Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and the remarks of multiple Fed officials have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and multiple industry stabilization and growth plans have been introduced, increasing policy support and boosting domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. In terms of assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; among commodity sectors, black is short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and Fed officials' remarks have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and policies have increased support, boosting risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, black is short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels [3]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as coal, banking, insurance, and port shipping, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the acceleration of domestic economic growth and the increase in policy support, risk appetite has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market continued to rise. With the increase in risk aversion and the expectation of Fed rate cuts, spot gold reached a record high. Short - term, precious metals are strongly running, and the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term, long positions can be held or reduced on rallies; medium - and long - term, buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was weak on Thursday, but the futures price rebounded slightly. Market expectations have improved due to the approaching Fourth Plenary Session and expectations for the APEC meeting. The real demand has improved marginally, and steel supply may decline stage - by - stage. The steel market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, while the futures price declined. Iron production is still high, and steel mills' restocking has ended. With the narrowing of profits, the willingness to cut production may increase. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded from the bottom. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased due to the decline in steel production. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, and the Lanzhou charcoal market is stable. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly in a range. Supply has increased marginally, and there is an expectation of anti - involution, forming a bottom support. Demand has improved marginally during the traditional peak season but is currently slowing down. It is expected to run weakly in a short - term range [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: From January to September, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 1.2% year - on - year. Copper social inventory is at a relatively high level. The global copper mine output growth rate is expected to be high in 2026. The US economy has uncertainties, which are potential risk points. In the short - and medium - term, domestic electrolytic copper production is high, demand is facing a test, and de - stocking is less than expected [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, aluminum prices were strong. Aluminum social inventory decreased significantly, and aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly. The smelting profit is high, supply is rigid, imports are high, and demand is weakening marginally. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [12]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tightening globally. The demand has improved slightly but remains weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with support from low smelting start - up and peak - season expectations, but the upside is limited by high - price consumption suppression and macro risks [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's statement about meeting with Putin and the upcoming high - level Sino - US and Russia - US talks have raised expectations of increased Russian oil supply. Western sanctions and Sino - US trade tensions have also affected demand. Crude oil prices are expected to decline [14]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices test support, the probability of asphalt breaking through support has increased. Demand is nearing the end, inventory pressure is increasing, and it is difficult for asphalt to have a strong upward drive [14][15]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: On Thursday, the carbonate lithium futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the industrial silicon futures contract rose slightly. Production has reached a new high, and the 2511 contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt digestion. It is expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly due to rumors of storage and capacity regulation [14]. - **PX**: PX is weakly oscillating. Although it gets some demand support from PTA's high - start, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector [15]. - **PTA**: After the decline of crude oil prices, polyester is in a low - level oscillation. Downstream demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is increasing. PTA prices will continue to run weakly [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The sentiment of ethylene glycol is weak. Port inventory is rising, demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. It is expected to continue to be in an oversupply situation in late October [16]. - **PP**: The PP market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. New capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and the price is expected to be weak [18]. - **LLDPE**: The supply of LLDPE is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is rising slightly. It is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is under pressure, and its future trend depends on the implementation of export policies [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the CBOT November soybean contract rose. Strong domestic demand offset trade concerns, and the September soybean crushing volume reached a record high [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the start - up rate returned to normal. However, the oil mill inventory is under pressure, and the fourth - quarter soybean supply may be loose. Without guidance from US soybeans, it may oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade dynamics for rapeseed meal [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: With the visit of the Canadian foreign minister, the short - term risk of rapeseed oil has decreased. Soybean oil prices may be relatively weak due to inventory pressure [21]. - **Palm Oil**: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle. In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, suppressing prices, but exports also increased, providing some support [21]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has increased, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices to a record low. Although there are signs of second - fattening, the quantity is small. With the decrease in temperature and the recovery of consumption, pig prices may stabilize [21][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - China's M2 declined in September and was lower than expected, mainly due to a short - term sharp decrease in non - bank deposits. The overall M2 remained at a reasonable level, and the monetary policy continued to be loose. The new social financing decreased slightly year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in fiscal financing and the decrease in the financing demand of the household and enterprise sectors. The transmission from loose money to loose credit continued. Given the existing external shock risks and the stable domestic economic growth, the monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose. With fiscal efforts and the easing of external shocks, the financing demand of enterprises, households, and the government is expected to gradually recover, and the transmission from loose money to loose credit is expected to accelerate. In the short term, financial data has little impact on domestic risk assets and the RMB exchange rate, while in the long - term, the process of loose credit is expected to speed up as domestic support policies are implemented and take effect [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content M2 Situation - In September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, with an expected 8.5% and a previous value of 8.8%. The growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and increased by 1.6 percentage points from the same period last year. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 declined and was lower than expected because of the large increase in enterprise and household deposits and the significant decrease in non - bank deposits due to the return of wealth management funds to the balance sheet. The overall money supply maintained reasonable growth. M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous month and higher than the expected 6.1%, reflecting the improvement of enterprise profits and the continuous current - account of household and enterprise deposits. M0 increased by 11.5% year - on - year, down 0.2%. With M1 rising and M2 remaining high, the overall capital supply remained stable, and the monetary policy continued to be loose. Due to the stable domestic economic growth and existing external shock risks, the monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose. With the acceleration of debt resolution, the implementation of fiscal and real - estate policies, and the short - term improvement of the real - estate market, the demand for credit creation will pick up, and M2 is expected to rise in the short term [1][2]. New RMB Loans - In September, new RMB loans were 129 billion yuan, with an expected 1460 billion yuan and a previous value of 59 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The new loans in September were less than the same period last year and lower than market expectations, mainly due to the decline in bill financing and household loans. New household short - term loans were 14.21 billion yuan, 12.79 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and new household long - term loans were 25 billion yuan, 2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The decline in household loans may reflect the weak income expectations of households. The long - term loans were moderately boosted by the optimized real - estate demand policies in first - tier cities. New enterprise loans were 122 billion yuan, 27 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Short - term and long - term loans were 71 billion and 91 billion yuan respectively, with short - term loans increasing by 25 billion yuan and long - term loans decreasing by 5 billion yuan year - on - year, partly affected by local governments' repayment of enterprise arrears. The new bill financing was - 40.26 billion yuan, 47.12 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and off - balance - sheet bills increased year - on - year, possibly reflecting the decline in banks' bill - padding demand at the end of the quarter [1][3][4]. Social Financing Scale - In September, the increment of the social financing scale was 353.37 billion yuan, with an expected 335 billion yuan and a previous value of 256.68 billion yuan, 22.98 billion yuan less than the same period last year. At the end of September, the stock of the social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. The transmission from loose money to loose credit continued. In terms of the structure of new social financing, the credit financing demand of the real economy decreased year - on - year, with household credit demand picking up and enterprise credit decreasing. Enterprise bond financing increased, government bond issuance continued to accelerate, and non - standard financing demand rose. New credit in September was 160.8 billion yuan, 36.62 billion yuan less than the same period last year, mainly related to the decline in the bill financing demand of households and real - economy enterprises. Non - standard assets such as trust loans, entrusted loans, and bank acceptances not yet discounted increased by 35.79 billion yuan in total, 18.69 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Enterprise bond financing increased by 1.05 billion yuan, 20.31 billion yuan more than the same period last year, mainly supported by the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds and private enterprise bonds. Government bond net financing was 118.86 billion yuan, 34.71 billion yuan less than the same period last year, mainly due to the large - scale issuance of government bonds in the same period last year. Overall, the financing demand of the real - economy sector decreased year - on - year. In the short - and medium - term, due to the negative impact of tariffs, the government will continue to expand financing. The enterprise sector's financing demand is expected to improve gradually in the long - term, and the household sector's financing demand is expected to continue the slow recovery trend. Although the current social financing demand has declined slightly year - on - year in the short term, the process of loose credit is expected to accelerate in the long - term as the domestic monetary policy continues to be loose and support policies are further strengthened and implemented [1][5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's Beige Book shows a slight decline in consumer spending and generally weak labor demand. Fed Governor Milan calls for a faster pace of interest rate cuts, which leads to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and with the release of restrained statements from both China and the US, domestic risk appetite has rebounded. Multiple industry stabilization and growth plans have been introduced, strengthening the short - term upward macro - drive. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and China - US games [3]. - In the asset market, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting and watching are advised; among commodity sectors, black commodities are short - term oscillating, short - term cautious waiting and watching; non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, cautious waiting and watching; precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels, cautious long positions [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The Fed's Beige Book indicates a slight decline in consumer spending and weak labor demand. Fed Governor Milan calls for faster rate cuts, with two more cuts this year being realistic. This causes the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to fall, and global risk appetite to rise. Domestic: Economic growth accelerates, and with China - US restraint, domestic risk appetite rebounds. Multiple industry support policies are introduced, enhancing the short - term upward macro - drive. Focus on China - US trade talks and domestic incremental policies. Asset suggestions: short - term long for stock indices, cautious waiting for treasury bonds, different strategies for different commodity sectors [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as automobiles, consumer electronics, and airport shipping, the domestic stock market rises significantly. With economic growth accelerating, China - US restraint, and policy support, domestic risk appetite rebounds. Short - term long positions are recommended [4]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market continues to rise. Driven by Fed rate - cut expectations and geopolitical tensions, spot gold reaches new highs with increased short - term volatility. Short - term long positions can be held or reduced at high prices, and long - term buying on dips is advised [4]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets remain weak, with low trading volumes. The fundamentals are weak, with inventory rising and apparent consumption falling. Although production is falling, mills have weak willingness to cut production. The market may continue to be weak in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - Futures and spot prices of iron ore continue to fall. With high iron - water output and shrinking mill profits, the willingness to cut production may increase. Supply shows a decline in global shipments and an increase in arrivals, and port inventory rises. A bearish view is recommended [7][8]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebound slightly. Demand decreases due to a slight decline in steel production. Manganese ore prices are weak. Supply shows a decrease in the开工 rate and daily output of silicon manganese. Prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Copper prices rise and then fall. In 2026, global copper mine output growth is expected to be high, and the Panama Cobre copper mine may restart. US economic uncertainties are a risk. Domestically, electrolytic copper production is high, but demand is facing challenges, and inventory reduction is below expectations [11]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rise slightly as trade - tension concerns ease. Inventory is increasing, supply is rigid, demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [12]. Tin - Supply is tight globally due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining and policy adjustments. Demand improvement is limited. Prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, with support from tight supply and limited upside due to consumption suppression and macro risks [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 73,150 yuan/ton. With trade conflicts and potential spot selling pressure, the short - term upward drive is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [13]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is stable. With high production and no significant inventory accumulation, it is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the cost support [13]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are stable. With increasing warehouse receipts and supply - demand imbalance, it is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the spot price support [14]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Despite Fed rate - cut signals, oil prices are under pressure due to OPEC+ production increases. US key price indicators fall, and some market indicators weaken. Oil prices will test lower levels, and macro risks should be monitored [15]. Asphalt - Oil prices are low, and asphalt oscillates at the bottom. Demand is near the end, inventory pressure is increasing, and it is necessary to monitor the cost support from crude oil [15][16]. PX - PX oscillates weakly, with demand support from PTA high - level operation. It is likely to continue to oscillate weakly with the polyester sector [16]. PTA - Polyester products oscillate at low levels. With high supply, increasing inventory, and weakening demand, PTA prices will continue to be weak [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol sentiment is weak. With rising inventory, new production expectations, and weak demand, it is expected to accumulate inventory in late October and trade at low levels [17]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber adjusts with the polyester sector. With limited terminal orders and inventory accumulation, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. Methanol - Methanol prices oscillate weakly. Supply growth exceeds demand recovery, and high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to US sanctions on Iran [18]. PP - PP prices fall. The market has a pattern of increasing supply and demand, but new capacity and trade conflicts lead to a bearish view [19]. LLDPE - LLDPE prices adjust. Supply pressure is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and with weak oil prices and trade conflicts, it is expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. Urea - Urea prices are stable. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Although Indian tenders are a potential positive, export policies are unclear. Prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term [21]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - CBOT November soybeans rise slightly. US soybean crushing in September reaches a high level, with significant month - on - month and year - on - year increases [22]. Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - After the National Day, the market sentiment improves, but oil - mill inventory pressure remains high. With sufficient soybean supply in the fourth quarter, soybean meal may oscillate at low levels. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade for rapeseed meal [22]. Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - With the visit of the Canadian foreign minister, short - term rapeseed oil risk weakens. Soybean oil inventory pressure remains, and prices may be weak [22]. Palm Oil - Southeast Asian palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle. October production in Malaysia increases, suppressing prices, while exports also increase, providing some support. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 is expected to be in the second half of next year, and short - term demand growth is unlikely [22]. Live Pigs - Pig supply increases in September and October, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices to a record low. Although there are signs of second - fattening, it is not enough to support prices. With the expectation of increased consumption in autumn and winter, pig prices may stabilize [23][24].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the game between China and the US persists, the Fed's balance - sheet reduction may near an end, the employment market has a downward risk, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and a rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, multiple industry stability - growth plans are introduced, but short - term Sino - US game and domestic risk - aversion sentiment exist. The market focuses on domestic incremental policies and Sino - US game, with weak short - term upward macro drivers [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are in short - term high - level adjustment, bonds are in short - term oscillation, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends such as oscillation or adjustment [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the game between China and the US, Fed's balance - sheet reduction plan, and employment market situation affect the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, policies support multiple industries, and the market focuses on domestic policies and Sino - US game. Assets like stocks, bonds, and various commodities have different short - term trends [2]. - **Stock Index**: Affected by semiconductor, energy metal, and AI sectors, the domestic stock market falls. The economy grows, policies support, but short - term upward drivers are weak. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market rises, with gold and silver prices increasing. Affected by trade uncertainty and Fed rate - cut expectations, they are in a short - term strong and long - term upward trend. Short - term, hold long positions or reduce at high prices; long - term, buy at low prices [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel market is weak, with low - volume trading. Cost support weakens, and prices are expected to continue the weak trend in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore futures and spot falls. As steel mills' profits narrow, ore demand may decline. Supply shows a mixed trend, and a short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are stable, and the futures prices fall. Supply and demand are in a certain state, and the futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash contract is weak. Supply is in the capacity - expansion period, demand increases marginally in the peak season. In the long - term, a bearish view is recommended due to supply - side contradictions [8]. - **Glass**: The glass contract is weak. Supply increases, and the new policy provides support. Demand improves marginally in the peak season but slows down after the holiday. It is expected to run weakly in the short - term range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Affected by trade concerns, copper prices fluctuate. The global copper output is expected to grow in 2026. The US economy and copper demand have uncertainties. Short - term, the domestic output is high, and demand faces challenges [9]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices fall. Inventory increases, supply is rigid, demand weakens, and the price is difficult to rise significantly [10]. - **Tin**: The global tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate contract rises slightly. Trade conflicts and warehouse - receipt cancellation bring pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon contract falls. Production reaches a new high, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range, with attention to cost support [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon contract rises. Warehouse - receipt cancellation and supply - demand imbalance bring pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with attention to spot price support [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices are affected by trade signals, geopolitical factors, and port sanctions. Short - term, they oscillate; long - term, they are bearish [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is in a weak oscillation. The peak - season demand is near the end, inventory pressure increases, and it depends on crude - oil cost support [14]. - **PX**: PX oscillates weakly with the polyester sector. It has certain demand support but is likely to continue the weak trend [14]. - **PTA**: PTA prices are weak. Supply is high, demand is under pressure, and inventory increases [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory of ethylene glycol rises, demand is weak, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October and run at a low price [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber adjusts with the polyester sector. Terminal orders improve slightly, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices oscillate weakly. Supply exceeds demand, inventory is high, and it is under pressure [16]. - **PP**: PP prices are weak. Supply and demand both increase, but new - capacity and trade - war factors bring pressure [16][17]. - **LLDPE**: LLDPE prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Supply pressure increases, demand recovers slowly, and it is affected by oil prices and trade [17]. - **Urea**: Urea prices rise slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and it depends on export - policy implementation [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: US soybeans oscillate weakly due to demand uncertainty and lack of USDA reports [19]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic soybean meal contracts oscillate. In the long - term, the price may rise; in the short - term, inventory pressure exists, and it may oscillate at a low level [19]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil may accumulate inventory after the holiday and run weakly. Rapeseed oil inventory is being depleted and forms support [20]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil production increases in October, and exports also increase. The implementation of B50 in Indonesia has an impact on the market, and short - term demand growth is difficult [20][21]. - **Pigs**: Pig prices fall to a record low due to increased supply. With the expectation of consumption recovery in autumn and winter, prices may stabilize [21].

