1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term shock is on the strong side, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term shock is on the weak side, and cautious observation is recommended [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious observation [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term shock is on the strong side, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term shock, cautious observation [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level shock is on the strong side, and cautious long positions are recommended [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US may impose more tariffs on imported auto parts, and the dollar is weak due to expected Fed rate cuts. Domestically, economic data is lower than expected, but risk appetite has increased due to reduced external uncertainties and enhanced easing expectations. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and easing expectations [3]. - Different sectors in the commodity market have different trends. For example, steel may continue to rebound, while some energy - chemical products are in a state of shock [6][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Overseas**: The US may increase tariffs on auto parts, the dollar index is at a 10 - week low due to expected Fed rate cuts, and global risk appetite has increased [3]. - **Domestic**: In August, consumption, investment, and industrial added - value growth were lower than expected, but risk appetite increased due to policy measures and reduced external uncertainties. The market focuses on domestic policies, and the short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened [3]. - **Asset Recommendations**: Short - term long positions for equity indices, cautious observation for treasury bonds. For commodities, short - term long positions for non - ferrous metals and precious metals, and cautious observation for others [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Futures and spot prices continue to rebound. Demand is still weak, but supply is likely to shrink. The market is expected to be in a short - term shock - strong trend [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are strong, but the upward space is limited. Supply is high, and inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to view prices with an interval shock idea [6][7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot and futures prices have rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Soda Ash**: High - level shock. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and it is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - to - long term, while being vigilant about short - term policy impacts [8]. - **Glass**: High - level shock. Supply is stable, demand growth is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: Prices are strongly rising, driven by expected Fed rate cuts. It is short - term strong, but the upward space is limited [9]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are rising, but the fundamentals are weak. There is a technical pressure level at 21,300 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Supply is tight, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be in a short - term shock - strong trend with limited upward space [10]. - **Tin**: Supply has decreased due to maintenance, but it is expected to recover. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to be in a short - term shock - strong trend with limited upward space [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are rising, with both supply and demand increasing. The market is expected to be in a shock - strong trend [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices are rising, and it is expected to be in a shock - strong trend [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices are rising, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock and easy - to - rise - hard - to - fall state [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices are slightly rising due to supply pressure and expected Fed rate cuts [13]. - **Asphalt**: Prices are following the rise of crude oil, but demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited [14]. - **PX**: Prices are rebounding slightly, in a tight pattern, and are expected to be in a shock state [14]. - **PTA**: Prices are rebounding slightly, but the upward space is limited. There is also support below, and it is expected to be in a shock state [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is expected to be in a weak - shock state due to factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Prices are slightly rising, but the upward space is limited, and it can be short - sold in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is rising. It is in a short - term shock - weak state with limited downward space [16]. - **PP**: Supply is still loose, and it is expected to be in a shock - weak state in the short term [16]. - **LLDPE**: Supply is increasing, demand improvement is limited, and it is expected to be in a shock - weak state [16]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be low in the medium - to - long term [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Prices are rising. The crop rating is declining, and the harvest rate is slightly lower than last year [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term supply is excessive, but the price center may rise in late September and October [18]. - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil supply is sufficient, and consumption support is limited. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the market is bullish. Palm oil demand is weakening, and production concerns exist [19]. - **Corn**: New - season prices are chaotic at the beginning, but the expected decline is limited. Futures are in a short - term correction, but the low - valuation support is strong [19][20]. - **Pigs**: The supply in September is increasing, and the price rebound expectation is reduced. There may be an over - seasonal pressure on prices from October to November [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US plans to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope, increasing short - term tariff risks. The market is preparing for the Fed's rate cut this week, leading to a weaker dollar and rising global risk appetite. Domestically, China's consumption, investment, and industrial增加值 in August were lower than previous values and market expectations, with slowing domestic demand. The Ministry of Finance will advance the issuance of part of the new local government debt quota for 2026 and take multiple measures to resolve existing implicit debts. Short - term external risk uncertainty is reduced, and domestic easing expectations are enhanced, leading to an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short - term upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; in the commodity sector, black metals are short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious observation is needed; non - ferrous metals are short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious observation is required; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas, the US tariff risk increases, the dollar weakens, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, economic data is lower than expected, domestic demand slows, but policy expectations are positive, and domestic risk appetite also increases. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, and the short - term macro - drive is upward [3]. - Asset trends: the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, black metals are short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term oscillating strongly, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels [3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as small metals, precious metals, and military industry, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Domestic economic data is weak, but policy expectations are positive, and risk appetite increases. The trading logic focuses on policies and easing expectations, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets continued to rebound on Monday, but trading volume was low. Macroeconomic data in August was weak, increasing anti - involution expectations. Real - world demand is weak, with different trends among varieties. Supply has shown some changes, and the steel market is likely to oscillate in the short term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly on Monday. Iron - making water production increased, and supply is at a high level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly on Monday. Supply is increasing slightly, and the market is in a state of game. The prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash was strong on Monday. Supply is increasing, and the pattern of over - supply remains. Demand is weak, and it should be treated with a medium - to - long - term bearish view, while being vigilant about short - term positive impacts [6]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass was strong on Monday. Supply is stable, and demand has limited growth. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroeconomic factors lead to a weaker dollar and a rise in copper prices. However, considering the global economic slowdown and weakening domestic demand, the upward space is limited [8]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices oscillated on Monday. Inventory increased unexpectedly, and the mid - term upward space is limited, with slow de - stocking expected [8]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: Supply is affected by short - term factors, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Monday. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the market is expected to oscillate and stabilize [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Monday. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell slightly on Monday. With rumors of storage and capacity reduction, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is weighing measures to restrict Russian oil and supply - surplus expectations. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the expected Fed rate cut provide short - term support for oil prices [12]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt rebounded with the rise in oil prices. The upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the follow - up with oil prices [13]. - **PX**: The price of PX rebounded slightly. It is in a tight pattern and is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rebounded slightly. Downstream and terminal开工 rates have different recovery situations, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol sector heated up slightly, but inventory increased, and downstream demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber adjusted slightly. Terminal orders increased seasonally, but the upward space is limited, and it can be shorted on rallies in the medium term [14]. - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is rising. However, there are some supporting factors, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **PP**: Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved, but supply is still loose. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **LLDPE**: Supply increased, and demand improved slightly. With low inventory and a weak market sentiment, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is expected to increase. Demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, but short - term support may come from downstream replenishment [16][17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans declined slightly. Export inspection data was better than expected, and Brazilian drought may support the market [18]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand situation is surplus. The supply pressure of soybean meal is large, and the price is expected to improve in late September and October. Rapeseed meal has high inventory, but there is an upward basis in the later period [19]. - **Oils and Fats**: The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and consumption support is limited. The supply of rapeseed oil decreased. The production of palm oil in Malaysia is affected by floods, and domestic demand is weakening, with increasing inventory [20][21]. - **Corn**: The initial listing price of new - season corn is chaotic, with a slight year - on - year increase. The price is expected to be strong, and the futures price has low - valuation support [21]. - **Pigs**: The planned slaughter of large - scale pig farms increased in September, demand has no obvious increase, and the price rebound expectation is reduced. There may be pressure on the price from October to November, which may promote capacity reduction [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The economic data in August generally continued to decline and fell short of expectations, with economic growth continuing to slow down. The overall domestic demand economic data in August continued to slow down, with investment continuing to slow down and slightly lower than market expectations, consumption growth slightly declining and lower than market expectations, and industrial production slowing down in the short term. The short - term investment side continued to slow down, and the domestic commodity demand as a whole slowed down and was lower than market expectations. The supply side also slowed down due to factors such as domestic demand slowdown and anti - involution. The short - term domestic commodity supply - demand side showed a state of weak demand and relatively abundant supply, which weakened the support for the prices of domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodities. The data announced this time continued to slow down and were lower than market expectations, which was short - term negative for the domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodity market. In the medium and long term, with the implementation of more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, as well as the promotion of the "anti - involution" work, it was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, the higher - than - expected US tariffs might lead to a slowdown in global growth expectations, but the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut supported the prices of external - demand - oriented commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy [3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Production - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises nationwide was 5.2%, lower than the expected 5.7% and the previous value of 5.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. Mainly due to strong external demand, but also affected by domestic anti - involution and environmental protection production restrictions, the operating rate of industrial enterprises declined, and the industrial production growth rate decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. By major categories, in August, the added value of the mining industry increased by 5.1% year - on - year, the manufacturing industry increased by 5.7%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 2.4%. In the second half of the year, as the US replenishment demand gradually weakened, the overall industrial production growth rate in China might decline but was expected to remain at a relatively high level [3][4]. Domestic Consumption - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.9% and the previous value of 3.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. This was mainly due to the slowdown in the subsidy intensity of the consumer goods trade - in policy. Currently, the effect of the consumer goods trade - in policy has weakened, and the retail sales of commodities in categories such as household appliances and audio - visual equipment, furniture, automobiles, and sports and entertainment products by units above the designated size have slowed down, but service consumption has rebounded. In the later stage, with the continuous implementation and effectiveness of domestic consumption stimulus policies and the recovery of residents' wealth effect, domestic consumption will pick up [4]. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to August, fixed - asset investment was 0.4%, far lower than the expected 1.4% and a significant drop of 1.1% from the previous value of 1.6%. Among them, the growth rate of manufacturing investment continued to decline, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down significantly in the short term, and real estate investment remained weak [4]. Real Estate - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 19.9%, with the decline expanding by 2.9 percentage points from the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of the commercial housing sales area was - 11%, with the decline expanding by 2.6 percentage points from the previous value, and the year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales was - 14.8%, with the decline expanding by 0.7 percentage points from the previous value. This was mainly due to the high - base effect formed by the "5.17 real estate new policy" last year and the weakening of the effect of real estate policy stimulus. The real estate market continued to recover slowly, and the real estate prosperity remained low and had slowed down for five consecutive months. However, with the slowdown of the real estate market, more incremental real estate policies were expected to be introduced [4]. Infrastructure Investment - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 5.9%, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points from the previous value of - 5.1%. Although the issuance speed of special bonds accelerated, due to the influence of high - temperature and rainy weather and poor fund arrival, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline [4]. Manufacturing Investment - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.3%, with the decline expanding by 1 percentage point from the previous value of - 0.3%. It slowed down significantly due to the high base effect last year and domestic anti - involution. Currently, high - tech industries maintained a high - growth level, and the large - scale equipment renewal policy continued to take effect, which provided strong support for manufacturing investment. In the future, on the one hand, with the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy and the exit of backward production capacity, manufacturing enterprise profits were expected to gradually bottom out and recover, and the willingness of enterprises to make capital expenditures might increase; on the other hand, the possible slowdown of the US replenishment demand in the second half of the year would weaken the short - term driving force for manufacturing investment [5]. Impact on Bulk Commodities - In the short term, the domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodity market was negatively affected as the data continued to slow down and were lower than market expectations. In the medium and long term, with the implementation of more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, as well as the promotion of the "anti - involution" work, it was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, the higher - than - expected US tariffs might lead to a slowdown in global growth expectations, but the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut supported the prices of external - demand - oriented commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy [3][6].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Short-term geopolitical conflicts have escalated again, leading to a rise in global risk aversion. The domestic market sentiment is improving due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased easing expectations. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short-term upward macro-driving force [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index is oscillating as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, increasing global risk aversion. Domestically, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance will pre - issue part of the 2026 local government debt quota and take measures to resolve implicit debt. Short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased, and domestic easing expectations have increased, leading to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; the commodity sector shows different trends: black is short - term oscillating, short - term cautious observation; non - ferrous is short - term oscillating strongly, short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, cautious observation; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, cautious long positions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, liquor, and banking sectors. Fundamentally, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected, and external demand still strongly drives the economy. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance's policies and the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations have led to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to relevant events, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volume. There are rumors of policy intensification. Fundamentally, demand is still weak, but there are differences among varieties. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons month - on - month, while rebar decreased by 40,000 tons. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar reached a three - year high. Supply - wise, hot - rolled coil production increased by 109,000 tons month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to continue rising. The steel market is likely to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore spot prices rebounded slightly last Friday, and the futures price continued to oscillate. Daily iron - water production rose above 2.4 million tons again last week, but the market expects limited upward space under low - profit conditions. Supply - wise, global iron ore shipments decreased by 8 million tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 720,000 tons. The news of a smelter addition at Simandou pushed up ore prices, but Rio Tinto's focus is on the first - batch shipments, so the event may not last long. Iron ore port inventories continued to rise slightly. Iron ore prices should be treated with a range - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly last Friday. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore spot prices are firm. UMK's October 2025 manganese ore quotation to China shows a price reduction. Inner Mongolia's factory production is stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity in some common - silicon factories in October. Ningxia's production is stable, some southern factories are in losses, and Yunnan and Guangxi's production changes little. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon - iron profits are compressed, electricity - cost support exists, and manufacturers' inventory pressure is acceptable, so the production reduction intention is weak, and the production decline space is limited. Market games continue [6][7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main soda - ash contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, supply increased week - on - week, and the supply pressure exists in the new - capacity release cycle, with an unchanged oversupply pattern. New devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and high supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, mainly driven by rigid demand, but downstream demand support is weak, and the terminal demand support has not changed significantly, with limited demand growth space. The decline in coal prices also had a negative impact. Soda ash still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. A medium - to - long - term bearish view is recommended, but beware of short - term bullish impacts from policies and news and manage positions well [7]. - **Glass**: The main glass contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, glass production was stable, with little week - on - week change. Although it is the peak season, demand growth is limited. The overall glass supply is stable, and demand is difficult to increase significantly. The overall fundamental pattern is loose, but policy sentiment fluctuates. Short - term range oscillation is expected [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the US non - farm annual benchmark was significantly revised downward, and the CPI data was in line with expectations but still high. The market believes that inflation not exceeding expectations has no impact on the Fed's later interest - rate cuts, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to rise, the US dollar declines slightly, and the non - ferrous sector rises. Technically, the LME copper price shows a bullish trend. However, the upward space is cautiously viewed as the global economy is still slowing, and domestic demand is weakening marginally [9]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose significantly last Friday. Besides the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rise in copper prices, the decline in social inventory, the market's belief in the arrival of the inventory inflection point and subsequent de - stocking, and the significant increase in LME aluminum warehouse withdrawal applications for two consecutive days all boosted aluminum prices. Technically, the pressure level is at 21,300 yuan/ton. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and although de - stocking is expected later, the speed and amplitude are slow [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants are short of raw materials, leading to rising production costs. Additionally, it is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost - side support, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upward space is limited due to weak demand [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped by 20.63% to 28.48%, a new low this year, mainly affected by the maintenance of some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and the tightness of the ore end. However, the actual impact is expected to be short - term, and the operating rate will recover after maintenance. With the issuance of mining licenses, the ore end will become looser, and a large amount of Burmese tin ore will be produced after November. On the demand side, terminal demand is still weak. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and in the emerging field of photovoltaics, the pre - installation has overdrawn later - stage installation demand, with the new photovoltaic installation increasing marginally weaker in the past two months, low photovoltaic glass operating rate, and declining photovoltaic solder strip operating rate. The year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicles has also declined. Although the operating rate has dropped significantly, the inventory increased by 108 tons to 9,389 tons this week. As tin prices rise again, downstream procurement slows down, only maintaining rigid - demand procurement. In summary, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by maintenance and peak - season expectations, and boosted by the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but the upward space is still under pressure [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of September 11, the weekly lithium - carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.8% month - on - month increase, and the weekly operating rate was 49.19%. The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a 5.9% week - on - week decline. A meeting on the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine by Yichun CATL was held last week, but the resumption time is undetermined. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, the peak - season demand is strong, social inventory is slightly de - stocking, and smelter inventory is transferred downstream. The fundamentals are improving marginally, but supply - side pressure still exists. The market is expected to oscillate and stabilize, with limited downward space [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly production is 96,229 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. The number of open furnaces is 311, with an increase of 7 in Xinjiang and no change in other regions. The latest social inventory is 539,000 tons, remaining at a high level. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory is 249,900 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. Although the weekly production is at a high level, no inventory accumulation occurred during the wet season. Benefiting from the anti - involution policy, it follows polysilicon in the short term. The China Silicon Industry Conference was held in Baotou last week, and policy disturbances should be noted [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are rising slightly. The total output of silicon - wafer sample enterprises in August was 53.6 GW, and the operating rate was 57.44%, showing an increase. The latest weekly inventory is 278,500 tons, with a marginal increase of 250 tons. The latest warehouse receipts are 7,820 lots, a week - on - week increase of 950 lots. There were news of stockpiling and capacity reduction for polysilicon last week, with strong short - term policy expectations. Polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is advisable to go long on dips [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: After the release of OPEC and IEA reports, there is an expectation of a slight increase in OPEC production in the long term, and the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. However, short - term low - level buying in the spot window has recovered to some extent, and the near - end structure has stabilized, so the probability of a sharp short - term decline in oil prices is still low. Additionally, recent geopolitical risks are frequent, and the supply of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may face channel problems later, providing support at the key lower level. Oil prices will continue to oscillate recently [14]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rebounded slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Wait for the rhythm of demand decline later, and the upward space will be limited. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and currently, social inventory has not shown obvious de - stocking, and factory inventory has only slightly decreased. Profits have recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When asphalt inventory continues to de - stock limitedly, pay attention to the extent of following the rise of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The main contract continues to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector. The slight positive impact from the low previous operating rate and increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has slightly decreased to 233 US dollars recently, the PX outer - market price remains at 832 US dollars, the short - term processing fee of PTA is significantly squeezed, and PX is still in a tight situation. It will oscillate recently, waiting for the change of PTA devices later [15]. - **PTA**: The downstream operating rate has recovered to 91.6%, but the terminal operating rate recovery is limited, the loom operating rate has not increased significantly, remaining at 66%, and downstream inventory continues to increase slightly. The upward space for PTA prices is limited. However, the impact of low processing fees is gradually emerging, with some devices increasing maintenance plans, and other maintenance devices may postpone restarting. The basis has basically remained at 01 - 60 recently, providing support below. When crude - oil prices are stable in the short term, PTA is difficult to have a trending market and will mainly oscillate [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has slightly decreased to 459,000 tons. The Yulong device may be put into operation soon, and the market has fully priced in this. The main - contract price has declined significantly. In addition, downstream operating rates are still restricted by low terminal orders, export orders are still low, and the space for further Christmas - order issuance is limited. Coupled with the gradual return of imports to normal levels, ethylene glycol is likely to continue to oscillate weakly recently [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector, and the price declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, the short - fiber operating rate has rebounded slightly, and short - fiber inventory has accumulated to a limited extent. Further de - stocking depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in the operating rate. Currently, the subsequent upward space may be limited. Short - fiber can be shorted on rallies in the medium term following the polyester end [17]. - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is still increasing, and the current import arrivals remain high. Downstream device maintenance has led to weakening demand, and the overall inventory continues to rise, with high port pressure and inventory reaching a record high. However, port MTO devices plan to restart, the weekly import arrivals are expected to decrease, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season in the inland region is coming, providing support for methanol prices. It will oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [17]. - **PP**: Device production has decreased due to maintenance in the short term, downstream operating rates have increased, order situations have improved, and raw - material inventory has