油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/01 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 美国2025年6月1日当季大豆库存为10.07664亿蒲式耳，高于预期 美国农业部(USDA)公布的季度谷物库存报告显示，美国2025年6月1日当季大豆库存为10.07664亿蒲式耳，分析师预 估为9.80亿蒲式耳。 数据显示，6月1日美国农场内大豆库存为4.11700亿蒲式耳，农场外库存为5.95964亿蒲式耳。 美国2025年大豆种植面积预估为8,338.0万英亩，低于市场预期 USDA公布的种植面积报告显示，美国2025年大豆种植面积预估为8,338.0万英亩，市场此前预估为8,365.5万英亩。 2024年实际种植面积为8,705.0万英亩。 截至6月29日当周美国大豆优良率持稳于66%，低于市场预期 美国农业部(USDA)在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至2025年6月29日当周，美国大豆优良率为66%,低于市场预期 的67%，前一周为66%，上年同期为67%。 截至当周，美国大豆出苗率为94%，上一周为90%，上年同期为94%，五年均值为95%。美国大豆开花率为17%，上一 周为8%，上年同期为18%，五年均值为16 ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/07/01 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/24 | 2166 | 2254 | 2019 | 2158 | 2181 | 2102 | | 2025/06/25 | 2164 | 2250 | 2018 | 2143 | 2181 | 2099 | | 2025/06/26 | 2164 | 2249 | 2015 | 2138 | 2180 | 2094 | | 2025/06/27 | 2161 | 2247 | 2011 | 2137 | 2180 | 2092 | | 2025/06/30 | 2163 | 2248 | 2011 | 2137 | 2180 | 2094 | | 环比 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/01 【行情分析】： 棉花：棉花库存数据下降过快，以此计算的表需较高，若这样下去，季末去库不可避免，带动近期棉价上行，不过上方仍有套保盘压制，同时 下游订单、利润和开机均较弱，对高棉价接受度也有限，建议对本轮上涨持谨慎态度。若需求进一步恶化或出现宏观风险，棉价或进一步下 行，若均没有，将持续在目前位置震荡。 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/24 2260 | 2330 | 2440 | 2460 | -59 | 0 443 | 2850 | 2950 | 168 | -63 | | 2025/06/25 2260 | 2330 | 2450 | 2460 | -47 | 0 459 | 2850 | 2950 | 113 | -63 | | 2025/06/ ...

| | | | | 铁矿石早报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 | | 2025/7/1 | | | | | 现货 | | | | 远期 | | | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | 普氏62指数 | | 94.40 | 1.10 | 0.60 | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 703 | 0 | 1 | 750.8 | 91.55 | -0.15 | 0.45 | -33.81 | | | PB粉 | 708 | 1 | 0 | 748.1 | 93.70 | -0.05 | 0.10 | -13.08 | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 691 | 1 | 0 | 755.1 | 89.65 | -0.15 | 0.50 | -9.50 | | | 金布巴 | 660 | 1 | 0 | 746.3 | 85.90 | -0.15 | 0.35 | - ...

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest data on container shipping futures, freight rate indices, and shipping capacity arrangements, as well as recent shipping - related news. It also shows the seasonal trends of various freight rate indices for different routes [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2506 closed at 1887.7 with a 0.10% increase, EC2508 at 1805.0 with a 2.56% increase, EC2510 at 1325.9 with a 0.02% increase, EC2512 at 1495.0 with a 0.40% increase, EC2602 at 1317.2 with a - 0.02% decrease, and EC2604 at 1170.6 with a 0.90% increase. The trading volumes and open interest for each contract are also provided, along with the changes in open interest [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months are presented, such as EC2506 - 2508 was 82.7, EC2508 - 2510 was 479.1, etc., and their comparisons with previous periods are given [2]. Freight Rate Indices - **SCFI 303 (Europe - America)**: Updated annually, on 2025/6/27, it was 2030 S/TEU, with a 10.63% increase from the previous period and a - 0.49% change from the period before that [2]. - **CCFI**: Updated weekly, on 2025/6/27, it was 1640.72, with a 3.94% increase from the previous period and a 6.03% increase from the period before that [2]. - **NCFI**: On 2025/6/27, it was 1442.95, with an 11.03% increase from the previous period and a - 0.64% change from the period before that [2]. - **TCI**: On 2025/6/26, it was 937.12, with a 0.00% change from the previous period and a - 2.60% change from the period before that [2]. Shipping Capacity Arrangements - In July and August 2025 (tentatively), the average weekly shipping capacities are 299,000 and 305,000 TEU respectively. The first week of July had good cargo receipts but no space shortages. The shipping capacity in the second and fourth weeks of July is neutral, while the third week is relatively high, which may suppress freight rates. In week 33, there is a new shipping service, and there are ship delays for PA&MSC [2]. European Line Quotation - Shipowners announced price increases for July. MSK opened at $3400, and others were mostly between $3500 - $4000. In the first week, some shipowners reduced prices, and MSK dropped to $3100, with the final average price at $3400 (equivalent to 2400 points on the disk). In the second week, MSK opened at $2900, and the current average quote from shipowners is $3400, equivalent to 2400 points on the disk [2]. Shipping - Related News - On 6/26, the defense minister of a certain country stated that Israel regularly takes