Tabl e_Title 2025 年 2 月 24 日 大类资产运行周报（20250217-20250221） 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 1.96% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -1.43% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.08% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.10% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.02% | | 美元指数 | 分析师 -0.14% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn -0.28% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 0.08% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20241118- 20241122)- 风险偏 ...

| | | 2025年2月17日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国投期货 | 范丽军 | 期货从业号: F03097698 | | | | 投资咨询号: Z0018336 | | 【50ETF】 | | 当月合约距离到期还剩 | | 7 | 天 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 标的物价格 | 5HV | 10HV | 20HV | 当月IV | 当月近1年 | 当月近2年 | | 次月近1年IV分位 | 次月近2年 | | | | | | | | IV分位数 | IV分位数 | 次月IV | 数 | IV分位数 | | 2025/2/13 | 2.702 | 9.19% | 9.51% | 11.51% | 14.20% | 43.20% | 30.20% | 15.47% | 53.50% | 47.70% | | 2025/2/14 | 2.719 | 7.51% | 9.53% | 11.44% | 14.17% | 43.20% | 30.20 ...

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 2 月 10 日 就业数据仍具韧性 美元降息预期降温 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 M 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 1.38% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.10% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.47% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.62% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.27% | | 美元指数 | 分析师 -0.38% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | 0.84% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 0.28% | 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20241104- 20241108)- 特朗普当选美 ...

- The report primarily discusses the potential impacts of Trump's policies on financial and commodity derivative markets, with a focus on macroeconomic dynamics, energy, chemicals, metals, and agricultural products[1][3][6] - It highlights the influence of Trump's trade policies, including tariffs and sanctions, on various sectors such as oil, natural gas, chemicals, and metals, emphasizing the potential for supply chain disruptions and price volatility[6][10][20] - The analysis includes specific commodity impacts, such as the potential for increased oil prices due to sanctions on Russian oil and possible tariffs on Canadian oil imports, as well as the implications for U.S. natural gas exports and global LNG demand[10][12][13] - The report also examines the effects of trade policies on agricultural products, including soybeans, corn, and canola, noting shifts in trade flows and the potential for reduced U.S. market share in China due to competition from Brazil and other countries[38][40][41] - It discusses the broader implications of Trump's policies on global trade dynamics, including the potential for increased trade tensions and the reconfiguration of supply chains, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations[3][18][33]

Global Asset Performance - Emerging market stock index increased by 1.23% while developed market stock index rose by 2.71% during the week of January 13-17, 2025[1] - Global bond index gained 0.91%, and global government bond index rose by 0.88%[1] - The dollar index decreased by 0.25%, indicating a weakening of the dollar[1] - The RJ/CRB commodity price index increased by 1.67%, and the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index rose by 1.65%[1] Domestic Asset Performance - In China, December exports showed a year-on-year increase, while imports turned positive[3] - New social financing in December increased by 924.9 billion yuan, while new RMB loans decreased by 180 billion yuan[3] - The A-share market saw a weekly increase of 2.31%, with the major indices collectively rising[14] - The domestic commodity market also experienced a weekly increase, particularly in energy sectors, with the WIND energy index rising by 7.24%[18] Market Outlook - The report highlights the need to monitor the overall policy actions of the Trump administration, as they are expected to have a significant impact on the market[20]

