Dong Hai Qi Huo

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盘面驱动有限,价格震荡
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 05:55
盘面驱动有限,价格震荡 东海甲醇聚烯烃周度策略 东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-4-21 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师: 冯冰 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021-80128600-8618 邮箱:fengbf@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号:F3089928 投资咨询证号: Z0018740 电话:021-80128600-8622 邮箱:wangyl@qh168.com.cn 联系人: 甲醇:意外检修支撑价格 | 国产供应 | 国内甲醇装置产能利用率87.37%,环比-0.56%;久泰托县200、内蒙古宝丰一期280装置检 修,内蒙古新奥60、陕西精益26装置计划重启,下周甲醇产量预期减少。 | | --- | --- | | 进口 | 国际甲醇装置开工79.27%,环比上周微幅增加,同比略低1个点。4月11日至4月17日, 总进口量在17.6万吨,下周期到港预计在17.8万吨,进口依然较少。 | | 需求 | 甲醇制烯烃行业产能利用率83.90%,环比-3.62%。受华东MTO企业停车、降负以及西北 MTO企业停车 ...
关税或缓和叠加伊核谈判,油价短期反弹
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 05:35
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2011]1771号 关税或缓和叠加伊核谈判,油价短期反弹 东海原油沥青周度策略 东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-4-21 分析师: 分析师: 王亦路 从业资格证号:F03089928 投资咨询证号:Z0019740 电话:021-80128600-8622 邮箱:wangyil@qh168.com 冯冰 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021-80128600-8616 邮箱:fengb@qh168.com 主要内容 原油:宏观及地缘借力良好供需短期反弹,长期看空不改 01 沥青:短期供需两弱持续,跟随原油小幅反弹 02 现货尚可,结构重回高位 供需水平目前尚可, 月差本周明显回升, 现货结构恢复至1月 末以来最强水平,且 贴水基本保持良好, 与前期预期逻辑劈叉 明显。 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 23/04 23/07 23/10 24/01 24/04 24/07 24/10 25/01 25/04 Brent 3月月差 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.0 ...
关税地缘同步升温,黄金价格再创历史新高
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 05:34
关税地缘同步升温,黄金价格再创历史新高 东海贵金属周度策略 东海期货研究所宏观策略组 2025-04-21 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 从业资格证号:F0256916 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-80128600-8631 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 联系人: 郭泽洋 从业资格证号:F03136719 电话:021-80128600-8618 邮箱:guozy@qh168.com.cn 分析师: 黄金:观点总结&操作建议 | | 美元指数本周呈现震荡格局,市场持续消化特朗普关税政策对经济的多重冲击, 加剧美元抛售压力。美国初请失业金人数下降显示劳动力市场韧性,美元指数从 | | --- | --- | | 货币属性 | 技术超卖区域获得回补动能。尽管鲍威尔多次淡化降息预期,但市场仍计价美联 | | | 储或被迫在滞胀压力下转向宽松。短期美元或维持低位震荡,关税政策实际经济 | | | 冲击与美联储政策宽松路径的博弈将成为核心定价变量。 | | | 美联储政策路径陷入多方博弈僵局,尽管内部鹰派基调仍占主导,但政治施压与通 | | 金融属性 | 胀 ...
宏观偏暖,短期反弹
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 05:29
宏观偏暖,短期反弹 东海期货沪锡周度分析 有色及新能源策略组 2025-4-21 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2011]1771号 彭亚勇 分析师: 从业资格证号:F03142221 投资咨询证号:Z0021750 电话:021-80128600-8628 邮箱:pengyy@qy.qh168.com.cn 观点总结 | 宏观 | 特朗普态度有所软化,表示中美一直在接触,并且不会再加关税,甚至可能降低关税,有助于提升市场 风险偏好;另外,国内政策进一步加码预期强烈,国务院常委会也给予支持,在合适时机出台政策,目 前市场预期月底降准降息。 | | --- | --- | | | 供应端,刚果金锡精矿分阶段恢复运营,4月1日缅甸佤邦曼相矿区复产会议推迟,目前暂无消息,云南江 西两地炼厂开工率较上周小幅回升至56.96%,但依然处于低位,进口亏损大幅缩窄,进口窗口小幅打开。 | | 供应 | | | | 需求方面,关注AI概念、电子产品消费政策对实际需求带来的影响; 3月手机产计录得1.37亿台,同比增 | | 需求 | 长0.4%;计算机产量为3212万台, 同比上升7.8%;光电子器件产量录得1639亿只, 同 ...