actions to thwart relevant threats. On 6/29, the director - general of the International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran may produce enriched uranium within a few months. On 6/30, Israeli forces attacked multiple areas in Gaza, killing at least 21 Palestinians [2]. Seasonal Trends of Freight Rate Indices - **European Line**: Seasonal trends of SCFIS, SCFI, TCI, CCFI, NCFI, XSI - C, FBX11, and WCl freight rate indices are presented, covering multiple years from 2014 - 2025 [5][7][9][11]. - **Other Routes**: Seasonal trends of TCI freight rate indices for routes such as the Eastern Mediterranean, Western Mediterranean, East America, West America, South - West America, Southeast Asia (Ho Chi Minh), Persian Gulf, East Africa, and India - Pakistan are shown, with data spanning from 2015 - 2025 [13].

Price Performance - Latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 3271.75, 35.98, 1392.00, 1089.00, 65.52, and 9893.50 respectively [1] - Price changes of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, and LME Copper are -0.04, 0.00, -0.00, 0.24, and 0.02 respectively [2] Trading Data - Latest inventory of COMEX Silver is not provided,上期所白银库存 is 1295.66,黄金ETF持仓 is 954.82,白银ETF持仓 is 14866.19,上金所白银库存 is 1378.88, and the deferred fee payment directions of 上金所黄金 and 上金所白银 are both 1 [2] - Inventory changes of 上期所白银, 黄金ETF持仓 are 24.83 and 1.43 respectively, while changes of COMEX Silver, 白银ETF持仓, 上金所白银 inventory, and deferred fee payment directions are 0.00 [2] Other Data - Latest values of US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 97.26, 1.17, 1.37, 144.64, and 2.00 respectively [11] - Changes of some unspecified data are -46.95, -0.61, 84.00, 40.00, 0.28, 132.50 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For methanol, the high imports are starting to materialize, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the United States, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low prices [2]. - For plastics, the overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD is weakening. In June, the domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [7]. - For PP, the upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around -500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around -1000. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly, and the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure under the background of over - capacity [7]. - For PVC, the basis has strengthened. The downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. The mid - upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, and other factors. The PVC comprehensive profit is -500, and the static inventory is decreasing from a high level [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2735 to 2820, with a daily increase of 60 on the 27th. The import profit increased from 210 to 267, and the futures MTO profit increased from -1350 to -1176 [2]. - **Market Situation**: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has started, and the futures price is undervalued. Iran has reduced its production, non - Iranian supply has increased, and the domestic supply has also increased. The market is in a bearish factor realization period [2]. Plastics - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850 on the 27th. The import profit remained at -77, and the two - oil inventory decreased from 81 to 70 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around -400 with no further increase. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD is weakening. In June, the domestic linear production is increasing [7]. PP - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6890 to 6700, and the export profit remained at -14. The two - oil inventory decreased from 81 to 70 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around -500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around -1000, and the supply in June is expected to increase slightly [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price increased from 4850 to 4850 (with a 50 increase on the 25th). The export profit remained at 626, and the basis (high - end delivery product) increased from -90 to -80 [10][11]. - **Market Situation**: The basis has strengthened, the downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices, and the mid - upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, and other factors. The PVC comprehensive profit is -500, and the static inventory is decreasing from a high level [11].