started to rise, indicating the start of peak - season stocking. However, seasonal supply increases and new - capacity releases still keep the supply loose, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Device restarts have increased supply, the operating rate of agricultural films has increased slowly, and recent orders have increased rapidly, showing improvement. The absolute inventory value is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. During the macro - policy vacuum period, market sentiment has declined, and oil prices have fallen. Plastics are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Urea**: Recently, some devices are planned to restart at the end of the month, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Currently, industrial demand is still weak and has recovered slowly after the parade; agricultural demand is sporadic, and the support of port - collection demand for prices is limited, and the emotional boost from Indian tenders is insufficient. If the price continues to fall and breaks the previous low, it may stimulate downstream replenishment. In the short term, the market depends on the release of rigid demand. After entering October, the contradiction between seasonal demand weakening and supply loosening will intensify. The expectation of tightened export policies has been mostly digested by the market. Coupled with new - capacity releases, urea prices will mainly decline at a low level in the medium - to - long - term, but unexpected macro - policy adjustments may provide low - level support or even a slight rebound [18][19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: In the September USDA supply - and - demand report, the US soybean yield was lowered, but the estimate was still slightly higher than expected, and the harvest area increased. The USDA raised the estimated ending inventory, and the report had a bearish impact. However, the market has not relaxed its concern about the pressure on yield caused by diseases and high temperatures at the end of the growing season. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives this week, and CBOT soybeans are stable and strong [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term domestic supply - and - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Oil mills have high soybean arrivals, high operating rates, and are urging提货. On the one hand, imported soybeans are continuously put into storage, and on the other hand, downstream inventories are high due to the previous fast - paced procurement, and the channel inventory formed by cross - regional shipping is gradually emerging, increasing market supply pressure. Although the soybean - meal market valuation is low, the short - term risk appetite of long - position holders is not high, and US soybeans lack directional guidance. It is expected that the supply - and - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and if the US soybean export expectation improves or the yield is further lowered, the bullish US soybean market is expected to raise the oscillation price center of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal still has high - inventory circulation pressure in the short term, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the far - month purchase volume is small. If the policy expectation remains unchanged, there is still a basis for upward

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of 2025, leading to a rise in global risk appetite. Domestic market sentiment and risk appetite are also increasing, with the trading logic focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations [2]. - Different commodity sectors have different outlooks: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may be slightly weaker; black metals, energy - chemicals, and glass are likely to oscillate; non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be slightly stronger; and agricultural products are affected by weather and supply - demand factors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Overseas: US August CPI reached a new high this year, and initial jobless claims soared. The market fully prices in three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a rise in global risk appetite [2]. - Domestic: China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. Short - term domestic market sentiment and risk appetite are on the rise [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may be slightly weaker; black metals may oscillate; non - ferrous metals may be slightly stronger; energy - chemicals may oscillate; precious metals may be strong at high levels [2]. Stock Index - Driven by semiconductor, AI, and consumer electronics sectors, the domestic stock market rose significantly. With improved fundamentals, increased policy expectations, and reduced external risks, short - term market sentiment is positive. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot market is weak, with low trading volume. Demand varies by product, with hot - rolled coil demand rising by 208,000 tons and rebar demand falling by 40,000 tons. Supply is increasing, and cost support is strengthening. The market is likely to oscillate in the short - term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices slightly declined. After the military parade, steel mills are resuming production, and iron ore supply has decreased. The market is expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is oscillating. Production in different regions has different trends, and the market is in a state of game [6]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and profits are declining. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is hard to increase significantly, and profits have slightly increased. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: CPI data meets expectations, and the interest - rate cut expectation is rising. Domestic demand will weaken marginally, and the short - term interest - rate cut expectation may support prices [8]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are rising, and inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is supported by the interest - rate cut expectation, and the medium - term upward space is limited [8][9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short - term [9]. - **Tin**: Supply is affected by maintenance and tight mines, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rose, and the market is expected to be weak and oscillating due to the possible resumption of a lithium mine [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price rose, and the market is expected to be slightly stronger due to the industry conference and high - level oscillation of polysilicon [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The price rose, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [11]. Energy - Chemicals - **Methanol**: Port spot prices are strong, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly due to supply pressure and potential demand improvement [12][13]. - **PP**: The market is in consolidation. Supply has reached a new high, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly with policy support [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is adjusted. Supply will increase after maintenance, and demand is slowly rising. The market is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Urea**: The market is weak. Supply is under pressure, and demand has some support. Prices are expected to decline further [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The area of drought - affected soybean - growing regions in the US has expanded, and the probability of La Nina in the fourth quarter has increased to 71%. The market is affected by expected yield and export adjustments [16]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Rapeseed meal has potential for upward movement [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of US soybean oil rose. Domestic oil prices are in narrow - range adjustment, and rapeseed oil has a strong sentiment of reluctant to sell [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rose slightly, but inventory is high, and export demand is weak [18]. - **Corn**: The new - season corn price is expected to increase slightly, and farmers may be reluctant to sell at low prices [18]. - **Pigs**: Pig prices have stabilized after a decline. The supply is expected to increase in September, and prices may be under pressure in October - November [19].

