商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资咨询证号：Z0022217 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：lizy@qh168.com.cn 彭亚勇 从业资格证号：F03 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资咨询证号：Z0022217 电话：021-687578 ...

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投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年6月25日 研究所晨会观点精萃 分析师 贾利军 宏观金融：美元指数走弱，全球风险偏好升温 【宏观】 海外方面，美联储主席鲍威尔重申降息可以等待，并不急于降息；以及 受助于以色列和伊朗停火，全球避险情绪降温；短期美元指数走弱，全球风险偏 好整体升温。国内方面，中国 5 月消费增长强劲，但投资和工业生产有所放缓， 经济增长整体稳健，短期有助于提振国内风险偏好;而且,短期中东地缘政治紧 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 张局势缓和以及美联储官员偏鸽的政策表态支撑国内风险偏好。资产上：股指短 期震荡反弹，短期谨慎做多。国债短期高位震荡，谨慎观望。商品板块来看，黑 色短期低位震荡，短期谨慎观望；有色短期震荡偏强，短期谨慎做多；能化短期 波动加剧，谨慎观望；贵金属短期高位震荡，谨慎观望。 【股指】 在电池、人形机器人以及汽车等板块的带动下，国内股市继续上涨。 基本面上,中国 5 月消费增长强劲,但投资和工业生产有所放缓,经济增长 整体稳健,短期有助于提振国内风险偏好;而且，短期中东地缘政治紧张局势 缓和以及美联储官员偏鸽的政策表态支撑国内风险偏好。 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has declined, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. In China, economic growth is generally stable, with strong consumption growth in May but a slowdown in investment and industrial production, which also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. Group 2: Asset Recommendations - Stock indices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short - term, with a recommendation of cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds are expected to remain at a high level and oscillate, with a suggestion of cautious observation. For commodities, black metals are in short - term low - level oscillation (cautious observation), non - ferrous metals are oscillating strongly (cautious short - term long positions), energy and chemicals are experiencing increased volatility (cautious observation), and precious metals are at a high - level oscillation (cautious observation) [2]. Group 3: Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as digital currency, energy metals, and port shipping, the domestic stock market has risen. The short - term market trading logic focuses on Middle East geopolitical risks, changes in US trade policies, and trade negotiation progress. With the decline in short - term Middle East geopolitical risks, the impact on the market has weakened. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Precious Metals - On Monday, the precious metals market oscillated upward. Geopolitical conflicts and the Fed's hawkish stance have an impact on precious metals. The market is currently focused on the Middle East situation, and the attitude of Iran should be closely monitored [3]. Group 5: Black Metals Steel - With demand at a low level, the spot and futures prices of steel continue to oscillate. The real - world demand for steel still has resilience, but the market's outlook is pessimistic. Supply is expected to remain high in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore slightly declined, while the futures price rebounded. Short - term demand is okay, but the supply is expected to remain high in the second quarter. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron remained flat on Monday. Short - term demand is okay, but downstream procurement is weak. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and short - term rebound opportunities can be considered if energy prices continue to strengthen [6]. Group 6: Chemicals Soda Ash - On Monday, soda ash oscillated. Supply remains abundant, demand has contracted, and inventory has increased. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate within a range [7]. Glass - On Monday, glass was weakly oscillating. Supply is mainly for rigid demand, and demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. Group 7: Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US Federal Reserve's June interest - rate meeting was more hawkish. The production of copper is at a high level, and demand may decline marginally. The price is expected to oscillate, and the negotiation results between the US and other countries and the US's copper tariff policy should be monitored [8]. Aluminum - Central funds of 138 billion yuan will be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. Aluminum prices are rising, mainly driven by the external market. Downstream demand may weaken, and the inventory situation should be monitored [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It has entered the off - season for demand, but the tight supply of scrap aluminum provides some support for the price. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weakening demand [10]. Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Iran's attack on a US airbase did not target energy infrastructure, and the probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices [11]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices will follow the decline in oil prices. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the inventory is being depleted. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [11]. PX - The cost support for PX is strong in the short - term, but the decline in oil prices brings uncertainties. PX prices may face a callback risk and will continue to oscillate strongly following crude oil [11]. PTA - The basis of PTA remains at a high level. The upstream - downstream contradiction is significant, and the inventory is accumulating. The decline in oil prices will severely impact the futures price [12][13]. Ethylene Glycol - The probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, and the impact on device shutdowns has weakened. The inventory depletion has slowed down, and the price may experience a larger callback following the decline in oil prices [13]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices will drive down short - fiber prices. It will continue to oscillate strongly following the polyester sector, but the terminal orders are average [13]. Methanol - Methanol prices have squeezed downstream profits, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term due to the possible end of geopolitical conflicts [13]. PP - The production of PP is increasing, and downstream开工 has slightly declined. The price is expected to fall with the decline in oil prices [13]. LLDPE - The device production has not increased significantly, and downstream demand has not changed much. The futures price is expected to continue to weaken, with increased short - term volatility [13]. Group 9: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined. Favorable weather in the US Midwest is expected to benefit crop growth [14]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in Chinese oil mills has increased. The supply - demand of soybean meal is gradually becoming more balanced, and the rapeseed meal market is dominated by the soybean meal market [15]. Oils and Fats - The decline in geopolitical risks in the Middle East has led to a decline in the premium of international oils and fats. The inventory of palm oil and soybean oil in China has increased [15][16]. Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast has risen, but the supply from the Northeast to North China has increased, and the price in North China has decreased. The start of wheat procurement and the possible increase in old - corn sales may lead to a high - level consolidation of corn prices [16]. Hogs - The weight - reduction efforts of pig - raising groups are limited. The spot price in the benchmark area is stable, and the futures price is expected to be repaired. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with possible stronger fluctuations [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intensification of the Middle - East tension has led to a decline in global risk appetite. In China, economic growth in May was generally stable, but short - term risk preferences were affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish statement. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the Iranian parliament approved closing the Strait of Hormuz. Global risk aversion increased, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite declined. Domestic: China's May consumption grew strongly, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, but the short - term risk preferences were affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish statement. For assets, the stock index will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the national debt will fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, the black metals will fluctuate at a low level, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals will fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy and chemicals will have increased volatility, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals will fluctuate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [3]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as oil and gas development, short - drama games, and precious metals. The fundamentals showed that China's May consumption grew strongly, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The short - term risk preferences were affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish statement. The market focused on the Middle - East risk, US trade policies, and trade negotiations. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - Last week, the precious metals market had a high - level oscillating correction. The Fed's June meeting maintained the interest rate and made hawkish remarks. The Israel - Iran conflict escalated, and the US military directly attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it may impact the global capital market [4]. Black Metals Steel - Last Friday, the domestic steel futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and the trading volume remained low. The "national subsidy" for home appliances continued. The Fed's hawkish signal and the rebound of the US dollar index suppressed commodity prices. The demand had some resilience, the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 16.08 tons week - on - week, and the inventory continued to decline. The supply increased by 9.68 tons week - on - week, mainly contributed by building materials. The steel market will mainly oscillate at the bottom in the short term [5][6]. Iron Ore - Last Friday, the iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. The daily output of molten iron increased slightly, and the steel mills' profits were still good. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 157 tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased by 224 tons week - on - week. The port inventory decreased by 101 tons. The short - term fundamentals were strong, but the rebound of coking coal prices had a certain inhibitory effect. The iron ore price will mainly oscillate in a range in the short term [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Last Friday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat. The demand for ferroalloys was okay in the short term. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron in different regions were stable. The supply of silicon manganese in the south was low, and the cost was inverted. The supply of silicon iron might increase. The market will mainly oscillate in a range in the short term, and if energy prices continue to strengthen, short - term rebound opportunities can be concerned [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The Fed's June meeting was more hawkish. The central government will allocate 138 billion yuan in the third and fourth quarters. The copper production is at a high level, the demand has a marginal weakening risk, and the inventory growth has slowed down. The high price difference between COMEX and LME has stimulated copper to flow into the US, overdrawing future import demand. It is necessary to wait for the right time to short, and pay attention to the negotiation results and tariff policies [8]. Aluminum - 138 billion yuan of central funds will be allocated in the third and fourth quarters. The aluminum price increased mainly due to the external market. The downstream demand has a weakening risk, the inventory reduction of aluminum ingots has slowed down, and the inventory of aluminum rods has increased. The "trade - in" policy has some uncertainties [8]. Aluminum Alloy - It has entered the off - season of demand, and the manufacturing orders have grown weakly. However, the tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the price. The price will oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9][10]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, the processing fee is low, and the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 46.84%. The demand is in the off - season, and the orders have decreased. The price will oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is under pressure [10]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. If Iran retaliates, the geopolitical situation will be at high risk, and the oil price will rise. The short - term fundamentals have limited influence, and the seasonal inventory reduction supports the price. It is advisable to wait and see the geopolitical development [11]. Asphalt - The oil price oscillates at a high level, and the asphalt price has a slight upward breakthrough. The shipment has improved, the factory inventory is decreasing, but the spot price lags behind. It will follow the oil price to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [11]. PX - The upstream cost has increased due to the geopolitical risk, and the demand has increased due to the slight increase in PTA's operation rate. The tight supply situation will continue, and it will follow the oil price to oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The oil price drives up the absolute price, and the port inventory is low. The downstream will cut production, and the 6 - month contract will release some pressure. It will follow the oil price to rise [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The impact of Iranian facilities is expected in August, and the domestic and foreign facilities' operation rates may recover. The inventory reduction has slowed down, and the follow - up increase may be limited [12]. Short - fiber - The oil price increase drives up the polyester price, and the short - fiber will follow the polyester sector to oscillate strongly. The terminal orders are average, the inventory is high, and it will follow the polyester price to rise [12]. Methanol - The supply may decrease significantly, and the upward driving force is strong. But the continuous price increase squeezes the downstream profit, and there is a risk of MTO/MTP shutdown [12]. PP - The production is increasing, the downstream operation rate has decreased slightly, and the oil price increase drives up the PP price. It is necessary to pay attention to the Israel - Iran conflict [13]. LLDPE - The device production has not increased significantly, the downstream demand has little change, and the oil - based cost support is strengthening. The market sentiment has improved, and the price will continue to strengthen with increased short - term fluctuations [13]. Urea - The supply is high, the agricultural demand has not increased significantly, and the compound fertilizer operation rate has decreased. Although the port collection demand is planned to increase, the fundamentals are weak. But the geopolitical conflict drives up the price, and the downward space is limited [13]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The rainfall in the production area has alleviated the drought. The EPA's RVO policy for 2026 - 2027 is expected to increase the demand for soybean oil. The 2025/26 US soybeans are expected to have low inventory, and the fund's net long - position holdings are increasing [14]. Corn - The arrival volume of Shandong's deep - processing enterprises is low, and the purchase price supports the Northeast corn. The wheat substitution and the release of old corn may lead to a high - level consolidation of corn in the short term [15]. Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - The oil mills' high - operation rate makes the soybean meal supply and demand loose, and the domestic basis is expected to be stable. The rapeseed meal market is dominated by the soybean meal market. It is necessary to pay attention to the China - Canada trade policy [16]. Oils and Fats - The international oils and fats have a market premium due to the energy - related risk. The short - term long - market situation will continue, but the external market changes have a direct impact, and the risk is high. It is advisable to participate cautiously [16]. Live Pigs - The group's weight - reduction efforts are small, the benchmark - area spot market is stable, and the slaughter volume has decreased in the off - season. The pig price in the benchmark area is stable, and the futures price is expected to be repaired. The range - bound market will be stable but may have stronger fluctuations [17].

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 李卓雅 【贵金属】黄金市场周四小幅回撤，沪金主力合约跌至 784 元/克一线，白银波动 加剧回落至 8814 一线。美联储维持鹰派表达，上调失业率预测同时降低经济预 期，鲍威尔多次强调对于通胀的担忧。 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 宏观金融：美联储维持利率不变，全球风险偏好整体降温 明道雨 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F0314451 ...