废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/27 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/20 | 2185 | 2264 | 2054 | 2250 | 2217 | 2109 | | 2026/01/21 | 2185 | 2265 | 2052 | 2248 | 2217 | 2109 | | 2026/01/22 | 2184 | 2266 | 2052 | 2248 | 2217 | 2109 | | 2026/01/23 | 2185 | 2266 | 2052 | 2248 | 2218 | 2109 | | 2026/01/26 | 2189 | 2271 | 2057 | 2250 | 2218 | 2109 | | 环比 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Category Spot Market - Newman powder: price 788, daily change -10, weekly change -6, discounted to the underlying 843.3, import profit 15.97 [1] - PB powder: price 793, daily change -9, weekly change -11, discounted to the underlying 844.5 [1] - Macfarlane powder: price 789, daily change -11, weekly change -8, discounted to the underlying 861.7, import profit 39.45 [1] - Jinbuba: price 746, daily change -9, weekly change -11, discounted to the underlying 838.8, import profit 50.45 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder: price 725, daily change -5, weekly change -18, discounted to the underlying 862.8, import profit 1.52 [1] - Super special powder: price 670, daily change -8, weekly change -7, discounted to the underlying 889.8, import profit -0.49 [1] - Carajás powder: price 878, daily change -9, weekly change -1, discounted to the underlying 811.5, import profit -14.89 [1] - Brazilian blend: price 824, daily change -9, weekly change -11, discounted to the underlying 830.9, import profit 8.05 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6: price 757, daily change -9, weekly change -11, discounted to the underlying 830.4 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG: price 762, daily change -9, weekly change -11 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate: price 872, daily change -6, weekly change -7, discounted to the underlying 974.6 [1] - 61% Indian powder: price 735, daily change -9, weekly change -11 [1] - Karara concentrate: price 876, daily change -6, weekly change -7, discounted to the underlying 896.2 [1] - Roy Hill powder: price 780, daily change -9, weekly change -11, discounted to the underlying 858.5, import profit 59.15 [1] - KUMBA powder: price 852, daily change -9, weekly change -11, discounted to the underlying 831.5 [1] - 57% Indian powder: price 605, daily change -8, weekly change -7 [1] - Atlas powder: price 720, daily change -5, weekly change -18 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate: price 982, daily change 0, weekly change 11, discounted to the underlying 869.0 [1] Futures Market - DCE i2701: price 755.0, daily change -9.5, weekly change -7.5, monthly spread 11.0, spread change 56.5, daily spread change -0.2, weekly spread change 6.4 [1] - DCE i2605: price 784.5, daily change -10.5, weekly change -9.5, monthly spread -29.5, spread change 27.0, daily spread change 0.8, weekly spread change 8.4 [1] - DCE i2609: price 766.0, daily change -11.5, weekly change -10.5, monthly spread 18.5, spread change 45.5, daily spread change 1.8, weekly spread change 9.4 [1] - SGX FE01: price 105.87, daily change 0.22, weekly change -1.05, spread -2.59, spread change -69.8, daily spread change 4.6, weekly spread change -34.5 [1] - SGX FE05: price 104.61, daily change 0.95, weekly change -1.42, spread 1.26, spread change -29.3, daily spread change -0.1, weekly spread change -6.6 [1] - SGX FE09: price 103.28, daily change 1.01, weekly change -1.47, spread 1.33, spread change -36.4, daily spread change -1.1, weekly spread change -5.2 [1]

-100 -200 -300 -400 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 基差: 混合 - RU主力 ● 2013 ● 2014 ● 2015 ● 2016 ● 2017 据思想出 元 - 2020 · 2021 · 2022 1,000 _ ● 2018 ● 2019 ● 2020 600 = 2023 · 2024 · 2025 · · 2026 2025 - 2026 400 0 200 -1,000 0 -2,000 -200 -3,000 -400 -600 -4,000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 月差:RU:05-09 价差: NR主力 - 美金泰标 唱片受剧 ↓ 2021 ↓ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 ● 2019 ● 2020 ● 2021 ● 2022 ● 2023 ● 900 ● 2024 ● 2025 ● 2026 500 - � 2026 400 600 300 200 | 0 -300 -600 - ...