Overall Core View - The global risk appetite has generally increased due to the restrained statements from both China and the US. The domestic economic growth has accelerated, and the issuance of multiple industry stabilization and growth plans has increased policy support, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive is not strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. Market Analysis by Asset Class Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term high - level adjustment with increased volatility, short - term cautious long. The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as consumer electronics, auto parts, and short - drama games. The short - term macro upward drive is not strong, and short - term cautious waiting and watching are recommended [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation, cautious waiting and watching [2]. - **Commodity Sector**: - **Black Metals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious waiting and watching. Steel futures and spot prices continued to be weak, while iron ore prices were short - term strong and silicon - manganese/silicon - iron prices were expected to continue range - bound oscillations [2][4][6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term adjustment, short - term cautious long [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious waiting and watching [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - side oscillation, cautious long. The precious metal market continued to rise, and short - term long positions should be held, while medium - and long - term buying on dips is recommended [2][3]. Specific Commodities Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak, with low - level trading volume. Although the export data in September exceeded expectations and market risk appetite increased, real - world demand has not improved, and supply remains high. The steel market is expected to be weak in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Ore demand remains strong, but the expectation of steel mill production cuts has increased. Supply and inventory data show mixed trends, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to when steel mills start to cut production [4][5]. - **Silicon - manganese/Silicon - iron**: Spot and futures prices declined slightly. Alloy demand is still okay in the short term, but the prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations [6]. - **Copper**: The global copper mine output growth rate is expected to be relatively high in 2026. However, the US economy has uncertainties, and the domestic electrolytic copper demand is facing challenges. The copper inventory reduction is less than expected, and the US copper inventory is high [7]. - **Aluminum**: The price recovered due to the alleviation of trade tension concerns. The inventory has increased, and the demand has weakened marginally. It is difficult for the price to rise significantly [8]. - **Tin**: The global tin ore supply is tight, and the demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to remain high - level oscillating, but the upside is pressured [8]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of the main contract declined. Short - term upward drive is insufficient, and the market is expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract rose. The production has reached a new high, and the market is expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract declined. The supply is high, the demand is low, and the market is waiting for the implementation of the storage purchase news [10]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price rose due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, but it remains below $60. The long - term trend is bearish, and the short - term is oscillating [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: It maintains a weak - side oscillating pattern. The peak - season demand is almost over, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the fundamental driving force for recovery is weak [12]. - **PX**: It follows the polyester sector and remains in a weak - side oscillation. Although it gets some demand support, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [12]. - **PTA**: It maintains a low - level oscillation. The demand pressure will increase, and the supply will remain high, resulting in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has increased, the demand has weakened, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level range [13]. - **Short - fiber**: It adjusts with the polyester sector and is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [13]. - **Methanol**: The supply growth rate far exceeds the demand recovery, resulting in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: The post - holiday market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, but the supply pressure in the long - term is large, and the price is expected to be under pressure [14]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Urea**: The market is operating weakly due to the strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is under pressure, and the future trend depends on the export policy [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The concerns about Trump's tariff remarks in the CBOT market have eased, and the Brazilian soybean sowing progress is good [16]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The import of soybeans in the fourth quarter is expected to be abundant, and the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract is difficult to rebound significantly. The market should pay attention to the performance of the CBOT soybean market [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory has increased, and the price may be relatively weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, which forms a support [18]. - **Palm Oil**: The Southeast Asian palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle. The October production in Malaysia increases, which suppresses the price, while the export increase also provides some support [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, for different asset classes, there are short - term investment suggestions: - **Equity Index**: Short - term high - level adjustment with increased volatility, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Commodity Categories**: - **Black Metals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term adjustment, cautious and short - term cautiously go long [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - side oscillation, cautiously go long [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Overseas, the US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, intensifying short - term Sino - US game. The US dollar index and RMB exchange rate weaken, global financial markets fluctuate violently, and global risk appetite significantly cools. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but short - term Sino - US game intensifies, and domestic risk appetite cools significantly. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced, increasing policy support [3][4]. - **Market Trading Logic**: Focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US game. Short - term macro upward drive weakens; follow - up attention on Sino - US trade negotiation progress and domestic incremental policy implementation [3][4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Macro Situation**: Overseas, Sino - US game intensifies, dollar and RMB weaken, global risk appetite cools, and precious metals strengthen. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, risk appetite cools, and multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced [3]. - **Asset Suggestions**: Equity index has short - term high - level adjustment, treasury bonds oscillate in the short - term, black metals oscillate, non - ferrous metals adjust, energy and chemicals oscillate, and precious metals are strong - side oscillating at high levels. All are with cautious operation suggestions [3]. 3.2 Equity Index - **Market Performance**: Domestic stock market drops significantly due to the drag of energy metals, semiconductors, and batteries. Fundamentally, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, and risk appetite cools. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see [4]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: Last Friday, steel futures and spot prices declined slightly, and market transactions were at a low level. After the weekend, Sino - US trade conflict escalated, and market risk - aversion increased. Fundamentally, demand is weak, inventory increases by 127000 tons, and supply is expected to remain high. The steel market may be weak in the short - term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Iron ore demand is strong, but due to the weakening steel market and Sino - US trade conflict, the negative feedback may come earlier. It is recommended to short at high prices next week [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Last Friday, spot prices were flat, and futures prices declined slightly. Alloy demand is okay, but supply increases in some areas. Silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range [6]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Not mentioned in the provided content. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Tariff concerns resurfaced last Friday night. US economic data is mixed, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation increases. Some major copper mines have supply disruptions, but most are expected to resume production [8]. - **Aluminum**: Last Friday, Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell, following copper. During the holiday, domestic aluminum social inventory accumulated by 200000 tons, supply is rigid, and demand weakens marginally [9][10]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight globally, but demand improvement is limited, and high prices suppress consumption. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production increases, inventory decreases slightly. Sino - US trade conflict and 11 - month warehouse receipt cancellation may bring pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production reaches a new high, inventory increases slightly. The 2511 contract faces warehouse receipt digestion pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Production increases, inventory is high, and warehouse receipt quantity increases. Supply is high, demand is weak, and prices depend on the implementation of storage - purchase news [11]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Gaza cease - fire agreement and US tariff statements lead to a significant drop in oil prices. OPEC+增产 will continue to put downward pressure on prices [12]. - **Asphalt**: Oil price decline drives asphalt price down. Demand in the peak season is almost over, supply pressure increases, and asphalt may oscillate weakly [13]. - **PX**: It oscillates weakly with the polyester sector. Although PTA high - level operation provides some demand support, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [13]. - **PTA**: Downstream demand is weak, supply remains high, and port inventory increases. Prices will continue to run weakly [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory rises, demand deteriorates, and supply increases. It is expected to accumulate inventory in October and run at a low level [14]. - **Short - fiber**: It adjusts with the polyester sector, and terminal orders have limited improvement. It may continue to oscillate weakly [14]. - **Methanol**: Supply growth far exceeds demand recovery, inventory increases, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: After the holiday, supply and demand both increase, but new capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure [15]. - **LLDPE**: After the holiday, supply increases and demand recovers slowly. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is less than expected, and prices will continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Urea**: The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Supply is above 190000 tons per day, and demand is weak. The short - term price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on export policy [16]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Sino - US trade tension intensifies, and the CBOT soybean market is under pressure. Domestic short - term soybean meal replenishment may increase, but in the fourth quarter, supply is sufficient. CBOT soybean and domestic soybean meal may be under short - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the import of Australian rapeseed [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil inventory is expected to decrease before the import of Australian rapeseed. Palm oil has some support, and soybean oil may accumulate inventory after the holiday and run weakly [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB report is bearish, with inventory rising unexpectedly. In the short - term, there is a risk of correction, but in the medium - term, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the federal government shutdown has disrupted official economic data, leading to average market demand and rising US bond yields. The weakening yen has strengthened the US dollar, cooling global risk appetite. The first - stage cease - fire in Gaza has reduced global risk - aversion. Domestically, poor US economic data during the National Day holiday has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, causing global stock markets to rise. The central bank's large - scale MLF renewal has ensured market liquidity, and the introduction of multiple industry growth - stabilizing plans has increased policy support, potentially boosting domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and future focus should be on Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term; bonds will oscillate; among commodities, black metals will oscillate, non - ferrous metals will oscillate strongly, energy and chemicals will oscillate, and precious metals will oscillate strongly at a high level [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The federal government shutdown has disrupted economic data, resulting in average demand and rising US bond yields. The weakening yen has strengthened the US dollar, cooling global risk appetite. The Gaza cease - fire has reduced risk - aversion [3]. - Domestic: Poor US economic data during the National Day holiday has increased Fed rate - cut expectations, leading to a rise in global stock markets. The central bank's MLF renewal has ensured liquidity, and industry growth - stabilizing plans have increased policy support, potentially boosting domestic risk appetite [3][4]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as precious metals, industrial metals, and rare earths, the domestic stock market has risen significantly. Supported by factors like US economic data and domestic policies, the short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened. Short - term cautious buying is recommended [4]. Black Metals Steel - On Thursday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly, with low trading volumes. The rise of overseas non - ferrous and precious metals during the holiday has boosted market risk appetite. However, real demand is weak, with a 127 - million - ton increase in the inventory of five major steel products during the holiday, exceeding the five - year average. After late October, demand may further weaken. Supply is expected to remain high as steel mills' profits are still acceptable, and the logic of compressing steel mill profits will continue. The steel market is likely to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to strengthen. The news of long - term contract negotiations has increased expectations of supply contraction. Ore demand remains strong as the daily average pig iron output is above 2.4 million tons. During the holiday, global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.96 million tons, while arrivals increased by 2.482 million tons, and port inventories increased by 1.69 million tons. Although the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has increased, the short - term probability of actual negative feedback is low as the proportion of profitable steel mills is over 56%. Iron ore prices will oscillate within a range after the holiday, with negative feedback risks from late October to November [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - LME copper has broken through and risen due to concerns about tight global copper supply. An accident at the Grasberg mine has affected production by 270,000 tons, with a plan to resume production in mid - 2026 and fully recover in 2027. Domestic electrolytic copper production remains high, with a 11.62% year - on - year increase in September, but demand is facing challenges as previous demand - boosting factors weaken. Copper de - stocking has not met expectations, and the US economic situation needs to be monitored [8]. Aluminum - It was previously expected that SHFE aluminum would stabilize and oscillate within a 200 - 300 - point range, which has basically come true. During the holiday, the rise in copper prices has boosted aluminum prices, but on Thursday, SHFE aluminum underperformed, and the domestic - foreign price difference has decreased significantly. Domestic aluminum social inventories have accumulated during the holiday, exceeding expectations. With rigid supply and weakening demand, it is difficult for prices to rise significantly [8][9]. Tin - LME tin has soared due to the rise in copper prices and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining, but the upward space is limited. The price is supported by tight ore supply and low smelting operating rates due to maintenance at a large Yunnan smelter. However, smelters are expected to resume production in October, and ore supply will increase after November. Prices are expected to remain high in the short term but face upward pressure [9]. Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the main carbonate lithium 2511 contract rose 0.27%, with a settlement price of 73,700 yuan/ton. The weighted contract increased positions by 1,559 lots, with a total position of 677,900 lots. The supply and demand of carbonate lithium are both increasing, with strong seasonal demand, a slight reduction in social inventory, and a transfer of smelter inventory to downstream. The market is expected to oscillate, and the upper pressure range should be monitored [10]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main industrial silicon 2511 contract fell 0.29%, with a settlement price of 8,645 yuan/ton. The weighted contract increased positions by 8,057 lots, with a total position of 407,800 lots. The 2511 contract faces the pressure of digesting warehouse receipts at the end of November. The market is expected to oscillate, and the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises should be monitored [10]. Polysilicon - On Thursday, the main polysilicon 2511 contract had a 0% increase, with a settlement price of 50,185 yuan/ton. The weighted contract increased positions by 7,663 lots, with a total position of 234,000 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is increasing, and there will be concentrated cancellations in November. With high supply and low demand, the market is waiting for the implementation of state - reserve purchase news, and the support of spot prices should be monitored [11]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - After Israel reached an agreement with Hamas on hostage release and implemented a cease - fire, crude oil prices have declined as OPEC+ increases supply and demand lacks new positive signals. The strengthening of the US dollar has also reduced the attractiveness of dollar - denominated commodities [12]. Asphalt - As crude oil prices decline again, asphalt shows signs of breaking through the lower limit. The peak - season demand is almost over, and the pressure of over - supply remains. The basis is still falling, and there is some pressure for social inventory accumulation, while factory inventory is slightly increasing. The profit has recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. The impact of OPEC+ production increase on crude oil prices and the support of crude oil prices should be monitored [12][13]. PX - The change in PX is limited. The previous changes in Xinjiang's facilities have little impact on the market. The cost support from crude oil remains, but the small positive impact of increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has decreased to $218, and the external PX price has fallen to $804. PTA's short - term processing fee has been squeezed, and PX remains in a tight supply situation. With the decline of the polyester market, PX may oscillate weakly but has some support at the bottom [13]. PTA - The peak - season demand is lower than expected, with low terminal orders and low operating rates of looms. The rumor of production cuts by leading PTA manufacturers has been disproven, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. There is also a possibility that the restart of maintenance facilities will be postponed. The market has some support at the previous low but faces long - term downward pressure [13]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol continues to decline and oscillates at a low level. Similar to PTA, it faces challenges in downstream demand, with high short - term operating rates and new production capacity pressure. Although the current inventory is low, there is a risk of inventory accumulation, and the upward space for price rebound is limited in the medium term [13]. LLDPE - The polyethylene market price has adjusted. The LLDPE transaction price is 7,050 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with prices in the North and East regions falling. Supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season, but the post - holiday inventory accumulation suppresses prices. With new capacity coming on - line, the transition to the off - season, and the decline of crude oil prices, the price of PE is expected to decline [14]. Urea - The urea market is weakly declining. The supply - demand situation is under pressure. During the National Day holiday, most factories maintained stable prices, fulfilling previous orders. After the holiday, production is expected to remain above 190,000 tons per day. The agricultural demand recovery is slow due to rainfall, and industrial demand is weak. Although there is potential support from reserve demand and Indian tenders, the overall support is limited. The price may decline slightly in the short term, and the export policy after the holiday should be monitored [14][15]. Methanol - The methanol market in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia has acceptable trading. The price in Inner Mongolia's northern line has decreased by 10 - 15 yuan/ton, and the southern line is stable. In Jiangsu, the methanol market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. After the holiday, methanol inventory has accumulated, and the high port inventory suppresses prices. There is no effective way to reduce inventory in the short term, but it is expected to oscillate weakly with support from domestic and foreign gas - restriction expectations. Opportunities for long - term long positions should be awaited [14]. PP - The market trading atmosphere is good, with the mainstream price of East China's drawn wire at 6,650 - 6,750 yuan/ton. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina's polyolefins has increased by 270,000 tons. With increasing supply pressure, average downstream demand, and increasing inventory pressure, combined with the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of PP is expected to decline [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The prospects of Sino - US soybean trade and the MFP program will be the main focus of the oil - and - oilseed market. After the holiday, the market may re - evaluate the possibility of China resuming US soybean imports. If a phased arrangement is reached in the coming weeks, the possibility of resuming trade will increase. The implementation of the MFP program will reduce farmers' holding costs and relieve the pressure of grain sales and storage, which is positive for CBOT soybeans [16]. Hogs - After the holiday, the demand for hogs will weaken, and the supply - demand pressure remains high. Attention should be paid to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices, local pork purchase - and - storage dynamics, and the rhythm of passive production reduction [17]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The expected supply - demand gap of domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year will shrink, which is negative for soybean meal. In the short term, the phased replenishment of soybean meal may increase, and the cost support for near - month soybean meal will strengthen as the pressure of concentrated US soybean listing eases. The spread between near - and far - month contracts may widen. For rapeseed meal, the seasonal impact on imported rapeseed meal has significantly shrunk, and domestic rapeseed inventory is running out. Before the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the supply - demand of rapeseed meal is weak, and its market is mainly led by soybean meal [18]. Oils - Oils may oscillate strongly, with the order of strength being rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. Rapeseed oil inventory will be depleted rapidly before the arrival of Australian rapeseed, providing support. Palm oil is mainly driven by cost, with low inventory in the producing areas, stable crude oil prices, and strong related oils providing additional support. Soybean oil may experience seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday and may perform relatively weakly [18]. Corn - The room for the price decline of new corn in the Northeast after the holiday may be limited. The increase in corn prices in Shandong provides support, as deep - processing enterprises unexpectedly raised prices during the holiday, and the demand for acquisition has increased. More acquisition entities will enter the market after the holiday. In addition, the rapid rebound of wheat prices in October will also support the corn market [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, global risk appetite has risen, and the domestic risk - preference is also expected to continue to increase. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3][4]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully; among commodity sectors, black metals will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully; non - ferrous metals will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals will fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, the US September ADP employment data and ISM services PMI were below expectations, increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Although the depreciation of the yen pushed the US dollar stronger, global risk appetite continued to rise. Domestically, the US economic data during the National Day holiday was below expectations, strengthening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and global stock markets generally rose. The domestic central bank made a large - scale renewal of MLF, with abundant market liquidity. Multiple domestic industries' steady - growth plans were successively introduced, increasing policy support, and domestic risk appetite is expected to continue to rise [3]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, non - ferrous metals, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rose. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [4]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Before the holiday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets tumbled, and trading volume was at a low level. During the holiday, the EU's tariff increase on the steel industry was confirmed. The real demand continued to weaken, but there were differences in trends among varieties. The demand for rebar improved, with pre - holiday inventory decreasing by 139,800 tons and apparent consumption increasing by 104,100 tons; hot - rolled coils saw inventory accumulation and a decline in apparent consumption. The supply of five major steel products increased by 94,700 tons month - on - month, and the daily average pig - iron output of 247 steel mills remained above 2.4 million tons. The logic of squeezing steel mill profits may continue, and the steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range before the holiday [5]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Before the holiday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore were strong. The daily average pig - iron output of blast furnaces remained above 2.4 million tons, and ore demand was still strong. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 2.48 million tons month - on - month before the holiday, while the arrival volume increased by 3.127 million tons, and the overall supply remained high. The port inventory of iron ore increased by 1.69 million tons throughout the week. Although the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has intensified, considering that the proportion of profitable steel mills is still above 56%, the probability of actual negative feedback being triggered in the short term is not high. The iron ore price should be treated with an interval - oscillation idea in the short term, and there is a risk of negative feedback from late October to November [6]. 3.3.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Before the holiday, the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell slightly. The downstream steel mills' centralized procurement in September was basically completed, and with the approaching of the October tender, the downstream demand is expected to improve. The silicon iron and silicon manganese futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [7]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash - Before the holiday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated weakly. The supply is still in the capacity - release period, maintaining a loose pattern with pressure. In the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, demand increased month - on - month. Currently, it is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and it will mainly fluctuate widely in the short - term range. In the long - term, the supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing the price, and a bearish view should be taken [8]. 3.3.5 Glass - Before the holiday, the main contract of glass fluctuated within a range. After the release of the "Building Materials Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", the glass price formed a bottom support. Fundamentally, the supply remained stable, and in the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, demand improved marginally, and the mid - and downstream carried out phased restocking. The overall supply - demand situation of glass has improved, and it is advisable to be long in the short term [8]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.4.1 Copper - During the holiday, LME copper rose due to concerns about the tight global copper - mine supply. The Grasberg mining area had an accident, affecting a production volume of 270,000 tons. It is expected to resume production in 2026 and fully return to normal in 2027. The domestic electrolytic copper production remained at a high level, with a year - on - year increase of 11.62% in September. The demand faced challenges as the factors boosting demand weakened. The recent copper inventory reduction was less than expected. Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the US economic situation, which is in a slow - down trend [9]. 3.4.2 Aluminum - Before the holiday, downstream restocking and the decline in aluminum prices stimulated downstream restocking, resulting in a reduction of nearly 50,000 tons in the weekly social inventory of aluminum. It is expected that inventory will accumulate during the holiday. Currently, the aluminum supply is rigid, with domestic production and imports at historical highs, while demand weakened marginally. The year - on - year growth rate of apparent demand in September dropped from 5% - 6% in the second quarter to - 0.7%. If deduced, even if there is inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, the speed and amplitude will be low, which will restrict the upside space of aluminum prices. LME aluminum rose mainly driven by the increase in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 21,300 yuan/ton for SHFE aluminum [9]. 3.4.3 Tin - During the holiday, LME tin soared, driven by the increase in copper prices and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin - mine exploitation. However, the impact of Indonesia's policy is limited, so the upward height is expected to be restricted. The tin price has support below due to the tightness in the mining end and the maintenance of large - scale smelters in Yunnan, resulting in a low smelting start - up rate. However, the smelter maintenance is short - term, and they will resume production in October, with the start - up rate expected to rise. The mining end will also loosen in the long run. It is expected that the price will remain in high - level oscillation in the short term, and the maintenance expectation and peak - season expectation will still support the price, but the upside space will still be under pressure [10]. 3.4.4 Lithium Carbonate - In September, the lithium carbonate output was 87,260 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with weekly production reaching a new high. Driven by energy storage, the demand in the peak season is strong, and the social inventory is slightly decreasing. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the downside space is limited. The market will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the driving force of anti - involution policies [10]. 3.4.5 Industrial Silicon - In September, the industrial silicon output was 412,031 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month increase of 8.3%. The latest social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,700 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month. The weekly production remained at a high level, but there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. There is no obvious driving force for industrial silicon, and the market should be regarded as oscillating within a range. Attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [10]. 3.4.6 Polysilicon - In September, the polysilicon output was 140,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a start - up rate of 47.28%. The latest weekly inventory was 273,800 tons, remaining at a high level. The number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. The situation of high supply and low demand persists, and attention should be paid to the support of the spot price while waiting for the further implementation of the stockpiling news [10]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Crude Oil - EIA data showed that the US domestic oil product inventory decreased, and the distillate inventory had the largest decline since late June, while the Cushing inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. However, OPEC+ is increasing production, the US is expected to set a production record, and Russia's exports are approaching a 16 - month high. The bearish outlook from this year to next year is still strong. Later, demand will gradually enter the off - season, and the overall surplus risk will gradually increase. The short - term spot still has some support, and it may maintain an interval - oscillation pattern under geopolitical risks [11]. 3.5.2 Asphalt - The oil price rebounded from the bottom, driving the asphalt price to rebound. However, the peak - season demand is gradually passing, and the surplus pressure remains. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and the social inventory has not been significantly reduced, while the factory inventory has only been slightly reduced. The profit has recovered slightly recently, and the start - up rate has increased significantly. Later, the oil price will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When the asphalt inventory continues to be reduced limitedly, attention should be paid to the extent of its following the oil - price increase [11]. 3.5.3 PX - During the holiday, the change in PX was generally limited. It is expected to continue to oscillate following the polyester sector after the opening, and the crude - oil cost pricing support still exists. The small positive impact brought by the previous low - level start - up of devices and the increase in maintenance plans has basically been priced in. The PXN spread has recently decreased slightly to $218, and the PX outer - market price has fallen to $804. The short - term processing fee of PTA has been significantly squeezed. PX is still in a tight pattern, but the recent decline in the polyester sector as a whole may lead to a weak - oscillation trend, with some support below [13]. 