1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening, with the market focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes are expected to show short - term range - bound trends, and specific investment strategies vary according to different sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about central bank independence, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus has been strengthened, and the short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased while domestic easing expectations have increased, resulting in an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. - Asset Recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; commodities in different sectors are generally expected to oscillate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as rare earth concepts, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. - With the strengthening of policy stimulus, the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty, and the increase in domestic easing expectations, the short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported in the short term due to increased concerns about independence, rising risk of stagflation, and strengthened rate - cut expectations. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's attitude changes, and the market focus is on the upcoming US PCE data [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of steel continued to be weak. Demand was weak, inventory increased, and supply was expected to decline in the future. With strong cost support, a range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined. With strong northern production - restriction expectations, cautious procurement by steel mills, and increasing supply pressure, a range - bound approach is expected in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. Supply in some regions was increasing, but there were potential production - cut plans. A range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: There is a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term under the boost of real - estate news [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The impact of Trump's attempt to remove Cook on the copper market is expected to be small in the short term, and domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price declined slightly. The fundamentals changed little, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to be relatively loose in the long term, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate in a range, considering the high - level oscillation of black metals and polysilicon [13]. - **Polysilicon**: It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and the potential impact of US tariffs on India's oil imports have affected oil prices. There is still some support for oil prices in the near term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and rising crude oil prices, but with limited inventory reduction, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near term [16]. - **PX**: It is in a tight situation in the short term and is expected to oscillate while waiting for changes in PTA device operations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by capacity adjustments and increased downstream demand, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. Supported by downstream demand recovery, but facing supply pressure, short - term buying on dips should pay attention to crude oil cost fluctuations [18][19]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by sector resonance, its price increased slightly. It is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies in the medium term [19]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, but the oversupply situation remains. It is expected to oscillate in price [19]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, but there is policy support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [19]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of turning. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on demand and inventory - building [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The selling pressure of US Treasuries has increased, and the weakening of the US dollar has provided some support to commodities. The expected Sino - US trade negotiations have boosted the export sales expectations of US soybeans [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic soybean and soybean meal in oil mills has eased. Rapeseed meal still has the basis for upward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [21]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to shrink; soybean oil is expected to have a low - valuation price - increase market; palm oil is expected to enter an oscillating phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and there is a low possibility of breaking through the previous range [21]. - **Pigs**: The weight of pigs has declined, and the second - fattening market is cautious. The market's pessimistic sentiment about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the optimism about the interest - rate cut has subsided, the US dollar index has rebounded, and the global risk appetite has cooled. In China, the economic data in July was weaker than expected, but policy stimulus has increased, and the domestic risk preference has continued to rise. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions [2]. - The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with the short - term macro upward driving force marginally strengthened. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as rare earths, liquor, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals, the domestic stock market continued to rise significantly. With the enhanced policy stimulus and reduced external risks, the domestic risk preference has increased. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated on Monday. After Powell's dovish speech, the international gold price rose sharply. The market's expectation of a September interest - rate cut is over 86%. With stagflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, gold has strong short - term support, but beware of the Fed's attitude reversal [3][4]. - **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly on Monday. Although the current demand is weak and the inventory is rising, with the approaching of the 9.3 parade, supply is likely to decline. It is recommended to treat the steel market as a range - bound oscillation [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded significantly on Monday. With high steel - mill profits and increasing iron - water production, but due to the approaching parade and sufficient supply, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Monday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. With increasing production and supply, the iron - alloy prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6][7]. - **Soda Ash and Glass** - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash main contract oscillated strongly on Monday. With high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, the supply - side contradiction suppresses the price, and the upside space is limited [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract was strong on Monday, affected by real - estate news. With stable supply and limited demand growth, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: High tariffs affect the economy, and with increasing copper - mine supply and weakening domestic demand, the strong copper - price trend is hard to sustain [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rose significantly on Monday, boosted by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. With increasing inventory, the medium - term upside space is limited, and it will oscillate in the short term [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: With tight scrap - aluminum supply, high production costs, and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [10]. - **Tin**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support from smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weak demand [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After the previous sentiment decline, it is expected to oscillate widely, short - term bearish and long - term bullish [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With the black and polysilicon markets oscillating at high levels, the industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in a range [13]. - **Polysilicon**: Facing the game between strong expectations and weak reality, it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: With the restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals, the price is under pressure. However, with the approaching of the traditional downstream peak season and the planned restart of MTO plants, the fundamentals are improving marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate [15][16]. - **PP**: With increasing supply pressure and a slight increase in downstream demand, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be watched for peak - season stocking [16]. - **LLDPE**: With continuous supply pressure and a turning - point in demand, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term bearish, with attention to demand and stocking [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT November soybeans closed down. The US soybean export inspection volume and the crop's good - to - excellent rate were better than expected, increasing the pressure of a bumper - harvest expectation [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of inventory accumulation of domestic oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal has eased. The supply in the fourth quarter may shrink, and rapeseed meal still has an upward - fluctuation basis [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed - oil port inventory has been decreasing, and the supply - contraction expectation is strong. The soybean - oil cost expectation has strengthened, and a low - valuation rebound is expected [19]. - **Palm Oil**: In the production - increasing cycle, with no prominent supply - demand contradiction and no incremental consumption expectation from policies, the market may enter an oscillation. The domestic demand is restricted by the soybean - palm - oil price difference, and the inventory is decreasing [20]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and the possibility of breaking through last year's range is small [21]. - **Pigs**: The weight of pigs has declined, and there is some support from secondary fattening. However, with the increase in secondary - fattening transportation costs and limited replenishment, the market's pessimism about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting boosted