投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 萃 【贵金属】贵金属市场周三夜盘小幅上涨，沪金主力合约收至 935.42 元/克，上 涨 0.53%；沪银主力合约收至 12035 元/千克，上涨 0.63%。在避险情绪和美联储 12 月可 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F031 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资咨询证号：Z0022217 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：lizy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's M2 in October decreased but was slightly higher than expected, mainly due to a decrease in household and corporate deposits and an increase in government department deposits. The overall M2 continued to remain at a reasonable level, and the monetary policy remained loose. The year-on-year decline in new social financing was mainly due to a decrease in household credit demand and fiscal financing demand, and the transmission from loose money to loose credit slowed down. Given the current slowdown in domestic economic growth and reduced external shock risks, the monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose. With the completion of the投放 of new policy-based financial instruments in October, the boosting effect on social financing may become more apparent, and the transmission from loose money to loose credit is expected to gradually accelerate. In the short term, financial data indicates a slowdown in overall domestic demand, which is negative for domestic risk assets and the RMB exchange rate. In the medium to long term, the process of loose credit is expected to accelerate further [2]. - M1 slightly declined, while M2 remained at a high level. Currently, the overall capital supply remains stable, the supply of base money increases, and the monetary policy remains loose. With the acceleration of debt resolution, the implementation of fiscal policies, and the investment of policy-based financial instruments, the demand for credit creation is expected to pick up, and M2 is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in the short term [2]. - The new RMB loans in October were lower than expected and decreased year-on-year, mainly due to a significant decline in household sector loans. The new corporate loans increased year-on-year, but the new medium - and long - term corporate loans were affected by factors such as local government debt repayment and the yet - to - be - realized boosting effect of new policy - based financial instruments. The new bill financing increased significantly year - on - year [3]. - The new social financing scale in October was lower than expected and decreased year - on - year. The financing demand of the real economy decreased year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in the financing demand of the household and government sectors. In the short and medium term, government financing may continue to slow down but maintain relatively high demand. The financing demand of the corporate sector is expected to gradually improve in the medium to long term, while the financing demand of the household sector will continue to be dragged down by weak real estate demand. The process of loose credit is expected to accelerate in the medium to long term [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Data - In October, the new RMB loans were 22 billion yuan (expected 50 billion yuan, previous value 129 billion yuan), the new social financing scale was 814.9 billion yuan (expected 1165 billion yuan, previous value 3529.6 billion yuan), and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.2% (expected 8.1%, previous value 8.4%) [1][2]. - M1 year - on - year growth rate was 6.2% (expected 7.0%, a 1% decline from the previous month), M0 year - on - year growth rate was 10.6% (a 0.9% decline) [2]. RMB Loans - New household short - term loans were - 28.66 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.56 billion yuan; new household medium - and long - term loans were - 7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 18 billion yuan [3]. - New corporate loans were 35 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 22 billion yuan. Among them, short - term loans were - 19 billion yuan, the same as the previous year; medium - and long - term loans were 3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14 billion yuan; new bill financing was 50.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 33.12 billion yuan [3]. Social Financing Scale - The new social financing scale in October decreased year - on - year. From the perspective of the structure of new social financing, the credit financing demand of the real economy decreased year - on - year, household and corporate credit declined, corporate bond financing increased, government bond issuance slowed down significantly, and non - standard financing demand decreased slightly [4]. - New credit in October was - 2.01 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31.66 billion yuan. Non - standard assets (trust loans, entrusted loans, and undiscounted bank acceptance bills) decreased by 10.86 billion yuan in total, a year - on - year decrease of 3.58 billion yuan. Corporate bond financing increased by 24.69 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.82 billion yuan. Government bond net financing was 48.93 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 56.02 billion yuan under a high base [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In October, China's economic growth continued to slow down and was lower than expected. The overall domestic demand economic data in October continued to slow down, with the decline in investment continuing to widen and falling short of market expectations, the consumption growth rate continuing to decline but slightly higher than market expectations, and industrial production significantly slowing down in the short term. The short - term investment side continued to slow down. The real estate market continued to slow down and bottom out, infrastructure investment continued to slow down, and manufacturing investment also faced challenges. The short - term domestic commodity supply - demand side showed weak demand and relatively abundant supply. The released data was significantly lower than market expectations, which was short - term negative for the domestic demand - type commodity market. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" work entering the substantial promotion stage was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, the prices of external demand - type commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy oscillated, and the support for precious metals increased due to the resurgence of safe - haven demand [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Production - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises was 4.9%, with an expected 5.5% and a previous value of 6.5%, a significant decline from the previous value and far lower than market expectations. This was mainly due to holiday factors and the slowdown in external demand orders, which led to a slowdown in the increase of industrial enterprise operating rates. Among the three major categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 4.5% year - on - year, the manufacturing industry by 4.9%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 5.4%. High - end manufacturing such as the automobile manufacturing, railway, ship, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing, and computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries still had relatively fast growth rates. In the fourth quarter, with the gradual weakening of the US replenishment demand, the overall growth rate of domestic industrial production might decline but was expected to remain at a relatively high level [3][4]. 