国内大类资产表现情况：股市分化 债市偏强运行 商品上涨 12 月 23 日—12 月 27 日当周，国务院主要部委陆续召开年度会议，持续推进中央经济 工作会议部署。国内经济仍在复苏过程中。股市分化，债市延续偏强运行，商 品市场整体上涨。综合来看，商品＞债＞股。 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------| | | | | | | 全球主要资产表现 | | | | | 近一周变动 | | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 0.99% | | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 主要资产涨跌幅表现 发达市场股市指数 | 0.86% | | | 全球债券指数 | -0.33% | | | 全球国债指数 | -0.42% | | | 姓名 全球信用债指数 | 分析师 -0.22% | | | SAC 执业证书编号： 美元指数 | S1111111111111 0.16% | | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxx ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The US economy in 2024 is characterized by a "stability" tone, with the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts to stabilize dollar liquidity[10] - China's economy in 2024 faced challenges in domestic demand recovery, with a gradual policy response to address structural issues[11][25] - The policy framework in China focuses on both short-term and long-term measures, including debt resolution and fiscal stimulus to support economic recovery[26] Policy and Market Trends - The US election outcome in 2024 will significantly impact global economic policies, with potential shifts in trade and fiscal strategies under a Republican administration[31] - China's policy response to external pressures includes expanding domestic demand and implementing fiscal measures to counterbalance trade tensions[104][126] - The interaction between US and Chinese policies will shape global macroeconomic conditions, with a focus on demand-side reforms in China and supply-side reforms in the US[31][126] Asset Class Analysis - The 2025 asset class framework is built around financial conditions and domestic demand recovery, with a transition from "financial headwinds/weak domestic demand" to "financial tailwinds/domestic demand recovery"[7] - Key themes for 2025 include increased volatility in exchange rates, cautious optimism in the bond market, and a focus on dividend stocks in the equity market[7] - Commodities are expected to see structural convergence, with a focus on reflation opportunities driven by US economic cooling and domestic policy support[7] Geopolitical and Trade Dynamics - The US-China trade relationship will be influenced by tariff policies, with potential impacts on global inflation and economic stagnation[121] - The resolution of geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, will play a crucial role in shaping global capital flows and economic recovery[63][71] - The US dollar's strength will be influenced by global economic conditions, with potential weakening if geopolitical tensions ease and non-US economies recover[63][91]

Production Trends - India's total automobile production increased from 2.84 million units in 1994-95 to 28.44 million units in 2023-24, a growth of 902.2% with a CAGR of 8%[10] - Passenger car production rose from 310,000 units to 4.9 million units, marking a 1462.4% increase and a CAGR of 9.6%[13] - Two-wheeler production surged from 2.2 million units to 21.47 million units, achieving an 877.9% increase with a CAGR of 7.9%[19] Domestic Demand Trends - Domestic automobile sales grew from 2.86 million units to 23.85 million units, a 734.9% increase with a CAGR of 7.3%[26] - Passenger car domestic sales increased from 320,000 units to 4.22 million units, a 1235.6% rise with a CAGR of 9%[30] - Two-wheeler domestic sales rose from 2.21 million units to 17.97 million units, a 713.6% increase with a CAGR of 7.2%[35] Export Trends - Total automobile exports grew from 180,000 units to 4.5 million units, a 2364.8% increase with a CAGR of 11.3%[44] - Two-wheeler exports surged from 120,000 units to 3.46 million units, a 2840.1% increase with a CAGR of 11.9%[52] - Passenger car exports increased from 24,000 units to 672,000 units, a 2684% rise with a CAGR of 11.7%[48]

国投期货 11月中国物价数据快报 2024年12月9日 星期一 国投期货｜宏观金融团队 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 中国11月CPI同比上涨0.2%，低于预期涨0.5%，前值涨0.3%;从环比看，CPI下降0.6%，降幅比上月扩大0.3个 百分点。核心CPI继续回升,同比上涨0.3%,涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。在11月份0.2%的CPI同比变动中, 翘尾影响约为0.1个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为0.1个百分点，CPI翘尾因素的提高是CPI上升的主要 贡献因素。从结构来看，CPI同比进一步走弱，食品通胀超季节性下降影响是主要拖累。 今年11月气温偏高， 蔬菜、水果等鲜活食品供给平稳，加上猪肉价格走低，食品价格上涨1.0%，涨幅比上月回落1.9个百分点；非 食品价格由上月下降0.3%转为持平。PPI方面，11月PPI同比下降2.5%，好于预期下降2.7%，前值降2.9%。在 11月份-2.5%的PPI同比变动中，翘尾影响约为-0.3个百分点，今年价格变动的新影响约为-2.2个百分点。其 中，生产资料价格下降2.9%，降幅比上月收窄0.4个百分点；生活资料价格下降1.4%，降 ...

Employment Data - In November 2024, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, significantly up from the previous month's 36,000 and exceeding the forecast of 220,000[3] - The revisions for September and October showed an upward adjustment of 56,000 jobs, with September revised from 223,000 to 255,000 and October from 12,000 to 36,000[3] - The service sector contributed approximately 70% of the new jobs, while manufacturing saw the largest month-over-month increase of 70,000 jobs compared to October[3] Unemployment and Labor Market - The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, surpassing the expected 4.1%[3] - The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[3] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month and maintained a year-over-year growth of 4.0%, both exceeding expectations[3] Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December increased from 67% to 85%[3]