沙河驿进口主焦 A11, V26, S0.7, G80, Y15, CSR60 普氏中挥发 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 1月 焦煤总库存 炼焦煤煤矿库存 进口炼焦煤港口库存 5500.00 550.00 550.00 500.00 500.00 5000.00 450.00 450.00 400.00 4500.00 400.00 350.00 350.00 300.00 4000.00 300.00 250.00 3500.00 250.00 200.00 200.00 150.00 3000.00 150.00 100.00 2500.00 100.00 50.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 1月 2月 4月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 =2021 === 2023 === 2023 === 2024 === 2025 =2021 == 2022 == 2023 == 2024 ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/08/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/08/11 | 3340 | 3380 | 3420 | 3330 | 3360 | 3430 | | 2025/08/12 | 3340 | 3390 | 3430 | 3340 | 3420 | 3440 | | 2025/08/13 | 3310 | 3340 | 3430 | 3280 | 3420 | 3400 | | 2025/08/14 | 3270 | 3300 | 3370 | 3260 | 3350 | 3370 | | 2025/08/15 | 3270 | 3300 | 3360 | 3260 | 3350 | 3370 | | 变化 | 0 | 0 | -10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 | 上 ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/08/18 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 西南 2025/08/115 | 2248 2070 2285 2171 ~ 2315 原点 2262 2292 2025/08/12 2255 2320 2076 2272 2182 2296 2025/08/13 2258 2324 2087 2274 2183 2174 2025/08/14 2258 2322 2085 2270 2296 2025/08/15= 容 2255 ~ 2318 原占 2082 2260 2288 2174 据 A 环比 -3 -4 -3 -10 0 -8 沙钢重三价格 (含税) 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格（不含税） ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 2024 ● 2025 ● 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 3,600元/吨 4,200元/吨 3,900 3,300 3,600 3,000 3,300 2,700 3,000 2,400 2,700 2,100 2,400 2,100 1,800 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 长流程 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current major contradiction in the EC market is the decline rate during the off - season, affected by uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment [2][17] - In terms of fundamentals, in Week 33, the collection situation of the MSK improved, OA was average, and PA was poor; in Week 34, the collection significantly declined [2][17] - EMC canceled its independent ship in Week 35, and OA added a sailing suspension in Week 39. The weekly average capacities in August, September, and October 2025 (tentatively) are still high, with a slight decline [2][17] - Currently, the October contract is at a large discount to the spot. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks is in line with market expectations. The decline of the December contract did not drive the market down further. Due to the high liquidity and the support from continuous position - shifting, but the overall future drive is downward, and there is still room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to hold the short position of the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2508: Yesterday's closing price was 2083.9, with a change of 0.04%, trading volume of 92, open interest of 2556, and a change in open interest of - 73 [2][17] - EC2510: Closing price of 1359.5, change of 1.98%, trading volume of 32077, open interest of 56698, and a change in open interest of - 4042 [2][17] - EC2512: Closing price of 1723.3, change of 1.36%, trading volume of 6322, open interest of 11131, and a change in open interest of - 334 [2][17] - EC2602: Closing price of 1521.4, change of 2.24%, trading volume of 1393, open interest of 4424, and a change in open interest of - 35 [2][17] - EC2604: Closing price of 1335.0, change of 0.48%, trading volume of 1327, open interest of 5459, and a change in open interest of - 92 [2][17] - EC2606: Closing price of 1495.0, change of 1.49%, trading volume of 107, open interest of 832, and a change in open interest of 7 [2][17] Month - to - Month Spread - EC2508 - 2510: The spread was 724.4, with a day - on - day change of - 25.5 [2][17] - EC2510 - 2512: The spread was - 363.8, with a day - on - day change of 3.2 [2][17] - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 201.9, with a day - on - day change of - 10.2 [2][17] Spot Index Information - SCHIS: Updated weekly on Mondays. On August 11, 2025, it was 2235.48 points, with a decline of 2.71% from the previous period and a decline of 0.81% in the previous period [2][17] - SCH (European line): Updated weekly on Fridays. On August 8, 2025, it was 1961 dollars/TEU, with a decline of 4.39% from the previous period and a decline of 1.87% in the previous period [2][17] - CCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays. On August 8, 2025, it was 1799.05 points, with a change of 0 - 3% from the previous period and an increase of 0.13% in the previous period [2][17] - NCFI: On August 8, 2025, it was 1257.71 points, with a decline of 8.57% from the previous period and a decline of 3.53% in the previous period [2][17] Recent European Line Quotations - Week 34: Shipping companies' prices dropped by 200 - 300 dollars, with an average of 2850 dollars (2000 points). PA Alliance was 2700 dollars, MSK was 2600 dollars, and OA Alliance was 2900 - 3000 dollars [3][18] - Week 35: The current average shipping company quotation is 2630 dollars (1800 points). MSK opened at 2200 dollars. HPL dropped 400 dollars to 2435 dollars, EMC dropped 200 dollars to 2934 dollars. On Thursday, HMM dropped 200 dollars to 2500 dollars, OOCL dropped 300 dollars to 2800 dollars, and ONE dropped 200 dollars to 2508 dollars [3][18] Related News - On August 14, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request, promising to evacuate and ensure the safety of the detained personnel [3][18] - On August 14, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Haskell said that there must be a non - Israeli, peaceful, and non - armed government in Gaza after the war [3][18] Index Release Delay - The release of the XSI - C index was delayed by three working days [4][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view presented in the given content. The report mainly shows the performance data of global asset markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 14, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies varied. For example, the US was 4.286%, the UK was 4.639%. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes also differed among countries. For instance, the US had a latest change of 0.051, a weekly change of 0.035, a monthly change of - 0.167, and an annual change of 0.393 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on August 14, 2025, were as follows: the US was 3.720, the UK was 3.904. The changes in different time - spans were also provided, such as the US having a latest change of - 0.040, a weekly change of 0.000, a monthly change of - 0.160, and an annual change not fully shown [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies on August 14, 2025, were presented, like 5.417 against the South African zar. The latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes were given, e.g., the South African zar had a latest change of - 0.14%, a weekly change of - 2.32%, a monthly change of - 4.34% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: On August 14, 2025, major economies' stock indices had different values. For example, the Dow Jones was 6468.540, the S&P 500 was 44911.260. The latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes were also provided, such as the Dow Jones having a latest change of 0.03%, a weekly change of 2.03%, a monthly change of 23.44%, and an annual change not fully shown [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The credit bond indices of different regions and types had various changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.28%, a weekly change of 0.05%, a monthly change of 1.74%, and an annual change of 4.89% [4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were presented. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3666.44 with a - 0.46% change [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were given. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.42 with a 0.00环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 interest rate) and their环比 changes of some indices were provided, such as the S&P 500 having a risk premium of - 0.64 with a - 0.05环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were shown. For example, the latest fund flow of A - shares was - 1980.11 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext were presented. For example, the latest trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 22792.09 with a 1282.72环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis and percentage of premium/discount of IF, IH, and IC were given. For example, the basis of IF was - 9.51 with a - 0.23% magnitude [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of Treasury futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were presented. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.325 with a 0.01% change [6]. - The money market's capital interest rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes (BP) were provided. For example, R001 was 1.3518% with a - 12.00 BP daily change [6].

Report Overview - The report is a steel morning report released by the Black Team of the Research Center on August 15, 2025, covering aspects such as spot prices, price and profit, production and inventory, basis and spreads [1] Spot Prices Rebar - Spot prices of rebar in different regions (Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, Wuhan) showed varying degrees of decline from August 8 to August 14, with decreases ranging from 20 to 70 yuan [1] Hot - Rolled Coils - For hot - rolled coils in Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong, the price changes were relatively small, with 0 yuan in Tianjin, - 20 yuan in Shanghai, and - 10 yuan in Lecong from August 8 to August 14 [1] Cold - Rolled Coils - Cold - rolled coils in Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong also had price fluctuations, with a decrease of 70 yuan in Tianjin, 0 yuan in Shanghai, and - 30 yuan in Lecong from August 8 to August 14 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, the absolute price of crude oil dropped to $65 per barrel for Brent. The monthly spreads of crude oil in the three markets slightly declined. Geopolitical uncertainties resurfaced due to the possible misunderstanding of Russia's cease - fire requirements by the US envoy and Iran's actions. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week, with a slight reduction in US commercial crude oil and refined products inventories. After the crude oil price decline, global refinery profits rebounded. The near - term crude oil fundamentals are volatile. Supply faces a decline risk due to sanctions on Iran and Russia, OPEC+ oil exports are expected to accelerate, and refinery operations in the third quarter are expected to be stronger than anticipated, supporting the monthly spread. However, the peak of the global supply - demand fundamentals has passed, and the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with a forecasted decline to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy and the non - OPEC production start - up rhythm [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From August 8 to August 