market expectations for a September interest rate cut, weakening the US dollar index and significantly increasing global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down across the board and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier stated measures to stimulate consumption and stabilize the real - estate market, enhancing policy stimulus expectations. The extension of the 90 - day tariff truce between China and the US reduced short - term tariff risk uncertainty, increasing domestic risk appetite [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends and trading suggestions. For example, the stock index is expected to be strongly volatile at a high level in the short term, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; the bond market is expected to correct at a high level, suggesting cautious observation; various commodity sectors also have corresponding short - term trends and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **Asset trends and trading suggestions**: The stock index is expected to be strongly volatile at a high level in the short term, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; the bond market is expected to correct at a high level, suggesting cautious observation. Among commodity sectors, the black metals are expected to correct in the short term, the non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile, the energy and chemical sectors are expected to rebound with volatility, and precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, all suggesting cautious observation [2]. Stock Index - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and securities, the domestic stock market continued to rise significantly. - **Fundamentals and policies**: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus expectations increased, and the extension of the tariff truce reduced short - term tariff risk uncertainty, increasing domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has increased marginally. - **Operation suggestion**: Cautious short - term long positions [3]. Precious Metals - **Market performance**: Precious metals rose significantly last Friday. The international gold price rebounded above the $3350/ounce mark, and Shanghai gold closed at around 781.12 yuan/gram. - **Influencing factors**: Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, high manufacturing PMI but rising initial jobless claims, and the uncertain situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the short term, but beware of the Fed's changing attitude. Focus on the next stage of employment data [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - **Market performance**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volumes. - **Fundamentals**: Demand remained weak, and the inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.07 tons week - on - week. The output of building materials decreased, while the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.65 tons. There were rumors of production regulation in Cangzhou, and iron - water output may further decline. - **Outlook**: The steel market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [5]. Iron Ore - **Market performance**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak last Friday. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' profits were high, and iron - water output increased slightly. With the approaching of important events in early September, production - restriction policies may be upgraded. Steel mills mainly replenished stocks on a just - in - time basis. The supply increased, with the global iron - ore shipment volume increasing by 359.9 tons and the arrival volume increasing by 94.7 tons week - on - week. Port inventories showed an increasing trend. - **Outlook**: Iron - ore prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market performance**: The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remained flat last Friday, while the futures prices continued to decline. - **Fundamentals**: The prices of manganese ore were weak. The production enthusiasm of manufacturers was high, with the national capacity utilization rate of silicomanganese increasing by 2.32% to 45.75% and the daily output increasing by 1605 tons. The national capacity utilization rate of ferrosilicon increased by 1.86% to 36.18%, and the daily output increased by 535 tons. - **Outlook**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [5][6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - **Market performance**: The main soda - ash contract was weakly running last week. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased week - on - week due to the return from previous maintenance, and there was new capacity coming on - stream. Demand remained stable week - on - week, but was still weak compared to the same period in previous years. Profits decreased week - on - week. - **Outlook**: Soda ash is in a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is likely to decline rather than rise [7]. Glass - **Market performance**: The main glass contract was weakly running last week. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained stable, with no change in production capacity and the number of production lines. Demand was still weak in the real - estate industry, and although downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as glass prices fell. - **Outlook**: Glass supply is stable, demand has limited growth, and the futures price is expected to run at a low level in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - **Macro - factors**: Powell's speech increased expectations for a September interest rate cut, but some Fed members were cautious about rate cuts. Tariffs still affected the economy. - **Supply and demand**: Copper mine production growth was higher than expected, and refined - copper production was unlikely to decrease significantly. Domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally. - **Outlook**: The strong trend of copper prices may not last [8][9]. Aluminum - **Market performance**: Aluminum prices rose slightly last Friday but closed with a long upper shadow. - **Inventory situation**: Aluminum inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, but domestic social inventory has increased by nearly 15 tons, and LME inventory has increased by about 14 tons since the low point in late June. - **Outlook**: The medium - term upward space is limited, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a possibility of forming a double - top pattern [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply and demand**: The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, increasing production costs and leading to losses for some enterprises. It is currently the off - season, and demand is weak. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. Tin - **Supply side**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. Although the mine supply is currently tight, the reduction in refined - tin production is lower than expected. Some enterprises plan to carry out maintenance. - **Demand side**: Terminal demand is weak, but price drops have stimulated downstream inventory replenishment, and inventory decreased by 802 tons to 9278 tons this week. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with support from maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Production situation**: As of August 21, the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 4.2% to 19138 tons, and the operating rate was 49.93%. Lithium mica production decreased, while lithium - spodumene production increased. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be widely volatile, with short - term short positions and long - term long positions [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Production situation**: The latest weekly production increased by 7.2% to 87801 tons. The number of open furnaces increased by 13 to 297, and the furnace - opening rate was 37%. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be strongly volatile, as the price is close to the cash cost of leading enterprises [11]. Polysilicon - **Market situation**: It is the focus of anti - involution, and the spot price has rebounded. The component procurement and bidding price has increased. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [11]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market performance**: Oil prices rebounded slightly due to geopolitical risks, stable spot - market decline, and unexpected inventory reduction in the US. - **Outlook**: There may be slight short - term upward space, but the long - term outlook is bearish [12]. Asphalt - **Market situation**: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and the rebound of international crude - oil prices, the spot market has recovered slightly, and the basis decline has paused. However, inventory reduction is limited. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be weakly volatile in the near term [13]. PX - **Market situation**: PTA demand has decreased due to low processing fees and planned outages. PX is supported by petrochemical capacity adjustment, but the device load is at a medium - low level. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA devices [13]. PTA - **Market situation**: Driven by capacity adjustment and a temporary shutdown of a device in Huizhou, the futures price has risen, and the basis has recovered. Downstream operating rates have recovered to 90%, and inventory is expected to decrease slightly in September. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market situation**: Port inventory decreased to 54.3 tons. Restrictions on petrochemical capacity have provided support, but the supply pressure is still large after the restart of syngas - based devices. - **Outlook**: Downstream operating - rate recovery will support prices, but beware of crude - oil cost fluctuations when going long at low prices [14]. Short - fiber - **Market situation**: Driven by the sector's rebound, short - fiber prices rose slightly. Terminal orders increased seasonally, and the operating rate rebounded slightly, with limited inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: It may continue to be shorted in the medium term following the polyester sector [15][16]. Methanol - **Market situation**: Inland devices restarted, and the arrival of goods was concentrated, putting pressure on prices. However, the reflux window is about to open, and MTO devices plan to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be volatile [16]. PP - **Market situation**: Device operating rates increased, and new capacity is to be put into production, increasing supply pressure. Downstream operating rates increased slightly, and demand showed signs of recovery. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [16]. LLDPE - **Market situation**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand shows signs of a turnaround. "Supply - side" speculation provides some support. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile, and the 01 contract is short - term weak, focusing on demand and inventory - building [16]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market situation**: The Pro Farmer report estimated the new - crop soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, slightly lower than the USDA report. Policy expectations have improved, and the impact of the historical exemption of US soybean oil is limited, providing support for the market. - **Outlook**: It may rise, but beware of seasonal pressure during the harvest season [17]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory situation**: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal has eased. The rumor of imported - soybean auctions has stabilized supply expectations. - **Supply and demand outlook**: Supply is sufficient in the third quarter, and supply and demand may shrink in the fourth quarter, with a strong cost expectation. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has slightly widened. - **Outlook**: Rapeseed meal still has room for upward fluctuations [17][18]. Fats and Oils - **Market situation**: US soybean oil prices rose due to stable policy expectations. International soybean and palm oil prices rose, and domestic oils may continue the upward trend. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and soybean oil has the potential for a low - valuation rebound. Palm oil may enter a volatile phase. - **Outlook**: Domestic oils may continue the upward trend, and palm oil may be volatile [18]. Corn - **Market situation**: In September, the pricing weight of new - season corn increases. There is no pressure of concentrated arrivals as last year, and the carry - over inventory is low. - **Outlook**: The futures price has entered a relatively undervalued range, and there is little possibility of breaking through last year's range [18]. Live Pigs - **Market situation**: Pig weight has decreased, and the price difference between fattened and standard pigs has increased. Some secondary fattening has increased, but the overall replenishment volume is limited. The "inspection for every vehicle and every pig" policy in September will increase transportation costs. - **Outlook**: Market sentiment for the fourth quarter is pessimistic [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed officials remain cautious about rate cuts, while the next Fed Chair candidate calls for significant rate cuts. The US August S&P Global Composite PMI hits an 8 - month high, reducing market expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year, leading to a rise in the US dollar index and a decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's July economic data slows down across the board and falls short of expectations. Chinese Premier indicates measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real - estate market, increasing policy stimulus expectations. The extension of the China - US tariff truce by 90 days reduces short - term tariff uncertainties and boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks: stocks are expected to be strong in the short - term, with a cautious long - position recommendation; bonds may experience a high - level correction, suggesting cautious observation; various commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious observation recommended for most [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Global situation**: Fed officials' views on rate cuts diverge. The US August S&P Global Composite PMI is at an 8 - month high, reducing expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year, causing the US dollar index to rise and global risk appetite to decline. China's July economic data is weaker than expected, but policy measures are expected to boost consumption and the real - estate market. The extension of the China - US tariff truce by 90 days reduces short - term tariff uncertainties and increases domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Asset performance**: Stocks are expected to be strong in the short - term, with a cautious long - position recommendation; bonds may experience a high - level correction, suggesting cautious observation; commodities in different sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious observation recommended for most [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as digital currency, oil and gas, and internet e - commerce, the domestic stock market continues to rise. Despite weak July economic data, policy measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real - estate market, along with the extension of the China - US tariff truce, increase domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force is strengthening, and it is recommended to be cautious with long - positions in the short - term [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals showed a divergent trend. Disagreements among Fed officials increase, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September drops to 75%. US economic data shows mixed signals, with the US dollar strengthening and suppressing the upward movement of precious metals. Investors are focusing on the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Powell's speech [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Thursday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly, but trading volume was low. The approaching Jackson Hole Symposium weakens rate - cut expectations. Real - world demand remains weak, with steel inventories rising by 25.07 tons this week, mainly due to an increase in rebar inventories. Supply shows mixed trends, with building material production decreasing and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 9.65 tons. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Steel mill profits are high, and last week's pig iron production increased slightly. However, with the approaching of important events in early September, production restrictions may be tightened. Steel mills mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand. Supply is increasing, with global iron ore shipments rising by 359.9 tons and arrivals rising by 94.7 tons this week. Iron ore prices may weaken in the later stage [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices fluctuated within a range. Manufacturers' production enthusiasm is high, with an increase in production capacity utilization and daily output. Iron alloy prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [7]. - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the main soda ash contract fluctuated within a range. Supply is increasing, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged, with new production capacity expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. Demand is weak, and profits are decreasing. Soda ash prices are likely to fall [8]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the main glass contract fluctuated within a range. Supply shows little change, with daily melting volume decreasing slightly. Demand from the real - estate sector remains weak, and profits are decreasing. Glass prices follow the real - world logic [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The eurozone and German August manufacturing PMI are better than expected. The approaching Jackson Hole Symposium increases rate - cut expectations, which is short - term positive for copper prices. However, high tariffs and a slowdown in the US economy may limit the upside of copper prices. Domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, aluminum prices rose slightly and then fell back. Aluminum inventories decreased by 1.1 tons, but domestic social inventories have increased by nearly 15 tons. LME aluminum inventories have increased and then stabilized. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with limited upward space [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing production costs and causing losses for some recycling plants. Demand is in the off - season. Aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly to 59.23%. The supply of tin ore is expected to be loose. Demand is weak, with a decline in downstream orders. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with limited upside [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, the main lithium carbonate contract fell by 0.17%. Industry profits are improving, and production enthusiasm is high. The contract is in a key hedging pressure range, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the main industrial silicon contract rose by 3.66%. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the main polysilicon contract rose by 1.28%. Spot prices increased, and silicon wafer prices also rose. The government is taking measures to regulate the industry, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US may double tariffs on India to punish its purchase of Russian oil, causing oil prices to rise slightly. The US is promoting a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Global oil inventories are low, and the market is waiting for post - peak - season demand verification [13]. - **Asphalt**: The adjustment of refinery capacity may reduce asphalt supply slightly. The futures market rebounds following crude oil, and spot prices are slightly warmer. However, inventories are not significantly reduced, and asphalt prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [13]. - **PX**: The adjustment of upstream refinery capacity supports PX prices. PX supply is tight in the short - term, and prices are expected to fluctuate [14]. - **PTA**: A Huizhou plant's maintenance reduces supply pressure in September. Downstream demand recovers, and PTA prices are supported, but the upside is limited by crude oil prices and terminal orders [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The polyester sector recovers, and new capacity is restricted. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and supply may increase slightly. Attention should be paid to post - September terminal orders [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The sector rebounds, driving up short - fiber prices. Terminal orders increase seasonally, but more significant inventory reduction depends on further improvement in terminal orders [16][17]. - **Methanol**: Some methanol plants restart, and inland demand increases. However, port inventories rise due to imports and olefin plant maintenance. The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and weakly volatile in the medium - term [17]. - **PP**: Supply pressure increases with rising production capacity, and downstream demand increases slightly. With policy support, prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the 09 contract, and the 01 contract should be monitored for peak - season inventory replenishment [18]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand shows signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile, and the 01 contract should be monitored for demand and inventory replenishment and policy implementation [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT November soybeans rose by 1.83%. The Pro Farmer crop tour results will be released on Friday, and there are concerns about crop diseases. US soybean export sales show a mixed picture, with a decrease in current - year sales and an increase in next - year sales [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Customs inspections of soybeans may cause short - term disruptions to some oil mills. US soybean production prospects and export sales may affect soybean meal prices, which may be dragged down [19]. - **Soybean, Rapeseed, and Palm Oil**: CBOT soybean oil futures rose due to improved export sales. Domestic soybean oil costs are expected to be strong, with high short - term inventories. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to shrink. Palm oil prices rose, driven by US soybean oil prices and low Indonesian inventories [19][20]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak, with low trading activity. Downstream inventories increase, and there are concerns about government grain auctions. Corn prices may be weak in the short - term, but the probability of breaking last year's price range is low [20]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, and the weight of hogs decreases. Second - fattening activities increase slightly, but the overall scale is limited. Market sentiment for the fourth quarter is pessimistic [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The overall market sentiment has shown a mixed picture. Overseas, the global risk appetite has cooled to some extent, while in China, the risk appetite has increased due to policy stimulus expectations and the extension of the tariff truce period. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions, and various commodity sectors also face different supply - demand and price situations. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the US dollar reduced its decline after the Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers supported last month's rate cut, and the global risk appetite cooled. In China, the economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier indicated measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market, and the Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, increasing domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a short - term high, and it is advisable to be cautious when going long; the treasury bond is expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals are expected to correct in the short term, non - ferrous metals to oscillate, energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly, and precious metals to oscillate at a high level, all requiring cautious observation. [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as liquor, semiconductors, and small metals, the domestic stock market rose significantly. The economic data in July was weak, but policy stimulus expectations increased, and the short - term macro - upward driving force strengthened. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. It is advisable to be cautious when going long in the short term. [3] Precious Metals - Precious metals rose on Wednesday. The Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers advocated rate cuts, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September was 83%. Weak employment data and a weakening US dollar index led to the rise of precious metals. The long - term positive logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to entry opportunities at key points. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets were flat, with prices slightly falling and low trading volume. Demand weakened, and inventories in some areas increased. Supply of rebar was relatively low, and that of plates was stable. There were rumors of production control in Cangzhou, and iron - water production may further decline. It is advisable to view the steel market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak. Although steel mill profits were high and iron - water production rebounded slightly last week, with the approaching of important events in early September, production - restriction policies may be further strengthened, and port transportation and ore handling volumes will be affected. The supply side increased, and port inventories were accumulating. Iron ore prices may weaken in the short term. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell. Manganese ore prices continued to decline. Manufacturers were actively starting production, and some had plans to increase production. The开工 rate and daily output of both silicon manganese and silicon iron increased. It is advisable to view the ferroalloy market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [6] - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda - ash contract was weak. The supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged, with new installations expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. Demand was weak, and profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash is likely to fall rather than rise due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [7] - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was weak. Supply changes were small, demand was still weak in the real - estate industry, and although downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as prices fell. Glass prices follow the real - world logic due to near - month delivery. [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: With the approaching of the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, the expectation of a rate cut has increased, which is short - term positive for copper prices. However, high tariffs and the slowdown of the US economy pose risks. Copper mine production is growing faster than expected, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper price is hard to sustain. [8][9] - **Aluminum**: On August 19, the US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. Aluminum prices fell slightly on Wednesday. The fundamentals of aluminum have weakened, with domestic social inventories increasing significantly and LME inventories also rising. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited medium - term upside. [9] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing production costs and causing losses for some regenerative aluminum plants. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited. [10] - **Tin**: The combined开工 rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight but improving, and refined tin production has not decreased significantly. Demand is weak, and although inventory decreased this week, downstream procurement is still cautious. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upside is restricted. [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. The prices of lithium carbonate and lithium ore decreased. The industry's profit situation has improved, and production enthusiasm is high. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial - silicon contract fell. The spot price decreased, and the futures price was at a discount. With the weakening of black metals and the oscillation of polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate within a range. [11] - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon contract fell slightly. Spot prices were stable, and the number of warehouse receipts increased, indicating increased hedging pressure. The photovoltaic industry is expected to regulate the market, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with a possibility of weakening later. [12][13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: EIA data showed a significant decrease in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, leading to a rebound in oil prices. However, Cushing inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and long - term supply increases, the long - term outlook for oil prices is still bearish, and short - term stability is expected. [14] - **Asphalt**: The processing margin of asphalt is approaching the previous low, but the crude - oil processing margin has rebounded slightly, providing some price support. The spot price has slightly recovered, but inventory de - stocking is limited. With the expected decline of crude oil prices due to OPEC+ production increases, asphalt is expected to remain in a weak - oscillation pattern. [14] - **PX**: The adjustment of upstream refinery capacity in China has strengthened the support for downstream chemicals. Although PX is in a tight supply situation in the short term, it is expected to oscillate as PTA device recovery is limited. [15] - **PTA**: The polyester sector rebounded due to capacity adjustment, and PTA was also lifted. Downstream demand has slightly rebounded, but processing margins are low, limiting supply. PTA prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, with the upside restricted by crude oil prices and terminal orders in September. [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The restriction on new capacity and excess raw - material capacity has supported ethylene glycol prices. Although port inventory has decreased slightly, factory inventory is still high, and supply is expected to increase slightly. With the recovery of terminal orders in August, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an oscillation pattern. [16] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price rose slightly due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased slightly, but inventory accumulation is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term. [16] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang followed the futures and strengthened, while the basis weakened. Inland demand increased as some methanol plants restarted, but port inventory increased due to imports and plant overhauls. The price is expected to oscillate and rise in the short term and maintain a weak - oscillation pattern in the medium term. [17] - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP has increased as device开工 rates have risen and new capacity is to be put into operation. Although downstream demand has increased slightly, there is no obvious peak - season stocking. With policy support, PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the 09 contract and attention should be paid to the 01 contract for peak - season stocking. [17] - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of LLDPE remains high, and demand has shown a turning point. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, while the 01 contract is supported by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to demand, stocking, and policy implementation. [18] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT rose slightly. US soybean growers urged the government to reach a trade agreement with China, and the results of the Midwest crop inspection were mixed. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of full - stockpiling of soybeans and soybean meal in domestic oil mills has been relieved. Canadian rapeseed imports are restricted, but China's purchase of Australian rapeseed has eased the supply risk. The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has risen, and there is still a risk preference for rapeseed meal. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: ICE rapeseed rebounded after two days of decline. The supply of domestic rapeseed oil is expected to shrink as port inventory decreases and imports are low. The cost of soybean oil is expected to be strong, with high short - term inventory pressure but improved supply - demand in the fourth quarter. [20] - **Palm Oil**: The prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, Malaysian palm - oil futures, and international crude oil rose. The export of Malaysian palm oil in August 1 - 20 increased significantly, but the inverted soybean - palm oil price spread may affect future demand. [20] - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak. With the listing of spring corn, sufficient supply, and the potential impact of state - reserve auctions and rice auctions, the corn market remains weak. [20] - **Pigs**: Pig prices may have a seasonal rebound from late August to September, but the amplitude is limited. The cost of secondary fattening has increased due to stricter transportation inspections. The spot price has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the consumption peak during the start of the school term. [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the market anticipates the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, leading to a decline in global risk - aversion sentiment. The market awaits the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for US interest - rate policy clues, with the US dollar remaining volatile and global risk appetite rising. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus expectations are strengthening, and the short - term uncertainty of tariff risks has decreased, leading to an overall increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, with a short - term cautious long - position strategy. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to watch cautiously. In the commodity sector, black commodities are expected to correct in the short term, non - ferrous metals to oscillate, energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly, and precious metals to oscillate at a high level, all with a cautious watching strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Macroeconomic and Financial - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Overseas, the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces global risk - aversion, and the market awaits US interest - rate policy clues. Domestically, economic data in July was weak, but policy stimulus expectations are rising, and the short - term tariff risk uncertainty is reduced [2]. - **Asset Performance and Strategies**: The stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term (cautious long - position). Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level (cautious watching). Black commodities are expected to correct (cautious watching), non - ferrous metals to oscillate (cautious watching), energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly (cautious watching), and precious metals to oscillate at a high level (cautious watching) [2]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, military, and securities sectors. - **Fundamentals and Policy**: China's economic data in July was weak. Policy stimulus expectations are rising, and the short - term tariff risk uncertainty is reduced. The short - term upward macro - driving force is weakening, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. A short - term cautious long - position strategy is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metals declined slightly on Tuesday. The probability of a September interest - rate cut fell below 90%, and inflation data showed resistance to the decline in inflation. - **Outlook**: The long - term positive logic remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to entry opportunities at key points [4]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Performance**: Steel futures and spot prices continued to decline slightly on Tuesday, with low trading volumes. - **Fundamentals**: Demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and high - temperature and rainy weather restricts building material demand. Supply is showing signs of reduction, and a short - term oscillating and weakening trend is expected [4][5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: Iron ore futures and spot prices continued to decline slightly on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: Steel profits are high, but iron - making water production may decline due to approaching events. Supply is increasing, and port inventory is rising. Iron ore prices may weaken in the short term [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Performance**: Spot and futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: Manufacturers' production enthusiasm is high, and production capacity is increasing. A short - term oscillating and weakening trend is expected [6]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The main soda ash contract was weak on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and profits are declining. The high - supply, high - inventory, and weak - demand pattern persists, and the upside space is limited [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The main glass contract was weak on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to improve significantly, and profits are decreasing. The price has declined recently [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - **Market Performance**: The US economy is slowing down, and copper demand is expected to weaken. - **Outlook**: Copper prices may not remain strong in the long run as supply is relatively sufficient and demand is weakening [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices declined on Tuesday, and the overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic social inventory is rising, and the medium - term upside space is limited. The short - term oscillation trend is expected, but the rebound foundation is weakening [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and production costs are rising. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside space is limited due to weak demand [9]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory decreased this week. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, but the upside space is restricted by high - tariff risks, production resumption expectations, and weak demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main lithium carbonate contract declined on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: There is a short - term positive impact on supply, and the industry profit is improving. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main industrial silicon contract declined on Tuesday. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate within a range as black commodities weaken and polysilicon oscillates [11]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main polysilicon contract declined on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: The number of warehouse receipts is increasing, and the industry is promoting self - regulation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices declined slightly as the market assesses the prospects of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - **Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to remain weak in the long term [14]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The asphalt price is following the decline of crude oil, and the spot market is weak. - **Outlook**: It is expected to remain in a weak oscillation pattern as inventory reduction is limited [14]. PX - **Market Performance**: Crude oil price decline led to a correction in the energy - chemical sector. PX is in a tight supply situation in the short term. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate and wait for changes in PTA plants [14]. PTA - **Market Performance**: Pakistan's anti - dumping on PTA exports has a limited impact. Downstream demand has rebounded slightly. - **Outlook**: The supply is limited, and demand is rising slightly. The price is supported but the upside space is restricted [15]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Port inventory has decreased slightly, and downstream demand has rebounded. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and it will maintain an oscillating pattern [15]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The short - fiber price declined due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased slightly. - **Outlook**: It may continue to be short - sold in the medium term, waiting for further improvement in terminal orders [15]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: There is a regional differentiation, with the inland strong and the port weak. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [16][17]. PP - **Market Performance**: Supply pressure is increasing, and downstream demand is rising slightly. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be monitored for peak - season restocking [17]. LLDPE - **Market Performance**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is showing signs of improvement. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be monitored for demand and restocking [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market Performance**: The CBOT November soybean contract declined. The market is waiting for the results of the ProFarmer crop tour. - **Field Conditions**: The number of soybean pods in some states is higher than average, and moist soil may promote growth [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Performance**: The pressure of soybean and soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills has eased. - **Supply Situation**: Canadian rapeseed imports are restricted, but the purchase of Australian rapeseed may diversify supply sources [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Rapeseed oil port inventory is decreasing, and soybean oil has high - inventory pressure in the short term. - **Outlook**: Rapeseed oil supply is expected to shrink, and soybean oil's supply - demand situation will improve in the fourth quarter [19]. Fats and Oils - **Market Performance**: International crude oil and Chicago soybean oil prices declined, which will drag down the Malaysian palm oil market. - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil production has a small increase, and exports have improved significantly. However, the inverted price difference may affect future demand [19]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Northeast corn prices are weak, and the market is inactive. - **Supply Outlook**: New corn will be listed in August, and the supply is expected to be sufficient. Corn futures are weak [20]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The spot pig price is weak, and the supply is increasing. - **Outlook**: The price decline has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the consumption peak during the start of the school term [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine has made progress, global risk aversion has decreased, and the US dollar has rebounded. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations, but policy stimulus expectations have increased, and domestic risk appetite has generally risen [2]. - In terms of assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short - term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to watch cautiously. Among the commodity sectors, the black sector has increased short - term volatility, the non - ferrous sector is expected to fluctuate and it is advisable to be cautiously long, the energy and chemical sector is expected to fluctuate weakly, and precious metals are expected to fluctuate at a high level, all of which require cautious observation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine has made progress, the US retail sales in July increased as expected, and the market has reduced expectations of a significant interest rate cut by the Fed, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier proposed to stimulate consumption potential and stabilize the real estate market, and the Sino - US tariff truce has been extended by 90 days, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties and increasing domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as artificial intelligence, film and television theaters, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market has risen significantly. Although China's economic data in July was weak, policy stimulus expectations have increased, and the short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level in the short - term, it is advisable to watch cautiously [2]. Commodity Research Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel have declined slightly. The US has expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariff collection, and the real demand has weakened. The inventory of five major steel products has increased, and the supply of rebar is relatively low while the supply of plates is relatively stable. It is advisable to view the steel market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short - term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have continued to decline slightly. Although the steel mill profits are high in the short - term, the iron water production is expected to decrease as important events approach. The supply has increased, and the port inventory is accumulating. The iron ore price may weaken periodically later [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron remained flat, and that of silicon manganese rebounded slightly. The market performance is good, and the manufacturers' enthusiasm for production is high. The manganese ore price is firm. The iron alloy price is expected to be weak - oscillating in the short - term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash has shown range - bound oscillations. The supply has increased, and the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The price upside is limited [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass has shown range - bound oscillations. The supply is stable, the demand from the real estate industry is weak, and the profit has decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts can be considered later [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Pay attention to the follow - up progress of the US - Russia negotiation. The copper mine supply is increasing, and the domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper price is difficult to sustain [9]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has declined due to US tariff measures. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has increased and then stabilized. The medium - term upside is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term with a weakening rebound basis [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the production cost has increased, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The supply - side开工率 has slightly declined, the mine end is expected to become looser, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the upside is restricted [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate has reached a new high. Due to the suspension of a mine, the supply is short - term favorable, and the bullish sentiment is strong. It is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon has declined slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon has risen. The warehouse receipt pressure has increased. Pay attention to the progress of the photovoltaic enterprise symposium organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US - Ukraine meeting has dampened the expectation of a quick cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The market is uncertain, and the oil price has been fluctuating in a narrow range [14]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by geopolitical uncertainties, asphalt has followed the decline in crude oil prices. The asphalt market is still weak in the peak season, and it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near future [14]. - **PX**: The decline in crude oil prices has led to a correction in the energy and chemical sector. PX is still in a tight supply situation in the short - term and is expected to oscillate [14]. - **PTA**: The downstream demand has rebounded slightly, the processing margin is low, and the supply is restricted. It is expected to oscillate in a narrow range in the short - term [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased slightly, but the factory inventory is still high. The supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [15]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has declined due to sector resonance. The terminal orders have increased slightly, and it is advisable to go short on rallies in the medium - term [15]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is strong, and the port market is weak. The regional differentiation is obvious. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - **PP**: The supply pressure has increased, and the downstream demand has increased slightly. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract can be observed for peak - season stocking later [16][17]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure remains, and the demand shows signs of a turn. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract can be observed for demand and stocking [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean market is consolidating, waiting for the results of the ProFarmer crop inspection. The US soybean growth indicators are good [18]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of soybean and soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills has been relieved. The purchase of Canadian rapeseed is limited. Pay attention to the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in the near - month contracts [19]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil inventory at ports is decreasing, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to be strong in the fourth quarter [20]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic palm oil inventory has increased. The Indonesian and Indian inventories are low, the export has improved, and the price is expected to run strongly [20]. - **Corn**: The price of Northeast corn is weak, the market trading is inactive, and the supply is expected to be sufficient in the future. The corn futures market is weak [21]. - **Pigs**: The spot hog price is weak, the supply has increased, and the price decline has narrowed. Pay attention to the performance of hog prices during the consumption peak in late August [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic economic data fell short of expectations, leading to an increased expectation of policy stimulus. The overall risk appetite in the domestic market has increased, with short - term bullish sentiment for stocks and cautious optimism for commodities [2]. - The long - term outlook for precious metals remains positive, but short - term support has weakened. Black metals are expected to be weak in the short term, while non - ferrous metals and new energy metals show mixed trends. Energy and chemical products are likely to remain in a weak or narrow - range oscillation pattern. Agricultural products present complex supply - demand relationships and price trends [4][6][14][17]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US President announced significant progress with Russia, reducing global risk - aversion sentiment. US retail sales in July met expectations, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation decreased. Domestically, July economic data slowed down and missed expectations. Policies such as the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy plan and the extension of the China - US tariff truce may boost consumption and reduce short - term tariff uncertainties [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors like batteries, securities, and banks, the domestic stock market rose. With economic data underperforming and policy support, the short - term upward momentum has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended, but beware of high - level corrections [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Last week, precious metals oscillated weakly. Inflation data fluctuations and Fed policy uncertainties restricted the upside. Long - term prospects are positive due to monetary easing and central bank gold - buying demand [4]. Commodity Research Black