政策预期偏强,钢材期现货市场延续震荡
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 05:06
政策预期偏强,钢材期现货市场延续震荡 东海黑色金属周度策略 东海期货研究所黑色策略组 2025-04-21 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2011]1771号 刘慧峰 从业资格证号:F3033924 投资咨询证号:Z0013026 电话:021-80128600-8621 邮箱:liuhf@qh168.com.cn 联系人: 武冰心 从业资格证号:F03118003 电话:021-80128600-8619 邮箱:wubx@qh168.com.cn 分析师: 黑色策略 | 品种 | 钢材 | 铁矿石 | | --- | --- | --- | | 观点 | 区间震荡 | 区间震荡 | | 逻辑 | 本周钢材需求继续好转,且未来1-2周仍有回升 | 本周铁水产量小幅回落,不过近期钢厂利润尚可,钢材 | | | 空间,但中期看已经接近顶部,5月份之后料回 | 需求也在旺季之中,铁水产量仍有回升空间。但中期看 | | | 落。钢厂利润短期尚可,生产积极性不减,供应 | 已经接近顶部区域。供应方面,本周主流矿发运小幅回 | | | 处于相对高位。短期市场在走利润压缩逻辑。目 | 落,且按照季节性因素来看,未来几周发运量 ...
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250421
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 03:33
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty of the US economy has increased, and the US dollar has continued to decline. The global risk appetite has generally increased, while the Chinese economy has shown signs of accelerated recovery, and policy support expectations have strengthened, providing strong support for the short - term risk appetite of the domestic market [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to have a short - term volatile rebound; bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term; commodities show different trends in different sectors, with black metals being weakly volatile, non - ferrous metals having a volatile rebound, energy and chemicals having a volatile rebound, and precious metals rising [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US President's threat to dismiss the Fed Chairman has increased the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy. Due to tariff issues, the economic uncertainty has increased, and the US dollar index has continued to decline [2]. - Domestic: China's GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The State Council's executive meeting indicated an increase in counter - cyclical adjustment to support employment and foreign trade, strengthening policy support expectations [2]. Stock Index - Affected by the hotel, tourism, food processing, and agricultural sectors, the domestic stock market declined slightly. However, strong economic data, policy support, and the US President's softened attitude towards tariffs provided support for the domestic market, suggesting short - term cautious long positions [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs. The US government's credit damage, geopolitical risks, and the Fed Chairman's hawkish stance have supported the strong performance of gold. Silver may follow gold in high - level oscillations but faces greater downward pressure [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets continued to decline slightly, with low trading volumes. Policy expectations have increased. Demand has improved, but the "buy - on - rising" mentality and the seasonal transition have led to differentiated trading. Supply is at a high level, and short - term steel markets are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices declined slightly. Iron - water production remained high, and supply is expected to increase further. Short - term policy expectations support prices, but a long - term bearish view is held if steel demand remains weak [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices were flat. Demand was fair, and supply showed different trends. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5][6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices have rebounded in the short term but are expected to be bearish in the long term due to the expected increase in OPEC supply [8]. - **Asphalt**: It has stabilized slightly following oil prices. The market shows regional differences, and its fundamentals mainly follow oil price fluctuations [8]. - **PX**: It has rebounded with oil prices but remains in a weak oscillation pattern due to weak supply and demand [8]. - **PTA**: It maintains a weak oscillation pattern due to limited improvement in terminal orders and increased downstream inventory pressure [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It continues to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak supply - demand conditions [10][11]. - **Short - fiber**: It remains in a low - level oscillation, with limited export volume and weak domestic demand [11]. - **Methanol**: The 05 contract oscillates, while the 09 contract may present short - selling opportunities after a rebound [11]. - **PP**: It is expected to have an oscillatory recovery due to reduced supply pressure [11]. - **LLDPE**: The near - month contract is supported by low inventory, while the 09 contract faces medium - to - long - term pressure [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by strong demand and policy expectations, copper prices are expected to continue their oscillatory rebound [12]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic fundamentals are good, with significant inventory reduction. It has short - term rebound potential but is bearish in the medium term [12][13]. - **Tin**: Supply is gradually recovering but remains at a low level, and demand is differentiated. Tin prices are expected to rebound in the short term [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Low domestic inventory and potential planting delays support the price. The market's concern about the export supply chain has decreased [14]. - **Soybean Meal**: The recovery of domestic oil - mill operations is slow. The futures are supported, and the monthly spread is expected to be repaired [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is in the peak demand season, but the supply risk premium has decreased. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [14]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of soybean oil is decreasing, while rapeseed oil faces high - inventory pressure and is at risk of a price decline [15]. - **Palm Oil**: Domestic inventory is low, and the price is affected by cost and international market conditions [16].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250415
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-15 06:07
2025年4月15日 研究所晨会观点精萃 行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 点 精 萃 从业资格证号:F0256916 投资咨询证号:Z0000671 电话:021-80128600-8632 邮箱:jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-80128600-8631 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号:F3033924 投资咨询证号:Z0013026 电话:021-80128600-8621 邮箱:Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号:F03091165 投资咨询证号:Z0019876 联系电话:021-80128600-8630 邮箱:liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号:F03089928 投资咨询证号:Z0019740 电话:021-80128600-8622 邮箱:wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021- ...
