商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 李卓雅 【贵金属】黄金市场周四小幅回撤，沪金主力合约跌至 784 元/克一线，白银波动 加剧回落至 8814 一线。美联储维持鹰派表达，上调失业率预测同时降低经济预 期，鲍威尔多次强调对于通胀的担忧。 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 宏观金融：美联储维持利率不变，全球风险偏好整体降温 明道雨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Stocks**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long - position [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious observation [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term low - level oscillation, short - term cautious observation [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious observation [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term volatility intensifies, cautious long - position [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - biased oscillation, cautious long - position [3] 2. Core Views - The global risk preference has cooled overall due to the weakening US economic data and the intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Israel's attack on Iran. In China, the economic growth is generally stable, but the short - term Middle East geopolitical situation has affected market sentiment [3][4] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions based on the current economic and geopolitical situation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Overseas**: US May retail sales were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was supported by steady wage growth. The weakening economic data and geopolitical tensions made investors nervous, the US dollar rebounded after a decline, and the global risk preference cooled [3] - **Domestic**: China's May consumption grew strongly, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, which helped boost domestic risk preference in the short term, but the Middle East situation dampened it [3][4] - **Assets**: Stocks oscillate in the short term, cautiously long - position; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level, observe cautiously; black metals oscillate at a low level, observe cautiously; non - ferrous metals oscillate, observe cautiously; energy and chemicals have intensified volatility, cautiously long - position; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level, cautiously long - position [3] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, game, film and television, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The economic fundamentals are stable, but the Middle East situation impacts market sentiment. The market focuses on Middle East risks, US trade policies, and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long - position [4] Precious Metals - The gold market oscillated narrowly, and silver rebounded. The Middle East situation is the main influencing factor. If the two sides return to the negotiation table, the gold risk - premium may decline rapidly, and silver will remain in consolidation [5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets were stable, but demand may weaken due to industrial and real - estate pressure. Supply may not decline significantly in the short term. The market will oscillate at the bottom [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron - water production may remain high, supply is expected to be high in the second quarter, and the rising coking coal price will suppress the iron - ore price. Short - term interval oscillation [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys declined. The market rumors were false. Short - term interval oscillation [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Global economic slowdown and high tariffs do not support a sharp rise. Pay attention to US trade policies and tariff decisions [9] - **Aluminum**: The warehouse receipts increased, and the inventory decline slowed down. The demand - boosting policy has uncertainties, and the demand may weaken [9] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, the orders are weak, but the tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. Short - term oscillation, limited upside [9] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, the processing fee is low, and the production resumption may be delayed. In the off - season, the demand is weak, and the inventory increased slightly. Short - term oscillation, upside pressure [10][11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's remarks increased concerns about supply disruption in the Middle East, although the export facilities are currently unaffected [12] - **Asphalt**: The price followed the oil price to test the previous high. The shipment was stable, the profit recovered, and the inventory decline stagnated. Follow the oil price at a high level [12] - **PX**: The price followed the oil price to rise. The maintenance is concentrated in June - July, and the PTA operation rate increased. It will oscillate strongly [12] - **PTA**: The basis increased, the inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory transfer improved. It will oscillate strongly, pay attention to bottle - chip production cuts [13] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is stable, the downstream inventory decline is limited, and the synthetic - gas production resumed. It will oscillate at the bottom [13] - **Short - fiber**: It oscillated strongly following the polyester sector. The terminal orders recovered slowly, and the inventory accumulated. Follow the oil price [14] - **Methanol**: The domestic price declined slightly, the port basis strengthened. The supply may be affected by the Middle East situation, and the supply is expected to increase. Short - term strong [16] - **PP**: The price adjusted slightly. The production increased, the demand was weak, and the cost supported the price. It may face a callback after a short - term rise [17] - **LLDPE**: The price increased, the import window opened, and the inventory decreased slightly. The production restarted, and the demand was weak. Pay attention to the oil price [18] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT soybean oil futures fell, triggering profit - taking pressure. The US Senate proposed a $1 - billion tax bill [20] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean market drove the soybean meal futures up, but the domestic supply and demand will be looser. The rapeseed meal demand increase was insufficient [20] - **Oils**: The