油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/24 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 2月12日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增86.42万吨一如预期 USDA出口销售报告显示，2月12日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增79.82万吨，较之前一周增加183%， 较前四周均值减少20%，市场此前预估为净增37.5万吨至净增120.0万吨。 当周，美国大豆出口装船为129.06万吨，较之前一周增加14%，较此前四周均值增加1%。 当周，美国当前市场年度大豆新销售81.12万吨。下一市场年度大豆新销售6.60万吨。 2月12日止当周美国豆粕出口销售合计净增48.09万吨高于预期 USDA出口销售报告显示，2月12日止当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕出口销售净增48.09万吨，较之前一周增加35%， 较前四周均值增加20%，市场此前预估为净增22.0万吨至净增45.0万吨。 当周，美国豆粕出口装船为40.76万吨，较之前一周增加25%，较此前四周均值增加13%。 当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕新销售51.10万吨。下一市场年度豆粕新销售0万吨。 AgRural：巴西大豆收割进度为2020/21年度以来最慢 农业咨询机构Ag ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, due to the continued fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance, with some plants like Xingxing and Shenghong having shutdown plans. It's difficult for methanol prices to go up or down as MTO profit caps the upside. A bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. - For plastics, the market is oscillating, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply growth is expected to be neutral, while the LL supply - demand balance sheet still faces pressure [2]. - For PP, the market is stable, with a weak basis. Supply - side temporary maintenance plans are increasing. PP inventory is currently neutral, and the 05 and subsequent supply - demand balance is expected to be slightly on the high side, requiring PDH maintenance or continued exports to improve [3]. - For PVC, the basis improves slightly. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short term, the seasonal start - up recovers. In the long - term, the domestic and foreign real - estate new - construction demand is still weak, and the PVC outlook is poor [5]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of various regions' methanol had different changes, such as the Jiangsu spot price dropping from 2208 to 2213, and the Northwest discounted price rising from 2405 to 2438. The import profit,主力基差, and 盘面MTO利润 also changed accordingly [2]. - **Market Situation**: The Iran conflict continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance, and some plants have shutdown or production - reduction plans. It's difficult for methanol prices to move up or down, and a bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. Plastics - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 690. The prices of various plastic products in different regions changed, such as the North China LL price dropping from 6630 to 6540. The import profit,主力期货 price, and basis also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Market Situation**: The market oscillates, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The oil - based and coal - based profits turn worse. The upstream coal - chemical industry and two - oil companies are destocking, while the social inventory accumulates this week. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply growth is expected to be neutral, with the LL supply - demand balance sheet still under pressure [2]. PP - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6400, and the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 785. The prices of various PP products in different regions changed, such as the East China PP price dropping from 6490 to 6540. The export profit,主力期货 price, and basis also had corresponding changes [3]. - **Market Situation**: The market is stable, with a weak basis. The import and export profits are negative, and the export volume decreases slightly. The upstream oil - based profit is stable, and the PDH comprehensive profit improves. The downstream BOPP and plastic - weaving profits improve. The supply - side temporary maintenance plans increase, and the overall PP inventory is neutral. The 05 and subsequent supply - demand balance is expected to be slightly on the high side [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2550, and the Shandong caustic soda price changed from 622 to 622. The prices of various PVC products in different regions changed, such as the calcium - carbide - based East China price dropping from 4810 to 4780. The export profit and basis also had corresponding changes [4][5]. - **Market Situation**: The basis improves slightly. The ethylene - based FOB and calcium - carbide - based FOB prices need further observation. The coal and semi - coke prices are stable, and the semi - coke and calcium carbide profits are poor. The upstream starts up at a rate of 79.7%, and the downstream demand is stable. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short term, the seasonal start - up recovers, and in the long - term, the real - estate new - construction demand is still weak [5].

