Dong Hai Qi Huo

Search documents
股指期货周报:美国持续释放关税缓和信号,股指整体反弹-20250428
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 05:57
2025年4月28日 [Table_Title] 美国持续释放关税缓和信号,股指整体反弹 ——股指期货周报 [table_main] 投资要点: 行情走势:上周沪深 300 指数收于 3786.99 点,较前值上升 0.39%;累计成交 10914 亿元,日均成交 2183 亿元,较前值下降 147 亿元。两市融资融券余额 为 17916 亿元。表现较好的前五名行业分别是综合金融(6.07%)、汽车(4.94%)、 通信(3.16%)、电力设备及新能源(3.07%)、综合(2.77%);表现较差的前五名行 业分别是交通运输(-0.88%)、煤炭(-1.21%)、农林牧渔(-1.38%)、食品饮料(- 2.40%)、消费者服务(-3.70%)。 期现基差行情:IF、IH、IC、IM 当月合约基差分别为-12.19 点、-3.81 点、 -44.98 点、-54.50 点。前一周同期值分别为-6.82 点、-3.10 点、-5.81 点、 6.24 点。 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 宏 观 金 融 周 报 跨期价差行情:IF 合约次月-当月、当季-次季、次季-当季价差分别为-35.60 点 ...
关注关税进展,短期反弹
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 05:53
关注关税进展,短期反弹 东海期货沪锡周度分析 有色及新能源策略组 2025-4-28 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2011]1771号 彭亚勇 分析师: 从业资格证号:F03142221 投资咨询证号:Z0021750 电话:021-80128600-8628 邮箱:pengyy@qy.qh168.com.cn 观点总结 | 政治局会议有一些新的表述,要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策,用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适 宏观 度宽松的货币政策,加快专项债和特别国债等发行使用,但整体未超预期。关税方面,近期美国可能下 调对我国关税,但关税谈判将是一个漫长的过程。下周重点关注美国制造业PMI和非农数据。 | | --- | | 供应端,4月23日缅甸佤邦召开复产前座谈会,目前暂无进一步消息,但复产仍是大概率,云南江西两地 炼厂开工率下降至56.34%,依然处于低位,进口窗口小幅打开,3月锡锭进口量高位,预计4月进口量维 供应 | | 需求方面,关注AI概念、电子产品消费政策对实际需求带来的影响; 3月手机产计录得1.37亿台,同比增 需求 | | 长0.4%;计算机产量为3212万台, 同比上升7.8%;光电子器件产 ...
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250428
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 05:47
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite is rising as U.S. Treasury yields decline. In China, the economy started well in Q1, and the government will adopt more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Overseas: The U.S. President plans to set "fair" tariff prices, and a trade agreement is expected to be reached in three to four weeks. Market expectations of a缓和 in the Sino - U.S. trade war and speculation about the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The Q1 domestic economy was better than expected, and the industrial enterprise profits in March turned positive year - on - year. The Politburo meeting signaled more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the treasury bond may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the black commodity may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; the non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the energy and chemical products may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as precious metals, energy metals, and biomedicine. However, the good economic start in Q1 and the expected proactive macro - policies will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market was volatile last week. Gold reached a record high and then fell back. Uncertainty in tariff policies and the ambiguity of the Fed's interest - rate cut path have increased the volatility of precious metals. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver may follow gold passively and be weaker than gold. Key economic data in the U.S. need to be monitored next week [3][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel rebounded on Friday, but the apparent consumption of five major steel products declined, and the demand may have peaked. Although there are rumors of crude steel reduction, the steel output is still rising, and the short - term steel market may fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Friday. The iron - water output is high, but there are rumors of crude steel reduction, and the supply of iron ore may increase in the second quarter. It is advisable to view the short - term iron ore market as a range - bound one and pay attention to the peak of iron - water output [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the supply is declining. The short - term prices of ferroalloys may fluctuate within a range [7][8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price will remain in a narrow - range shock in the short term. Although there is support from current demand and inventory reduction, the increase in supply may put pressure on the price if demand weakens later [9]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term driving factors come from the macro - environment and crude oil. The asphalt supply is at a low level, and the demand has been slightly boosted before May Day. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [9]. - **PX**: After the stabilization of crude oil prices, the PX price rebounded. It will maintain a tight - balance state and may test the pressure level, showing a volatile pattern [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up is high, but the terminal start - up is declining. The short - term price may rebound slightly but is limited by downstream conditions and will mainly fluctuate [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The obvious inventory - reduction time of ethylene glycol will be postponed, and it will maintain a weak - shock pattern [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: The demand is weak, and the short - fiber will maintain a weak - level shock [12]. - **Methanol**: The supply is less than expected, and the demand has led to inventory decline before the festival. The short - term price will repair in a shock, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. - **PP**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of PP is not prominent, but there may be a negative demand feedback in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the maintenance progress [12]. - **LLDPE**: The PE downstream is basically stable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly before the festival, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Politburo meeting proposed more proactive macro - policies, and the U.S. may lower tariffs on China. The supply of copper is at a high level, and the demand is in the peak season with declining inventory. The short - term market sentiment may be boosted, but the medium - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Aluminum**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the demand is strong with declining inventory. It is advisable to take partial profits on previous long positions [14]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term price may rebound, but the rebound height is limited due to macro risks and the news of production resumption in Wa State [14]. Agricultural Products - **U.S. Soybeans**: The net long positions of U.S. soybean funds are increasing. Weather conditions in the U.S. soybean - producing areas need to be monitored, and the price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall at the beginning of sowing [15]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot basis of domestic soybean meal has declined, and the short - term decline space of the 09 contract may be limited. It is advisable to reduce the short - position risk exposure [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil - mill start - up is low, and the soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly. The rapeseed oil is in the off - season with high inventory and weak basis [16][17]. - **Palm Oil**: If the U.S. biofuel policy is favorable, the palm oil demand is expected to be stable. The production of Malaysian palm oil is increasing, and the price may fluctuate within a range and be relatively strong [17]. - **Pigs**: The market is mainly trading seasonal trends. The spot price may be under pressure before May Day, and the futures may be dominated by risk - aversion sentiment and decline [17]. - **Corn**: Drought in Henan has led to a strong rebound in the corn price. The upper limit of the price range is restricted by weak demand and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by low inventory in production areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. There is a possibility of the C05 contract declining to narrow the basis [18].
政策信号错综复杂,黄金价格大幅震荡
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 05:46
东海贵金属周度策略 东海期货研究所宏观策略组 2025-04-28 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 政策信号错综复杂,黄金价格大幅震荡 从业资格证号:F0256916 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-80128600-8631 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 联系人: 郭泽洋 从业资格证号:F03136719 电话:021-80128600-8618 邮箱:guozy@qh168.com.cn 分析师: 黄金:观点总结&操作建议 | 货币属性 | 本周美元指数呈现剧烈震荡走势,周初因特朗普施压美联储降息并质疑其政策独 立性,市场恐慌情绪加剧拖累美指跌至97.923新低。随后特朗普态度转向缓和, | | --- | --- | | | 明确无意解雇鲍威尔并释放贸易摩擦缓和信号,美元指数于周三反弹至99.86。周 | | | 五美元指数微涨0.07%并实现三周来首次周度上行,市场对美联储独立性担忧与政 | | | 策预期差的反复博弈,但美元中长期信用受损及流动性虹吸效应仍令其上行承压。 | | 金融属性 | 周初特朗普炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔加剧市场对货币政策政治 ...
研究所晨会观点精萃:美联储官员释放降息信号,全球风险偏好继续升温-20250425
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 02:58
行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 【宏观】 海外方面,美媒称美国考虑对华关税分级方案,美国总统坚称美中正在 进行贸易谈判,此前中国称双方未进行任何经贸谈判,市场暂时预期美国关税将 低于预期;而且美联储官员表示若经济数据明朗,或在 6 月降息,推动降息预期 升温;受此影响,美元和美债收益率短期走弱,全球风险偏好继续升温。国内方 面,中国央行 4 月 MLF 续做规模 6000 亿远超到期量,为政府债发行高峰护航; 而且国内政策支持力度加强以及美国释放同中国贸易缓和信号,短期对国内市场 风险偏好形成较强的支撑。资产上:股指短期震荡反弹,短期谨慎做多。国债短 期高位震荡,谨慎做多。商品板块来看,黑色短期偏弱震荡,短期谨慎观望;有 色短期震荡反弹,短期谨慎做多;能化短期震荡,谨慎做多;贵金属短期高位震 荡,谨慎做多。 【股指】 在 PEEK 材料、电力以及银行等板块的支撑下,国内股市小幅上涨。基 本面上,中国央行 4 月 MLF 续做规模 6000 亿远超到期量,为政府债发行高峰 护航;而且国内政策支持力度加强以及美国释放同中国贸易缓和信号,短期对 国内市场风险偏 ...