3.2 Consumption - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.9%, with an expected 2.7% and a previous value of 3.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from the previous value but slightly higher than market expectations. The slowdown was due to the withdrawal of the consumer goods trade - in policy, the high base of categories such as automobiles, and weak holiday consumption. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods further slowed down under the influence of the trade - in policy withdrawal. The retail sales of consumer goods such as household appliances, furniture, automobiles, and communication equipment showed significant slowdowns, while service - related consumption growth accelerated with policy support. In the short term, the growth rate of commodity consumption was expected to continue to decline, but in the later stage, with the implementation of service consumption stimulus policies and the recovery of residents' wealth effect, domestic consumption would continue to recover [4]. 3.3 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7%, with an expected - 0.8% and a previous value of - 0.5%, and the decline widened by 1.2% and was far lower than expected. The decline rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment all further widened [3][4]. - **Real Estate**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 23.2%, with a 1.9 - percentage - point increase in the decline from the previous month. The year - on - year growth rates of the floor area of commercial housing sold and sales volume were - 19.6% and - 25.1% respectively, with significant increases in the decline rates from the previous values. This was mainly due to the high - base effect of the "9.24 real estate new policy" last year and the mild real estate stimulus policies this year. The real estate market continued to adjust and bottom out, with the transaction activity in the housing market decreasing, and the investment side remaining weak. The year - on - year growth rate of real estate development funds in October was - 21.4%, with a 10.4 - percentage - point increase in the decline. The floor area of newly started construction, construction, and completion of real estate all faced challenges [4]. - **Infrastructure**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 8.9%, with a 4.3 - percentage - point increase in the decline from the previous value. Considering the continuous decline after the end of the photovoltaic rush - to - install market and the constraints of local debt resolution on project reserves and funds for traditional infrastructure, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline [4][5]. - **Manufacturing**: The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment in October was - 6.7%, with a 4.8 - percentage - point increase in the decline from the previous value. It continued to slow down due to the high - base effect last year and the decline in investment willingness caused by "anti - involution". High - tech industries maintained a high level of prosperity, but factors such as tariff uncertainty, the marginal decline in policy funds for large - scale equipment renewal and transformation, and the slowdown in US replenishment demand in the fourth quarter affected manufacturing investment. However, with the support of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments and the implementation of relevant policies, there might be some support for manufacturing investment in the future [4][5]. 3.4 Impact on Commodities - On the demand side, the short - term investment side continued to slow down, and domestic commodity demand as a whole slowed down and was lower than market expectations. On the supply side, industrial production slowed down due to factors such as the decline in foreign demand orders and the slowdown in the increase of industrial enterprise operating rates. The short - term domestic commodity supply - demand side showed weak demand and relatively abundant supply. The "anti - involution" policy had a certain supporting effect on the prices of domestic demand - type commodities. The released data was significantly lower than market expectations, which was short - term negative for the domestic demand - type commodity market. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" work entering the substantial promotion stage was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, due to the overall easing of US trade policies, the impact on the economy weakened, but the short - term government shutdown affected the economy. The prices of external demand - type commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy oscillated and showed significant differentiation, and the support for precious metals increased due to the resurgence of safe - haven demand [3][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, after the end of the longest government shutdown in US history, the market shifted its focus to key US economic data. Concerns about inflation and differences among Fed policymakers regarding the health of the US economy led to a reduced expectation of interest rate cuts. Additionally, several Fed officials adopted a hawkish stance before the release of major economic data, causing an increase in US Treasury yields and a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing prosperity level declined in October, and exports unexpectedly decreased, leading to a slowdown in economic growth and dampening optimistic expectations to some extent. However, China's inflation data in October unexpectedly recovered and rebounded, with the supply - side continuing to exert efforts. Policy - wise, the central bank restarted Treasury bond trading operations to release liquidity into the market, and the domestic monetary policy was intensified, along with abundant liquidity, which boosted domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and the quality of economic growth. The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, and the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. [3] - In terms of assets, the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term. Treasury bonds are expected to rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long. Among commodity sectors, the black sector is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously observe; the non - ferrous sector is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; the energy and chemical sector is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously observe; precious metals are expected to rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: After the end of the government shutdown, the market focused on key economic data. Inflation concerns and differences among Fed officials reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts. Fed officials' hawkish remarks before major data releases led to an increase in US Treasury yields and a decline in global risk appetite. [3] - Domestic: In October, China's manufacturing prosperity declined, and exports unexpectedly decreased, slowing economic growth. However, inflation data unexpectedly recovered, and the supply - side continued to work. The central bank restarted Treasury bond trading to release liquidity, and the monetary policy was intensified, boosting domestic risk appetite. The market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental policies and economic growth. The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, and the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. [3] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, batteries, and industrial metals, the domestic stock market rose significantly. Fundamentally, China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and exports unexpectedly decreased, slowing economic growth and dampening optimism. However, inflation data unexpectedly recovered, and the supply - side continued to work. Policy - wise, the central bank's actions boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, and the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. It is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term. [3][4] Precious Metals - On Thursday night, the precious metals market rose overall. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 956.96 yuan/gram, up 0.11%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 12405 yuan/kilogram, up 0.40%. Due to the sell - off in the market after the US government reopened and several Fed officials' hawkish remarks, precious metals were under some pressure in the short term. Spot gold fell 0.65% to $4171.1 per ounce. Precious metals are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term and buy on dips in the medium - to - long term. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: On Thursday, the domestic steel spot market rebounded slightly, while the futures price continued to be weak. The stock market's rise boosted market sentiment. Fundamentally, real - world demand continued to weaken, but the decline in this week's data slowed down. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by about 6300 tons week - on - week. On the supply side, due to steel mill losses, steel production capacity was further restricted, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 22360 tons week - on - week. In the short term, the steel market will continue to fluctuate within a range, and the room for further decline below 3000 points for rebar is limited. [7] - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to fluctuate. Steel mill losses continued, and iron - water production is expected to decline further. However, with the improvement of market sentiment, the market has started to bet on the bottom of iron - water production. On the supply side, this week's iron ore shipments decreased by 144800 tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 477200 tons week - on - week. However, port inventories increased by 195000 tons on Monday, indicating an oversupply of ore. Although the Simandou iron ore mine has been put into production, it will take time to have a substantial impact on the domestic market. Currently, the key factors determining the iron ore price are the process of the decline in iron - water production and when the bottom will appear. It is advisable to view iron ore with a range - bound trading idea in the short term. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat. The futures price of silicon iron rebounded slightly, while that of silicon manganese weakened. The output of five major steel products decreased slightly, leading to a decline in ferroalloy demand. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5570 - 5620 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5580 - 5630 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's first inquiry price for silicon manganese in November is 5750 yuan/ton, and other steel mills are following suit. The spot price of manganese ore is firm. The mainstream price of semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port is 34.5 yuan/ton - degree, the price of South African high - iron manganese ore is 29.8 - 30 yuan/ton - degree, the price of Gabonese manganese ore is 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of Australian lump ore is in the range of 39.5 - 41 yuan/ton - degree, with slow - growing transactions. The supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly. The operating rate (capacity utilization) of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country is 40.24%, a decrease of 2.75% from last week; the daily output is 28840 tons, a decrease of 835 tons. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5700 yuan/ton. The price of raw material semi - coke is stable. The price of medium - sized semi - coke in Shenmu market is 850 - 920 yuan/ton, the price of small - sized semi - coke is 800 - 850 yuan/ton, and the price of coke powder is 530 - 630 yuan/ton. The supply of silicon iron increased slightly. The operating rate (capacity utilization) of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises in the country is 36.26%, a 0.18% increase from last week; the daily output is 16300 tons, a 0.80% increase (130 tons) from last week. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. [8] Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The US copper inventory continued to rise, approaching 380000 short tons, a historical high, which restricts future import demand. There is a possibility of the Panama copper mine restarting. In China, the destocking of refined copper was less than expected. As of November 13, the social copper inventory was 201100 tons, a 5200 - ton increase from the previous period, still at a relatively high level and the highest in three years. The shutdown of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has intensified the global copper mine shortage, which will support the futures price. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, Shanghai aluminum continued to rise, reaching a three - and - a - half - year high, boosted by the optimistic sentiment after the end of the US government shutdown. Technically, all time frames are in an overbought state, and the hourly chart shows a long upper shadow line, indicating a possible short - term hourly - level correction, while the daily - level trend is unclear. Fundamentally, there is no change, and inventory destocking is still not going well. Although the 620000 - ton inventory is not high, it is not low either. In addition, the arrival of goods at Port Klang led to an increase of 9125 tons in LME aluminum inventory. The market is still worried about future supply, with a tight supply expectation. The market is trading based on expectations and temporarily ignoring the fundamentals. However, as the off - season approaches, the market will eventually return to reality. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short term, but if the expectations are revised later and combined with real - world pressure, aluminum prices will face a significant correction. [10] - **Tin**: On Thursday, the tin price reached a three - and - a - half - year high, driven by macro sentiment and supply concerns. On the supply side, the maintenance of a large - scale smelting enterprise in Yunnan has ended, and the combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi has slightly increased to 69.13%. The actual shortage of tin ore in the mine end continues. Although the mining licenses in Wa State, Myanmar, have been issued, due to the local rainy season and the slow actual resumption of production, the tin ore export volume is still far below the normal level and cannot effectively make up for the current supply gap. On the demand side, the peak season is not prosperous. The operating rate of tin solder in October decreased slightly and remained at a low level. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand and insufficient orders. The pre - installation in the photovoltaic sector in the early stage has overdrawn the later - stage installation demand, and the photovoltaic installation has almost halved since June. After the continuous decline, the social inventory of tin ingots has increased by 349 tons to 7033 tons, mainly due to the combined effect of the increase in supply from the resumption of maintenance and the relatively weak downstream demand. The tin price is at a historical high, and the inhibitory effect of high prices on physical demand has begun to appear. The spot market's acceptance of the current price level is limited, and it is mainly for just - in - time replenishment. In summary, the tin price has support in the medium - to - short term, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on consumption limits the upward space. It is expected to remain volatile at a high level, and risks should be noted. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2601 rose 1.39%, with the latest settlement price at 88360 yuan/ton. The weighted contract added 33853 lots, and the total open interest was 1.0373 million lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate quoted by Steel Union is 87750 yuan/ton (a 1700 - yuan increase from the previous period). The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene is 1050 US dollars/ton (a 30 - dollar increase from the previous period). The production profit of purchasing spodumene is - 907 yuan/ton. On November 6, the evaluation report of the mining right transfer income of Jianxiawo was publicly announced, which may be regarded as the active promotion of the resumption of production in Jianxiawo. The market quickly digested the negative news, and the demand logic still prevails. It is expected to be strong and volatile, but attention should be paid to the repeated disturbances on the supply side and hedging pressure. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon 2601 fell 0.22%, with the latest settlement price at 9180 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's open interest was 267800 lots, adding 41.84 lots. The price of oxygen - containing 553 industrial silicon in East China is 9500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the futures price is at a discount of 355 yuan/ton. After the end of the wet season, the production of industrial silicon in Southwest China has significantly decreased. The demand is relatively stable, and the overall situation is one of weak supply and demand. Attention should be paid to whether effective destocking can be achieved during the dry season. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises, and it is advisable to operate within the range and buy on dips. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the main contract of polysilicon 2601 rose 3.69%, with the latest settlement price at 53940 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's open interest was 144000 lots, adding 2397 lots. The latest price of N - type re -投料 is 51500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period). The price of N - type silicon wafers is 1.3 yuan/piece (a 0.1 - yuan increase from the previous period), the price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (M10) is 0.305 yuan/watt (unchanged from the previous period), and the price of N - type components (centralized): 182mm is 0.67 yuan/watt (unchanged from the previous period). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9130 lots (a 720 - lot decrease from the previous period). There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. There is still support for the spot price of polysilicon under policy expectations, but weak terminal demand makes it difficult for downstream prices to rise. The recent rumor of polysilicon stockpiling has caused disturbances. It is expected that polysilicon will be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips. [13][14] Energy and Chemical - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market remained stable, and the basis of the port methanol market remained stable and slightly weak. The spot negotiation price is 2065 - 2070 yuan/ton, with a basis of about 01 - 40/ - 35; the negotiation price for November delivery is 2085 - 2087 yuan/ton, with a basis of about 01 - 20/ - 18; the negotiation price for December delivery is 2115 - 2118 yuan/ton, with a basis of about 01 + 10/+13. As of November 12, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.5436 million tons, a 56500 - ton increase from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 64900 tons, while the inventory in South China decreased by 8400 tons. The production enterprise inventory was 369300 tons, a 17200 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 4.44% decline. Both the inland and port areas have seen inventory increases. The deterioration of the inland supply - demand situation has made the price lose support and continue to decline. Downstream demand has weakened, and inland plants are restarting. The fundamental pressure is still large, with a downward driving force. However, the firm and rising coal price is squeezing methanol profits, and the price is approaching the import cost. Iranian plants are planned to shut down in mid - November, which provides some support in terms of expectations. The real - world situation still needs substantial improvement. It is expected that the price will continue to decline with fluctuations in the near future, but the decline rate may slow down, and the decline space is limited. [15] - **PP**: The offer price is mainly in a weak and volatile state. The mainstream price of East China drawstring PP is 6330 - 6580 yuan/ton. According to Longzhong Information on November 13, the polyolefin inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is 665000 tons, a 25000 - ton decrease from the previous day. As of November 12, 2025, the sample inventory of polypropylene ports increased by 2300 tons from the previous period, a 3.56% increase, and the inventory has increased compared with last week. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased by 15100 tons from the previous period (November 5, 2025), a 6.61% decrease. Currently, although the demand for polypropylene has improved, the supply growth rate is too fast, leading to an increase in inventory. As the traditional off - season approaches, demand is expected to gradually weaken, while the supply will remain at a high level due to plant restarts. The market fundamentals are under pressure. Coupled with the weak and volatile crude oil price, the cost support is insufficient. It is expected that the polypropylene price will continue to decline. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, with the stock index having a short - term oscillatory rebound; attention should be paid to the domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies later [3][4] - Precious metals are expected to have a short - term oscillatory rebound and a long - term upward trend [5] - For the black commodity sector, it will be in short - term oscillation; the non - ferrous sector will have a short - term oscillatory rebound; the energy and chemical sector will be in short - term oscillation; and the precious metals sector will have a short - term oscillatory rebound [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The market anticipates that a large amount of economic data to be released after the US government reopens will strengthen the Fed's expectation of a December interest rate cut, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an overall increase in global risk appetite [3] - Domestic: China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and exports decreased unexpectedly, but inflation data rebounded beyond expectations, and the central bank's policy increased liquidity, boosting domestic risk appetite [3] Equity Index - Affected by sectors such as cultivated diamonds, photovoltaics, and batteries, the domestic stock market declined slightly. With short - term macro upward driving force increasing, the stock index will have a short - term oscillatory rebound, but attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and policy implementation later [4] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Wednesday night. Due to the decline in US Treasury yields and the weakening of the US dollar index, the precious metals market is expected to have a short - term oscillatory rebound, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [5] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to oscillate at the bottom. In November, the macro - policy was in a vacuum period, demand weakened, and supply was restricted. The steel market will continue to oscillate in the short term, and the decline space below 3000 points for rebar is limited [8] - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded on Wednesday. Although the Simandou iron ore was put into production, the market had already priced in some of the negative news. The key factor for the iron ore price is the decline process and the bottom of pig iron production, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined to varying degrees on Wednesday. Affected by the decline in coal prices and the decrease in demand, the prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [9] Chemicals - Soda Ash: The main contract of soda ash oscillated on Wednesday. Supply increased, and there is a capacity expansion plan in the fourth quarter. With stable demand, the supply pressure remains, and a bearish view is recommended in the medium - to - long term [10] - Glass: The main contract of glass oscillated in a range on Wednesday. Supply remained stable, demand was weak, and inventory was high. Supported by anti - involution policies, it is advisable to buy on dips in the short - term oscillatory range [11] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The Fed has increasing differences on the December interest rate cut. US copper inventories are at a historical high, and domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine will support the price, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [12] - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum price rose strongly on Wednesday. The market sentiment is positive, but there are concerns about future supply. It is expected to be strong in the short term, but there may be a significant correction later [12] - Tin: The supply of tin is still tight, and demand is weak. The social inventory of tin ingots has increased. The tin price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - to - short term [13] - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract of lithium carbonate declined on Wednesday. The market digested the negative news quickly, and the demand logic dominates. It is expected to oscillate strongly, but attention should be paid to supply disturbances and hedging pressure [15] - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon declined on Wednesday. After the end of the wet season, production decreased, and demand was stable. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is advisable to operate within the range and buy on dips [15] - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Wednesday. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and it is advisable to buy on dips [16] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC indicates that global oil supply exceeds demand earlier than expected, and the market is under bearish pressure due to the lack of positive catalysts and stable geopolitical risks [17] - Asphalt: Asphalt prices fell again following crude oil. With weakening cost support and demand, it will continue to explore the bottom, and inventory pressure is increasing [17] - PX: The polyester sector's previous positive factors have been priced in, and terminal demand has declined slightly. PX is still in a tight supply situation, and its price is mainly driven by crude oil cost fluctuations [18] - PTA: Affected by crude oil prices and terminal demand, the expected inventory accumulation in November - December has decreased, but there is still downward pressure in the later period [19] - Ethylene Glycol: The main contract of ethylene glycol continued to decline. Port inventory has increased significantly, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in mid - to - late November [19] - Short - fiber: Short - fiber prices declined slightly following the polyester sector, and there is still significant pressure in the later period, with limited upward space [19] - Methanol: The domestic methanol market was stable, and the port market was weak. Inventory increased both inland and at ports. The price is expected to oscillate downward in the short term, but the decline rate may slow down [20] - PP: The PP price oscillated weakly. Demand improved, but supply growth led to inventory increase. With the approaching of the off - season, the price is expected to continue to decline [21] - LLDPE: The LLDPE price was adjusted. Supply pressure continued to accumulate, demand weakened, and the price is expected to remain under pressure [22] - Urea: The domestic urea market was stable with a slight decline. Supply is expected to increase, demand is differentiated, and the price is expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term [23] Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The CBOT soybean price rose overnight. The market is optimistic about the repair of Sino - US soybean trade relations. Attention should be paid to the USDA report, and if the single - yield is lowered, the US soybean's ending inventory will shrink [24] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the basis is weak. With the repair of Sino - US agricultural trade relations, the import cost of domestic soybeans has increased, and the inventory may rise. Rapeseed meal generally follows the soybean meal market [24] - Oils: Palm oil prices stabilized with cost fluctuations. It is in the production - reduction cycle, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains. Soybean oil's supply - demand pressure has been relieved, and rapeseed oil's inventory has decreased, with a strong basis [25] - Corn: The futures price of corn has been rising recently, driving up the price in the Northeast. With low inventory and increasing processing profits, the price is expected to remain strong [25] - Hogs: The average price of live hogs declined. Supply is loose, but demand is expected to increase seasonally. The price is expected to be weakly stable, and there may be strong support under the futures discount [26][27]

General Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for different asset classes, it offers specific short - term investment suggestions: - For stocks and bonds, short - term cautious long positions are recommended; for commodities, different sectors have different suggestions, including cautious long, cautious short, and cautious observation [3]. Core Views - Overseas, the US labor market shows signs of deterioration, the dollar index is falling, but the potential end of the long - term shutdown boosts global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth has slowed in October, but inflation data has recovered, and the central bank's policies have increased liquidity and boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened, and the market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and economic growth [3][4]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Market Conditions**: Overseas, the ADP predicts a decline in US private - sector jobs, the dollar index is falling, and the potential end of the shutdown boosts global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing and export data in October are weak, but inflation data has recovered, and the central bank's policies have increased liquidity [3]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Stocks and bonds are expected to rebound in the short - term, with cautious long positions. For commodities, black metals are in short - term shock, with cautious observation; non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and some other sectors are in short - term shock and rebound, with cautious long positions; energy and chemical sectors are in short - term shock, with cautious observation [3]. Stocks - **Market Conditions**: Affected by sectors such as artificial intelligence, consumer electronics, and insurance, the domestic stock market has declined slightly. China's economic growth has slowed, but inflation data has recovered, and policies have boosted risk appetite [4]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Stocks are expected to rebound in the short - term, with cautious long positions [4]. Precious Metals - **Market Conditions**: The precious metals market rose on Tuesday night. The expectation of the US government ending the shutdown and potential Fed rate cuts has boosted prices. Spot gold has reached a high since October 23 [4]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Precious metals are in short - term shock and rebound, with a long - term upward trend. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended, and long - term buying on dips is advised [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Spot prices were flat on Tuesday, and futures prices continued to fluctuate. The change in coking coal supply expectations and the decline in coking coal prices have led to a weakening of the steel market. Demand is weak, and supply has decreased. The short - term market may continue to weaken, but the decline below 3000 points for rebar is limited [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures and spot prices weakened slightly on Tuesday. Steel mills' losses have accelerated production cuts, and iron ore demand may further decline. Supply has decreased, but port inventories have increased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices were flat on Tuesday, and futures prices weakened slightly. Steel production has declined, reducing ferroalloy demand. Manganese ore prices are firm, and supply has decreased slightly. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: There are differences within the Fed on interest rate cuts. US copper inventories are at a high level, and there is a risk of the Panama copper mine restarting. Domestic de - stocking is less than expected, but the shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum declined slightly. The market is worried about future supply shortages, but domestic de - stocking is difficult. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there may be a significant correction later [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, and the demand is weak. Tin ingot inventories have increased. The short - to - medium - term price is expected to be supported at the bottom but pressured at the top, with high - level fluctuations [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate futures contract rose on Tuesday. The market has digested negative news, and the demand logic is dominant. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure need attention [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon futures contract declined on Tuesday. Supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon futures contract declined on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The weakness of the crude oil market is offset by the high premium of refined oil products. Supply concerns and technical buying support the price. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate [15]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt has rebounded slightly following crude oil, but the rebound space is limited. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and supply pressure is increasing. Attention should be paid to the cost fluctuations of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: PX has weakened slightly. PTA's high - level operation provides some demand support. The PXN spread has rebounded slightly, and PX is still in a tight supply situation. Attention should be paid to cost changes [16]. - **PTA**: The expectation of inventory accumulation from November to December has decreased, but the actual production cut is not highly confirmed, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation later [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol has declined again and is still under pressure. Port inventories have increased significantly, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in mid - to - late November [16]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber has declined slightly following the polyester sector, and there is still pressure in the later period. The follow - up upward space may be limited [17]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market has weakened. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and the price is expected to decline with fluctuations, but the decline rate may slow down [17][18]. - **PP**: The price of polypropylene is expected to continue to decline. Demand improvement is limited, and supply is increasing. Cost support is insufficient [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of polyethylene is expected to continue to be under pressure. Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weakening, and cost support is insufficient [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is stable with a slight decline. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is differentiated. The short - term market is expected to continue to weaken slightly [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price has declined. The market is optimistic about Sino - US soybean trade relations. Attention should be paid to USDA reports. If the USDA lowers the yield per unit, the US soybean's ending inventory will shrink, strengthening the cost - repair logic [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the basis is weak. With the improvement of Sino - US agricultural trade relations, the cost of imported soybeans has increased, and the risk of future shortages has decreased. Rapeseed meal generally follows the soybean meal market [20]. - **Oils**: Palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle, and the market is weak and stable. The supply - demand situation of soybean oil is still unbalanced, and the price is stable within a range. Rapeseed oil inventories are decreasing, and the basis is strengthening [22]. - **Corn**: The futures price has risen continuously, driving up the price in the Northeast production area. Inventories are low, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight increase [22]. - **Pigs**: The planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has decreased, and the supply pressure has eased. Demand has increased with the cooling weather. The pork price is expected to be weak and stable, and the futures price may be supported [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government shutdown is expected to end, boosting global risk appetite. The dollar index has declined overall, and the risk appetite in the global market has increased significantly. In China, the manufacturing sentiment declined in October, and exports decreased unexpectedly, leading to a slowdown in economic growth. However, inflation data in October rebounded unexpectedly, and the signing of a trade agreement between China and the US reduced external risks. The central bank restarted treasury bond trading to release liquidity, increasing domestic risk appetite. The short - term upward drive of the macro - market has strengthened, and the stock index has rebounded in the short term. Attention should be paid to the domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies in the future [3][4]. - The short - term macro - market shows an upward trend. The stock index and treasury bonds are expected to rebound with caution in the short term. In the commodity sector, black metals will fluctuate in the short term, non - ferrous metals will rebound with short - term fluctuations, energy and chemicals will fluctuate, and precious metals will rebound with short - term fluctuations and maintain an upward trend in the long - term [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The US Senate's compromise bill has passed the initial hurdle, and the federal government shutdown is expected to end, boosting global risk appetite. The dollar index has declined. - Domestic: In October, China's manufacturing sentiment declined, and exports decreased unexpectedly, slowing down economic growth. However, inflation data rebounded unexpectedly, and the signing of a trade agreement between China and the US reduced external risks. The central bank restarted treasury bond trading to release liquidity, increasing domestic risk appetite. The short - term upward drive of the macro - market has strengthened, and the stock index has rebounded in the short term. Attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies in the future [3][4]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as beverage manufacturing, hotel tourism, and airport shipping, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term upward drive of the macro - market has strengthened, and the stock index has rebounded in the short term. Attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies in the future. Short - term cautious buying is recommended [4]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose significantly on Monday night. The main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver increased. Weak US economic data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, boosting the demand for non - interest - bearing assets. Precious metals will rebound with short - term fluctuations and maintain an upward trend in the long - term. Short - term cautious buying is recommended, and long - term buying on dips is advisable [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Monday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets were flat, and trading volume remained low. CPI and PPI data improved, and market sentiment recovered. Last week, steel demand peaked, and the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 495,100 tons. Inventory continued to decline, but the decline slowed. Supply decreased, and the steel market is still in a negative feedback logic in the short term, but the downward space for rebar near 3000 points is limited [7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Monday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. Steel mills' losses accelerated production cuts, and the daily average pig iron output of blast furnaces decreased to 2.34 million tons. Steel mills' demand for iron ore may further decline, and they are cautious about restocking. Supply has shown marginal improvement. The key factor determining the iron ore price is the decline process of pig iron output, and short - term range - bound fluctuations are expected [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. Last week, the output of five major steel products decreased slightly, and the demand for ferroalloys declined. The supply of silicon manganese and silicon iron decreased slightly. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue range - bound fluctuations [8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Monday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated. Supply increased this week, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter, maintaining a loose supply pattern. Demand remained stable. The industry lacks clear policy support, and a bearish view is recommended in the medium - to - long - term [9]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the main contract of glass fluctuated within a range. Affected by Shahe news, the glass price fluctuated greatly. Supply and the number of production lines remained stable. Demand was weak year - on - year, and the inventory of float glass was relatively high. Supported by anti - involution policies, glass is expected to be strong in the short term due to its low valuation and the impact of Shahe [9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US copper inventory is approaching 370,000 short tons, a historical high, which restricts future import demand. There is a possibility of the restart of a Panamanian copper mine. The destocking of refined copper in China is less than expected, and the social inventory is still at a relatively high level. The shutdown of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has tightened the global copper supply, supporting the futures price. Short - term high - level fluctuations are expected [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Monday, the price of Shanghai aluminum rose, with a long lower shadow. The news of the US ending the shutdown boosted market risk appetite. The market is worried about future supply shortages. Domestic destocking is not going well. The market is trading based on expectations, ignoring fundamentals for now. In the short term, it is expected to be strong [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight. The combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased slightly. The tin ore supply from Myanmar is still far below normal levels. Demand is weak, and the social inventory of tin ingots has increased this week. The tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the medium - to - short - term [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Monday, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose significantly. Market sentiment is positive, and demand is the dominant factor. It is expected to be strong with fluctuations, but attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose. After the end of the wet season, production in Southwest China decreased significantly. Supply and demand are both weak. It is expected to fluctuate, and buying on dips is recommended [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the main contract of polysilicon rose. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. The spot price is supported by policy expectations, but terminal demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expected end of the US government shutdown has boosted market sentiment and oil prices. A large amount of data will be released this week to assess global supply. The market is focusing on US sanctions. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range due to geopolitical uncertainties [16]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices have continued to break new lows and are still in the process of bottom - seeking. The basis is low, and trading volume is limited. There is a slight pressure to accumulate inventory in social and factory warehouses. As it enters the off - season, the market focuses on low - price supplies, and the inventory pressure will increase. The supply pressure has increased due to the recovery of some factories in Shandong. Attention should be paid to the cost fluctuations of crude oil [16]. - **PX**: The anti - involution expectation in the polyester sector has boosted the price of PX, but the upward momentum is slowing. PTA's high operating rate provides some demand support for PX. The PXN spread has rebounded slightly, and PX is still in a tight supply situation. The strong overseas refined oil market may provide cost support for PX. Attention should be paid to cost changes [17]. - **PTA**: News of joint production cuts by leading manufacturers has boosted market sentiment, and the main contract has risen. The downstream operating rate remains high, but the actual production cuts are not confirmed, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future. The upward pressure exists in the short - term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is still in a low - level range - bound fluctuation and is under pressure. Port inventory has accumulated significantly, and the downstream operating rate is neutral. The shipping volume is low, and the arrival volume is high. There is a large pressure to accumulate inventory in mid - to - late November, and caution is required when entering the market [18]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber has risen slightly following the polyester sector, but the future pressure is large. Terminal orders are seasonally declining, and the operating rate of short - fiber has decreased in some areas, with limited inventory accumulation. The future upward space is limited, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [18]. - **Methanol**: The inventory in the inland and ports has increased. The supply - demand situation in the inland has deteriorated, and the price has lost support. The downstream market is weak, and the restart of inland plants has increased supply pressure. However, the rising coal price has squeezed methanol profits, and the price is approaching the import cost. Iranian plants are planned to shut down in November, providing some support. The price is expected to decline with fluctuations in the short - term, but the decline rate may slow down [18]. - **PP**: The demand for polypropylene has improved, but the supply growth rate is too fast, leading to inventory increases. As the traditional off - season approaches, demand is expected to weaken, and supply will remain high due to plant restarts. The market is under pressure, and the price is expected to continue to decline [19]. - **LLDPE**: The core contradiction in the polyethylene market is the continuous accumulation of supply pressure. New production capacity is being released, and previously shut - down plants are restarting. The downstream peak - season effect is expected to decline after peaking in early November. The weakening crude oil price provides limited cost support. The price is expected to remain under pressure [19]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea is expected to increase, and the supply is becoming more relaxed. The demand is differentiated: agricultural fertilization in the north is coming to an end, and compound fertilizer enterprises are cautious about purchasing urea. Exports are restricted by policies. The short - term market is expected to continue to weaken in a narrow range [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT January soybean contract rose overnight. The market is optimistic about the restoration of Sino - US soybean trade. The US soybean export inspection volume last week was 1.088577 million tons. Attention should be paid to the USDA's crop production and WASDE reports. The weather and planting conditions in South American soybean - producing areas are currently normal, with a stable high - yield expectation. If the USDA lowers the yield per unit, the ending inventory of US soybeans will shrink, strengthening the cost - repair logic [20]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The supply and demand of soybean meal are currently loose, and the basis is weak. With the restoration of Sino - US agricultural trade, the pricing cost of imported soybeans in China has increased, and the risk of future shortages has decreased [21]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of soybean oil exceeds demand, but the price is stable within a range due to the increase in the pricing cost of imported soybeans. The commercial inventory of soybean oil has decreased. The inventory of rapeseed oil is still high, but the rapeseed inventory is running out. Affected by the uncertainty of Sino - Canadian trade, traders are reluctant to sell, supporting the strengthening of the basis [21]. - **Palm Oil**: According to the MPOB report, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.02% to 2.04 million tons in October, exports increased by 18.58% to 1.69 million tons, and inventory increased by 4.4% to 2.46 million tons. Palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The market is weak and stable, and the risk of all negative factors being priced in has increased. The domestic market has no new purchase orders and will fluctuate and stabilize with the cost [22]. - **Corn**: The oversupply situation of corn has not changed. There is a large amount of on - the - ground grain in the production areas, and middle - level traders are not willing to build inventories. The inventories in northern ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are low, and the profit of deep - processing has increased. The strong wheat price provides some support [22]. - **Pigs**: The planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms in November has decreased month - on - month. Pig farmers are reluctant to sell due to losses and a high price difference between fat and lean pigs, reducing the supply pressure. As the weather cools, seasonal demand has increased, and food processing enterprises may stock up in advance. Although the current supply - demand situation is still loose, the market is optimistic, and the pig price is expected to be supported [23].