Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on January 23, 2026, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, equilibrium price ratios, and profit data [1][3][5] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 23, 2026, the domestic spot price was 100110, the LME spot price was 12762, with a ratio of 7.89; the domestic three - month price was 100900, the LME three - month price was 12845, with a ratio of 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.90, with a profit of - 498.98, and the profit for spot export was - 159.97 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24300, the LME spot price was 3163, with a ratio of 7.68; the domestic three - month price was 24445, the LME three - month price was 3200, with a ratio of 5.34. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33, with a profit of - 2042.42 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 23740, the LME spot price was 3110, with a ratio of 7.63; the domestic three - month price was 24100, the LME three - month price was 3129, with a ratio of 7.65. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, with a profit of - 2153.83 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 140200, the LME spot price was 17829, with a ratio of 7.86. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.00, with a profit of 427.18 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16900, the LME spot price was 1987, with a ratio of 8.51; the domestic three - month price was 17185, the LME three - month price was 2032, with a ratio of 11.95. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.55, with a profit of - 86.18 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were - 350, - 150, 70, and 50 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 607, 1113, 1627, and 2141 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 95, 140, 175, and 180 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225, 355, 486, and 616 [3] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 30, 15, 55, and 75 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 231, 364, 496, and 629 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 80, 125, 165, and 195 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 [3] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 320, - 140, 100, and 140 respectively [3] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 3280, and the theoretical spread was 8334 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 1020 and 670 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 632 and 1133 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 5 and 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 188 and 329 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 160 and 240 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 182 and 295 [3] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The cross - variety ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 4.13, 4.19, 5.87, 0.99, 1.40, and 0.70 respectively; in London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.97, 4.07, 6.31, 0.98, 1.55, and 0.63 respectively [5]

| 宛 亦安期货 | | --- | 废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/23 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/16 | 2186 | 2265 | 2054 | 2252 | 2217 | 2105 | | 2026/01/19 | 2186 | 2264 | 2054 | 2250 | 2217 | 2109 | | 2026/01/20 | 2185 | 2264 | 2054 | 2250 | 2217 | 2109 | | 2026/01/21 | 2185 | 2265 | 2052 | 2248 | 2217 | 2109 | | 2026/01/22 | 2184 | 2266 | 2052 | 2248 | 2217 | 2109 | | 环比 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容 ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 693.0 -1.0 -13.0 -1.0 -72.0 25省终端可用天数 17.8 -0.4 -2.1 -3.1 0.2 秦皇岛5000 606.0 -2.0 -14.0 15.0 -69.0 25省终端供煤 608.0 3.5 -0.5 -32.0 -14.8 广州港5500 795.0 0.0 -10.0 -15.0 -75.0 北方港库存 2486.0 -14.0 -93.0 -364.0 147.0 鄂尔多斯5500 490.0 0.0 -20.0 -15.0 -60.0 北方锚地船舶 85.0 -10.0 -17.0 36.0 20.0 大同5500 545.0 0.0 -20.0 -15.0 -85.0 北方港调入量 149.3 1.5 -0.9 -1.6 -2.6 榆林6000 670.0 0.0 -20.0 -20.0 -92.0 北方港吞吐量 126.6 -17.3 -48.8 -4.1 -32.3 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -45.0 CBCFI海运指数 678.4 12. ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: January 23, 2026 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [8] Report Core Content BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the BR main contract on January 22 was 12,270, with a daily increase of 355 and a weekly increase of 455 compared to January 16 [4]. - The open interest on January 22 was 96,682, with a daily increase of 2,956 and a weekly increase of 1,035 [4]. - The trading volume on January 22 was 182,757, with a daily increase of 54,699 and a weekly increase of 19,636 [4]. - The warehouse receipt quantity on January 22 was 26,920, with a daily increase of 1,290 and a weekly increase of 590 [4]. - The long - short ratio on January 22 was 17.96 [4]. Basis and Spread - The basis of butadiene rubber on January 22 was - 420, with a daily decrease of 155 and a weekly decrease of 322 [4]. - The basis of styrene - butadiene rubber on January 22 was - 70, with a daily decrease of 155 and a weekly decrease of 505 [4]. - The spread between 02 - 03 contracts on January 22 was - 80, with a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 20 [4]. - The spread between 03 - 04 contracts on January 22 was - 20, with a daily increase of 20 and no weekly change [4]. - The spread between RU - BR on January 22 was 3,580, with a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly decrease of 440 [4]. - The spread between NR - BR on January 22 was 465, with a daily decrease of 235 and a weekly