浙商证券研究所提醒您一本次电话会已经面向浙商证券研究所签约的机构投资者以及受邀客户第三方嘉宾发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见均不构成对具体证券在具体价位具体时点具体市场表现的判断或投资建议 2、嘉宾所说信息或所表述的意见均不构成浙商证券研究所研究观点如果嘉宾发布的观点和浙商研究所发布的观点有分歧或不一致这也仅作为一种不同的研究视角供投资者参考3、依照监管要求和保密原则,未经合法授权,严禁录音、记录、转发 感谢您的理解和配合若本次交流内容不慎流出或涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留追究法律责任的权利再次感谢您对这张证券的理解和配合谢谢下面有请楚江老师发言谢谢 各位投资者大家下午好非常高兴有机会为大家来分享一下我们港股互联网方面的一些观点 然后因为最近两周整个港股特别是港股互联网有一个非常大的涨幅那么在本次电话会我们我这边主要回答两个问题就是第一个就是在这个位置互联网行情是否可持续那么第二个就是在这个位置应该是去做一个怎样的配置那么关于第一个问题我这边认为本轮互联网行情是具有坚实的基本面流动性和固执的支撑 也就是说展望今年后半程伴随着国内宏观的温和复苏以及海外美联储降息那么这两个关键点就是全年行情可持续的 ...

它的影响的拖累效益也是在逐步的减弱有这几个因素那我们再来看市场的预期市场预期这一块我们用的是彭博数据库那彭博数据库这里面的数据显示整个以恒生指数为代表的港股的宽基指数它的24年一致EPS预期从3月的中下旬开始就呈现了一个明显的回升 所以我们觉得孙子端港股这边有一个很大的支撑就是我们宏观经济要比预期想得要好那这里面我们可以分行业看分行业看呢我们从两个口径一个呢就是24年的 预测EPS增速预期 再就是什么呢 再就是二五年的预期EPS增速那二四和二五年都比较快的领域有三个一个就是资讯科技 资讯科技就是我们说的PMT再就是什么呢 再就是地产建筑再就是材料 材料其实就是资源品 所以港股的话这三大板块整个24年景气跟25年的预期景气增速是比较靠前是分行业的情况那接下来我们再来看分五端分五端呢一个我们看的是流动性另外一个看的就是风险溢价那我们先来看流动性流动性的话我们找到一个数据口径比较有代表性是什么呢就是国际风险机构 持股港股的数量这个数量从4月20号之后是有明显增加迹象的那它背后的原因有两个第一呢就是最近分流因为我们看到最近海外股市特别是比如前期表现特别强劲的日本股市从3月以来一直是一个持续调整的状态所以这种背景之下港 ...

27 15. 4 -2. 0 4. 3 -1. 9 28 |城镇调查失业率: 2024-04-16 -0.1 5. 2 5. 3 5. 2 5. 3 5.6 5. 5 29 31个大城市: 2024-04-16 0. 0 5.1 5. 1 4. 9 5. 5 5.7 5. 8 30 #VALUE ! - 16-24岁人口: 2023-07-17 l 19. 6 18. 1 17.3 l 2024-03 2024-02 2024-01 2023-03 2023-02 2023-01 单位:% 31 公布日期 32 制造业PMI: 1. 7 49. 2 50. 1 2024-03-31 50. 8 49. 1 51. 9 52. 6 2024-03-31 3 3 2. 4 51. 3 56. 7 新订单: 34 4. 0 49.0 54. 1 52. 2 54. 6 49. 8 50. 9 2024-03-31 53.0 49.0 53. 6 35 |原材料库存: 0.7 48. 1 47. 4 48. 3 49. 8 49. 6 36 从业人员： 47.5 47.7 0. 6 48.1 47. 6 50. 2 ...

周期不同阶段因为有可能会出现第二种场景就是说因为你发现这个叉烧行业不管是安徽合力还是航叉它其实已经紧缺了这是第三年你看它的股价也是涨了三年了那么你会发现其实温哥华的其他的几个公司 不管是混凝土机械也好这个启动机也好 挖掘机也好那么这些公司 龙头公司最近两年开始上岗其实也是这两年开始因此有一种情形可能是周期的发展阶段那么就是说它这个复苏比他们更好因为别的行业就很大程度上是受到了房地产的拖累房地他们是导致这两个行业 就是说过去可能是在上一轮周期可能是这样 奥运是他们的1.5到2倍现在是反过来 反过来那就是说可能你看到面对的因子是不一样的 是地产那么我们的一个判断是什么呢?其实这两方面的原因都有就金融格局上其实就是说确实差车双寡头 这样一个竞争格局其实就是三卦头通常我们猜经济学上我们认为这种格局是比较相对稳定的你包括混凝土机械的那个三星和中联这个领域在这个品类上现在已经形成了这样一种默契这是一个我觉得这是一个很重要的原因另外呢从周期的位置上来看我们刚才说了就是有的因为但是反过来说如果地产对于这个供应机器行业的拖累就边际上 便利上就是结束 不会再下滑了政治有可能比如说从慢慢的就是说如果对地产的政策从过去的不断的收缩转 ...