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on February 12, 2026, was 5238.00 [2] - The closing prices of the main contract from February 6 to February 12, 2026, were 5234.00, 5200.00, 5202.00, 5236.00, and 5238.00 respectively [2] - The corresponding discount US - dollar prices were 658.48, 655.25, 656.97, 661.46, and 662.67 respectively [2] - The daily price changes were - 0.38066%, - 0.64960%, 0.03846%, 0.65359%, and 0.03820% respectively [2] - The Shandong Yinxing basis from February 6 to February 12, 2026, was 76, 110, 108, 74, and 72 respectively [2] - The Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis from February 6 to February 12, 2026, was 106, 140, 138, 74, and 72 respectively [2] Group 2: Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp: the port US - dollar price of Golden Lion (CFR) was 780, the Shandong region RMB price was 6300, and the import profit was 148.34; the port US - dollar price of Lion (CFR) was 730, the Shandong region RMB price was 5270, and the import profit was - 491.81 [3] - For Chilean pulp, the port US - dollar price of Yinxing (CFR, 90 - day letter of credit) was 700, the Shandong region RMB price was 5310, and the import profit was - 217.90 [3] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price and Margin Information - From February 6 to February 12, 2026, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively; the Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [3] - From February 9 to February 12, 2026, the indices of cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and tissue paper remained unchanged at 5725, 5670, 4350, and 867 respectively [3] - From February 9 to February 12, 2026, the estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white card paper, and tissue paper remained unchanged at - 2.1797%, 7.9583%, - 7.7945%, and 8.5041% respectively [3] - From February 6 to February 12, 2026, the price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper remained unchanged at 755.00, - 90, 1435, and 3734 respectively [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Basis and Calendar Spread - The daily changes in Shandong basis (+80, non - Jingbo), East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse), and South China basis (Foshan warehouse) are all 30. The daily changes in 03 - 06, 04 - 06, and 06 - 09 are -9, -8, and -5 respectively [2][3]. 3.2 Futures Contract Data - The BU main contract price is 3343, with a daily change of -30. The trading volume is 271643, with a daily change of 37601 and a weekly change of -5. The open interest is 347769, with a daily change of -17689 and a weekly change of -4 [2][3]. 3.3 Spot Price - The prices of Jingbo, Shandong (non - Jingbo), Zhenjiang warehouse, and Foshan warehouse remain unchanged at 3200, 3200, 3330, and 3280 respectively [2][3]. 3.4 Profit - The asphalt - Marey profit is 250, with a daily change of -19 [2][3]. 3.5 Total Inventory - No specific data analysis is provided, but the total inventory (Longzhong) is mentioned in the report [7].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high, and it is significantly affected by pre - holiday funds. After the holiday, it will fluctuate widely under the influence of price - increase announcements, rush - shipping expectations, and off - season expectations [3][27] - For far - month contracts, it is difficult to determine the valuation of peak - season contracts, and shipping companies have a large margin for price adjustment. It is recommended to operate cautiously. The 10 contract is moderately high, and the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained [3][27] - For new contracts, referring to historical seasonality and the valuation of old contracts, the reasonable valuation ranges of the 09 and 07 contracts are 1100 - 1300 and 1600 - 1800 points respectively. The subsequent strategy is mainly shorting the 09 contract and buying the 07 contract, but the valuation given by the market is already relatively reasonable. The 05 contract is at the off - season switching point, and attention should be paid to the 4 - 5 reverse spread form [3][27] - Due to frequent pre - Spring - Festival fund - closing operations, the market is expected to be highly volatile, and cautious operation is recommended this week [3][27] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and price changes of contracts such as EC2604 (1258.9, +6.88%), EC2605 (1304.0, +2.25%), EC2606 (1566.1, +4.34%) etc. were reported. The base spreads and the changes in trading volume and open interest were also provided [2][26] - **Month - to - Month Price Differences**: The month - to - month price differences between contracts (e.g., EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, EC2606 - 2610) and their daily and weekly changes were presented [2][26] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **European Line Spot**: In Week 7, the opening prices of shipping companies such as MSK (1950, - 100 MoM), PA (around 2000), MSC (2140), OA (2300) US dollars were reported, with a central price of 2130 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. From Week 8 - 9, MSK's opening price remained at 1950 US dollars, and other shipping companies' quotes were mostly unchanged. Last week, MSC led a price - increase announcement, followed by CMA, COSCO, and HPL, with the European line price expected to rise to 3000 - 3100 US dollars. On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for Week 10 was 1950 US dollars, unchanged from the previous period [4][28] - **Spot Index Changes**: The European line spot index (1657.94 points on 2026/2/9, - 7.49% MoM) and the SCFI index (1403 US dollars/TEU on 2026/2/6, - 1.06% MoM) were reported [2][26] 3.3 Relevant News - Trump stated on February 12 that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious." He also mentioned that he had a "very good" meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and whether an agreement is reached "ultimately depends on him." He emphasized that the agreement must be "very fair and very good" [5][29]