decrease of 465 [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price on January 22 was 11,850, with a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 100 [4]. - The Transfar market price on January 22 was 11,850, with a daily increase of 250 and a weekly increase of 150 [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price on January 22 was 11,700, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 200 [4]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price on January 22 was 1,220, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100 [4]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price on January 22 was 1,750, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 75 [4]. Profit - The spot processing profit on January 22 was - 601, with a daily decrease of 157 and a weekly decrease of 232 [4]. - The import profit on January 22 was - 845, with a daily increase of 202 and a weekly decrease of 682 [4]. - The export profit on January 22 was 1,240, with a daily decrease of 176 and a weekly increase of 430 [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price on January 22 was 10,050, with a daily increase of 350 and a weekly increase of 325 [4]. - The Jiangsu market price on January 22 was 9,850, with a daily increase of 300 and a weekly increase of 300 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price on January 22 was 9,600, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4]. - The CFR China price on January 22 was 1,180, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 40 [4]. Profit - The ethylene cracking profit data was unavailable [4]. - The carbon four extraction profit on January 21 was 2,712 (data for January 22 was unavailable) [4]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on January 21 was 960 (data for January 22 was unavailable) [4]. - The import profit on January 22 was 414, with a daily increase of 301 and a weekly decrease of 11 [4]. - The export profit on January 22 was - 1,059, with a daily decrease of 88 and a weekly increase of 1,547 [4]. - The styrene - butadiene production profit on January 20 was 338 (data for January 21 and 22 was unavailable) [4]. - The ABS production profit data was mostly unavailable [4]. - The SBS production profit on January 20 was - 755 (data for January 21 and 22 was unavailable) [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - Various iron ore varieties' latest prices, daily and weekly changes, and import profits are presented. For example, Newman powder's latest price is 791, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of -19, and an import profit of 18.90 [1]. - Different regions' iron ore, including Australian mainstream, Brazilian mainstream, and non - mainstream varieties, are covered, such as PB powder, Mac powder, and Ba Hun [1]. Futures Market - Exchange contracts' latest prices, daily and weekly changes, and monthly spreads are given. For instance, the i2701 contract's latest price is 757.0, with a daily change of 4.5 and a weekly change of -75.5, and a monthly spread of 12.5 [1]. - Contracts from different exchanges like DCE and SGX are included, such as i - series and FE - series contracts [1]. Other Indicators - There are charts and data related to basis, internal - external spreads, and premiums like PB block/block premium and U - ball/pellet premium, although specific analysis is not provided in the text part [1].

| | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/23 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/01/16 | 2180 | 2290 | 2240 | 2450 | 9 | 10 | 390 | 2750 | 2800 | 100 | -70 | | 2026/01/19 | 2180 | 2290 | 2260 | 2440 | 9 | 0 | 366 | 2750 | 2820 | 100 | -70 | | 2026/01/20 | 2180 | 2280 | 2260 | 2430 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 2750 | 2820 | 105 | -70 | | 2026/01/21 | 2180 | 2280 | 2260 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly central value. The 02 basis was 138 (-41), the 02 - 03 spread was 70 (+15), and the 03 - 04 spread was -250 (-58). The price of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4440 (+40), East China at 4523 (+56), and South China at 5035 (+195). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after 4340 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 5977 lots (-241). The FEI and CP spreads rose, the MB spread fell, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB. The domestic and foreign PG - FEI reached 73.6 (-11.9), and PG - CP reached 69.6 (-8). The CIF discount for propane in East China, China was 77 (-2); the FOB discounts for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 37.75 (+3.75), 29 (-1), and 50.8 US dollars (+9.12) respectively. Freight rates increased, with the US Gulf - Japan at 139 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ spread was -27 (weekly +12). PDH profits significantly recovered but were still poor. Port inventories decreased by 4.9%, arrivals increased by 2.7%, and overall shipments increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and external releases decreased by 0.19%. PDH operating rate was 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there were expectations of multiple plant shutdowns in February (Juzhengyuan Phase II and Zhongjing Phase II), with the PDH operating rate expected to continue to decline. Overall, domestic and foreign valuations were high; the expected supply - demand pattern in the foreign market weakened, as the impact of the US fog was expected to be small, and although the Middle East was tight in the short term, it would be loose later; the combustion demand was coming to an end in February, and the