操作评级 【原油】 上周五,美伊在阿曼举行会谈,旨在缓和伊核问题引发的紧张关系。双方均对会谈给予积极评价,并计划本周 继续磋商。市场短期认为局势失控风险降低,对冲突和供应中断的担忧有所缓解。这一判断也与政治现实相 符:考虑到低油价承诺及中期选举临近,美方在选前主动升级局势的可能性较低。然而伊朗态度依然强硬，其 外长强调承认轴浓缩权利是谈判关键，双方核心分歧显著,僵局可能持续。而特朗普在委内瑞拉的成功或增强 其对伊朗的施压信心,不愿轻易让步。因此短期内对峙难有突破。布伦特油价在68-70美元区间大幅震荡，反映 出在谈判前景不明、对峙持续的背景下，市场持续计入地缘风险溢价。预计油价将保持高波动性，且继续蕴含 显著的地缘政治风险溢价。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 燃料油市场整体仍以跟随原油波动为主。就其自身而言,高疏燃料油短期受地缘与现货双重支撑,短期韧性较 好。她缘上,中东局势不仅作用于原油成本,也因该地区高硫资源对亚洲市场具有难以替代的结构性地位,从 而直接支撑高硫价格。现货则因加注需求、国内对委内缺口替代采购及俄罗斯供应受阻而持续偏紧,新加坡 380cst现货升贴水已至季节性高位。中期来看，苦地缘风险缓和，在OP ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Urea: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand patterns of various chemical products are affected by factors such as approaching the Spring Festival, production capacity changes, and downstream demand. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, and the market trends vary, with some showing short - term fluctuations and others having long - term pressure or improvement expectations [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of acrylonitrile futures declined during the day. Although there is an expected increase in supply, the pre - holiday supply shortage is difficult to reverse. Demand is mainly rational buying. The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures also declined, and as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand support for the market weakens [2] Polyester - PX and PTA futures prices fluctuated during the day. PX is recommended for long - position allocation in the first half of the year, but currently, the demand is declining, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. PTA load increased slightly, and the processing margin declined. Ethylene glycol inventory increased, but the rate of accumulation slowed down. In the second quarter, there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand. Short fiber has a good supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders. Bottle chip processing margin has recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene continued to decline, and the spot market trading slowed down. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is expected to improve around the Spring Festival. The main contract of styrene futures declined, and the supply - demand structure will weaken until the Spring Festival, with seasonal inventory accumulation after the festival [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol overseas plant operation rate declined. Coastal demand is weak, and it is difficult to reduce inventory in the short term. Domestic production increased, and the main production areas have smooth inventory clearance. After the Spring Festival, the methanol market may slowly reduce inventory. Urea daily production is high, and the market is supported by agricultural and reserve demand. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to increase significantly [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC fluctuated slightly. The industry will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthening, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. Caustic soda is running strongly, but the profit is compressed, and there may be supply reduction due to potential maintenance. It is expected to run around the cost [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is running weakly, with increasing inventory and high supply. It is recommended to short on rebounds. Glass futures prices fluctuated upward, with inventory increasing and production capacity compressing. It is recommended to look for low - value buying opportunities [8]

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月09日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | | | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | なな☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | | 【豆一】 豆一震荡。假期前注意控制风险。中央一号文件显示国产大豆继续推进单产提升，面积方面出台保障政策，种 植利润多项措施保护。近期政策端继续拍卖大豆,市场边际供应增加,成交价格偏强,近期地缘与宏观风险事 件比较集中,且方向尚不明确,需要关注宏观对整体商品的引导。短期持续关注政策和市场情绪的表现。 【豆粕&菜粕】 上周中美两国元首电话沟通后,特朗普单方面在社交媒体表示我国会购买更 ...

今日盘面馈性下挫。随着春节临近，螺纹表需加速下滑，产量同步回落，库存继续累积。热卷需求有所回落，产量短期趋稳, 库存小幅累积。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大， 基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位。需求预期偏弱，市场人气低迷，盘面短期延续缩量 阴跌走势，关注区间下沿支撑及市场风向变化。 | | | 【铁矿】 | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年02月09日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | ...