tension in the Middle East made the palm oil more attractive as a biodiesel raw material, and the palm oil exports increased [20] - **Corn**: The arrival of corn in Shandong was low, and the northeast corn provided support. Import auctions and wheat substitution may cause corn to consolidate at a high level [21] - **Hogs**: The weight reduction of large - scale farms was limited, the spot market was stable, and the demand is expected to improve seasonally [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Short-term geopolitical risks support the upward trend of precious metals, and the long-term positive logic remains unchanged. Gold may continue its strong performance in the short term, while silver will maintain a consolidation trend due to industrial demand constraints [3][4][5] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased, and the market should focus on short-term geopolitical changes and policy signals from the upcoming FOMC meeting [3][17][19] - Central banks' gold purchases are expected to drive up gold prices, and funds from central banks are expected to maintain a net inflow [3][45] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This week, gold returned to an upward trend, breaking through the $3,450 mark, while silver consolidated at a high level with a slight decline, and the gold-silver ratio rebounded [5] - US inflation data cooled down comprehensively, and employment data weakened, pushing up the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, which supported the rise of precious metals [5] - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East escalated sharply, and the risk aversion mood pushed up the premium of gold [5] Macro - Financial Factors - **Dollar Index**: This week, the dollar index continued to weaken, reaching a low of 97.60. On Friday, due to the sudden change in the Middle East geopolitical crisis, the dollar index ended its continuous decline [3][15] - **Fed Interest Rate**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in July is 23.1%, and the probability in September has risen to 71.3%, with an expectation of two rate cuts within the year [3][17][19] - **US Economic Indicators**: US manufacturing and service industries showed signs of weakness. The employment market also showed signs of softening, and inflation data was lower than expected [24][28][31] Supply - Demand Situation - **Supply**: The global silver market is expected to have a shortage of 149 million ounces in 2025 due to limited mine production increases and low recycling rates [4] - **Demand**: Central banks, especially the Chinese central bank, have resumed increasing their gold holdings, and it is expected that funds from central banks will continue to flow in. The demand from central banks is expected to support gold prices [3][45] Asset Attributes - **Monetary Attribute**: The weakening of the dollar index and the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates support the rise of precious metals [3][15] - **Financial Attribute**: The increase in the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates and the central banks' gold - buying behavior are positive for gold prices [3][17] - **Commodity Attribute**: The gold SPDR持仓量 increased slightly, and the silver SLV持仓量 changed little. The silver market is in short supply, and the inventory situation of gold and silver varies [3][4][46] Operation Suggestions - **Gold**: In the short term, supported by geopolitical risks, the trend is strong. In the long - term, the positive logic remains unchanged. If there is a correction to the lower integer pressure level, one can consider building long - term positions through the option ratio spread structure [3] - **Silver**: After breaking through a new high this week, it entered an adjustment phase. In the short term, there is still a supplementary increase structure. In the medium - term, pay attention to the balance between the safe - haven attribute and industrial demand under the Middle East conflict. Long positions in silver can use the bear spread structure to hedge against correction risks. If the short - term volatility and price continue to rise significantly, one can build a call option selling position above to lock in profits [4] Other Key Information - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: As the price of gold rose this week, the gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly. If the gold - silver ratio drops significantly in the short term, one can consider going long [70]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the intensification of the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the global risk appetite has significantly decreased, while the domestic risk appetite has also cooled overall. However, the short - term net export has strengthened the economic pull, which helps to boost the domestic risk preference to some extent. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is in short - term shock, with cautious short - term long positions; the treasury bond is in short - term high - level shock, with cautious observation; each commodity sector also shows different trends, and corresponding short - term operation suggestions are given [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The attack on Iran by Israel has intensified the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, leading the market to buy safe - haven assets, a short - term rebound of the US dollar, and a significant decline in the global risk preference. - Domestic: China's May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected. The short - term net export has strengthened the economic pull, which helps to boost the domestic risk preference. However, due to the intensified geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the domestic risk appetite has cooled overall, and the weak corporate credit in May indicates insufficient real demand. - Asset performance: The stock index is in short - term shock, with cautious short - term long positions; the treasury bond is in short - term high - level shock, with cautious observation; among the commodity sectors, the black metals are in short - term low - level shock, with cautious observation; the non - ferrous metals are in short - term shock, with cautious observation; the energy and chemical products are in short - term rebound, with cautious long positions; the precious metals are in short - term high - level strong shock, with cautious long positions [3]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market has declined overall, dragged down by sectors such as beauty care, Internet e - commerce, and film and television theaters. The short - term net export has strengthened the economic pull, which helps to boost the domestic risk preference, but the overall domestic risk preference has cooled. The current market trading logic focuses on the geopolitical risk in the Middle East, changes in US trade policies, and the progress of trade negotiations. In the short term, the intensified geopolitical risk in the Middle East has cooled the market sentiment. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. Precious Metals - Last week, gold returned to an upward trend, breaking through the $3450 level, while silver was in high - level consolidation with a slight decline, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded. The US inflation data has cooled comprehensively, and the employment data has weakened. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has escalated sharply. Next week, the evolution of the Middle East situation will be the main line. Gold may continue to be strong in the short term, while silver will remain in a consolidation market due to the suppression of industrial demand [5]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets slightly stabilized last Friday, but the actual demand continued to weaken in the off - season. The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 14.07 tons week - on - week, and the demand peak has been further confirmed. The decline in the production of the five major steel products has increased this week, mainly contributed by rebar. Considering the considerable profits of steel mills, the supply may remain at a high level in the short term. The steel market is expected to be in range - bound shock in the short term [6][7]. Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore slightly declined last Friday. The molten iron output has decreased for five consecutive weeks, but considering the good profitability of steel mills, the molten iron output may still remain at a high level. The global iron ore shipments and arrivals have increased this week, and the port inventory has also slightly increased. The medium - term downward trend of iron ore prices is difficult to change, but the high molten iron output will support the prices. Short - term range - bound shock is expected [7]. Ferrosilicon/Ferromanganese - The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese slightly rebounded last Friday. The demand for ferroalloys continued to decline. The procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferromanganese in June increased compared with May. The spot price of manganese ore remained weak. The market of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is expected to be in range - bound shock in the short term [8]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has escalated, increasing the probability of regional hot conflict, and crude oil faces similar risks as in 2022. The spot market was already tight before the conflict, but the long - term supply increase pattern remains unchanged. It is not recommended to chase long positions in the short term [9]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt has risen following the sharp increase in oil prices. The recent shipment volume has remained stable, and the inventory depletion has stagnated. As the demand approaches the peak season, the future depletion situation should be monitored. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [9]. PX - There are still many maintenance plans from June to July, and the PTA device operation rate has increased significantly. With the recent sharp rise in crude oil prices, the PX price will continue to be in a strong - side shock in the short term [9]. PTA - After the return of device maintenance, the supply has increased significantly, and the downstream production reduction continues. It is expected to turn into a slight inventory accumulation in June. After the June contract ends, the tightness of spot liquidity may be alleviated. It is expected to decline in the short term due to the increase in crude oil prices [9]. Ethylene Glycol - The short - term return of synthetic gas - based devices and the decline in downstream production reduction operation rate have led to a low decline in the short - term port visible inventory and a slight inventory accumulation in some factories. It is necessary to wait for the recovery of downstream demand, and the inventory depletion is postponed. The price will remain in shock [10][11]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber generally follows the polyester sector in a strong - side shock pattern. The terminal orders have recovered slowly, and the operation rate has declined. The inventory has accumulated again. It will follow the upward movement of the polyester sector due to the recent rise in oil prices [11]. Methanol - The reduction of port arrival plans has increased the concern about the tightness of cargo circulation, and the methanol price has strengthened under the promotion of geopolitical factors. There is still an upward driving force in the short term. However, the operation rate of inland devices has gradually increased, and the supply is loose. The overall industrial inventory is still low, and the long - term price has room to decline [11]. PP - The PP production has increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the new production capacity is still being put into operation. The downstream operation rate has slightly declined, and the fundamentals are deteriorating. But the futures price has rebounded following the energy and chemical products due to the rise in crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical factors to prevent a sharp fall after the rise [11]. LLDPE - In the short term, due to the influence of geopolitics, the contradiction in the PE market is concentrated on the cost side, and the price has rebounded following crude oil. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical factors to prevent a sharp fall after the rise [11]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The US consumer confidence has improved to some extent, but consumers are still cautious about the economic trend. The Sino - US talks in London have achieved certain results, but there is no excessive surprise. As the tariff suspension deadline on July 9 approaches, attention may turn to the high - tariff risk again. The demand peak season is coming to an end, and there is a risk of marginal decline in demand. If the production remains high and the demand continues to decline, inventory accumulation will start. It will be in shock in the short term [12]. Aluminum - From Wednesday to Friday last week, the Shanghai Aluminum 06 contract rose significantly for three consecutive days. The spot price increase was similar to the futures price in the first two days, and the premium changed little. On Friday, the spot price increase was much smaller than the futures price, and the premium declined significantly [12]. Aluminum Alloy - In the short and medium term, the market sentiment is warm, and it will be in a slightly strong shock. However, due to the seasonal off - season of demand and potential macro risks, and the obvious seasonal characteristics of ADC12 price, the upside space is limited [12]. Tin - On the supply side, the domestic tin ore is tight, the processing fee is low, and the combined operation rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has dropped significantly. The resumption of production in Myanmar may be delayed, and Thailand has suspended the transportation of tin ore from Myanmar. On the demand side, it has entered the off - season, and the orders in the electronics and automotive industries have decreased. The inventory has increased slightly. The price will be in a strong - side shock in the short term, but the upside space is under pressure [13]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The CBOT grain market is supported by the geopolitical conflict, and the US soybeans are also supported by the US soybean oil market in the short term. The bull market of US soybean oil dominated by support policies has room for correction. The weather supports a good harvest. The US soybeans will maintain a large - range market, and the price may be strong in the short term due to the short - term net long - position covering [15]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The inventory of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills may continue to recover, and the weak basis market continues. The market has priced in the future shortage of imported soybeans more. The domestic rapeseed import supply is tightening, and the port inventory is decreasing. The futures - end risk preference of soybean meal and rapeseed meal may increase, and the low - valued spot soybean meal may attract more buying interest, which will strengthen the long - position support of soybean meal [15]. Oils and Fats - The US EPA has modified the RFS rules, and the RVO meets market expectations. The Israel - Iran conflict has boosted the international oil and fat risk preference. The domestic palm oil import profit is inverted, and the shipment has improved. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are stable, but the short - term may follow the external market to be strong, and the soybean - palm oil price inversion may further expand [15]. Corn - The wheat purchase policy has improved the market sentiment, and the new wheat listing has increased the market grain supply. The flour mill operation rate is not high, and the demand for flour is low. The corn market has seen a decrease in short - term shipments, and the spot price has generally risen. The wheat - corn price difference has shrunk, and the corn may face a high - level consolidation in the short term [15]. Hogs - The pig - raising enterprises have significantly reduced the weight of hogs, and the planned slaughter has been completed smoothly. The pig price has been under pressure. The short - term weather has affected the slaughter, and the purchase and storage orders have increased. The pig price shows signs of stabilization. The futures 09 contract has rebounded significantly. However, the pig market is still in the off - season, and the 09 contract's profit expectation should be reduced [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From April to May, the black metal sector showed a pattern of strong current reality but weak future expectations, with the discount of futures prices to spot prices widening. The current real - demand is acceptable, especially the export demand is resilient. Steel mills have good profitability and are mostly operating at full capacity, with hot metal production expected to remain between 240 - 245 million tons for a long time. Attention should be paid to whether the weak demand expectation in the off - season can be realized. If the expectation is false, prices may rebound; otherwise, the weakness may continue. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. Iron ore has a risk of supplementary decline in the medium term, and coking coal may fall again due to the oversupply situation [2][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Background - From April to May, the steel market had strong current demand but weak future expectations. The market was pessimistic about the future due to the off - season and the Sino - US trade conflict, leading to a large discount of futures to spot prices. At the end of May, the US raised steel tariffs, but market expectations eased after the Sino - US leaders' call. The research team visited 8 local enterprises in Tangshan from June 9th to understand the supply - demand situation, the impact of tariff hikes on exports, and enterprises' views on the market [5]. 