Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US President's tariff announcements have increased risk aversion, and the Fed may delay rate cuts, causing the US dollar to rebound and global risk appetite to decline. Domestically, China's June PMI continued to rise, and policies to boost employment are expected to lift domestic risk appetite, but external risks need attention. [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, bonds to be volatile at high levels, and different commodity sectors have different trends. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Overall situation**: Overseas risk aversion is rising due to tariff threats, and the Fed may delay rate cuts. Domestically, economic growth is accelerating, and policies are favorable, but external risks should be noted. [2] - **Asset suggestions**: Stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, with cautious long positions; bonds are volatile at high levels, with cautious observation; different commodity sectors have different trends, with cautious long or observation positions. [2] Stock Index - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as rare earth permanent magnets, metals, and securities, the domestic stock market rose slightly. [3] - **Fundamentals and policies**: China's June PMI continued to rise, and policies to boost employment are favorable, but external risks need attention. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations, and the upward macro - drive has weakened. [3] - **Operation suggestions**: Cautious long positions in the short - term. [3] Precious Metals - **Market performance**: Last week, precious metals were volatile at high levels, with gold at 773.56 yuan/gram and silver at 9040 yuan/kg. [3] - **Influencing factors**: Trump's tariff threats supported precious metals, but the US dollar's rebound and rising bond yields limited the increase. The Fed's internal differences increased gold's volatility, and silver was relatively strong due to the resonance of non - ferrous metals. [3][4] - **Outlook**: The long - term support for precious metals remains solid. This week, focus on US CPI data and Fed officials' speeches. [4] Black Metals Steel - **Market performance**: Last Friday, steel futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and trading volume was low. [5] - **Fundamentals**: Demand declined, with a 12.1 - million - ton drop in apparent consumption. Supply decreased, with a 12.4 - million - ton drop in output. Cost support was strong. [5] - **Outlook**: The steel market is expected to rebound in the short - term. [5] Iron Ore - **Market performance**: Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to rebound. [5] - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals weakened marginally, with a drop in molten iron production. Supply decreased after the end - of - quarter rush, and port inventories decreased. [5] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, with the macro - logic dominant. [5] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - **Market performance**: On Friday, the prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly. [6] - **Fundamentals**: The demand for ferroalloys decreased due to the drop in steel output. The prices of silicon manganese in different regions and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group changed. The inventory of silicon iron decreased slowly, and the Lanthanum charcoal market rose slightly. [6][7] - **Outlook**: The prices may rebound following coal prices in the short - term. [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - **Macro - situation**: The US's tariff threats on 25 countries have raised concerns, but the implementation time is uncertain, which will affect copper prices. [8] - **Outlook**: If tariffs are implemented before August 1, copper prices will weaken; otherwise, the price may be supported. [8] Aluminum - **Market situation**: Affected by the news of urban renewal, the news needs verification. The fundamentals have weakened, but the short - term decline is limited, and it is expected to be volatile. [8] Aluminum Alloy - **Market situation**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased, leading to losses for some enterprises. It is in the off - season, with weak demand. [8] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the upside is limited. [8] Tin - **Supply**: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has rebounded, but it is still at a low level due to low processing fees. The supply reduction is lower than expected, and the supply of ore is relatively loose. [9][10] - **Demand**: Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly. [10] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and the upside is limited in the medium - term. [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Market performance**: Last Friday, the contract price rose slightly, and the spot price also increased. The production increased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. [11] - **Outlook**: It is expected to be slightly stronger, affected by the policy, and attention should be paid to macro - disturbances. [11] Industrial Silicon - **Market performance**: The price rose significantly last week, with an increase in production and the number of open furnaces. [12] - **Outlook**: It is expected to be slightly stronger, affected by the "anti - involution" theme. [12] Polysilicon - **Market performance**: The contract price rose last week, and the spot price increased significantly. The supply is stable at a low level, and the downstream prices have changed. [12][13] - **Outlook**: Affected by policy news, the expectation is strong, and cautious long positions can be considered. [13] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Supply and demand**: Although OPEC+ increased production, the short - term demand is good, and the inventory is low. The risk of US sanctions on Russia exists. [14] - **Outlook**: The price will be supported in the short - term. [14] Asphalt - **Market situation**: The price is volatile with the oil price. The shipment has decreased, the factory inventory is accumulating, and the demand in the peak season is average. [14] - **Outlook**: It will follow the oil price but be slightly weaker. [14] PX - **Market situation**: The upstream profit has decreased, and the price is at a low level. The downstream PTA's operation has increased, and the price is supported. [14] - **Outlook**: It will be slightly weaker in the short - term, but the downward drive is limited. [14] PTA - **Market situation**: The spot liquidity has improved, the basis and monthly spread have decreased. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. [15] - **Outlook**: The upward space is limited in the short - term, but there may be support at a low level later. [15] Ethylene Glycol - **Market situation**: The port inventory has increased, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. [16] - **Outlook**: It will be weaker in the short - term. [16] Short - fiber - **Market situation**: The price has decreased slightly, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, the inventory is high, and the cost support is weakening. [16] - **Outlook**: It will be weaker in the medium - term. [16] Methanol - **Market situation**: The inventory has increased, and the fundamentals have deteriorated on the spot side, but the futures have rebounded. [16] - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to be volatile, and the 01 contract can be considered for long positions. [16] PP - **Market situation**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. [16] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to decline. [16] LLDPE - **Market situation**: The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. [17] - **Outlook**: It may rebound in the short - term, but the upside is limited, and the price may decline in the long - term. [17] Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **USDA report**: The report maintained the yield and production expectations, but increased the expected inventory and lowered the price. [18][19] - **Outlook**: The market is neutral to bearish, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations. [19] Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - **Market situation**: The cost of imported soybeans may be weak, which will drag down soybean meal. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has decreased, and the consumption of rapeseed meal is far from expected. [19] - **Outlook**: The upward space for soybean meal in the 09 contract is limited, and the price of rapeseed meal is under pressure. [19] Oils - **USDA report**: The report has limited impact on the palm oil market. The inventory of palm oil in Malaysia has increased, and it is under pressure. [20] - **Domestic situation**: The inventory of palm oil has recovered, and the demand is weak. The supply of soybean oil is loose, and the supply of rapeseed oil is improving. [20] Corn - **Market situation**: Affected by wheat substitution and corn auctions, the market sentiment has cooled, and the downstream is cautious. [20][21] - **Outlook**: The price may rebound after over - decline, and short - selling should be cautious. [21] Pigs - **Market situation**: The supply from large farms has increased, and the price is under pressure. [21] - **Outlook**: The price may decline slightly in the short - term. [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed officials released dovish signals and proposed to relax supervision of large - scale banks, and US trade negotiations accelerated, leading to a rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies emphasized "anti - involution" and "stabilizing employment", which increased domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [3]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Overall Situation**: Overseas and domestic risk appetites are rising. In terms of assets, the stock index is expected to be short - term oscillating and strengthening, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are in a short - term high - level oscillation, and cautious observation is advised; in the commodity sector, black metals are in a short - term low - level oscillating rebound, non - ferrous metals are rising sharply in the short - term, energy - chemical products are in a short - term oscillating rebound, and precious metals are in a short - term high - level oscillation, all with short - term cautious long positions recommended [3]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as silicon energy, real estate, and coal, the domestic stock market rose. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro upward drive is weakening, and follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiation progress and domestic incremental policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold continued its high - level oscillation on Thursday. Trump's tariff announcement and the Fed's attitude towards interest rates affect the market. The US credit decline and geopolitical risks support gold in the medium - to - long - term, and tariff disturbances are the main short - term influencing factor [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded significantly on Thursday. There were many positive news about urban renewal. Real - world demand declined, with different trends in different varieties. Supply decreased due to the implementation of production - restriction policies, and cost support was strong. The steel market should be treated with a short - term rebound mindset [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded significantly on Thursday. Driven by improved macro expectations and real - estate market rumors, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, and follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly. Demand decreased, but prices may follow the rebound of coal prices in the short - term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the soda ash main contract was running strongly. Affected by the central government's signal on anti - involution, there are concerns about production capacity withdrawal. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance, demand was slightly increased but still at a low level, and profits decreased. It is expected to be short - term oscillating and strengthening [9]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the glass main contract price was running strongly. Affected by the anti - involution policy, there are expectations of production reduction. Supply slightly increased, demand was weak, and profits were still at a low level. Supply - side production reduction expectations are expected to support prices [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Trump's proposed 50% tariff on copper imports to the US affects the market. The key to future copper price trends lies in the tariff implementation time [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum rose significantly on Thursday, affected by urban renewal news. The fundamentals are weakening, and it is expected to be short - term oscillating [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it is in the demand off - season. Considering cost support, the price is expected to be short - term oscillating and strengthening, but the upward space is limited [12]. - **Tin**: Supply has recovered, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be short - term oscillating, and the upward space will be restricted in the medium - term [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate decreased slightly on Thursday. The supply side has a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon decreased in position on Thursday. Affected by policies, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon continued to rise significantly on Thursday. Affected by policies, the expectations of industrial silicon and polysilicon are strong. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [14][15]. Energy - Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Global trade wars and OPEC+ production - increase suspension discussions led to a significant decline in oil prices on Thursday. Oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate within a range in the short - term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are running at a low level, and asphalt prices are oscillating. Follow - up attention should be paid to inventory reduction [16]. - **PX**: Crude oil is oscillating, and PX is oscillating in a neutral price range. The weakening trend of PX may be slower than that of downstream products [16]. - **PTA**: The liquidity of the spot market has improved, and downstream开工 has decreased. PTA prices are expected to have some downward space [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has decreased, but downstream开工 is decreasing. It is expected to continue to build a bottom and follow the polyester sector to run weakly [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber is following the polyester sector to run weakly. Follow - up attention should be paid to inventory reduction [17]. - **Methanol**: The futures of methanol are oscillating upward. The supply - demand expectation has deteriorated, and short - selling opportunities should be noted [18][19]. - **PP**: The futures of PP are running strongly, but the supply - demand imbalance is prominent. The price is expected to decline further in the medium - to - long - term, and the short - term rebound space is limited [19]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE has risen. Supply is high, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure in the medium - to - long - term. It can be used as a short - selling variety [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans rose overnight. The key to the market is the weather during the 7 - 8 key growth period. The current weather is favorable for growth, and the market has a high expectation of a bumper harvest [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are affected by bio - diesel policies and export conditions. Domestic soybean meal has relatively strong support. The supply pressure of domestic imported soybeans is difficult to relieve. Rapeseed meal is mainly concerned with Sino - Canadian trade policies [22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil inventory is high, and soybean oil supply is stable. They are affected by palm oil in the short - term, and there is a risk of a phased increase in the price difference [22]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil inventory reached an 18 - month high at the end of June. The export volume increased in early July [23]. - **Corn**: The auction success rate of imported corn has decreased, and there is a risk of rice auction in August, which may impact the corn market [23]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs in July is expected to decrease. The cost of secondary fattening has increased, and the concentrated出栏 of large - weight pigs in July and August will limit the increase in pig prices [24].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Globally, the risk appetite has increased due to the hope of US interest - rate cuts despite tariff - related inflation concerns, and domestically, the economic growth has accelerated with improved market sentiment [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions: stocks are expected to be short - term bullish with caution; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; commodities in different sectors have various trends, and most are recommended for short - term cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US has imposed tariffs on seven countries, increasing short - term tariff risks, but the Fed's meeting minutes have raised hopes of interest - rate cuts this year, boosting global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies such as "anti - involution" and "stabilizing employment" have improved domestic risk appetite. The RMB exchange rate has appreciated, and the domestic market sentiment has continued to warm up [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks are expected to be short - term bullish with caution; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; commodities in different sectors have various trends, and most are recommended for short - term cautious long positions [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as insurance, CSSC, and metals. However, the economic fundamentals are improving, and market sentiment is warming up. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver continued to fluctuate. The delay of the tariff deadline and the conclusion of trade agreements by some countries have led to an optimistic market outlook. The rise of the US dollar and the Fed's attitude towards interest - rate cuts have put pressure on precious metals. However, gold has long - term support, and tariff disturbances will be the main short - term influencing factor, with expected increased short - term volatility [4]. 3.4 Black Metals 3.4.1 Steel - The steel market rebounded slightly, but the trading volume was low. The "anti - involution" initiative is expanding. The real demand is weakening, the inventory is rising, and the supply is affected by production - restriction policies. The cost support is strong, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. 3.4.2 Iron Ore - The price of iron ore rebounded slightly, mainly driven by the macro - logic. The fundamentals are weakening, and the impact of production - restriction policies needs to be further observed. The price is expected to be bullish in the short term, but there is a risk of a supplementary decline if the iron - water output continues to fall [6]. 3.4.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has decreased, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. 3.5 Chemicals 3.5.1 Soda Ash - The soda - ash futures price was bullish. The glass industry is expected to cut production, which has led to concerns about soda - ash production capacity withdrawal. The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, and the demand is still at a low level. In the long term, it is recommended to short, but there may be short - term support [8]. 3.5.2 Glass - The glass futures price was bullish. The market expects production cuts due to the "anti - involution" policy. The supply is expected to decrease, which may support the price, but the demand from the real - estate industry is still weak [9][10]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.6.1 Copper - Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper. The implementation time is uncertain. If it is implemented before August 1st, the copper price will continue to fall; otherwise, the price may be supported [11]. 3.6.2 Aluminum - The PMI of the aluminum - processing industry in June decreased, and the fundamentals have weakened. The inventory has increased, but the short - term downward momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. 3.6.3 Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. However, the tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the price. The price is expected to be bullish in the short term, but the upward space is limited [12]. 3.6.4 Tin - The supply has increased, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upward space will be restricted in the medium term [12]. 3.6.5 Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The supply is in a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. The cost support is strong, and it is expected to be bullish [13]. 3.6.6 Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The production decreased last week, and it is expected to be bullish due to the "anti - involution" policy [13]. 3.6.7 Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon increased significantly. The price of the spot and downstream products also increased. It is expected to be bullish in the short term, but attention should be paid to market feedback and capital changes [14]. 3.7 Energy and Chemicals 3.7.1 Crude Oil - The EIA data showed that the crude - oil inventory increased significantly last week, and the US imposed sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The market is testing the $70 level, and there is pressure at high levels [15]. 