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/27 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2026/01/20 | 344.17 | 387.29 | -9.82 | 645.50 | -258.21 | 23.87 | 43.12 | | 2026/01/21 | 344.11 | 388.88 | -10.06 | 661.40 | -272.52 | 25.43 | 44.77 | | 2026/01/22 | 344.93 | 386.08 | -9.26 | 648.45 | -262.37 | 25.00 | 41.15 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush shipping. Before the Spring Festival, the falling spot prices suppress the futures market, and shorting on rallies is relatively safe. However, as freight rates decline, shipping companies may announce price increases to stabilize prices, which may also trigger a wave of shipping after the Spring Festival, potentially weakening the downward slope of prices in March. Currently, the valuation of EC2604 is moderately high, and shorting opportunities on rallies can be considered, while geopolitical fluctuations need to be noted. [3] - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for the far - month contracts, but the far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical fluctuations. It is recommended to operate with caution and mainly adopt a positive spread trading strategy. Currently, the valuation of EC2610 is high, and shorting opportunities for EC2610 on rallies can be considered. [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1726.7, up 0.52%, with a basis of 227.5, trading volume of 565, and open interest of 4225, a decrease of 176. [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1200.2, up 5.44%, with a basis of 754.0, trading volume of 43172, and open interest of 41690, an increase of 541. [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1447.6, up 2.46%, with a basis of 506.6, trading volume of 4483, and open interest of 7324, an increase of 1333. [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1524.0, up 1.91%, with a basis of 430.2, trading volume of 614, and open interest of 1515, an increase of 172. [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1114.2, up 1.94%, with a basis of 840.0, trading volume of 2148, and open interest of 8565, an increase of 195. [2] Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 526.5, with a day - on - day decrease of 52.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 70.9. [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's value was - 247.4, with a day - on - day increase of 27.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 42.6. [2] Spot Index Data - SCFIS (European line): Updated weekly on Monday, as of January 19, 2026, it was 1954.19 points, down 0.11% from the previous period, and up 8.94% from the period before the previous one. [2] - SCFI (European line): Updated weekly, as of January 23, 2026, it was 1595 US dollars/TEU, down 4.83% from the previous period and down 2.50% from the period before the previous one. [2] European Line Spot Freight Situation - Week 5: MSK's opening price was 2450 (a decrease of 300 compared to the previous period), PA was 2400 (special price 2200), and OA was 2500 - 2700 US dollars. The central price was 2500 US dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures market. [4] - Week 6: MSK's opening price was 2050 (a decrease of 400 compared to the previous period), PA was around 2200, MSC was 2340, and OA was 2400 - 2500 US dollars. The central price was 2320 US dollars, equivalent to 1625 points on the futures market. [4] Group 4: News and Geopolitical Information - On January 27, a US official said that US President Trump fully agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's statement that the reconstruction of Gaza would not start until Hamas was demilitarized and disarmed. [4] - On January 27, US President Trump said that the situation in Iran was "changing rapidly" as he sent a "huge fleet" to the region, but he thought Iran really wanted to reach an agreement. [4] - On January 27, Lebanon's Hezbollah said it would not stand by in the face of military action against Iran. Iran warned the US that if it launched a military strike, it would attack US aircraft carriers. [4] - On January 26, the Israeli Civil Aviation Authority said that this weekend was a sensitive period. On January 25, it notified several foreign airlines that Israel might enter a "sensitive period" around January 30. It emphasized that if the safety assessment showed that a reasonable safety level could not be ensured, Israel would immediately close its airspace and prioritize the departure of foreign flights. [4] - On January 26, an unnamed US official said that the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group had entered the US Central Command's area of responsibility in the western Indian Ocean. If the White House ordered an attack on Iran, the carrier strike group could launch a military operation "within one or two days" in theory. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending January 22, 2026, was 1,324,408 tons, meeting market expectations, with 67.76% shipped to China. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop - year is 20,668,363 tons, lower than the same period last year [1]. - Brazil exported 1,521,682.57 tons of soybeans in the first four weeks of January 2026, with a 96% increase in the daily average export volume compared to January last year. Multiple institutions have raised Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast, but the high - temperature and dry weather in Rio Grande do Sul needs attention [1]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area is estimated at 17.4 million hectares, a 3.3% decrease from the previous year [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1 - 25, 2026, increased compared to the same period last month, while the production from January 1 - 20 and January 1 - 25 decreased compared to the previous month [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending January 22, 2026, was 1,324,408 tons, within the market forecast range of 900,000 - 1,550,000 tons. The volume to China was 897,459 tons, accounting for 67.76% of the total. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop - year is 20,668,363 tons, compared to 33,052,451 tons in the same period last year [1]. - Brazil exported 1,521,682.57 tons of soybeans in the first four weeks of January 2026, with a daily average of 95,105.16 tons, a 96% increase from January last year's daily average of 48,598.48 tons [1]. - AgRural raised Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 181 million tons from 180.4 million tons, with 4.9% of the harvest completed, higher than the previous week and the same period last year [1]. - Hedgepoint Global Markets raised Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 179.5 million tons from 178 million tons due to favorable weather conditions [1]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area is estimated at 17.4 million hectares, a 3.3% decrease from the previous year [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1 - 25, 2026, increased by 9.97% (ITS data) and 7.97% (AmSpec data) compared to the same period last month. The production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43% (MPOA data), and from January 1 - 25 decreased by 14.81% (SPPOMA data) [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 20 - 26, 2026, are presented in a table [5]. Other Sections - There are also sections about "Oil Basis", "Oil and Oilseed Futures Spread", "Oil Import Profit", and "Protein Meal Basis", but no specific content is provided in the given text [8][10][12]

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10-year government bonds in major economies: US 4.226%, UK 4.511%, France 3.493%, Germany 2.905%, Italy 3.512%, Spain 3.270%, Switzerland 0.278%, Greece 3.506%, Japan 2.248%, Brazil 6.208%, China 1.825%, South Korea 3.603%, Australia 4.818%, New Zealand 4.589% [3] - The latest yields of 2-year government bonds in major economies: US 3.595%, UK 3.722%, Germany 2.127%, Japan 1.240%, Italy 2.205%, China (1Y yield) 1.273%, South Korea 2.924%, Australia 4.183% [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.286, South Africa (zar) 16.127, South Korean won 1464.000, Thai baht 31.195, Malaysian ringgit 4.007 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.963, off - shore RMB 6.949, RMB central parity rate 6.993, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.817 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6915.610, Dow Jones Industrial Average 49098.710, Nasdaq 23501.240, Mexican stock index 68195.150, UK stock index 10143.440, France CAC 8143.050, Germany DAX 24900.710, Spanish stock index 17544.400, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 53846.870, Hang Seng Index 26749.510, Shanghai Composite Index 4136.164, Taiwan stock index 31961.510, South Korean stock index 4990.070, Indian stock index 8951.010, Thai stock index 1314.390, Malaysian stock index 1719.990, Australian stock index 9189.871, emerging - economy stock index 1501.110 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3555.310, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 266.753, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.590, US high - yield credit - bond index 2933.910, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 412.990, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1838.807 [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4136.16 (up 0.33%), CSI 300 closing price 4702.50 (down 0.45%), SSE 50 closing price 3032.19 (down 0.69%), ChiNext closing price 3349.50 (up 0.63%), CSI 500 closing price 8590.17 (up 2.42%) [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 14.08 (down 0.09%), SSE 50 11.49 (down 0.11%), CSI 500 38.90 (up 0.83%), S&P 500 27.62 (up 0.01%), Germany DAX 19.32 (up 0.03%) [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 - 0.61 (up 0.01%), Germany DAX 2.27 (down 0.03%) [4] - Fund flow: A - share latest value - 58.18, main - board latest value - 331.92, ChiNext latest value 183.94, CSI 300 latest value - 814.22, A - share 5 - day average - 466.98, main - board 5 - day average - 321.96, ChiNext 5 - day average - 123.99, CSI 300 5 - day average - 457.40 [4] - Transaction amount: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 30852.24 (up 3934.91), CSI 300 latest value 7556.18 (up 653.83), SSE 50 latest value 2004.56 (up 70.45), small - and medium - sized board latest value 6259.27 (up 921.92), ChiNext latest value 8169.10 (up 1353.75) [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF basis 6.70 (0.14%), IH basis 5.61 (0.18%), IC basis 68.03 (0.79%) [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures closing prices: T2303 108.20 (up 0.04%), TF2303 105.88 (up 0.04%), T2306 108.19 (up 0.06%), TF2306 105.90 (up 0.05%) [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.4654% (down 8.00BP), R007 1.5360% (down 1.00BP), SHIBOR - 3M 1.5980% (unchanged) [5]

Week5: MSK开舱2450 (环比-300) , PA2400 (特价2200) , OA2500-2700美金。中枢2500美金, 折盘1750点, 消息面 Week6: MSK开舱2050 (环比-400) , PA2200附近, MSC2340, OA2400-2500美金, 中枢2320美金, 折盘1625点, | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/1/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持色变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1717.7 | 0.59% | 236.5 | 532 | | 4401 | -280 | | | EC2604 | | 1138.3 | 0.05% | 815.9 | 30781 | | 41149 | 379 | | | EC2606 | | 1412.9 | 0.99% | 541.3 | 4476 | | 5791 | 908 | | | ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/26 SP主力合约收盘价： 5398.00 | 日期 | 2026/01/23 | 2026/01/22 | 2026/01/21 | 2026/01/20 | 2026/01/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5398.00 | 5380.00 | 5360.00 | 5376.00 | 5362.00 | | 折美元价 | 677.04 | 674.89 | 672.13 | 674.62 | 672.52 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 0.33457% | 0.37313% | -0.29762% | 0.26110% | 0.00000% | | 山东银星基差 | 12 | 30 | 50 | 34 | 48 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 12 | 30 | 50 | 34 | 48 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from January 19 to January 23, 2026, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong for hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils. For example, the price of Beijing rebar was 3130 on January 19 and remained the same on January 20, then dropped to 3110 on January 21 and stayed at that level until January 22. The price changes of hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils are also detailed, such as the Shanghai hot-rolled coil price increasing from 3260 on January 19 to 3310 on January 23 [1] Output and Inventory - No information provided Basis and Spread - No information provided