1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 蒙古口岸原煤库提价 A10.5，V28，S<0.6%，G83 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 普氏峰景 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 900.00 1400.00 1900.00 2400.00 2900.00 3400.00 3900.00 4400.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 沙河驿进口主焦 A11，V26，S0.7，G80，Y15，CSR60 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 60.00 160.00 260.00 360.00 460.00 560.00 660.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 普氏中挥发 1900/1/4 免责声明 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观、 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View No explicit core view presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 5, 2025, was 5062.00. The closing prices from September 1 - 5 showed slight fluctuations, with the highest daily increase of 0.43842% on September 1 [3]. - The converted US - dollar prices from September 1 - 5 were between 615.59 - 618.92, and the daily changes in prices were between 0.03960% - 0.43842% [3]. - The basis of Shandong Yinxing and Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing decreased from September 1 - 5, with the Shandong Yinxing basis dropping from 710 to 653 and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis dropping from 725 to 673 [3]. Import Price and Profit Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp brands like Golden Lion and Lion, and Chilean brand Silver Star, all had negative import profits. Golden Lion had an import profit of - 63.20, Lion had - 509.79, and Silver Star had - 164.10 [4]. Pulp and Paper Price Information - From September 1 - 5, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemi - mechanical pulp remained unchanged, with the softwood pulp at 6073.75, hardwood pulp at 4810.75, natural pulp at 5415.00, and chemi - mechanical pulp at 3686.25 [4]. - The average prices in Shandong region for these pulp types also remained unchanged during the same period [4]. - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset paper and double - copper paper), packaging paper (white cardboard), and living paper remained stable from September 2 - 5, 2025. The double - offset index was 5725, double - copper index was 5670, white - card index was 4350, and living index was 835 [4]. - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white cardboard, and living paper had little change from September 2 - 5, 2025. The double - offset paper profit margin was around 2.6354% - 3.1399%, double - copper paper was around 18.6625% - 18.7675%, white cardboard was around - 13.5802% - - 13.4938%, and living paper was around 7.4897% - 7.5279% [4]. Pulp Price Difference Information - From September 1 - 5, 2025, the price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemi - mechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper pulp showed some fluctuations. The softwood - hardwood price difference decreased from 1560 to 1525, the softwood - natural price difference decreased from 350 to 315, the softwood - chemi - mechanical price difference decreased from 1925 to 1890, and the softwood - waste paper price difference decreased from 4174 to 4139 [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan. The domestic stock market volatility increased, and the market risk - preference volatility rose. Overseas, the expectation of a US interest - rate cut supported commodity prices. In the domestic market, the monthly spread of Shanghai copper slightly increased, the spot import window opened, and the LME cash - 3m spread narrowed. The short - term scrap - refined substitution effect may decline marginally. With the arrival of the consumption peak season in September, the domestic consumption is expected to be boosted, and attention should be paid to the price - fixing support of Shanghai copper at 78,500 - 79,500 yuan [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, and imports from January to July provided an increment. Downstream construction improved, but overseas demand declined significantly. In September, inventory is expected to decrease. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. In the context of low inventory, hold at low prices and pay attention to the far - month spread and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. The domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased. In September, smelting production decreased slightly due to concentrated maintenance. Overseas, the quarterly mine increment exceeded expectations, and zinc ore imports in July reached the highest in the past three years. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while overseas European demand is average. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets may further differentiate. In terms of strategy, it is supported by the interest - rate cut expectation and domestic commodity sentiment in the short - term, and a medium - to - long - term short position can be configured. The internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued, and attention can be paid to the 10 - 12 positive arbitrage opportunity [2]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, and inventory increased slightly in the domestic market and significantly overseas. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the macro - level "anti - involution" sentiment has risen again. The geopolitical risk in Indonesia has been alleviated, and production is not affected for the time being [3][4]. - For stainless steel, supply is expected to gradually resume in northern regions affected by the military parade. Demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. Costs are relatively stable, and inventory remains at a certain level. The overall fundamentals are weak, and it follows the "anti - involution" expectation in the short - term [5]. - Lead prices fluctuated this week. Supply is expected to be tight, with the LME registered warehouse receipts decreasing by 10,000 tons. Demand has improved slightly, but inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the supply will remain flat in September, and the price will maintain a low - level fluctuation, with an expected range of 16,800 - 16,900 yuan [6]. - Tin prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to be tight, with some domestic smelters reducing production and overseas production recovery facing constraints. Demand has a peak - season expectation but also has some uncertainties. The domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold near the cost line in the medium - to - long - term [6][8]. - For industrial silicon, the resumption of production in Xinjiang is slow, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. The current balance in September is in a tight state, and the balance change mainly depends on the resumption of production of Hesheng. In the short - term, the supply - demand relationship in September and October remains in a tight balance. In the medium - to - long - term, the industry is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [9]. - Carbonate lithium prices fluctuated this week. The current market has sufficient spot supply and good downstream peak - season restocking. The core contradiction is the resource - side compliance disturbance under the background of over - capacity. During the seasonal peak season, the monthly balance turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is small. Before the supply - side disturbance is realized, the price has strong downward support, and after the realization, the price elasticity is high [10][11]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Market Conditions**: This week, copper prices fluctuated around 80,000 yuan. The domestic stock market was volatile, and overseas, the interest - rate cut expectation supported commodity prices. The monthly spread of Shanghai copper increased slightly, the spot import window opened, and the LME cash - 3m spread narrowed [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The scrap - refined spread of copper slightly recovered. The start - up rate of downstream enterprises is expected to increase in September. The supply side has some maintenance and production reduction. The short - term scrap - refined substitution effect may decline marginally [1]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the price - fixing support of Shanghai copper at 78,500 - 79,500 yuan [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices fluctuated slightly. Supply increased slightly, and downstream construction improved, but overseas demand declined significantly [1]. - **Inventory**: In September, inventory is expected to decrease [1]. - **Strategy**: In the context of low inventory, hold at low prices and pay attention to the far - month spread and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Conditions**: Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. The domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September, smelting production decreased slightly due to concentrated maintenance. Overseas, the quarterly mine increment exceeded expectations. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas European demand is average [2]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory oscillated and increased, and overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term support from interest - rate cut expectation and domestic commodity sentiment, medium - to - long - term short position configuration. Continue to hold the internal - external positive arbitrage and pay attention to the 10 - 12 positive arbitrage opportunity [2]. Nickel - **Price and Market Conditions**: Nickel prices declined slightly. Supply remained at a high level, and demand was weak overall [3][4]. - **Inventory**: Inventory increased slightly in the domestic market and significantly overseas [3][4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the geopolitical situation in Indonesia [3][4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Conditions**: Stainless steel prices fluctuated slightly. Supply is expected to gradually resume, and demand is mainly driven by rigid needs [5]. - **Cost and Inventory**: Costs are relatively stable, and inventory remains at a certain level [5]. - **Strategy**: The overall fundamentals are weak, and it follows the "anti - involution" expectation in the short - term [5]. Lead - **Price and Market Conditions**: Lead prices fluctuated. Supply is expected to be tight, and demand has improved slightly [6]. - **Inventory**: Inventory is at a high level, and the exchange inventory has reached a historical high of nearly 70,000 tons [6]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the price will maintain a low - level fluctuation, with an expected range of 16,800 - 16,900 yuan [6]. Tin - **Price and Market Conditions**: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly. Supply is expected to be tight, and demand has a peak - season expectation [6][8]. - **Inventory**: Domestic inventory decreased slightly, and overseas LME inventory is at a low level [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term and hold near the cost line in the medium - to - long - term [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Conditions**: Industrial silicon prices fluctuated. The resumption of production in Xinjiang is slow, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The current balance in September is in a tight state, and the balance change mainly depends on the resumption of production of Hesheng [9]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the supply - demand relationship in September and October remains in a tight balance. In the medium - to - long - term, the industry is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [9]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Market Conditions**: Carbonate lithium prices fluctuated. The market has sufficient spot supply and good downstream peak - season restocking [10]. - **Core Contradiction**: The core contradiction is the resource - side compliance disturbance under the background of over - capacity [10]. - **Inventory and Strategy**: During the seasonal peak season, the monthly balance turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is small. Before the supply - side disturbance is realized, the price has strong downward support, and after the realization, the price elasticity is high [10][11].