Report Date - September 11, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - US PPI significantly missed expectations, strengthening the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The global risk appetite has increased, and the short - term domestic market sentiment and risk preference in China have also risen. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a short - term upward macro - drive [2] - For different assets: stocks are short - term oscillating strongly, be cautious and go long; bonds are short - term high - level oscillating, be cautious and observe; for commodities, black is short - term oscillating, be cautious and observe; non - ferrous is short - term oscillating, be cautious and go long; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, be cautious and observe; precious metals are short - term high - level strongly oscillating, be cautious and go long [2] Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas: US August PPI annual rate was 2.6%, the lowest since June, leading the market to expect three rate cuts this year. The US dollar index showed resilience. Domestic: China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better. Core inflation rebounded, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption. The short - term domestic market sentiment and risk preference increased [2] - Asset performance: stocks are short - term oscillating strongly, bonds are short - term high - level oscillating, black commodities are short - term oscillating, non - ferrous are short - term oscillating, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, precious metals are short - term high - level strongly oscillating [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as oil and gas, film and television, and communication, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With improved consumption and increased policy expectations, the short - term macro - drive is upward, and it is recommended to be cautious and go long short - term [3] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures markets continued to be weak, with low trading volume. Demand weakened, inventories rose, and production slightly increased. The cost support increased, and the market is likely to oscillate in the short - term [4] - Iron ore: The spot and futures prices rebounded slightly. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 60%, and the supply decreased this week. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [4][5] - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: The spot prices were flat, and the futures prices oscillated. The manganese ore price was firm. The production of silicon iron had cost support, and the output decline space was limited [5] Chemicals - Soda ash: The supply increased, the demand was weak, and the profit decreased. It is in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6] - Glass: The supply was stable, the demand was hard to increase significantly, and the profit slightly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The interest rate cut expectation rose, but the domestic demand will weaken marginally, and the short - term rate cut expectation will support the price [7] - Aluminum: The price rose slightly, the inventory increased, and the demand in the peak season was poor. The medium - term upward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7] - Aluminum alloy: The waste aluminum supply is tight, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with limited upward space [8] - Tin: The supply side was affected by maintenance and tight mines, but it will ease. The demand was weak, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [8] - Lithium carbonate: The price fell, and the market was affected by the news of potential mine复产. It is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - Industrial silicon: The price rose, and the market was affected by the industry conference. It is expected to oscillate [9] - Polysilicon: The price fell, and the market faced the game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [10] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price continued to rise slightly [11] - Asphalt: The price rebounded with oil, and the upward space is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up with oil [12] - PX: The market is in a tight pattern, and it is expected to oscillate [12] - PTA: The price stopped falling with oil, but the upward space is limited [12] - Ethylene glycol: The price stabilized with raw materials, and it is expected to oscillate [13] - Short - fiber: The price adjusted with the polyester sector, and the upward space is limited [13] - Methanol: The supply - side pressure exists, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [14] - PP: The fundamental pressure is large, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [14] - LLDPE: The supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [15][16] - Urea: The supply is under pressure, and the price is expected to fall [16] Agricultural Products - US soybeans: The price fell, and the USDA may lower the yield and export forecasts [17] - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The domestic short - term supply exceeds demand, but rapeseed meal has an upward basis in the later stage [17] - Soybean and rapeseed oil: The CBOT soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market has a trend of supply - demand contraction in the fourth quarter, and the market is in a narrow adjustment [18] - Palm oil: The MPOB report was slightly bearish. The inventory was at a high level, but the export may be strong in the peak season [19] - Corn: The new - season corn in Northeast China is on the market in small quantities, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The price in North China is stable [20] - Pigs: The spot price rebounded weakly, and the supply and demand both increased in September. The price should not be overly pessimistic [20]