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.100, UK 4.452, France 3.363, Germany 2.777, Italy 3.383, Spain 3.150, Switzerland 0.268, Greece 3.375, Japan 2.232, Brazil 6.127, China 1.776, Australia 4.807, New Zealand 4.518 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies are: US 3.457, UK 3.595, Germany 2.055, Japan 1.303, Italy 2.191, China (1Y yield) 1.304, Australia 4.281 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.213, South Africa zar 15.961, Korean won 1439.100, Thai baht 30.932, Malaysian ringgit 3.903. The latest values of on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12 - month NDF are 6.902, 6.898, 6.946, and 6.778 respectively [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6832.760, Dow Jones Industrial Index 49451.980, NASDAQ 22597.150, Mexican stock index 70888.040, UK stock index 10402.440, France CAC 8340.560, Germany DAX 24852.690, Spanish stock index 17896.900, Russian stock index (not provided), Nikkei 57639.840, Hang Seng Index 27032.540, Shanghai Composite Index 4134.018, Taiwan stock index (not provided), South Korean stock index 5522.270, Indian stock index 8265.352, Thai stock index 1441.530, Malaysian stock index 1750.850, Australian stock index 9281.789, emerging - economy stock index 1570.440 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices are: Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 268.564, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 413.620 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - For A - shares, the closing price is 4134.02 with a 0.05% increase; for CSI 300, the closing price is 4719.58 with a 0.12% increase; for SSE 50, the closing price is 3079.73 with a 0.28% decrease; for ChiNext, the closing price is 3328.06 with a 1.32% increase; for CSI 500, the closing price is 8423.57 with a 1.17% increase [4] - The PE (TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.20, 11.70, 38.08, 27.29, and 19.28 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.03, - 0.06, 0.38, - 0.43, and 0.00 [4] - The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 and Germany DAX are - 0.44 and 2.41 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.13 and 0.01 [4] - The latest capital flows of A - shares, main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are 106.78, - 237.55, (not provided), 239.92, and - 109.58 respectively, and the 5 - day average values are 7.38, - 101.94, (not provided), 80.09, and - 1.88 respectively [4] Group 3: Transaction Amount and Other Data - The latest transaction amounts of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, and ChiNext are 21417.38, 4904.74, 1304.13, 4190.81, and 6134.82 respectively, with环比 changes of 1574.86, 570.45, 163.27, 148.57, and 531.84 [5] - The basis values of IF, IH, and IC are - 2.78, 3.27, and 25.23 respectively, with spreads of - 0.06%, 0.11%, and 0.30% [5] - The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 in Treasury bond futures are 108.59, 106.07, 108.60, and 106.15 respectively, with increases of 0.04%, 0.01%, 0.06%, and 0.03% [5] - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.4329%, 1.6029%, and 1.5800% respectively, with daily changes of - 17.00 BP, 0.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - The latest price of the Platts 61 index is 99.95, with a daily change of -0.25 and a weekly change of -2.30 [3]. - For Australian mainstream iron ore, Newman powder is priced at 759, unchanged daily and -7 weekly; PB powder is at 763 with the same daily and weekly changes; Mac powder is 757, also with 0 daily and -7 weekly changes; etc [3]. - Brazilian mainstream iron ore, such as Bahia Blend, has a price of 791, 0 daily change and -18 weekly change [3]. - Non - mainstream iron ore like Roy Hill powder is priced at 750, with 0 daily and -7 weekly changes [3]. - For lump ore and pellet premiums, PB lump is at 855, with a daily increase of 3 and a weekly increase of 10; U - ball is at 848, with a daily increase of 2 and a weekly increase of 5 [3]. - Domestic iron ore, like Tangshan iron ore concentrate, is priced at 963, with 0 daily change and -1 weekly change [3]. 3.2 Forward Market - In the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the i2701 contract is at 733.5, with 0 daily change and -7.5 weekly change; the i2605 contract is at 762.0, with - 0.5 daily change and -6.5 weekly change; the i2609 contract is at 745.0, with 0 daily change and -6.0 weekly change [3]. - In the Singapore Exchange, the FE01 contract is at 97.37, with 0.13 daily change and -2.96 weekly change; the FE05 contract is at 99.70, with 0.04 daily change and -2.70 weekly change; the FE09 contract is at 98.54, with 0.06 daily change and -3.03 weekly change [3]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - For the i2701 contract in the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the basis is 61.5, with 0.0 daily change and -0.4 weekly change [3]. - For the i2605 contract, the basis is 33.0, with 0.5 daily change and -1.4 weekly change [3]. - For the i2609 contract, the basis is 50.0, with 0.0 daily change and -1.9 weekly change [3]. - For the FE01 contract in the Singapore Exchange, the spread is -27.2, with 0.2 daily change and 6.4 weekly change [3]. - For the FE05 contract, the spread is -16.4, with 0.4 daily change and 5.4 weekly change [3]. - For the FE09 contract, the spread is -24.8, with 0.3 daily change and 7.4 weekly change [3].