14, 2025, WTI crude oil price increased by $1.31, BRENT by $1.21, and DUBAI by $0.76. Other related prices such as NYMEX RB, domestic gasoline, and domestic diesel also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - The "Putin - Trump meeting" is set to be held at an Alaska US military base, with no plan to sign a results document. The US Treasury issued a waiver for the meeting. The uncertainty of the US - Russia peace negotiation increases the bullish risk premium for oil prices. Indian state - owned refineries are inquiring about purchasing Russian oil as the discount improves. Despite increased drone attacks on Russian refineries, Russia's oil product exports increased in early August, with fuel oil shipments reaching the highest level since the conflict began, offsetting the decline in diesel shipments [4][5]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - The EIA report shows that in the week of August 8, US crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 3.577 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.036 million barrels to 427 million barrels (a 0.72% increase), and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels (a 0.06% increase). From July 25 - 31, the operating rate of major refineries in China slightly increased, and that of Shandong local refineries remained basically flat. China's refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with corresponding changes in inventories and profits [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: This week, it fluctuated with coal. Its fundamental situation changed little, still in the process of inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Polyethylene (PE): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream producers are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. In August, the number of maintenance projects decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5]. - Polypropylene (PP): The upstream inventory of major producers is increasing, while the middle - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 200. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June. If exports continue to grow or PDH device maintenance increases, the supply pressure can be alleviated [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and costs are stabilizing [5]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0,江苏现货decreased by 25,华南现货decreased by 23, etc. [2] - **Market Situation**: It follows coal price fluctuations, with little change in its own fundamentals, still in inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation, and short - term oscillation is expected [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,东北亚乙烯increased by 5,华北LL decreased by 25, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, the basis in North China is around - 150 and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. The number of maintenance projects decreased in August, and domestic linear production increased [5]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,山东丙烯decreased by 50,华东PP decreased by 20, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: Upstream inventory is increasing, mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good. The PDH profit is around - 200, and supply is expected to increase slightly in June [5]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,西北电石decreased by 50,山东烧碱increased by 10,电石法 - 华东decreased by 40 [5]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Content Summaries by Relevant Aspects SP Main Contract Price - The closing price of the SP main contract on August 14, 2025, was 5318.00, with a daily increase of 0.30177%. The closing prices on previous days were 5302.00 (Aug 13), 5264.00 (Aug 12), 5246.00 (Aug 11), and 5162.00 (Aug 08) [3]. - The converted US - dollar prices on these days were 647.46 (Aug 14), 645.26 (Aug 13), 639.19 (Aug 12), 637.80 (Aug 11), and 627.38 (Aug 08) [3]. - The basis for Shandong Yinxing on these days were 542 (Aug 14), 558 (Aug 13), 586 (Aug 12), 604 (Aug 11), and 673 (Aug 08), and for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing were 582 (Aug 14), 598 (Aug 13), 636 (Aug 12), 654 (Aug 11), and 738 (Aug 08) [3]. Pulp Import Price and Profit - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp, the CFR price of Golden Lion was 780 US dollars, with an import profit of 60.36 yuan in Shandong; the CFR price of Lion was 730 US dollars, with an import loss of 359.53 yuan in Shandong. For Chilean pulp, the CFR price of Yinxing (90 - day letter of credit) was 720 US dollars, with an import loss of 43.51 yuan in Shandong [4]. Pulp and Paper Product Prices and Margins - From August 8 to August 14, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged, as did the average prices in Shandong [4]. - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset, double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper remained unchanged from August 11 to August 14, 2025 [4]. - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper decreased from 6.3015% on August 11 to 4.8347% on August 14; double - copper paper decreased from 24.1238% to 22.6500%; white card paper remained at a loss of around - 12%; and living paper decreased from 7.7189% to 6.7640% [4]. Pulp Price Spreads - From August 8 to August 14, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp decreased from 1700 to 1660; between softwood and natural pulp increased from 435 to 460; between softwood and chemimechanical pulp increased from 2010 to 2035; and between softwood pulp and waste paper increased from 4259 to 4284 [4].