Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea, Methanol, Pure Benzene, Styrene, Propylene, Plastic, PVC, Caustic Soda, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Glass, Soda Ash, Bottle Chip: Investment ratings are provided with star symbols, where red stars represent a predicted upward trend and green stars represent a predicted downward trend. One star means a bias towards long/short with a driving force for an upward/downward trend but limited operability on the trading floor. Two stars mean holding long/short with a clearer upward/downward trend and the market condition is evolving. Three stars mean an even clearer long/short trend and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities. White stars mean the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1][9] Core Views - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sub - sectors. Some products are affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalances, seasonal changes, and raw material price fluctuations [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the futures and spot markets and an expansion of the basis. - For polyolefins, the peak season demand was weak, with mainly rigid demand procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity on the supply side led to a significant increase in domestic production this year, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. Production enterprises accumulated inventory during the double festivals, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holiday, causing prices to be under pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price fell. The pure benzene futures price once dropped below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded following the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and the listed price of Sinopec remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, the port inventory decreased, the actual fundamentals were okay, but the basis weakened compared to before the holiday. High import volume and the expectation of future demand decline continued to drag down the market. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower within the day, and the overall center of gravity moved down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price first decreased and then increased during the holiday, remaining basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost side of styrene. On the supply - demand fundamentals, the peak season demand was weak. Due to the expansion of production capacity, the domestic supply increased significantly. The total inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year, showing a trend of oscillatory inventory accumulation after June. The supply - side pressure was large, suppressing the styrene price, and the styrene market was in a bearish pattern [3] Polyester - The overseas oil price fell during the holiday. The prices of PX and PTA weakened in the morning session and then rebounded in the afternoon due to the oil price recovery. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and the East China device reduced its load due to an accident. In the short term, PX was expected to be under pressure, and the PTA segment repaired its profit. However, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical was planned for maintenance, and the polyester load was expected to be maintained. The short - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials was okay. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand was expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation would still be under pressure in the long run. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday. The fundamentals were weak, and the main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark within the day. In the medium term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation would gradually weaken in the fourth quarter. Under the expectation of inventory accumulation, the 1 - 5 spread was under pressure to decline. - The new production capacity of short fiber was limited, and the operation rate was at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates. The recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It was recommended to continue to be long in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory. The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, as the weather turned cooler, the demand was expected to weaken. Overcapacity was a long - term pressure, and the processing margin was continuously under pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises made large - scale external purchases, and enterprises had sufficient orders to be delivered, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. The import was expected to remain sufficient, the port was expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the short - term weakness would continue. The long - term outlook was relatively positive. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and changes in overseas devices. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, the supply remained high, and enterprises faced great pressure to sell. Affected by weather and logistics factors, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period might have ended, so the short - term boost to the market was limited. The domestic supply - demand situation of urea remained loose. Attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was low, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation pattern. The integrated chlor - alkali enterprises still had profits, but the cost support was not obvious. In a weak real - situation pattern, PVC might show a weak - oscillatory trend. - The caustic soda futures price dropped significantly. There were still vehicle - waiting phenomena among downstream buyers, and the purchase price might be further reduced. The inventory increased compared to the previous period. There were maintenance plans for caustic soda in North and East China in October, but the scale was small. Since there were still profits, the supply was still operating at a high level. The liquid caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan was high, and the downstream profit margin shrank. They were resistant to high - priced products. The weak real - situation pattern continued, but there might be restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production. Since