分[析Ta师ble_Report] 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Powell's slightly dovish stance on interest - rate cuts and the uncertainty of US trade agreements have affected the global risk appetite; domestically, the increase in the manufacturing PMI in June and consumption - stimulating policies have improved the domestic market sentiment. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. - The domestic stock market is rising, driven by factors such as the improvement of economic data and policy stimulus. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and short - term cautious buying is recommended [3]. - Gold prices are supported by factors such as the US tax and spending bill and Powell's dovish stance. The market expects two interest rate cuts this year starting from September. Gold is expected to be strong in the short term [4]. - Due to the weakening of the US dollar, non - ferrous metals are showing a strong - oscillating trend. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [5]. - The oil price will continue to oscillate due to the game between summer demand and OPEC+ production increase prospects. Different energy - chemical products have different price trends based on their own supply - demand and cost factors [9]. - International crude oil premium and US biodiesel policy利好 are exhausted, and domestic oils and fats are under short - term pressure. Different agricultural products have different price trends based on their own supply - demand situations [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: Powell's statement is slightly dovish, but the labor market demand is better than expected. The US trade agreement is uncertain, and the global risk preference has cooled down. - Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in June is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Consumption - stimulating policies have improved the domestic market sentiment. - Asset Suggestions: Stocks are expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious buying; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; commodities in different sectors have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market continues to rise, supported by sectors such as CSSC, biomedicine, and semiconductors. - Fundamental factors include the improvement of economic data and policy stimulus. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and short - term cautious buying is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices rose on Tuesday. The US tax and spending bill and Powell's dovish stance support the gold price. The market expects two interest rate cuts this year starting from September. Gold is expected to be strong in the short term, and subsequent employment data should be focused on [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: US officials are seeking to reach a trade agreement by July 9. The supply is high, demand may weaken, and the inventory growth has slowed down. The price may fall in the future, and the negotiation results and tariff policies should be focused on. - Aluminum: The aluminum price rose due to the increase in copper prices. The LME inventory is increasing, and the domestic inventory has reached the inflection point of destocking. The warehouse receipts are decreasing. - Aluminum Alloy: It is in the off - season of demand, but the tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term with limited upside. - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but will be restricted in the medium term. - Carbonate Lithium: The supply is relatively loose, and one should wait for the opportunity after the rebound meets resistance. - Industrial Silicon: The price fell sharply, and the supply is unstable. It is expected to be in a weak - oscillating state, and one should observe. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are loose, and it is recommended to short on rallies [5][6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The short - term oil price will continue to oscillate due to the game between summer demand and OPEC+ production increase prospects. - Asphalt: The price is oscillating strongly, following the oil price. The inventory is being destocked, and the situation in the peak - demand season should be focused on. - PX: The cost support is strong, but the downstream demand feedback is negative. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly. - PTA: The short - term basis has fallen, the demand is low, and the price may fall slightly later. - Ethylene Glycol: The price center has fallen, and the inventory at the port has decreased. The price will oscillate. - Short - Fiber: The inventory is being destocked slowly, and the price will oscillate weakly following the cost. - Methanol: The price is oscillating, affected by factors such as inventory and supply. The operation of Iranian devices should be focused on. - PP: The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the increase in production and weak demand. - LLDPE: The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the increase in production and weak demand in the off - season [9][10][12]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The short - term CBOT soybeans may have weather - related premium support due to less rainfall and higher temperatures in the main production areas in the next two weeks. - Bean and Rapeseed Meal: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the basis is expected to be weak. The stable price of US soybeans provides some support. - Bean and Rapeseed Oil: The supply of soybean oil is loose, and it may be under pressure following related oils and fats. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to improve, and the high inventory at the port is being digested. - Palm Oil: The domestic inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to continue to weaken due to the exhaustion of利好 factors. - Corn: The spot price is strong, while the futures price is weak. After the seasonal substitution of wheat for feed consumption, the corn price is likely to rise. - Pig: The spot price has rebounded due to the reduction of group - farm slaughter at the end of the month. The supply is expected to increase in July, and the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [14][15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global trade negotiations have made progress, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. However, short - term market sentiment in China has declined, and domestic risk has cooled [2]. - For asset classes, the stock index is expected to experience short - term volatile corrections, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds are in short - term high - level oscillations, and cautious observation is advised. In the commodity sector, black commodities are in short - term low - level volatile rebounds, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term volatile and strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term volatile, and cautious observation is advised; precious metals are in short - term high - level oscillations, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: In May, US consumer spending unexpectedly decreased by 0.1%, lower than the market - expected increase of 0.1%. Inflation rose moderately, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the US dollar was generally weak. Global trade negotiations progress led to an increase in US consumer confidence and a decrease in the enthusiasm for safe - haven assets [2]. - Domestic: Six departments including the central bank jointly issued a guidance on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, and the Ministry of Commerce organized a new energy vehicle consumption season. Consumption policy stimulus has increased, which is helpful for boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term. However, short - term domestic market sentiment has declined [2][3]. - Asset operations: For stocks, short - term cautious long positions; for treasury bonds, cautious observation; for commodities, different sectors have different operations as mentioned above [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to fall due to the drag of sectors such as banking, insurance, oil and gas exploration, and digital currency. Policy stimulus is beneficial in the short term, but market sentiment has declined. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Recently, precious metals have corrected from high levels. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran weakened the safe - haven sentiment, and weak US economic data led to a decline in gold prices. Although the PCE price index slightly exceeded expectations, the safe - haven property still provides support. In the short term, gold is expected to be volatile and weak [4]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: As the 90 - day tariff suspension deadline approaches, the White House may extend it. Fed officials' statements and Trump's possible appointment of the Fed chair have increased the rate - cut expectation, and the US dollar has declined. Fundamentally, production is high, demand may weaken, and inventory growth has slowed. Wait for the right time to short [5]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the aluminum price has continued to rise slightly. LME inventory increased last Friday, and the domestic aluminum inventory drawdown may have reached an inflection point [5]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It has entered the off - season, and manufacturing orders are weak. Tight scrap aluminum supply supports the price, and it is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term with limited upside [5]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and the operating rate has rebounded but is still low. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but there are medium - term constraints [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Macro sentiment has boosted the price, and it is short - term strong and volatile. Fundamentals are loose, and opportunities after the rebound meets resistance can be awaited [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There are four short - term positive factors, and it is volatile and strong. Short - term long positions can be considered, or wait for opportunities after the rebound [7]. - **Polysilicon**: It is short - term strong and volatile due to industrial silicon production cuts. Fundamentals are loose, and short positions on rebounds are recommended [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium has been withdrawn, and the market focus has returned to supply and demand. The OPEC+ meeting's August production decision will be crucial, and the market generally expects a continued increase of 411,000 barrels per day. The price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [9]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are low, and asphalt prices are strong and volatile. Shipments have improved, and inventory drawdown is good. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [10]. - **PX**: Cost support is strong in the short term, but oil price declines bring uncertainties. It is expected to be strong and volatile following crude oil [10]. - **PTA**: The basis remains high, but downstream demand is expected to be low for a long time. The upward price space is limited [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the decline in oil prices, the price center has dropped, and it is expected to be volatile [10]. - **Short - fiber**: The price has followed the decline in crude oil prices. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium term [11]. - **Methanol**: There are negative factors such as increased inland arrivals and port inventory accumulation, but there is also support from inland maintenance in July. It is volatile and strong [12]. - **PP**: Production has increased slightly, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [13]. - **LLDPE**: Production has increased, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [14]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The weather in the main growing areas is favorable for crop growth, and there is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. The USDA report in late June may have a negative impact. Policy changes before July need attention [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve in the 09 - contract cycle. Rapeseed meal is dominated by soybean meal [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: For rapeseed oil, import news eases supply concerns, but high port inventory increases risks. For soybean oil, supply is loose, and the inventory is seasonally recovering but still at a low level [16]. - **Palm Oil**: The positive factors are exhausted, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to increased domestic inventory [17][18]. - **Corn**: The spot market is strong, but the futures market is affected by rumors. After the seasonal wheat substitution, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply is expected to increase in July, and demand is weak in the off - season. However, the flexibility of slaughter weight increases price resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [18].

