| 11111 | | SDIC FUTURES | | --- | --- | --- | | 18 | 11.00 | | 原油 甘肃省 燃料油 ★☆★ 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ 沥青 女女女 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ 能源日报 2025年10月24日 高明宇 首席分析师 F0302201 Z0012038 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 隔夜国际油价连续第二个交易日反弹,SC12合约日内涨2.4%。俄乌地缘风险的急剧升温继续主导油价反弹，美 国制裁的俄罗斯Rosneft和卢克石油在俄产能和炼能占比分别为46%、40%;周四欧盟正式通过第19轮对俄制裁, 涉及包括2家炼厂、1家国有贸易公司在内的4家中国企业、相关供应链风险在中国购买俄油的贸易环节、卸港环 节已有所显现。她缘风险带动油市短期震荡偏强，关注24-27日中美马来会谈及后续俄美对话的进展。 (沥青) BU延续上行趋势,近月合约涨势相对偏强。本周沥青供需双降。11月地炼排产环比大幅下降, ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Two-olefins: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - Pure benzene: ★☆★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - PX: ★☆★ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene glycol: ★☆★ [1] - Short fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle chips: ★☆★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic soda: ★★★ [1] - Pure benzene: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as oil prices, supply and demand, and policies, showing different trends in various sub - sectors [2][3][5] - Some products are expected to have better performance in the short - term or long - term, while others may face challenges and risks [5][6][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly, with low - stable prices, and strong market wait - and - see sentiment [2] - Polyethylene has enhanced cost support but faces resistance from downstream factories, and the market is digesting price increases [2] - Polypropylene prices rise slightly at the end of the month, but downstream new orders are not improving significantly, and procurement enthusiasm is low [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fall with oil prices, and there is a decline in both supply and demand. The focus is on port inventory accumulation [3] - Styrene supply decreases, demand is good, but high inventory limits its rebound space [3] Polyester - PX has cost support for PTA, but there are concerns about PTA inventory accumulation if oil prices stop rising [5] - Ethylene glycol's short - term fundamentals improve, but there is a long - term inventory accumulation expectation [5] - Short fiber has a good spot pattern in the short - term but may face inventory accumulation again [5] - Bottle chips' demand weakens, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol ports may oscillate in the short - term and tend to be stronger in the long - term [6] - Urea is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term due to improved supply - demand and cost support [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC's inventory accumulation slows down, and it may operate in the bottom - range [7] - Caustic soda may operate at a low level in the range due to high inventory pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in a low - level range, and it is advisable to short at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass prices continue to decline, and the downward range may be limited at a low valuation [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is under pressure with weak domestic demand and fluctuating sentiment, while exports remain high. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. Coke and coking coal prices are likely to be prone to rise due to certain expectations, despite pressure from steel mills' profit margins. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by factors such as production, demand, and external trade frictions [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel continued to recover but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled coil demand continued to rise, production was basically flat, and inventory decreased. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industry chain still fermented repeatedly. Domestic demand was weak overall, and steel exports remained high. The market sentiment cooled, and the futures prices were under pressure [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices were weakly volatile. The global supply was strong, and the domestic arrival volume declined from a high level. Port inventory increased significantly this week. On the demand side, molten iron production declined from a high level, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to shrink. With the end of the peak season and the contraction of steel mill profits, there was still pressure for molten iron production cuts. The market had certain expectations for policy benefits, and sentiment improved. It is expected that the short - term trend will be mainly volatile [3] Coke - Coke prices rose today. Molten iron production remained high, and the steel - making profit level was average, suppressing the coke price increase rate. The second round of price increases for coking started. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory hardly changed. Downstream buyers purchased on a small - scale as needed and mainly consumed inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The carbon element supply was abundant, and steel mills had a strong sentiment of pressing down raw material prices. The coke futures prices were at a premium, and the price was likely to be prone to rise [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose today. Recently, there was political turmoil in Mongolia, and the market was worried about the stability of Mongolian coal customs clearance volume. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, and transaction prices increased. Terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. With safety inspections approaching in major coal - producing areas, production cuts due to self - inspections by coking coal mines increased slightly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream molten iron production remained at a high level, providing support for raw materials. However, steel mills had a strong sentiment of pressing down raw material prices [6] Silicomanganese - Today's silicomanganese prices were in a downward oscillation. On the demand side, molten iron production remained high. Weekly silicomanganese production decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. Silicomanganese inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore prices were boosted by the futures market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. The impact of external trade frictions should be continuously monitored [7] Ferrosilicon - Today's ferrosilicon prices were in a downward oscillation. On the demand side, molten iron production remained high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand was acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance inventory continued to decline. The impact of external trade frictions should be concerned [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Beans for domestic consumption, Bean Meal, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Hold**: Corn, Live Pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - Uncertainties remain high in the agricultural products market, with significant impact from Sino-US trade relations and policy guidance [3][4][6] - Maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to many uncertain factors, and look for investment opportunities [3] - Long-term, it is advisable to allocate edible oils at low prices, but be cautious about short-term price fluctuations [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Beans for Domestic Consumption - The main contract of domestic soybeans rose and then fell. The trading volume was 52,003 tons, with a trading rate of 79.76% and an average price of 3,910 yuan/ton, providing market guidance [2] - The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans rose and then fell. Pay attention to the impact of short-term profit-taking [2] - Keep an eye on policy guidance in the short term [2] Soybeans & Bean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybeans rose 0.58% in shock, and domestic bean meal spot prices generally increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [3] - Overall, soybean supply in the fourth quarter is not a big problem, but it may tighten in the first quarter of next year if Sino-US trade relations deteriorate [3] - If Sino-US trade relations do not ease, Dalian soybeans are likely to continue to fluctuate. Wait and see for opportunities [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The oil-to-meal ratio continued to decline [4] - Palm oil enters the production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Its price depends on production reduction performance. Pay attention to the adjustment risk of the oil-to-meal ratio [4] - In the long term, allocate edible oils at low prices, but be cautious about short-term price corrections of palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures showed small fluctuations. Rapeseed oil slightly reduced positions, and the market was still cautious [6] - Coastal oil mills have low rapeseed inventories, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation for domestic rapeseed oil [6] - The main contract price of rapeseed futures will mainly fluctuate. Pay attention to the trend of economic and trade relations and consider cross-competitor strategies with rapeseed as the short side [6] Corn - Corn futures traded sideways. Northeast corn prices were stable, and Shandong's corn supply increased [7] - Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. Dalian corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures' near-term contracts fluctuated, and far-term contracts hit new lows [8] - Spot prices were stable, and second-round fattening sentiment weakened [8] - There is an expectation of improved pork consumption in the fourth quarter, but maintain a short-selling strategy after the price rebounds [8] Eggs - Egg futures rebounded with reduced positions. Spot prices rebounded [9] - Pay attention to short-term risks. There may be a decline in the medium term [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★ [1] - Silver: ★★★ [1] Report's Core View - Today, gold and silver fluctuated with repeated ups and downs. Due to new sanctions on Russia by the US and Europe, upcoming new - round trade negotiations between China and the US, and the US sending bombers over the vicinity of Venezuela, global situation uncertainty is high, and risk sentiment is prone to fluctuate. In the short - term, precious metals may enter a phase of