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/08 ·克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫：（普京）与美国总统特朗普的可能会谈目前尚未做准备，但可能迅速安排。 ·消息人士：印度最大炼油商印度石油公司在最新招标中避免购买美国原油，转而购买200万桶西非原油和100万桶中东 原油。 ·特朗普在周四致电欧洲领导人时表示，欧洲必须停止购买俄罗斯石油。 ·路透调查：欧佩克8月石油产量较7月增加36万桶/日，达到2784万桶/日。 ·德商银行：原油市场过剩态势可能会进一步加剧金十数据9月5日讯，德国商业银行大宗商品分析师Carsten Fritsch指 出，路透社报道称，欧佩克+可能在周日的自愿减产国视频会议上考虑进一步增产，受此消息影响，油价承压下行。若 欧佩克+确实进一步增产，今年秋季及明年的原油市场过剩态势（本已相当严重）可能会进一步加剧。届时，欧佩克+可 能在明年被迫再次削减供应，以防止油价大幅跌至60美元以下。 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NY ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/08 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/09/01 | 3170 | 3240 | 3270 | 3210 | 3260 | 3280 | | 2025/09/02 | 3170 | 3220 | 3270 | 3210 | 3260 | 3250 | | 2025/09/03 | 3160 | 3210 | 3250 | 3200 | 3260 | 3250 | | 2025/09/04 | 3200 | 3210 | 3250 | 3200 | 3260 | 3240 | | 2025/09/05 | 3200 | 3260 | 3300 | 3240 | 3300 | 3290 | | 变化 | 0 | 50 | 50 | 40 | 40 | 50 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 ...

| 00 m 2011 11: | | --- | | PAULOSAS PUNICE SOUNCE POINT | | Company of Children of Children | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 国外货币市场 债 券 市 场 国内债券市场 国外债券市场 股 票 市 场 汇 率 市 场 | | 全 球 资 产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, downstream is booking shipping space for mid - September (week 37 - 38), with a weekly decline of about 150 points in the past month. Week 37 has an average quote of 2125 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the disk). Due to no bookings during the festival, there is less cargo in the following week. In terms of valuation, the cost - performance is relatively low. The fundamental drivers will still be weak in the next one and a half months, but shipping companies may announce price increases to stabilize prices. It is expected that the short - term 12 - contract will mainly fluctuate, and capital position - shifting behavior may cause disturbances [2][32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Information - **EC Futures Contracts**: EC2510 closed at 1315.3 with a 1.12% increase, EC2512 at 1715.6 with a 2.36% increase, EC2602 at 1542.0 with a 1.53% increase, EC2604 at 1259.8 with a 0.96% increase, and EC2606 at 1447.5 with a 0.31% increase. The trading volumes were 23721, 9362, 1401, 652, and 96 respectively, and the open interests were 48765, 16225, 5640, 7240, and 921 respectively, with changes of - 1198, - 222, - 13, - 66, and - 22 respectively [2][32]. - **Futures Month - spread**: EC2510 - 2512 was - 400.3, with a daily change of - 25.0; EC2512 - 2602 was 173.6, with a daily change of 16.3 [2][32]. 3.2 Spot Index Information - **SCFIS SCFI (European Line)**: Updated on Mondays and Fridays. On September 1 and 5, 2025, it was 1773.6 and 1315 US dollars/TEU respectively, with a current - period decline of - 10.88% and - 11.21% compared to the previous period, and - 8.71% and - 11.21% compared to the two - period ago [2][32]. - **CCFI**: Updated weekly on Fridays. On September 5, 2025, it was 1638.77, with a - 2.79% decline compared to the previous period and - 4.09% compared to the two - period ago [2][32]. - **NCFI**: Updated weekly on Fridays. On September 5, 2025, it was 855.93 points, with a - 7.92% decline compared to the previous period and - 14.23% compared to the two - period ago [2][32]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation - **Week 37**: The average quote was 2100 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the disk). MSK was initially 1900 US dollars and then rose to 1950, PA was 2100 - 2150, and OA was 2100 - 2300 [3][33]. - **Week 38**: The average quote was 1870 US dollars (equivalent to 1300 points on the disk). MSK was initially 1700 US dollars and then rose to 1740, PA&MSC was 1800 - 2000, and OA was 1900 - 2020 [3][33].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a morning report on methanol and polyolefins, released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on September 8, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Methanol Analysis - **Price Data**: From September 1 - 5, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801, while prices of various methanol spot markets and related indicators showed certain changes. For example, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2230 to 2280, with a daily change of 25 [2] - **Viewpoint**: The trading logic is the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new - device stocking increment from Lianhong, but port back - flow will impact the inland. Currently, the price is benchmarked against inland prices. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Back - flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Valuation, inventory, and drivers are not favorable, so bottom - fishing should wait [2] Group 3: Plastic (Polyethylene) Analysis - **Price Data**: From September 1 - 5, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 840. Prices of different polyethylene products in various regions and related indicators had some changes. For example, the price of East China LD decreased from 9615 to 9575, with a daily change of - 15 [6] - **Viewpoint**: Polyethylene inventory is neutral overall. The two - oil inventory is neutral year - on - year, with upstream two - oil and coal - chemical industries de - stocking, and social inventory remaining flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price differences are volatile. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as new - device commissioning in 2025 [6] Group 4: PP (Polypropylene) Analysis - **Price Data**: From September 1 - 5, 2025, prices of various polypropylene - related products and indicators changed. For example, Shandong propylene decreased from 6580 to 6540, with a daily change of - 50 [8] - **Viewpoint**: Polypropylene upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are de - stocking. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports are good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral, and prices in Europe and the US are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is volatile, and powder production starts are stable. Drawing production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have a slightly excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is high, supply pressure can be relieved to a neutral level [8] Group 5: PVC Analysis - **Price Data**: From September 1 - 5, 2025, prices of various PVC - related products and indicators changed. For example, Shandong caustic soda increased from 882 to 892, with a daily change of 10 [8] - **Viewpoint**: The basis of 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operation starts are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Summer maintenance of northwest devices is seasonal, and the load center is between spring maintenance and Q1 high production. In Q4, attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability. Near - term export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is good, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer of caustic soda is FOB380. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation starts [8]

翡运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/9/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | हिले | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1315.3 | 1.12 | 458.3 | 23721 | | 48765 | - 11 98 | | | EC2512 | | 1715.6 | 2.36 | 58.0 | 9362 | | 16225 | -222 | | | EC2602 | | 1542.0 | 1.53 | 231.6 | 1401 | | 5640 | - 1 3 | | | EC2604 | | 1259.8 | 0.96 | 513.8 | | 652 | 7240 | -66 | | | EC2606 | | 1447.5 | 0.31 | 326.1 | | 96 | 921 | - 22 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 目环 ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/08 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 民间出口商报告向未知目的地出口销售123，000吨大豆 民间出口商报告向未知目的地出口销售123,000吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付运。 此外，民间出口商向美国农业部报告，报告期内共收到大豆204，650吨，将在2025/2026市场年度付运到未知目的 地。 8月28日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增79.47万吨符合预期 USDA周五公布的出口销售报告显示，8月28日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净减2.38万吨，市场此前预 估为净减30.0万吨至净增5.0万吨。 当周，美国下一市场年度大豆出口销售净增81.85万吨，市场此前预估为净增60.0万吨至净增160.0万吨。 当周美国大豆出口装船为45.70万吨，较之前一周增加12%，较此前四周均值减少13%。 当周，美国当前市场年度大豆新销售10.08万吨。美国下一市场年度大豆新销售89.47万吨。 8月28日止当周美国豆粕出口销售合计净增14.14万吨符合预期 USDA出口销售报告显示，8月28日止当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕出口销售净减0.43万吨，为市场年度低点 ...