关税反复但需求担忧不变,油价保持偏弱高波运行
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-14 11:19
关税反复但需求担忧不变,油价保持偏弱高波运行 东海原油沥青周度策略 东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-4-14 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师: 分析师: 从业资格证号:F03089928 投资咨询证号:Z0019740 电话:021-80128600-8622 邮箱:wangyil@qh168.com 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021-80128600-8616 邮箱:fengb@qh168.com 王亦路 冯冰 主要内容 原油:关税担忧持续,油价偏弱高波运行 01 沥青:成本塌陷持续,需求低位运行 02 结构继续保持低温 Brent 3月月差 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 23/04 23/07 23/10 24/01 24/04 24/07 24/10 25/01 25/04 Brent即期价差 -0.30 -0.10 0.10 0.30 0.50 0.70 0.90 18/12 20/12 22/12 24/12 数据来源:钢联,东海期货研究所 Oman 3月月差 -2 ...
油价持续保持低位,出口订单部分陷入停滞
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-14 09:25
东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-4-14 油价持续保持低位,出口订单部分陷入停滞 东海原油聚酯周度策略 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师: 从业资格证号:F03089928 投资咨询证号:Z0019740 电话:021-80128600-8622 邮箱:wangyil@qh168.com 分析师: 冯冰 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021-80128600-8616 邮箱:fengb@qh168.com 王亦路 主要内容 Brent 3月月差 | | 原油 | 聚酯 | | --- | --- | --- | | 观点 | 长期中枢下移,短期反弹 关税反复后油价小幅回升,但市场对后期贸易战引起的 | 短期低位震荡 终端订单受到关税影响,对美国订单前期停滞,近期部分重 | | | 需求萎缩担忧仍在,油价短期仍偏弱。但近期美伊谈判 | 启,但新订单情况仍然极差。下游有部分低价投机性囤库, | | | 或导致 伊朗制裁风险再起,阶段性供应减量可能使得 | 但终端开工持续下行,下游开工仍然偏高,库存难以去化, | | | 价格短期波动继续放大,反弹 ...
东海甲醇聚烯烃周度策略:基本面支撑,价格修复-20250414
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-04-14 09:01
基本面支撑,价格修复 东海甲醇聚烯烃周度策略 东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-4-14 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师: 冯冰 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021-80128600-8618 邮箱:fengbf@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号:F3089928 投资咨询证号: Z0018740 电话:021-80128600-8622 邮箱:wangyl@qh168.com.cn 联系人: 甲醇:震荡修复 | 国产供应 | 国内甲醇装置产能利用率88.24%,环比+3.57%;内蒙古宝丰280万吨/年装置投产,内蒙古 | | --- | --- | | | 荣信90装置计划重启,陕西精益26装置短停检修,西北能源30装置计划检修,下周甲醇产 | | | 量继续增加。 | | 进口 | 国际甲醇装置开工79.20%,伊朗地区开工目前增至八成附近。4月4日至4月10日,总进 | | | 口量在17.58万吨,下周期到港预计在18.1万吨,进口依然较少。 | | 需求 | MTO/MTP开工小幅提升,内蒙古宝丰2# 100万吨/ ...