3.7.2 Asphalt - The asphalt price is stable, following the trend of crude oil. The shipment volume has decreased, the inventory is decreasing slowly, and the demand is approaching the peak season. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [15]. 3.7.3 PX - The PX price has weakened, and the PXN spread has narrowed. The PTA's increased production will support PX, but the weakening PTA price may drag it down. The weakening trend of PX may be slower than that of its downstream products [15]. 3.7.4 PTA - The PTA basis has weakened significantly, and there is an expectation of over - supply in the future. The price increased slightly due to the "anti - involution" logic, but there is a risk of a callback [16]. 3.7.5 Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol price increased slightly due to sector resonance. There is a risk of inventory accumulation after the increase in production, and the price may decline slightly in the future [16]. 3.7.6 Short - fiber - The short - fiber price fluctuated within a range, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, the inventory is high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium term [16]. 3.7.7 Methanol - The supply of methanol has decreased due to domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals, but the international supply is expected to increase. The price has rebounded slightly, but the upward space is limited, and short - selling opportunities should be noted [17]. 3.7.8 PP - The supply pressure of PP has been relieved due to maintenance and new - capacity release, but the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to decline further [17]. 3.7.9 LLDPE - The production of LLDPE has increased due to more device maintenance, but the demand is in the off - season. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and the price is under pressure [17]. 3.8 Agricultural Products 3.8.1 Palm Oil - The palm - oil futures price has risen for three consecutive days, reaching a three - month high, supported by the rise of Dalian edible - oil futures and the weakening of the ringgit. However, the weak Chicago soybean oil has limited its increase. The market expects the Malaysian palm - oil inventory in June to shrink, and the upward trend will be restricted by the long - term production increase and the pressure on crude oil [19]. 3.8.2 Corn - The auction turnover rate of imported corn has decreased, which has a certain negative impact on the market. The price in the Northeast region has decreased. There is a risk of rice auctions in August, which may impact the corn market [19][20]. 3.8.3 US Soybeans - The price of US soybeans decreased. The trade disputes may affect US soybean exports. The weather during the key growing period from July to August is crucial. The market has a high expectation of a bumper harvest [19]. 3.8.4 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans are affected by biodiesel policies and bumper harvests. The domestic soybean - meal supply is under pressure, and the rapeseed - meal is mainly focused on inventory digestion. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [19]. 3.8.5 Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed - oil inventory in ports is high and is slowly decreasing, supported by policy premiums. The soybean - oil supply is stable, but the terminal consumption is weak. The two oils are currently affected by palm oil, and there is a risk of a phased increase in the spread between soybean and palm oil [19]. 3.8.6 Pig - The large - scale pig - raising enterprises are not willing to increase the supply and reduce the weight of pigs. The supply in July is expected to decrease, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is a risk of a large - scale supply of second - fattened pigs from late July to late August, which will limit the rise of pig prices [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the US President's tariff plans increase short - term tariff risks, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and a decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's June PMI data continues to rise, economic growth accelerates, and policies boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Overall Situation**: Overseas tariff risks increase, the US dollar index and US bond yields rebound, and global risk appetite cools. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, policies boost risk appetite, and the domestic market sentiment warms up. Asset - wise, stocks are short - term bullish, bonds are high - level volatile, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors like photovoltaic equipment, semiconductor components, and energy metals, the domestic stock market rises. The short - term macro - upward drive weakens, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: They oscillate downward. The extension of Trump's tariff deadline, a strong US dollar, and changes in employment data affect the market. The "Big Beautiful Act" supports gold in the long - term, and tariff disturbances are the main short - term factor. Gold volatility is expected to rise [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continue to oscillate. Demand is weak, supply - side production shows some changes, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it will remain range - bound [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices rebound slightly. The implementation of production - restriction policies affects supply, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron production [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices fall slightly, and futures prices rebound. Demand is okay, but production may decline. The market is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [6]. Chemicals and Building Materials - **Soda Ash**: The main contract oscillates strongly. Supply decreases due to device maintenance, demand is at a low level, and profits decline. In the long - term, it should be short - allocated [7]. - **Glass**: The main contract price oscillates. Supply may decrease due to policy expectations, demand is weak, and profits are at a low level. Supply - side reduction expectations may support prices [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Trump's consideration of a 50% copper tariff affects prices. China's refined copper production increases, and inventory is in a good state [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to policy and market atmosphere. Fundamentals weaken, but short - term sharp decline needs macro - support [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the off - season, with weak demand. Tight scrap aluminum supply supports prices, and the price is expected to be oscillatingly strong with limited upside [10]. - **Tin**: Supply recovers, and demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and upside is restricted in the medium - term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rises slightly. Supply has a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality, and cost supports the price. It is expected to be oscillatingly strong [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is affected by policies and is expected to be oscillatingly strong. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the north [12]. - **Polysilicon**: Multiple contracts hit the daily limit due to anti - involution policies. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and trading margins and price limits are adjusted [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices rise due to the Red Sea attack and technical factors. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but inventory increases, and prices will be in a consolidation state [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price rises slightly following crude oil. Shipping volume decreases, and attention should be paid to the destocking situation in the peak season [15]. - **PX**: The strong trend weakens, and the PXN spread narrows. PTA's production recovery will support PX, and its weakening may be slower than downstream [15]. - **PTA**: The basis weakens, and trading volume recovers. The spot's impact on the futures is limited, and it will wait for cost support changes [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory accumulates, supply increases, and there may be a slight oversupply in August. Prices will remain low and oscillating [16]. - **Short - fiber**: The price moves in a range following crude oil. Terminal orders are average, inventory is high, and it will follow the polyester sector with weak oscillations [16]. - **Methanol**: Domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals support the spot, but international supply recovery and downstream maintenance plans change the supply - demand outlook. It rebounds slightly with limited upside [16]. - **PP**: Supply pressure eases, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to fall further [17]. - **LLDPE**: Production is high, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure with room for cost - profit compression [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price falls slightly. The planting area is determined, and weather in the growing season is crucial. Trade disputes may affect export demand [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Oil mills have high operating rates, and soybean meal supply is loose. Rapeseed meal focuses on inventory digestion and trade policies [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil inventory decreases slightly, and soybean oil supply is stable with weak consumption. They are affected by palm oil [19]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rises, and attention is paid to the BMD market and supply - demand reports. Export data is good, but production and oil prices limit the upside [19]. - **Corn**: Imported corn auctions and new wheat substitution increase supply, and futures prices are expected to weaken. However, the new - season opening price may rise [20]. - **Pigs**: Large - scale enterprises are reluctant to increase supply. Supply may decrease in July, and there is a risk of concentrated second - fattening supply in July - August, limiting price increases [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stocks: Short - term shock, biased towards strong operation, short - term cautious long [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term high - level shock, cautious observation [2] - Commodities: - Black: Short - term low - level shock rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous: Short - term shock correction, short - term cautious observation [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious observation [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level shock, cautious long [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date and imposed new tariffs on some countries, increasing short - term tariff risks and cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, the June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, sent letters to 14 countries about new tariffs (25% on Japan and South Korea), increasing short - term tariff risks, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated; domestic consumption policy stimulus increased, and the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized "anti - involution", which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets, RMB appreciation, and continued warming of domestic market sentiment led to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks short - term shock, biased towards strong; treasury bonds short - term high - level shock; black commodities short - term low - level shock rebound; non - ferrous short - term shock correction; energy and chemicals short - term shock; precious metals short - term high - level shock [2]. 3.2 Stocks - Driven by sectors such as CSSC, power, and cross - border payment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. The current trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward drivers weakened. Short - term cautious long [3]. 3.3 Precious metals - Trump's tariff announcements increased market risk - aversion sentiment, but the strengthening US dollar and better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data, as well as the Fed's cautious attitude, put pressure on precious metals. The "Big Beautiful Act" provides long - term support for gold. Tariff disturbances will be the main short - term influencing factor, and gold volatility is expected to rise [4]. 3.4 Black metals 3.4.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined slightly, and trading volume remained low. The focus shifted to tariff negotiations. Vietnam imposed anti - dumping tariffs on Chinese hot - rolled steel, and the off - season affected demand. Supply - side production decreased, but finished product output increased slightly. Cost support was strong. Short - term range - bound thinking [5][7]. 3.4.2 Iron ore - Iron ore spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron production decreased, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. After the end - of - quarter shipment peak, shipping volume decreased, and arrival volume increased slightly. If iron production continues to decline, ore prices may fall [7]. 3.4.3 Silicon manganese/silicon iron - Spot prices were flat. Demand for ferroalloys was okay due to the increase in steel output, but there was a possibility of a decline in finished product output. Manganese ore prices rose. The market was expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. 3.4.4 Soda ash - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the signal of "anti - involution" from the Central Financial and Economic Commission, there were concerns about production capacity withdrawal in the glass industry, which initially drove up the price, but then it fell due to the weak supply - demand situation. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance, demand increased slightly, and profit decreased. In the long run, supply remained loose, and it was not advisable to go long [9]. 3.4.5 Glass - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, there were expectations of production cuts in the glass industry, which drove up the price. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and profit was at a low level. Production - cut expectations on the supply side were expected to support prices [10]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and new energy 3.5.1 Copper - The market may fluctuate as the July 9th deadline approaches. The clarity of trade tariffs may help the market rise. China's refined copper production increased in 2025, and inventory was at a medium - low level due to high demand [11]. 