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 5043.15 with a change of -34.70 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 83.52 with a change of -2.58 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 2160.00 with a change of 40.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1764.00 with a change of 31.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 62.84 with a change of -1.79 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 13219.00 with a change of 49.00 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest price is 96.91 with a change of -0.01 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest price is 1.19 with a change of 0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest price is 1.36 with a change of -0.00 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest price is 152.75 with a change of -0.52 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest price is 1.86 with a change of 0.00 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory's latest value is 11795.47 with a change of -72.65 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory's latest value is 349.63 with a change of 7.53 [1] - Gold ETF持仓's latest value is 1076.18 with a change of -5.14 [1] - Silver ETF持仓's latest value is 16174.18 with a change of -62.00 [1] - SGE Silver inventory's latest value is 504.96 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction's latest value is 2 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction's latest value is 2 with a change of 0.00 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to the Iran situation, with the monthly spread declining and the North Sea Brent basis falling to $1.005 per barrel. The first round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations lasted about six hours, and the second round is expected in the next few days. Netanyahu will meet with Trump next Wednesday to discuss the Iran issue. Iran stated it does not want a regional war. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased this week, with US commercial crude inventories declining by 3.455 million barrels and refined oil inventories by 5.553 million barrels due to the cold wave. Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arabian light crude for March. Singapore's refined oil inventories increased, while ARA's crude and refined oil inventories decreased. Domestic gasoline and diesel inventories increased. Short - term oil prices are still affected by the Iran situation, and the global crude oil supply - demand fundamentals in the first and second quarters remain in a surplus state, not supporting high valuations [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is skeptical about the quality of any agreement with Iran, covering nuclear issues, ballistic missiles, and Iran's proxy problems. He also said Trump might reach a good agreement with Iran [3][4] - The Trump administration secretly shipped about 6,000 Starlink terminals to Iran after the Iranian regime's crackdown on demonstrations last month to help anti - regime activists bypass the internet shutdown, though it's illegal in Iran [4] - The IEA lowered the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2026 to 850,000 barrels per day from 930,000 barrels per day in January's report, while keeping the large supply - surplus estimate basically unchanged. OPEC's research department predicted a growth of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] 2. EIA Report (02/06 Week) - US crude oil exports decreased by 308,000 barrels per day to 3.739 million barrels per day [14] - US domestic crude oil production increased by 498,000 barrels to 13.713 million barrels per day [14] - Commercial crude inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 8.53 million barrels to 429 million barrels, a 2.03% increase [14] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.827 million barrels per day, a 2.36% increase year - on - year [14] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 100,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, a 0.0% decrease [14] - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.805 million barrels per day, an increase of 604,000 barrels per day from the previous week [14] 3. Inventory - No detailed summary information provided other than mentioned in the weekly view 4. Weekly View - Crude oil prices were affected by the Iran situation, with monthly spreads and North Sea Brent basis declining. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations were held, and the second round is expected. Netanyahu will discuss the Iran issue with Trump. Iran doesn't want a regional war. Global oil inventories decreased, and Saudi Arabia adjusted oil prices. Singapore, ARA, and domestic inventories had different trends. Short - term oil prices are affected by the Iran situation, and the first - and second - quarter fundamentals are in surplus [5]