high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and watch for investment opportunities. Attention should be paid to the release of US September CPI data tonight [1] Summary by Related Content Global Situation - The US and Europe announced new sanctions on Russia. It is reported that India's imports of Russian oil will drop to nearly zero, and Kuwait said OPEC is ready to increase production to meet rising demand [1] - Trump said "the ground will be the next target" in his anti - drug operation against Venezuela, which may be a major escalation of US - Venezuela tensions. Maduro ordered the indefinite deployment of troops in five states in September [2] Russia - Ukraine Situation - Zelensky said there are domestic missiles with a range of 300 kilometers and land exchange with Russia is unacceptable [1] - Putin believes the US intention seems more like delaying the summit rather than canceling it, and new sanctions will not have a major impact on the Russian economy [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, advising to wait and see [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, same as aluminum [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, representing a long - bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, long - bias with limited market operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, short - term long/short balance with poor operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, short - term long/short balance with poor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, short - term long/short balance with poor operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, short - term long/short balance with poor operability [1] Core Views - The overall non - ferrous metals market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic events, supply - demand changes, and inventory levels. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - Friday saw a significant increase in positions and an expanded upward trend in Shanghai copper. Gold and silver prices corrected during the week, attracting funds to allocate copper based on the high gold - copper ratio. The market is concerned about Sino - US business negotiations and the confirmed summit between the two leaders at the end of the month. High copper prices are suppressing demand, and there is a risk of testing previous highs. It is recommended to trade at low prices and wait and see for now [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum followed the non - ferrous metals to oscillate strongly. The overseas aluminum plant's 200,000 - ton production cut due to an accident and the slight destocking in both domestic and overseas markets are factors. Short - term upward breakthroughs need demand feedback, and the upside space is viewed cautiously. Casting aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price to oscillate strongly. Alumina has a high operating capacity and rising inventory, showing a weak operation [2] Zinc - Overseas currency credit pressure leads to a strong long - bias in funds for non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The zinc export window is open, and the fourth - quarter support for Shanghai zinc is strong. The LME zinc inventory is at a low level, which is beneficial for long - term contract negotiations. Attention should be paid to overseas production data, and the domestic refining industry's profitability may lead to normal exports [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillates at a low level. The downstream demand recovery in the peak season is limited, and the market is light. The support from the upstream price rebound is weakening, and the overall nickel industry chain price may be dragged down. Technically, Shanghai nickel is weak and expected to oscillate [6] Tin - Shanghai tin increases in positions and rises. Technically, London tin breaks through the MA20 moving average, and the short - term upward trend will continue. Low imports of tin concentrates in China in September and limited复产 of Myanmar mines support the price. Wait for the social inventory data this week [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price rebounds, and the market trading warms up. The overall inventory decreases, and the downstream seizes the opportunity to buy after the price cut. Technically, it is strong in the short term, and the pressure around 80,000 yuan should be watched [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decline slightly. There is a high probability of production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan in November due to rising electricity prices. The inventory accumulation situation is expected to be alleviated, and the spot price is under pressure while the futures are expected to oscillate [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures decline slightly after changing the main contract. The spot price of N - type re -投料 is stable. The production cuts in October were less than expected, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in November - December. The market oscillates driven by policy expectations [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LME lead inventory has decreased from a high level, but the overall