Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US economic data is strong, and Powell maintains a wait - and - see stance, causing the US dollar index to rise continuously and the global risk appetite to heat up. In China, the economy grew higher than expected in H1 2025, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. China has introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and a new round of Sino - US trade talks has extended the tariff truce period by 90 days, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - For assets, the stock index will run with a short - term upward bias, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds will experience a short - term high - level shock and correction, and cautious observation is advised; in the commodity sector, black products will have greater short - term fluctuations, with short - term cautious long positions; non - ferrous metals will have a short - term shock and correction, with short - term cautious observation; energy and chemicals will have a short - term shock and rebound, with cautious long positions; precious metals will have a short - term high - level shock, with cautious observation [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the Fed keeps the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, and Powell avoids guiding on a September rate cut. The US Q2 economic growth is 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%, and the July ADP employment increased by 104,000, exceeding the expected 75,000. The strong US economic data and Powell's stance drive the US dollar index up. Domestically, China's H1 economic growth is higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed down. China has introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and Sino - US trade talks extended the tariff truce by 90 days [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as film and television, oil and gas, and food and beverage, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade talks and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market declined on Wednesday. As trade agreements are reached, market risk appetite recovers, and precious metals are under pressure. The Fed maintains the interest rate, and the ADP employment report is strong, weakening the safe - haven property of precious metals. In the short term, precious metals are under pressure, but the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains. Attention should be paid to the key support levels for long - term position allocation [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot steel market rebounded slightly on Wednesday, and the futures price rose and then fell. After major macro - events, the actual demand has not improved significantly. The supply will remain high, but production restrictions may suppress it. The steel market should be treated with a short - term shock - upward bias [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the iron ore futures and spot prices declined. The iron - making production decreased slightly last week, and the demand growth is limited. If production restrictions are implemented in August - September, the iron - making production may decline. The supply increased slightly this week, and the port inventory increased slightly. The iron ore price will fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices diverged. The production enthusiasm in Inner Mongolia is high, and the production in the main producing areas of silicon iron is stable. The short - term price of ferroalloys is expected to be strong [7]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda ash contract was weak. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the demand is weak. Market concerns about capacity exit support the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed. After a disappointing meeting, the price corrected [8]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was weak. The supply pressure increases during the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate industry is weak, and the demand is poor. The profit increased slightly. The short - term price is supported by policies, but it corrected after a disappointing meeting [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US plans to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements, which is sentimentally positive for copper prices. The copper concentrate spot TC has rebounded slightly, and Comex copper inventories are at a multi - year high [10]. - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the aluminum price fell slightly. Fundamentally, it is weak, with domestic and LME inventories increasing. The impact of relevant policies is limited, and the price increase is expected to be limited. Wait for the sentiment to cool down [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts. It is the off - season, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be strong but with limited upside [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is recovering, and the mine supply is expected to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. The short - term price will fluctuate, and the medium - term upside is limited [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main lithium carbonate contract fell. The prices of lithium ore and lithium carbonate products decreased. Due to policy uncertainties, short - term observation is recommended, and wait for the price to stabilize [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main industrial silicon contract rose. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 is 9800 yuan/ton. The price fluctuated greatly, and short - term observation is recommended [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main polysilicon contract rose significantly. The prices of related products were stable. The production in July is expected to increase by about 10% month - on - month. There are many rumors in the market, and direct short - selling is risky [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump threatens to punish India for buying Russian oil, causing concerns about supply tightening. However, the increase in US crude oil inventories limits the price increase. The oil price will remain strong and fluctuate in the short term [15]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price has been stable recently. The support from the crude oil price has increased slightly. The factory inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand is average. The price will follow the crude oil price, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PX**: The tight supply of PX continues, but the external price has decreased. The high profit of PX may cause downstream negative feedback. The short - term price will fluctuate, and the upside is limited [16]. - **PTA**: The trading volume of PTA is weak. The inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the downstream inventory has decreased, but the profit has not increased. The processing fee is low, and the price is supported by the crude oil price. Wait for the August stocking rhythm to change [16][17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price has returned to a short - term range. The port inventory has decreased slightly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. The short - term price will fluctuate within a range [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price decreased due to the weakening of the sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Wait for the August peak - season stocking [17]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price was supported by coal prices but was restricted by factors such as device restart and import increase. It is expected to return to a shock range, and conservative investors should observe [17]. - **PP**: Affected by multiple policies, the PP price is still supported to some extent. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate [18]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene futures price corrected. In the short term, it will be affected by policies. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the price is expected to decline [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT November soybean contract fell. Argentina's soybean exports exceeded expectations, and the pre - sale of new - season US soybeans is slow, putting pressure on the price [19]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is split. The import volume in August - September is expected to be high, and the USDA report in August may be bearish. The cost expectation of soybean meal will weaken [20]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has narrowed. The export of domestic soybean oil is expected to increase, but the domestic demand is weak. The rapeseed inventory is low, supporting the rapeseed oil price [21]. - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the decline of US soybean oil, palm oil may weaken. The domestic palm oil inventory is accumulating, and the Malaysian palm oil production is increasing while the export is decreasing [21]. - **Pigs**: The pig price has fallen to a new low this year. In August, the supply may increase, and the price will be under pressure until late August. The futures price of some contracts is too high, and the basis is low, suitable for industrial selling hedging [22]. - **Corn**: The corn futures technical indicators are bearish, but there is no logical driver. The spot price is stable. There may be an oversold risk in the far - month contracts. The opening price of new - season corn is expected to be slightly optimistic [23].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Morning Meeting View Highlights of the Research Institute on July 30, 2025, covering macro - finance, stocks, precious metals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products [2] Group 2: Macro - Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index continued to rise due to market waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision, better - than - expected economic data, and good results of US trade negotiations. However, the June job - vacancy data was worse than expected, indicating some weakness in the US labor market, and the good performance of US Treasury auctions led to a decline in Treasury yields. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. China introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and a new round of Sino - US trade talks may extend the 90 - day tariff truce, which is beneficial to domestic risk appetite [2] - For assets, stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate and correct in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy chemicals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Group 3: Stocks - Driven by sectors such as biomedicine, steel, and communication equipment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade talks and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3] Group 4: Precious Metals - The precious - metals market continued to fluctuate narrowly. With the continuous conclusion of trade agreements, market risk appetite recovered, and precious metals were under pressure. The Sino - US negotiation results met market expectations. The market expects the Fed to keep the interest - rate range at 4.25 - 4.5% unchanged this week and maintains the expectation of an interest - rate cut in September. Precious metals may fluctuate in the short term, but the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged, and the strategic allocation value of gold is prominent [4] Group 5: Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded significantly, but the trading volume remained low. The market sentiment improved due to anti - involution policies and possible production restrictions in the north. The real demand has not improved significantly, the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons week - on - week, and the supply decreased by 1.22 tons week - on - week. The coke price increase was implemented for the fourth time, and the cost support was strong. The steel market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near future [5][6] Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded significantly. The growth space of iron - ore demand is limited, and if production - restriction policies are implemented from August to September, iron - water production may decline. Steel mills mainly replenish inventory on a rigid - demand basis. The global iron - ore shipping volume increased by 91 tons week - on - week, but the arrival volume decreased by 130.7 tons. The port inventory increased slightly. Iron - ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded. The port manganese - ore quotation increased. The production attitude of Inner Mongolia factories is positive. The national utilization rate of silicon - manganese production capacity increased by 1.05% to 41.58%, and the daily output increased by 520 tons; the national utilization rate of silicon - iron production capacity increased by 0.88% to 33.33%, and the daily output increased by 330 tons. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to be strong in the short term [7] Soda Ash - The main soda - ash contract was strong. The supply decreased week - on - week, but there is still an oversupply situation. The downstream demand is weak, and the profit decreased week - on - week. The anti - involution policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the loose supply - demand pattern. In the short term, the price center is rising due to policy trading, but it is advisable to hold an empty position to avoid risks when the trading logic returns to fundamentals [8] Glass - The main glass contract was strong. The daily melting volume increased slightly, and the supply pressure increased due to the off - season. The terminal real - estate industry is weak, and the demand has not improved. The profit increased week - on - week. The anti - involution policy and relevant guidelines support the short - term price, but it is advisable to hold an empty position to avoid risks when the trading logic returns to fundamentals [8][9] Group 6: Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The US plans to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements. The short - term growth - stabilization plan is beneficial to copper prices. The current spot TC of copper concentrate is - 42.63 dollars/ton, showing a slight recovery. Comex copper inventories continue to accumulate, reaching over 250,000 short tons, the highest level in recent years [10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fell slightly on Tuesday. Fundamentally, the situation is weakening, with domestic social inventories and LME inventories increasing. The impact of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document is limited. The expected increase in aluminum prices is limited, and it is advisable to wait for the sentiment to cool down instead of shorting for the time being [10] Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled - aluminum plants is rising, leading to losses and even production cuts. It is in the off - season, and the manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost support, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited [10] Tin - The combined utilization rate of production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi continued to rise to 55.51%, an increase of 1.03% week - on - week. The supply of tin ore tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory increased by 230 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space will be suppressed in the medium term [11] Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium - carbonate contract 09 fell 5.9% on Tuesday, with the latest settlement price at 70,300 yuan/ton. The weighted contract reduced positions by 79,000 lots, with a total position of 720,000 lots. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate both decreased by 3,000 yuan/ton. The price of Australian lithium ore decreased. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for opportunities after the price stabilizes [12][13] Industrial Silicon - The main industrial - silicon contract 09 rose 2.35% on Tuesday, with the weighted contract increasing positions by 10,000 lots to 530,000 lots. The spot price of East - China oxygen - containing 553 was 9,800 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 450 yuan/ton. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,400 tons. It is advisable to wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [13] Polysilicon - The main polysilicon contract 09 settled at 50,250 yuan/ton on Tuesday, a significant increase of 3.76%. The weighted contract increased positions by 26,000 lots to 360,000 lots. The SMM forecasts that the polysilicon output in July will be about 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 10%. There are many disturbances in the news, and it is risky to short directly [14] Group 7: Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - The US may impose economic sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine, which intensifies the market's concern about supply tightness. The market is closely watching the August 1 tariff deadline and the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. Oil prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate in the near future [15] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract stabilized after a downward resonance. The inventory decreased slightly, the trading volume was low, and the overall demand was average. The basis was stable, and the social inventory continued to accumulate slightly. The market believes that this year's demand is slightly lower than expected, and it is necessary to focus on the inventory - reduction situation in the later stage. The short - term absolute price will follow the crude - oil price, but the upside space is limited [15] PX - The tight supply of PX continued. The external price dropped to $851, and the price difference with naphtha remained at $293. The PTA processing fee dropped to a new low in the past six months, which may lead to production cuts of leading devices. There is a risk of downstream negative feedback. PX prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space is limited [15] PTA - The basis remained at around - 5. The port - inventory accumulation slowed down slightly. After the downstream sales soared last week, the downstream inventory decreased significantly, but the profit did not increase substantially. In the later stage, the downstream may face inventory - accumulation pressure and production cuts. The PTA processing fee is low, and the leading devices are reducing production. There is bottom support, and it is necessary to wait for the change in the August stocking rhythm [16][17] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol port inventory decreased slightly to 521,000 tons, but the price declined due to sector resonance, especially for coal - based ethylene glycol. There is an expectation of the resumption of domestic shutdown and maintenance devices. The downstream start - up rate remains low, and the terminal orders in the off - season have no significant increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the near future [17] Short - Fiber - Crude - oil prices fluctuated moderately, but the short - fiber price declined due to sector resonance. The terminal orders are average, and the start - up rate has bottomed out but has not rebounded significantly. The short - fiber inventory has decreased slightly, and more inventory reduction needs to wait for the peak - season stocking in August. Short - fiber prices are expected to follow the polyester end and may be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [17] Methanol - The MA2509 contract closed at 2434 yuan/ton on July 29, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day. The position decreased by 40,700 lots to 576,000 lots. The Taicang price fluctuated slightly, and the basis was stable. The methanol price in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia decreased slightly. The coal - price increase supports the methanol price, but the upward movement is restricted by device restart, increased imports, and compressed MTO profit. Methanol prices are expected to return to the oscillation range. It is advisable for conservative investors to wait and see before the Politburo meeting [18] PP - The PP market price partially declined, and the mainstream price of East - China drawn wire was 7100 - 7180 yuan/ton. The polyolefin inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 30,000 tons to 780,000 tons on July 29. Affected by multiple policies, there is still some price support, but the supply is loose, the downstream demand is weakened by high prices, and the supply - demand relationship is under pressure. PP prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [19] LLDPE - The polyethylene market price was adjusted, and the standard - product transaction price was 7250 - 7500 yuan/ton. The prices in North, East, and South China decreased by 20, 30, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The futures contract of polyethylene corrected, and the short - term fluctuation may be affected by policies. Before the Politburo meeting, the price is expected to fluctuate and wait for a direction. In the long term, the oversupply pattern has not changed significantly, and the downstream demand weakens during the price increase, and the import profit increases significantly. The fundamentals may deteriorate more than expected. Polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long term [19] Group 8: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1008.25, down 3.25 or 0.32% (settlement price 1009.50). Favorable weather in the US soybean - producing areas puts pressure on soybean prices, while soybean oil provides some support. As of July 27, 2025, the US soybean good - and - excellent rate was 70%, better than the market expectation of 67% [20][21] Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - Sino - US trade talks affect the sentiment of the US soybean market. If the US soybean production increase is stable, it may lead to a short - selling market at the end of the crop - growing season in late August, which will drag down the domestic soybean - meal market. Domestic oil mills have a high and stable start - up rate, and the soybean - meal inventory is gradually accumulating, with a weak basis. The national full - sample oil - mill start - up rate was 64.74% on July 29, up 0.51% from the previous day. It is worth noting that the spot buying at low prices has increased in some areas, and the basis trading volume from May to July next year has increased [21] Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - Palm oil has a large pressure to realize profits at a high level, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has shrunk at a low level, and soybean oil has made up for the increase, but there is no fundamental support. The spot trading of soybean oil is light, the terminal consumption is weak, the oil - mill crushing volume has decreased, but the inventory is still accumulating, and the basis quotations in various regions continue to be at the bottom [21] Palm Oil - The strong international crude - oil price, the weakening ringgit, and the rise of US soybean oil may boost the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude - palm - oil futures. The palm - oil market is bullish without signs of correction, but the upward resistance has increased significantly. With the increase of domestic palm - oil imports, the inventory is accumulating in the off - season. The production of Malaysian palm oil is progressing smoothly, the export has declined month - on - month, and the inventory - accumulation expectation is strong. From July 1 - 25, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.52% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 8.53% month - on - month [22]