3.5.4 PTA - The peak - season demand was still below expectations, terminal orders were sluggish, and the start - up rates of looms were still lower than in previous years. The reduction and shutdown of leading PTA manufacturers under low processing fees were disproven, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation later. Later, the restart of maintenance devices may be delayed. There is still some support at the previous low. However, in the short term, with a large increase in short positions by funds, if the crude - oil price does not fluctuate significantly, the futures price still has long - term downward pressure [13]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol price maintained low - level oscillation. The downstream demand faces similar problems as PTA. Coupled with the currently high start - up rate and the pressure of new production capacity, although the current inventory is already low, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation later, and the medium - term rebound height is limited. It is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the near future [13]. 3.5.6 Short - fiber - Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector and is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the near future. Terminal orders have increased seasonally but with a limited amplitude. The increase in the short - fiber start - up rate has led to limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory reduction requires the continuous improvement of terminal orders to drive the increase in the start - up rate. Currently, the subsequent upside space may be limited. In the medium term, short - fiber should follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies [13]. 3.5.7 Methanol - The inland methanol market oscillated narrowly. After the holiday, methanol inventory accumulated, and the high port inventory suppressed the price. There is no effective inventory - reduction path in the short term, but supported by the expectation of domestic and foreign gas restrictions, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait for the opportunity to lay out long positions in the medium - to - long term [13]. 3.5.8 PP - The market price slightly recovered. The supply - side pressure of PP is prominent, downstream demand is average, inventory pressure is gradually increasing, and coupled with the weak crude - oil price, the price is expected to be under pressure [13]. 3.5.9 LLDPE - The LLDPE market price increased slightly. Supply increased, and it is the peak - demand season. The short - term supply - demand situation is okay, but inventory accumulation after the holiday will have some suppression on the price. With the commissioning of devices, the transition to the off - season of demand, and the downward shift of the crude - oil price center, it is expected that there is still room for the PE price to fall [13]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT market closed at 1012.00, up 3.00 or 0.30% (settlement price 1012.25). After the holiday, the market may re - evaluate the possibility of China resuming soybean imports from the US. If a phased arrangement is reached in the following weeks, the possibility of resuming soybean trade will increase. In addition, if the MFP plan is implemented, it will reduce farmers' grain - holding costs, relieve the pressure of grain sales and storage, and be beneficial to CBOT soybeans [14]. 3.6.2 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The expected gap in the domestic soybean supply - demand in the first quarter of next year will shrink, which is bearish for soybean meal. In the short term, the short - term restocking of soybean meal may increase, and as the pressure of the concentrated listing of US soybeans eases and remains stable, the cost support for the near - month soybean meal is also expected to strengthen. However, as the risk of the far - month gap decreases, the spread between months may widen. For rapeseed meal, the import of rapeseed meal has shrunk significantly due to seasonal impacts, and domestic rapeseed inventory is exhausted. Before the supplementary import of Australian rapeseed arrives at the port, the supply - demand of rapeseed meal is weak, and soybean meal dominates its main market [14]. 3.6.3 Oils - Oils may oscillate strongly, with rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. Before the supplementary import of Australian rapeseed arrives at the port, the accelerating reduction of rapeseed oil inventory will form support; palm oil is cost - dominated, with low inventory in the producing areas, stable crude - oil prices, and the strength of related oils providing additional support; soybean oil may have phased inventory accumulation due to the post - holiday demand gap, and the price may be relatively weak [15]. 3.6.4 Corn - During the holiday, the corn market in Northeast China continued to decline. After the holiday, the space for a further slight decline in the new corn in the Northeast may be limited. On the one hand, the increase in the corn price in Shandong provides support, as deep - processing enterprises unexpectedly raised prices during the holiday, the number of arriving vehicles decreased, and the acquisition demand increased; on the other hand, more acquisition entities will start to enter the market to purchase grain after the holiday. In addition, the wheat price rebounded rapidly in October. Although the wheat purchase at the support price has ended, the supply pressure of wheat has significantly decreased due to the previous accelerated grain sales. It is expected that the wheat price will continue to rise after the holiday, which will also provide support for the corn market [15]. 3.6.5 Pigs - During the holiday, the pig price continued to decline. After the holiday, demand will weaken, and the supply - demand pressure remains high. Attention should be paid to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices, local pork stockpiling dynamics, and the rhythm of passive production reduction [15].

行 业 研 究 东 海 观 察 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年10月8日 2025十一假期期间重要消息及解读 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 宏观金融：美国经济数据不及预期提振降息预期，全球风险偏好升温 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 【国内宏观】 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 1、十一假期出行节奏有所前移，但出行强度不及五一假期。2025 年十一假期第 1-5 日，全社会跨区域日均人流量同比 4.9%，较五一假期回落 3.1pct。从节奏 看，假期前 3-5 天(9 月 26 日-28 日，周五-周日)人流出行强度达到阶段性高位， 全国迁徙指数同比 14.5%、超过假期第 1-4 日(1.2%)；但假期前与假期内结合 看，十一假期出行强度仍弱于五一。 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In September, due to the traditional peak season, corporate production and business activities accelerated. The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.8%, 50%, and 50.6% respectively, showing an overall recovery and indicating that China's economic output remained in an expansion phase. However, there were still weaknesses in investment, and consumption growth slowed down. Exports maintained resilience but might slow down in the future. Overall, demand improved, production accelerated, and prices showed different trends [2] - The demand side saw short - term acceleration in external demand and short - term recovery but still weak internal demand. In production, industrial production accelerated significantly in September and was expected to slow down but continue to grow at a relatively high rate in the fourth quarter. Prices of domestic and foreign demand - type commodities showed different trends [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, better than the expected 49.7% and up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing market demand improved, with the new order index rising 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%. Production expanded faster, with the production index rising 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%. Both external and internal demand in foreign trade increased, with the new export order index and import index rising 0.6% and 0.1% respectively [3] - Manufacturing market prices dropped slightly. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index decreased by 0.1 and 0.9 percentage points respectively. Industrial production accelerated, but investment demand in infrastructure and real estate was weak. Domestic "anti - involution" policies supported domestic - demand commodities, and international commodity prices rebounded [3][4] - Both the finished - product inventory and raw material inventory increased. The finished - product inventory index rose 1.4 percentage points to 48.2%, and the raw material inventory index rose 0.5 percentage points to 48.5%. Enterprises actively replenished raw material inventory and passively replenished finished - product inventory [4] Non - manufacturing - In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The service industry remained in the expansion range, with some industries in a high - level boom range and others falling below the critical point due to the end of the summer vacation effect. The construction industry's business activity index rose 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, and its market expectation improved [5] Composite - In September, the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities continued to accelerate [5]