Group 1: US Soybean and Corn Regions - Past 60 - day actual cumulative precipitation and temperature in the national产区 [2][18] - Forecasted precipitation in the national产区 [5] - Forecasted temperature in the national产区 [8] - Past 60 - day actual cumulative precipitation in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska [11] - Forecasted precipitation in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska [13] - Past 60 - day actual temperature in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska [15] - Forecasted temperature in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska [17] Group 2: Brazilian Soybean and Corn Regions - Forecasted precipitation in the national产区 of soybean and corn [21] - Forecasted temperature in the national产区 of soybean and corn [24] - Past 60 - day actual cumulative precipitation in Mato Grosso (26%), Parana (15%), Rio Grande do Sul (14%), Goias (10%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8%) [28] - Forecasted precipitation in Mato Grosso (26%), Parana (15%), Rio Grande do Sul (14%), Goias (10%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8%) [30] - Past 60 - day actual temperature in Mato Grosso (26%), Parana (15%), Rio Grande do Sul (14%), Goias (10%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8%) [33] - Forecasted temperature in Mato Grosso (26%), Parana (15%), Rio Grande do Sul (14%), Goias (10%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8%) [41] Group 3: Argentine Soybean and Corn Regions - Forecasted precipitation in the national产区 of soybean and corn [46] - Forecasted temperature in the national产区 of soybean and corn [49] - Past 60 - day actual cumulative precipitation in Buenos Aires (31%), Cordoba (28%), Santa Fe (19%), Santiago del Estero (6%), Entre Rios [53] - Forecasted precipitation in Buenos Aires (31%), Cordoba (28%), Santa Fe (19%), Santiago del Estero (6%), Entre Rios [56] - Past 60 - day actual temperature in Buenos Aires (31%), Cordoba (28%), Santa Fe (19%), Santiago del Estero (6%), Entre Rios [58] - Forecasted temperature in Buenos Aires (31%), Cordoba (28%), Santa Fe (19%), Santiago del Estero (6%), Entre Rios [60] Group 4: Canadian Rapeseed Regions - Past 60 - day actual cumulative precipitation and temperature [61] - Forecasted precipitation in the national产区 [65] - Forecasted temperature in the national产区 [70] Group 5: Other Regions' Weather - US overall weather: First - week and second - week precipitation anomalies [75] - Australian weather: First - week cumulative precipitation [76] - Australian cotton main - region reservoir storage chart [79] - Indian weather: First - week precipitation anomaly [87], actual precipitation, monsoon trend [91][92] - Southeast Asian weather [93] - Chinese weather: Maximum and minimum temperatures in the next 3 days, 3 - day and 10 - day precipitation forecasts [99][100][102]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - No clear core view presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs SP Main Contract Closing Price - On June 27, 2025, the SP main contract closing price was 5096.00, with a 0.59218% increase from the previous day. The closing prices from June 23 - 26 were 5278.00, 5136.00, 5070.00, and 5066.00 respectively, with corresponding daily changes of 3.08594%, -2.69041%, -1.28505%, and -0.07890% [3]. - The converted US - dollar prices on June 23 - 27 were 641.38, 624.56, 617.01, 616.77, and 620.42 respectively [3]. - The Shandong Yinxing basis on June 23 - 27 was 812, 914, 930, 924, and 894 respectively; the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 832, 929, 955, 944, and 914 respectively [3]. Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp, the import profit of Golden Lion (CFR) was 210.36, and that of Lion (CFR) was - 374.53. For Chilean pulp, the import profit of Yinxing (CFR, 90 - day letter of credit) was - 75.55 [4]. - The port US - dollar prices of Golden Lion, Lion, and Yinxing were 780, 730, and 740 respectively, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6600, 5610, and 5990 respectively [4]. Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From June 23 - 27, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged [4]. - For paper products, from June 24 - 27, the cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and the change values were all 0. The life - paper index changed from 839 on June 24 to 831 on June 25 and 26, then back to 839 on June 27, with a net change of 0 [4]. Profit Margin Estimation - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper on June 24 - 27 were 8.8427%, 9.2155%, 9.5184%, and 9.5184% respectively; for double - copper paper, they were 23.5841%, 23.8925%, 24.1308%, and 24.1308% respectively; for white - card paper, they were - 9.8922%, - 9.6287%, - 9.4252%, and - 9.4252% respectively; for life - paper, they were 10.3465%, 9.3041%, 9.6861%, and 9.6861% respectively [4]. Price Spreads - From June 23 - 27, the softwood - hardwood price spread was 1990, 1960, 1935, 1950, and 1950 respectively; the softwood - natural price spread was 690, 650, 600, 590, and 590 respectively; the softwood - chemimechanical price spread was 2340, 2300, 2250, 2240, and 2240 respectively; the softwood - waste paper price spread was 4514, 4474, 4424, 4414, and 4414 respectively [4].