| | | | 国投期货 Million | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月23日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ★★☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★★☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★★☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，本周走势偏震荡，棉花现货成交一般，基差稳中偏强。国内棉花整体呈现供销两旺的局面,继续关注下游 的需求表现。截至1月15号，累计加工皮棉712.8万吨，同比增加63.1万吨，较过去四年均值增加126.0万吨；累计销售皮棉 440.9万吨，同比增加204.6万吨，较四年均值增加241万吨。国内12月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly rated [1] - Methanol: Not clearly rated [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Olefins: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are expected to have inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, while others may see supply contractions or demand improvements in the future [2][3] - Different products' investment opportunities vary, such as considering PX processing difference long - positions and positive spreads for PX and PTA in the second quarter, and seizing segmental market opportunities for ethylene glycol [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with no obvious supply pressure, reduced premium in real - order auctions, and increased downstream factory's wait - and - see sentiment [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures rose, but with limited fundamental support. Polyethylene will face increased supply pressure and weakened demand. Polypropylene has some support from supply, but overall demand is weak [2] Polyester - PX has new capacity in the second half of the year while PTA has none. There is an expected inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival due to demand decline. There are investment opportunities in the second quarter but need downstream demand cooperation [3] - Ethylene glycol has a small decline in weekly output, expected supply - demand double - drop and inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. There may be a phased improvement in the second quarter, but it is still under long - term pressure [3] - Short - fiber enterprises have high loads and low inventory, but downstream orders are weak. The price rises with raw materials due to increased downstream stocking [3] - Bottle - chip's processing difference is repaired, and it rises with market sentiment in the short term, but still faces long - term capacity pressure [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rose, with reduced supply and increased demand from styrene, leading to significant inventory reduction in East China ports. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and strong, and slow inventory reduction in the long - term [5] - Styrene futures rose, but the high price may restrict its upward space due to downstream's high - price aversion and reduced industry profit [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose in the afternoon. There is a short - term expectation of strong market due to expected import reduction in the first quarter and macro - atmosphere boost, despite high port inventory [6] - Urea futures showed a strong - side oscillation. With increased downstream factory开工 and agricultural demand approaching, it is likely to continue strong - side oscillation in the range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is running strongly. There is still inventory pressure, but it is expected to have a rising center of gravity due to possible capacity reduction and export rush [7] - Caustic soda futures are in an oscillating trend. The industry has high inventory and high - level operation. The profit of chlor - alkali integration is expected to be further compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in an oscillating and strong - side trend. It still faces supply - demand surplus pressure, with a short - term low - valuation following macro - fluctuations and a long - term high - selling strategy [8] - Glass is in a strong - side trend. There may be inventory accumulation pressure due to downstream holidays, and it may follow macro - sentiment fluctuations [8]

| | | | Milli | 国投期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月23日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 鐵 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ☆☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面继续反弹。本周螺纹表需小幅回落，产量有所回升，库存重新累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅回落，库存继续下降，压 力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从12月数据看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基 建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维 ...