东海期货研究所晨会观点精萃-20250424
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-24 05:51
观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号:F0256916 投资咨询证号:Z0000671 电话:021-80128600-8632 邮箱:jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-80128600-8631 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号:F3033924 投资咨询证号:Z0013026 电话:021-80128600-8621 邮箱:Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号:F03091165 投资咨询证号:Z0019876 联系电话:021-80128600-8630 邮箱:liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号:F03089928 投资咨询证号:Z0019740 电话:021-80128600-8622 邮箱:wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021-80128600-8616 邮箱:fengb@qh168.com.cn 2025年4月24日 研究所晨会观点精萃 贾利军 宏观金融 ...
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250424
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-24 03:49
行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号:F0256916 投资咨询证号:Z0000671 电话:021-80128600-8632 邮箱:jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-80128600-8631 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号:F3033924 投资咨询证号:Z0013026 电话:021-80128600-8621 邮箱:Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号:F03091165 投资咨询证号:Z0019876 联系电话:021-80128600-8630 邮箱:liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号:F03089928 投资咨询证号:Z0019740 电话:021-80128600-8622 邮箱:wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021-80128600-8616 邮箱:feng ...
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250423
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 03:08
2025年4月23日 研究所晨会观点精萃 行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号:F0256916 投资咨询证号:Z0000671 电话:021-80128600-8632 邮箱:jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-80128600-8631 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号:F3033924 投资咨询证号:Z0013026 电话:021-80128600-8621 邮箱:Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号:F03091165 投资咨询证号:Z0019876 联系电话:021-80128600-8630 邮箱:liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号:F03089928 投资咨询证号:Z0019740 电话:021-80128600-8622 邮箱:wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021- ...
宏观策略周报:美国关税政策有所放松,全球风险偏好整体升温-20250421
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 06:19
投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 14 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 东 海 研 究 2025年4月21日 美国关税政策有所放松,全球风险偏好 [Table_Title] 整体升温 ——宏观策略周报 [table_main] 投资要点: 宏 观 金 融 周 报 明道雨 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号: Z0018827 电话:021-880128600-8631 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 宏 观 分析师: [Table_Report] ➢ 国内方面:经济方面,2025年一季度GDP同比增长5.4%,预期5.1%,前值5.4%,大幅高于 市场预期;主要由于消费增长加快、基建投资加速、制造业投资保持高速增长,而且抢 出口效应导致净出口远超预期,一季度经济增速保持强劲且高于市场预期,经济增长开 局良好。虽然美国对中国加征关税持续升级,但美国批准对从中国进口的智能手机和电 脑免征关税,提振了全球和国内风险偏好;而且国家将根据形势需要及时推出新的增量 政策,短期对国内市场风险偏好形成较强的支撑,国内风险偏好整体 ...
股指期货周报:美国关税政策有所松动,股指延续反弹-20250421
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 06:02
投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 宏 观 金 融 周 报 2025年4月21日 [Table_Title] 美国关税政策有所松动,股指延续反弹 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-80128600-8631 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点: 行情走势:上周沪深 300 指数收于 3772.52 点,较前值上升 1.00%;累计成交 11650 亿元,日均成交 2330 亿元,较前值下降 1979 亿元。两市融资融券余额 为 17937 亿元。表现较好的前五名行业分别是银行(4.49%)、综合(3.46%)、房 地产(2.92%)、电子元器件(2.87%)、石油石化(1.93%);表现较差的前五名行业 分别是医药(-0.09%)、交通运输(-0.26%)、国防军工(-1.47%)、消费者服务(- 2.13%)、农林牧渔(-5.07%)。 期现基差行情:IF、IH、IC、IM 当月合约基差分别为-8.12 点、-5.24 点、 -8.52 点、-5.29 点。前一周同期值分别为-22.92 点、-14. ...