Metals - **Steel**: The US expansion of steel and aluminum tariff scope is negative for steel billets and hot - rolled coils. Real - world demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and supply may decline further. A short - term weak - oscillation approach is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Last Friday, prices rebounded slightly. With approaching important events, iron - water production may decline. Supply is under pressure, and prices may weaken [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Manganese ore prices are rising, and some silicon - iron enterprises are profitable and eager to resume production [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is excessive, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The upside is limited [8]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is hard to increase significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider long positions in far - month contracts [8][9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals - **Copper**: US PPI data exceeded expectations. Copper supply is expected to be stable, and domestic demand may weaken. The strong price trend may not last [10]. - **Aluminum**: The US expansion of aluminum tariffs affects global exports. Aluminum fundamentals are weakening, and mid - term upside is limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate strongly in the short term but have limited upside [11]. - **Tin**: Supply may increase, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited rebound space [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production is at a new high, raw - material support is strengthening, and inventory is shifting downstream. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production is increasing, inventory is high, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12][13]. - **Polysilicon**: Production is expected to increase in August. Inventory is decreasing slightly, and attention should be paid to the August 19th photovoltaic enterprise symposium [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US - Russia talks had no substantial results. The oil market may face an oversupply situation in 2026. Short - term short positions are recommended, but beware of geopolitical risks [14]. - **Asphalt**: Crude - oil prices are weakening, and asphalt prices are under pressure. It is expected to remain weakly oscillating [14]. - **PX**: It remains in a tight supply situation in the short term and will oscillate until PTA device changes [14]. - **PTA**: Supply is restricted, demand is slightly increasing, and prices are supported but have limited upside [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand may both increase slightly, maintaining an oscillating pattern [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices are driven down by sector resonance. Observe terminal orders for de - stocking [15]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is strong, while the port market is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is slightly rising. The 09 contract may be weakly oscillating, and the 01 contract should be watched for peak - season restocking [16]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure persists, and demand shows signs of recovery. The 09 contract may be weakly oscillating, and the 01 contract should be monitored for demand and restocking [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The net short position of funds in the CBOT soybean market is increasing. A bumper harvest may be realized, but the export situation is uncertain. The price of 1000 cents per bushel is temporarily supported [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The cost of soybean meal is rising in the short term, but the spot market is not following. The cost - driven logic may weaken [17]. - **Oils and Fats**: Vegetable oil inventory is high and difficult to deplete, while soybean oil and palm oil show different trends. Consider the buy - soybean - sell - palm oil arbitrage strategy [18]. - **Corn**: Northeast corn prices are weak, with low trading activity and sufficient inventory in downstream enterprises. The futures market is sluggish [18]. - **Pigs**: Weekend spot prices were weak, but the decline has narrowed. Observe the performance during the late - August consumption peak [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US PPI in July increased significantly, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations cooled, causing the US dollar index to rebound and global risk appetite to decline. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in July decreased, and economic growth slowed, but policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period reduced short - term tariff risks, leading to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends. Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term; bonds may oscillate and correct at a high level; in the commodity sector, black metals may have greater short - term fluctuations, non - ferrous metals may oscillate, energy and chemicals may oscillate weakly, and precious metals may oscillate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Finance - **Macro Situation**: US July PPI increased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years, indicating potential inflation. Fed officials refuted the expectation of a significant rate cut in September. China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the trade deficit decreased, weakening the contribution of net exports to the economy. Policies such as the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period reduced short - term tariff risks [2]. - **Asset Performance**: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, with a cautious long - position strategy. Bonds may oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, black metals may have greater short - term fluctuations, non - ferrous metals may oscillate, energy and chemicals may oscillate weakly, and precious metals may oscillate at a high level, all with a cautious approach [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - **Market Movement**: The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as armament restructuring, rail transit equipment, and components. The economic growth in July slowed, but policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations, with an enhanced short - term upward macro - drive [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term cautious long - position, but beware of high - level correction risks [4]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: The decline of steel futures and spot prices widened on Thursday, with reduced trading volume. Real - world demand weakened, inventory increased by 400,000 tons week - on - week, and apparent consumption decreased. Supply of rebar was relatively low, and plate production was stable. There were rumors of production control in Cangzhou. Iron - water production may further decline. It is advisable to view the steel market as oscillating weakly in the short term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline of iron ore futures and spot prices widened on Thursday. With an approaching important event, iron - water production may decline. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 151,000 tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 1.259 million tons. Port inventory was accumulating, and supply pressure increased. Iron ore prices may weaken periodically [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, but the futures prices declined significantly. Manganese ore prices slightly increased, and there was an expectation of new silicon - manganese production capacity. Some silicon - iron enterprises had profits and high production enthusiasm. The downstream was waiting for steel mill pricing and had a strong willingness to replenish inventory. Iron - alloy prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the main soda - ash contract oscillated. Supply increased week - on - week, and the pattern of oversupply remained unchanged, with new device launches expected in the fourth quarter. Demand support was weak, and profit decreased week - on - week. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, with limited upward price space [7]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the main glass contract oscillated. Glass daily melting volume remained stable week - on - week, and there were expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Terminal real - estate demand was weak but slightly improved. Glass profit decreased week - on - week. Glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US economy is slowing, and the risk of recession exists. Copper - mine production growth is higher than expected, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper - price trend may not last [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, the aluminum closing price declined slightly. Aluminum's fundamentals weakened, with domestic social inventory increasing by nearly 140,000 tons and LME inventory increasing by 137,000 tons from the low in mid - June. The medium - term upward space is limited, and short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [10][11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts. It is in the demand off - season, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The supply of tin ore is expected to ease. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory decreased by 90 tons to 10,235 tons. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space due to risks and weak demand [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, lithium carbonate oscillated sharply. The main 2511 contract increased by 0.28%. The supply of the Jiangxi Ningde Times Jiaxiawo Mine stopped, causing a short - term supply shortage. The subsequent uncertainty lies in whether the remaining mines can complete the ore - type change by September 30 [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the main 2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1.14%. Pay attention to the impact of coking coal and polysilicon sentiment and the cash - flow cost support [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the main 2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 3.08%. The number of warehouse receipts increased, reflecting stronger hedging and delivery intentions. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and pay attention to the possibility of a weakening market [14]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang was weak, and the basis was strong. The inventory in Chinese ports and production enterprises increased. Supply - side maintenance was concentrated, and there were rumors of coking production cuts in Shandong. The supply was expected to decrease, and demand was boosted by the restart of inland olefin plants. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, but there were regional differences. The price is expected to oscillate [15][16]. - **PP**: The spot market of PP oscillated and declined. The inventory of two major petrochemical companies decreased. Crude - oil prices decreased, improving PP cost - profit, and new production capacity was planned to be launched in mid - to - late August. Demand was in the off - season, and industrial inventory increased. The 09 contract price may have limited fluctuations, and the 01 contract is currently considered weak. Pay attention to oil - price fluctuations [16]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE was slightly adjusted. The weekly production increased by 0.14% and is expected to decrease by 3.49% next week. Demand showed signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak. Pay attention to demand and inventory replenishment [17]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1031, down 13.25 or 1.27%. The net export sales of the current - market - year US soybeans decreased by 377,600 tons in the week ending August 7, while the next - market - year net export sales increased by 1.133 million tons [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: After the preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed dumping, rapeseed meal drove up the premium sentiment of soybean meal. The export price of Brazilian soybeans increased. The short - term cost drove up soybean meal prices, but the domestic inventory was accumulating, and the downstream demand was weak. If China imports US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed meal, the premium will decline [18][19]. - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed - oil port inventory was high and difficult to deplete, and the supply was expected to shrink. The cost of soybean oil was stable, and the supply - demand situation would improve in the fourth quarter. Palm - oil inventory in Malaysia was accumulating, and export demand was expected to improve. Indonesian and Indian inventories were low. Domestic rapeseed oil was affected by policy news. The overall valuation of oils and fats was slightly high. Pay attention to the supplementary increase of soybean oil and consider the strategy of buying soybean oil and shorting palm oil [19]. - **Corn**: The price of Northeast corn was weak, and market transactions were inactive. Enterprises in North China planned to reduce inventory. Corn will be listed in Anhui and Xinjiang in late August, and the supply is expected to be sufficient. The corn futures market was weak [20]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price in the benchmark area is stable at 13.5 - 13.8 yuan/kg. Large - scale pig farms have almost completed weight - reduction, and the entry of secondary fattening has increased. With the cooling weather, demand is expected to improve, and pig prices may rebound [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates has led to a weaker US dollar and rising global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth slowed in July, but policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period has reduced short - term tariff uncertainties, with different asset classes showing various trends [2]. - Different sectors in the market have different outlooks. For example, the stock market may be strong in the short - term, precious metals are supported at high levels, the black metal market is expected to be volatile, the non - ferrous and new energy sectors are showing weakness, the energy and chemical sector is facing downward pressure, and the agricultural products market has various influencing factors [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US Treasury Secretary indicated a possible 50 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed, and multiple Fed officials' dovish stances led to a decline in the US dollar index and rising global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with economic growth slowing. Trade deficit decreased, and net exports' contribution to the economy weakened. Policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period reduced short - term tariff uncertainties. Asset trends: stocks may be strong in the short - term, bonds may oscillate and correct, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors like armament restructuring, industrial metals, and components, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress, with short - term upward macro - drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious long - position is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices showed different trends on Wednesday. Moderate inflation data in the US strengthened the expectation of a September rate cut, pushing up the expectation of a loose environment. The weakening US dollar and lower 10 - year Treasury yields supported precious metals at high levels. Gold has a long - term bullish outlook, and long - term positions can be considered when it retraces to support levels [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets weakened on Wednesday. Japan's anti - dumping investigation on steel from South Korea and China dampened market sentiment. Demand continued to weaken, inventories increased, and production decreased. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended in the short - term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures and spot prices of iron ore weakened slightly. With the expansion of production restrictions in the north, iron ore supply decreased, but port inventories increased, and prices may weaken in the short - term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices were flat, and futures prices weakened slightly. Demand for ferroalloys decreased due to a decline in steel production. Silicon manganese prices were stable, and manganese ore prices were firm. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended [6][7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: US inflation data met expectations overall. The expectation of a rate cut increased, but the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is low. Copper inventories are at a high level, and terminal demand may weaken [8]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose slightly on Wednesday. However, its fundamentals weakened, with domestic and LME inventories increasing. The medium - term upside is limited [8]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, increasing production costs and causing losses for some enterprises. It is in the off - season, with weak demand. Prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong in the short - term [8]. - **Tin**: Supply - side开工率 increased slightly, and the mining end may become looser. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with limited upside [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices fluctuated sharply on Wednesday. Spot prices increased, and the supply shortage due to mine shutdowns supported prices. Long - term bullish outlook, but pay attention to the progress of mine type changes [10][11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices fell on Wednesday. Pay attention to the influence of coking coal and polysilicon, and the cash - flow cost support [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices fell on Wednesday. The number of warehouse receipts increased, indicating stronger hedging and delivery intentions. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [12]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: US crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and the IEA warned of a record supply surplus next year, causing oil prices to decline. Pay attention to the impact of the meeting on promoting a cease - fire in Ukraine [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil costs were low and oscillating, and asphalt prices followed with limited weakness. Inventory removal was slow, and it may continue to be weak and oscillating [14]. - **PX**: PX prices oscillated narrowly. PTA device production cuts and low processing fees limited the recovery, and it will oscillate in the short - term [14]. - **PTA**: PTA prices declined slightly. Profit recovery was limited, and demand growth was restricted. Supply pressure decreased, and it is expected to be range - bound in August [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices fell. Inventory pressure was relieved to a limited extent, and supply may increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with limited upside and a risk of a slight decline [15][16]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices fell due to sector resonance. Terminal orders were average, and inventory accumulated. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [16]. - **Methanol**: Prices oscillated narrowly. Supply and demand contradictions were not prominent, but there were regional differences. It is expected to oscillate, and the spread between contracts is expected to narrow [17]. - **PP**: Spot prices oscillated narrowly. Supply was abundant, and demand was in the off - season. It is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [18]. - **LLDPE**: Prices rose. Supply pressure remained, and demand showed signs of improvement. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT soybean prices rose overnight. The USDA's unexpected reduction in the planting area supported the market. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and Sino - US soybean trade relations [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: High domestic inventories of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal. If there are no major weather risks in South America, there is no stable market foundation in the medium - term. If China continues to purchase US soybeans or Canada's rapeseed products enter the market, prices may face downward pressure [20]. - **Soybean, Rapeseed, and Palm Oil**: Rapeseed oil inventory is high and difficult to reduce, and supply is expected to shrink. Soybean oil's cost is stable, and its supply - demand situation will improve in the fourth quarter. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong. Domestic rapeseed oil was affected by policies, and related oils have limited short - term upside. Attention should be paid to soybean oil's catch - up rally and the buy - soybean - sell - palm oil arbitrage [20]. - **Corn**: Northeast corn prices are weak, with inactive trading. Supply is expected to be sufficient in late August, and the corn futures market is weak [21][22]. - **Hogs**: After continuous price drops, farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Supply pressure may ease, and pig prices may stabilize [22].