Group 1: Report General Information - Analysts include Jialijun, Mingdaoyu, Liuhuifeng, etc., each with corresponding qualification numbers, contact phones, and email addresses [1][2] - The report is the Morning Meeting View Summary of the Research Institute on July 29, 2025 [2] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Financial Situation - Overseas, the US - EU trade agreement and Sino - US trade talks boost market sentiment, weaken risk - aversion demand, and strengthen the US dollar. Domestically, China's H1 economic growth is higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slow down. The introduction of the national childcare subsidy policy may boost consumption [2] - For assets, the stock index is expected to be short - term volatile and slightly stronger, with short - term cautious long positions. Treasury bonds are expected to have a short - term high - level volatile correction, and cautious observation is recommended. In the commodity sector, black metals have large short - term fluctuations, non - ferrous metals have a short - term volatile correction, energy and chemicals are short - term volatile, and precious metals are short - term high - level volatile, all requiring cautious observation [2] Group 3: Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as components, military industry, and film and television theaters, the domestic stock market rises slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive is enhanced, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade talks and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3] Group 4: Precious Metals - Precious metals are under pressure due to the reaching of multiple trade agreements. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, and the market maintains the expectation of a September rate cut. Precious metals are short - term volatile and weak, but the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged, and the strategic allocation value of gold is prominent [3] Group 5: Black Metals Steel - The steel futures and spot markets decline, and the trading volume is low. After the Dalian Commodity Exchange's position - limit measures on coking coal, market sentiment turns pessimistic. The apparent consumption and production of five major steel products decline. Steel supply has limited short - term recovery space, and the market should be treated with a short - term correction mindset [4] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices continue to decline. Iron ore demand has limited room for growth, and ports have sufficient medium - grade powder. The global iron ore shipment volume rebounds, but the arrival volume continues to decline. Iron ore prices are expected to be short - term volatile and weak [5][6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Silicon iron and silicon manganese spot prices are flat, but the futures prices decline significantly. The operating rate of silicon manganese enterprises decreases slightly, and the production of southern factories is unprofitable. The production rhythm of main - producing areas is stable, and the sentiment of raising prices is strong [7] Soda Ash - The soda ash futures contract falls sharply. Supply is in an over - supply pattern, downstream demand is weak, and profits decline. Although there are concerns about capacity exit, the long - term price is still suppressed [8] Glass - The glass futures contract falls sharply. Supply pressure increases during the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. Terminal real estate demand is weak, and profits increase slightly. The price is high and then falls, and observation is recommended [8] Group 6: Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trade agreements between the US and Europe and the US and Japan may boost market sentiment, but high tariffs restrict the rise of commodities. The key to copper price trends lies in the tariff implementation time. If tariffs are implemented before August 1, copper prices will weaken [9] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fall due to the large decline in alumina and the weakening of other varieties. The fundamentals are weak, and inventory accumulates. The impact of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policy is limited, and short - selling is not recommended for the time being [10] Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and production costs rise. Enterprises turn from profit to loss, and some reduce production. It is in the off - season, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to be short - term volatile and slightly strong, but the upside space is limited [10] Tin - The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi continues to rise, and the supply of tin ore tends to be loose. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory accumulates slightly. Tin prices are expected to be short - term volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit down. Production decreases, and inventory accumulates. Due to the overall weakening of the commodity market and policy adjustments, short - term observation is recommended [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures contract hits the daily limit down. Production increases, and inventory slowly decreases. Pay attention to the overall commodity market sentiment, and a short - term short and long - term long strategy is recommended [13][14] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures contract falls significantly. The prices of related products are mixed. Pay attention to the overall commodity market sentiment, and a short - term short and long - term long strategy is recommended [14] Group 7: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Tensions between the US and Russia may threaten crude oil supply. The market is re - evaluating supply risks, and short - term fluctuations due to sanctions should be watched out for [15] Asphalt - The asphalt futures contract stabilizes after a decline. Inventory slightly decreases, and demand is average. The basis is stable, and the spot situation is general. The upside space of the futures price is limited [15] PX - The tight supply pattern of PX continues, but the external price falls. The PX - to - naphtha spread remains stable, but the PTA processing fee is at a low level, which may lead to downstream negative feedback [15] PTA - PTA prices decline with the market. The new device is about to operate, and downstream demand is weak. Although there are expectations of demand recovery, short - term inventory accumulation and price fluctuations continue [16] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol port inventory slightly decreases, but the price falls due to the overall market decline. There are expectations of the resumption of domestic plants, and the price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [16][17] Short - Fiber - Short - fiber prices fall due to the overall market decline. Terminal orders are average, and inventory decreases slightly. The price is expected to follow the polyester end and may be short - sold on rallies [17] Methanol - The methanol futures contract falls. The upside is restricted by factors such as device restart and profit compression, while the downside is supported by coal costs. It is expected to return to the oscillation range, and waiting for policy implementation is recommended [17] PP - PP prices fall after a rebound. Multiple policies support prices, but supply is loose, and demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak [18] LLDPE - The polyethylene futures contract corrects. Short - term fluctuations are affected by policies, and the long - term supply is in an over - supply pattern. Prices are expected to be short - term volatile and long - term weak [18] Group 8: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - US soybean futures prices fall. The export inspection volume meets expectations, and the growing conditions are good. The excellent - good rate, flowering rate, and pod - setting rate are all better than expected [19] Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - Sino - US trade talks affect the US soybean market. If the US soybean production increase is stable, it may drag down the domestic soybean meal market. Domestic soybean meal inventory accumulates, and the basis is weak [20] Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - Palm oil prices face pressure at high levels, and soybean oil prices rise, but the fundamentals lack support. The spot trading of soybean oil is light, and inventory accumulates. The inventory of rapeseed oil decreases [21] Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are in a bull market but face increasing resistance. Domestic inventory accumulates, and there is pressure for selling hedging. Malaysian palm oil production increases, and exports decline, with strong inventory - accumulation expectations [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the Fed may be patient in cutting interest rates due to strong economic data, and the progress of tariff negotiations has made the trade situation clearer, leading to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index. The progress of US - EU trade negotiations has boosted global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. The "anti - involution" policy and the introduction of stable - growth policies for ten major industries have boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to correct from high - level fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals may fluctuate at high levels, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as hydropower, liquor, and diversified finance, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Although economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, consumption and investment slowed down in June. The "anti - involution" policy and stable - growth policies have boosted risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term, paying attention to correction risks [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds are expected to correct from high - level fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to rebound last Friday, but the night - session prices fluctuated. The sharp decline in coking coal prices led to a correction in the steel market. Real - world demand remains weak, and the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons week - on - week. Supply decreased by 1.22 tons week - on - week, mainly due to the decline in hot - rolled coil production. There may be production restrictions around the September 3 parade, and the short - term supply increase is limited. It is advisable to treat the steel market as a range - bound market in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore corrected last Friday. The weekly iron - water output decreased slightly, and the room for further growth in iron ore demand is limited. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand. The supply of medium - grade powder in ports is sufficient, the block - ore resources are concentrated, and the supply of low - grade powder has been supplemented. The global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 122 tons week - on - week, but the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream mines increased significantly. The port inventory increased slightly. It is advisable to treat the iron - ore price as a range - bound market in the short term [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, and tariffs are generally easing. The US economy remains resilient, but the manufacturing industry is weakening, while the eurozone manufacturing industry is stabilizing. The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time. Short - term stable - growth plans are sentimentally positive for copper prices. The current spot TC of copper concentrate is - 42.63 dollars/ton, and Comex copper inventories are approaching 250,000 short tons [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, the situation is weakening, with a slight increase in domestic social inventories and a significant increase in LME inventories. Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document has boosted market sentiment, the actual impact is expected to be limited. It is advisable not to short for the time being and wait for the sentiment to cool down [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising, leading to losses and even production cuts. It is in the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased to 55.51%, and the supply of tin mines is expected to be loose. Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased by 230 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside will be suppressed in the medium term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The exchange has restricted the position of the LC2509 contract, and the commodity sentiment has declined. There are many supply - side disturbances under the "anti - involution" background. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long after the correction. The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.5% to 18,630 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 48.6%. The price of imported lithium ore has rebounded, and the social inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory have increased [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" market has driven the futures and spot prices of industrial silicon above the full cost of the main low - cost area, but there are inventory and supply pressures above. The demand for silicone has decreased due to a fault - shutdown. It is necessary to be vigilant against short - term correction risks [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price remained stable last week, and the futures price had a high premium. The number of warehouse receipts increased. It is necessary to pay attention to the convergence of the basis. The inventory increased slightly, and the prices of N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components increased. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy in the photovoltaic industry, the price of silicon wafers increased by 35% in July, and the production schedule decreased by 10% [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The recent driving force in the oil market is limited. The strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening confidence in the US reaching an agreement with major trading partners have led to a slight decline in oil prices. The probability of the US and Europe reaching an agreement is 50%, which may threaten energy demand. The inventory is low, and the spot market has not shown obvious signs of weakness. The strengthening of the US dollar may continue to suppress priced commodities, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected with the sector and continued to fluctuate at a low level. The inventory has not shown obvious signs of depletion, and the overall demand is average. The basis has rebounded slightly, mainly due to the decline in the futures price. The social inventory is slightly accumulating. After the peak season, the market expectation will gradually decline. The short - term absolute price will follow the crude - oil center, but the upside of the futures price is limited due to the inventory situation [15]. - **PX**: The short - term PTA operating rate remains high, and the tight supply situation of PX continues. The overseas price has risen to 874 US dollars, and the price difference between PX and naphtha has also risen to 293 US dollars. However, the PTA processing fee has dropped to a six - month low, which may lead to production cuts in leading plants. PX occupies too much industrial - chain profit, which may lead to downstream negative feedback risks. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside is not overly optimistic [15]. - **PTA**: The spot - trading volume is still declining, and some spot prices have weakened to a discount of 5 yuan to the main contract. The main - contract price has weakened with the futures market. The downstream operating rate remains low at 88.7%, and downstream production cuts still exist. The PTA processing fee has remained at a low level of around 150, which may lead to a reduction in the operating rate. The short - term inventory is slightly accumulating, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased slightly to 54.4 tons, and the import volume has remained low. The coal - chemical products have risen slightly due to capacity - adjustment news. However, there is an expectation of the resumption of domestic shutdown and maintenance plants, the short - term downstream operating rate remains low, and the terminal orders in the off - season have not shown unexpected growth. The futures price has failed to break through the pressure level and is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of crude oil has fluctuated moderately, but the short - fiber price has declined with the sector. The terminal orders are still average, and the operating rate has bottomed out but has not rebounded significantly. The short - fiber inventory has decreased slightly, but more significant inventory depletion needs to wait until the peak - season demand stocking in August. The short - fiber price is expected to follow the polyester end in the medium term and can be shorted on rallies [16]. - **Methanol**: The coal - mine capacity - verification policy has pushed up coal prices, which has strengthened the support for methanol. Under the "anti - involution" policy, the market is overheated, and the short - term price is still strong. Fundamentally, the upside of methanol is limited by plant restart, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits. It is necessary to be vigilant against the expected difference near the Politburo meeting, and it is advisable to be cautiously long or wait and see for conservatives [16]. - **PP**: Affected by multiple policies such as "anti - involution", "chemical - plant assessment", and coal inspections, the PP price has rebounded, and the bullish market has continued. The short - term price is strong, but the futures price will face a pressure level, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see [17]. - **LLDPE**: Short - term macro - policies have boosted commodity prices, and polyethylene has followed the upward trend. In the medium and long term, the oversupply situation has not changed significantly, and downstream demand has weakened during the price increase. The import profit has increased significantly, which may lead to a worse - than - expected fundamental situation. It is expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the medium and long term [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The impact of extreme heat in the US soybean - producing areas has decreased. Although the weekly crop - quality rate has slightly decreased, the hot and humid weather is generally beneficial to crop growth. US soybean exports have cooled down, and the news of direct domestic imports of South American soybean meal has weakened China's dependence on US soybeans. Currently, US soybeans are slightly under pressure, but the bullish market for soybean oil provides support. The market is optimistic about the Sino - US negotiations next week, which also provides phased support for US soybeans [18]. - **Palm Oil**: Since July, the production of Malaysian palm oil has progressed smoothly, the exports have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory - accumulation expectation is strong. Fundamentally, India has low oil inventories and high cost - performance, and there is an expectation of improved exports during the festival - stocking period. In the related market, crude oil has fluctuated, and the biodiesel policy has no room for fermentation. The domestic related oil fundamentals are under pressure, and the soybean - palm oil price has rebounded with the correction of palm oil, but the price inversion is still serious. In addition, the arrival of imported palm oil in China has increased, the spot circulation in the off - season is average, and it is close to the near - month import cost line. It is expected that the pressure of selling hedging at high prices may still exist. The palm - oil market is bullish, but the upside resistance has increased significantly. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The decline in US soybean and Brazilian export prices has led to a weak adjustment in the expectation of domestic long - term soybean imports. In addition, the increase in direct domestic imports of soybean meal and the reduction of soybean and soybean - meal export tariffs in Argentina have weakened the market's concern about the shortage of soybeans and soybean meal in the fourth quarter. The correction of the futures prices of the 01 contracts of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 has basically priced in the logic of cost decline and is anchored to the cost of direct - imported soybean meal for support. The negative news adjustment has ended, and it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of the US soybean market in the next stage. It is expected that the soybean - meal price will stabilize in the short term. However, if the US soybean production - increase expectation remains stable, there may be a further expanding bearish market at the end of the crop - growth period in late August [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean - oil inventory pressure is prominent, the terminal consumption is still in the off - season, and the basis quotes in various regions have continued to weaken. Currently, the soybean - meal price has declined significantly, and the cost has not changed significantly. The soybean - meal price has received seesaw support in the short term. In addition, the fundamental expectation of related palm oil is also poor. Therefore, the soybean - palm oil price difference is expected to have a phased upward trend in the short term. For rapeseed oil, the domestic port inventory is high, the circulation is slow, and with the increase in direct - import channels for rapeseed and oil meal, the concern about future supply is fading. The preference of long - position funds is not high, and the weak - range market may continue [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but offers investment suggestions for different asset classes and sectors: - Stocks: Short - term cautious long [2][3] - Bonds: Short - term high - level oscillatory correction, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Commodities: - Black metals: Short - term volatile increase, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous metals: Short - term oscillatory rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious long [2] Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and the US economic growth accelerated due to better - than - expected PMI and employment data, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, although the economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, consumption and investment slowed down in June. The "anti - involution" policy and the ten - industry growth - stabilizing policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - Different asset classes and sectors have different trends and investment suggestions based on their fundamentals and policy impacts. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Global situation**: The European Central Bank's decision, the EU's anti - tariff plan, and the easing of global trade tensions, along with the better - than - expected US economic data, have led to a rise in global risk appetite. The US dollar index rebounded [2]. - **Domestic situation**: The first - half economic growth was higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Asset performance**: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term; bonds to correct at a high level; black metals to be volatile; non - ferrous metals to rebound; energy and chemicals to oscillate; precious metals to oscillate at a high level [2]. Stocks - Driven by sectors such as Hainan concept, energy metals, and rare earth permanent magnets, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was oscillating strongly on Thursday. The supply contraction expectation of coking coal supported the steel market. The real - world demand was weak, and the production and consumption of five major steel products decreased. The supply may be restricted around the 9.3 parade. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [4]. - **Iron ore**: The spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly on Thursday, while the futures price continued to weaken. The pig iron production is at a high level but has limited upward space. The global iron ore shipment increased, but the shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased. The price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [4]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese decreased on Thursday. The demand for ferroalloys was weak due to the decline in steel production. The prices of raw materials such as manganese ore and coal were strong. The steel tender price increased. The prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The EU and the US are approaching a tariff agreement. The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan has boosted sentiment. The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum oscillated narrowly on Thursday. The import of scrap aluminum decreased. The fundamentals are weak, but the policy has boosted sentiment. The price increase is limited [11]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but has limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upward space will be restricted in the medium term [12]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate increased significantly on Thursday. Supply disruptions and policy sentiment support the price, which is expected to be oscillating strongly [13]. - **Industrial silicon**: The price of industrial silicon decreased slightly on Thursday. The "anti - involution" sentiment has an impact, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon increased significantly on Thursday. The margin requirements have been adjusted. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The EU and the US are close to a tariff agreement, but the resumption of Chevron's production in Venezuela may increase supply. The oil price is expected to be bearish in the long term and oscillate in the short term [16]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt is stable after a correction. The inventory de - stocking has stagnated, and the demand in the peak season is average. The price is expected to follow the crude oil price in the short term, with limited upward space [16]. - **PX**: The support from the previous strong resonance of the sector has weakened. PX is in a tight supply situation, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [17]. - **PTA**: The PTA price has increased, but the spot drive is weak. The demand is in the off - season, and the processing fee is low. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber has increased driven by the crude oil price and sector resonance. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the medium term [18]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol has increased. The inventory has decreased, but the long - term supply pressure is large. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but limited in the long term [19]. - **PP**: The price of PP has adjusted slightly. The policy expectation is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure in the long term [20]. - **PL**: The price of propylene is stable. The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [20]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE has adjusted. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price may rebound in the short term but has a downward trend in the long term [21]. - **Urea**: The price of urea is in a stalemate. The demand is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The overnight CBOT November soybean price increased. The US soybean export sales were lower than expected [24]. - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: The soybean meal is expected to be strong in the short term and may correct significantly in mid - to - late August. The cost - driven force is not strong, and the futures price increase is limited [24]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: The inventory pressure of soybean oil is high, and the demand is weak. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the soybean and rapeseed oil market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may increase [25]. - **Palm oil**: The palm oil market is in a short - term bull market, but the upward resistance is increasing. The inventory is increasing, and the selling pressure may increase [25]. - **Pigs**: The pig supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, and the price increase is limited. The futures contract profit is high, and it is a suitable time for selling hedging [26]. - **Corn**: Corn is in the supply - demand off - season from late July to August. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly. The weather may affect the price in mid - to - late September [26][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and is likely to reach one with the EU, leading to a decline in market risk - aversion and a continued rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in H1 was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may experience a high - level correction; commodities in different sectors have different trends, with some being slightly stronger and some being volatile. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro situation**: Overseas, the US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff rate on Japan, and the probability of the US - EU trade agreement has increased. Market risk appetite has risen, and the US dollar index is weak. Domestically, H1 economic growth was higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed. Policy measures aim to boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - **Asset trends**: Stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term and it's advisable to be cautiously long; bonds are expected to correct at a high level and it's advisable to wait and see; for commodities, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations and it's advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals may rebound with short - term fluctuations and it's advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals may fluctuate and it's advisable to wait and see; precious metals may be volatile at a high level and it's advisable to be cautiously long. [2] Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to rise, driven by sectors such as hydropower, securities, insurance, and kitchen and bathroom appliances. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. It's advisable to be cautiously long in the short - term. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Wednesday. With the approaching tariff deadline on August 1st, market risk appetite has recovered, putting pressure on precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, and gold still has strategic allocation value in the long - term. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel futures and spot prices continued to rebound. The "anti - involution" policy supports the cost of steel, and the actual demand is okay. The supply increase space is limited in the short - term. It's advisable to view the steel market as slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short - term. [4][5] - **Iron ore**: Iron ore futures and spot prices weakened on Wednesday. The iron - water output is at a high level with limited upward space. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it's advisable to view the price as range - bound in the short - term. [5] - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron may rebound following coal prices. The production situation of silicon manganese is relatively stable, and the mentality of silicon - iron merchants is positive. [6] Chemicals - **Soda ash**: The soda ash futures contract was weak on Wednesday. The supply is still in an oversupply situation, the demand is weak, and the profit has declined. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is still under pressure. [7] - **Glass**: The glass futures contract was weak on Wednesday. The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the price. [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US - Japan trade agreement has an impact on the market. The short - term sentiment is boosted by the industrial policy, but the future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time. [9] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fell, following the alumina trend. The fundamental situation is weak, and the policy impact is limited. It's not advisable to short for now. [9] - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, but the upward space is limited. [10] - **Tin**: The supply is recovering, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with upward pressure in the medium - term. [10] - **Lithium carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures price fell. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations due to the "anti - involution" policy. [11] - **Industrial silicon**: The industrial silicon futures price rose. The "anti - involution" policy drives the price, and it's expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short - term. [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price rose significantly. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to market feedback and capital changes. [12] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The news of possible progress in US - EU trade negotiations has offset the impact of weak spot markets. However, the increase in Cushing crude oil inventory and upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations bring uncertainties. The oil price is expected to be mainly volatile. [13] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price has回调. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory is not being effectively reduced. The short - term price will follow the crude oil price but may be weak with fluctuations. [13] - **PX**: The PX price is in a slightly stronger range - bound situation. The supply is tight, but the upward space is limited. [14] - **PTA**: The PTA price is expected to be volatile. The demand is in the off - season, and the processing fee is low, with a risk of production reduction. [14] - **Ethylene glycol**: The ethylene glycol price is oscillating at the support level. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the price is expected to be volatile. [14] - **Methanol**: The methanol price is short - term strong but limited by the fundamentals. The inventory has increased, and attention should be paid to capital flow. [16] - **PP**: The PP price has risen due to policy expectations, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The long - term price is under pressure. [17] - **PL**: The PL price has limited upward drivers due to supply pressure and weak demand. The price may be volatile due to new listing and policy impact. [17] - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price has adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak. The short - term price may rebound but has limited space, and the long - term price may decline. [18] - **Urea**: The urea price has risen due to market sentiment, but the demand is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to be weak with fluctuations. [18][19] Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The price of US soybeans has been affected by weather. The expected rainfall may limit crop pressure. [20] - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: It's advisable to increase long positions in US soybeans above 1000. The short - term price of soybean meal is still strong, but the upward space is limited. [20] - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: The inventory pressure of soybean oil is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price of rapeseed oil may decline if palm oil corrects. The soybean - palm oil spread may widen. [21] - **Palm oil**: It's a short - term bull market for palm oil, but the upward resistance is increasing. It's advisable to be cautious when chasing orders. [21] - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is increasing, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is testing the support level. Policy rumors have affected the futures price, but the long - term price increase is limited. [22] - **Corn**: The corn price has slightly rebounded. The supply is gradually tightening, but the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. [22][23]

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overseas, the US dollar index continues to decline, and global risk appetite has generally increased. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stock indices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; government bonds are at a high level and volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **General situation**: Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields are falling, and global risk appetite is rising. Domestically, economic growth is higher than expected in H1 but slows in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Assets**: Stock indices are volatile and slightly stronger, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Government bonds are at a high level and volatile, and cautious observation is advised. For commodities, black metals are expected to rebound from low levels, non - ferrous metals are expected to rebound, energy and chemicals are volatile, and precious metals are at a high level and volatile, with cautious long positions recommended for relevant sectors [2]. Stock Indices - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as hydropower, engineering machinery, and civil explosives and cement, the domestic stock market continues to rise [3]. - **Fundamentals and policy**: Economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but consumption and investment slow down in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers are strengthened. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market trend**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline and other factors support the strength of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down. The volatility of precious metals is expected to increase, and they are short - term strong. Gold's medium - and long - term upward support pattern remains unchanged, and its strategic allocation value is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Policy expectations are strengthened, and steel prices continue to rebound. The real demand is weak in the short term, and the demand for plates is stronger than that for building materials. Speculative demand has increased. The output of five major steel products has decreased, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it is recommended to view it with a volatile and slightly stronger mindset [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounds. Under the policy expectation, the black metal sector rises, driving the iron ore price up. The steel demand is in the off - season, but steel mill profits are high. The iron ore supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The cost of silicon manganese production in southern factories is high, and the production profit is low. The cost of silicon iron has increased slightly, and the production rhythm is stable. Short - term, the prices may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract rises significantly. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, the demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the supply - demand pattern. Short - term, the price is supported [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract price hits the daily limit. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The price is supported by the "anti - involution" policy [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan boosts sentiment. The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time, and there is uncertainty. Short - term, the plan is positive for copper prices [10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, it is weak in the near term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document boosts market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited, and the increase is expected to be limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased. The industry is in a loss state, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is better than expected, and the mine supply tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract rises significantly. The production has increased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the re - pricing of the industry chain. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The industry is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the market should pay attention to the margin adjustment [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As the US trade negotiation deadline approaches, the oil price has fallen for three consecutive days. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and be in a weak and volatile state [15]. - **PX**: PX follows the upstream raw materials and is in a range - bound state. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PTA**: The spot is weak, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is driven by the "anti - involution" resonance but has limited upside. There is a risk of production cuts due to low processing fees [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported at a certain level. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is slightly lower, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [16]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang has risen and then fallen slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The price is short - term strong under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the upside is limited [17][18]. - **PP**: The PP price is slightly adjusted. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the upside is limited [18]. - **PL**: The propylene futures are newly listed, and the price is affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is large, and the price increase driver is limited [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE is adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price may rebound in the short - term but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Urea**: The urea price has risen with the market sentiment. Fundamentally, the demand is weakening, and the supply is loose. The price is expected to rise in the short - term but be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to weather conditions. After a short - term heatwave, there are expected to be showers, which may limit crop stress [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal is expected to have a pattern of inventory accumulation and weak basis. The rapeseed meal consumption is far below expectations, and the inventory is slow to decline. The short - term market is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The rapeseed oil has high port inventory and slow circulation. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may widen [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of palm oil has increased, and the futures price has risen. The short - term market is bullish, but the resistance to price increases has increased. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the export improvement is less than expected [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Domestic market optimism is fermenting, and risk assets are continuously strong. Overseas, the outlook for the EU - US trade agreement is worrying, but the overall trade risk has decreased. The US Treasury Secretary will soon talk with China. The US dollar index and US bond yields have declined, and global risk appetite has increased. In China, economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policies to boost domestic risk appetite have been introduced. Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to be short - term strong with caution for long positions; bonds are at a high level with cautious observation; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Overall situation**: Overseas trade risks decrease, and the US dollar and bond yields fall. In China, economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slow down. Policies boost domestic risk appetite. Stocks are short - term strong, bonds are high - level volatile, and commodities have different trends [2]. - **Stock index**: Driven by sectors like hydropower, construction machinery, etc., the domestic stock market rises. The short - term macro - upward drive is enhanced, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Precious metals**: On Monday, the precious metal market rose. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline supports precious metals. The short - term gold is in a box - shaped range, and silver has a strong technical rebound logic. The long - term support for gold remains [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Monday, the steel spot and futures markets rose, and trading volume increased. Policy and project news boost market sentiment. Real demand is weak, but there are differences among varieties. Supply decreases, and the cost support is strong. The steel market is expected to be short - term strong [5][6]. - **Iron ore**: On Monday, the iron ore spot and futures prices rebounded. Steel mills have high profits, and iron water production increased. The short - term price is expected to be strong [6]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: On Monday, the prices rebounded slightly. Demand decreased, and the cost of raw materials changed. The production rhythm is stable, and the price may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda ash**: On Monday, the price rose significantly. Supply is in an over - supply pattern, demand is weak, and profits decline. The short - term price is supported by policies, but the long - term is suppressed [8]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the price rose. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and demand is weak. Profits increase, and the price is supported by policies [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time. Short - term, the growth - stabilizing plan is favorable to the price [10]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory is in a cumulative trend, and the fundamentals are weak. The price increase is limited [10]. - **Aluminum alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, production costs rise, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be strong but with limited upside [10]. - **Tin**: Supply is better than expected, and demand is weak. The short - term price is volatile, and the medium - term upside is limited [11]. - **Lithium carbonate**: On Monday, the price rose. Supply increases, inventory accumulates. Affected by policies, it is expected to be strong with attention to macro - disturbances [12]. - **Industrial silicon**: On Monday, the price rose. Production is stable, supply decreases, and the price is driven by manufacturers and policies. It is expected to be strong [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the price rose. After policy adjustment, the price increased. It is expected to be strong with attention to market feedback [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: Due to trade negotiation progress and Russian oil exports, the oil price is expected to be weak in the short term [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price is strong but lacks upward drive. Demand in the peak season is average, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [15]. - **PX**: It maintains a tight pattern, and the price is supported by the sector. The upward space is limited [16]. - **PTA**: The basis is at a flat level, and demand is low. The price is volatile, and there is a risk of production reduction [16]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Inventory decreases slightly, but demand is low. The short - term price is volatile [16]. - **Short - fiber**: The price follows the polyester sector and is weak. Orders are average, and inventory is high [17]. - **Methanol**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and the price is expected to be weak [17][18]. - **PP**: Supply pressure increases, demand is weak, and the price center is expected to move down [18]. - **LLDPE**: Demand is weak, inventory rises. The short - term price may rebound, but the long - term center will move down [18]. Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The soybean good - quality rate decreased, and high - temperature risks need attention [19]. - **Soybean/canola meal**: The soybean meal is in a weak - basis and inventory - accumulating pattern. The canola meal consumption is lower than expected. The short - term price is high - level volatile [20]. - **Soybean/canola oil**: Soybean oil inventory pressure is high, and canola oil has no fundamental support. The price is affected by palm oil [21]. - **Palm oil**: Domestic inventory increases, and the short - term price has resistance. The Malaysian palm oil export may improve, which may support the price [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core View of the Report Domestic market optimism continues to ferment, and risk appetite continues to rise. Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields have declined, and global risk appetite has cooled. In China, economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as small metals, energy metals, and trade, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The economy grew higher than expected in H1, but consumption and investment slowed in June. Policies may boost risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers have increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term high - level oscillations, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Last week, precious metals oscillated at high levels. Trump's tariff announcements and US economic data affected gold prices. The Fed's rate - cut expectations have slowed, and the US dollar's rise restricts the upside of gold prices. In the short term, gold is in a box - shaped oscillation range, while silver has a relatively strong technical - surface catch - up logic. In the medium and long term, the strategic allocation value of gold is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Apparent consumption declined, but steel futures and spot prices continued to be strong. The market expects policy support. Real - demand weakened, and supply decreased. Cost support is strong. Short - term, a slightly bullish oscillation is expected [2][5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures and spot prices strengthened. Although it is the off - season for finished - product demand, high steel - mill profits led to a rebound in hot - metal production. After the end - of - quarter shipment rush, the shipping volume decreased. Short - term, a slightly bullish oscillation is expected [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices were flat, and futures prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys decreased. The production of some factories in Inner Mongolia resumed, and the开工 rate increased slightly. Short - term, prices may follow the rebound of coal prices [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract was in a range - bound pattern. Supply increased, and demand weakened. Profits declined. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is pressured by the supply - demand imbalance. Short - term, prices are supported [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract was in a range - bound pattern. Supply pressure increased during the off - season. The market expects production cuts due to the "anti - involution" policy. Demand remained weak, but profits increased. Short - term, prices are supported [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: US inflation rebounded, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations decreased. The upcoming stable - growth plan for the non - ferrous industry is positive. The key to copper prices lies in the tariff implementation time [11]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventories are still increasing. The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have weakened. Short - term, there is support at 20200 - 20300, but the price may decline after oscillation [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap - aluminum supply is tight, and production costs are rising. It is the off - season for demand. Short - term, prices may oscillate slightly upward, but the upside is limited [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weak. Short - term, prices will oscillate, and the medium - term upside is restricted [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Futures and spot prices rose. Production increased, and social inventories continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, short - term, prices are expected to oscillate slightly upward [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures and spot prices rose. Production remained stable, and the number of open furnaces decreased. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate slightly upward [14]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures and spot prices rose. The exchange's regulatory measures led to a decline on Friday, but the sector remains strong. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate slightly upward [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Short - term trading has slowed slightly, but the spot is still tight. The market is concerned about tariffs and OPEC+ production increases. Mid - term, prices will continue to oscillate [16]. - **Asphalt**: Prices followed crude - oil costs and oscillated strongly. Demand is average, and inventory accumulation may occur. Short - term, prices will follow the crude - oil center but oscillate weakly [16]. - **PX**: The supply is tight after the commissioning of downstream PTA plants. The price has rebounded slightly. Short - term, prices will oscillate slightly upward, but the upside is limited [16]. - **PTA**: The basis has declined, and trading volume has increased slightly. Demand is in the off - season, and processing fees are low. Short - term, prices will oscillate [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventories have decreased slightly. Overseas plant outages and low import expectations have led to inventory reduction. Short - term, prices will oscillate [17]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices followed the polyester sector and oscillated weakly. Terminal orders are average, and inventories are high. Short - term, prices will continue to oscillate weakly [17]. - **Methanol**: Supply has increased, and demand has decreased. Inventories have risen, especially at ports. Short - term, prices will oscillate weakly [18][19]. - **PP**: Production is expected to increase, and demand is weak during the off - season. Inventories are expected to accumulate. Short - term, prices will move downward [19]. - **LLDPE**: Demand is in the off - season, and inventories are rising. Short - term, prices may rebound slightly but with limited upside [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: High - temperature warnings in the US soybean - producing areas increase the risk of yield reduction. The market's concern about US soybean exports has eased. Short - term, prices may have a phased rebound [20]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: Soybean meal is the leading protein product. The futures price has strengthened, and the spot price has risen. Short - term, prices will oscillate at high levels [21]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil has a stable supply. Both are affected by palm oil. Short - term, prices will follow palm oil [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm - oil export tax will increase. Indian demand for replenishment exists. Short - term, the market is bullish, but the resistance to rising prices has increased [22][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Global risk appetite has increased due to better - than - expected US retail and employment data, while in China, although H1 economic growth exceeded expectations, consumption and investment slowed in June. Policy measures such as "anti - involution" and "stable employment" can boost domestic risk preference in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term; bonds are at a high level and oscillating; different commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term investment suggestions being cautious [2]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Overseas: US economic data is strong, with the June retail sales monthly rate at 0.6% (higher than the expected 0.1%), which supports the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts, and the US dollar strengthens. - Domestic: H1 economic growth exceeded expectations, but consumption and investment slowed in June. Policies like "anti - involution" and "stable employment" can boost domestic risk preference. - Asset operations: Stocks are recommended for short - term cautious long positions; bonds for short - term high - level oscillation and cautious observation; different commodity sectors have corresponding short - term operations [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market rose slightly driven by sectors such as components, fruit chains, and military industries. - The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress, with short - term upward macro - driving forces increasing. - Operation: Short - term cautious long positions [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals showed a differentiated trend. The US economic data was good, and the US dollar strengthened, putting pressure on gold. - In the long - term, the support logic for precious metals remains solid, with factors like the "Big and Beautiful Act" accelerating the consumption of the US dollar's credit and geopolitical uncertainties and economic slowdown expectations strengthening the value of gold allocation. - Operation: Short - term high - level oscillation and cautious long positions [3][4]. Black Metals Soda Ash - On Thursday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1225 yuan/ton, showing a strong trend. - Supply: Production is stable, but there is an oversupply situation. - Demand: Downstream demand is at a low level, mainly for rigid production. - Profit: Profits decreased week - on - week, with both ammonia - alkali and combined - alkali methods in the red. - Long - term: The price is suppressed due to the loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory [5]. Glass - On Thursday, the main contract of glass was at 1092 yuan/ton, showing a strong trend. - Supply: The daily melting volume increased week - on - week, and there is supply pressure in the off - season. There are expectations of production cuts due to "anti - involution" policies. - Demand: The real estate industry is weak, and demand is hard to improve. - Profit: Profits increased week - on - week. - Long - term: A long - term upward trend requires the cooperation of downstream demand and the implementation of "anti - involution" policies [6]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - US PPI is lower than expected, with low inflation pressure, but the economy is still resilient. - The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time. If it is before August 1, copper prices will weaken; if it is in September/October, it will support copper prices [7][8]. Aluminum - China's air - conditioner production in June decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. - Social inventories are still in the process of accumulation, and the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have weakened. - Operation: Look for resistance levels to short after a short - term oscillation [8]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses. - It is in the off - season, and demand is weak. - Short - term: Prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the upward space is limited [9]. Tin - Supply: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has recovered slightly, and the supply reduction is lower than expected. - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and the order volume has decreased. - Short - term: Prices will oscillate, but in the medium - term, factors like high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weakening demand will limit the upward space [9][10]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 2.47%. - Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to oscillate strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy. - Attention should be paid to macro - disturbances [10]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose by 0.75%. - Affected by the "anti - involution" theme, it is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. Polysilicon - On Thursday, the main contract of polysilicon rose by 7.24%. - Affected by policy news, the expectations for industrial silicon and polysilicon are strong, and short - term verification is difficult. - Operation: Cautiously enter long positions [12]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Short - term supply is tight, with a decrease in US crude oil inventories and a reduction in Iraq's crude oil production. - US economic data is good, alleviating concerns about weak demand. - Short - term: The tight pattern will continue, but there is a risk of weakening in the medium - to - long - term [13]. Asphalt - The price follows the cost of crude oil and oscillates, but the short - term demand is average, and the upward space is limited. - The shipment volume has decreased, and the inventory is starting to accumulate. - Attention should be paid to inventory destocking in the future [13]. PX - Crude oil prices are rising slightly, but PX prices are limited by the negative feedback from the polyester sector. - Although the downstream PTA start - up rate has increased, there is a possibility of weakening demand in the future. - Short - term: It will oscillate weakly, but there is limited downward driving force [14]. PTA - After the improvement of spot liquidity, the futures price is under pressure, and the basis and monthly spread have weakened. - The supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern continues, and the inventory has increased. - Short - term: The upward space is limited, and there is a risk of the price center moving down [14]. Ethylene Glycol - The futures price is fluctuating around the support level, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. - Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. - Short - term: It will continue to oscillate weakly [15][16]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber has decreased slightly following the trend of the polyester sector. - Terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. - Medium - term: It will oscillate weakly following the polyester sector [16]. Methanol - The restart of inland devices has increased supply, and there are rumors of olefin device maintenance. - The futures price is affected by positive factors at home and abroad, with the 09 contract expected to oscillate and the 01 contract having long - position opportunities [16]. PP - Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season and weakening. - The price center is expected to move down, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [16]. LLDPE - It is in the off - season, and demand is weak. Although the number of maintenance has increased, the inventory is rising. - Short - term: It may rebound, but the space is limited; in the medium - to - long - term, the price center will move down [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - New - season US soybean exports exceeded expectations, and technical buying continued to drive up the price. - The 2024/25 and 2025/26 market - year export sales data showed different trends [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The M09 contract of domestic soybean meal continued to be strong, and the dynamic cost is expected to be strong. - The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to the Sino - US soybean trade relationship. - Rapeseed meal has seen a significant increase in positions, but the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is loose, but the far - month supply pressure is fully priced, and the monthly spread has rebounded. - If Australia's rapeseed imports are fully liberalized, the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply chain may become more stable, and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure [19]. Palm Oil - Indonesia has increased the biodiesel blending ratio, and the consumption of palm oil for biodiesel has increased significantly. - The reference price of Malaysian palm oil has been raised, and the export tax will increase. - The import demand of India is strong, and the export situation may improve in the future [20]. Corn - The auction of imported corn and expected auctions of old rice in August may impact corn prices. - Feed enterprises are waiting and watching, mainly for rigid demand. - Futures: After the 09 contract fell below 2300, there is limited willingness to short, and the buying drive is weak [20][21]. Hogs - In early July, large - scale pig farms were holding back sales, but supply recovered in mid - July, and pig prices declined. - Secondary fattening pigs will be concentrated for sale in August. - Demand may increase in late August, and pig prices may be under pressure until early August [21].