PDH operating rate decreased. The domestic valuation was neutral, with 2 - 3 and 3 - 4 spreads in reverse arbitrage, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory Daily Data - From January 16 to January 22, 2026, the prices of South China LPG changed from 5035 to 4815, East China LPG from 4523 to 4428, Shandong LPG from 4440 to 4480, propane CFR South China from 597 to 610, propane CIF Japan from 549 to 595, CP forecast contract price from 527 to 537, Shandong ether - after C4 from 4340 to 4360, Shandong alkylate from 7150 to 7150, paper import profit from 254 to -65, and the main basis from 486 to 394. The daily changes on January 22 were -25, -39, 10, 6, 24, 6, 30, 20, -74, -104 respectively [1] Daily View - On Thursday, the 02 - 03 spread was 67 (+2), the 03 - 04 spread was -275 (-11), and the 02 - 04 spread was -208 (-9). At 9:30 PM on Thursday, the FEI and CP paper prices reached 551.19 and 534.19 US dollars respectively [1] Weekly View - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, with the weekly central value slightly shifting upward. The 02 basis decreased by 41, the 02 - 03 spread increased by 15, and the 03 - 04 spread decreased by 58. Civil gas prices increased, and the cheapest deliverable decreased by 50. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 241. The FEI and CP spreads rose, the MB spread fell, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB. The domestic - foreign spreads decreased, the CIF discount in East China decreased, the FOB discounts in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States changed, the freight rate increased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread increased week - on - week. PDH profits recovered but were still poor. Port inventories decreased by 4.9%, arrivals increased by 2.7%, and overall shipments increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and external releases decreased by 0.19%. The PDH operating rate decreased by 2.54 pct, and there were expectations of multiple plant shutdowns in February, with the PDH operating rate expected to continue to decline. Overall, domestic and foreign valuations were high, the expected supply - demand pattern in the foreign market weakened, the domestic valuation was neutral, with 2 - 3 and 3 - 4 spreads in reverse arbitrage, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Coke Daily Report [1] - Date: January 22, 2026 [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Price Information - **Shanxi Standard First Wet Quenching Coke**: The latest price is 1430.97, with no daily or weekly changes, a monthly change of -54.61, and a year-on-year change of -11.18% [2] - **Hebei Standard First Dry Quenching Coke**: The latest price is 1680.00, with no daily or weekly changes, a monthly change of -55.00, and a year-on-year change of 7.69% [2] - **Shandong Standard First Dry Quenching Coke**: The latest price is 1625.00, with no daily or weekly changes, a monthly change of -35.00, and a year-on-year change of -9.22% [2] - **Jiangsu Standard First Dry Quenching Coke**: The latest price is 1645.00, with no daily or weekly changes, a monthly change of -55.00, and a year-on-year change of -10.11% [2] - **Inner Mongolia Second - Grade Coke**: The latest price is 1130.00, with no daily or weekly changes, a monthly change of -50.00, and a year-on-year change of -13.08% [2] Group 3: Production and Capacity Information - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate**: The latest rate is 85.48, with a weekly change of -0.56, a monthly change of 0.55, and a year-on-year change of 1.47% [2] - **Daily Average Hot Metal Output**: The latest output is 228.01, with a weekly change of -1.49, a monthly change of 1.46, and a year-on-year change of 1.57% [2] - **Coking Capacity Utilization Rate**: The latest rate is 71.61, with a weekly change of 0.87, a monthly change of -0.31, and a year-on-year change of -1.28% [2] - **Daily Average Coke Output**: The latest output is 50.40, with a weekly change of 0.65, a monthly change of -0.90, and a year-on-year change of -5.41% [2] Group 4: Inventory Information - **Coking Plant Inventory**: The latest inventory is 40.61, with a weekly change of -3.56, a monthly change of -11.29, and a year-on-year change of -39.01% [2] - **Port Inventory**: The latest inventory is 188.07, with a weekly change of 3.97, a monthly change of 12.42, and a year-on-year change of 1.87% [2] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The latest inventory is 650.33, with a weekly change of 4.60, a monthly change of 16.60, and a year-on-year change of -4.83% [2] - **Steel Mill Inventory Days**: The latest number of days is 11.97, with a weekly change of -0.05, a monthly change of 0.25, and a year-on-year change of -11.79% [2] Group 5: Futures Information - **Futures Contract 05**: The latest price is 1674, with a daily change of -19.50, a weekly change of -69.50, a monthly change of -56.00, and a year-on-year change of -5.26% [2] - **Futures Contract 09**: The latest price is 1748, with a daily change of -21.50, a weekly change of -70.50, a monthly change of -55.50, and a year-on-year change of -4.48% [2] - **Futures Contract 01**: The latest price is 1861, with a daily change of -16.00, a weekly change of 361.00, a monthly change of 272.50, and a year-on-year change of 0.59% [2] - **05 Basis**: The latest basis is 52.85, with a daily change of 19.50, a weekly change of 69.50, a monthly change of -50.69, and a year-on-year change of -52.75% [2] - **09 Basis**: The latest basis is -21.15, with a daily change of 21.50, a weekly change of 70.50, a monthly change of -51.19, and a year-on-year change of -63.75% [2] - **01 Basis**: The latest basis is -134.15, with a daily change of 16.00, a weekly change of -361.00, a monthly change of -379.19, and a year-on-year change of -156.75% [2] - **5 - 9 Spread**: The latest spread is 187.00, with a daily change of 3.50, a weekly change of 430.50, a monthly change of 328.50, and a year-on-year change of 104.00% [2] - **9 - 1 Spread**: The latest spread is -74.00, with a daily change of 2.00, a weekly change of 1.00, a monthly change of -0.50, and a year-on-year change of -11.00% [2] - **1 - 5 Spread**: The latest spread is -113.00, with a daily change of -5.50, a weekly change of -431.50, a monthly change of -328.00, and a year-on-year change of -93.00% [2]

