Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Date: June 30, 2025 [1] Price and Inventory Data Coal Prices - **Domestic Coking Coal**: The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1113.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 13.00, a monthly decrease of 37.00, and an annual decrease of 36.40%. The price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1170.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly decrease of 30.00, and an annual decrease of 38.42% [2]. - **Imported Coking Coal**: The latest price of Peak Downs is 188.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 1.00, a monthly decrease of 19.00, and an annual decrease of 84.50. The price of Goonyella is 192.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 1.00, a monthly decrease of 16.00, and an annual decrease of 80.50 [2]. - **Port and Warehouse Prices**: The latest price of Raw Coal Port Warehouse Pick - up Price is 731.00, with a daily increase of 7.00, a weekly increase of 13.00, a monthly decrease of 2.00, and an annual decrease of 45.04%. The price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1060.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 20.00, a monthly decrease of 80.00, and an annual decrease of 41.11% [2]. Futures Prices - **Futures Contracts**: The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 873.00, with a daily increase of 14.50, a weekly increase of 28.00, a monthly increase of 55.00, and an annual decrease of 48.28%. The price of Futures Contract 09 is 808.00, with a daily increase of 17.00, a weekly increase of 11.00, a monthly increase of 17.50, and an annual decrease of 47.45% [2]. Inventory Data - **Total Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory is 3939.89, with a weekly decrease of 105.51, a monthly decrease of 136.05, and an annual increase of 17.68% [2]. - **Sub - inventories**: Coal mine inventory is 463.09, with a weekly decrease of 36.06, a monthly decrease of 9.94, and an annual increase of 61.38%. Port inventory is 303.31, with a weekly decrease of 8.71, a monthly increase of 1.75, and an annual increase of 29.34%. Steel mill coking coal inventory is 774.66, with a weekly increase of 0.68, a monthly decrease of 24.09, and an annual increase of 2.70%. Coking plant coking coal inventory is 795.79, with a weekly decrease of 2.28, a monthly decrease of 69.94, and an annual decrease of 13.69% [2] Other Data - **Coking Capacity Utilization**: The latest coking capacity utilization rate is 73.35, with a weekly decrease of 0.22, a monthly decrease of 2.31, and an annual increase of 0.53% [2]. - **Coking Coke Inventory**: The latest coking coke inventory is 87.46, with a weekly increase of 0.07, a monthly increase of 0.16, and an annual increase of 0.18% [2]. - **Futures Basis and Spread**: The 05 basis is - 137.90, with a daily decrease of 14.50, a weekly decrease of 17.80, a monthly decrease of 113.16, and an annual increase of 78.27. The 5 - 9 spread is 65.00, with a daily decrease of 2.50, a weekly increase of 17.00, a monthly increase of 37.50, and an annual decrease of 0.57 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a tight balance with low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - The aluminum market has a short - term stable fundamental situation, with supply and demand expected to be balanced in July. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - The zinc market maintains a short - selling strategy, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. - The lead market is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in supply and weak demand in July [7]. - The tin market can hold long positions cautiously in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [10]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to be strong in the short term and will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the medium - to - long term [13]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue to face supply surplus and price pressure next week, but the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 45, the LME inventory decreased by 1,800 tons, and the LME cash - 3M spread changed significantly [1]. - **Market Situation**: The S232 investigation on copper is pending. The US has siphoned a large amount of electrolytic copper, leading to low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the investigation results are released, the market logic may change [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and the social inventory remained stable [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly in 1 - 5 months. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The market is in a balanced state in terms of supply and demand, and attention should be paid to low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the zinc price fluctuated upward. The domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the import TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton. The LME inventory decreased by 625 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to increase in July. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is also weak. The short - selling strategy remains unchanged, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 450, and the LME inventory increased by 78 tons [4]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the demand is weak. The inventory in overseas nickel plates is stable, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. Continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The price of waste stainless steel remained stable from June 23 - 27. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply decreased due to production cuts in some steel mills since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lead price rebounded from a low level. The LME inventory increased by 175 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has some problems, and the demand side is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17,200 [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the tin price fluctuated upward. The LME inventory increased by 60 tons [10]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year. Cautiously hold long positions in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The base difference strengthened, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [13]. - **Market Situation**: The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, it will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lithium carbonate price increased due to sentiment speculation. The base difference weakened, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to continue to be in surplus next week, and the price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on June 30, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5130, with a weekly increase of 30; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5150, with a weekly increase of 50; the export price of Tianjin 72 was 1020 US dollars, with a weekly decrease of 20 [2]. - For silicon - manganese alloy, on June 30, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon - manganese alloy at the production area was 5550, with a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 50; the latest price of Ningxia 6517 was 5500, with a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 100 [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production (with a capacity share of 95%), and monthly capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon - manganese alloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly production and the purchase volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [7]. Demand - The demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon - manganese alloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, such as the estimated and actual production of crude steel, the production and price of metal magnesium, the export volume of silicon ferroalloy, and the demand for silicon - manganese alloy [4][5][8]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [6]. - The inventory data of silicon - manganese alloy from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [8]. Cost and Profit - The cost - profit - related data of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 are presented, such as electricity prices in different regions, the market price and production profit of semi - coke, and the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [6]. - The cost - profit - related data of silicon - manganese alloy from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the prices of raw materials such as chemical coke and manganese ore, and the profit of silicon - manganese alloy in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and other regions [7][8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the geopolitical risk premium related to the tense situation in the Middle East fading, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market has shifted its focus to OPEC+'s production policy and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, and the US will hold talks with Iran next week. Fundamentally, global oil products were destocked in late June, with the destocking rate slightly exceeding expectations. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 583,600 barrels per day in the week of June 20th, reaching the lowest level in the same period in history. The WTI fundamentals are positive. However, OPEC+ is preparing to significantly increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in August, and the non-OPEC production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the upside potential of absolute prices is limited, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended for the price difference. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Iran's military stated that if aggression occurs again, Iran will launch a stronger counterattack [3] - OPEC+ is preparing to significantly increase production again in August, and Russia's attitude towards production increase has changed [4] - The US Energy Secretary evaded the question of "maximum pressure" on Iran and focused on reaching a peace agreement [4] - US President Trump said that if Iran can achieve peace, the sanctions on Iran will be lifted [5] 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 20th, US crude oil exports decreased by 91,000 barrels per day to 4.27 million barrels per day, while domestic production increased by 400 barrels to 13.435 million barrels per day. The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 1.39%. The strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 237,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 440,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, with the production of major refineries increasing and that of independent refineries decreasing. The sales-to-production ratios of gasoline and diesel in local refineries increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [5] 3. Weekly Viewpoints - As the geopolitical risk premium related to the Middle East tension fades, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market is now focused on OPEC+'s production policy and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, and the US will hold talks with Iran next week. Fundamentally, global oil products were destocked in late June, with the destocking rate slightly exceeding expectations. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 583,600 barrels per day in the week of June 20th, reaching the lowest level in the same period in history. The WTI fundamentals are positive. However, OPEC+ is preparing to significantly increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in August, and the non-OPEC production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the upside potential of absolute prices is limited, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended for the price difference. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view is presented in the provided documents. The content mainly consists of data on global asset markets, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On June 27, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies varied. For example, the US was 4.279%, the UK was 4.503%, and China was 1.646%. There were different changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For instance, the US had a latest change of 0.036, a one - week change of - 0.099, a one - month change of - 0.141, and a one - year change of 0.055 [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: The 2 - year Treasury yields also showed differences among major economies on June 27, 2025. The US was 3.740, the UK was 3.835, etc. Changes in different time periods were also provided, such as the US having a latest change of - 0.010, a one - week change of - 0.200, a one - month change of - 0.200, and a one - year change of - 1.010 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies had various changes. For example, against the Brazilian real, it was 5.487 on June 27, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.05%, a one - week change of - 0.49%, a one - month change of - 3.19%, and a one - year change of 0.95%. The RMB also had different changes in on - shore, off - shore, and other aspects [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Major economies' stock indices had different closing prices and changes on June 27, 2025. The Dow Jones was 6173.070, the S&P 500 was 43819.270, etc. Changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods were also presented. For example, the S&P 500 had a latest change of 1.00%, a one - week change of 3.82%, a one - month change of 3.80% [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different credit bond indices, including emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield, and US and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield, had different changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods [2][3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share closed at 3424.23 with a - 0.70% change, the CSI 300 closed at 3921.76 with a - 0.61% change, etc. [4] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 13.02 with a - 0.14 change, the PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 26.20 with a 0.13 change [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.46 with a - 0.05 change, and that of the German DAX was 2.27 with a - 0.10 change [4]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest A - share fund flow was - 459.27, and the 5 - day average was 100.21 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15411.01 with a - 420.50 change [4]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of IF was - 45.16 with a - 1.15% change, the basis of IH was - 27.57 with a - 1.02% change, and the basis of IC was - 36.73 with a - 0.63% change [4]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The closing price of T00 was 109.045 with a - 0.04% change, the closing price of TF00 was 106.265 with a - 0.02% change, etc. [5] - **Funding Rates**: R001 was 1.4600% with a - 46.00 BP change, R007 was 1.9201% with a 0.00 BP change, and SHIBOR - 3M was 1.6300% with a 0.00 BP change [5]

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/6/30 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 同比 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1153.65 | 0.00 | -54.61 | -129.81 | -40.84% 高炉开工率 | 90.83 | | 0.04 | 0.14 | 1.19% | | 河北准一湿熄 | 1375.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -150.00 | -37.21% 铁水日均产量 | 242.29 | | 0.11 | 0.38 | 1.19% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1330.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -130.00 | -40.36% 盘面05 | 1484 | 30.50 | 45.00 | 105.00 | -36.81% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1370.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -130.00 | -39.65% 盘面09 | 14 ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/06/30 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/06/23 | 3200 | 3070 | 3170 | 3180 | 3150 | 3190 | | 2025/06/24 | 3150 | 3060 | 3150 | 3170 | 3140 | 3180 | | 2025/06/25 | 3150 | 3050 | 3140 | 3150 | 3140 | 3170 | | 2025/06/26 | 3130 | 3050 | 3130 | 3130 | 3130 | 3140 | | 2025/06/27 | 3130 | 3090 | 3170 | 3130 | 3170 | 3190 | | 变化 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 40 | 50 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 ...

乖 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/30 | | | 指标 | 5/28 | 6/20 | 6/25 | 6/26 | 6/27 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11150 | 11630 | 11225 | 11195 | 11275 | 80 | -355 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 43664 | 13196 | 7623 | 36383 | 33472 | -2911 | 20276 | | | STET | | | | | | 96846 | -11484 | -9593 | | | | 主力合约成交量 | 168727 | 106439 | 37814 | 108330 | | | | | | | 仓单数量 | 9900 | 6630 | 6630 | 6530 | 7700 | 1170 | 1070 | | | | 虚实比 | 22.05 | તે તે તે આ ગામમ | 5.75 | 27.86 ...

蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 油 脂 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/30 民间出口商报告向墨西哥出口销售 民间出口商报告向墨西哥出口销售119,746吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付运。 阿根廷罗萨里奥谷物交易所周五表示，受计划中的关税上调影响，阿根廷出口商宣布 月迄今已出口610万吨大豆及 其行生品，较五年均值水平激增22%。 阿根廷总统JavierMilei领导的政府年初时曾暂时调降大豆出口关税，但该政策将于 月到期，届时大豆关税将从 26%上升至33%，豆油和豆粕关税税率均将由24.5%上调至31%。 年油菜籽种植面积下降 27日（周五），加拿大统计局公布主要大田作物种植面积报告。 大草原地区三省的油菜籽播种面积均缩减。2025年，农民报告种植了2,150万英亩油菜，较上一年下降了2.5%，这 可能是由于土壤湿度和持续的贸易问题等一系列因素造成的。在种植了加拿大一半以上油菜的萨斯喀彻温省，农民报告 种植了1,200万英亩油菜，较2024年下降了0.5%。在阿尔伯塔省，受访者报告称，2025年种植了620万英亩油菜，较上一 年下降了2.8%。而在马尼托巴省，农民报告播种了30 ...

淀粉：近期，供需端仍旧呈现下降态势。短期看，原料价格表现偏强或在未来一段时间继续支撑成品淀粉价格，但是受到行业库存偏高压制， 淀粉价格反弹幅度预计有限。从中长期视角来看，下游仍然处于淡季消费期，消费提货未有好转迹象，使得产业库存趋缓缓慢，仍旧制约淀粉 价格上行空间，等待利润小幅修复后继续空配远月合约。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/06/23 6100 6050 5865 379 417 599 27334 2025/06/24 6090 6040 5860 380 491 673 24762 2025/06/25 6110 6070 5860 353 448 630 24612 2025/06/26 6140 6080 5890 350 579 761 24302 2025/06/27 6150 6090 5890 358 538 721 23992 变化 10 10 0 8 -41 -40 -310 【行情分析】： 白糖：国际市场方面，受2024年干旱天气影响，巴西25/26榨季第一个月出现了单产和吨甘蔗出糖量下降的情况，不过5月上半月 ...