the strong - expectation could not be falsified, it was recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash futures price was in a weak state. The inventory decreased before the holiday and increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry increased after a decrease. It was expected that the ignition speed would slow down in the future, and the incremental rigid demand for heavy soda was limited. There were few maintenance plans in October, the industry's current operating pressure was not large, and the supply would operate at a high level. The long - term supply - demand surplus situation remained unchanged. Opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but be cautious when approaching the cost level. - The glass futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient. The industry seasonally accumulated inventory, and some regions increased their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some project orders increased. Whether Shajiahe would intensively use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously monitored. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to the weak - real - situation trading. However, with the current low valuation, the expected decline range is also limited. In the future, a low - buying strategy near the cost level can be considered [8]

| | | USDA数据显示,预计美国三季度大豆库存为3.16亿蒲式耳,低于市场预期,同比减少8%,美豆短期上涨。但由 于美国政府停摆，USDA官方网站已于国庆假期期间暂停全部服务，后续10月供需报告或延后。十一假期前阿根 廷取消豆类免税政策期间,国内大约进口了220-230万吨阿根廷大豆。国内方面,目前看7-11月大豆到冰量充 足，且国产大豆产量有望继续站上2100万吨，四季度供应整体问题不大，明年一季度整体供应或趋紧。目前中 美贸易尚未恢复，豆粕行情受国外政策扰动太大，继续观望等待机会，长期我们继续谨慎看多连粕。 【豆油&棕榈油】 棕榈油节后表现强势，价格上涨，一方面印尼官员表态2026年下半年推出B50生柴惨混计划，一方面市场主流机 构预计马来西亚棕榈油本月报告会环比降库，因此棕榈油表现偏强，油箱比也创出新高。豆棕价差走弱，棕榈 油表现强于豆油，豆油也跟随棕榈油走强。节后预计油厂开机率会逐步回升,预计短期豆油市场仍呈现供大于 求的格局。美豆方面供需两端面临压力,预计后续美豆市场仍然需要经受出口的考验。短期关注马来西亚棕榈 油MPOB报告的指引。中期豆棕油预计区间运行，波动存在弹性，由于四季度大豆市场以及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given text. The report mainly provides data on various financial products such as ETFs and indices, including their prices, price changes, implied volatility (IV), IV quantiles, skew indices, and related historical trends. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - The report covers multiple financial products including 50ETF, Shanghai 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF, Shanghai CSI 500ETF, Shenzhen CSI 500ETF, ChiNext ETF, Shenzhen 100ETF, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF, 300 Index, 1000 Index, and Shanghai 50 Index [1][3][11][19][25][31][40][49][54][61][67][71] - The current month's contract expiration is 9 days away for most products, except for the 300 Index, 1000 Index, and Shanghai 50 Index, where it is 6 days away [1][3][11][19][25][31][40][49][54][61][67][71] 3.2 Price and Price Change Data - For each product, the report provides the price, price change percentage, current - month IV, and next - month IV for specific dates (2025/9/29, 2025/9/30, 2025/10/9) [1][3][11][19][25][31][40][49][54][61][67][71] 3.3 Implied Volatility (IV) Data - IV quantiles for the current month and next month over the past 1 and 2 years are provided for each product [1][3][11][19][25][31][40][49][54][61][67][71] - ATM IV term structures and intraday trends of different - month at - the - money IV are presented [1][3][11][19][25][31][40][49][54][61][67][71] 3.4 Skew Index Data - The skew index is calculated as the ratio of the implied volatility of a call option with a delta of 0.75 to that of a call option with a delta of 0.25. The skew index values for the current day, yesterday, two days ago, three days ago, and four days ago are provided for each product [2][7][18][22][30][37][43][51][56][66][70][76] 3.5 Other Data - Smile curves of the main - month options for each product are presented [2][5][18][21][30][36][42][50][55][66][70][75] - Price, IV, and volume trends over the past 1 and 3 years are provided for each product [1][3][11][19][25][31][40][49][54][61][67][71] - Price, IV, and open - interest PCR trends are also provided for each product [2][8][18][23][30][38][45][53][58][66][70][77]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The cease - fire progress in the Israel - Hamas conflict has boosted the expectation of resuming shipping on the European line, causing far - month contracts to decline, especially the 2026 contracts with a decline of over 10% [1]. - The resumption of shipping will lead to a significant oversupply of the European line fleet, and the supply pressure may exceed that in 2023. The supply pressure is expected to continue due to the fast - paced new ship deliveries and the difficulty of demand growth to match the supply growth [1]. - Far - month, especially off - season contracts, will continue to be under pressure. The cease - fire negotiation is accelerating, and the spot price has been weak since August, limiting the upside space of next year's off - season contracts [2]. - For contracts within this year, airlines' willingness to raise prices is expected to increase. With the Christmas cargo volume expected to rise, the 12 - month contract may be relatively firm but will likely fluctuate widely under the influence of multiple factors [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Impact of the Cease - fire on Shipping Contracts - On October 8, the cease - fire agreement between Hamas and Israel boosted the expectation of resuming shipping, leading to a decline in far - month contracts on the European line, with the 2026 contracts falling by over 10% [1]. Reasons for the Decline in Far - Month Contracts - After ships were attacked in the Red Sea and detoured around the Cape of Good Hope, the European line's shipping capacity increased by about 25% compared to November 2023, while the demand from January to August this year only increased by 19%. The resumption of shipping will cause a significant oversupply [1]. - The 12000 + TEU fleet suitable for the European and American lines is expected to grow by 8% by 2026, and the demand is difficult to match this supply growth under the background of increasing global trade barriers [1]. Pricing of the Resumption of Shipping in the Market - Referring to the 2023 Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS), the average value of the European route was 887.7 points before the detour, with a low of 597.17 points in October and a high of 1159.44 points in