3.2 Research Conclusions - **Order situation**: Steel mills' orders are generally booked 15 - 30 days in advance, with over - selling being common. Demand for shipbuilding and infrastructure steel is good, while construction steel demand is poor. Some steel mills reported slower downstream purchases due to the expected off - season [2][6]. - **Profitability and production**: Steel mills' profit per ton is generally between 150 - 160 yuan, and some steel billet profits can reach 200 yuan/ton. Most enterprises are operating at full capacity, with hot metal production expected to stay between 240 - 245 million tons for a long time [2][6][8]. - **Export situation**: Although there was a brief impact on exports in early April due to the trade conflict, exports have been performing well since then. Some steel mills' export orders are booked until August or September, and high export profits have reduced the available steel billet resources [2][6]. - **Raw material inventory**: Steel mills' iron ore inventory is about 10 - 15 days, and coking coal and coke are purchased as needed, with inventory levels of 2 - 7 days [2][6]. - **Market outlook**: Enterprises have different views on the future, but generally, the industry is cautious, not expecting a short - term improvement. Most believe that the oversupply of coking coal remains unchanged, and prices may fall further [2][6][7]. - **Operation strategies**: Some local enterprises are buying rebar futures and selling forward - delivery steel billet spot. Others are hedging iron ore through futures or over - the - counter options to lock in costs [7]. 3.3 Research Minutes by Enterprise - **A steel trader**: The enterprise mainly sells wear - resistant plates and medium - thick plates. Inventory is low, about 2 - 3 million tons locally. Sales have doubled this year compared to last year, and export orders are good. The enterprise is not pessimistic about the second half of the year, believing that policy may be further strengthened, and coking coal prices below 800 yuan won't last long [9]. - **A plate processing warehouse**: It belongs to a large Xiamen - based trading enterprise, with a current inventory of about 4 million tons. Exports decreased after May due to stricter government control. Processing volume has declined, and the current processing capacity is 200 - 300 tons per day [10]. - **A mainstream steel billet warehouse**: It is the largest steel storage in Tangshan, with a current inventory of about 20 million tons. Steel mills are prioritizing export orders, resulting in less available steel billet resources. The enterprise is pessimistic about the future, expecting prices to gradually decline [13][14]. - **An international trading company A under a steel mill**: The affiliated steel mill has a capacity of 7.1 million tons. The company is operating at full capacity, with good profit margins for strip steel and section steel. Orders are booked well in advance, and exports have recovered. Raw material inventory is low [15]. - **An international trading company B under a steel mill**: The company believes that the steel billet market is in a bullish structure. It is buying rebar futures and selling steel billet spot. Industry - wide steel billet export orders are good. The enterprise is not pessimistic about the second half of the year [17]. - **Steel mill A**: It has an annual capacity of 7.5 million tons. After a blast furnace resumed operation, it is expected to have another maintenance. Profits are high, and orders are booked one month in advance. Export has recovered. The enterprise is pessimistic about July - August due to expected hot metal production decline and believes coking coal prices will fall further [18][19]. - **Steel mill B**: With a capacity of 10 million tons, it has good sales and profits, and is operating at full capacity. It is not pessimistic about the future, but believes that cost factors may drag down steel prices [20]. - **Steel mill C**: It has a capacity of about 2 million tons, with good profits and full - capacity production. Orders are booked until September. The enterprise believes the market is at the bottom, and is conducting some futures - cash reverse arbitrage and iron ore hedging. It thinks coking coal will remain weak [21].

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 彭亚勇 【贵金属】周四黄金市场延续上行态势，沪金上涨至 786 元/克，沪银小幅回落至 8779 元一线。中东紧张局势加剧，美伊将于 6 月 15 日举行伊核问题新一轮会谈， 美方决定撤离非 ...

从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F0314 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global risk preference is on the rise due to the positive progress of US trade negotiations, with the US showing good progress in tariff negotiations, such as the potential for an interim trade agreement between India and the US by the end of the month and the near - agreement on steel import tariffs between the US and Mexico. In China, May's export was slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, which boosts domestic risk preference in the short term [3]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position strategy; bonds are at a high level and volatile, suggesting cautious observation; commodities show different trends in sub - sectors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Global and Domestic Market Conditions**: Overseas, US tariff negotiations are going well, which boosts global risk preference. In China, May's export was slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, strengthening the short - term economic pull of net exports and boosting domestic risk preference. The ongoing Sino - US economic and trade consultations may affect the market in the short term, increasing market volatility [3]. - **Asset Performance and Strategies**: Stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position strategy; bonds are at a high level and volatile, suggesting cautious observation; in the commodity sector, black commodities are rebounding from a low level, suggesting cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are oscillating and rebounding, suggesting cautious long - positions; energy and chemical products are oscillating and rebounding, suggesting long - positions; precious metals are at a high level and volatile, suggesting long - positions [3]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: Domestic stocks continued to decline slightly, dragged down by sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and military industry. - **Fundamentals and Influencing Factors**: China's May export was slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, which helps boost domestic risk preference in the short term. The ongoing Sino - US economic and trade consultations may affect the market in the short term, increasing market volatility. The market's trading logic focuses on US trade policy changes and trade negotiation progress. - **Operation Strategy**: Short - term cautious long - positions [4]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold prices fell slightly, with Shanghai gold dropping to 