Summary of the Research Report on Innovative Pharmaceuticals and Industry Chain Industry Overview - **Industry Definition**: Innovative drugs are defined as drugs with independent intellectual property patents. The CXO (CRO/CMO/CDMO) sector focuses on various segments of innovative drug research and development, providing high-quality, highly regulated services throughout the R&D, clinical, commercialization, and production phases of innovative drugs [3][10][15]. Key Points Industry Rating - **Rating**: The innovative pharmaceutical industry is rated positively, with a favorable outlook for growth [1]. Market Dynamics - **Market Size**: The global pharmaceutical market is projected to reach a trillion-dollar scale, driven by aging populations, evolving disease spectrums, and rising consumer spending [32]. - **Demand Evolution**: The demand for innovative drugs is expected to evolve further post-2030, influenced by changing disease patterns and increased healthcare needs [32]. Investment Logic - **Domestic Innovative Drug Companies**: Key players include HengRui Medicine, BeiGene, and others, focusing on strong independent R&D capabilities and internationalization [13][15]. - **CXO Sector**: The CXO industry is experiencing growth due to increased R&D investments from innovative drug companies, with a projected annual growth rate of 7.6% from 2020 to 2025 [39][44]. Competitive Landscape - **CXO Market**: The CXO market is characterized by high competition, with major players like WuXi AppTec and Tigermed leading the market. The industry is seeing a shift towards higher value-added services [19][72]. - **API Market**: Chinese API companies hold a strong global position due to cost advantages and a well-established chemical industry [75]. Financial Performance - **R&D Investment**: In H1 2023, 31 innovative drug companies reported a total R&D investment of 28.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [82]. - **Sales Growth**: The sales revenue of 14 commercialized innovative drug companies reached 19.3 billion in H1 2023, a 61% increase year-on-year, indicating strong commercial potential [82]. Challenges and Risks - **Profitability Concerns**: The CXO sector faced a significant decline in profitability, with average net profit growth dropping by 128% year-on-year in Q3 2023 due to market conditions and increased costs [87][90]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The industry is subject to stringent regulatory requirements, which can impact operational efficiency and cost structures [10][20]. Emerging Trends - **Technological Advancements**: The shift from small molecule drugs to biologics and gene therapies is reshaping the treatment landscape, with a focus on immunotherapy and personalized medicine [36]. - **New Demand**: There is a growing demand for innovative treatments addressing chronic diseases and improving quality of life, such as obesity and autoimmune disorders [68]. Future Outlook - **Commercialization Potential**: Several innovative drug companies are expected to achieve significant commercialization breakthroughs between 2024 and 2025, expanding their product portfolios and market presence [82][86]. Conclusion The innovative pharmaceutical industry is poised for growth, driven by increasing R&D investments, evolving market demands, and technological advancements. However, companies must navigate profitability challenges and regulatory hurdles to capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Summary of the Conference Call on Home Appliances Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on the home appliances industry, particularly the valuation differences between Chinese white goods giants and overseas leaders [1] Key Points and Arguments Stability and Scarcity as Valuation Premium Foundations - Stability: The core indicator of shareholder returns is ROE, reflecting low profit volatility and stable cash returns. AO Smith shows a significant valuation premium compared to peers: - AO Smith diversifies its revenue sources by expanding overseas, resulting in a low correlation (R² = 0.07) with the U.S. real estate cycle [2] - The impact of metal raw material prices on operating costs is significant (R² = 0.4), but AO Smith, with nearly 40% market share in North American water heaters, can mitigate this through product structure adjustments [2] - AO Smith has maintained a consistent buyback and dividend ratio of around 100% of net profit since 2013, enhancing shareholder returns during performance slowdowns [2] - Scarcity: The uniqueness of business models and brand positioning creates barriers against competition, allowing high-barrier companies to better navigate cycles: - Daikin has established a global production and service system through acquisitions, such as the purchase of Goodman in 2014, leading to an 8.6% CAGR in North American revenue from 2014 to 2021 [2] - Daikin's high-end brand positioning has resulted in a strong market presence, maintaining a 13% share in the Chinese central air conditioning market [2] High and Stable ROE of Chinese Home Appliance Leaders - The home appliance industry exhibits stable demand, with companies reducing the correlation between revenue growth and real estate cycles through exports, price increases, and inventory adjustments. The influence of copper prices on the operating costs of the three major white goods leaders has significantly decreased since 2015 [3] - High standardization of home appliance products allows leading companies to create entry barriers through economies of scale. Despite price sensitivity among consumers, the oligopolistic market structure ensures stable profitability for leading firms [3] - The home appliance sector has sufficient cash to maintain ROE levels, with cash assets constituting 35% of total assets in 2022, indicating a mature and stable industry [3] Valuation Discrepancies Between Chinese and Overseas Leaders - Chinese appliance companies are in a capacity-building phase overseas, leading to higher capital expenditures. The uncertainty in export OEMs necessitates significant upfront investments for local capacity and brand development [4] - The domestic ice washing market is stable, while the air conditioning sector faces cyclical changes. The ice washing market is dominated by Haier, with a shift from volume to price growth, while the air conditioning market is characterized by price competition that can hinder profit growth [4] - A-shares have historically favored growth, but as market demands for certainty increase, the valuation of white goods may improve based on ROE [4] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, suggesting that the high and stable ROE of white goods leaders justifies higher valuations. Key factors include: - Ongoing expansion of self-owned brands overseas, with future capital expenditures tied to market share leadership [7] - Despite cyclical demand and competition in the air conditioning sector, the long-term stability of the market structure supports the industry [7] - As the economy transitions, the market's focus on certainty may enhance the valuation of white goods [7] - The DDM three-stage model suggests a PE valuation midpoint of 17x for Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, with a recommendation to focus on these companies and consider Gree Electric [7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic uncertainties, intensified industry competition, and deviations in measurement results [8] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of ROE in determining the valuation of home appliance companies, with a stable demand and oligopolistic market structure supporting high and stable ROE [7] - The analysis indicates that the valuation of Chinese white goods may align with the PEG=1 principle, yet it remains lower than that of overseas counterparts [4]