December [2]. Outlook for Far - Month Contracts - Far - month, especially off - season contracts, will continue to be under pressure. The cease - fire negotiation is accelerating, and the spot price has been weak since August, so next year's off - season contracts may use this year's low as a reference, with limited upside space [2]. Outlook for Contracts within this Year - Airlines' willingness to raise prices is expected to increase. Some airlines have announced price increases from mid - October, and more 11 - month price increase plans are expected. With the Christmas cargo volume rising, if airlines implement empty - flight measures, it may boost the market [3]. - The 12 - month contract may be relatively firm due to the low probability of resuming shipping within this year and the peak - season expectation. However, under the influence of the resumption expectation and over - capacity, the average long - term contract price this year is expected to be lower than last year, and the contract is expected to fluctuate widely [3].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Gold operation rating: ★☆★ [1] - Silver operation rating: ★☆★ [1] Group 2: Core Views - During the National Day holiday, precious metals continued to be strong. The international gold price broke through the $4,000 mark, and the domestic market followed suit with a higher opening today [1]. - The US government shutdown led to the suspension of data such as non - farm payrolls, and market risk - aversion sentiment continued [1]. - The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. However, after Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had signed the first - stage peace agreement and the short - term target of $4,000 was reached, it is necessary to be vigilant about profit - taking by funds. Maintain caution at high levels, hold previous long positions, and avoid chasing the rise [1]. Group 3: Related Events - Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had signed the first stage of the peace plan. He previously said he might go to the Middle East over the weekend and consider going to Gaza [1]. - In the recent sixth round of voting, the US Senate rejected the bipartisan appropriation bill again, and the federal government continued to shut down [1]. - The Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting minutes showed that employment growth has slowed, the unemployment rate has risen slightly, and the labor market has shown signs of weakness. At the same time, the inflation rate is still slightly above the 2% target. Almost all members agreed to cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4% and 4.25% [2]

Group 1: Metal Price Information - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 83,240 with a rise of 1,030, and SMM flat - copper premium/discount is - 30 with a rise of 10 [1] - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,720 with a rise of 30, and SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount is - 20 with a fall of 10 [1] - Alumina (Shanxi) price is 2,930 with a fall of 5, and Australian alumina FOB average price is 323 with no change [1] - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,800 with no change, and SMM 1 lead ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 125 with a fall of 35 [1] - Recycled refined lead average price is 16,775 with no change, and the refined - scrap price difference is 25 with no change [1] - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 21,830 with a rise of 200, and SMM 0 zinc ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 30 with a fall of 5 [1] - SMM 1 tin average price is 277,200 with a rise of 5,800, and SMM 1 tin premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 740 with a fall of 1,240 [1] - 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 265,200 with a rise of 5,800, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.67% [1] - 1 imported nickel average price is 121,650 with a rise of 450, and 1 imported nickel premium/discount to SHFE nickel contract average price is 325 with no change [1] - 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 123,675 with a rise of 500, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount to SHFE nickel contract average price is 2,350 with a rise of 50 [1] - Oxygen - passing 553 (Xinjiang) average price plus 800 (with regional discount + 200 for quality impurity removal) is 9,950 with no change, and 553 spot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,345 with a fall of 45 [1] - 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 9,950, polysilicon dense material average price is 0, granular silicon average price is 0, and N - type polysilicon material average price is 52.55 [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,550 with no change, and battery - grade lithium carbonate premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 510 with a fall of 400 [1] - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,300, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 with no change [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - Dian She, the chief analyst, is responsible for copper and tin research, with从业资格证号 F3047773 and investment consulting number Z0014087 [1] - Liu Dongbo, the senior analyst, is responsible for aluminum, alumina, and gold research, with从业资格证号 F3062795 and investment consulting number Z0015311 [1] Group 3: Data Information - Data sources include SMM, iFind, SMM, Flush Finance, and Guotou Futures [1] - Data is updated daily between 11:00 - 13:00 [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend during the National Day holiday, with different performances in various industries. Some commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitics, and policy changes, and investors need to pay attention to different influencing factors for different industries [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices generally declined around the National Day holiday and are in a rebound - repair period. The EIA report shows an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, but strong refined oil demand supports prices. The strategy of combining short positions in SC and out - of - the - money call options can be opportunistically closed for profit [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market followed crude oil to weaken during the holiday, with