inventory is still high. With the news of Citigroup's plan to extract a large amount of lead from Singapore warehouses, the market sentiment has shifted from the weak reality of LME lead oversupply to the strong expectation of inventory reduction. The lead ingot spot import window has opened, and overseas lead ingots can be smoothly transferred to China, alleviating the overseas inventory accumulation pressure, leading to a rebound in LME lead [2]. - After the National Day in China, the downstream consumption of lead has been good. The production reduction of primary and secondary lead smelters has led to a shortage of market supply, and the low lead price has stimulated downstream purchasing. The battery enterprises' inventory has decreased, and their production has recovered after the holiday, with good orders and a slight increase in battery prices. The domestic lead ingot inventory accumulation is less than expected. The cost - side support of lead has strengthened, and the actual resumption of secondary lead production is slower than expected, not exerting much downward pressure on Shanghai lead. The news of environmental inspections in Hebei has further stimulated the entry of long - position funds, breaking the previous stalemate and causing Shanghai lead to break through the previous consolidation range [3]. - In the future, the shift of capital sentiment should be closely monitored. Against the backdrop of the US disrupting the global supply chain and the government shutdown, funds are flowing into precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The news of Citigroup's extraction of lead from Singapore warehouses has opened up upward space for LME lead. The external market may drive the domestic market to rise. Technically, Shanghai lead is expected to break through the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton. However, due to factors such as the competitiveness of lithium batteries, pre - consumption caused by "trade - in" in China, and the impact of tariffs on battery exports, as well as the expected increase in secondary lead production after the lead price rises, the high - price range of Shanghai lead in the fourth quarter is expected to be 18,300 - 18,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3) Summary by Related Contents News - Citigroup plans to extract a large amount of lead from LME - approved Singapore warehouses as it seeks other rent - sharing transactions [2]. - Hebei will control incoming vehicles, and vehicles of China V emission standard and below are not allowed to enter factories. The transportation of waste materials and lead ingots in local secondary lead enterprises and lead - acid battery enterprises is affected, and the transportation cycle is extended [2]. Market Situation Analysis - As of October 23, 2025, the LME lead inventory has decreased to 239,750 tons, with a high proportion of cancelled warrants (68.1%). The opening of the lead ingot import window has alleviated the overseas inventory pressure [2]. - After the National Day in China, the downstream consumption of lead is good. The reduction in primary and secondary lead production has led to a shortage of supply, and the low lead price has stimulated purchasing. Battery enterprises' production has recovered, and the inventory accumulation of lead ingots is less than expected [3]. - In the primary lead sector, some enterprises have复产 and减产, and the pre - winter storage of some smelters has intensified the shortage of lead concentrates, leading to a decrease in lead concentrate TC and stronger cost - side support [3]. - In the secondary lead sector, the actual resumption of production is slower than expected, and the price difference between refined and scrap lead fluctuates in the range of 50 - 75 yuan/ton, not exerting much downward pressure on Shanghai lead [3]. Future Price Forecast - The shift of capital sentiment is crucial. Funds are flowing into precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The news of Citigroup's lead extraction has opened up upward space for LME lead, and the external market may drive the domestic market to rise [4]. - Technically, Shanghai lead is expected to break through the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton. However, due to various factors, the high - price range of Shanghai lead in the fourth quarter is expected to be 18,300 - 18,500 yuan/ton [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is difficult to increase, and a supply gap is expected to accumulate in November. The coking coal production in Wuhai has been low since the second half of this year, and it is expected to remain difficult to increase in the remaining time of this year. With safety inspections in Shanxi coal mines in November and the impact of political chaos on Mongolian coal supply, the supply gap of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is expected to accumulate. Downstream coking enterprises can only passively accept the price increase of coking coal until significant production cuts by steel mills in December [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Background - Wuhai is an important production area of high - strength coking coal. It has rich coal resources, with an annual coal production capacity of about 40 million tons. Most of the coal produced is coking coal, mainly fat coal, main coking coal, and 1/3 coking coal, which are high - quality skeleton coal types for coking, but have a high sulfur content. In recent years, the price difference with Shanxi coking coal has narrowed, and it has lost some cost - effectiveness. Since May this year, there have been reports of large - scale shutdowns of coking coal mines in Wuhai, and the production has decreased significantly in the second half of the year [3][7]. 