3.5.2 Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell due to tariff concerns. LME inventory increased, and domestic inventory also increased slightly [11]. 3.5.3 Aluminum alloy - Entered the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Short - term shock, biased towards strong, but limited upside [11]. 3.5.4 Tin - Supply increased as the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded. Demand was weak in most sectors, and inventory increased. Short - term shock, but high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weakening demand would limit the upside in the medium term [12]. 3.5.5 Lithium carbonate - The main contract price fluctuated slightly. Supply faced a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. Cost support was strong. Viewed as shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.6 Industrial silicon - The main contract price was stable, and the spot price rebounded. Total production decreased due to reduced furnace - opening in the north. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.7 Polysilicon - The main contract price was strong, especially in the far - month contracts. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, expected to be strong, with high price elasticity [13][14]. 3.6 Energy and chemicals 3.6.1 Crude oil - Strong demand offset concerns about OPEC+ production increase and US tariffs. Short - term shock [15]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Oil prices were low, asphalt prices were in shock. Shipping volume decreased, factory inventory decreased slowly, and social inventory increased slightly. Followed crude oil at a high level [15]. 3.6.3 PX - After the decline in crude oil premium, the PX price weakened, and the PXN spread narrowed. PTA production recovery would support PX, and the weakening trend might slow down [15]. 3.6.4 PTA - Spot liquidity improved, inventory increased, and the basis and 9 - 1 spread weakened. Downstream operating rates continued to decline, and PTA prices had room to fall [16]. 3.6.5 Ethylene glycol - Port inventory decreased, supply pressure weakened, but downstream demand limited further inventory reduction. Short - term bottom - building, followed the polyester sector weakly [16]. 3.6.6 Short - fiber - Crude oil price decline drove down short - fiber prices. It followed the polyester sector, with weak terminal orders and high inventory. It would be in a weak shock pattern in the medium term [16]. 3.6.7 Methanol - Domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals provided short - term support, but international production recovery and expected downstream maintenance led to a poor supply - demand outlook. It rebounded slightly under policy influence, with limited upside [16]. 3.6.8 PP - Production - restriction and new capacity coexisted, supply pressure eased slightly. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and oil prices were weak. Prices were expected to fall further [17]. 3.6.9 LLDPE - Equipment maintenance increased, but production was still high year - on - year. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase. Prices were under pressure [17]. 3.7 Agricultural products 3.7.1 Palm oil - As of July 4, 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in June, exports increased, and inventory was expected to decrease. Concerns about the US EPA hearing [19]. 3.7.2 Corn - Imported corn auctions and new wheat substitution increased supply, and futures prices were expected to weaken. However, it was difficult for futures to trade at a discount. The expected import volume was not expected to affect the new - season market, but there were concerns about pests and diseases [19][21]. 3.7.3 US soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans fell. The planting area was determined, and weather in the 7 - 8 key growth period was crucial. The current growing environment was good, but the risk of tariff implementation increased export uncertainty [20]. 3.7.4 Soybean and rapeseed meal - Soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Oil mills had high operating rates, and supply was abundant. The supply pressure in the 09 contract period was difficult to relieve, but short - term stability in US soybeans provided some support [20]. 3.7.5 Soybean and rapeseed oil - Soybean oil production decreased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil was supported by policies and the international market, and soybean oil inventory increased. They lacked an independent market and were affected by palm oil [20]. 3.7.6 Pigs - Leading enterprises had low willingness to increase sales volume and reduce weight. Supply in July was expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea in spring. There was a weak supply - demand situation, and the expected profit in the 8 - 9 peak season was low. Second - fattening was cautious, and the concentrated supply at the end of July and August would limit price increases [21].

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The expiration of the tariff suspension period has cooled global risk appetite. The US tax - cut bill has been passed, and countries face pressure to reach trade agreements with the US, leading to a slight decline in the US dollar index. In China, the PMI data in June continued to rise, and domestic consumption policies and the "anti - involution" emphasis have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets and the appreciation of the RMB have also improved market sentiment [2]. - The overall view on asset classes is that the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with cautious long positions recommended; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with cautious observation recommended; in the commodity sector, black metals are expected to rebound from low - level fluctuations, with cautious long positions; non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate strongly, with cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are expected to fluctuate, with cautious observation; precious metals are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with cautious long positions [2]. Group 2: Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as cross - border payment, gaming, and banking, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The recovery of China's June PMI data, strengthened domestic consumption policies, and the "anti - involution" emphasis have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets and RMB appreciation have also improved market sentiment. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward momentum has increased. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals - The precious metals market oscillated last week. With the Middle - East cease - fire agreement, the focus shifted to the Russia - Ukraine war, and overall risk cooled in the short term. The approaching tariff deadline and the US - Vietnam agreement have increased optimistic tariff expectations. However, trade negotiations between the US and other countries are still ongoing. The better - than - expected non - farm data has cooled the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the rebound of US bond yields has suppressed gold prices. The "Big Beautiful Act" will increase debt pressure, providing long - term support for gold. The tariff negotiation situation will be the main short - term influencing factor, and the volatility of gold is expected to rise in the short term [5]. Group 4: Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly last Friday, but trading volume remained low. Overseas, tariff policies need attention; domestically, the "anti - involution" policy is a factor. The news of Tangshan's production restrictions led to a rebound in the futures market, increasing speculative demand, but the off - season still affected terminal demand. On the supply side, the impact of production - restriction policies emerged, with a 1.44 - million - ton week - on - week decline in hot - metal production, while the output of finished products still increased slightly. Cost support remained strong. The steel market is expected to be strong in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - The spot price of iron ore was flat last Friday, and the futures price rebounded slightly. Hot - metal production decreased by 1.44 million tons last week after two consecutive weeks of rebound, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. The implementation of production - restriction policies needs further attention. In terms of supply, the shipping volume decreased by 149 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 178 million tons. Although the second and third quarters are the peak shipping seasons, the shipping volume may decline after the end - of - quarter rush. The port inventory increased by 46.67 million tons. Iron ore is expected to be strong in the short term due to macro factors but may decline in the medium term [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat last Friday. The output of five major steel products increased, and the demand for ferroalloys was fair. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market was 5480 - 5530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded slightly, driving up the spot price of manganese ore. The start - up rate of silicon manganese enterprises increased by 1.13% to 40.34%, and the daily output increased by 125 tons. The inventory of silicon iron enterprises is being depleted slowly, and prices are expected to adjust narrowly in the short term. The silicon iron and silicon manganese markets are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7][8]. Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Tariff news is uncertain. Although Trump threatened higher tariffs, it may be a negotiation strategy. The US is likely to impose at least a 10% tariff in the long run. The non - farm data was better than expected, but the private - sector employment slowed, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts cooled. In 2025, China's refined copper output continued to increase. From January to May, the copper output reached 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. After excluding sample expansion, the increase was still 6.7%. Despite high production, the copper inventory is in good condition, at a relatively low level [9]. Aluminum - The aluminum price fell slightly last Friday, affected by the overall decline in commodities. The weighted open interest of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 7654 lots. The LME inventory continued to increase. Domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods started to accumulate inventory, indicating the end of the de - stocking phase. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase, following the seasonal trend. The warehouse receipts increased significantly [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The industry has entered the off - season, with weak growth in manufacturing orders. However, the tight supply of scrap aluminum has supported the price of cast aluminum alloy from the cost side. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand [9]. Tin - On the supply side, the combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 7.13% for two consecutive weeks, although still at a relatively low level. The supply from Myanmar's Wa State is becoming more relaxed. On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry, an important downstream of tin solder, is in the off - season, with a decrease in orders. The demand for lead - acid batteries is weak, and the demand for tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals is stable. As the tin price rises, the downstream is hesitant to buy, and the inventory increased by 658 tons this week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside will be restricted in the medium term due to high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and declining demand [10][11]. Lithium Carbonate - On the supply side, there is a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. The "anti - involution" policy has boosted the macro - sentiment, and the price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated strongly. The price of lithium ore has rebounded significantly, but the production of lithium carbonate remains high due to reduced smelting losses. On the demand side, the output of power cells decreased in June, but the output of energy - storage cells increased significantly. In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and batteries increased. The current price is close to the cost of mica - integrated production, providing strong cost support [11]. Industrial Silicon - There are short - term positive impacts, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. The start - up rate in the southwest increased last week, but the number of open furnaces in the north decreased, leading to a decline in weekly output. The "anti - involution" theme has boosted expectations [11]. Polysilicon - It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, driven by the production cut of industrial silicon and the "anti - involution" theme. Due to high industry concentration, the price has greater elasticity. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and the prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continue to decline [12]. Group 6: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ has unexpectedly increased daily production by 548,000 barrels, and with continued production growth in South America in the second half of the year, the downward trend of oil prices is more certain. Although the short - term spot price has not been clearly affected by over - supply, it may be supported in the short term, but refinery profits may be affected after the peak - season profit period, and purchasing willingness may decline [13]. Asphalt - The oil price is running at a low level, and the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the factory inventory is being depleted slowly. The basis has rebounded, and the social inventory has limited accumulation. As the demand approaches the peak season, the inventory depletion situation needs to be monitored. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following the oil price in the short term [14]. PX - After the premium of crude oil was reversed, the strong trend of PX changed, and the overseas price weakened to $840. The PXN spread reached $250, and the industry profit declined significantly. The recovery of PTA's start - up rate will provide some support for PX, and the weakening trend of PX may be slower than that of its downstream [14]. PTA - The tightness of the spot market has been significantly relieved, the port inventory has increased, and the basis has declined. The downstream start - up rate has continued to decline to 90.2%. There is still room for the downstream start - up rate to decline, and with the downward trend of crude oil prices due to production increases, the PTA price still has some downward space [14]. Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory has been depleted to 540,000 tons. The overall start - up rate has declined, reducing supply pressure. However, the continuous decline of the downstream start - up rate will restrict further inventory depletion. The factory inventory is still being depleted steadily. It is expected to bottom out and follow the polyester sector to operate weakly in the short term [14]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a callback in the short - fiber price. It generally follows the polyester sector to fluctuate strongly. Terminal orders are still average, and the start - up rate continues to decline. The inventory of short - fiber remains high, and inventory depletion needs to wait until the peak - season demand in late July. With the weakening cost support, it will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern following the polyester sector in the medium term [15]. Methanol - There are maintenance activities in the inland area, and the arrival volume has decreased. Downstream olefins have maintenance plans. Before the implementation of maintenance, the spot price has some support. The international start - up rate has increased significantly, and the import expectation has risen again, and the supply - demand situation is expected to worsen. It has rebounded slightly under policy disturbances, but the upside is limited, and short - selling opportunities should be monitored [15]. PP - There are both maintenance and new - capacity releases, slightly relieving the supply pressure. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand continues to decline. The crude oil price fluctuates weakly, and the profit of oil - based production is fair. The supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the price is expected to decline further after the new - capacity release [16][17]. LLDPE - The number of device maintenance has increased, but the overall output is higher than the same period last year. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand continues to weaken. The balance sheet shows an expected inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure. There is still room for cost - profit compression [18]. Group 7: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The pricing of the US soybean planting area is settled, and the weather during the key growing period from July to August is crucial. The current hot and humid environment in the US soybean - growing areas is conducive to crop growth, and the probability of extreme drought is low. The market's expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the yield per unit in the July USDA supply - demand report. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US has supported the US soybean market. The export expectation has improved with positive trade news between China and the US, and the balance - sheet pressure has been further reduced. The CBOT soybean is expected to remain in a stable range [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The high - start - up rate of oil mills has maintained a stable supply of soybean meal, and the market sentiment is weak. The average monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from July to September in China may be around 1.1 million tons, and the supply pressure is difficult to relieve within the 09 - contract period. The short - term stable trend of US soybeans provides some support. The positive news of China - US soybean trade has limited impact on the upward movement of futures prices. In the fourth quarter, the import premium of soybeans and the basis of domestic soybean meal are expected to remain weak. The upward space of soybean meal within the 09 - contract period is limited [20]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US has extended the clean - fuel production tax credit to 2029, which is beneficial to US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil. In China, the rapeseed oil port inventory is high, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The soybean oil inventory is accelerating its recovery, and the risk of inventory accumulation is increasing. The domestic soybean and rapeseed oil markets lack independent market - moving factors in the short term and are affected by palm oil. The soybean - palm oil price remains inverted [20][21]. Palm Oil - OPEC+'s planned production increase in August may put pressure on the oil peak season, limiting the boost to international oils. In Malaysia, the production in June decreased by about 4% month - on - month, and the export may increase by 4% - 6% month - on - month. The inventory may shrink to less than 2 million tons. The positive export data in July has boosted market sentiment, but the long - term production increase and the pressure on oil prices are the main limiting factors. In China, the palm oil storage has increased, and the basis is weak. The import profit is in an inverted state, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound and strong trend [21]. Corn - The grassroots price of corn is firm, and the basis is strong. The auction of imported corn had a slightly high premium and good transactions, with limited impact on the production area. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and there are more shutdowns for maintenance during the off - season. Feed enterprises are using more wheat as a substitute for corn, putting pressure on the corn price in Shandong. In July, the import of corn and the substitution of wheat may affect the futures price negatively. After the seasonal substitution of wheat for feed consumption in August - September, the postponed demand will return, and the corn price is likely to rise [22]. Pork - Leading enterprises have a low willingness to increase production and reduce weight for export. The supply in July is expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea during the Spring Festival. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the profit expectation for the peak season in August - September is low. The cost of secondary fattening has increased significantly, and the willingness to restock is low. A large - scale concentrated supply of second - fattened pigs is expected in late July and late August, which will limit the upward space of pig prices. The spot price has decreased, and the futures price is expected to decline slightly in the next period [22].

2025年7月4日 研究所晨会观点精萃 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 ...

分[析Ta师ble_Report] 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年7月2日 研究所晨会观点精萃 贾利军 宏观金融：贸易协议面临不确定性，避险情绪有所升温 【宏观】 海外方面，鲍威尔重申美联储在降息前需等待更多数据，未排除 7 月行 动可能性，表态略微偏鸽，但数据显示劳动力市场需求的增长好于预期，美元指 数下跌后反弹；此外，虽然美国总统称美国或与印度达成贸易协议，但威胁对日 本征收更高关税，市场权衡了美国贸易协议的不确定性和美国税收法案的情况， 全球风险偏好有所降温。国内方面，中国 6 月份制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，比上月上 升 0.2 个百分点，经济增长有所加快；政策方面，国内消费政策刺激加强，短期 有助于提振国内风险偏好；且短期国外市场回暖以及人民币汇率升值，国内市场 情绪回暖，国内风险有所升温。资产上：股指短期震荡反弹，短期谨慎做多。国 债短期高位震荡，谨慎观望。商品板块来看，黑色短期低位震荡反弹，短期谨慎 做多；有色短期震荡偏强，短期谨慎做多；能化短期震荡，谨慎观望；贵金属短 期高位震荡，谨慎做多。 冯冰 【股指】 在中船系、生物医药以及半导体等板块的支撑下，国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].