【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 今日高低硫燃料油走势分化。低硫斑随原油因寒潮炒作消退及EIA超预期累库而回调;高硫则维持偏强,一方面 亚洲现货价差持续走强,另一方面地缘仍是核心矛盾 --- 美方称正向伊朗周边调集重兵,局势不确定性加剧。 中东地缘冲突不仅可能影响伊朗作为亚洲高疏重要来源的供应,还可能威胁中东区域航行安全,进而支撑高硫 预期。低硫虽受冬季需求、新加坡供应偏紧及柴油裂解走强支撑，但海外焼厂供应逐步恢复，后续压力或将显 现。需关注周末地缘局势演变,若冲突升温可能带动原油及燃料油价格波动。 【沥青】 | 2 œ œ S 1 34 . | I 9 | | --- | --- | | 28 | | | 5 | | | 0 | | | P | | | œ | | | 10. | | | 7 2 | | | 2 | | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2026年01月23日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-587 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The domestic cotton market shows a situation of strong supply and demand. The recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production in Brazil is coming to an end, and the market focuses on the output forecast for the next season. The production and sales progress of domestic sugar is slow, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - The futures price of apples fluctuates. The market trading logic turns to demand. The de - stocking speed may be affected, and a bearish operation is maintained [4]. - The price of butadiene rubber futures continued to rise, and the prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber futures followed suit. The supply of rubber decreases, inventory increases, and the strategy is a strong rebound [6]. - The pulp futures rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals are average due to weak downstream demand. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position, and the short - term trend is still range - bound [7]. - The futures price of logs fluctuates. Low inventory provides some support for prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today and was volatile this week. The spot transaction of cotton was average, and the basis was stable and slightly stronger [2]. - As of January 15th, the cumulative processed lint cotton was 7.128 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 631,000 tons. The cumulative sales of lint cotton were 4.409 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.046 million tons [2]. - China imported 180,000 tons of cotton in December, a year - on - year increase of 44,100 tons. The total import volume is expected to be difficult to increase [2]. - Spinning mills' demand for raw materials is still resilient, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's production is ending, and the market focuses on the next season's output forecast. Rainfall in the central - southern region is a concern [3]. - The sugar - alcohol price ratio has dropped significantly, and the sugar - making ratio in the next season is expected to decline, reducing Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season [3]. - The production and sales progress of domestic sugar is slow. The weak sales are due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Apple - The futures price is volatile, and the spot price is stable. During the Spring Festival stocking period, the purchase of fruit farmers' goods is small [4]. - As of January 22nd, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.3232 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [4]. - The market trading logic turns to demand. The high acquisition price and strong reluctance to sell may affect the de - stocking speed. A bearish operation is maintained [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - The price of butadiene rubber futures continued to rise, and the prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber futures followed suit. The market sentiment of energy - chemical products is optimistic [6]. - The global natural rubber supply enters the production - reduction period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate decreased slightly this week [6]. - The domestic full - steel tire operating rate declined slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate continued to rise significantly. The inventory of Shandong tire enterprises increased [6]. - The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 584,900 tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 15,600 tons [6]. - The strategy is a strong rebound [6]. Pulp - The pulp futures rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals are average due to weak downstream demand [7]. - As of January 22nd, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.068 million tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous period [7]. - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing, and the prices of foreign softwood and hardwood pulp have increased [7]. - Paper mills purchase pulp mainly for rigid demand. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position, and the short - term trend is range - bound [7]. Timber - The futures price fluctuates, and the spot price is stable. The foreign price is lowered, and the domestic price is weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease [8]. - As of January 16th, the average daily outbound volume of 13 national ports was 61,600 cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 33.33% [8]. - As of January 16th, the national port log inventory was 257,000 cubic meters, a 4.46% decrease from the previous period. Low inventory provides support, and it is recommended to wait and see [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment of commodities has warmed up, and the steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron markets have all shown varying degrees of rebound, but the market sentiment remains cautious, and the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen [1][2][3][5][6][7] - The fundamentals of the iron ore market are relatively loose, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] - The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a low level. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][5] - For silicon manganese and silicon iron, it is recommended to short on rebounds [6][7] Summary by Category Steel - The steel market continues to rebound. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel has slightly declined, production has increased, and inventory has accumulated again. The demand and production of hot-rolled steel have both slightly declined, and inventory has continued to decrease. The profits of steel mills are poor, the downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron production has stabilized [1] - From the December data, the decline in real estate investment has continued to widen, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline, domestic demand remains weak overall, and steel exports remain high [1] Iron Ore - The global shipping volume of iron ore has seasonally declined but remains at a high level year-on-year. The inventory at domestic ports has increased significantly this week and continues to accumulate. The structural contradiction remains to be resolved [2] - On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off-season fluctuates at a low level, the resumption of production of steel mills has been disturbed, and molten iron production has remained basically flat this week, with little significant increase expected in the short term [2] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory is at a relatively low level, and there is still an expectation of winter storage replenishment demand [2] Coke - The price of coke has continued to rebound during the day. The first round of price increase for coke has been shelved, the coking profit is average, and daily production has slightly decreased. Coke inventory has increased slightly, and the purchasing意愿 of traders is average [3] - Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off-season. It remains to be seen whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and there is still a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices [3] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal has slightly rebounded during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,046 vehicles. The production of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the spot auction transactions have maintained a relatively high level. Driven by the increase in the futures price, the transaction prices have varied. Terminal inventory has increased significantly [5] - The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the production-side inventory has slightly increased. The winter storage demand continues to be strong [5] - Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off-season. It remains to be seen whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and there is still a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices [5] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese has slightly rebounded during the day. Driven by the rebound in the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased [6] - There is a structural problem with the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the formula of the manganese ore charged into the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase [6] - On the demand side, molten iron production has seasonally decreased. The weekly production of silicon manganese has slightly decreased, and the inventory of silicon manganese has slightly decreased [6] Silicon Iron - The price of silicon iron has slightly rebounded during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong [7] - The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices [7] - On the demand side, molten iron production has rebounded to a high level. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall, demand still has resilience [7] - The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly, and inventory has slightly decreased [7]

★特朗普称与泽连斯基会晤"非常好"。泽连斯基表示，乌美俄将于23日在阿联酋举行三方会谈。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 | 国际 首页 > | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月23日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属表现强势,金银继续刷新历史新高。特朗普称关于格陵兰岛的协议将允许美国对格陵兰岛实现全 面准入,如 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月23日 | | 豆一 | 女女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 標｜油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 五米 | ななな | | | 生猪 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约价格从低位回升,并伴随增仓。本周五国产大豆继续进行购销双向交易,交易数量38114吨, 全部成交，底价3950元/吨,成交均价3950元/吨,溢价0元/吨。跟本周三成交价格持平。持续关注政策端和现 货端的指引。 【大豆&豆粕】 ...

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安如泰山 信守承诺 黄金:地缘风险频现,金价重心抬升 点石成金 2026年以来，围绕委内瑞拉、伊朗以及格陵兰岛的地缘事件纷至沓来，特朗普对于全球秩序的挑战加剧政 治经济前景不确定性,国际金价涨幅接近15%。 过去一周地缘紧张迅速传导至金融市场，VIX波动率指数飙升至12月以来最高水平。今日特朗普称已通过一 项北约协议,将允许美国对格陵兰岛实现全面准入,如果欧洲抛售美国资产,将面临重大报复,并再次重申将 对与伊朗有贸易往来的国家加征关税。此外有关人士称特朗普政府正寻求年底前推动古巴政权更迭。 国投期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构,已具备期货投资咨询业务资 格。 伴随着国际常规秩序的撕裂，美元信用体系也受到冲击。黄金天然具备充当货币的优良特点，以自然为背 书成为对冲货币信用工具,与美元信用此消彼长。黄金此轮牛市核心逻辑是货币超发,债务膨胀，美元作为全 球法定货币核心地位动摇，黄金价值重估。美债规模已接近39万亿美元，国际货币基金组织预测2030年美国债 务规模超过50万亿美元，占GDP比重将从120%升至140%。近期特朗普在社交平台宣布决定将2027年美国军事预算 从原计划的1万亿美元大幅提升至 ...