract closes down 0.40%. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 69%, and attention should be paid to the extreme high - temperature risk in the Midwest later this week [16]. - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: High arrivals and high operation rates of domestic oil mills slow down the inventory - building of soybean meal. Trade basis quotes decline, but actual sales are average [16]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: The fast pace of soybean purchases for the fourth quarter in China increases the low - valuation buying of soybean meal and soybean oil. The inverted soybean - palm oil spread makes soybean oil more cost - effective. Consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on soybean oil and short on palm oil. Rapeseed oil has high port inventories and slow circulation [17]. - **Palm oil**: Since July, palm oil production and inventory pressure in the producing areas are high, and exports are weak. The market expects an increase in inventory in the August MPOB report. Palm oil's recent rebound is driven by funds and technology, but its sustainability is questionable [18]. - **Corn**: Corn prices in the national market fall, and spot trading is light. The supply - demand balance of corn in August is weak. Attention should be paid to the new - season corn market [18]. - **Pigs**: Farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices increases the difficulty of procurement for slaughterhouses. However, the off - season demand is weak, and there may be pressure on pig prices due to increased supply [18].

Report industry investment rating No relevant content provided. Core view of the report - Overseas, the EU has suspended trade countermeasures against the US for 6 months, and Fed officials indicate that the timing of interest rate cuts is approaching, with a preference for more than two rate cuts this year. Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month, and the economy slowed in July. China has introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and the US - China tariff truce has been extended by 90 days. Global risk appetite has increased, and domestic risk preference has also risen [3]. - The short - term logic of the precious metals market has changed significantly. Gold is short - term bullish, while silver's rise is expected to lag behind gold, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to continue to rise [5]. - The short - term prices of black metals are affected by production restriction news. Steel, iron ore, and other products are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the prices of ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals and new energy products show different trends. Copper is affected by economic data and inventory; aluminum is affected by inventory and policies; aluminum alloy is supported by cost but limited by demand; tin is expected to decline weakly in the short term; the short - term fluctuations of lithium carbonate are large; industrial silicon may be affected by the anti - involution meeting; polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9][10][12][13]. - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine and OPEC+ production increase plans. Crude oil prices are oscillating, and asphalt, PX, PTA, and other products are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [14][15]. - The prices of agricultural products show different trends. The prices of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand; palm oil prices may continue to weaken; corn supply and demand are in a weak balance; and pig prices are under pressure [17][18]. Summary by relevant catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The EU suspends trade countermeasures against the US for 6 months, Fed officials are dovish, and the US dollar is weak. Domestically: China's July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month. A national child - rearing subsidy system is introduced, and the US - China tariff truce is extended by 90 days. Stock indices are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level. Commodity sectors such as black, non - ferrous, energy and chemical, and precious metals have different short - term trends [3]. Stock indices - Driven by sectors such as military, precious metals, and humanoid robots, the domestic stock market has risen. China's July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month. A national child - rearing subsidy system is introduced, and the US - China tariff truce is extended by 90 days. The short - term macro - upward driving force has increased. Short - term cautious waiting and watching are recommended [4]. Precious metals - On Monday, precious metals continued to rise. The sharp drop in non - farm payrolls data on Friday increased the probability of Fed rate cuts. The inflation rebound in June made the stagflation characteristics of the US economy more obvious. Gold is short - term bullish, while silver's rise is expected to lag behind gold, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to continue to rise [5]. Black metals - **Steel**: On Monday, the domestic steel spot and futures markets were weak, and production restriction news boosted the afternoon futures price. Real - world demand is weak, inventory has increased, and supply is affected by production restrictions. The steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Iron ore**: On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. Iron ore production may continue to decline, and supply and demand are in a state of balance. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Soda ash**: On Monday, the main soda ash contract oscillated. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the main glass contract oscillated. Supply pressure is high, and there is an expectation of production reduction. Demand has slightly improved. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7][8]. Non - ferrous metals and new energy - **Copper**: Non - farm payrolls data is not as expected, and the US economy is in a slowdown trend. Comex copper inventories are at a high level in recent years, and the price is affected by economic data and inventory [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Monday, the aluminum price rose slightly. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the impact of policies is limited. Short - term sentiment may fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The supply - side start - up rate has increased significantly, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline weakly in the short term [10]. - **Lithium carbonate**: On Monday, the main lithium carbonate contract declined. The market is concerned about the risk of mine shutdown, and short - term fluctuations are large [12]. - **Industrial silicon**: On Monday, the main industrial silicon contract declined. The social inventory is at a high level. The price may be affected by the anti - involution meeting [12]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the main polysilicon contract declined. The inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [13]. Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil**: The market is evaluating OPEC+ production increase news, and the US threat to India has partially alleviated concerns about oversupply. The price is oscillating narrowly, waiting for risks to be determined [14]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices are weakening due to the dissipation of anti - involution sentiment. The inventory is in a neutral state with limited de - stocking, and it will maintain a weak oscillating pattern [14]. - **PX**: PTA processing fees are low, and PX demand has slightly decreased. The supply - demand pattern is still tight in the short term, and the price will oscillate, waiting for changes in PTA devices [14][15]. - **PTA**: PTA prices have fallen to the support level, processing fees are low, and downstream开工 has decreased. The price will continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Port inventories have slightly decreased, but supply pressure will gradually increase. The de - stocking drive will weaken, and it will oscillate in the near term [15]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber has decreased due to the overall decline of the sector. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has slightly increased. It can be shorted on rallies in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [16]. - **LLDPE**: The emotional premium has decreased. Supply has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Agricultural products - **US soybeans**: The优良率 of US soybeans is 69%, and attention should be paid to the risk of extreme high temperatures in the central and western US later in the week [17]. - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: Domestic soybean arrivals and oil mill operations are high. Soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down, but the spot sentiment is weak. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans from August to September is high [17][18]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: Soybean oil is supported in the short term, and rapeseed oil has a weak market. The inventory of soybean oil has increased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has slightly increased [18]. - **Palm oil**: Since July, Malaysian palm oil production has increased, and exports have weakened. Domestic imports have increased, and the price may continue to weaken, and the soybean - palm oil price difference may continue to rise [18]. - **Corn**: Corn trading is not active, supply is tight, and demand is weak. The supply - demand is in a weak balance in August [18]. - **Pigs**: Pig prices are weak, and there is a possibility of further pressure on prices in the short term [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Globally, the US non - farm payroll data was significantly revised downward, leading to a sharp decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, the economic growth slowed in July, and although policies such as the national parenting subsidy system were introduced and the tariff truce period was extended, the domestic risk appetite also decreased due to under - expected economic growth and overseas negative impacts [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends. Stocks and bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct in the short term; most commodities are in a state of short - term shock, with different degrees of caution required for operation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Overseas**: The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous two months were revised down by 258,000 jobs. Traders fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, and the US imposed new tariffs on dozens of trading partners, causing a sharp decline in global risk appetite [3]. - **Domestic**: China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The country introduced a national parenting subsidy system, and the China - US tariff truce period was extended by 90 days. However, due to under - expected economic growth and overseas negative impacts, domestic risk appetite decreased [3][4]. - **Asset Performance**: Stocks are expected to fluctuate and correct in the short term, with cautious long - positions. Bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct at high levels, with cautious observation. Among commodities, black metals have increased short - term volatility, non - ferrous metals are in short - term shock, energy and chemicals are in short - term shock, and precious metals are in short - term high - level shock, with cautious long - positions [3]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as military industry, insurance, and metals. The economic growth slowed in July, and although policies were introduced and the tariff truce period was extended, the domestic risk appetite decreased. The short - term macro - upward driving force weakened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. Precious Metals - On Friday, precious metals had an unexpected reversal, with the core driver shifting to the resonance of "safe - haven + rate - cut expectations". The non - farm data was extremely poor, the Fed rate - cut probability increased significantly, and the US economy showed stagflation characteristics. Gold rebounded significantly, and silver's rise was expected to lag behind gold, with the gold - silver ratio likely to continue rising [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak, with low trading volumes. The reality demand continued to weaken, the inventory of five major steel products increased, and the apparent consumption decreased. The supply remained high, but there was a high probability of negative feedback in the industrial chain. The steel market is recommended to be treated with a weak - shock mindset [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. The daily molten iron output declined, and the supply and demand were in a state of shock. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly, but the futures prices were weak. The demand for ferroalloys was weak, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash was weak last week. The supply was in an oversupply pattern, the downstream demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [9]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass was weak last week. The supply pressure was large, the demand was slightly improved, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [11]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations were constructive, and the probability of extending the tariff truce was high. The Fed's stance was complex, and the Comex copper inventory was at a high level, which over - drafted the later import demand [12]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fluctuated. The domestic social inventory and LME inventory increased, and the short - term sentiment might be volatile [12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, the cost increased, and the demand was in the off - season. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside space was limited [13]. - **Tin**: The supply - side production increased, the demand was weak, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production increased, the price of imported lithium ore decreased, the demand increased, the inventory increased slightly, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate weakly [14][15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production increased slightly, the social inventory was high, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly. If the anti - involution meeting's consensus exceeded expectations, the price might rise [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The production increased, the futures price declined, the现货 price rose slightly, the inventory decreased slightly, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [16]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The non - farm data and OPEC+ production increase led to a slight decline in oil prices, and the oil price continued to be in a weak - shock pattern [17]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price weakened, the factory inventory decreased slightly, and the price continued to be in a weak - shock pattern [17]. - **PX**: The PTA processing fee was low, and the PX price was expected to fluctuate and wait for the change of PTA devices [17]. - **PTA**: The spot trading volume was low, the downstream demand was weak, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory decreased slightly, the supply pressure would increase in August, and the price was expected to fluctuate [18][19]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price declined due to the weakening of the sector, the terminal orders were average, and the inventory increased slightly. It could be shorted on rallies in the medium term [19]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the supply and demand were under pressure, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [19]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the supply was strong, the demand was in the off - season, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [19]. - **LLDPE**: The supply increased, the demand was weak, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The US weather was favorable for soybean growth, but the new - crop sales were cold. The export might be adjusted downward, and the price was expected to be under pressure. In the short term, the weak US dollar provided support [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories continued to increase, and the soybean meal price was relatively strong compared to the US soybean futures [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The possibility of opening the US agricultural product import window in the short term was low. Soybean oil was supported, and rapeseed oil was in a weak - range market [21]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil production in Malaysia increased, the export decreased, and the inventory was expected to increase. The price was expected to be weak, and the soybean - palm oil price difference might continue to rise [22][23]. - **Corn**: The corn trading was inactive, the supply was tight, and the demand was weak. The overall supply - demand was in a weak balance in August [23]. - **Pigs**: The pig price was weak, the short - term supply pressure increased, and there was a possibility of further pressure on the price [23].

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In July, due to entering the traditional production off - season and factors like high - temperature, rainstorm and flood disasters in some areas, the business activities of enterprises slowed down. The three major PMIs declined but remained above the critical point, and the overall economic output in China continued to expand. However, demand was weak in the short - term, and production and price trends were complex. The export's role in driving the economy was expected to weaken in the second half of the year [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Economic Situation - China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3% (expected 49.7%, previous value 49.7%); non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1% (expected 50.2%, previous value 50.5%); comprehensive PMI was 50.2% (previous value 50.7%). The three major indexes all declined, indicating a slowdown in economic prosperity, but the overall economic output remained in the expansion range [1]. 3.2 Investment - Real estate investment remained weak. Although sales and capital sources improved, investment - side policies were restricted. Infrastructure investment slowed down due to factors like high - temperature and flood disasters affecting construction progress, despite accelerated special bond issuance. Manufacturing investment slowed down but continued to grow at a high speed, and short - term restocking motivation of manufacturing enterprises declined [2]. 3.3 Consumption - The growth rate of consumption slowed down, but its driving effect on the economy remained strong [2]. 3.4 Export - Exports maintained resilience due to the mitigation of external shocks, but as the US restocking demand weakened in the future, export growth might slow down, and its driving effect on the economy was expected to weaken in the second half of the year [2]. 3.5 Manufacturing - The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. New order index and production index both declined, indicating a slowdown in market demand and a continued but decelerated expansion in production. New export order index declined, showing a slowdown in external demand, while import demand rebounded. Price indexes rebounded, and both finished - product and raw - material inventory indexes declined [3][4]. 3.6 Non - manufacturing - The non - manufacturing business activity index in July was 50.1%, still above the critical point. The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down. Some service - related industries were in a high - level prosperity range, while real estate and other industries had weak prosperity. The construction industry business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points. Most service enterprises were optimistic about the market, while the construction industry's market expectation declined [5]. 3.7 Comprehensive - The comprehensive PMI output index in July was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that overall business activities of enterprises in China continued to expand but at a slower pace [6].