2. Wuhai Open - pit Mines are Continuously Shut Down and Difficult to Resume Production - All open - pit mines in Wuhai are basically shut down, mainly due to coal mine capacity integration, high - intensity environmental inspections, self - inspection of over - production, and tax issues. Capacity integration is to solve the problem of cross - ownership of coal mines between Wuhai and neighboring areas. Environmental inspections have been high - intensity since June. The over - production of open - pit mines has been significantly suppressed, and many private mines lack the motivation to resume production. It is unlikely that coking coal mines in Wuhai will resume production in the short term, and the supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is likely to decrease rather than increase in November [8][9][11]. 3. Coking Enterprises in Wuhai and Surrounding Areas are Marginally Profitable and Have Low In - Furnace Coal Inventory - Wuhai is the main coking supply area in Inner Mongolia, with a coking production capacity of over 30 million tons, accounting for more than half of the total capacity in the autonomous region. Due to the abnormal production of local coal mines, local coking plants have increased the purchase of Shanxi coal. Large - scale coking plants with long chemical product chains can make a profit of about 50 yuan/ton, while small and medium - sized coking plants are basically at the break - even point. The in - furnace coal inventory of coking plants is low, with raw coal available for 5 - 15 days, and they have no intention to replenish inventory for the time being. The overall coal - coking inventory in Wuhai is low, and it is expected to be even more in short supply in November [12]. 4. Mongolian Coal Imports are Affected by Political Disturbances in Mongolia - The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has decreased from 1,200 trucks per day to 600 - 900 trucks per day. The political turmoil in Mongolia may affect the production and export of state - owned coal mines such as ETT. The large - scale electronic auction of Mongolian coal has squeezed the long - term contract resources, resulting in a decline in the import volume of some large - scale trading companies. The long - term contract sales volume of imported Mongolian coal is expected to be difficult to increase this year. The import proportion of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal has decreased significantly, and more Mongolian 1/3 coking coal and weathered coal will be imported in the future. The supply of imported Mongolian coal is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the resources of Mongolian No. 5 and No. 3 will be relatively tight [14][17]. 5. Research Summary - The continuous low production of coking coal in Wuhai since the second half of this year has a significant impact on the national coking coal market. The coal mine resource integration in Wuhai takes a long time, environmental inspections remain high - intensity, and there will be safety inspections in November. It is expected that the supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia will be difficult to increase in the remaining time of this year. With the safety inspections in Shanxi coal mines in November and the impact of political chaos on Mongolian coal supply, a supply gap of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is expected to accumulate in November. Downstream coking enterprises can only passively accept the price increase of coking coal until significant production cuts by steel mills in December [18].

数据来源：同花顺iFinD，国投期货 注：趋势度= (收盘价-开盘价) / (最高价-最低价)；投机度= 成交量 / 持仓量 4.86%焦炭 2.06%硅铁 5.89%焦煤 1.43%不锈钢 0.94%锰硅 1.44%热卷 0.3%螺纹钢 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 日 均 持 仓 量 当 周 环 比 （ % ） 日均成交量当周环比（%） 黑色期货主连周涨跌幅% 数据来源：同花顺iFinD，国投期货（实体圆表示上涨，空心圆表示下跌，圆圈大小代表涨跌幅绝对值大小） 周度期货价量总览 商品类别 品种 周收盘价 周涨跌幅 20日年化波动率 波动率变化(%) 投机度 趋势度 资金变动 黄金 938.10 -6.17% 33.06% 35.38% 2.93 -0.12 -39.42 白银 11,332.00 -7.49% 33.91% 27.25% 3.77 -0.20 -28.50 铜 87,720.00 3.95% 22.82% -0.90% 0.55 0.46 54.81 2025年10月24日 星 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年10月24日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价连续第二个交易日反弹,布伦特12合约涨2.5%。俄乌地缘风险的急剧升温继续主导油 价反弹， 美国制裁的俄罗斯Rosneft和卢克石油在俄产能和炼能占比分别为46%、40%；周四欧盟正 式通过第19轮对俄制裁，涉及包括2家炼厂、1家国有贸易公司在内的4家中国企业，相关供应链风 险在中国购买俄油的贸易环节、卸港环节已有所显现。地缘风险带动油市短期震荡偏强,关注24- 27日中美马来会谈及后续俄美对话的进展。 (责金属) 隔夜金银反弹。美欧对俄执行新一轮制裁，中美即将举行新一轮贸易谈判，美国出动轰炸机飞越委 内瑞拉附近空域,全球局势不确定性强,风险情绪易产生摇摆。短期责金属可能进入阶段性高位震 荡，建议暂时观望等待参与机会。今晚关注美国9月CPI数据发布。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜增仓延续涨势，市场关注中美商务谈判形势。高金铜比提升同价多配韧性。昨日国内现铜 报85490元，上海升水10元，周内钢联社库减少5700至18.98万吨。暂时观望。 (铝) 原油带动商品普涨，沪铝延续震荡偏强。本周海外某铝厂因事故减产 ...