投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年6月25日 研究所晨会观点精萃 分析师 贾利军 宏观金融：美元指数走弱，全球风险偏好升温 【宏观】 海外方面，美联储主席鲍威尔重申降息可以等待，并不急于降息；以及 受助于以色列和伊朗停火，全球避险情绪降温；短期美元指数走弱，全球风险偏 好整体升温。国内方面，中国 5 月消费增长强劲，但投资和工业生产有所放缓， 经济增长整体稳健，短期有助于提振国内风险偏好;而且,短期中东地缘政治紧 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 张局势缓和以及美联储官员偏鸽的政策表态支撑国内风险偏好。资产上：股指短 期震荡反弹，短期谨慎做多。国债短期高位震荡，谨慎观望。商品板块来看，黑 色短期低位震荡，短期谨慎观望；有色短期震荡偏强，短期谨慎做多；能化短期 波动加剧，谨慎观望；贵金属短期高位震荡，谨慎观望。 【股指】 在电池、人形机器人以及汽车等板块的带动下，国内股市继续上涨。 基本面上,中国 5 月消费增长强劲,但投资和工业生产有所放缓,经济增长 整体稳健,短期有助于提振国内风险偏好;而且，短期中东地缘政治紧张局势 缓和以及美联储官员偏鸽的政策表态支撑国内风险偏好。 ...

研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资咨询 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 会 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F0314451 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 李卓雅 【贵金属】黄金市场周四小幅回撤，沪金主力合约跌至 784 元/克一线，白银波动 加剧回落至 8814 一线。美联储维持鹰派表达，上调失业率预测同时降低经济预 期，鲍威尔多次强调对于通胀的担忧。 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 宏观金融：美联储维持利率不变，全球风险偏好整体降温 明道雨 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F0314451 ...

中东冲突显著升级，避险属性支撑金价走强 东海贵金属周度策略 东海期货研究所宏观策略组 2025-06-16 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 郭泽洋 从业资格证号：F03136719 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：guozy@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黄金：观点总结&操作建议 | 货币属性 | 本周美元指数继续走弱，周线收跌下行至98.11。周初市场聚焦中美贸易谈判及通 胀预期，美元窄幅波动，周中美国CPI数据意外疲软，叠加周四PPI涨幅不及预期， | | --- | --- | | | 强化市场对美联储9月启动降息的押注，美指暴跌至97.60新低。周五中东地缘危 机骤变，资金流向避险资产，欧元兑美元下跌0.4%，美元指数结束连续下跌行情。 | | | 本周CPI与PPI数据连续不及预期且美国6月一年期通胀率预期初值 5.1%有所回落 | | 金融属性 | 叠加就业市场疲软，美联储降息概率有所回升。当前CME FedW ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the intensification of the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the global risk appetite has significantly decreased, while the domestic risk appetite has also cooled overall. However, the short - term net export has strengthened the economic pull, which helps to boost the domestic risk preference to some extent. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is in short - term shock, with cautious short - term long positions; the treasury bond is in short - term high - level shock, with cautious observation; each commodity sector also shows different trends, and corresponding short - term operation suggestions are given [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The attack on Iran by Israel has intensified the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, leading the market to buy safe - haven assets, a short - term rebound of the US dollar, and a significant decline in the global risk preference. - Domestic: China's May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected. The short - term net export has strengthened the economic pull, which helps to boost the domestic risk preference. However, due to the intensified geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the domestic risk appetite has cooled overall, and the weak corporate credit in May indicates insufficient real demand. - Asset performance: The stock index is in short - term shock, with cautious short - term long positions; the treasury bond is in short - term high - level shock, with cautious observation; among the commodity sectors, the black metals are in short - term low - level shock, with cautious observation; the non - ferrous metals are in short - term shock, with cautious observation; the energy and chemical products are in short - term rebound, with cautious long positions; the precious metals are in short - term high - level strong shock, with cautious long positions [3]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market has declined overall, dragged down by sectors such as beauty care, Internet e - commerce, and film and television theaters. The short - term net export has strengthened the economic pull, which helps to boost the domestic risk preference, but the overall domestic risk preference has cooled. The current market trading logic focuses on the geopolitical risk in the Middle East, changes in US trade policies, and the progress of trade negotiations. In the short term, the intensified geopolitical risk in the Middle East has cooled the market sentiment. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. Precious Metals - Last week, gold returned to an upward trend, breaking through the $3450 level, while silver was in high - level consolidation with a slight decline, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded. The US inflation data has cooled comprehensively, and the employment data has weakened. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has escalated sharply. Next week, the evolution of the Middle East situation will be the main line. Gold may continue to be strong in the short term, while silver will remain in a consolidation market due to the suppression of industrial demand [5]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets slightly stabilized last Friday, but the actual demand continued to weaken in the off - season. The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 14.07 tons week - on - week, and the demand peak has been further confirmed. The decline in the production of the five major steel products has increased this week, mainly contributed by rebar. Considering the considerable profits of steel mills, the supply may remain at a high level in the short term. The steel market is expected to be in range - bound shock in the short term [6][7]. Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore slightly declined last Friday. The molten iron output has decreased for five consecutive weeks, but considering the good profitability of steel mills, the molten iron output may still remain at a high level. The global iron ore shipments and arrivals have increased this week, and the port inventory has also slightly increased. The medium - term downward trend of iron ore prices is difficult to change, but the high molten iron output will support the prices. Short - term range - bound shock is expected [7]. Ferrosilicon/Ferromanganese - The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese slightly rebounded last Friday. The demand for ferroalloys continued to decline. The procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferromanganese in June increased compared with May. The spot price of manganese ore remained weak. The market of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is expected to be in range - bound shock in the short term [8]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has escalated, increasing the probability of regional hot conflict, and crude oil faces similar risks as in 2022. The spot market was already tight before the conflict, but the long - term supply increase pattern remains unchanged. It is not recommended to chase long positions in the short term [9]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt has risen following the sharp increase in oil prices. The recent shipment volume has remained stable, and the inventory depletion has stagnated. As the demand approaches the peak season, the future depletion situation should be monitored. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [9]. PX - There are still many maintenance plans from June to July, and the PTA device operation rate has increased significantly. With the recent sharp rise in crude oil prices, the PX price will continue to be in a strong - side shock in the short term [9]. PTA - After the return of device maintenance, the supply has increased significantly, and the downstream production reduction continues. It is expected to turn into a slight inventory accumulation in June. After the June contract ends, the tightness of spot liquidity may be alleviated. It is expected to decline in the short term due to the increase in crude oil prices [9]. Ethylene Glycol - The short - term return of synthetic gas - based devices and the decline in downstream production reduction operation rate have led to a low decline in the short - term port visible inventory and a slight inventory accumulation in some factories. It is necessary to wait for the recovery of downstream demand, and the inventory depletion is postponed. The price will remain in shock [10][11]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber generally follows the polyester sector in a strong - side shock pattern. The terminal orders have recovered slowly, and the operation rate has declined. The inventory has accumulated again. It will follow the upward movement of the polyester sector due to the recent rise in oil prices [11]. Methanol - The reduction of port arrival plans has increased the concern about the tightness of cargo circulation, and the methanol price has strengthened under the promotion of geopolitical factors. There is still an upward driving force in the short term. However, the operation rate of inland devices has gradually increased, and the supply is loose. The overall industrial inventory is still low, and the long - term price has room to decline [11]. PP - The PP production has increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the new production capacity is still being put into operation. The downstream operation rate has slightly declined, and the fundamentals are deteriorating. But the futures price has rebounded following the energy and chemical products due to the rise in crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical factors to prevent a sharp fall after the rise [11]. LLDPE - In the short term, due to the influence of geopolitics, the contradiction in the PE market is concentrated on the cost side, and the price has rebounded following crude oil. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical factors to prevent a sharp fall after the rise [11]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The US consumer confidence has improved to some extent, but consumers are still cautious about the economic trend. The Sino - US talks in London have achieved certain results, but there is no excessive surprise. As the tariff suspension deadline on July 9 approaches, attention may turn to the high - tariff risk again. The demand peak season is coming to an end, and there is a risk of marginal decline in demand. If the production remains high and the demand continues to decline, inventory accumulation will start. It will be in shock in the short term [12]. Aluminum - From Wednesday to Friday last week, the Shanghai Aluminum 06 contract rose significantly for three consecutive days. The spot price increase was similar to the futures price in the first two days, and the premium changed little. On Friday, the spot price increase was much smaller than the futures price, and the premium declined significantly [12]. Aluminum Alloy - In the short and medium term, the market sentiment is warm, and it will be in a slightly strong shock. However, due to the seasonal off - season of demand and potential macro risks, and the obvious seasonal characteristics of ADC12 price, the upside space is limited [12]. Tin - On the supply side, the domestic tin ore is tight, the processing fee is low, and the combined operation rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has dropped significantly. The resumption of production in Myanmar may be delayed, and Thailand has suspended the transportation of tin ore from Myanmar. On the demand side, it has entered the off - season, and the orders in the electronics and automotive industries have decreased. The inventory has increased slightly. The price will be in a strong - side shock in the short term, but the upside space is under pressure [13]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The CBOT grain market is supported by the geopolitical conflict, and the US soybeans are also supported by the US soybean oil market in the short term. The bull market of US soybean oil dominated by support policies has room for correction. The weather supports a good harvest. The US soybeans will maintain a large - range market, and the price may be strong in the short term due to the short - term net long - position covering [15]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The inventory of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills may continue to recover, and the weak basis market continues. The market has priced in the future shortage of imported soybeans more. The domestic rapeseed import supply is tightening, and the port inventory is decreasing. The futures - end risk preference of soybean meal and rapeseed meal may increase, and the low - valued spot soybean meal may attract more buying interest, which will strengthen the long - position support of soybean meal [15]. Oils and Fats - The US EPA has modified the RFS rules, and the RVO meets market expectations. The Israel - Iran conflict has boosted the international oil and fat risk preference. The domestic palm oil import profit is inverted, and the shipment has improved. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are stable, but the short - term may follow the external market to be strong, and the soybean - palm oil price inversion may further expand [15]. Corn - The wheat purchase policy has improved the market sentiment, and the new wheat listing has increased the market grain supply. The flour mill operation rate is not high, and the demand for flour is low. The corn market has seen a decrease in short - term shipments, and the spot price has generally risen. The wheat - corn price difference has shrunk, and the corn may face a high - level consolidation in the short term [15]. Hogs - The pig - raising enterprises have significantly reduced the weight of hogs, and the planned slaughter has been completed smoothly. The pig price has been under pressure. The short - term weather has affected the slaughter, and the purchase and storage orders have increased. The pig price shows signs of stabilization. The futures 09 contract has rebounded significantly. However, the pig market is still in the off - season, and the 09 contract's profit expectation should be reduced [15].

调 研 报 告 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 研 联系人 武冰心 从业资格证号：F03118003 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：wubx@qh168.com.cn 2025年6月13日 [Table_Title] 唐山地区黑色产业链调研报告 [table_main] 投资要点： HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 8 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 东 海 调 黑 色 金 属 [Table_Re port] 钢厂接单情况不错，调研钢厂的订单普遍接到15-30天之后，超卖幅度偏高。分品种看， 中厚板、钢板桩这些造船、基建用钢需求表现较好，建筑业用钢需求表现较差。另外，因 未来两个月是需求淡季，贸易端及下游对需求预期较差，部分钢厂反应中下游拿货有放缓 迹象。 钢厂利润依旧可观，调研钢厂反应吨钢利润普遍在150-160元/吨之间，部分钢企的钢坯利 润可以到200元/吨。且所调研企业基本都处于满产状态，仅一家企业 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 彭亚勇 【贵金属】周四黄金市场延续上行态势，沪金上涨至 786 元/克，沪银小幅回落至 8779 元一线。中东紧张局势加剧，美伊将于 6 月 15 日举行伊核问题新一轮会谈， 美方决定撤离非 ...