(白糖) 上周美糖震荡。市场的关注点转向下榨季的产量预估，进入雨季后巴西中南部主产区的降雨偏少，不利于甘蔗的生长。另外， 由于糖醇比价大幅回调。预计下榨季的制糖比也将下降，26/27榨季巴西的产糖量将有所减少。国内方面，郑糖弱势震荡。产销 方面,截至1月31日，2025/26年榨季广西累计产混合糖402.90万吨，同比减少78.80万吨；累计销糖155.06万吨，同比减少 83.03万吨；工业库存247.84万吨，同比增加4.23万吨。从产销数据来看，生产和销售进度都偏慢。 销量大幅下降的主要原因是 市场看空情绪较强，导致采购较少。产量方面，虽然25/26榨季广西增产预期较强，但是生产进度始终偏慢，关注后续生产情 况，操作上暂时观望。 (苹果) 期价震荡。现货方面,主流价格持稳。春节备货进入高峰,西北产区冷库成交量显著提高,部分货源价格走强。山东方面,主 产区客商数量依然较多,发货量较大。需求方面,整体销售情况良好。库存方面,卓创的数据显示,截至2月5日,全国冷库率 娱库存为563.51万吨，同比下降9%。全国冷库苹果出库量为37.5万吨，同比下降12.81%。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易逻辑转 向需求。今年苹 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 (原油) 美伊局势出现缓和，降低了短期内原油市场对中东爆发军事冲突并导致原油供应中断的担忧,油价 随之下行。布伦特原油主力合约回落至67美元/桶，WTI原油价格也下跌至63美元/桶附近。上周 五，伊朗与美国在阿曼举行会谈，旨在缓和围绕伊朗核计划的地缘政治紧张关系。伊朗总统佩泽希 齐扬称此次会谈是"向前迈出的一步",美方亦表示将于本周初举行进一步会议。总体来看,她缘 政治事件对原油价格的影响呈现阶段性、间歇性特征。当前全球石油市场仍面临显著的库存累积压 力。在多空因素交织的背景下,预计油价波动加剧的态势仍将持续。 【责金属】 周五贵金属反弹。上周美国公布多项经济数据喜忧参半,市场聚焦本周非农就业和CPI数据以重新评 估降息前景。美伊谈判将会继续，地缘仍存在不确定性。短期责金属处于剧烈震荡阶段，观望等待 波动率下降。 【铜】 上周铜价走势与黄金近似,呈相对高位的反复震荡。沪铜加权已减仓至57万手,节前最后一周风控 引导下，整体仓量可能缩至55万手。周内沪铜给予两次9.9万以下节前备货点价机会，现货交授明 显回暖。目前铜市交投在长线叙事与供需弱现实 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, indicating a clear downward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆, indicating a clear downward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Iron: ★☆★, indicating a complex situation with some bullish factors [1] Core Views - The overall market sentiment is bearish, and most varieties are under pressure in the short - term. The market is affected by factors such as weak domestic demand, high inventories, and profit pressures on steel mills [1] - The supply of carbon - containing elements (coke and coking coal) is abundant, and downstream demand is in the off - season. Prices are likely to fluctuate within a range [3][5] - For iron ore, the supply is relatively loose, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [2] - Silicon manganese and silicon iron are affected by factors such as supply surplus and the "anti - involution" concept, with prices showing certain fluctuations [6][7] Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices continued to decline. Thread demand and production both decreased this week, while inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - roll demand declined, production was stable in the short - term, and inventory slightly increased [1] - Steel mill profits are poor, downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, blast furnace复产 has slowed down, and hot - metal production has stabilized [1] - From the perspective of downstream industries, real - estate investment decline has widened, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth has continued to fall, domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports remain high [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron - ore futures prices fell. Globally, the shipping volume is at a seasonal low. Although Australia has entered the hurricane season, the impact on production and shipping is limited [2] - China's port arrivals are relatively strong year - on - year, and port inventories have continued to accumulate to a historical high this week. There is still some structural support in the short - term [2] - In the off - season, terminal demand has weakened. Hot - metal production has slightly increased, but there is no significant motivation for复产 in the short - term. As the Spring Festival approaches, steel - mill inventory replenishment is coming to an end [2] Coke - Today's coke prices fluctuated downward. Coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly decreased. Coke inventories have slightly increased, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [3] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream hot - metal production is at an off - season level, steel profits are average, and the downstream has a strong willingness to suppress raw - material prices [3] - The coke futures price is at a premium, and the coking - coal futures price is at a premium to Mongolian coal. The market has certain expectations for the "anti - involution" policy. Mongolian coal customs - clearance data shows a slight seasonal decline. Affected by the overall market sentiment, coking - coal prices are unlikely to decline significantly and are likely to fluctuate within a range [3][5] Coking Coal - Today's coking - coal prices fluctuated downward. Yesterday, the customs - clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,261 trucks. Coking - coal mine production has slightly increased [5] - Spot auction transactions are inversely proportional to the futures price fluctuations. Affected by the volatile futures prices, transaction prices have mainly decreased slightly, and terminal inventories have increased significantly [5] - The total coking - coal inventory has increased significantly, production - end inventories have slightly increased, and winter - storage demand is coming to an end [5] Silicon Manganese - Today's silicon - manganese prices mainly fluctuated. The transaction price of spot manganese ore has slightly decreased. The futures market has entered a non - arbitrage space, and the downward space is relatively small. The market is waiting for steel tenders [6] - Manganese - ore port inventories may start to slowly accumulate. Although mine shipments have increased month - on - month, mine costs have increased compared to previous years, and the price - concession space may be relatively limited [6] - Hot - metal production is at a seasonal low. Silicon - manganese weekly production has slightly increased, and there is no significant driving force for a large - scale decline [6] Silicon Iron - Today's silicon - iron prices mainly fluctuated. In some production areas, power costs have indeed decreased, and the price of blue charcoal has slightly decreased. The main production areas are still mainly in a loss state [7] - Hot - metal production is at an off - season level. Export demand remains above 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Magnesium - metal production has continued to increase month - on - month, and secondary demand has marginally increased. Overall demand still has some resilience [7] - Silicon - iron supply has changed little, and inventories have slightly decreased. Prices are affected by supply surplus and the repeated fermentation of the "anti - involution" concept [7]