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资咨询证号：Z0022217 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：lizy@qh168.com.cn 彭亚勇 从业资格证号：F03 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the US President's announcement of talks with Iran eases risk aversion, and the market expects the Fed to resume its rate - cut cycle, weakening the short - term US dollar index and increasing global risk appetite. Domestically, policies to support consumption and a relaxation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index rebounds in the short - term, treasury bonds are volatile at a high level, and different commodity sectors show different short - term trends [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as finance, military, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market rises. With policy stimulus and a reduction in geopolitical risks, the short - term trading strategy is to cautiously go long [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: They are volatile at a high level in the short - term, and the recommended strategy is to cautiously wait and see [3]. Precious Metals - After Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire, the safe - haven demand for precious metals weakened. Hawkish remarks from Powell and the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, along with a deterioration in US consumer confidence, have put short - term pressure on precious metals [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel decline slightly. Demand continues to weaken, but supply is unlikely to decrease significantly due to expanding profits. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore decline slightly. With rising iron - water production and inventory replenishment by steel mills, and high supply expectations, the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices are flat. Demand is okay in the short - term, but supply may increase. With potential supply disruptions in manganese mines, the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and prices may decline if oil prices fall [8]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: It oscillates strongly. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. - **Glass**: It also oscillates strongly. Supply is for just - in - time production, demand is weak, and profits are low. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Due to difficulties in US - EU trade negotiations and potential tariffs, along with high production and potential demand weakening, the short - term trend is uncertain, and future negotiations and tariff policies need to be monitored [10]. - **Aluminum**: With eased geopolitical tensions, the price rises. However, inventory accumulation may signal a turning point, and demand may weaken in the future [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, weak demand is offset by tight scrap aluminum supply, so the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with limited upside [11]. - **Tin**: The price rises due to slow mine复产 in Myanmar and tight domestic supply. Despite being in the off - season with weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but with limited upside [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rebounds and oscillates. Supply increases while demand weakens, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term and go short in the medium - term [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It moves sideways. With weak supply and demand and a rebound in coal prices, the recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term and go short in the medium - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: It remains weak. With limited room for a decline in supply and downward pressure on demand, the supply - demand contradiction may intensify if the photovoltaic industry cuts production [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's pressure on Iran and a decline in EIA inventory keep the oil price oscillating in the short - term [15]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the oil price and oscillates. With improved shipping but increasing inventory, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [15]. - **PX**: It has strong cost support but faces a risk of decline. It will follow the oil price and oscillate weakly in the short - term [15]. - **PTA**: The basis remains strong, demand is weakening, and there is downward pressure in the short - term [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: With stable overseas production and low basis, the short - term de - stocking drive is low, and it will run weakly and stably [16]. - **Short - fiber**: It will follow the decline in the oil price and oscillate weakly in the medium - term, with high inventory and weak demand [16]. - **Methanol**: The price may decline in the short - term but is expected to oscillate strongly due to potential supply shortages [16]. - **PP**: With increasing production and weakening downstream demand, the price is expected to decline [17]. - **LLDPE**: With stable production and demand and falling oil prices, the price is expected to weaken and fluctuate strongly in the short - term [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price falls due to the impact of soybean oil and crude oil, and favorable weather in the US Midwest may further pressure the price [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply - demand situation is gradually easing, and the price may decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to weather, policies, and import supply [18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The previous rally may reverse due to falling crude oil prices and changes in palm oil supply and demand [18]. - **Corn**: With changes in inventory and market supply, the price may consolidate at a high level in the short - term [18]. - **Hogs**: The market has a low expectation for price increases in July, and the price may decline in the short - term, with continued selling pressure on the LH09 contract [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed can wait to cut interest rates, and the cease - fire between Israel and Iran reduced global risk aversion. The US dollar index weakened in the short - term, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically, China's consumption growth was strong in May, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the dovish policy statements of Fed officials supported domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short - term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds may fluctuate at a high level, and cautious waiting is advised; for the commodity sector, black metals may fluctuate at a low level, and cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals may have intensified fluctuations, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals may fluctuate at a high level, and cautious waiting is advised [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Powell's statement and the Israel - Iran cease - fire led to a weaker US dollar index and increased global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic situation and external factors supported domestic risk appetite. For assets, different investment suggestions were given for stock indices, treasury bonds, and various commodity sectors [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as batteries, humanoid robots, and automobiles, the domestic stock market continued to rise. China's economic situation, the easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions, and Fed officials' dovish statements supported domestic risk appetite. The market's trading logic focused on multiple factors, and short - term cautious long positions were recommended [3]. Precious Metals - The Israel - Iran cease - fire reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals, causing prices to decline. The Fed's stance and economic data influenced the market. With the easing of the Middle East conflict, precious metals were under short - term pressure [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - On Tuesday, steel prices slightly declined, and trading volume was low. The easing of the Middle East situation and falling oil prices affected the market. Although demand was not significantly worse and inventory was decreasing, supply increased, and the market was expected to bottom - out and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore prices declined. Iron ore supply was expected to remain high in the second - quarter peak season, and short - term prices were expected to fluctuate within a range, with a possible mid - term decline [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Tuesday, the prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were stable. The demand for ferroalloys was okay in the short - term. With production changes in different regions, the overall alloy output had little change. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range, and prices might decline if oil prices weakened [7][8]. Soda Ash - On Tuesday, soda ash prices were weakly fluctuating. Supply was increasing but at a slower pace, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and inventory was increasing. Prices were expected to be under pressure and fluctuate within a range in the short - term [8]. Glass - On Tuesday, glass prices were strongly fluctuating. Supply and demand were both weak, and the market was expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [9]. Non - Ferrous and New Energy Copper - Fed officials' stance changes affected the market. Copper production was high, demand had a marginal weakening risk, and inventory growth had slowed. The high price difference between COMEX and LME affected imports. Future market trends depended on US negotiations and tariff policies [10]. Aluminum - The easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation led to a decline in aluminum prices. Inventory accumulation indicated a possible turning point, and demand had a marginal weakening risk [11]. Aluminum Alloy - Entering the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Prices were expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with limited upside [11]. Tin - Supply was tight, and the start - up rate decreased slightly. Demand was in the off - season, and orders declined. Prices were expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with limited upside due to various factors [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The weighted contract of lithium carbonate rebounded, but supply increased while demand weakened, and inventory was high. Short - term waiting and mid - term short - positions were recommended [12]. Industrial Silicon - The market was in a sideways trend. Supply and demand were both weak, and prices were slightly affected by coal prices. Short - term waiting and mid - term short - positions were recommended [13]. Polysilicon - The market was weak. Supply was at a low level, and demand pressure was increasing. If the photovoltaic industry increased production cuts in the third quarter, the supply - demand contradiction would intensify [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Trump's statements and the cease - fire agreement made the market focus on potential supply surpluses, and oil prices were expected to remain weakly fluctuating [14]. Asphalt - Oil price declines led to lower asphalt prices. Although inventory removal was slow, demand was approaching the peak season. It was expected to follow crude oil and fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [14]. PX - Crude oil price drops led to PX price declines, but the downward space was limited. Tight supply was expected to continue, and