证券研究报告 华为智选，大有可为 ——华为汽车产业链深度报告 2024年4月21日 ...

4642 4140 114 信贷当月新增 14500 居民部门贷款 9406 短期贷款 3228 341 6348 4516 2024-04-12 27000 38600 10815 9800 2024-04-12 11100 33100 -2500 -4687 2024-04-12 0. 5 9. 4 -5.7 0. 4 7.9 M1同比增速 1. 2 8.7 8. 3 公布日期 2. 1 1. 8 -0. 9 6. 2 -3.6 2024-03-09 0. 7 1. 2 衣着 0.0 1. 4 居住 -0.2 0. 2 0. 3 -0.1 1. 5 -0.5 -5.1 2024-04-12 11. 0 6. 7 5. 8 12. 6 12. 9 CPI: 同比 0.7 2024-03-09 -3.7 食品烟酒 4. 7 -2. 0 2024-03-09 1. 1 0. 5 1. 6 0.5 -2. 2 -0.4 2. 0 2024-03-09 3. 9 2. 4 医疗保健 2024-03-09 1.0 其他用品及服务 2. 9 3. 1 核心CPI 0. 6 2. 8 0.1 教育文化和娱乐 1. 3 2 ...

浙商证券研究所提醒您一本次电话会已经面向浙商证券研究所签约的机构投资者以及受邀客户第三方嘉宾发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见均不构成对具体证券在具体价位具体时点具体市场表现的判断或投资建议 2、嘉宾所说信息或所表述的意见均不构成浙商证券研究所研究观点如果嘉宾发布的观点和浙商研究所发布的观点有分歧或不一致这也仅作为一种不同的研究视角供投资者参考3、依照监管要求和保密原则,未经合法授权,严禁录音、记录、转发 感谢您的理解和配合若本次交流内容不慎流出或涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留追究法律责任的权利再次感谢您对这张证券的理解和配合谢谢 各位投资者下午好我是浙商交易分析师吕易今天我汇报的主题仍然是航空的五一预售啊因为五一假期进入倒计时了那么市场会比较关心五一假期出行的表现截至到这周来看我们跟踪的数据表现出来的一个趋势是相比19年同期是量价起升的表现那如果说量和价的这个涨幅能够延续下去的话我们是认为今年的五一 又会是杭斯特别赚钱的一个假期 接下来我们具体分享一下预售的一个数据情况那从我们这边对于五一假期机票预售的跟踪情况来看相比19年是量价其升的趋势整体表现是非常不错那么截止到这周出票量已经是到了25%左右 ...

紧贴节奏的前瞻洞察独树一帜的研究视角这商早八点谈钱最优选 各位听众朋友们早上好今天是4月22号星期一这商早8点又和您如约相见了今天的节目主要有以下内容首先是大势气象台金工首席陈奥林将为您分享极致保守的选择红利紧接着是观点直通车机械国防首席王华军将为您分享人形机器人AI驱动未来以来 医药分析师郭双喜将为您带来创新药靶点系列研究之一TSLP自免滚烫低油火热最后的遮伤好身阴教育与人力资源首席段连将为您分享K12教培转型郝景正凡春未半小桃初放蝶仍兮精彩内容不容错过宏观指方向策略点趋势下面进入今天的大势气象台 今天我们邀请到了浙山证券金工首席陈奥林为各位听众分享极致保守的选择红利陈老师早上好 主持人好各位投资者朋友们大家早上好我是浙上金工道理好的欢迎陈老师首先我们想了解一下您的核心观点是什么核心观点是财报季盈利预期下修美债收益率上行分子分母两端的双控压力之下我们认为未来市场将维持正当的走势极致保守的这种心态之下红利风格将会持续走强行业比较的层面我们看好景气上行的家电ETF黄金ETF机械ETF以及有色ETF 好的陈老师那我们想了解一下目前市场的核心矛盾是什么呢首先核心矛盾我们总结为八个字就是全球通胀极致保守要在过去一段时 ...