| V V > | | 2026年02月06日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標 潟 海 | な女女 | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一震荡。CBOT大豆表现强势,因对美豆出口预期转好。中央一号文件显示国产大豆继续推进单产提升，面积 方面出台保障政策,种植利润多项措施保护。本周政策端继续拍卖大豆,市场边际供应增加,成交价格偏强, 成交均价4298元/吨、溢价210-310元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (implies a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★★☆ (indicates a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ (suggests an upward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Ethylene: ★☆☆ (implies an upward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ (not clearly defined in the star - rating description, but the position implies a certain trend) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (suggests a downward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (suggests an upward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (suggests an upward - driving trend but poor market operability) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical situations, with different products showing different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] - Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand relationship of various chemical products is changing, and the market is in a state of adjustment. After the Spring Festival, the market trends of different products need to be further observed [2][3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures showed a pattern of first decline and then rise, with a tight supply pattern before the festival. The demand side was mainly rational buyers [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures rose, but the downward trend along the 5 - day moving average continued. The demand support for the market weakened [2] Polyester - Geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices, and PX and PTA rebounded. PX is recommended for long - term allocation in the first half of the year, but there is an expected inventory build - up around the Spring Festival [3] - Ethylene glycol inventory increased. It will oscillate in the short term, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter, but it is under long - term pressure [3] - Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but downstream orders are weak. The absolute price follows the raw materials [3] - Bottle chip processing margin has recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure. Consider positive spread trading opportunities after the Spring Festival [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The spot price of pure benzene in East China fell, and the downstream comprehensive capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. The short - term market is affected by cost and demand, and the fundamentals may weaken [5] - Styrene futures fluctuated narrowly around the 5 - day moving average. After the Spring Festival, there are uncertainties on the supply side, which still support the market [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The start - up of overseas methanol plants increased, and the coastal demand weakened. The domestic methanol inventory is transferred downstream, and the short - term fundamentals are weak [6] - The urea price is stable. The domestic output is increasing, and the market will oscillate within a range before the Spring Festival [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices declined. The industry will enter a seasonal inventory build - up period, but it is expected to rise due to cost support and export demand [7] - Caustic soda is running weakly. The cost support is strong, but the downstream negative feedback continues. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is running weakly. The inventory pressure is high, and it is recommended to take a high - short strategy in the long term [8] - Glass prices declined. There is inventory build - up pressure during the Spring Festival. It is expected to oscillate widely [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (predicted upward trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (predicted upward trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (short-term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current market, advisable to wait and see) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★ (predicted upward trend, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has a significant impact on the energy market, and the oil price is expected to continue to fluctuate sharply [3] - High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a strong trend due to supply and demand and geopolitical factors, while low-sulfur fuel oil is under pressure [4] - The supply pressure of asphalt is limited, consumption has improved, and the price is expected to continue to strengthen [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, the crude oil market was affected by the alternating tension and relaxation of the US-Iran geopolitical situation, and the oil price maintained a fluctuating trend. The main contract of SC crude oil futures fell slightly by 0.6% (-2.9 yuan/barrel) compared to last Friday [3] - The premium of the near-month contract over the far-month contract has dropped more significantly. The market's concern about the interruption of crude oil supply due to a direct military conflict in the Middle East has temporarily eased [3] - Geopolitical news has a phased and intermittent impact on crude oil prices. The current global oil market inventory accumulation pressure is still significant, and the situation of intensified oil price fluctuations is expected to continue [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil: Geopolitics is the current main contradiction. Due to the high uncertainty of future geopolitical evolution and the structural irreplaceability of high-sulfur resources in the Middle East to the Asian market, the price is supported. The spot price difference remains strong, indicating a tight supply and demand pattern, and it is expected to continue the strong trend [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: It is facing greater pressure. Overseas refinery device problems persist, and the arrival of arbitrage cargoes from the West will increase marginal supply. With the arrival of the shipping off-season around the Spring Festival, demand support is expected to weaken, and the overall market is under pressure [4] Asphalt - Some local refineries in Shandong have shut down production, and the main refineries in the south have maintained intermittent production. The scheduled production in February has decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, and the supply pressure is limited [5] - As of the end of January, the cumulative year-on-year increase in the shipment volume of 54 sample enterprises was 4.9%, and the consumption performance has improved year-on-year [5] - A domestic chemical company bid for Canadian Cold Lake crude oil at a discount of $5 per barrel compared to Brent crude oil as a substitute for Venezuelan crude oil. It is expected that refineries will face an increase in the cost of substitute raw materials after the second quarter, and the futures contracts for relevant months have relatively high increases. The asphalt price is expected to continue the strong trend, and the cracking spread is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [5]