it would follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly in the short - term [15]. PTA - The PTA basis remained stable, but crude oil price changes might lead to downstream contradictions. With high polyester开工, inventory pressure was increasing, and prices might face upward pressure later [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Crude oil price drops and reduced supply risks affected ethylene glycol. Inventory removal slowed down, and prices were expected to be suppressed in the short - term [15]. Short - Fiber - Crude oil price drops led to short - fiber price declines. It followed the polyester sector and was expected to fluctuate strongly. With high inventory, it would wait for the peak - season demand [16]. Methanol - The methanol market declined, but supply shortages and profit repairs limited the downward space. It was expected to fluctuate strongly within a range in the short - term [17]. PP - PP prices declined. With increasing production and weakening demand, prices were expected to fall, and the development of the Israel - Iran conflict should be monitored [17]. LLDPE - Polyethylene prices adjusted. With stable production and demand, and the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the market was expected to weaken and fluctuate strongly in the short - term [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - CBOT soybeans declined due to the influence of soybean oil and crude oil. Favorable weather in the US Midwest was expected [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The high - opening rate of oil mills led to a gradually looser supply - demand situation for soybean meal. The market sentiment was weakly fluctuating, and the domestic basis was expected to remain unchanged [18]. Palm Oil - No detailed content provided for palm oil analysis. Live Hogs - The expected low pig prices until August - September might lead to continuous selling pressure for the LH09 contract [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term cautious long [2][3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] - **Black Metals**: Short - term low - level oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term oscillation with a strong bias, cautious long [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term increased volatility, cautious wait - and - see [2] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] 2. Core Views - Overseas, the weakening of the US dollar index and the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East have led to an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, the strong consumption growth in May and the easing of geopolitical tensions and dovish Fed statements have supported domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, Fed Chair Powell is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and the cease - fire between Israel and Iran has reduced global risk aversion, weakening the US dollar index and increasing global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in May is stable, with strong consumption but slowdown in investment and industrial production, which helps boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Equity Index**: Driven by sectors such as batteries, humanoid robots, and automobiles, the domestic stock market continues to rise. With strong consumption, stable economic growth, and supportive factors, short - term cautious long. Focus on geopolitical risks, trade negotiations, and domestic policies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The cease - fire between Iran and Israel has reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Powell's statement and the Fed's stance have affected the market. The deterioration of US consumer confidence and the easing of the Middle East conflict have put short - term pressure on precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Tuesday, steel prices slightly declined, and trading volume was low. The easing of the Middle East situation and falling oil prices have affected the market. Although demand is not significantly deteriorated and inventory is falling, supply is increasing, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, iron ore prices declined. With the recovery of pig iron production and steel mill replenishment, and the increase in supply and inventory, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may decline in the medium term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, prices were flat. The demand for ferroalloys is okay in the short term. The production in Yunnan may increase, and the overall alloy production has little change. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and may decline if oil prices fall [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Tuesday, soda ash prices oscillated weakly. Supply is increasing but at a slower pace, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Glass**: On Tuesday, glass prices oscillated strongly. Supply is stable at a low level, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate industry, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: Fed officials' dovish statements have an impact. Fundamentally, production is high, demand may weaken, and inventory growth has slowed. The high price difference between COMEX and LME has affected imports. Wait for the right time to short. Pay attention to trade negotiations and tariff policies [10]. - **Aluminum**: The easing of the Middle East situation has led to a decline in aluminum prices. There is significant inventory accumulation, and demand may weaken in the future [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, demand is weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supports prices. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term with limited upside [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited by various factors [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weighted contract rebounded, but there are unverified market rumors. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term short - allocation [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices are affected by coal prices. Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term short - allocation [13]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply is at a low level with limited further decline, and demand is weak. If the photovoltaic industry increases production cuts, the supply - demand contradiction will intensify [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's stance on the cease - fire and oil exports has affected the market. The market will focus on potential supply surplus later this year, and oil prices will remain weakly oscillating [14]. - **Asphalt**: Oil price decline has led to a fall in asphalt prices. Although inventory is being depleted, the price increase is limited. It will follow the high - level fluctuation of crude oil in the short term [14][15]. - **PX**: Crude oil decline has led to a decline in PX prices, but the downward space may be limited. Demand is increasing, and the tight supply pattern will continue. It will follow the weak oscillation of crude oil [15]. - **PTA**: The basis remains stable, but the decline in crude oil may lead to downstream contradictions. With high polyester inventory, there may be production cuts in the future [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of supply - side impacts will continue to suppress prices, with short - term increased volatility [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Crude oil price decline will lead to a decline in short - fiber prices. It will follow the polyester sector and oscillate strongly. Wait for the peak - season demand to deplete inventory [16]. - **Methanol**: The price has declined, but due to potential supply shortages and improved profits, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17]. - **PP**: The futures price has declined. With increasing production and weakening downstream demand, the price is expected to fall. Pay attention to the development of the conflict [17]. - **LLDPE**: The price has adjusted. With stable supply and demand and the decline in oil prices, the price is expected to continue to weaken with increased short - term volatility [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT soybeans declined, affected by soybean oil and crude oil. The weather in the US Midwest is favorable for crop growth [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The high - level operation of oil mills has made the supply - demand of soybean meal gradually loose. The market sentiment is weak, and the basis is expected to remain unchanged [18]. - **Palm Oil**: Not enough information provided in the given text. - **Live Hogs**: The expected high - point of pig prices from August to September may not be high, and there will be selling pressure on the LH09 contract [20].

Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has declined, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. In China, economic growth is generally stable, with strong consumption growth in May but a slowdown in investment and industrial production, which also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. Group 2: Asset Recommendations - Stock indices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short - term, with a recommendation of cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds are expected to remain at a high level and oscillate, with a suggestion of cautious observation. For commodities, black metals are in short - term low - level oscillation (cautious observation), non - ferrous metals are oscillating strongly (cautious short - term long positions), energy and chemicals are experiencing increased volatility (cautious observation), and precious metals are at a high - level oscillation (cautious observation) [2]. Group 3: Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as digital currency, energy metals, and port shipping, the domestic stock market has risen. The short - term market trading logic focuses on Middle East geopolitical risks, changes in US trade policies, and trade negotiation progress. With the decline in short - term Middle East geopolitical risks, the impact on the market has weakened. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Precious Metals - On Monday, the precious metals market oscillated upward. Geopolitical conflicts and the Fed's hawkish stance have an impact on precious metals. The market is currently focused on the Middle East situation, and the attitude of Iran should be closely monitored [3]. Group 5: Black Metals Steel - With demand at a low level, the spot and futures prices of steel continue to oscillate. The real - world demand for steel still has resilience, but the market's outlook is pessimistic. Supply is expected to remain high in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore slightly declined, while the futures price rebounded. Short - term demand is okay, but the supply is expected to remain high in the second quarter. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron remained flat on Monday. Short - term demand is okay, but downstream procurement is weak. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and short - term rebound opportunities can be considered if energy prices continue to strengthen [6]. Group 6: Chemicals Soda Ash - On Monday, soda ash oscillated. Supply remains abundant, demand has contracted, and inventory has increased. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate within a range [7]. Glass - On Monday, glass was weakly oscillating. Supply is mainly for rigid demand, and demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. Group 7: Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US Federal Reserve's June interest - rate meeting was more hawkish. The production of copper is at a high level, and demand may decline marginally. The price is expected to oscillate, and the negotiation results between the US and other countries and the US's copper tariff policy should be monitored [8]. Aluminum - Central funds of 138 billion yuan will be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. Aluminum prices are rising, mainly driven by the external market. Downstream demand may weaken, and the inventory situation should be monitored [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It has entered the off - season for demand, but the tight supply of scrap aluminum provides some support for the price. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weakening demand [10]. Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Iran's attack on a US airbase did not target energy infrastructure, and the probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices [11]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices will follow the decline in oil prices. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the inventory is being depleted. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [11]. PX - The cost support for PX is strong in the short - term, but the decline in oil prices brings uncertainties. PX prices may face a callback risk and will continue to oscillate strongly following crude oil [11]. PTA - The basis of PTA remains at a high level. The upstream - downstream contradiction is significant, and the inventory is accumulating. The decline in oil prices will severely impact the futures price [12][13]. Ethylene Glycol - The probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, and the impact on device shutdowns has weakened. The inventory depletion has slowed down, and the price may experience a larger callback following the decline in oil prices [13]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices will drive down short - fiber prices. It will continue to oscillate strongly following the polyester sector, but the terminal orders are average [13]. Methanol - Methanol prices have squeezed downstream profits, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term due to the possible end of geopolitical conflicts [13]. PP - The production of PP is increasing, and downstream开工 has slightly declined. The price is expected to fall with the decline in oil prices [13]. LLDPE - The device production has not increased significantly, and downstream demand has not changed much. The futures price is expected to continue to weaken, with increased short - term volatility [13]. Group 9: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined. Favorable weather in the US Midwest is expected to benefit crop growth [14]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in Chinese oil mills has increased. The supply - demand of soybean meal is gradually becoming more balanced, and the rapeseed meal market is dominated by the soybean meal market [15]. Oils and Fats - The decline in geopolitical risks in the Middle East has led to a decline in the premium of international oils and fats. The inventory of palm oil and soybean oil in China has increased [15][16]. Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast has risen, but the supply from the Northeast to North China has increased, and the price in North China has decreased. The start of wheat procurement and the possible increase in old - corn sales may lead to a high - level consolidation of corn prices [16]. Hogs - The weight - reduction efforts of pig - raising groups are limited. The spot price in the benchmark area is stable, and the futures price is expected to be repaired. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with possible stronger fluctuations [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intensification of the Middle - East tension has led to a decline in global risk appetite. In China, economic growth in May was generally stable, but short - term risk preferences were affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish statement. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the Iranian parliament approved closing the Strait of Hormuz. Global risk aversion increased, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite declined. Domestic: China's May consumption grew strongly, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, but the short - term risk preferences were affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish statement. For assets, the stock index will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the national debt will fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, the black metals will fluctuate at a low level, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals will fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy and chemicals will have increased volatility, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals will fluctuate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [3]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as oil and gas development, short - drama games, and precious metals. The fundamentals showed that China's May consumption grew strongly, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The short - term risk preferences were affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish statement. The market focused on the Middle - East risk, US trade policies, and trade negotiations. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - Last week, the precious metals market had a high - level oscillating correction. The Fed's June meeting maintained the interest rate and made hawkish remarks. The Israel - Iran conflict escalated, and the US military directly attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it may impact the global capital market [4]. Black Metals Steel - Last Friday, the domestic steel futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and the trading volume remained low. The "national subsidy" for home appliances continued. The Fed's hawkish signal and the rebound of the US dollar index suppressed commodity prices. The demand had some resilience, the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 16.08 tons week - on - week, and the inventory continued to decline. The supply increased by 9.68 tons week - on - week, mainly contributed by building materials. The steel market will mainly oscillate at the bottom in the short term [5][6]. Iron Ore - Last Friday, the iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. The daily output of molten iron increased slightly, and the steel mills' profits were still good. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 157 tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased by 224 tons week - on - week. The port inventory decreased by 101 tons. The short - term fundamentals were strong, but the rebound of coking coal prices had a certain inhibitory effect. The iron ore price will mainly oscillate in a range in the short term [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Last Friday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat. The demand for ferroalloys was okay in the short term. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron in different regions were stable. The supply of silicon manganese in the south was low, and the cost was inverted. The supply of silicon iron might increase. The market will mainly oscillate in a range in the short term, and if energy prices continue to strengthen, short - term rebound opportunities can be concerned [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The Fed's June meeting was more hawkish. The central government will allocate 138 billion yuan in the third and fourth quarters. The copper production is at a high level, the demand has a marginal weakening risk, and the inventory growth has slowed down. The high price difference between COMEX and LME has stimulated copper to flow into the US, overdrawing future import demand. It is necessary to wait for the right time to short, and pay attention to the negotiation results and tariff policies [8]. Aluminum - 138 billion yuan of central funds will be allocated in the third and fourth quarters. The aluminum price increased mainly due to the external market. The downstream demand has a weakening risk, the inventory reduction of aluminum ingots has slowed down, and the inventory of aluminum rods has increased. The "trade - in" policy has some uncertainties [8]. Aluminum Alloy - It has entered the off - season of demand, and the manufacturing orders have grown weakly. However, the tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the price. The price will oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9][10]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, the processing fee is low, and the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 46.84%. The demand is in the off - season, and the orders have decreased. The price will oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is under pressure [10]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. If Iran retaliates, the geopolitical situation will be at high risk, and the oil price will rise. The short - term fundamentals have limited influence, and the seasonal inventory reduction supports the price. It is advisable to wait and see the geopolitical development [11]. Asphalt - The oil price oscillates at a high level, and the asphalt price has a slight upward breakthrough. The shipment has improved, the factory inventory is decreasing, but the spot price lags behind. It will follow the oil price to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [11]. PX - The upstream cost has increased due to the geopolitical risk, and the demand has increased due to the slight increase in PTA's operation rate. The tight supply situation will continue, and it will follow the oil price to oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The oil price drives up the absolute price, and the port inventory is low. The downstream will cut production, and the 6 - month contract will release some pressure. It will follow the oil price to rise [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The impact of Iranian facilities is expected in August, and the domestic and foreign facilities' operation rates may recover. The inventory reduction has slowed down, and the follow - up increase may be limited [12]. Short - fiber - The oil price increase drives up the polyester price, and the short - fiber will follow the polyester sector to oscillate strongly. The terminal orders are average, the inventory is high, and it will follow the polyester price to rise [12]. Methanol - The supply may decrease significantly, and the upward driving force is strong. But the continuous price increase squeezes the downstream profit, and there is a risk of MTO/MTP shutdown [12]. PP - The production is increasing, the downstream operation rate has decreased slightly, and the oil price increase drives up the PP price. It is necessary to pay attention to the Israel - Iran conflict [13]. LLDPE - The device production has not increased significantly, the downstream demand has little change, and the oil - based cost support is strengthening. The market sentiment has improved, and the price will continue to strengthen with increased short - term fluctuations [13]. Urea - The supply is high, the agricultural demand has not increased significantly, and the compound fertilizer operation rate has decreased. Although the port collection demand is planned to increase, the fundamentals are weak. But the geopolitical conflict drives up the price, and the downward space is limited [13]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The rainfall in the production area has alleviated the drought. The EPA's RVO policy for 2026 - 2027 is expected to increase the demand for soybean oil. The 2025/26 US soybeans are expected to have low inventory, and the fund's net long - position holdings are increasing [14]. Corn - The arrival volume of Shandong's deep - processing enterprises is low, and the purchase price supports the Northeast corn. The wheat substitution and the release of old corn may lead to a high - level consolidation of corn in the short term [15]. Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - The oil mills' high - operation rate makes the soybean meal supply and demand loose, and the domestic basis is expected to be stable. The rapeseed meal market is dominated by the soybean meal market. It is necessary to pay attention to the China - Canada trade policy [16]. Oils and Fats - The international oils and fats have a market premium due to the energy - related risk. The short - term long - market situation will continue, but the external market changes have a direct impact, and the risk is high. It is advisable to participate cautiously [16]. Live Pigs - The group's weight - reduction efforts are small, the benchmark - area spot market is stable, and the slaughter volume has decreased in the off - season. The pig price in the benchmark area is stable, and the futures price is expected to be repaired. The range - bound market will be stable but may have stronger fluctuations [17].