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/01/1 5 801 2247 2243 2345 - 2315 2435 - 322 - -25 - 2026/01/1 6 801 2230 2231 2345 - 2315 2435 264 322 -16 -25 - 2026/01/1 9 801 2217 2203 2355 - 2315 2410 264 322 -40 -25 - 2026/01/2 0 801 2208 2178 2355 - 2285 2388 262 322 -29 0 - 2026/01/2 1 801 2213 2200 2355 - 2285 2385 - - - 0 - 日度变化 0 5 22 0 - 0 -3 - - - 0 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MTO利润卡住了上限，除非其余下游涨价，目前看来偏空或卖看 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - For copper, the price pulled back in the second half of the week, and the market sentiment cooled. In the short - term, negative factors are released, but the price is expected to rise in the medium - term as the fundamentals feature limited supply and increasing demand [1] - For aluminum, the basis and downstream processing fees are low, with continuous inventory accumulation. Domestic demand has short - term support, and overseas active restocking may support the price [1] - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between short - term policies and fundamentals [3] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short - term [3] - For lead, the price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17600 next week [5] - For tin, the price fluctuates greatly, and is affected by capital sentiment. Short - term volatility may decline, and attention can be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [8] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is balanced and loose. The price is expected to oscillate with cost in the short - term and at the bottom of the cycle in the medium - to long - term [11] - For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply - demand is close to balance. The absolute price is affected by futures market expectations and sentiment, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur [13] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: The copper price pulled back in the second half of the week. The LME inventory increased by 3100, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2612 [1] - **Market Analysis**: US tariff issues and high inventories in the US triggered concerns. In the short - term, negative factors are released, and the inventory may accumulate faster before the Spring Festival but decline quickly after the festival. The medium - term outlook is positive [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The aluminum price declined. The LME inventory increased by 24175, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [1] - **Market Analysis**: The basis and processing fees are low, and the inventory is accumulating. Domestic demand has short - term support from photovoltaic, and overseas active restocking may support the price [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: The zinc price decreased. The LME inventory decreased by 450, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [2] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is affected by TC decline and smelter operations, and demand is weak. The market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [2] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: The nickel price dropped. The LME inventory decreased by 72 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreased slightly, demand is weak, and there is a game between short - term policies and fundamentals [3] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: The stainless steel price declined slightly. The inventory decreased slightly from a high level [3] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs. The price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short - term [3] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: The lead price oscillated at a high level. The inventory increased by 1.3 tons to 3.25 tons [5] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17600 next week [5] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: The tin price fluctuated greatly. The LME inventory increased by 250 [8] - **Market Analysis**: The price is affected by capital sentiment. Short - term volatility may decline, and attention can be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [8] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of different grades changed, and the warehouse receipts increased by 384 [11] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand are balanced and loose. The price is expected to oscillate with cost in the short - term and at the bottom of the cycle in the medium - to long - term [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: The price fluctuated. The warehouse receipts increased by 975 [13] - **Market Analysis**: The short - term supply - demand is close to balance. The absolute price is affected by futures market expectations and sentiment, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur [13]