774 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver remaining at a high level of 8889 yuan. - **Influencing Factors**: Trade improvement boosts risk preference. Investors are waiting for more information on Sino - US consultations and focusing on the upcoming consumer price index data to judge the Fed's policy path. There are stagflation risks, and the Sino - US economic and trade consultation eases the trade situation, but negotiations between the US and other countries are ongoing. - **Operation Strategy**: Silver has a demand for technical breakthrough and catch - up growth, and the gold - silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to remain at a high level and volatile. A callback - buying strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to long - term layout opportunities after a phased callback [5]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell slightly as the market awaited the results of Sino - US trade talks. - **Influencing Factors**: The US Commerce Secretary said the talks were fruitful, but no agreement was announced. Some Canadian oil sands production affected by wildfires is resuming, and API data shows concerns about recent demand due to large increases in refined oil inventories despite a slight decrease in crude oil inventories. - **Trend Outlook**: Oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the near future [6][7]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell slightly, and asphalt prices remained at a high level and volatile. - **Influencing Factors**: Demand has recovered to some extent, but the recovery is limited. The basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly, and the market structure has weakened following the spot market. After profit recovery, production has increased, and inventory depletion has stagnated. - **Trend Outlook**: In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [7]. PX - **Market Performance**: PX prices are in a weak and volatile short - term pattern, with the external market price dropping to 817 US dollars and the PXN spread dropping to 257 US dollars. - **Influencing Factors**: PTA's recent increase in production has led to higher future demand for PX, and there are still many domestic maintenance plans from June to July, so the supply is expected to be tight. However, the recent decline in PTA prices has led to a decline in the external PX market. - **Trend Outlook**: It will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PTA's basis remains high, and the monthly spread has declined slightly. There is a high probability of a slight inventory accumulation pattern starting in June, and after the June contract delivery, the tight supply in the circulation link may ease, and both the structure and price may decline. - **Influencing Factors**: In recent days, the polyester market's logic is mainly related to the cost side, with a high degree of resonance with crude oil and limited self - driving factors. - **Trend Outlook**: It will mainly maintain a weak and volatile pattern [7]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The visible inventory of ethylene glycol remains above 650,000 tons, and inventory depletion is limited. - **Influencing Factors**: There are still many expectations for the return of syngas plants, and the supply side is putting pressure on the market. Downstream production has decreased due to production cuts, and the inventory depletion rate may decrease marginally. - **Trend Outlook**: It may maintain a volatile pattern in the near future [8]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: Short - fiber prices are in a weak and volatile pattern. - **Influencing Factors**: The recovery of terminal orders is significantly slower than expected, and short - fiber prices have weakened. Downstream production is expected to decrease in the short term, and short - term orders are still weak, leading to an increase in inventory. - **Trend Outlook**: It will continue to be weak and volatile in the short term [8]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The port methanol market price is oscillating and rising, and the basis has increased. The inland and port inventories are rising simultaneously. - **Influencing Factors**: Due to the "ship age limit" event, the expected import volume is decreasing, and the port inventory accumulation process is expected to slow down. Inland plant production is gradually increasing, and the supply is abundant, while the downstream demand is generally good. - **Trend Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, but the price may decline in the long term [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The domestic PP market is oscillating narrowly, and the futures price has slightly recovered with other energy - chemical products, but the space is limited. - **Influencing Factors**: PP production is increasing both year - on - year and month - on - month, with new production capacity being put into operation. Downstream production has slightly decreased, and inventory has increased significantly after the holiday, with high finished - product inventory, and the fundamentals are deteriorating. - **Trend Outlook**: The price will be under pressure and move downward in the long term [10]. LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The polyethylene market price has been adjusted, with prices rising in different regions. - **Influencing Factors**: The import windows for some LD and HD varieties are open, but there are not many import offers. The proportion of linear film production is the highest, and plant production is gradually resuming, while downstream production has slightly decreased, and inventory has increased to a neutral level. The expected new production capacity is suppressing prices. - **Trend Outlook**: The rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to medium - and long - term short - selling opportunities [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The market is waiting for the results of Sino - US negotiations in London, and copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. - **Influencing Factors**: The copper ore supply is relatively tight, the copper concentrate TC has slightly increased, and the port inventory of copper concentrate is at a high level. Electrolytic copper production is at a high level, and there