high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuels showing different trends. High - sulfur fuel is supported by geopolitical conflicts, while low - sulfur fuel is weak due to low demand and sufficient supply [20] - **Asphalt**: Oil prices fell during the holiday, and the asphalt is expected to decline slightly. However, with the expected supply pressure in October and the subsequent northern construction demand, the asphalt is expected to be less pressured and have upward cracking elasticity [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The domestic LPG market showed regional differences at the end of the holiday, with the northern market falling and the southern market stable. The market has obvious bottom support [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals continued to be strong during the National Day, with gold breaking through the $4,000 mark. The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, but short - term profit - taking risks should be noted [3] - **Copper**: LME copper rose by over 3% during the holiday, affected by supply losses. The growth rate of copper concentrate production is expected to be adjusted, and the Shanghai copper may test 85,000 yuan after the holiday, with high - risk of two - way fluctuations [4] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose by 3% during the holiday. The aluminum consumption in September was lackluster. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the feedback in the peak season and the resistance at the March high [5] - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, with obvious supply surplus and weak prices, approaching the low of 2,800 yuan in June [6] - **Zinc**: The outer - market zinc price rose during the holiday and then fell back. The domestic zinc market has a pattern of oversupply, and the export window may open. LME zinc is expected to fluctuate between $2,850 - $3,050, and Shanghai zinc between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [8] - **Lead**: LME lead continued to consolidate at a low level during the holiday. Shanghai lead may consolidate at a low level in the short term after the holiday but is expected to rebound at 16,500 yuan at the end of the year [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: LME nickel rose slightly during the holiday, but the oversupply tendency restricts its upward space. It is mainly in a short - term shock [10] - **Tin**: LME tin fell for three consecutive days but still rose by 3% during the holiday. Shanghai tin may jump to 280,000 - 285,000 yuan after the holiday, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium market changed little during the holiday. The futures price may rebound slightly after low - level consolidation [11] Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures market sentiment is returning to rationality. There is still a risk of inventory accumulation, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon is firm, but the upward space is restricted. It is mainly in a short - term shock [13] - **Urea**: The urea price was stable with a slight decline during the holiday. India announced a new tender, and attention should be paid to domestic export policies [23] - **Methanol**: The methanol import volume is expected to remain high, and the port is likely to continue to accumulate inventory. The near - term market is weak, while the long - term is expected to be strong [23] - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene plant restarted before the holiday, and the processing margin oscillated at a low level. The overseas oil price decline and expected demand fall drag down the market [24] - **Styrene**: The oil price during the holiday had little impact on styrene. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and a bearish market pattern [25] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices may rise after the holiday. The polyolefin market is under pressure due to weak demand and new - capacity release [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has a pattern of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, and may fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda supply is high, but the future demand may increase [27] - **PX & PTA**: The weak oil price during the holiday dragged down polyester products. PX is expected to be under pressure, and PTA may repair its profit. The long - term supply - demand is still under pressure [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol increased slightly during the holiday. The short - term demand is okay, but the medium - term supply - demand will weaken [29] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber industry is expected to be boosted by the peak - season demand. The bottle - chip industry has new - capacity expectations, and attention should be paid to its load changes [30] Building Materials - **Glass**: The glass price was stable during the holiday, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The daily melting is at a relatively high level, and the market may be weak if capacity reduction does not occur [31] - **20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The rubber futures prices fluctuated sharply during the holiday. The supply pressure is high, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. It is advisable to wait and see [32] - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash inventory decreased before the holiday. The long - term supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and short - selling at high prices can be considered [33] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean inventory is lower than expected. Argentina cancelled the tax - exemption policy. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter but may be tight in the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to wait and see for soybean meal [34] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US soybean market faces supply and demand challenges. The palm oil market is expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter. Mid - term, the soybean and palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [35] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The international rapeseed price changed little during the holiday. The domestic rapeseed inventory is tight, but Australian rapeseed will arrive in November. Rapeseed oil demand is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [35] - **Soybean No. 1**: The domestic new - season soybean price is under pressure. The US soybean market needs to face export tests [36] - **Corn**: The autumn harvest progress in the Huanghuai region is slow, and the northeast corn price fell during the holiday. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach for now [37] - **Pig**: The pig price dropped sharply during the holiday. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the off - season. The industry is in a loss, and attention should be paid to the de - capacity process [38] - **Egg**: The egg price dropped significantly during the holiday. The supply is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to decline [39] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell during the holiday. The domestic new cotton acquisition is in full swing, and attention should be paid to whether Zhengzhou cotton can stabilize [40] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price fluctuated during the holiday. The domestic market focuses on the next - season's production estimate, and the Guangxi sugar production is expected to be good [41] - **Apple**: The apple futures price oscillates. The new - season cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, and a short - selling approach is recommended [42] - **Timber**: The timber futures price oscillates. The supply is low, the demand is showing, and the inventory pressure is small. A long - buying approach is recommended [43] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price fell before the holiday. The port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is general. It is advisable to wait and see [44] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index showed a strong - oscillating trend before the holiday. During the holiday, the global risk preference was not significantly suppressed, and the stock index is expected to continue to be strong - oscillating [45] - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures oscillated flat. The overseas treasury bond market performed poorly. The domestic bond market is in an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to the curve - steepening entry opportunity [46] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The container shipping market was weak before the festival. The SCFIS European index continued to decline, and the far - month contracts are under pressure from the supply - surplus expectation. Attention should be paid to the airlines' price - increase implementation [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal trends. Different commodities and financial instruments present diverse investment opportunities and risks. For example, some commodities like manganese silicon are recommended for long - positions, while others like apples are advised to be shorted. In the financial market, a positive external liquidity environment is observed for the Greater China region's stock indices, and a steeper yield curve is expected for Treasury bonds [2][44][45]. 3. Summary by Commodity and Financial Instrument Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Supply is in a multi - factor state with both increases and geopolitical risks. Oil inventory accumulation is clear in Q3. It's recommended to hold a protective strategy of short futures and long call options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the downward trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten due to geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weaker fundamental situation with abundant supply and weak demand [20]. - **Asphalt**: Pre - holiday inventory decreases. October production plan is in line with expectations, and demand is seasonally boosted, so the price is expected to be slightly strong [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Due to weather - related import changes and expected increase in demand, the price has rebounded slightly [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: They show a strong trend in the medium - term but have high volatility risks during the National Day holiday, so it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are rising. Grasberg's supply impact is being digested. Technically, there is potential for a trend breakthrough, but basic demand has a negative expectation [4]. - **Aluminum**: It's relatively stable. September consumption is below expectations, and it faces resistance at the March high. Post - holiday peak - season feedback is to be watched [5]. - **Zinc**: As the holiday approaches, the fundamentals weaken. Attention should be paid to the support level, and short - positions are advised to take profits before the holiday [8]. - **Lead**: Supply exceeds demand during the holiday, and the price has dropped. Cost support should be noted [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is weakly running. Inventory changes vary, and it's waiting for the boost from copper prices [10]. - **Tin**: Prices have risen due to Indonesia's policy. Attention should be paid to the policy's impact and post - holiday inventory changes [11]. - **Other Metals** - **Alumina**: Supply is in surplus, and the price is weakly running [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with aluminum. Supply and demand factors lead to a mainly oscillating trend [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: With the "Three - Carbon" initiative, there is an upward price drive. It's recommended to go long at low prices [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: Similar to manganese silicon, it has an upward price drive and good demand. Long - positions at low prices are recommended [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and supply exceeds demand. Policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment should be watched [23]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The fundamental situation is okay, but cost and demand factors are dragging down the market [24]. - **Styrene**: Cost support is strengthening, but high inventory suppresses the price [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Supply is controllable, and demand provides some support, but polypropylene faces price pressure [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak situation, and caustic soda may oscillate [27]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand situation is still under pressure after the holiday [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply pressure is not large in the short - term but may increase in the medium - term [29]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is boosted by demand, and bottle - chip is affected by short - term factors [30]. Grains and Oils - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Soybeans face seasonal and export challenges. Palm oil has supply - side drivers in the fourth quarter. A protective long - call strategy can be considered [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Due to holiday factors, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [35]. - **Soybean**: Domestic soybeans perform better in the short - term. Supply situations in different periods need attention [36]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Supply pressure is high, and the price is falling. The industry's capacity reduction process should be watched [37]. - **Eggs**: For far - month contracts, long - positions can be considered, while for near - month contracts, the departure of short - funds should be watched [38]. - **Cotton**: The short - term trend is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see [39]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the focus is on the next season's production estimate in China [40]. - **Apples**: Although the spot market is good, the price faces pressure, and a short - position strategy is recommended [41]. - **Wood**: The supply - demand situation is improving, and a long - position strategy is recommended [42]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price is falling, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [43]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Indices**: They are showing strength. The external liquidity environment is positive, and a moderate increase in the allocation of cyclical styles can be considered [44]. - **Treasury Bonds**: They are falling, and a steeper yield curve is expected [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities having different trends. Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical factors, seasonal changes, and policy expectations. Investors need to pay attention to different influencing factors for each commodity and adjust their investment strategies accordingly, especially during the National Day holiday to control risks [2][3][44] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly. The supply side is in a multi - empty intertwined state. The oil inventory accumulation process is clear, with a 2.4% increase in the third quarter. It's recommended to hold a protective strategy combining futures shorts and call options [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Iraq's crude oil export recovery and OPEC +'s increasing production expectations put pressure on oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten due to geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weaker fundamental situation [20] - **Asphalt**: Market pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm increased. The overall inventory level decreased. The 10 - month production plan was in line with expectations, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Due to typhoon weather in South China, the import volume decreased. Supply - demand improved marginally, and the LPG price rebounded slightly from the bottom [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals continued to be strong. The medium - term upward trend remains, but there is high volatility risk during the National Day holiday, so it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices rose. The market is digesting the supply impact. Technically, LME copper shows potential for a trend breakthrough, and SHFE copper enters the high - price area. However, there are negative demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight non - ferrous metals were strong, but SHFE aluminum was relatively stable. The consumption in September was lower than expected, and it faces resistance at the March high. Pay attention to the peak - season feedback after the holiday [5] - **Zinc**: As the National Day holiday approaches, the zinc fundamentals weakened. Shorts increased positions significantly. Pay attention to the support at 21,500 yuan/ton, and be vigilant against potential short squeezes in the outer market [8] - **Lead**: The supply of lead exceeded demand in the short term, and the price dropped significantly. Pay attention to the cost support at around 16,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel is in a weak state. The inventory of pure nickel and nickel iron decreased, while the stainless - steel inventory increased. Wait for the external copper price to drive the market [10] - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices rose rapidly. Pay attention to the impact of Indonesia's policy and the changes in refined tin production rate and inventory after the holiday [11] - **Manganese Silicon & Silicon Iron**: With the "Three - Carbon" concept, there is an upward driving force for prices. The demand from molten iron production is rising, and it's recommended to go long at low prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Urea**: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and the supply exceeds demand. The inventory of production enterprises continues to accumulate. Pay attention to policy adjustments [23] - **Methanol**: The methanol market is expected to be weak. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [24] - **Pure Benzene**: The real - world fundamental situation is okay, but the oil - price collapse and future demand decline expectations drag down the market [24] - **Styrene**: The cost - side support from oil prices is strengthening, but high inventory suppresses prices [25] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of polypropylene is under pressure, and the price is always under pressure. For polyethylene, the downstream has stocking demand before the holiday, but there is de - stocking pressure after the holiday [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak and oscillating state due to high supply and inventory. Caustic soda may oscillate due to weak current situation and strong future expectations [27] - **PX & PTA**: The strong expectations of PX are weakened, and the supply - demand situation of PTA is still under pressure after the holiday [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply pressure is not large in the short term, but the supply - demand may be weak in the fourth quarter [29] - **Short Fibre & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber demand is boosted during the peak season, and bottle - chip prices are affected by short - term factors [30] Building Materials - **Glass**: Pay attention to the downstream restocking sentiment. If capacity reduction does not occur, the market may return to a weak state [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related Products**: U.S. soybeans face seasonal and export pressures. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle. Mid - term, soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range. Consider protective call strategies [34] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Due to the holiday, market sentiment is cautious. Rapeseed meal demand is suppressed, while rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines before the holiday [35] - **Domestic Soybeans**: Domestic soybeans are performing better than imported ones in the short term. Pay attention to the performance after the listing of domestic soybeans [36] - **Eggs**: Egg futures have significantly reduced positions. After the National Day, demand will weaken. Consider long positions in far - month contracts next year [38] - **Cotton**: U.S. and Chinese cotton prices are falling. Xinjiang cotton may have a bumper harvest, and domestic demand is weak. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [39] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the market focuses on the next - crop - season yield estimate in China [40] - **Apples**: Although the spot market is good, the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, so maintain a short - selling mindset [41] - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. Maintain a long - buying mindset [42] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices hit a new low. The inventory in Chinese ports is relatively high, and the demand is average. Stay on the sidelines [43] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index showed strength. The external liquidity environment for the Greater China stock index is positive. Mid - term, increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors, and moderately increase the allocation of cyclical sectors in the short term [44] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures closed down. The economic operation faces challenges, and the yield - curve steepening probability increases [45] Livestock - **Hogs**: Hog futures dropped. The supply is abundant, and the government has carried out small - scale purchases. The industry is in a loss state. Pay attention to the impact of re - entry in the fourth quarter [37] - **Eggs**: Egg futures reduced positions significantly. The demand will weaken after the National Day. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for next year [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rebounded after a correction last week, with an overall increase of 0.43%. Precious metals led the gains at 4.48%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 0.73%. Energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined by 0.06%, 1.23%, and 1.95% respectively. [2][7] - Due to uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate cut path and the non - realization of expected domestic interest - rate cut policies, short - term liquidity is disrupted, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2] - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may fluctuate; non - ferrous metals may remain stable; black commodities may fluctuate weakly; energy may fluctuate; chemical products face pressure; and agricultural products and oilseeds may fluctuate. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.43% last week. Precious metals led with a 4.48% increase, non - ferrous metals rose 0.73%, while energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined. [2][7] - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Silver, fuel oil, and copper had the highest increases at 6.63%, 4.36%, and 3.28% respectively. Rapeseed meal, coking coal, and coke had the largest declines at 4.64%, 2.88%, and 2.65% respectively. [2][7] - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, especially for oilseeds. [2][7] - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased slightly, with net inflows in non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. [2][7] 3.2 Outlook - **Precious Metals**: PCE data met expectations, reducing pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Uncertainties in interest - rate cut expectations may lead to short - term fluctuations. [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The stronger US dollar after the interest - rate meeting suppresses the sector, but domestic demand expectations and pre - holiday restocking support prices. The Grasberg copper mine accident affects supply and copper prices. The sector may remain stable in the short term. [3] - **Black Commodities**: Rebar demand improved, production stabilized, and inventory decreased. Steel mills have thin profits, and raw material supply is stable. The sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] - **Energy**: US inventory declines and geopolitical risks support oil prices. Geopolitical risks may rise around the National Day, but the rebound space is limited. The sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] - **Chemical Products**: Polyester sales increased, reducing inventory pressure, but inventory accumulation and low profits continue to pressure the industry. [4] - **Agricultural Products**: Argentina's agricultural policy changes and China's increased soybean purchases reduce the supply gap risk next year. Palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and the oilseed sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with a combined scale increase of 1.83% and a combined trading volume increase of 4.52%. [39] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.63% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.81% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.82% return, and the silver futures fund had a 5.72% return. [39]