02后面主要看现货走势, 1月运价见顶高度与时间、 后续跌价等节奏很难预估，当前点位下不建议入场。 _ 地缘反转、节前减仓、跌无可跌后的涨价函），思路以连高空为主。 04估值中性偏高，但短期存在上行风险（资金移仓、 远月受地缘影响大；在复航预期、淡季的长期逻辑下，10逢高空思路为主。 ગઢ 美容量版 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | हिंदी को प्रति | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2512 | | 1604.8 | -0.51% | 137.8 | 151 | | 1695 | | | | EC2602 | | 1822.9 | -0.09% | -80.3 | 24389 | | 30437 | 20 -1412 | | | EC2604 | | 1169.9 | 1.31% | 572.7 | 6762 | | 21197 | -26 ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/30 SP主力合约收盘价： 5510.00 | 日期 | 2025/12/29 | 2025/12/26 | 2025/12/25 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5510.00 | 5630.00 | 5604.00 | 5620.00 | 5620.00 | | 折美元价 | 686.78 | 702.06 | 698.96 | 700.03 | 698.78 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -2.13144% | 0.46395% | -0.28470% | 0.00000% | -0.03557% | | 山东银星基差 | 80 | -40 | -14 | -30 | -30 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 50 | -70 | -44 | -55 | -55 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Price Performance - Latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 4337.05, 74.64, 2208.00, 1837.00, 58.08, and 12553.00 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 1.34, and 420.00 [1] - Latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 98.00, 1.18, 1.35, 156.03, and 1.91 respectively, with changes of - 0.04, 0.00, 0.00, - 0.53, and 0.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - Latest COMEX silver inventory is 13969.43, with a change of - 18.67;上期所白银库存 is 796.74, with a change of - 22.69; gold ETF持仓 is 1071.99, with a change of 0.86; silver ETF持仓 is 16305.96, with a change of - 84.60;上金所白银库存 is 714.41, with a change of 0.00;上金所黄金递延费支付方向 is 1;上金所白银递延费支付方向 is 2 [1] Group 3: Data Source - The data in the above charts are from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [4]

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਉਲੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 環 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓星 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1604.8 | -0.51% | 137.8 | 151 | | 1695 | | | | EC2602 | | 1822.9 | -0.09% | -80.3 | 24389 | | 30437 | 20 -1412 | | | EC2604 | | 1169.9 | 1 31% | 5/2.7 | 6/62 | | 21197 | -265 | | | EC2606 | | 1374.0 | 4.39% | 368.6 | 984 | | 2350 | 110 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1497.7 | 0.7/8% | 244.9 | 110 | | 1206 | 14 | | | EC2610 | | 1054.7 | 0.51% | ...

玻璃现货：沙河工厂产销较高，沙河贸易商低价950左右，出货一般，期现出货差；湖北省内工厂970左右，成交尚可；湖北中游期现01平水， 成交差 玻璃产销：沙河143，湖北98，华东106，华南108 2025/12/22 2025/12/26 2025/12/29 周度变化 日度变化 2025/12/22 2025/12/26 2025/12/29 周度变化 日度变化 沙河重碱 1130.0 1140.0 1130.0 0.0 -10.0 SA05合 约 1169.0 1200.0 1181.0 12.0 -19.0 华中重碱 1120.0 1120.0 1110.0 -10.0 -10.0 SA01合约 1109.0 1121.0 1107.0 -2.0 -14.0 华南重碱 1350.0 1350.0 1350.0 0.0 0.0 SA09合约 1223.0 1258.0 1247.0 24.0 -11.0 青 海 重 碱 830.0 830.0 830.0 0.0 0.0 SA01沙河基 差 21.0 19.0 23.0 2.0 4.0 华北轻碱 1130.0 1130.0 1130.0 0.0 0.0 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For PTA, the near - term TA partial device has a short - stop, the polyester load drops, the inventory continues to decline, and the basis is stable with the spot processing fee significantly repaired. The PX price has strengthened significantly, but the short - term upward space may be limited, and it is necessary to wait for downstream price pass - through [1]. - For MEG, the domestic supply is stable with a slight increase, overseas maintenance increases, the overall inventory accumulation continues, and the pattern is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, although the domestic demand is gradually entering the off - season, the spot profit has been significantly compressed, and the further weakening space is limited. Attention should be paid to the warrant situation [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai stage price is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Product Categories PTA - Price and Spread: The average daily trading basis of PTA is 2605(-58). The PX - naphtha spread has strengthened significantly, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits have both increased to a relatively high level, while the US - Asian aromatics spread has shrunk [1]. - Device Changes: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device increased its load, and Dushan's 2.5 million - ton device restarted. Near - end TA partial devices had short - stops, and the start - up rate decreased slightly [1]. - Market Outlook: The downstream filament profit has dropped significantly, and the possibility of accelerated production cuts has increased. Although the long - term pattern has not completely reversed, the probability of falling short of expectations has increased [1]. MEG - Price and Spread: The basis for MEG is around - 140 for the 05 contract. The domestic device load has increased, and overseas maintenance plans have increased [1]. - Device Changes: Zheng Dakai's 600,000 - ton device restarted, and Zhongkun's 600,000 - ton device increased its load [1]. - Market Outlook: The domestic supply is increasing steadily, overseas maintenance is increasing month - on - month, and the overall inventory accumulation continues. The pattern is expected to be weak under new production [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Spread: The spot price is around 6580, and the market basis is around - 100 for the 02 contract [1]. - Device Changes: Sanfangxiang increased its load, and the start - up rate slightly increased to 96.2%. The production and sales improved month - on - month, and the inventory slightly accumulated [1]. - Market Outlook: Although the domestic demand is entering the off - season, the spot profit has been significantly compressed, and the further weakening space is limited due to the relatively low absolute inventory [1]. Natural Rubber - Price and Spread: The prices of various types of natural rubber have changed to different degrees. The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai stage price is stable due to rainfall [1]. - Strategy: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [1]. Styrene and Related Products - Price and Spread: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related products have changed. The production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS have also changed [1]. - Device Changes: No significant device change information is provided [1]. - Market Outlook: No specific market outlook information for styrene and related products is provided [1].