is no strong motivation for production cuts. The peak demand season is approaching its end, and there are risks of a marginal decline in demand. - **Trend Outlook**: It will be volatile in the short term [13]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum ingot inventories have continued to decline significantly, but the market's expectations are weak. - **Influencing Factors**: The subsidy funds for home appliances in Zhengzhou have been used up, and the demand side may weaken marginally under the high - supply background, and inventory depletion may slow down or even turn into inventory accumulation. - **Trend Outlook**: No clear short - term trend is mentioned, but there are concerns about future inventory changes [13]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices have rebounded, and there is potential for further short - term price repair. - **Influencing Factors**: The domestic tin ore supply is tight, processing fees have decreased, and the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has declined. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed, and Thailand has suspended tin ore transportation from Myanmar. The demand side has mixed trends, with some products maintaining high growth and others weakening, and it is entering the seasonal off - season. - **Trend Outlook**: The price may continue to repair in the short term, but the upside space is limited due to high - tariff risks, resumption of production expectations, and marginal demand decline [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT 11 - month soybean contract closed at 1031.25, up 0.50 or 0.05%. - **Influencing Factors**: The weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas are good, the sowing progress is fast, and the production situation is stable for now. In South America, Brazil's soybean premium is still strong, and Argentina's soybean harvest is 91%, with the production volume adjusted down to 48.5 million tons. The USDA's June supply - demand report may have a neutral impact on the market, and the focus is on the end - of - month US soybean planting area forecast report. - **Trend Outlook**: The market expects an increase in US soybean planting area compared to previous expectations [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Performance**: The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate increased by 1.49% to 65.03% compared to the previous day. - **Influencing Factors**: The soybean meal basis is low, and inventory repair is ongoing. The lack of upward momentum in US soybeans also means that soybean meal lacks stable upward support. For rapeseed meal, the inventory depletion in ports is slow, the Sino - Canadian trade relationship is expected to improve, and downstream demand is cautious due to the higher cost - performance of soybean meal. - **Trend Outlook**: No clear short - term trend is mentioned [16]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The short - term port inventory pressure is not large, and the price is stable. - **Influencing Factors**: The price difference between Shandong and North Ports/South Ports and North Ports is high, and the North Port's shipping volume is large, with rapid inventory depletion. The inventory of North China's deep - processing enterprises is at the end - of - year level, and the replenishment demand is strong. The proportion of wheat used for feed is increasing in most regions except for wheat - producing and consuming areas. - **Trend Outlook**: In the medium term, if the price difference between Brazilian and domestic corn narrows as expected, the price of old - crop corn is likely to rise [17]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: In May, Malaysia's palm oil production, import, export, and ending inventory all increased. In June, Malaysia's palm oil exports continued to improve, and the price remained stable within a certain range. - **Influencing Factors**: The improvement in exports and the strength of external crude oil and oils support palm oil prices. - **Trend Outlook**: It will remain stable within a certain range [18]. Pork - **Market Performance**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the slaughter volume decreased, but the order volume has increased recently. The spot price has stabilized after a decline. - **Influencing Factors**: Consumption is weak in summer, and the supply is increasing as large - scale farms plan to increase the slaughter volume in June, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing. The "reserve purchase" information has boosted the farmers' reluctance to sell, and the second - fattening enthusiasm has increased, which has helped stabilize the spot price. - **Trend Outlook**: The futures and spot markets are under pressure in the short term, but the spot price has shown signs of stabilization [18].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The global risk appetite has generally increased due to the easing of trade tensions and better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data. In China, although May exports were slightly lower than expected, the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; different commodity sectors also have corresponding trends and investment suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Global and Domestic Situation**: Overseas, the hope of easing trade tensions and better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data alleviated concerns about an impending economic slowdown, increasing global risk appetite. In China, May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [3]. - **Asset Performance and Suggestions**: The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see. Among commodities, black commodities are expected to rebound at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemical products are expected to rebound with fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to be long; precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to be long [3]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: Driven by sectors such as biomedicine, football concepts, and rare earths, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly [4]. - **Fundamentals and Suggestions**: China's May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. The market's trading logic mainly focuses on changes in US trade policies and the progress of trade negotiations. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold rose slightly due to the weakening dollar, and silver maintained a strong upward trend. - **Fundamentals and Suggestions**: May's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but there were concerns in employment data. The ISM manufacturing PMI was at a low level, and inflation expectations remained high, accumulating stagflation risks. There is still uncertainty in the trade situation. Silver has a demand for technical breakthrough and catch-up growth, and the gold-silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Pay attention to the weekly CPI price index to judge the Fed's policy path [5]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continued to rise on Monday as the new round of China-US trade negotiations brought the possibility of easing global trade tensions. The market is also closely watching the progress of US-Iran negotiations. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6][7]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rose slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Demand has recovered to a certain extent, but the recovery amplitude is still limited. The basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly, and the futures structure has weakened following the spot. Inventory destocking has stagnated recently, and it is advisable to continue to follow the high-level fluctuations of crude oil in the short term [7]. - **PX**: PTA's start-up has increased slightly recently, and the demand for PX will increase in the future. The supply pattern will remain tight, but the PX price has declined recently, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [7]. - **PTA**: The basis of PTA remains high, but the monthly spread has declined significantly. The supply of the upstream of the polyester end will increase in the short term, and the pattern of downstream load reduction is unlikely to change. The basis has probably reached a stage high recently [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The visible inventory of ethylene glycol has not been significantly destocked, and the cost pricing logic still exerts pressure on the futures market. The supply of ethylene glycol will increase significantly in the future, and the downstream start-up has decreased month-on-month. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern recently [8]. - **Short Fiber**: Short fiber generally maintains a weak and volatile pattern. The recovery speed of terminal orders is significantly lower than expected, and the price of short fiber has begun to weaken. It is expected to continue to operate weakly and volatile in the short term [8]. - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol at the port maintains a volatile trend, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The inventory in the inland and at the port has increased simultaneously. It is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, and the price still has room to decline in the medium and long term [8]. - **PP**: The domestic market quotation of PP is mainly stable, and the inventory has increased after the holiday. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure and the center of gravity will move down [9]. - **LLDPE**: The price of the polyethylene market has been adjusted, and the inventory has increased. The production expectation suppresses the price, and the price center of gravity is expected to move down [9][10]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China-US negotiation has entered a deep stage, and it is difficult to exceed expectations greatly. The copper mine supply is relatively tight, but the production of electrolytic copper is at a high level. The demand is approaching the off-season, and there is a risk of marginal decline in demand. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [11]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory of aluminum ingots has continued to decline significantly, but the market expectation is weak. The demand may weaken marginally, and the inventory destocking will slow down or even accumulate [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight in the domestic real market, and the production rate has declined. The demand is in the off-season, and the inventory has decreased. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed, and the tin price is expected to continue to repair in the short term, but the upside space is under pressure [12]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the net selling of CBOT grain commodity funds increased. The meteorological conditions in the US soybean producing areas are good, and the sowing progress is fast. The USDA's June supply and demand report may have a neutral impact on the market. Pay attention to the end-of-month report on the estimated soybean planting area [13]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: China's soybean imports in May increased significantly year-on-year. The pressure of concentrated arrivals of domestic imports has been realized, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has been quickly repaired. Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal lack a stable upward driving force [13][14]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The opening of oil mills has returned to normal, and the inventory of soybean oil has continued to rise. The supply of rapeseed oil in the spot market has increased. Pay attention to changes in China-Canada trade policies [15]. - **Palm Oil**: The energy market is under pressure to decline in the medium and long term, and the external油脂 market is under pressure. The domestic import profit is inverted, and the inventory is low. The inventory has increased slightly recently [15]. - **Live Pigs**: As the incremental supply of group farms and the expectation of weight reduction and pressure release in the market are gradually realized, pig prices may continue to be weakly adjusted. There may be a supplementary increase in the near-month contract [16]. - **Corn**: The corn market is affected by wheat policies and is quoted strongly. The short-term upward pressure on the spot and futures prices still exists, but after the wheat harvest, the corn demand will return, and it is still an easy-to-rise and difficult-to-fall market [16].