Group 1: Report Core View - In August, the year-on-year decline of CPI exceeded expectations, and the inflation remained low. The decline of PPI narrowed. In the short term, the price center of domestic demand - type commodities is expected to move up, and the decline of PPI will gradually narrow. With the implementation of policies, CPI is expected to gradually recover and rise [3][4][5]. Group 2: Specific Data Analysis CPI - In August, CPI year - on - year growth was - 0.4%, expected - 0.2%, previous value 0%; month - on - month 0%, expected 0.1%, previous value 0.4%. The inflation decline exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the high comparison base in the same period last year and the lower - than - seasonal increase in food prices this month [3]. - Food prices decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points compared with last month, pulling down CPI year - on - year by about 0.51 percentage points. Non - food prices rose by 0.5%, up 0.2% from last month, pulling up CPI year - on - year by 0.43% [3]. - Core CPI year - on - year increase continued to expand for the 4th month. This month, core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage point compared with last month [3]. - Service prices rose by 0.6% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage point compared with last month, affecting CPI year - on - year increase by about 0.23 percentage points [4]. PPI - In August, PPI year - on - year growth was - 2.9%, expected - 2.9%, previous value - 3.6%. The year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared with last month, the first narrowing since March this year [4]. - In the 2.9% year - on - year decline of PPI in August, the carry - over effect was about - 0.7 percentage points, and the new effect of price changes this year was about - 2.2 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Factors Affecting Prices CPI - The high comparison base in the same period last year and the lower - than - seasonal increase in food prices led to the year - on - year decline of CPI [3]. - The continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption led to the continuous expansion of the year - on - year increase of core CPI [3]. PPI - Domestically, the continuous optimization of the market competition order, the growth of new development drivers, and the increase in upgraded consumption demand led to the narrowing of the year - on - year decline of PPI [4]. - Internationally, OPEC+ production increase and the short - term easing of the Russia - Ukraine relationship led to the overall decline of the crude oil price center; the overall increase in overseas commodity demand and the weakening of the US dollar led to the overall rebound of non - ferrous prices [3][4]. Group 4: Future Price Trends - As China gradually enters the peak season of commodity consumption, the construction of real estate and infrastructure projects will speed up, and overseas demand is improving. The demand side will be strengthened in the short term. With the deepening of anti - involution in relevant domestic industries, the price center of domestic demand - type commodities is expected to move up [3][4]. - The decline of PPI will gradually narrow, and prices are expected to gradually stabilize with the continuous manifestation of policy effects [3][4][5]. - CPI is expected to gradually recover and rise as domestic demand policies are further strengthened and implemented, and the impact of the high base in the same period last year is gradually eliminated [3][4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, driven by steel mill复产 and the expectation of restocking before the National Day holiday, iron ore prices still have room for rebound, with the upside range between 830 - 850 (100 - 102 US dollars/ton). But the ultimate contradiction in the black industry chain needs to be resolved by a decline in hot metal production. In the context of the industrial chain's negative feedback, ore prices face significant downward pressure, and the expected trigger time may be between late October and early November [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Impact of News on West Africa's Simandou Iron Ore - The news that the Guinea government requires developers such as Rio Tinto and Baowu to build processing and smelting plants in Simandou caused iron ore price fluctuations. However, the news is unlikely to affect the commissioning and shipping process of Simandou Iron Mine as Rio Tinto's main task is to ensure the first shipment by the end of 2025 [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Logic for the Recent Strength of Iron Ore Prices - The proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 national steel mills is still over 60%. After the September 3rd military parade, steel mills are likely to resume production this week, and ore demand will recover [1]. - Steel mill iron ore inventories are at a low level, and there is an expectation of restocking before the October 1st holiday [1]. - Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 8 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly by 780,000 tons, causing an expectation of a phased supply contraction [1]. 3.3 Market Situation in September and October - September is a window period for iron ore price increases. Although steel mill profits have been significantly compressed, they are still in a profitable state, and the steel mill resumption process will continue. The logic of steel mills restocking raw materials before the October 1st holiday is also reasonable [4]. - In October, contradictions in the iron ore market will gradually accumulate. Against the background of weak steel demand and steel mill resumption, steel mill profits will be further compressed. Once in a continuous loss state, steel mills' willingness to actively reduce production will increase. In winter, there may be phased production restrictions in northern regions, and there may be negative feedback pressure [4][5]. 3.4 Historical Experience and Market Pressure - Before the start of winter storage each year, the steel market will have a process of finding the psychological winter storage price downward. If combined with low steel mill profits and industrial chain negative feedback, iron ore prices may face greater pressure [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the expected downward adjustment of 911,000 in US non - farm payrolls shows a cooling labor market, strengthening expectations of a Fed rate cut, with the US dollar index showing resilience and global risk appetite rising. Domestically, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. Short - term domestic market sentiment and risk appetite are rising, and the short - term macro upward drive is strengthening. Focus on Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies [2][3] - For assets, the stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and it is advisable to observe cautiously. In the commodity sector, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical products are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is advisable to observe cautiously. Precious metals are expected to be stronger at a high level in the short - term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US labor market is cooling, strengthening Fed rate - cut expectations. The US dollar index shows resilience, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, exports were lower than expected in August, but the trade surplus was better. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption. Short - term domestic market sentiment and risk appetite are rising, and the short - term macro upward drive is strengthening [2] - **Stock Index**: Affected by semiconductor, consumer electronics, and AI sectors, the domestic stock market declined slightly. With favorable policies and increased risk appetite, the short - term macro upward drive is strengthening. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short - term [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market continued to fluctuate on Tuesday. August export data exceeded expectations, but consumption data declined and inventory increased. Steel mills in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region are resuming production, and the cost support has strengthened. The steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range [4] - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, iron ore prices rebounded significantly. The proportion of profitable steel mills is about 60%, and northern steel mills will continue to resume production. Global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. The news of a smelter in Simandou drove up prices, but the event may not last long. Iron ore prices are expected to be stronger with fluctuations [4] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The silicon manganese spot market fluctuated, and the manganese ore price was firm. The production of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions had different performances. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] - **Soda Ash**: The main soda ash contract fluctuated weakly on Tuesday. Supply increased, demand was weak, and profit decreased. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [7] - **Glass**: The main glass contract fluctuated weakly on Tuesday. Supply increased slightly, demand was stable but difficult to improve significantly, and profit increased slightly. Glass is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Goldman Sachs believes the Fed doesn't need to cut rates quickly. Copper concentrate TC has risen slightly, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. Short - term rate - cut expectations may support prices, but the firm copper price is hard to sustain [8] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose slightly on Tuesday. Social inventory increased, and demand in the peak season was poor. LME aluminum inventory has rebounded. The medium - term upward space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The expected Fed rate cut in September may support prices [8] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering cost support, the price is expected to be stronger with fluctuations in the short - term, but the upward space is limited [9] - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 10.32% to 49.11%. Supply was affected by smelter maintenance and tight ore, but it will ease later. Demand was weak, and inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main lithium carbonate contract fell 2.62% on Tuesday. The news of the potential resumption of the Jiaxiaowo lithium mine affected market sentiment. It is expected to be weak and fluctuate [10] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main industrial silicon contract fell 1.58% on Tuesday. Polycrystalline silicon is oscillating at a high level, and industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [10] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main polycrystalline silicon contract fell 3.73% on Tuesday. There are rumors of state reserves and capacity reduction, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Israel's attack on Doha may affect the peace process and oil supply. The rise on Tuesday may not last. Ukraine's actions against Russian energy infrastructure also affect supply. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks [12] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices fluctuate with oil prices. The upside is limited as demand may decline. Pay attention to the inventory and the follow - up increase with oil prices [12][13] - **PX**: PX prices are stable with oil prices. It is in a tight supply situation, and the PXN spread has increased. It is expected to fluctuate and wait for changes in PTA plants [13] - **PTA**: Low processing fees lead to lower operating rates. Demand recovery is limited, and the basis has weakened. The upside is not high [13] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has increased. Supply pressure will return, but the polyester sector is stable, and the basis provides some support. It is expected to fluctuate [13] - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices have declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, but the upside is limited. It is advisable to go short on rallies in the medium - term [14] - **Methanol**: The port spot basis is stable. Supply pressure exists, but there are signs of improvement in supply - demand balance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [14] - **PP**: The market is consolidating. Supply has increased, and there is policy support. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [15] - **LLDPE**: LLDPE prices are adjusting. Supply pressure will increase after maintenance ends. Demand is slowly rising, and it is expected to fluctuate [15] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT November soybean contract fell 0.31%. Analysts expect the USDA to lower the US soybean yield forecast and may also lower export expectations [17] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains. Soybean meal has low valuation but low risk appetite. Rapeseed meal has high inventory pressure but may rise later due to low inventory and policy expectations [17] - **Palm Oil**: The import profit of domestic palm oil is more negative. The market expects Malaysia's August palm oil inventory to increase for the sixth consecutive month. However, exports are expected to be strong, and production decreased in early September. It is expected to fluctuate [18] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The cost of imported oilseeds is stable and strong, and the supply - demand will shrink in the fourth quarter. Soybean oil inventory is high, and the market is optimistic. Rapeseed oil has low inventory and strong hoarding sentiment [18] - **Corn**: New - season corn has been slightly listed in Northeast China, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. In North China, corn prices are stable, and inventory is tight. The futures market has rebounded, which is positive for the market [19] - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs has rebounded weakly. Farmers' selling intention is strong, but there is also a seasonal replenishment market in September. The pig price should not be overly pessimistic in September [19]

[Table_Report] 分析师 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 彭亚勇 从业资格证号：F03142221 投资咨询证号：Z0021750 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：pengyy@qh168.com.cn 2025年9月9日 研究 ...