部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任 LPG = FA 81+ 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/30 LR GEBE 内院CFR华 CP预测合 山东烷基 纸面进口利润 日期 华南液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CIF日本 山东醚后碳四 主力基差 华东液化气 同价 化油 南 2025/12/23 4377 4475 4370 590 550 4580 7180 -291 507 444 2025/12/24 4392 4320 4570 4480 590 543 510 7180 -277 398 2025/12/25 4505 4389 4310 4520 7150 590 539 510 -245 413 2025/12/26 4384 -233 4510 4270 289 541 512 4500 7150 390 4320 4430 434 2025/12/29 4510 4380 580 533 508 7130 -163 0 14 -4 日度 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Morning Report - Report Date: December 30, 2025 [1] Price Information Ferrosilicon - Latest prices of natural lump ferrosilicon in different regions: Ningxia 72 at 5250, Inner Mongolia 72 at 5270, Qinghai 72 at 5250, Shaanxi 72 at 5220, Shaanxi 75 at 5650 [2] - Latest prices of qualified lump ferrosilicon: Jiangsu 72 at 5700, Tianjin 72 at 5750 [2] - Export prices of ferrosilicon in Tianjin: 72 at 1020 (USD), 75 at 1070 (USD) [2] - Changes in ferrosilicon prices: Some prices have weekly changes, e.g., Ningxia 72 up 30, Inner Mongolia 72 up 20 [2] - Basis, spreads, and price differences: Such as the main - month basis at - 126, 1 - 5 month spread at - 98, etc. [2] Silicomanganese - Latest factory - ex prices in different regions: Inner Mongolia 6517 at 5590, Ningxia 6517 at 5520, Guangxi 6517 at 5700, etc. [2] - Latest trader prices: Ningxia 6517 at 5520, Jiangsu 6517 at 5750 [2] - Changes in silicomanganese prices: Some prices have weekly changes, e.g., Inner Mongolia 6517 up 40, Ningxia 6517 down 20 [2] - Basis, spreads, and price differences: Such as the main - month basis at 28, 1 - 5 month spread at - 68, etc. [2] Supply - related Information Ferrosilicon - Production volume and capacity utilization data are presented in long - term trends, including 136 - company monthly production, weekly production of 136 companies (95% capacity), and monthly capacity utilization in different regions [4] Silicomanganese - Weekly production volume data and long - term trends are shown [6] Demand - related Information Ferrosilicon - Data on export prices, import prices, and related demand - side indicators such as steel production forecasts and metal magnesium production are presented in long - term trends [3][4] Silicomanganese - Data on demand in China (in million tons) and related demand - side indicators like steel production forecasts are presented in long - term trends [4][7] Inventory - related Information Ferrosilicon - Inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions, as well as warehouse receipt and effective forecast data, are presented in long - term trends [5] Silicomanganese - Warehouse receipt, effective forecast, and inventory data, as well as inventory average available days in China, are presented in long - term trends [7] Cost - profit - related Information Ferrosilicon - Data on electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials like semi - coke, semi - coke production profit, and ferrosilicon production cost and profit in different regions are presented in long - term trends [5] Silicomanganese - Data on raw material prices such as chemical coke and manganese ore, and silicomanganese production profit in different regions are presented in long - term trends [6][7]

2025/12/30 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1485.59 | 0.00 | -54.61 | -163.84 | -13.49% 高炉开工率 | 84.94 | | 0.01 | -3.04 | -1.38% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1735.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -165.00 | 4.52% 铁水日均产量 | 226.58 | | 0.03 | -8.10 | -0.57% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1660.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -165.00 | -12.63% 盘面05 | 1707.5 | 0.00 | -35.00 | -18.50 | -4.31% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1700.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -165.00 | -12.37% 盘面09 | 1785 | 2.00 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/30 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/23 -440 4777 95805 49543 -1909.24 -498.41 55.0 54.0 13.16 158575 48875 2025/12/24 -465 5208 95805 52222 -2003.83 -422.80 55.0 54.0 19.69 157025 46525 2025/12/25 -500 5373 95805 59083 - 422.09 55.0 54.0 - - - 2025/12/26 -525 6208 111703 58647 - 2945.00 55.0 54.0 - - - 2025/12/29 -435 6790 111703 65878 -1855.70 -146.77 53.0 52.0 31.35 154575 44075 变化 90 582 0 7231 - -3091.77 -2.0 ...